A New Method for Low Density Distribution Modeling and Near Threatened Species: The Study Case of Plectrohyla Guatemalensis.

We introduce a model that can be used for the description of the distribution of species when there is scarcity of data, based on our previous work (Ballesteros et al. J Math Biol 85(4):31, 2022). We address challenges in modeling species that are seldom observed in nature, for example species included in The International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Threatened Species (IUCN 2023). We introduce a general method and test it using a case study of a near threatened species of amphibians called Plectrohyla Guatemalensis (see IUCN 2023) in a region of the UNESCO natural reserve "Tacaná Volcano", in the border between Mexico and Guatemala. Since threatened species are difficult to find in nature, collected data can be extremely reduced. This produces a mathematical problem in the sense that the usual modeling in terms of Markov random fields representing individuals associated to locations in a grid generates artificial clusters around the observations, which are unreasonable. We propose a different approach in which our random variables describe yearly averages of expectation values of the number of individuals instead of individuals (and they take values on a compact interval). Our approach takes advantage of intuitive insights from environmental properties: in nature individuals are attracted or repulsed by specific features (Ballesteros et al. J Math Biol 85(4):31, 2022). Drawing inspiration from quantum mechanics, we incorporate quantum Hamiltonians into classical statistical mechanics (i.e. Gibbs measures or Markov random fields). The equilibrium between spreading and attractive/repulsive forces governs the behavior of the species, expressed through a global control problem involving an energy operator.

Ongoing declines for the world's amphibians in the face of emerging threats.

Systematic assessments of species extinction risk at regular intervals are necessary for informing conservation action1,2. Ongoing developments in taxonomy, threatening processes and research further underscore the need for reassessment3,4. Here we report the findings of the second Global Amphibian Assessment, evaluating 8,011 species for the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species. We find that amphibians are the most threatened vertebrate class (40.7% of species are globally threatened). The updated Red List Index shows that the status of amphibians is deteriorating globally, particularly for salamanders and in the Neotropics. Disease and habitat loss drove 91% of status deteriorations between 1980 and 2004. Ongoing and projected climate change effects are now of increasing concern, driving 39% of status deteriorations since 2004, followed by habitat loss (37%). Although signs of species recoveries incentivize immediate conservation action, scaled-up investment is urgently needed to reverse the current trends.

Assessing the illegal hunting of native wildlife in China.

Illegal harvesting and trading of wildlife have become major threats to global biodiversity and public health1-3. Although China is widely recognized as an important destination for wildlife illegally obtained abroad4, little attention has been given to illegal hunting within its borders. Here we extracted 9,256 convictions for illegal hunting from a nationwide database of trial verdicts in China spanning January 2014 to March 2020. These convictions involved illegal hunting of 21% (n = 673) of China's amphibian, reptile, bird and mammal species, including 25% of imperilled species in these groups. Sample-based extrapolation indicates that many more species were taken illegally during this period. Larger body mass and range size (for all groups), and proximity to urban markets (for amphibians and birds) increase the probability of a species appearing in the convictions database. Convictions pertained overwhelmingly to illegal hunting for commercial purposes and involved all major habitats across China. A small number of convictions represented most of the animals taken, indicating the existence of large commercial poaching operations. Prefectures closer to urban markets show higher densities of convictions and more individual animals taken. Our results suggest that illegal hunting is a major, overlooked threat to biodiversity throughout China.

Assessing recovery of spectacled eiders using a Bayesian decision analysis.

Assessing species status and making classification decisions under the Endangered Species Act is a critical step towards effective species conservation. However, classification decisions are liable to two errors: i) failing to classify a species as threatened or endangered that should be classified (underprotection), or ii) classifying a species as threatened or endangered when it is not warranted (overprotection). Recent surveys indicate threatened spectacled eider populations are increasing in western Alaska, prompting the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to reconsider the federal listing status. There are multiple criteria set for assessing spectacled eider status, and here we focus on the abundance and decision analysis criteria. We estimated population metrics using state-space models for Alaskan breeding populations of spectacled eiders. We projected abundance over 50 years using posterior estimates of abundance and process variation to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction. The decision analysis maps the risk of quasi-extinction to the loss associated with making a misclassification error (i.e., underprotection) through a loss function. Our results indicate that the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta breeding population in western Alaska has met the recovery criteria but the Arctic Coastal Plain population in northern Alaska has not. The methods employed here provide an example of accounting for uncertainty and incorporating value judgements in such a way that the decision-makers may understand the risk of committing a misclassification error. Incorporating the abundance threshold and decision analysis in the reclassification criteria greatly increases the transparency and defensibility of the classification decision, a critical aspect for making effective decisions about species management and conservation.

Red List assessment of amphibian species of Ecuador: A multidimensional approach for their conservation.

Ecuador is one of the most biodiverse countries in the world, but faces severe pressures and threats to its natural ecosystems. Numerous species have declined and require to be objectively evaluated and quantified, as a step towards the development of conservation strategies. Herein, we present an updated National Red List Assessment for amphibian species of Ecuador, with one of the most detailed and complete coverages for any Ecuadorian taxonomic group to date. Based on standardized methodologies that integrate taxonomic work, spatial analyses, and ecological niche modeling, we assessed the extinction risk and identified the main threats for all Ecuadorian native amphibians (635 species), using the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria. Our evaluation reveals that 57% (363 species) are categorized as Threatened, 12% (78 species) as Near Threatened, 4% (26 species) as Data Deficient, and 27% (168 species) as Least Concern. Our assessment almost doubles the number of threatened species in comparison with previous evaluations. In addition to habitat loss, the expansion of the agricultural/cattle raising frontier and other anthropogenic threats (roads, human settlements, and mining/oil activities) amplify the incidence of other pressures as relevant predictors of ecological integrity. Potential synergic effects with climate change and emergent diseases (apparently responsible for the sudden declines), had particular importance amongst the threats sustained by Ecuadorian amphibians. Most threatened species are distributed in montane forests and paramo habitats of the Andes, with nearly 10% of them occurring outside the National System of Protected Areas of the Ecuadorian government. Based on our results, we recommend the following actions: (i) An increase of the National System of Protected Areas to include threatened species. (ii) Supporting the ex/in-situ conservation programs to protect species considered like Critically Endangered and Endangered. (iii) Focalizing research efforts towards the description of new species, as well as species currently categorized as Data Deficient (DD) that may turn out to be threatened. The implementation of the described actions is challenging, but urgent, given the current conservation crisis faced by amphibians.

Global assessment of forest quality for threatened terrestrial vertebrate species in need of conservation translocation programs.

Conservation actions such as habitat protection, restoration, and translocations are critical actions in preventing further extinctions of threatened species. We used the 152 threatened species on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature's Red List with conservation translocations as a recommended conservation action to access the habitat quality of these species' ranges. We determined where multi-species conservation translocation and forest restoration efforts can be concentrated. To determine the habitat quality of species' ranges, we assessed forest cover, forest restoration potential, protected area status, and invasive species concerns. Forty-four percent (67 species) of species with translocations recommended have part of their range in a protected area, existing forest cover, and currently no invasive species risk. However, the majority (85 species) currently need habitat management (63 species), invasive species control (71 species), or protection (34 species). We also identified key differences between species recommended for reintroductions (115 species) and benign introductions (37 species), such as the percentage of a species' range within a protected area, in which reintroductions (median = 7.4%) had more than benign introductions (median = 0.9%). Mauritius, central Africa, eastern Australia and Himalaya regions each have areas with range overlap of three or more species recommended for translocations and forest restoration potential. For those species with CT programs in place, mean forest cover was 32% and restoration potential was 16%, suggesting potential minimum habitat requirements for initial releases. Results provide a global perspective on reintroduction and translocation needs of threatened species with evidenced-based information on habitat quality, i.e. forest restoration potential, forest cover, protected areas, and invasive species control, to aid conservation translocation scientists and ultimately improve the success of such projects.

Half a century of global decline in oceanic sharks and rays.

Overfishing is the primary cause of marine defaunation, yet declines in and increasing extinction risks of individual species are difficult to measure, particularly for the largest predators found in the high seas1-3. Here we calculate two well-established indicators to track progress towards Aichi Biodiversity Targets and Sustainable Development Goals4,5: the Living Planet Index (a measure of changes in abundance aggregated from 57 abundance time-series datasets for 18 oceanic shark and ray species) and the Red List Index (a measure of change in extinction risk calculated for all 31 oceanic species of sharks and rays). We find that, since 1970, the global abundance of oceanic sharks and rays has declined by 71% owing to an 18-fold increase in relative fishing pressure. This depletion has increased the global extinction risk to the point at which three-quarters of the species comprising this functionally important assemblage are threatened with extinction. Strict prohibitions and precautionary science-based catch limits are urgently needed to avert population collapse6,7, avoid the disruption of ecological functions and promote species recovery8,9.

Over 90 endangered fish and invertebrates are caught in industrial fisheries.

Industrial-scale harvest of species at risk of extinction is controversial and usually highly regulated on land and for charismatic marine animals (e.g. whales). In contrast, threatened marine fish species can be legally caught in industrial fisheries. To determine the magnitude and extent of this problem, we analyze global fisheries catch and import data and find reported catch records of 91 globally threatened species. Thirteen of the species are traded internationally and predominantly consumed in European nations. Targeted industrial fishing for 73 of the threatened species accounts for nearly all (99%) of the threatened species catch volume and value. Our results are a conservative estimate of threatened species catch and trade because we only consider species-level data, excluding group records such as 'sharks and rays.' Given the development of new fisheries monitoring technologies and the current push for stronger international mechanisms for biodiversity management, industrial fishing of threatened fish and invertebrates should no longer be neglected in conservation and sustainability commitments.

Molecular sexing and preliminary assessment of population sex ratio of the endangered Malayan tapir (Tapirus indicus) in Peninsular Malaysia.

A molecular sexing method by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification of a portion of the sex-determining region Y (SRY) and the zinc finger (ZF) gene, as well as six equine Y-chromosome-specific microsatellite markers, were tested in the Malayan tapir (Tapirus indicus). While the microsatellite markers did not yield any male-specific amplicons for sex-typing, the SRY/ZF marker system produced reliable molecular sexing results by accurately sex-typing 31 reference Malayan tapirs, using whole blood, dried blood spot (DBS), or tissue samples as materials for DNA extraction. The marker system was also tested on 16 faecal samples, and the results were in general consistent with the pre-determined sexes of the animals, despite some amplification failures. A preliminary estimation of wild Malayan tapir population sex ratio was estimated from the Wildlife Genomic Resource Bank (WGRB) database of the Malaysian Department of Wildlife and National Parks (PERHILITAN), zoos, and the Sungai Dusun Wildlife Conservation Centre (WCC), as well as from the results of molecular sexing 12 samples of unknown sex. The overall sex ratio favoured females, but the deviation from parity was statistically not significant when tested using the binomial test (p > 0.05), which may be due to reduced statistical power caused by small sample sizes.

A global assessment of the drivers of threatened terrestrial species richness.

High numbers of threatened species might be expected to occur where overall species richness is also high; however, this explains only a proportion of the global variation in threatened species richness. Understanding why many areas have more or fewer threatened species than would be expected given their species richness, and whether that is consistent across taxa, is essential for identifying global conservation priorities. Here, we show that, after controlling for species richness, environmental factors, such as temperature and insularity, are typically more important than human impacts for explaining spatial variation in global threatened species richness. Human impacts, nevertheless, have an important role, with relationships varying between vertebrate groups and zoogeographic regions. Understanding this variation provides a framework for establishing global conservation priorities, identifying those regions where species are inherently more vulnerable to the effects of threatening human processes, and forecasting how threatened species might be distributed in a changing world.

Taming age mortality in semi-captive Asian elephants.

Understanding factors preventing populations of endangered species from being self-sustaining is vital for successful conservation, but we often lack sufficient data to understand dynamics. The global Asian elephant population has halved since the 1950s, however >25% currently live in captivity and effective management is essential to maintain viable populations. Here, we study the largest semi-captive Asian elephant population, those of the Myanma timber industry (~20% global captive population), whose population growth is heavily limited by juvenile mortality. We assess factors associated with increased mortality of calves aged 4.0-5.5 years, the taming age in Myanmar, a process affecting ~15,000 captive elephants to varying degrees worldwide. Using longitudinal survival data of 1,947 taming-aged calves spanning 43 years, we showed that calf mortality risk increased by >50% at the taming age of four, a peak not seen in previous studies on wild African elephants. Calves tamed at younger ages experienced higher mortality risk, as did calves with less experienced mothers. Taming-age survival greatly improved after 2000, tripling since the 1970's. Management should focus on reducing risks faced by vulnerable individuals such as young and first-born calves to further improve survival. Changes associated with reduced mortality here are important targets for improving the sustainability of captive populations.

A system wide approach to managing zoo collections for visitor attendance and in situ conservation.

Zoos contribute substantial resources to in situ conservation projects in natural habitats using revenue from visitor attendance, as well as other sources. We use a global dataset of over 450 zoos to develop a model of how zoo composition and socio-economic factors directly and indirectly influence visitor attendance and in situ project activity. We find that zoos with many animals, large animals, high species richness (particularly of mammals), and which are dissimilar to other zoos achieve higher numbers of visitors and contribute to more in situ conservation projects. However, the model strongly supports a trade-off between number of animals and body mass indicating that alternative composition strategies, such as having many small animals, may also be effective. The evidence-base presented here can be used to help guide collection planning processes and increase the in situ contributions from zoos, helping to reduce global biodiversity loss.

Proportional threshold harvesting in discrete-time population models.

Threshold-based harvesting strategies tend to give high yields while protecting the exploited population. A significant drawback, however, is the possibility of harvesting moratoria with their socio-economic consequences, if the population size falls below the threshold and harvesting is not allowed anymore. Proportional threshold harvesting (PTH) is a strategy, where only a fraction of the population surplus above the threshold is harvested. It has been suggested to overcome the drawbacks of threshold-based strategies. Here, we use discrete-time single-species models and rigorously analyze the impact of PTH on population dynamics and stability. We find that the population response to PTH can be markedly different depending on the specific population model. Reducing the threshold and allowing more harvest can be destabilizing (for the Ricker and Hassell map), stabilizing (for the quadratic map), or both (for the generalized Beverton-Holt map). Similarly, management actions in the form of increasing the threshold do not always improve population stability-this can also be due to bistability. Our results therefore emphasize the importance of a rigorous analysis in investigating the impact of PTH on population stability.

An efficient micropropagation protocol for an endangered ornamental tree species (Magnolia sirindhorniae Noot. & Chalermglin) and assessment of genetic uniformity through DNA markers.

Magnolia sirindhorniae Noot. & Chalermglin is an endangered species with high ornamental and commercial value that needs to be urgently protected and judiciously commercialized. In this study, a protocol for efficient regeneration of this species is standardized. The lateral buds of the M. sirindhorniae plant were used as an explant. Half-strength Murashige and Skoog (MS) medium supplemented with 2.0 mg/L 6-benzyladenine (BA), 0.1 mg/L α-naphthaleneacetic acid (NAA), and 2.0 mg/L gibberellic acid (GA3) was found to be the optimal medium for shoot induction. The maximum shoot multiplication rate (310%) was obtained on Douglas-fir cotyledon revised medium (DCR) fortified with 0.2 mg/L BA, 0.01 mg/L NAA, and additives. The half-strength DCR medium supplemented with 0.5 mg/L NAA and 0.5 mg/L indole-3-butyric acid (IBA) supported the maximum rate (85.0%) of in vitro root induction. After a simple acclimatization process, the survival rate of plantlets in a substrate mixture of sterile perlite and peat soil (1:3; v/v) was 90.2%. DNA markers were used for assessment of genetic uniformity, confirming the genetic uniformity and stability of regenerated plants of M. sirindhorniae. Thus, the described protocol can safely be applied for large scale propagation of this imperative plant.

Coupling Modern Portfolio Theory and Marxan enhances the efficiency of Lesser White-fronted Goose's (Anser erythropus) habitat conservation.

Climate change and human activities cause uncertain changes to species biodiversity by altering their habitat. The uncertainty of climate change requires planners to balance the benefit and cost of making conservation plan. Here optimal protection approach for Lesser White-fronted Goose (LWfG) by coupling Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) and Marxan selection were proposed. MPT was used to provide suggested weights of investment for protected area (PA) and reduce the influence of climatic uncertainty, while Marxan was utilized to choose a series of specific locations for PA. We argued that through combining these two commonly used techniques with the conservation plan, including assets allocation and PA chosing, the efficiency of rare bird's protection would be enhanced. In MPT analyses, the uncertainty of conservation-outcome can be reduced while conservation effort was allocated in Hunan, Jiangxi and Yangtze River delta. In Marxan model, the optimal location for habitat restorations based on existing nature reserve was identified. Clear priorities for the location and allocation of assets could be provided based on this research, and it could help decision makers to build conservation strategy for LWfG.