Addition of constitutional symptoms to the SLEDAI-2K improves overall disease activity assessment: A pilot study.

OBJECTIVE: Constitutional symptoms (fatigue, lymphadenopathy, and weight loss) are not included in the SLE disease activity index-2000 (SLEDAI-2K). In this pilot study, we assessed the concurrent and construct validity of a revised SLEDAI-2K (SLED-R) that included these symptoms with the original SLEDAI-2K (SLED-O), using the physician global assessment of disease activity (PGA) as the reference. METHODS: Our revised SLED-R substituted the SLED-O's fever descriptor with a constitutional descriptor that included fever, fatigue, lymphadenopathy, and/or weight loss. SLED-O, SLED-R, PGA and patient global assessment (PtGA) scores were collected prospectively. Bland-Altman correlations for repeated measures were calculated and Meng's z-test was used to compare correlations between dependent and overlapping correlation coefficients. Associations between constitutional symptoms and disease activity measures were analyzed using Mann-Whitney U, Kruskal-Wallis, Chi-square tests and repeated measures correlations. RESULTS: 1123 SLED-O, SLED-R, PGA, and 1066 PtGA were collected in 239 subjects. The new descriptor was scored in 45 subjects (18.8%) and 92 instances (8.1%), while the original descriptor, fever, was scored in only 4 subjects (1.7%) and 5 instances (0.4%). Mean SLED-O, PGA and PtGA scores were higher when the constitutional descriptor was scored versus not (p < .001). The correlation between SLED-R and PGA was marginally higher than between SLED-O and PGA (p < .001). Fatigue contributed most to this increase (p = .001) and associated with both higher PGA and PtGA scores (p < .001). Mean SLED-O and PGA scores were higher when ≥1 constitutional symptom(s) were scored versus not (p < .002). Correlations between PGA and PtGA when the new descriptor was scored versus not were similar (p = .860). The frequency of concordance between PGA and PtGA was lower when the new descriptor was scored (55%) versus not (72.5%), with PGA > PtGA when the new descriptor was scored (p < .001). CONCLUSION: The addition of constitutional symptoms to SLEDAI-2K, particularly fatigue, resulted in a marginal increase in its correlation with PGA, and new constitutional symptoms associated with higher SLED-O and PGA scores. As fatigue is subjective and difficult to attribute to SLE, its validity and inter-rater reliability in scoring remains uncertain. The clinical utility of SLED-R remains unclear, and further studies of its validity and reliability are needed.

Body Core Temperature Assessment in Emergency Care Departments.

BACKGROUND: There is concern that the values provided by devices using infrared thermometry in emergency departments (EDs) do not reflect body core temperature accurately. OBJECTIVES: Evaluation of three thermometers commonly used in the ED. METHODS: Two infrared ear thermometers and an infrared forehead thermometer were evaluated using 1) the Voltcraft IRS-350 calibration device, 2) comparing temperature values to a rectal end-exercise temperature (T-RECT) of 38.1°C in 12 participants, and 3) comparing temperature values to rectal temperature in 133 ED patients. RESULTS: Calibration across the human core temperature range revealed that the ear thermometers underestimated radiant temperature by 0.77 ± 0.39°C and 1.84 ± 0.26°C, respectively, whereas the forehead thermometer overestimated radiant temperature by 0.90 ± 0.51°C. After cycling exercise, all thermometers underestimated T-RECT (0.54 ± 0.27°C and 1.03 ± 0.48°C for the ear thermometers and 1.14 ± 0.38°C for the forehead thermometer). In the ED, the ear thermometers underestimated T-RECT by 0.31 ± 0.37°C and 0.46 ± 0.50°C, whereas the forehead thermometer exhibited a nonsignificant overestimation of 0.04 ± 0.46°C. If the threshold for fever in all systems had been set to 37.5°C instead of 38.0°C, the sensitivity and specificity of the systems for real fever (T-RECT ≥ 38°C) are, respectively, 71% and 96% (ear thermometer 1), 57% and 97% (ear thermometer 2), and 86% and 90% (forehead thermometer). CONCLUSION: We conclude that the investigated thermometers are not reliable as devices to measure radiant temperature, cannot be used to assess body core temperature during exercise, but may be used as a screening device, with 37.5°C as a threshold for fever in emergency care settings.

Assessment of pre-referral treatment for malaria, diarrhea, and pneumonia by rural community health workers in Southwestern Uganda: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Pre-referral treatment aims to stabilize the child's condition before transferring them to a higher level of healthcare. This study explored pre-referral treatment for diarrhea, malaria and pneumonia in children U5. The study aims to assess pre-referral treatment practices among community health workers (CHWs) for children aged 2 to 59 months diagnosed with malaria, diarrhea, and pneumonia. METHODS: Conducted in 2023, this study employed a quantitative retrospective analysis of secondary data gathered from March 2014 to December 2018. Among the subjects, 171 patients received pre-referral treatment, serving as the foundation for categorical data analysis, presenting proportions and 95% confidence intervals across different categories. RESULTS: In this cohort, 90 (53%) of the 177 children U5 were male, and age distribution showed 39 (23%), 70 (41%), and 62 (36%) in the 2-11 months, 12-35 months, and 36-60 months categories, respectively. Rapid Diagnostic Test (RDT) malaria results indicated a negative outcome in 83(60%) and positive in 55 (40%) of cases. Symptomatically, 45 (26%) had diarrhea, 52 (30%) exhibited fast breathing, and 109 (63%) presented with fever. Furthermore, 59 (35%) displayed danger signs, while 104 (61%) sought medical attention within 24 h. CONCLUSION: The study analyzed a sample of 171 children under 5 years old to assess various characteristics and variables related to pre-referral treatment. The findings reveal notable proportions in gender distribution, age categories, RDT results, presence of diarrhea, fast breathing, fever, danger signs, and timely medical visits. The results highlight the need to strengthen pre-referral treatment interventions and enhance iCCM programs.

The value of fever assessment in addition to the Early Detection Infection Scale (EDIS). A validation study in nursing home residents in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: In order to improve detection of suspected infections in frail elderly there is an urgent need for development of decision support tools, that can be used in the daily work of all healthcare professionals for assessing non-specific and specific changes. The aim was to study non-specific signs and symptoms and fever temperature for early detection of ongoing infection in frail elderly, and how these correlates to provide the instrument, the Early Detection Infection Scale (EDIS), which is used to assess changes in health condition in frail elderly. METHODS: This was an explorative, prospective cohort study, including 45 nursing home residents, 76 to 99 years, in Sweden. Nursing assistants measured morning ear body temperature twice a week and used the EDIS to assess individual health condition daily for six months. The outcome comprised events of suspected infection, compiled from nursing and medical patient records. Factor analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed to analyse data. RESULTS: Fifteen residents were diagnosed with at least one infection during the six-month follow-up and 189 observations related to 72 events of suspected infection were recorded. The first factor analysis revealed that the components, change in cognitive and physical function, general signs and symptoms of illness, increased tenderness, change in eye expression and food intake and change in emotions explained 61% of the variance. The second factor analysis, adding temperature assessed as fever to > 1.0 °C from individual normal, resulted in change in physical function and food intake, confusion and signs and symptoms from respiratory and urinary tract, general signs and symptoms of illness and fever and increased tenderness, explaining 59% of the variance. In the first regression analysis, increased tenderness and change in eye expression and food intake, and in the second change in physical function and food intake, general signs and symptoms of illness and fever (> 1.0 °C from individual normal) and increased tenderness were significantly associated with increased risk for ongoing infection. CONCLUSION: No items in the EDIS should be removed at present, and assessment of fever as > 1.0 °C from individual normal is a valuable addition. The EDIS has the potential to make it easier for first line caregivers to systematically assess changes in health condition in fragile elderly people and helps observations to be communicated in a standardised way throughout the care process. The EDIS thus contributes to ensuring that the decisions not being taken at the wrong level of care.

Applying clinical decision aids for the assessment and management of febrile infants presenting to emergency care in the UK and Ireland: Febrile Infant Diagnostic Assessment and Outcome (FIDO) Study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Febrile infants 90 days and younger are at risk of invasive bacterial infections (bacteraemia and meningitis) and urinary tract infections. Together this is previously termed serious bacterial infection with an incidence of approximately 10-20%. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance advocates a cautious approach with most infants requiring septic screening, parenteral broad-spectrum antibiotics and hospital admission. Internationally, variations exist in the approach to febrile infants, with European and North American guidance advocating a tailored approach based on clinical features and biomarker testing. None of the available international clinical decision aids (CDAs) has been validated in the UK and Irish cohorts. The aim of the Febrile Infant Diagnostic Assessment and Outcome (FIDO) Study is to prospectively validate a range of CDAs in a UK and Irish population including CDAs that use procalcitonin testing. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The FIDO Study is a prospective multicentre mixed-methods cohort study conducted in UK and Irish hospitals. All infants aged 90 days and younger presenting with fever or history of fever (≥38°C) are eligible for inclusion. Infants will receive standard emergency clinical care without delay. Clinical data and blood samples will be collected, and consent will be obtained at the earliest appropriate opportunity using research without prior consent methodology. The performance and cost-effectiveness of CDAs will be assessed. An embedded qualitative study will explore clinician and caregiver views on different approaches to care and perceptions of risk. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was reviewed and approved by the Office for Research Ethics Committees Northern Ireland-Health and Social Care Research Ethics Committee B, Public Benefit and Privacy Panel for Health and Social Care Scotland, and Children's Health Ireland Research and Ethics Committee Ireland. The results of this study will be presented at academic conferences and in peer-reviewed publications. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05259683.

Validation of National Early Warning Score and Quick Sequential (sepsis-related) Organ Failure Assessment in acute myeloid leukaemia patients treated with intensive chemotherapy.

OBJECTIVES: Chemotherapy-induced neutropenia in acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) is a risk factor for life-threatening infections. Early diagnosis and prompt interventions are associated with better outcomes, but the prediction of infection severity remains an open question. Recently, National Early Warning Score (NEWS) and quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) scores were proposed as warning clinical instruments predicting in-hospital mortality, but their role in the haematological context is still unknown. METHODS: We retrospectively assess the predictive role of NEWS and qSOFA in a large and homogeneous cohort of adult AML patients treated with intensive chemotherapy. In a total of 1048 neutropenic episodes recorded in 334 consecutive patients, the scores were applied to predict outcomes on the same day of fever onset, and after 24 and 48 h from score calculation. RESULTS: Both NEWS and qSOFA significantly predicted death, with more accuracy on the same day (NEWS AUROC 0.984 and qSOFA AUROC 0.969) and after 24 h (NEWS AUROC 0.928 and qSOFA AUROC 0.887), while remained moderately accurate after 48 h. Furthermore, also ICU admission was accurately predicted at fever onset and after 24 h. CONCLUSIONS: Both scores were useful tools in the management of post chemotherapy neutropenic febrile AML patients.

Dengue algorithms integrated into the IMCI guidelines: An updated assessment in five Southeast-Asian countries.

BACKGROUND: Dengue is not included explicitly in the WHO Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) algorithm. However, the assessment, classification and management of dengue has been incorporated into several IMCI country adaptations. We aimed to evaluate the dengue algorithms incorporated into IMCI guidelines and discuss the need for harmonization, including an extension of the age range for IMCI. METHODS: This study included three steps. First, we investigated dengue algorithms incorporated into five Southeast-Asian (Myanmar, Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia) country IMCI guidelines through a desk-based analysis. Second, we conducted an expert survey to elicit opinions regarding the integration of dengue and extension of the age range in IMCI. Third, we compared our findings with data from a large multicentric prospective study on acute febrile illness. RESULTS: We found considerable heterogeneity between the country specific IMCI guidelines in the dengue algorithms as well as classification schemes. Most guidelines did not differentiate between diagnostic algorithms for the detection of dengue versus other febrile illness, and warning signs for progression to severe dengue. Our expert survey resulted in a consensus to further integrate dengue in IMCI and extend the age range for IMCI guidelines beyond 5 years of age. Most of the interviewees responded that their country had a stand-alone clinical guideline for dengue, which was not integrated into the IMCI approach and considered laboratory testing for dengue necessary on day three of consecutive fever. Using data from a large multicentric study of children 5-15 years of age, we could confirm that the likelihood of dengue increased with consecutive fever days. However, a significant proportion of children (36%) would be missed if laboratory testing was only offered on the third consecutive day of fever. CONCLUSIONS: This study supports the extension of the IMCI age range beyond 5 years of age as well as the inclusion of dengue relevant content in the algorithm. Because of the challenge of distinguishing dengue from other febrile illnesses, simple laboratory testing (e.g., full blood count) should be offered at an early stage during the course of the illness. Testing only children with consecutive fever over 3 days may lead to an underdiagnosis of dengue among those with acute febrile illness in children 5-15 years of age. In addition, specific laboratory testing for dengue should be made available to peripheral health facilities.

Assessment of Dengue and Chikungunya Infections among Febrile Patients Visiting Four Healthcare Centres in Yaoundé and Dizangué, Cameroon.

Dengue and chikungunya are now widely distributed in Cameroon, but there is still not enough information on their prevalence in different epidemiological settings. This study was undertaken to assess the prevalence of dengue and chikungunya in both urban and rural settings in Cameroon using three diagnostic tools. From December 2019 to September 2021, willing febrile (temperature >38 °C) outpatients visiting four healthcare facilities in the cities of Yaoundé and Dizangué were screened for dengue, and chikungunya. Clinical features of patient were recorded in a form, and their blood samples were analysed using real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (rtRT-PCR), rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and enzyme-linked immuno-sorbent assays (ELISA). Odds ratios were used to determine the level of association between socio-demographic factors, clinical features, and infection status. The Kappa coefficient permitted to assess the level of agreement between RDTs and ELISA. Overall, 301 febrile patients were recruited in the study: 198 in Yaoundé and 103 in Dizangué. The prevalence of infection varied with the diagnostic tool used. For dengue diagnostics, 110 patients were positive to rtRT-PCR: 90 (45.45%) in Yaoundé, and 20 (19.42%) in Dizangué. The prevalence of dengue IgM using ELISA varied from 22.3% in Dizangué to 30.8% in Yaoundé. Dengue IgM rate using RDTs was 7.6% in Yaoundé and 3.9% in Dizangué. For chikungunya, one (0.5%) patient (Yaoundé, suburb) was positive to rtRT-PCR. The prevalence of chikungunya IgM according to ELISA varied from 18.4% in Dizangué to 21.7% in Yaoundé, while it was 4.5% in Yaoundé and 12.6% in Dizangué with RDTs. Only abdominal and retro-orbital pains were significantly associated with acute dengue infection. All four dengue serotypes were recorded, with a predominance of DENV-3 (35.45%) and DENV-4 (25.45%). Rapid Diagnostic Tests for either chikungunya or dengue displayed very poor sensitivity. This study further confirms the high endemicity of both dengue and chikungunya in Yaoundé and Dizangué. These data stress the need for active surveillance and the implementation of vector control measures to prevent the occurrence of outbreaks across the country.

Factors associated with delay in treatment-seeking behaviour for fever cases among caregivers of under-five children in India: Evidence from the National Family Health Survey-4, 2015-16.

BACKGROUND: Fever is one of the common clinical symptoms found among children suffering from various illnesses. India carries a substantial burden of febrile illness among under-five children which heighten the risk of malnutrition, mortality and morbidity. This study aims to determine the factors associated with delay in treatment-seeking for fever among under-five children in India. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out using the large-scale nationally representative data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4), conducted in 2015-2016. The data were collected by using four survey questionnaires i.e., Household Questionnaire, Woman's Questionnaire, Man's Questionnaire, and Biomarker Questionnaire. Delay in treatment-seeking was defined as taking a child for treatment after 24 hours of fever onset. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models were performed to assess the factors associated with delay in treatment-seeking behaviour for fever in under-five children. RESULTS: In India, 31.12% (n = 7229) of the caregivers sought treatment for children after 24 hours of the onset of fever. Findings show no significant differences in delay in treatment-seeking behaviour by age groups and sex of children. Multivariate analysis revealed that the odds of delay in treatment-seeking behaviour of fever were higher among children from the poorest wealth quintile (AOR: 2.06; 95% CI: 1.85, 2.31), belonging to the scheduled tribe (AOR: 1.35; 95% CI: 1.24, 1.48), children who resided in rural areas (AOR: 1.14; 95% CI: 1.07, 1.22), children from the northeast region (AOR: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.14, 1.46), and children of caregivers who perceived distance to health facilities as a 'big problem' (AOR: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.09, 1.23). CONCLUSION: The study shows a high prevalence of delay in seeking treatment for fever among caregivers of under-five children in India. Delay in seeking treatment is associated with socio-demographic and socio-economic factors. Therefore, there is a need for intensified health promotion programs to sensitize caregivers on the importance of early health-seeking behaviour.

Fever following Covid-19 vaccination in subjects with Brugada syndrome: Incidence and management.

BACKGROUND: Fever is a potential side effect of the Covid-19 vaccination. Patients with Brugada syndrome (BrS) have an increased risk of life-threatening arrhythmias when experiencing fever. Prompt treatment with antipyretic drugs is suggested in these patients. AIM OF THE STUDY: To evaluate the incidence and management of fever within 48 h from Covid-19 vaccination among BrS patients. METHODS: One hundred sixty-three consecutive patients were enrolled in a prospective registry involving five European hospitals with a dedicated inherited disease ambulatory. RESULTS: The mean age was 50 ± 14 years and 121 (75%) patients were male. Prevalence of Brugada electrocardiogram (ECG) pattern type-1, -2, and -3 was 32%, 44%, and 24%, respectively. Twenty-eight (17%) patients had an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD). Fever occurred in 32 (19%) BrS patients after 16 ± 10 h from vaccination, with a peak of body temperature of 37.9° ± 0.5°. Patients with fever were younger (39 ± 13 vs. 48 ± 13 years, p = .04). No additional differences in terms of sex and cardiovascular risk factors were found between patients with fever and not. Twenty-seven (84%) out of 32 patients experienced mild fever and five (16%) moderate fever. Pharmacological treatment with antipyretic drugs was required in 18 (56%) out of 32 patients and was associated with the resolution of symptoms. No patient required hospital admission and no arrhythmic episode was recorded in patients with ICD within 48 h after vaccination. No induced type 1 BrS ECG pattern and new ECG features were found among patients with moderate fever. CONCLUSION: Fever is a common side effect in BrS patients after the Covid-19 vaccination. Careful evaluation of body temperature and prompt treatment with antipyretic drugs may be needed.

Accuracy of parents' subjective assessment of paediatric fever with thermometer measured fever in a primary care setting.

BACKGROUND: Fever is a common symptom of benign childhood illness but a high fever may be a sign of a serious infection. Temperature is often used by parents to check for illness in their children, and the presence of a high temperature can act as a prompt to consult a healthcare professional. It would be helpful for GPs to understand how well parental assessment of the presence of fever correlates with temperature measurement in the clinic in order to incorporate the history of the child's fever into their clinical assessment. METHODS: Secondary analysis of a cross-sectional diagnostic method comparison study. Parents were asked whether they thought their child had fever before their temperature was measured by a researcher. Fever was defined as a temperature of 38 °C and higher using either an axillary or tympanic thermometer. RESULTS: Of 399 children recruited, 119 (29.8%) were believed by their parents to be febrile at the time of questioning and 23 (6.3%) had a fever as measured by a researcher in the clinic. 23.5% of children with a parental assessment of fever were found to have a fever in the clinic. Less than 1% of children whose parents thought they did not have a fever were found to be febrile in the clinic. Having more than one child did not improve accuracy of parents assessing fever in their child. CONCLUSIONS: In the GP surgery setting, a child identified as afebrile by their parent is highly likely to be measured as such in the clinic. A child identified as febrile by their parent is less likely to be measured as febrile.

Shock Index in the early assessment of febrile children at the emergency department: a prospective multicentre study.

OBJECTIVE: (1) To derive reference values for the Shock Index (heart rate/systolic blood pressure) based on a large emergency department (ED) population of febrile children and (2) to determine the diagnostic value of the Shock Index for serious illness in febrile children. DESIGN/SETTING: Observational study in 11 European EDs (2017-2018). PATIENTS: Febrile children with measured blood pressure. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Serious bacterial infection (SBI), invasive bacterial infection (IBI), immediate life-saving interventions (ILSIs) and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The association between high Shock Index (>95th centile) and each outcome was determined by logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, referral, comorbidity and temperature. Additionally, we calculated sensitivity, specificity and negative/positive likelihood ratios (LRs). RESULTS: Of 5622 children, 461 (8.2%) had SBI, 46 (0.8%) had IBI, 203 (3.6%) were treated with ILSI and 69 (1.2%) were ICU admitted. High Shock Index was associated with SBI (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.6 (95% CI 1.3 to 1.9)), ILSI (aOR 2.5 (95% CI 2.0 to 2.9)), ICU admission (aOR 2.2 (95% CI 1.4 to 2.9)) but not with IBI (aOR: 1.5 (95% CI 0.6 to 2.4)). For the different outcomes, sensitivity for high Shock Index ranged from 0.10 to 0.15, specificity ranged from 0.95 to 0.95, negative LRs ranged from 0.90 to 0.95 and positive LRs ranged from 1.8 to 2.8. CONCLUSIONS: High Shock Index is associated with serious illness in febrile children. However, its rule-out value is insufficient which suggests that the Shock Index is not valuable as a screening tool for all febrile children at the ED.

Performance Assessment of the Universal Vital Assessment Score vs Other Illness Severity Scores for Predicting Risk of In-Hospital Death Among Adult Febrile Inpatients in Northern Tanzania, 2016-2019.

Importance: Severity scores are used to improve triage of hospitalized patients in high-income settings, but the scores may not translate well to low- and middle-income settings such as sub-Saharan Africa. Objective: To assess the performance of the Universal Vital Assessment (UVA) score, derived in 2017, compared with other illness severity scores for predicting in-hospital mortality among adults with febrile illness in northern Tanzania. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prognostic study used clinical data collected for the duration of hospitalization among patients with febrile illness admitted to Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre or Mawenzi Regional Referral Hospital in Moshi, Tanzania, from September 2016 through May 2019. All adult and pediatric patients with a history of fever within 72 hours or a tympanic temperature of 38.0 °C or higher at screening were eligible for enrollment. Of 3761 eligible participants, 1132 (30.1%) were enrolled in the parent study; of those, 597 adults 18 years or older were included in this analysis. Data were analyzed from December 2019 to September 2021. Exposures: Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), National Early Warning Score (NEWS), quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) assessment, and UVA. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was in-hospital mortality during the same hospitalization as the participant's enrollment. Crude risk ratios and 95% CIs for in-hospital death were calculated using log-binomial risk regression for proposed score cutoffs for each of the illness severity scores. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for estimating the risk of in-hospital death was calculated for each score. Results: Among 597 participants, the median age was 43 years (IQR, 31-56 years); 300 participants (50.3%) were female, 198 (33.2%) were HIV-infected, and in-hospital death occurred in 55 (9.2%). By higher risk score strata for each score, compared with lower risk strata, risk ratios for in-hospital death were 3.7 (95% CI, 2.2-6.2) for a MEWS of 5 or higher; 2.7 (95% CI, 0.9-7.8) for a NEWS of 5 or 6; 9.6 (95% CI, 4.2-22.2) for a NEWS of 7 or higher; 4.8 (95% CI, 1.2-20.2) for a qSOFA score of 1; 15.4 (95% CI, 3.8-63.1) for a qSOFA score of 2 or higher; 2.5 (95% CI, 1.2-5.2) for a SIRS score of 2 or higher; 9.1 (95% CI, 2.7-30.3) for a UVA score of 2 to 4; and 30.6 (95% CI, 9.6-97.8) for a UVA score of 5 or higher. The AUROCs, using all ordinal values, were 0.85 (95% CI, 0.80-0.90) for the UVA score, 0.81 (95% CI, 0.75-0.87) for the NEWS, 0.75 (95% CI, 0.69-0.82) for the MEWS, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.67-0.79) for the qSOFA score, and 0.63 (95% CI, 0.56-0.71) for the SIRS score. The AUROC for the UVA score was significantly greater than that for all other scores (P < .05 for all comparisons) except for NEWS (P = .08). Conclusions and Relevance: This prognostic study found that the NEWS and the UVA score performed favorably compared with other illness severity scores in predicting in-hospital mortality among a hospitalized cohort of adults with febrile illness in northern Tanzania. Given its reliance on readily available clinical data, the UVA score may have utility in the triage and prognostication of patients admitted to the hospital with febrile illness in low- to middle-income settings such as sub-Saharan Africa.

Trends in fever case management for febrile inpatients in a low malaria incidence setting of Tanzania.

OBJECTIVES: In 2010, WHO published guidelines emphasising parasitological confirmation of malaria before treatment. We present data on changes in fever case management in a low malaria transmission setting of northern Tanzania after 2010. METHODS: We compared diagnoses, treatments and outcomes from two hospital-based prospective cohort studies, Cohort 1 (2011-2014) and Cohort 2 (2016-2019), that enrolled febrile children and adults. All participants underwent quality-assured malaria blood smear-microscopy. Participants who were malaria smear-microscopy negative but received a diagnosis of malaria or received an antimalarial were categorised as malaria over-diagnosis and over-treatment, respectively. RESULTS: We analysed data from 2098 participants. The median (IQR) age was 27 (3-43) years and 1047 (50.0%) were female. Malaria was detected in 23 (2.3%) participants in Cohort 1 and 42 (3.8%) in Cohort 2 (p = 0.059). Malaria over-diagnosis occurred in 334 (35.0%) participants in Cohort 1 and 190 (17.7%) in Cohort 2 (p < 0.001). Malaria over-treatment occurred in 528 (55.1%) participants in Cohort 1 and 196 (18.3%) in Cohort 2 (p < 0.001). There were 30 (3.1%) deaths in Cohort 1 and 60 (5.4%) in Cohort 2 (p = 0.007). All deaths occurred among smear-negative participants. CONCLUSION: We observed a substantial decline in malaria over-diagnosis and over-treatment among febrile inpatients in northern Tanzania between two time periods after 2010. Despite changes, some smear-negative participants were still diagnosed and treated for malaria. Our results highlight the need for continued monitoring of fever case management across different malaria epidemiological settings in sub-Saharan Africa.

The accuracy of tactile assessment of canine nose temperature to identify rectal hyperthermia and hypothermia in dogs presenting on an emergency basis.

The goals of this study were to evaluate whether touch can identify a warm nose as opposed to a cold nose, to examine the correlation between thermographically measured nose temperatures and rectal temperatures, and to calculate the accuracy of tactile assessment of nose temperature in detecting rectal hyperthermia and hypothermia in dogs. A total of 100 dogs presenting to an emergency room was prospectively enrolled. Tactile nose assessment was carried out on triage. Noses were subjectively categorized as warm, cold, or intermediate (neither warm nor cold). Thermographic nose temperatures were recorded using a thermal imaging camera. Tactile assessment categorized noses as warm, intermediate, or cold (P < 0.01). There was no correlation between thermographically measured nose temperature and rectal temperature (r = 0.02). Tactile assessment of noses as warm had a sensitivity of 29.4% and a specificity of 79.5% for detecting rectal hyperthermia; calculated test accuracy was 71%. Tactile assessment of noses as cold had a sensitivity of 54.5% and a specificity of 62.9%; calculated test accuracy was 62%. It was concluded that nose temperatures do not correlate with rectal temperatures. Tactile assessment of nose temperature is inaccurate for identifying rectal hyperthermia or hypothermia.

Les objectifs de cette étude étaient d'évaluer si le toucher peut identifier un nez chaud par opposition à un nez froid, d'examiner la corrélation entre les températures nasales mesurées thermographiquement et les températures rectales, et de calculer la précision de l'évaluation tactile de la température nasale dans la détection de l'hyperthermie et l'hypothermie rectale chez le chien. Un total de 100 chiens se présentant aux urgences a été enrôlé de manière prospective. Une évaluation tactile du nez a été réalisée lors du triage. Les nez ont été classés subjectivement comme chaud, froid ou intermédiaire (ni chaud ni froid). Les températures thermographiques du nez ont été enregistrées à l'aide d'une caméra thermique. L'évaluation tactile a classé les nez comme chauds, intermédiaires ou froids (P < 0,01). Il n'y avait pas de corrélation entre la température nasale mesurée par thermographie et la température rectale (r = 0,02). L'évaluation tactile des nez chauds avait une sensibilité de 29,4 % et une spécificité de 79,5 % pour détecter l'hyperthermie rectale; la précision calculée du test était de 71 %. L'évaluation tactile des nez froids avait une sensibilité de 54,5 % et une spécificité de 62,9 %; la précision calculée du test était de 62 %. Il a été conclu que les températures nasales ne sont pas corrélées avec les températures rectales. L'évaluation tactile de la température du nez est imprécise pour identifier l'hyperthermie ou l'hypothermie rectale.(Traduit par les auteurs).

Modeling the survival times of the COVID-19 patients with a new statistical model: A case study from China.

Over the past few months, the spread of the current COVID-19 epidemic has caused tremendous damage worldwide, and unstable many countries economically. Detailed scientific analysis of this event is currently underway to come. However, it is very important to have the right facts and figures to take all possible actions that are needed to avoid COVID-19. In the practice and application of big data sciences, it is always of interest to provide the best description of the data under consideration. The recent studies have shown the potential of statistical distributions in modeling data in applied sciences, especially in medical science. In this article, we continue to carry this area of research, and introduce a new statistical model called the arcsine modified Weibull distribution. The proposed model is introduced using the modified Weibull distribution with the arcsine-X approach which is based on the trigonometric strategy. The maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the new model are obtained and the performance these estimators are assessed by conducting a Monte Carlo simulation study. Finally, the effectiveness and utility of the arcsine modified Weibull distribution are demonstrated by modeling COVID-19 patients data. The data set represents the survival times of fifty-three patients taken from a hospital in China. The practical application shows that the proposed model out-classed the competitive models and can be chosen as a good candidate distribution for modeling COVID-19, and other related data sets.

Cost Analysis of Emergency Department Criteria for Evaluation of Febrile Infants Ages 29 to 90 Days.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the medical costs associated with risk stratification criteria used to evaluate febrile infants 29-90 days of age. STUDY DESIGN: A cost analysis study was conducted evaluating the Boston, Rochester, Philadelphia, Step-by-Step, and PECARN criteria. The percentage of infants considered low risk and rates of missed infections were obtained from published literature. Emergency department costs were estimated from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. The Health Care Cost and Utilization Project databases were used to estimate the number of infants ages 29-90 days presenting with fever annually and costs for admissions related to missed infections. A probabilistic Markov model with a Dirichlet prior was used to estimate the transition probability distributions for each outcome, and a gamma distribution was used to model costs. A Markov simulation estimated the distribution of expected annual costs per infant and total annual costs. RESULTS: For low-risk infants, the mean cost per infant for the criteria were Rochester: $1050 (IQR $1004-$1092), Philadelphia: $1416 (IQR, $1365-$1465), Boston: $1460 (IQR, $1411-$1506), Step-by-Step $942 (IQR, $899-$981), and PECARN $1004 (IQR, $956-$1050). An estimated 18 522 febrile 1- to 3-month-old infants present annually and estimated total mean costs for their care by criteria were: Rochester, $127.3 million (IQR, $126.1-$128.5); Philadelphia, $129.9 million (IQR, $128.7-$131.1); Boston, $128.7 million (IQR, $127.5-$129.9); Step-by-Step, $ 126.6 million (IQR, $125.4-$127.8); and PECARN, $125.8 million (IQR, $124.6-$127). CONCLUSIONS: The Rochester, Step-by-step, and PECARN criteria are the least costly when evaluating infants 29-90 days of age with a fever.

Impact of a package of diagnostic tools, clinical algorithm, and training and communication on outpatient acute fever case management in low- and middle-income countries: protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The management of acute febrile illnesses places a heavy burden on clinical services in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Bacterial and viral aetiologies of acute fevers are often clinically indistinguishable and, in the absence of diagnostic tests, the 'just-in-case' use of antibiotics by many health workers has become common practice, which has an impact on drug-resistant infections. Our study aims to answer the following question: in patients with undifferentiated febrile illness presenting to outpatient clinics/peripheral health centres in LMICs, can we demonstrate an improvement in clinical outcomes and reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescription over current practice by using a combination of simple, accurate diagnostic tests, clinical algorithms, and training and communication (intervention package)? METHODS: We designed a randomized, controlled clinical trial to evaluate the impact of our intervention package on clinical outcomes and antibiotic prescription rates in acute febrile illnesses. Available, point-of-care, pathogen-specific and non-pathogen specific (host markers), rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) included in the intervention package were selected based on pre-defined criteria. Nine clinical study sites in six countries (Burkina Faso, Ghana, India, Myanmar, Nepal and Uganda), which represent heterogeneous outpatient care settings, were selected. We considered the expected seasonal variations in the incidence of acute febrile illnesses across all the sites by ensuring a recruitment period of 12 months. A master protocol was developed and adapted for country-specific ethical submissions. Diagnostic algorithms and choice of RDTs acknowledged current data on aetiologies of acute febrile illnesses in each country. We included a qualitative evaluation of drivers and/or deterrents of uptake of new diagnostics and antibiotic use for acute febrile illnesses. Sample size estimations were based on historical site data of antibiotic prescription practices for malarial and non-malarial acute fevers. Overall, 9 semi-independent studies will enrol a minimum of 21,876 patients and an aggregate data meta-analysis will be conducted on completion. DISCUSSION: This study is expected to generate vital evidence needed to inform policy decisions on the role of rapid diagnostic tests in the clinical management of acute febrile illnesses, with a view to controlling the rise of antimicrobial resistance in LMICs. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT04081051 . Registered on 6 September 2019. Protocol version 1.4 dated 20 December 2019.