A review of foot-and-mouth disease in Ethiopia: epidemiological aspects, economic implications, and control strategies.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a contagious viral disease that affects the livelihoods and productivity of livestock farmers in endemic regions. It can infect various domestic and wild animals with cloven hooves and is caused by a virus belonging to the genus Aphthovirus and family Picornaviridae, which has seven different serotypes: A, O, C, SAT1, SAT2, SAT3, and Asia-1. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the molecular epidemiology, economic impact, diagnosis, and control measures of FMD in Ethiopia in comparison with the global situation. The genetic and antigenic diversity of FMD viruses requires a thorough understanding for developing and applying effective control strategies in endemic areas. FMD has direct and indirect economic consequences on animal production. In Ethiopia, FMD outbreaks have led to millions of USD losses due to the restriction or rejection of livestock products in the international market. Therefore, in endemic areas, disease control depends on vaccinations to prevent animals from developing clinical disease. However, in Ethiopia, due to the presence of diverse antigenic serotypes of FMD viruses, regular and extensive molecular investigation of new field isolates is necessary to perform vaccine-matching studies to evaluate the protective potential of the vaccine strain in the country.

Quantitative risk assessment of FMDV introduction in a FMD free country through bone-in beef and offal importation from a FMD free with vaccination country/zone.

Quantitative risk assessment was used to estimate the risk of introducing foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) through bone-in beef from Argentina (FMD-free with vaccination status) into other FMD-free countries. A stochastic model was built to characterize all the steps from primary production to bone-in beef export and introduction into an FMD-free country. The probability that bone-in beef from at least one animal infected with the FMD virus (FMDV) was exported during a year was 5.27 × 10-3 (95% CI <10-10 - 5.19 x 10-2) or in other words one case in 190 years. The risk of FMDV introduction was sensitive to the probability of an outbreak occurring in Argentina (r [Spearman´s rank correlation] = 0.99) and the number of herds affected during an outbreak (r = 0.10). Additionally, the probability that susceptible animals in the importing country came into contact with infective material (bones) and generated an outbreak was 6.16 × 10-4 (95% CI <10-10 - 6.20 ×10-3) or one FMD outbreak every 1623 years on average. Based on the quantitative risk assessment results, the probability of FMDV introduction into a FMD-free country where vaccination is not practiced from a FMD-free country where vaccination is practiced associated with bone-in beef trade from Argentina was negligible. The risk of an FMD outbreak caused by the potential introduction of the FMDV was associated with the existing conditions in the country. Thus, maintaining the FMD-free status with or without vaccination would not be relevant.

Decision tree risk analysis for FMD outbreak prevention in Egyptian feedlots.

Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is one of the most contagious and economically influential viral diseases on animal health and productivity. Introduction of newly purchased animals to beef farms constitutes a greater risk for the FMD outbreaks in endemic countries. Physical examination of newly purchased animals in live animal markets and/or at the receiving farm, and the timing of preventative FMD vaccination may reduce the risk of FMD outbreaks under endemic conditions. Small (< 50 animals) and medium (50-500 animals) sized beef farms in Egypt constitute more than 60% of the country's beef industry where protocols for receiving newly purchased animals vary widely between farms. The current risk analysis aimed to build a decision tree model to reduce FMD outbreaks associated with introduction of replacement cattle on Egypt's medium sized beef farms. Management practices explored were the use of physical examinations and FMD vaccination and their timing for replacements with the goal of reducing losses due to FMD outbreaks. A producer survey revealed that more than 50% of the study herds relied on live animal markets as a source for replacements and reported more FMD outbreaks (P-value=0.09), FMD herd morbidity > 50% (p-value=0.05), and weight loss > 15 kg/animal in FMD clinical cases (P-value=0.01) in comparison to herds that received replacements from other farms, imported, or purchased from small stakeholders. More than 70% of the surveyed farms received replacements ≤ 1year old and reported significantly higher FMD outbreaks (P-value=0.02) in comparison to farms that received older animals. More than 80% of the surveyed farms performed physical examination of newly purchased animals before arrival at their premises. Of the surveyed farms, 73% reported FMD outbreaks with 67% of the outbreaks being reported during the Fall and Winter seasons. The decision tree identified physical examination of newly purchased animals prior to arrival and mixing with a premises beef herd followed by vaccination against FMD upon arrival as the intervention resulting in the lowest probability of FMD outbreak (8.9%). In contrast, herds that did not perform physical examination and delay the FMD vaccination for two or more weeks had the highest probability of FMD outbreaks (33.5%).

A cost-benefit analysis of Vietnam's 2006-2010 foot-and-mouth disease control program.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is arguably the most damaging animal disease, affecting three-quarters of the global livestock population. This paper provides a cost-benefit analysis of the first five-year program that used vaccination to contain and control FMD in an endemic country, Vietnam. Our spatial and dynamic model to simulate FMD outbreaks fully considered the distance among livestock premises, their herd sizes, and composition, all of which significantly affect FMD transmission. Our program benefit was consistently estimated due to the Law of Large Number and the design of pairing the control and treatment scenarios which allowed capturing the true benefit of each outbreak realization. The data used to monetize the program benefit were largely drawn from Vietnam's context and statistics, thus obviating the need to make many potentially undue assumptions. Meanwhile, the program costs were actual spending and allocated budget. We found that the vaccination program is highly cost-effective for Vietnam, yielding a net present value of US$136 million (in 2006 prices) over five years and a benefit-cost ratio of 5.7. Our results were robust to different assumptions about the vaccine effectiveness of the livestock unit.

Assessment of the foot-and-mouth disease surveillance system in Brazil.

In 2021, the 88th General Session of the World Assembly of National Delegates to the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) recognized the estates of Acre, Paraná, the Rio Grande do Sul, and Rondônia as being free of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) without vaccination. The certification was also extended to some cities in Amazonas and Mato Grosso. The new national strategic plan for 2026, which focuses on creating and maintaining sustainable conditions to expand FMD-free zones without vaccination, imposes new challenges and requires continuous evaluation of the FMD surveillance system. The objective of this research was to evaluate the FMD surveillance system in Brazil using quantitative models through Bayesian network approaches. The research was conducted using the Continental Surveillance and Information System (SivCont) database for Official Veterinary Services in Brazil, which refers to notified vesicular syndromes. The data on states, reported diseases, source of notification, disease confirmation, and timeliness (TL in days) of the delay by owners in notifying (TL.1) after a suspected case of the disease, and the response of Brazilian Veterinary Services after being notified (TL.2), were analysed. The collected data were analysed using Bayesian networks. It was observed that diseases with symptoms identical to FMD are the most notified events. TL.1 was long (mean of 18.96, CI: 18.33-19.59), and a low number of notifications was observed throughout the study period, which increases the chances of disseminating FMD in the population. Meanwhile, TL.2 suggests appropriate effectiveness of the Veterinary Services responding to suspected cases of FMD with interventions in less than 24 h (mean of 1, CI: 0.68-1.31). This study evaluated the performance of Brazilian Veterinary Services facing the report of vesicular diseases in the period 2004-2018. The results can help the states improve the surveillance system and the transition to the vaccination stop. Furthermore, the analytical method presented in the paper could serve as a model for other countries to evaluate the effectiveness of FMD surveillance systems.

A systematic review of the methods used to analyze the economic impact of endemic foot-and-mouth disease.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) has large economic consequences in livestock systems, which must be robustly assessed to support disease control policy. This study described and assessed methods used within economic analyses of FMD and its control in endemic contexts. A systematic literature search was conducted in six academic search engines. Studies were included if they applied an economic analysis to a context with endemic FMD, producing a result articulated as a monetary figure. Data collected from each article included country of study, animal population, geographical level of analysis, time horizon and type of economic analysis. Each study was scored using a quality assessment tool containing a checklist of 42 reporting criteria. Sixty-four articles were included, from 12,087 identified in the searches, describing results for 26 countries. Over half of the articles (56%) described economic impact of FMD retrospectively, often only accounting for a selection of direct costs at farm or household level. Median quality score calculated was 41% (range 8%-86%). Methods were generally poorly reported, confirming previously described difficulties in using published data to evaluate economic impact of endemic FMD. Few studies included disaggregation of public and private costs, or benefits, of FMD control, or accounted for economic or social influences of scale in vaccination programmes. Many of the studies included had gaps in both premise and methodology. If these analyses are used when planning and budgeting FMD control programmes in endemic contexts, there is a risk of inefficient resource allocation.

The economic benefits of targeted response strategies against foot-and-mouth disease in Australia.

Recent developments in control of highly infectious diseases attempt to improve emergency response efforts by more clearly focusing or targeting response tools according to risk. For example, advances in surveillance testing and sampling deliver their results by more accurately and precisely targeting the population of interest. In this work, targeted implementation of trading zones and vaccination were examined for simulated outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Australia. Trading zones allowing unaffected Australian states to resume exports following an outbreak of FMD were assessed using multiple tools. A Victorian incursion scenario with traditional stamping out and vaccination as control options, was simulated using the AADIS model Version 2.47, to characterise the geographic extent of potential outbreaks, the number of animals infected, and the date of last cull indicating duration of the outbreak. Information on disease spread from the AADIS simulations was then used to identify the boundaries of trading zones for the incursion scenario, in which vaccination with trading zones was found to further reduce disease impacts relative to stamping out alone with trading zones. The number of animals culled due to disease provided supply shocks for stamping out alone and vaccinate-to-retain, while the number of vaccinated animals was added to the number of animals culled due to disease for the supply shock of vaccinate-to-remove. The day of last cull was combined with historical FMD trade recovery and Australian export data to estimate the share of Australian exports that would be embargoed under trading zones. The market impacts - changes in equilibrium quantities and prices - of the supply shock, trading zones, and consumer reactions - were simulated within ABARES' AgEmissions partial equilibrium model of Australian agriculture. For this simulated large outbreak, where vaccinate-to-remove was utilised along with trading zones, producer losses were reduced by AUD 4 billion in present value terms over 10 years estimated at a 7% discount rate (PV10,7%) compared to an outbreak where stamping out alone is applied with trading zones. Introducing FMD virus risk mitigation measures for wool to further target trading zones reduced the economic impacts by an additional AUD 3.6 billion (PV10,7%). Outbreak response cost savings and additional potential costs under vaccinate-to-retain with trading zones were also compared to the vaccinate-to-remove control with trading zones. Results emphasised the importance of outbreak characteristics in determining trading zones and targeting of vaccination. Economic analyses identified how additional investments in targeting outbreak response is of value to producers.

Economic benefits of implementing trading zones for Australian livestock disease outbreaks of limited duration.

OBJECTIVE: The objective is to estimate the economic benefits of trading zones as part of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control measures for limited duration outbreaks. DESIGN: The proposed trading zones for FMD at the state level are determined using multiple tools. Eleven individual incursion scenarios in six Australian states are simulated within the Australian Animal Disease Spread epidemiological model to identify the potential geographic extent of outbreaks, as well as the number of animals infected and the duration of outbreaks. The disease spread information is used to identify the boundaries of trading zones. The outbreak duration data are combined with historical export data to estimate the share of Australian exports that could be embargoed. The market impacts of the potential export embargoes including changes in equilibrium quantities, prices and revenue are simulated within the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences' AgEmissions partial equilibrium model of Australian agriculture. RESULTS: Results emphasize the importance of jurisdictional and outbreak characteristics in determining trading zones. Should Australia effectively implement trading zones at the state level in response to small FMD outbreaks, the potential reductions of embargoed exports lead to a reduction in estimated producer revenue losses compared with losses under a national embargo. Producer revenue losses are reduced between $3 billion and $9 billion estimated in present value terms over 10 years at a 7% discount rate. CONCLUSION: Economic analysis of the implications of trading zones identifies additional investments that would be of value to livestock industries.

A cost-benefit analysis of foot and mouth disease control program for smallholder cattle farmers in Cambodia.

The Cambodian government is attempting to mobilise government, donor and private sector funding to implement a coordinated FMD vaccination program (FMDVP). A necessary first step is to convince the farmers of the benefits of participating in and potentially financially supporting this program. Information was collected from 300 farmers in order to estimate the on-farm benefits and costs of their participation in an FMDVP. Implementing a successful vaccination program is difficult, and farmers understand from previous experience that there may be institutional, social, technical and financial constraints which limit its success. A benefit-cost analysis needs to take into account that outbreaks do not occur every year, not all cattle will be successfully vaccinated, not all sick animals successfully treated and sometimes sick animals simply sold. This study sensitises these variables in order to give a realistic estimation of the farmer participation benefits in an FMDVP. A general result is that it is worthwhile for farmers to participate in the FMDVP if there are average annual outbreaks, or at least two major outbreaks, in the ensuing 5 years. However, the results are influenced by the interaction of vaccination success and treatment success and coverage. Ineffective coverage and poor treatment of sick animals reduce the benefits of an FMDVP. It is also important that farmers do not sell sick stock and, if they do, that they are able to breed replacements rather than purchase replacements. There are many factors in the smallholder cattle farming system that will influence the success of an FMDVP; farmers will only choose to participate if they can be convinced of the short and long-term economic benefits.

A qualitative risk assessment indicates moderate risk of foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in cattle in the lower Okavango Delta because of interaction with buffaloes.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) was first documented in domestic stock in Botswana in the early 1930s and since then the country opted for eradication of FMD from all her livestock-rearing areas. A multipronged control strategy was adopted along the pathway towards eradication that initially included strategic apthisation of cloven-hooved domestic stock up to 1964, movement restriction through cordon fences and quarantine system from the 1950s, and vaccination using readily available commercial vaccines from the mid-1960s, to date. This has resulted in 78% of the country's land area being officially declared and recognized by the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) as FMD free without vaccination. However, the disease has remained endemic in the northern parts of the country, owing largely to co-existence of livestock and wildlife. We applied a qualitative risk analysis method in our study to assess the risk of FMD outbreak in zone 2 because of interaction between cattle and buffalo across a man-made physical barrier, southern buffalo fence, in the north of the country. The assessed risk was rated 'moderate' with moderate level of uncertainty, meaning assessment of mitigation options should be done before authorising import of cattle and cattle product from zone 2. Because of cost escalation associated with FMD controls, particularly zoning with cordon fences in the face of relentless trampling by elephants, we concluded that there is a need to revise the national goal of country-wide eradication of FMD in livestock rearing areas to a more achievable outcome for zone 2. We recommend adoption of husbandry management practices and marketing approaches that recognizes co-existence of cattle and wildlife in zone 2 as an exception to the rest of the country. Such an approach should be rooted not on geographic occurrence of FMD nor separation of the two species but on food product safety guarantees along the value chain, and we believe this to be critical for sustainability of FMD management and livelihoods in zone 2.

Assessment of foot-and-mouth disease risk areas in mainland China based spatial multi-criteria decision analysis.

BACKGROUND: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. As a transboundary animal disease, the prevention and control of FMD are important. This study was based on spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess FMD risk areas in mainland China. Ten risk factors were identified for constructing risk maps by scoring, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to calculate the criteria weights of all factors. Different risk factors had different units and attributes, and fuzzy membership was used to standardize the risk factors. The weighted linear combination (WLC) and one-at-a-time (OAT) were used to obtain risk and uncertainty maps as well as to perform sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: Four major risk areas were identified in mainland China, including western (parts of Xinjiang and Tibet), southern (parts of Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi, Sichuan and Guangdong), northern (parts of Gansu, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia), and eastern (parts of Hebei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shandong). Spring is the main season for FMD outbreaks. Risk areas were associated with the distance to previous outbreak points, grazing areas and cattle density. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicated that the risk map had good predictive power (AUC=0.8634). CONCLUSIONS: These results can be used to delineate FMD risk areas in mainland China, and veterinary services can adopt the targeted preventive measures and control strategies.

Cost-benefit and feasibility analysis for establishing a foot-and-mouth disease free zone in Rukwa region in Tanzania.

Tanzania has the second largest livestock population in Africa and livestock keeping is an integral part of most people's livelihoods. Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a transboundary disease, affecting cloven-hoofed animals, that is currently endemic in Tanzania. The Tanzania Development Vision 2025 aspires to make the livestock sector more competitive. Part of this plan foresees establishing a FMD-free zone in the Rukwa region to be able to increase the export of animals and animal products. The aim of this study was to assess the economic efficiency and feasibility of establishing such an FMD-free zone and to advise policy makers on the profitability of the investment. A stochastic benefit-cost model, set-up in Palisade @Risk for Excel for a time frame of ten years, was developed to assess whether the benefits of establishing a FMD-free zone would outweigh the costs. Data were collated from reviewing literature, government statistics, and key informant interviews with farmers, traders and veterinarians in Tanzania, and complemented by informed assumptions and expert opinion. Moreover, feasibility aspects including underlying infrastructure, market structures and resource availability were discussed based on key informant interviews, literature review and historical analyses. The net present value for the establishment of a FMD-free zone was negative and the benefit-cost ratio was below one (mean 0.09, min 0.05 - max 0.15 in the scenario considering vaccination of all susceptible domestic animals, and mean 0.11, min 0.06 - max 0.20 when considering vaccinating cattle only), excluding potential benefits from trade. The sensitivity analysis showed that variables related to the cost of vaccination had the largest negative impact on the net present value. The proposed FMD-free zone in Rukwa region is unlikely to be cost-effective with the current FMD status and export trade prospects in Tanzania. Interviews with stakeholders revealed that vaccine availability, funding, farmers' willingness to participate, and lack of staff continuity in key roles were the main barriers to establish a reliable FMD control programme in the country. Recommendations towards FMD control and potential short and middle term strategies are discussed.

What drives small-scale farmers to vaccinate their multiple livestock species animals against common infectious diseases in Myanmar?

Livestock rearing is an important income source for small-scale farmers in Myanmar, but Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and Newcastle disease (ND) are major constraints to livestock production. A study was conducted to identify perceptions of farmers about FMD and ND disease risks and perceptions about vaccination practices by using the modified health belief model. The majority of livestock farmers (>70%) reported that they were aware of the risk and impact of FMD and ND and were willing to vaccinate their livestock (>60%). Focusing on three main livestock farmer groups, about 17.0% of cattle, 15.4% of village chicken, but only 2.3% of small ruminant owners, indicated that the non-availability of vaccinations in the villages was the major constraint to vaccinations (p<0.001), while in contrast twice as many small ruminant farmers compared to cattle and village chicken farmers indicated they had no knowledge about vaccinations and no funds to conduct vaccinations. Limited accessibility to vaccines and vaccinators was related to size of villages (p = 0.001 for cattle; p = 0.027 for small ruminants; p = 0.005 for village chicken). Willingness to vaccinate small ruminants against FMD was associated with the perceived impact of the disease on sales and accessibility of information about vaccination. Accessibility to information about ND vaccination influenced the willingness of village chicken farmers to conduct vaccinations. In addition, beliefs in the effectiveness of vaccinations played a major role in the willingness to carry out vaccinations on both, cattle (ß = 0.3, p = 0.018) and village chicken farms (ß = 0.5, p<0.001). Our study highlights that policies that increase the accessibility of vaccines and the dissemination of information about disease prevention and vaccination practices in villages of all sizes, have the potential to increase FMD and ND vaccination rates and thereby reduce outbreak occurrence in Myanmar. On the other hand, indirect factors, such as village size strongly influenced the availability of vaccinations.

Targeted FMD Vaccines for Eastern Africa: The AgResults Foot and Mouth Disease Vaccine Challenge Project

As one of the most infectious livestock diseases in the world, foot and mouth disease (FMD) presents a constant global threat to animal trade and national economies. FMD remains a severe constraint on development and poverty reduction throughout the developing world due to many reasons, including the cost of control measures, closure of access to valuable global FMD-free markets for livestock products, production losses through reduced milk yield, reduced live weight gain, and the inability of infected livestock to perform traction. FMD virus infects a variety of cloven-hoofed animals, including cattle, sheep, goats, swine, all wild ruminants, and suidae, with high morbidity in adult animals. High mortality can occur in young animals due to myocarditis. FMD is endemic in Africa, most of Asia, the Middle East, and parts of South America. The global clustering of FMD viruses has been divided into seven virus pools, where multiple serotypes occur but within which are topotypes that remain mostly confined to that pool. Three pools cover Europe, the Middle East, and Asia; three pools cover Africa; and one pool covers the Americas. The highly infectious nature of FMDV, the existence of numerous continually circulating serotypes and associated topotypes, the potential for wildlife reservoirs, and the frequent emergence of new strains that are poorly matched to existing vaccines all serve to compound the difficulties faced by the governments of endemic countries to effectively control and reduce the burden of the disease at the national and regional levels. This clustering of viruses suggests that if vaccination is to be a major tool for control, each pool could benefit from the use of tailored or more specific vaccines relevant to the topotypes present in that pool, rather than a continued reliance on the currently more widely available vaccines. It should also be noted that, currently, there are varying degrees of effort to identify improved vaccines in different regions. There are relatively few targeted for use in Africa, while the developed world's vaccine banks have a good stock of vaccines destined for emergency outbreak use in FMDV-free countries. The AgResults Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) Vaccine Challenge Project (the "Project") is an eight-year, US $17.68 million prize competition that supports the development and uptake of high-quality quadrivalent FMD vaccines tailored to meet the needs of Eastern Africa (EA). The Project targets the following Pool Four countries: Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. The Project is being run in two phases: a development phase, which will encourage the production of regionally relevant vaccines, and a cost-share phase, designed to help to reduce the price of these vaccines in the marketplace to the end users, which is hoped will encourage broader uptake. Manufacturers can submit quadrivalent FMD vaccines containing serotypes A, O, SAT1, and SAT2, which will be assessed as relevant for use in the region through a unique component of the Project requiring the screening of vaccines against the Eastern Africa Foot and Mouth Disease Virus Reference Antigen Panel assembled by the World Reference Laboratory for FMD (WRLFMD), at the Pirbright Institute, UK, in collaboration with the OIE/FAO FMD Reference Laboratory Network. To be eligible for the Project, sera from vaccinated cattle will be used to evaluate serological responses of FMD vaccines for their suitability for use in Eastern African countries. If they pass a determined cut-off threshold, they will be confirmed as relevant for use in the region and will be entered into the Project's cost-share phase.

Risk assessment and integrated surveillance of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Russia based on Monte Carlo simulation.

BACKGROUND: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious disease of livestock worldwide. Russia is a big agricultural country with a wide geographical area where FMD outbreaks have become an obstacle for the development of the animal and animal products trade. In this study, we aimed to assess the export risk of FMD from Russia. RESULTS: After simulation by Monte Carlo, the results showed that the probability of cattle infected with FMD in the surveillance zone (Surrounding the areas where no epidemic disease has occurred within the prescribed time limit, the construction of buffer areas is called surveillance zone.) of Russia was 1.29 × 10- 6. The probability that at least one FMD positive case was exported from Russia per year in the surveillance zone was 6 %. The predicted number of positive cattle of the 39,530 - 50,576 exported from Russia per year was 0.06. A key node in the impact model was the probability of occurrence of FMD outbreaks in the Russian surveillance zone. By semi-quantitative model calculation, the risk probability of FMD defense system defects was 1.84 × 10- 5, indicating that there was a potential risk in the prevention and control measures of FMD in Russia. The spatial time scan model found that the most likely FMD cluster (P < 0.01) was in the Eastern and Siberian Central regions. CONCLUSIONS: There was a risk of FMDV among cattle exported from Russia, and the infection rate of cattle in the monitored area was the key factor. Understanding the export risk of FMD in Russia and relevant epidemic prevention measures will help policymakers to develop targeted surveillance plans.

The risk factor assessment of the spread of foot-and-mouth disease in mainland China.

In China, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) serotype O remains prevalent, and its main host is pigs. Infected but undiscovered pigs can carry foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) for a longtime. And, the virus can spread among farms through pig trade. Although individual vaccination at least 2 times a year and monthly monitoring disease and culling all individual in same group for pigs are adopted vigorously in China, the epidemic remains prevalent. Therefore, in this paper, based on these propagation characteristics and control measures of the epidemic in China, we take the pig farms as research individuals, the trade among farms as transmission routes to establish a dynamic model with nonlinear incidence. In addition, we use this model to assess the impact of trade and transport of pigs among farms on the spread of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), and to assess the effect of the immunization, monitoring and culling adopted presently in China on the control of the epidemic. By the dynamical analysis of the model, it is found that there will appear backward branching under some conditions, which means that there are two spreading thresholds for the disease, and the disease development trend is also related to the current epidemic situation. Besides, we give the threshold conditions of key parameters to control the spread of FMD. By carrying out data fitting and parameter estimation, we confirm the model rationality, and give four evaluation indexes: the basic reproduction number R0 of FMD serotype O in China, the value of the infected farms at the equilibria, annual probability of a susceptible farm being infected and annual transmission intensity of an infected farm. By carrying out the sensitivity analysis of key parameters on four evaluation indexes, the effect of parameters on the spread of the disease can be intuitively observed. All these can provide a theoretical basis for understanding of the trading-based transmission mechanism, control and prevention of foot-and-mouth disease in pigs in China.

Risks of introduction and economic consequences associated with African swine fever, classical swine fever and foot-and-mouth disease: A review of the literature.

African swine fever (ASF), classical swine fever (CSF) and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) are considered to be three of the most detrimental animal diseases and are currently foreign to the U.S. Emerging and re-emerging pathogens can have tremendous impacts in terms of livestock morbidity and mortality events, production losses, forced trade restrictions, and costs associated with treatment and control. The United States is the world's top producer of beef for domestic and export use and the world's third-largest producer and consumer of pork and pork products; it has also recently been either the world's largest or second largest exporter of pork and pork products. Understanding the routes of introduction into the United States and the potential economic impact of each pathogen are crucial to (a) allocate resources to prevent routes of introduction that are believed to be more probable, (b) evaluate cost and efficacy of control methods and (c) ensure that protections are enacted to minimize impact to the most vulnerable industries. With two scoping literature reviews, pulled from global data, this study assesses the risk posed by each disease in the event of a viral introduction into the United States and illustrates what is known about the economic costs and losses associated with an outbreak.

Farmers' willingness to pay for foot and mouth disease vaccine in different cattle production systems in Amhara region of Ethiopia.

Although foot and mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in Ethiopia, use of vaccines to control the disease has been practiced sparingly. This is due to perceived high cost of good quality FMD vaccine, and consequently limited availability of the vaccine in the market. This study was conducted to assess farmers' willingness to pay (WTP) for a quality FMD vaccine and identify factors that could potentially influence their WTP in Amhara region of Ethiopia. A total of 398 farmers from four districts that represent the mixed crop-livestock and market oriented production systems were enrolled for the study. The WTP was estimated using contingent valuation method with a double-bound dichotomous choice bid design. Interval regression analysis was used to estimate mean WTP and identify factors that influence it. The results showed that the mean WTP of all farmers was Ethiopian Birr (ETB) 58.23 (95% CI: 56.20-60.26)/annual dose. It was ETB 75.23 (95% CI: 72. 97-74.49) for market oriented farmers and ETB 42.6 (95%CI: 41.24-43.96) for mixed crop livestock farmers. Willingness to pay for the vaccine was significantly higher for farmers in market oriented system than in mixed crop livestock system. It was also significantly higher for farmers whose main livelihood is livestock than those whose main livelihood is other than livestock, and for farmers who keep exotic breed cattle and their crosses than those who keep only local cattle breeds. Willingness to pay significantly increased with increase in FMD impact perception and vaccine knowledge scores of farmers. The high mean WTP estimates showed that farmers are enthusiastic about using the FMD vaccine. Market-oriented farmers with higher willingness to pay may be more likely to pay full cost if official FMD vaccination is planned in the country than mixed crop livestock farmers. Animal health extension about livestock diseases impact and vaccines has a potential to increase farmers' uptake of vaccines for disease control.

Adverse effects of foot-and-mouth disease vaccine in dairy cattle / Efeitos adversos da vacina contra febre aftosa em bovinos de leite

Foot-and-mouth disease represents an important barrier to the international commerce of animal products, potentially associated with significant economic losses. The systematic vaccination of bovines and buffaloes was fundamental for the eradication of this disease; however, the use of vaccines can lead to reactions at the application site. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effects of the vaccination protocol to the production of dairy cows and to observe the occurrence of vaccinal reactions in the animals. At one property located in the municipality of Salvador do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul, 270 dairy cows were vaccinated against foot-and-mouth disease in May 2019. The vaccine was administered via a subcutaneous application using disposable syringes and needles for each animal. Inspection of the animals was performed before and 20 days after the vaccination to verify the presence of reactions to the vaccine. The study's sample was set by convenience, including 203 lactating animals with or without bovine somatotropin (BST) administration during the data collection period, which was limited to 20 days before and 20 days after the vaccination. Milk production data was obtained through SmartDairy® HerdMetrix™ software, tabulated in electronic spreadsheets using Microsoft Excel® and processed using the program SAS®, considering a 5% significance level for mixed model statistical analysis. A total of 160 animals (78.82%) presented local lesions at the application site, even when the recommended vaccination practices were followed, suggesting that the high reaction power was provoked by the vaccinal components. In regards to milk production, a statistically significant (p<0.05) decrease of 0.30kg of milk per animal/day was observed in the average daily production in the 20 days post-vaccination. These results demonstrate the local and systemic effects caused by the foot-and-mouth disease vaccine, evidenced by reduced levels of milk production and the occurrence of vaccine reactions, implying significant economic losses.(AU)

A febre aftosa representa uma importante barreira no comércio internacional de produtos de origem animal, podendo acarretar em significativas perdas econômicas. A vacinação sistemática de bovinos e bubalinos foi fundamental para a erradicação da doença. No entanto, a utilização de vacinas pode causar reações no local da aplicação. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar os efeitos da vacina em bovinos leiteiros e observar a incidência de reações vacinais no local de aplicação. O estudo foi realizado numa propriedade leiteira do município de Salvador do Sul, Rio Grande do Sul, onde foram vacinados 270 bovinos contra febre aftosa no mês de maio de 2019. A vacina foi administrada por via subcutânea, com seringas e agulhas descartáveis para cada animal. Foi realizada inspeção dos animais antes da vacinação e 21 dias após a vacinação, para verificar a presença de reações vacinais. A amostra foi definida por conveniência, incluindo 203 vacas em lactação com ou sem administração de somatotropina bovina (BST) durante o período de coleta de dados, que l foi de 20 dias antes e 20 dias após a vacinação. Estes dados de produção de leite foram obtidos através do software SmartDairy® HerdMetrix™, tabulados em planilhas eletrônicas do Microsoft Excel® e processados usando o programa SAS®, considerando 5% de nível de significância para uma análise estatística modelo misto. Foi observado que 160 (78,82%) vacas apresentaram lesões no local de aplicação, mesmo quando a aplicação era realizada de acordo com as boas práticas de vacinação, o que indica o alto poder de reação provocada pelos componentes da vacina. Em relação à produção de leite, observou-se uma redução significativa (p<0,05) na produção média diária de 0,30kg de leite por animal/dia nos 21 dias após a vacinação. Esses resultados demonstram os efeitos locais e sistêmicos provocados pela vacina da febre aftosa, evidenciados pela redução na produção de leite e pela incidência de reações vacinais, o que implica em significativas perdas econômicas.(AU)