Area-based conservation in the twenty-first century.

Humanity will soon define a new era for nature-one that seeks to transform decades of underwhelming responses to the global biodiversity crisis. Area-based conservation efforts, which include both protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures, are likely to extend and diversify. However, persistent shortfalls in ecological representation and management effectiveness diminish the potential role of area-based conservation in stemming biodiversity loss. Here we show how the expansion of protected areas by national governments since 2010 has had limited success in increasing the coverage across different elements of biodiversity (ecoregions, 12,056 threatened species, 'Key Biodiversity Areas' and wilderness areas) and ecosystem services (productive fisheries, and carbon services on land and sea). To be more successful after 2020, area-based conservation must contribute more effectively to meeting global biodiversity goals-ranging from preventing extinctions to retaining the most-intact ecosystems-and must better collaborate with the many Indigenous peoples, community groups and private initiatives that are central to the successful conservation of biodiversity. The long-term success of area-based conservation requires parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity to secure adequate financing, plan for climate change and make biodiversity conservation a far stronger part of land, water and sea management policies.

Some Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Dombi Heronian Mean Operators and their Application for Evaluating the Ecological Value of Forest Ecological Tourism Demonstration Areas.

With China's sustained economic development and constant increase in national income, Chinese nationals' tourism consumption rate increases. As a major Chinese economic development engine, the domestic tourism industry has entered a transition period operation pattern featured by diversified products. Among them, as a new hot spot of the tourism industry in China, ecological tourism has enjoyed rapid development, with great potential. Thus, the ecological value evaluation of forest ecological tourism demonstration areas is very important to the domestic tourism industry. In this paper, we propose some Dombi Heronian mean operators with interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IVIFNs). Then, two MADM (multiple attribute decision making) methods are proposed based on IVIFWDHM (interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy weighted Dombi Heronian mean) and IVIFWDGHM (interval-valued intuitionistic weighted Dombi geometric Heronian mean) operators. Finally, we gave an experimental case for evaluating the ecological value of forest ecological tourism demonstration area to show the proposed decision methods.

Inference in MCMC step selection models.

Habitat selection models are used in ecology to link the spatial distribution of animals to environmental covariates and identify preferred habitats. The most widely used models of this type, resource selection functions, aim to capture the steady-state distribution of space use of the animal, but they assume independence between the observed locations of an animal. This is unrealistic when location data display temporal autocorrelation. The alternative approach of step selection functions embed habitat selection in a model of animal movement, to account for the autocorrelation. However, inferences from step selection functions depend on the underlying movement model, and they do not readily predict steady-state space use. We suggest an analogy between parameter updates and target distributions in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, and step selection and steady-state distributions in movement ecology, leading to a step selection model with an explicit steady-state distribution. In this framework, we explain how maximum likelihood estimation can be used for simultaneous inference about movement and habitat selection. We describe the local Gibbs sampler, a novel rejection-free MCMC scheme, use it as the basis of a flexible class of animal movement models, and derive its likelihood function for several important special cases. In a simulation study, we verify that maximum likelihood estimation can recover all model parameters. We illustrate the application of the method with data from a zebra.

Commentary: EPA's proposed expansion of dose-response analysis is a positive step towards improving its ecological risk assessment.

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) has recently proposed changes to strengthen the transparency of its pivotal regulatory science policy and procedures. In this context, the US EPA aims to enhance the transparency of dose-response data and models, proposing to consider for the first time non-linear biphasic dose-response models. While the proposed changes have the potential to lead to markedly improved ecological risk assessment compared to past and current approaches, we believe there remain open issues for improving the quality of ecological risk assessment, such as the consideration of adaptive, dynamic and interactive effects. Improved risk assessment including adaptive and dynamic non-linear models (beyond classic threshold models) can enhance the quality of regulatory decisions and the protection of ecological health. We suggest that other countries consider adopting a similar scientific-regulatory posture with respect to dose-response modeling via the inclusion of non-linear biphasic models, that incorporate the dynamic potential of biological systems to adapt (i.e., enhancing positive biological endpoints) or maladapt to low levels of stressor agents.

The performance and potential of protected areas.

Originally conceived to conserve iconic landscapes and wildlife, protected areas are now expected to achieve an increasingly diverse set of conservation, social and economic objectives. The amount of land and sea designated as formally protected has markedly increased over the past century, but there is still a major shortfall in political commitments to enhance the coverage and effectiveness of protected areas. Financial support for protected areas is dwarfed by the benefits that they provide, but these returns depend on effective management. A step change involving increased recognition, funding, planning and enforcement is urgently needed if protected areas are going to fulfil their potential.

Ecological network analysis for economic systems: growth and development and implications for sustainable development.

The quantification of growth and development is an important issue in economics, because these phenomena are closely related to sustainability. We address growth and development from a network perspective in which economic systems are represented as flow networks and analyzed using ecological network analysis (ENA). The Beijing economic system is used as a case study and 11 input-output (I-O) tables for 1985-2010 are converted into currency networks. ENA is used to calculate system-level indices to quantify the growth and development of Beijing. The contributions of each direct flow toward growth and development in 2010 are calculated and their implications for sustainable development are discussed. The results show that during 1985-2010, growth was the main attribute of the Beijing economic system. Although the system grew exponentially, its development fluctuated within only a small range. The results suggest that system ascendency should be increased in order to favor more sustainable development. Ascendency can be augmented in two ways: (1) strengthen those pathways with positive contributions to increasing ascendency and (2) weaken those with negative effects.

Global conservation outcomes depend on marine protected areas with five key features.

In line with global targets agreed under the Convention on Biological Diversity, the number of marine protected areas (MPAs) is increasing rapidly, yet socio-economic benefits generated by MPAs remain difficult to predict and under debate. MPAs often fail to reach their full potential as a consequence of factors such as illegal harvesting, regulations that legally allow detrimental harvesting, or emigration of animals outside boundaries because of continuous habitat or inadequate size of reserve. Here we show that the conservation benefits of 87 MPAs investigated worldwide increase exponentially with the accumulation of five key features: no take, well enforced, old (>10 years), large (>100 km(2)), and isolated by deep water or sand. Using effective MPAs with four or five key features as an unfished standard, comparisons of underwater survey data from effective MPAs with predictions based on survey data from fished coasts indicate that total fish biomass has declined about two-thirds from historical baselines as a result of fishing. Effective MPAs also had twice as many large (>250 mm total length) fish species per transect, five times more large fish biomass, and fourteen times more shark biomass than fished areas. Most (59%) of the MPAs studied had only one or two key features and were not ecologically distinguishable from fished sites. Our results show that global conservation targets based on area alone will not optimize protection of marine biodiversity. More emphasis is needed on better MPA design, durable management and compliance to ensure that MPAs achieve their desired conservation value.

Impact of GDP, spending on R&D, the number of universities and scientific journals on research publications in environmental sciences in the Middle East.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess the impact of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), spending on Research and Development (R&D), the number of universities and scientific journals on the published research documents, citable documents, citations per document and H-index in environmental sciences in the Middle East countries. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All the 16 Middle East countries were included in the study. Information regarding the GDP, spending on R&D, the total number of universities and indexed journals was collected. Total number of research documents (papers), citable documents, citations per document and H-index in environmental sciences during the period 1996-2011 was recorded. The study used the World Bank, SCI-mago/Scopus, Web of Science, Journal Citation Reports (Thomson Reuters) as the main sources of information. RESULTS: The mean GDP per capita of all the Middle East countries amounted to 18 125.49±5386.28 US$, spending on R&D was 0.63±0.28 US$, the number of universities equaled 36.56±11.33 and mean ISI indexed journals amounted to 8.25±3.93. The mean number of research documents published in environmental sciences in the Middle East countries during the period 1996-2011 was 2202.12±883.98; citable documents: 2156.87±865.09; citations per document: 8.74±0.73; and the H-index: 35.37±6.17. There was a positive correlation between the money spent on R&D and citations per documents (r = 0.6, p = 0.01), H-Index (r = 0.6, p = 0.01); the number of universities and a total of research documents (r = 0.65, p = 0.006), citable documents (r = 0.65, p = 0.006), H-Index (r = 0.50, p = 0.04), as well as ISI indexed journals and total research documents (r = 0.94, p = 0.0001), citable documents (r = 0.94, p = 0.0001), H-Index (r = 0.73, p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The Middle East countries which spend more on R&D and which have a large number of universities and ISI indexed journals are likely to produce more significant volume of research papers in the field of environmental science.

Association between ozone and emergency department visits: an ecological study.

The objective of this study was to examine the association between the levels of ozone concentration and emergency department (ED) visits for respiratory and cardiovascular conditions in Maryland in the United States by considering temporal and spatial characteristics, including socioeconomic status (SES), as a covariate. This study used multiple large datasets derived from government agencies for data of ozone, weather, census, and ED visits to represent Maryland in the summer of 2002. Block kriging was used to estimate the daily ozone and weather factors by ZIP code-day level. Results from a negative binomial regression showed that a 10-ppb increment of the 8-hr ozone level as a three-day average was associated with increased respiratory ED visits by 2.4%, after adjusting for weather factors, SES, and day of the week. For cardiovascular ED visits, an increment of 10 ppb of the 8-hr ozone level as a five-day average increased by 3.5%.

Using community-based methods and a social ecological framework to explore workplace health and safety of bloqueros on the Olympic Peninsula.

BACKGROUND: Occupational health and safety issues among Latino immigrants are increasingly important as increased immigration has led to a burgeoning workforce with limited English language skills or lack of documentation status. Foreign-born Latino immigrants are consistently the ethnic group with the highest occupational mortality rates in the United States. We aimed to understand and document the occupational safety and health hazards faced by a particularly at-risk Latino immigrant workforce--cedar block cutters, or bloqueros--on the Olympic Peninsula. METHODS: Key informant interviews were conducted using community-based participatory methods. Qualitative analysis was guided by grounded theory and a social ecological framework. RESULTS: Thirteen interviews were conducted lasting 1-2 hr each. Three prominent findings arose: (1) bloqueros face occupational risks similar to those found in other forestry occupations, (2) bloqueros face unexpected risks that are likely unique to block cutting, and (3) bloqueros face four overlapping marginalization forces (societal, economical, political, and occupational) that undermine workplace health and safety. CONCLUSIONS: Bloqueros work low-paying, high-risk jobs with little health and safety regulation, documentation, or coverage. Workers' precarious socio-economic position and various structural factors compound workplace risks and contribute to a lack of ability to advocate for safer and healthier working conditions.

Comprehending ecological and economic sustainability: comparative analysis of stability principles in the biosphere and free market economy.

The global environmental imperative demands urgent actions on ecological stabilization, yet the global scale of such actions is persistently insufficient. This calls for investigating why the world economy appears to be so fearful of any potential environmental expenditure. Using the formalism of Lyapunov potential function it is shown that the stability principles for biomass in the ecosystem and for employment in economics are mathematically similar. The ecosystem has a stable and unstable stationary state with high (forest) and low (grasslands) biomass, respectively. In economics, there is a stable stationary state with high employment in mass production of conventional goods sold at low cost price, and an unstable stationary state with lower employment in production of novel products of technological progress sold at higher prices. An additional stable state is described for economics with very low employment in production of life essentials, such as energy and raw materials that are sold at greatly inflated prices. In this state the civilization pays 10% of global GDP for energy produced by a negligible minority of the working population (currently approximately 0.2%) and sold at prices exceeding the cost price by 40 times, a state when any extra expenditures of whatever nature appear intolerable. The reason lies in the fundamental shortcoming of economic theory, which allows for economic ownership over energy sources. This is shown to be equivalent to equating measurable variables of different dimensions (stores and fluxes), which leads to effective violation of the laws of energy and matter conservation in modern economics.

Capture-recapture estimation using finite mixtures of arbitrary dimension.

Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) methods are used to fit Bayesian capture-recapture models incorporating heterogeneity in individuals and samples. Heterogeneity in capture probabilities comes from finite mixtures and/or fixed sample effects allowing for interactions. Estimation by RJMCMC allows automatic model selection and/or model averaging. Priors on the parameters stabilize the estimates and produce realistic credible intervals for population size for overparameterized models, in contrast to likelihood-based methods. To demonstrate the approach we analyze the standard Snowshoe hare and Cottontail rabbit data sets from ecology, a reliability testing data set.

Bias in phenology assessments based on first appearance data of butterflies.

Data on the first appearance of species in the field season are widely used in phenological studies. However, there are probabilistic arguments for bias in estimates of phenological change if sampling methods or population abundances change. We examined the importance of bias in three measures of phenological change: (1) the date of the first X appearances, (2) the date of the first Y% of all first appearances and (3) the date of the first Z% of the individuals observed during the entire flight period. These measures were tested by resampling the data of the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme and by simulations using artificial data. We compared datasets differing in the number of sampling sites, population abundance and the start of the observation period. The date of the first X appearances proved to be sensitive to the number of sampling sites. Both the date of the first X appearances and the date of the first Y% of all first appearances were sensitive to population trend. No such biases were found for estimates of the first Z% of the flight period, but all three measures were sensitive to changes in the start of the observation period. The conclusions were similar for both the study on butterfly data and the simulation study. Bias in phenology assessments based on first appearance data may be considerable and should no longer be ignored in phenological research.

Efficient statistical inference procedures for partially nonlinear models and their applications.

Motivated by an analysis of a real data set in ecology, we consider a class of partially nonlinear models where both a nonparametric component and a parametric component are present. We develop two new estimation procedures to estimate the parameters in the parametric component. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the resulting estimators are established. We further propose an estimation procedure and a generalized F-test procedure for the nonparametric component in the partially nonlinear models. Asymptotic properties of the newly proposed estimation procedure and the test statistic are derived. Finite sample performance of the proposed inference procedures are assessed by Monte Carlo simulation studies. An application in ecology is used to illustrate the proposed methods.

A cross-regional assessment of the factors affecting ecoliteracy: implications for policy and practice.

The value of accumulated ecological knowledge, termed ecoliteracy, is vital to both human and ecosystem health. Maintenance of this knowledge is essential for continued support of local conservation efforts and the capacity of communities to self- or co-manage their local resources sustainably. Most previous studies have been qualitative and small scale, documenting ecoliteracy in geographically isolated locations. In this study, we take a different approach, focusing on (1) the primary factors affecting individual levels of ecoliteracy, (2) whether these factors shift with economic development, and (3) if different knowledge protection strategies are required for the future. We compared non-resource-dependent communities in the United Kingdom with resource-dependent communities in India and Indonesia (n=1250 interviews). We found that UK residents with the highest levels of ecoliteracy visited the countryside frequently, lived and grew up in rural areas, and acquired their knowledge from informal word-of-mouth sources, such as parents and friends, rather than television and schooling. The ecoliteracy of resource-dependent community members, however, varied with wealth status and gender. The least wealthy families depended most on local resources for their livelihoods and had the highest levels of ecoliteracy. Gender roles affected both the level and content of an individual's ecoliteracy. The importance of reciprocal oral transfer of this knowledge in addition to direct experience to the maintenance of ecoliteracy was apparent at all sites. Lessons learned may contribute to new local resource management strategies for combined ecoliteracy conservation. Without novel policies, local community management capacity is likely to be depleted in the future.