Ageing threatens sustainability of smallholder farming in China.

Rapid demographic ageing substantially affects socioeconomic development1-4 and presents considerable challenges for food security and agricultural sustainability5-8, which have so far not been well understood. Here, by using data from more than 15,000 rural households with crops but no livestock across China, we show that rural population ageing reduced farm size by 4% through transferring cropland ownership and land abandonment (approximately 4 million hectares) in 2019, taking the population age structure in 1990 as a benchmark. These changes led to a reduction of agricultural inputs, including chemical fertilizers, manure and machinery, which decreased agricultural output and labour productivity by 5% and 4%, respectively, further lowering farmers' income by 15%. Meanwhile, fertilizer loss increased by 3%, resulting in higher pollutant emissions to the environment. In new farming models, such as cooperative farming, farms tend to be larger and operated by younger farmers, who have a higher average education level, hence improving agricultural management. By encouraging the transition to new farming models, the negative consequences of ageing can be reversed. Agricultural input, farm size and farmer's income would grow by approximately 14%, 20% and 26%, respectively, and fertilizer loss would reduce by 4% in 2100 compared with that in 2020. This suggests that management of rural ageing will contribute to a comprehensive transformation of smallholder farming to sustainable agriculture in China.

Pollution index of waterfowl farm assessment and prediction based on temporal convoluted network.

Environmental quality is a major factor that directly impacts waterfowl productivity. Accurate prediction of pollution index (PI) is the key to improving environmental management and pollution control. This study applied a new neural network model called temporal convolutional network and a denoising algorithm called wavelet transform (WT) for predicting future 12-, 24-, and 48-hour PI values at a waterfowl farm in Shanwei, China. The temporal convoluted network (TCN) model performance was compared with that of recurrent architectures with the same capacity, long-short time memory neural network (LSTM), and gated recurrent unit (GRU). Denoised environmental data, including ammonia, temperature, relative humidity, carbon dioxide (CO2), and total suspended particles (TSP), were used to construct the forecasting model. The simulation results showed that the TCN model in general produced a more precise PI prediction and provided the highest prediction accuracy for all phases (MAE = 0.0842, 0.0859, and 0.1115; RMSE = 0.0154, 0.0167, and 0.0273; R2 = 0.9789, 0.9791, and 0.9635). The PI assessment prediction model based on TCN exhibited the best prediction accuracy and general performance compared with other parallel forecasting models and is a suitable and useful tool for predicting PI in waterfowl farms.

Epidemics and the future of coffee production.

In this perspective, we draw on recent scientific research on the coffee leaf rust (CLR) epidemic that severely impacted several countries across Latin America and the Caribbean over the last decade, to explore how the socioeconomic impacts from COVID-19 could lead to the reemergence of another rust epidemic. We describe how past CLR outbreaks have been linked to reduced crop care and investment in coffee farms, as evidenced in the years following the 2008 global financial crisis. We discuss relationships between CLR incidence, farmer-scale agricultural practices, and economic signals transferred through global and local effects. We contextualize how current COVID-19 impacts on labor, unemployment, stay-at-home orders, and international border policies could affect farmer investments in coffee plants and in turn create conditions favorable for future shocks. We conclude by arguing that COVID-19's socioeconomic disruptions are likely to drive the coffee industry into another severe production crisis. While this argument illustrates the vulnerabilities that come from a globalized coffee system, it also highlights the necessity of ensuring the well-being of all. By increasing investments in coffee institutions and paying smallholders more, we can create a fairer and healthier system that is more resilient to future social-ecological shocks.

New York State dairy farmers' perceptions of antibiotic use and resistance: A qualitative interview study.

Antibiotic resistance is a global problem affecting both human and animal health. Ensuring the strategic and effective use of antibiotics is paramount to combatting the emergence and spread of resistance. This study explored New York State (NYS) dairy farmers' perceptions regarding antibiotic use in dairy farming and antibiotic resistance. Dairy farmers' perceptions were assessed through semi-structured, in-person interviews. Twenty interviews with farm owners and/or managers of 15 conventional and five USDA certified organic dairy farms with 40 to 2,300 lactating cows were conducted. Thematic analysis was used to assess, compare and contrast transcripts for farmers' characterization of their beliefs, values, and concerns. Conventional dairy farmers had a low level of concern about the possible impacts of on-farm antibiotic resistance on human health and believed their antibiotic use was already judicious. Generally, they believed their cattle's health would suffer if antibiotic use were further curtailed. Conventional farmers expressed frustration over the possibility of more stringent governmental, milk cooperative, buyer, or marketer requirements for antibiotic use and associated animal welfare in the future. They attributed expanding regulations in part to misinformed consumer preferences, that farmers felt were influenced by the marketing of organic dairy products. Organic dairy farmers were generally more concerned about issues related to antibiotic resistance than conventional farmers. Both conventional and organic farmers placed emphasis on disease prevention through herd health management rather than treatment. In conclusion, the conventional NYS dairy farmers in this study were skeptical of the need for and benefits of reduced antibiotic use on their dairy farms. Interventions for farmers, delivered by a trusted source such as a veterinarian, that provide training about proper antibiotic use practices and information of possible financial benefits of refining antibiotic use may hold promise.

Impact of land use land cover changes on ecosystem service value - A case study of Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao in South China.

The rapid increase in anthropogenic activities, socioeconomic development, and land use land cover (LULC) changes since the opening of economic reforms (1978), have changed the ecosystem service value (ESV) in Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao (GKHM) region located in South China. This leads to the requirement of a significant tailored analysis of ecosystem services regarding incisive and relevant planning to ensure sustainability at regional level. This study focuses on the use of Landsat satellite imagery to quantify the precise impact of LULC changes on the ecosystem services in GHKM over the past three decades (1986-2017). The most renowned established unit value transfer method has been employed to calculate the ESV. The results show that the total ecosystem service value in GHKM has decreased from 680.23 billion CNY in 1986 to 668.45 billion CNY in 2017, mainly due to the decrease in farmland and fishponds. This overall decrease concealed the more dynamic and complex nature of the individual ESV. The most significant decrease took place in the values of water supply (-22.20 billion CNY, -14.72%), waste treatment (-20.77 billion CNY, -14.63%), and food production (-7.96 billion CNY, -33.18%). On the other hand, the value of fertile soil formation and retention (6.28 billion CNY, +7.26%) and recreation and culture (5.09 billion CNY, +12.91%) increased. Furthermore, total ESV and ESV per capita decreased significantly with the continuous increase in total gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP per capita. A substantial negative correlation exists between farmland ESV and GDP indicating human encroachment into a natural and semi natural ecosystems. The results suggest that in the rapidly urbanizing region, the protection of farmland and to control the intrusion of urban areas has marked an important societal demand and a challenge to the local government. This required a pressing need for smart LULC planning and to improve policies and regulation to guarantee ecosystem service sustainability for acceptable life quality in the study area and other fast expanding urban areas in China.

Innovating within or outside dominant food systems? Different challenges for contrasting crop diversification strategies in Europe.

Innovations supporting a shift towards more sustainable food systems can be developed within the dominant food system regime or in alternative niches. No study has compared the challenges faced in each context. This paper, based on an analysis of 25 cases of European innovations that support crop diversification, explores the extent to which barriers to crop diversification can be related to the proximity of innovation settings with dominant food systems. Drawing on a qualitative analysis of interviews and participatory brainstorming, we highlight 46 different barriers to crop diversification across the cases, at different levels: production; downstream operations from farm to retailing, marketing and consumers; and contracts and coordination between actors. To characterise the diversity of innovation strategies at food system level, we introduce the concept of "food system innovation settings" combining: (i) the type of innovative practice promoted at farm level; (ii) the type of value chain supporting that innovation; and (iii) the type of agriculture involved (organic or conventional). Through a multiple correspondence analysis, we show different patterns of barriers to crop diversification according to three ideal-types of food system innovation settings: (i) "Changing from within", where longer rotations are fostered on conventional farms involved in commodity supply chains; (ii) "Building outside", where crop diversification integrates intercropping on organic farms involved in local supply chains; and (iii) "Playing horizontal", where actors promote alternative crop diversification strategies-either strictly speaking horizontal at spatial level (e.g. strip cropping) or socially horizontal (arrangement between farmers)-without directly challenging the vertical organisation of dominant value chains. We recommend designing targeted research and policy actions according to the food systems they seek to develop. We then discuss further development of our approach to analyse barriers faced in intermediate and hybrid food system configurations.

A Tale of Three Gorges in the Yangtze River: Comparing the Prevalence of Metabolic Syndrome According to ATPIII, WHO, and IDF Criteria and the Association with Vascular Health in Modernizing China.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic syndrome (MS) is associated with atherosclerotic diseases. The prevalence of MS according to the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATPIII), World Health Organization (WHO), and International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria are variable but increasing in western countries and modernizing China. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of MS according to these three criteria, in farmers or ex-farming residents in three-gorges territories undergoing rapid lifestyle changes. METHODS: We compared 95 residents (ex-farmers) in Wu Shan (WS) (28.4% men, aged 49.7 ± 9 years) resettled uphill for 3-5 years, and 87 age- and gender-matched farmers in Da Chang (DC) (27.6% men, aged 48.8 ± 10 years) before migration. MS and other traditional risk factors were assessed and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) measured. RESULTS: Ninety-nine percent of WS residents were retired or adopted nonfarming jobs. Compared with DC farmers, WS ex-farmers had higher waist circumference, low density lipoprotein-cholesterol, and triglycerides (P < 0.0001), but their blood pressures, HDL-cholesterol, and fasting glucose were similar. MS were identified in 43.2% (IDF), 36.8% (WHO), and 29.5% (ATPIII) respectively in WS ex-farmers, compared with 17.2%, 13.8%, and 11.5% respectively in DC farmers. Carotid IMT was significantly higher in WS ex-farmers (0.74 ± 0.16 mm) than in DC farmers (0.64 ± 0.11 mm) (P < 0.0001). On multivariate regression analysis, prevalence of MS was correlated with job nature (beta = 0.425, P < 0.0001). Carotid IMT was better correlated with IDF MS criteria (beta = 0.208, P = 0.021), independent of age and WS location (regression adjusted R2 = 0.444, F-value 12.0, P < 0.0001), but not with the ATPIII or WHO criteria. CONCLUSIONS: IDF MS criteria is more sensitive, better correlates with atherosclerosis surrogate, and accordingly is more readily applicable to modernizing China.

An egg for everyone: Pathways to universal access to one of nature's most nutritious foods.

Eggs are a highly nutritious food but have been shown to be infrequently consumed in many low-income countries, especially by women and children. We collate country-level data on egg production, availability, consumption, prices, industry structure, and contextual trends and use these to estimate current patterns and likely future outcomes under four alternative scenarios. These scenarios are as follows: incremental change based on expected economic growth and urbanisation (the base scenario); enhanced productivity of independent small producers; aggregated production in egg hubs; and the accelerated spread of large-scale intensive production. All scenarios are modelled out to 2030 using a mix of regression and deterministic models. We find that children's consumption of eggs is highly correlated with national availability, and both are a function of egg prices. Eggs are unavailable, expensive, and infrequently consumed by children in much of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The base scenario results in modest increases in production in low-income regions. Focusing efforts on independent small producers can only boost rural consumption in a handful of countries where poultry ownership is unusually high and would be expensive and logistically challenging to scale. Aggregation of production, with minimum flock sizes of 5,000 layers per farm, is a more promising pathway to increasing availability in rural areas. To meet the needs of urban populations, large-scale intensive production is needed. Intensive production brings down prices significantly, allowing many more poor households to access and consume eggs. Recent experience in countries such as Thailand confirms that this is both feasible and impactful.