Co-occurrence probabilities between mosquito vectors of West Nile and Eastern equine encephalitis viruses using Markov Random Fields (MRFcov).

Mosquito vectors of eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEV) and West Nile virus (WNV) in the USA reside within broad multi-species assemblages that vary in spatial and temporal composition, relative abundances and vector competence. These variations impact the risk of pathogen transmission and the operational management of these species by local public health vector control districts. However, most models of mosquito vector dynamics focus on single species and do not account for co-occurrence probabilities between mosquito species pairs across environmental gradients. In this investigation, we use for the first time conditional Markov Random Fields (CRF) to evaluate spatial co-occurrence patterns between host-seeking mosquito vectors of EEEV and WNV around sampling sites in Manatee County, Florida. Specifically, we aimed to: (i) quantify correlations between mosquito vector species and other mosquito species; (ii) quantify correlations between mosquito vectors and landscape and climate variables; and (iii) investigate whether the strength of correlations between species pairs are conditional on landscape or climate variables. We hypothesized that either mosquito species pairs co-occur in patterns driven by the landscape and/or climate variables, or these vector species pairs are unconditionally dependent on each other regardless of the environmental variables. Our results indicated that landscape and bioclimatic covariates did not substantially improve the overall model performance and that the log abundances of the majority of WNV and EEEV vector species were positively dependent on other vector and non-vector mosquito species, unconditionally. Only five individual mosquito vectors were weakly dependent on environmental variables with one exception, Culiseta melanura, the primary vector for EEEV, which showed a strong correlation with woody wetland, precipitation seasonality and average temperature of driest quarter. Our analyses showed that majority of the studied mosquito species' abundance and distribution are insignificantly better predicted by the biotic correlations than by environmental variables. Additionally, these mosquito vector species may be habitat generalists, as indicated by the unconditional correlation matrices between species pairs, which could have confounded our analysis, but also indicated that the approach could be operationalized to leverage species co-occurrences as indicators of vector abundances in unsampled areas, or under scenarios where environmental variables are not informative.

Assessment of Truck-Mounted Area-Wide S-methoprene Applications to Manage West Nile Virus Vector Species in the Suburbs of Chicago, IL, USA.

West Nile virus remains the leading cause of arboviral neuroinvasive disease in the United States, despite extensive efforts to control the mosquito vectors involved in transmission. In this study, we evaluated the effectiveness of Altosid SR-20 (active ingredient, S-methoprene 20%) larvicide applications using truck-mounted ultra-low volume (ULV) dispersal equipment to target Culex pipiens Linnaeus (Diptera: Culicidae) and Cx. restuans (Theobald)larvae. A combination of emergence bioassays, open-field measurements of deposited S-methoprene and spray distribution using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, and assessments of adult Culex spp. populations in response to applications were conducted over the summer of 2020 within the North Shore Mosquito Abatement District (IL, USA). Open-field applications revealed that dispersed Altosid SR-20 using ULV equipment was effective (75% emergence inhibition in susceptible lab strain Cx. pipiens larvae) up to 53 m. In suburban neighborhood applications, we found that S-methoprene deposition and larval emergence inhibition (EI) in front yards did not differ significantly from backyards. An overall EI of 46% and 28% were observed for laboratory strain Cx. pipiens and wild Cx. restuans larvae respectively, and both had an EI significantly higher than the untreated control group. The EI of exposed wild Cx. pipiens larvae did not differ from the untreated controls, suggesting an increased tolerance to S-methoprene. No difference in abundance of gravid or host-seeking adult Culex spp. post-application was detected between treated and untreated sites. These results document the ability of area-wide application to distribute S-methoprene, but this strategy will need further modifications and evaluation for Culex spp. management.

Assessment of the Costs Related to West Nile Virus Monitoring in Lombardy Region (Italy) between 2014 and 2018.

In Italy, the West Nile Virus surveillance plan considers a multidisciplinary approach to identify the presence of the virus in the environment (entomological, ornithological, and equine surveillance) and to determine the risk of infections through potentially infected donors (blood and organ donors). The costs associated with the surveillance program for the Lombardy Region between 2014 and 2018 were estimated. The costs of the program were compared with a scenario in which the program was not implemented, requiring individual blood donation nucleic acid amplification tests (NAT) to detect the presence of WNV in human samples throughout the seasonal period of vector presence. Considering the five-year period, the application of the environmental/veterinary surveillance program allowed a reduction in costs incurred in the Lombardy Region of 7.7 million EUR. An integrated surveillance system, including birds, mosquito vectors, and dead-end hosts such as horses and humans, can prevent viral transmission to the human population, as well as anticipate the detection of WNV using NAT in blood and organ donors. The surveillance program within a One Health context has given the possibility to both document the expansion of the endemic area of WNV in northern Italy and avoid most of the NAT-related costs.

Rapid assessment of West Nile virus circulation in a German zoo based on honey-baited FTA cards in combination with box gravid traps.

BACKGROUND: For over a decade, monitoring of West Nile virus (WNV) in Germany has consisted of a bird monitoring programme as well as a mosquito-based surveillance programme employing CO2-baited encephalitis vector surveillance (EVS) traps for mass trapping and screening of mosquitoes. In contrast to the EVS traps, the Reiter/Cummings type box gravid trap collects gravid female mosquitoes, which have already taken a blood meal, increasing the likelihood of being infected with pathogens. The traps can be equipped with a honey-baited Flinders Technology Associates® (FTA) card to encourage sugar feeding by the trapped mosquitoes. FTA cards contain nucleic acid preserving substances, which prevent the degradation of viral RNA in the expectorated mosquito saliva and allows for testing the card for flavivirus RNA. This study aimed to assess the suitability of the method for WNV surveillance in Germany as an alternative to previous methods, which are expensive, time-consuming, and predominantly target host-seeking populations less likely to be infected with WNV. METHODS: In the Thüringer Zoopark Erfurt, snowy owls (Nyctea scandiaca) and greater flamingos (Phoenicopterus roseus) died of WNV infections in July and August 2020. In response, five Reiter/Cummings type box gravid traps were positioned during the daytime on the 10th, 13th, and 16th of September in five different locations. The FTA cards and mosquitoes in the chamber were collected, kept in a cool chain, and further processed for virus detection using a modified generic flavivirus reverse transcription PCR. RESULTS: A total of 15 trappings during September collected a total of 259 female mosquitoes, 97% of which were Culex pipiens sensu lato, as well as 14 honey-baited FTA cards. Eight mosquitoes tested PCR-positive for WNV. Four FTA cards tested PCR-positive for mosquito-borne flaviviruses, two of which were confirmed as WNV, and the remaining two confirmed as Usutu virus. CONCLUSION: The suitability of the FTA cards in preserving viral RNA in the field and rapid turnaround time from collection to result is combined with a simple, cost-effective, and highly specific trapping method to create an arbovirus surveillance system, which circumvents many of the difficulties of previous surveillance programmes that required the analysis of mosquitoes in the laboratory.

Cost-Effectiveness and Impact of a Targeted Age- and Incidence-based West Nile Virus Vaccine Strategy.

BACKGROUND: West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of arboviral disease in the United States and is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. A previous analysis found that a vaccination program targeting persons aged ≥60 years was more cost-effective than universal vaccination, but costs remained high. METHODS: We used a mathematical Markov model to evaluate cost-effectiveness of an age- and incidence-based WNV vaccination program. We grouped states and large counties (≥100 000 persons aged ≥60 years) by median annual WNV incidence rates from 2004 to 2017 for persons aged ≥60 years. We defined WNV incidence thresholds, in increments of 0.5 cases per 100 000 persons ≥60 years. We calculated potential cost per WNV vaccine-prevented case and per quality adjusted life-years (QALYs) saved. RESULTS: Vaccinating persons aged ≥60 years in states with an annual incidence of WNV neuroinvasive disease of ≥0.5 per 100 000 resulted in approximately half the cost per health outcome averted compared to vaccinating persons aged ≥60 years in the contiguous United States. This approach could potentially prevent 37% of all neuroinvasive disease cases and 63% of WNV-related deaths nationally. Employing such a threshold at a county level further improved cost-effectiveness ratios while preventing 19% and 30% of WNV-related neuroinvasive disease cases and deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: An age- and incidence-based WNV vaccination program could be a more cost-effective strategy than an age-based program while still having a substantial impact on lowering WNV-related morbidity and mortality.

A 20-year historical review of West Nile virus since its initial emergence in North America: Has West Nile virus become a neglected tropical disease?

After the unexpected arrival of West Nile virus (WNV) in the United States in 1999, the mosquito-borne virus quickly spread throughout North America. Over the past 20 years, WNV has become endemic, with sporadic epizootics. Concerns about the economic impact of infection in horses lead to the licensure of an equine vaccine as early as 2005, but few advances regarding human vaccines or treatments have since been made. There is a high level of virus transmission in hot/humid, subtropical climates, and high morbidity that may disproportionately affect vulnerable populations including the homeless, elderly, and those with underlying health conditions. Although WNV continues to cause significant morbidity and mortality at great cost, funding and research have declined in recent years. These factors, combined with neglect by policy makers and amenability of control measures, indicate that WNV has become a neglected tropical disease.

Assessment of West Nile Virus Lineage 2 Dynamics in Greece and Future Implications.

The emergence of West Nile Virus lineage 2 (WNV-2) has contributed to multiple major human outbreaks in Greece since 2010. Studies to date investigating biological and environmental factors that contribute to West Nile Virus (WNV) transmission have resulted in complex statistical models. We sought to examine open publicly available data to ascertain if a predictive risk assessment could be employed for WNV-2 in Greece. Based on accessible data, factors such as precipitation, temperature, and range of avian host species did not yield conclusive outcomes. However, by measuring the average rate of temperature change leading up to peak caseloads, we found a predictive characteristic to the timing of outbreaks. Detailed evolutionary studies revealed possible multiple introductions of WNV-2 in Europe, and that Greece acts through a source-sink inversion model, thereby allowing continued reseeding of WNV transmission each year by overwintering the Culex pipiens mosquito vector. Greece has proven an excellent model in WNV surveillance and has demonstrated the importance of rapid reporting for proper preparedness and response to vector-borne diseases.

Epidemiology, management, and graft outcomes after West Nile virus encephalitis in kidney transplant recipients.

BACKGROUND: Minimal data exist describing the epidemiology, management, and long-term graft outcomes after West Nile viral disease in kidney transplant recipients (KTRs). METHODS: Single-center observational cohort study of patients who received a kidney transplant between 1/1/1994 and 12/31/2018 and developed WNV at any time point after transplantation. RESULTS: During the 24-year study period, 11 patients had documented WNV infection. Seven patients were recipients of a kidney transplant alone, and four had a simultaneous kidney and pancreas transplant. The mean age at the time of transplant was 44.7 ± 17.1 years, and the mean age at the time of WNV infection was 48 ± 17.2 years. All patients received lymphocyte depleting induction at transplant (alemtuzumab (n = 2), OKT3 (n = 1), or anti-thymocyte globulin (n = 8)). The mean time from transplant to WNV infection was 3.4 ± 5.4 years, and none was suspected of having a donor-derived infection. Three patients were treated for rejection in the 6 months before infection. The most common presenting symptom was altered mental status (n = 7), followed by a combination of fever and headache (n = 4). All patients had detectable serum WNV IgM antibodies at the time of diagnosis. All patients had a reduction in their immunosuppression and received supportive care; only two patients were treated with intravenous immunoglobulins. Nine patients recovered with no residual deficit; however, two suffered permanent neurologic damage. The mean estimated glomerular filtration rate drop at 1 year after the infection was 8.4 ± 13 mL/min/1.73 m2 . Three patients suffered acute rejection within 1 year after the infection episode, likely attributable to aggressive immunosuppressive reduction. The mean follow-up after the infection was 5.1 ± 4.3 years. At last follow-up, two patients lost their kidney allograft, and five patients died. None of the graft losses or deaths occurred within a year of the WNV or were directly attributable to WNV. CONCLUSION: The majority of patients with WNV infection after KTR recovered fully with supportive care and immunosuppressive adjustment without residual neurologic sequelae. Additionally, WNV infection was associated with relatively small reductions in eGFR at 1 year.

Assessment of Immunoglobulin M Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay Ratios to Identify West Nile Virus and St. Louis Encephalitis Virus Infections During Concurrent Outbreaks of West Nile Virus and St. Louis Encephalitis Virus Diseases, Arizona 2015.

West Nile virus (WNV) and St. Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV) are closely related mosquito-borne flaviviruses that cause clinical disease ranging from febrile illness to encephalitis. The standard for serological diagnosis is immunoglobulin M (IgM) testing followed by confirmatory plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT) to differentiate the infecting virus. However, the PRNT is time-consuming and requires manipulation of live virus. During concurrent WNV and SLEV outbreaks in Arizona in 2015, we assessed use of a diagnostic algorithm to simplify testing. It incorporated WNV and SLEV ratios based on positive-to-negative (P/N) values derived from the IgM antibody-capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. We compared each sample's ratio-based result with the confirmed WNV or SLEV sample result indicated by PRNT or PCR testing. We analyzed data from 70 patients with 77 serum and cerebrospinal fluid samples, including 53 patients with confirmed WNV infection and 17 patients with confirmed SLEV infection. Both WNV and SLEV ratios had specificity ≥95%, indicating a high likelihood that each ratio was correctly identifying the infecting virus. The SLEV ratio sensitivity of 30% was much lower than the WNV ratio sensitivity of 91%, likely because of higher cross-reactivity of SLEV antibodies and generation of lower P/N values. The standard for serological diagnosis of WNV and SLEV infections remains IgM testing followed by PRNT. However, these results suggest the ratios could potentially be used as part of a diagnostic algorithm in outbreaks to substantially reduce the need for PRNTs.

Assessment of climate change impact on the malaria vector Anopheles hyrcanus, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) using data from a regional climate model.

Motivated by the One Health paradigm, we found the expected changes in temperature and UV radiation (UVR) to be a common trigger for enhancing the risk that viruses, vectors, and diseases pose to human and animal health. We compared data from the mosquito field collections and medical studies with regional climate model projections to examine the impact of climate change on the spreading of one malaria vector, the circulation of West Nile virus (WNV), and the incidence of melanoma. We analysed data obtained from ten selected years of standardised mosquito vector sampling with 219 unique location-year combinations, and 10 years of melanoma incidence. Trends in the observed data were compared to the climatic variables obtained by the coupled regional Eta Belgrade University and Princeton Ocean Model for the period 1961-2015 using the A1B scenario, and the expected changes up to 2030 were presented. Spreading and relative abundance of Anopheles hyrcanus was positively correlated with the trend of the mean annual temperature. We anticipated a nearly twofold increase in the number of invaded sites up to 2030. The frequency of WNV detections in Culex pipiens was significantly correlated to overwintering temperature averages and seasonal relative humidity at the sampling sites. Regression model projects a twofold increase in the incidence of WNV positive Cx. pipiens for a rise of 0.5°C in overwintering TOctober-April temperatures. The projected increase of 56% in the number of days with Tmax ≥ 30°C (Hot Days-HD) and UVR doses (up to 1.2%) corresponds to an increasing trend in melanoma incidence. Simulations of the Pannonian countries climate anticipate warmer and drier conditions with possible dominance of temperature and number of HD over other ecological factors. These signal the importance of monitoring the changes to the preparedness of mitigating the risk of vector-borne diseases and melanoma.

The direct healthcare costs attributable to West Nile virus illness in Ontario, Canada: a population-based cohort study using laboratory and health administrative data.

BACKGROUND: West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus, first detected in the Western Hemisphere in 1999 and spread across North America over the next decade. Though endemic in the most populous areas of North America, few studies have estimated the healthcare costs associated with WNV. The objective of this study was to determine direct healthcare costs attributable to WNV illness in Ontario, Canada. METHODS: We conducted a cost-of-illness study on incident laboratory confirmed and probable WNV infected subjects identified from the provincial laboratory database from Jan 1, 2002 through Dec 31, 2012. Infected subjects were linked to health administrative data and matched to uninfected subjects. We used phase-of-care methods to calculate costs for 3 phases of illness: acute infection, continuing care, and final care prior to death. Mean 10-day attributable costs were reported in 2014 Canadian dollars, per capita. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to test the impact of WNV neurologic syndromes on healthcare costs. RESULTS: One thousand five hundred fifty-one laboratory confirmed and probable WNV infected subjects were ascertained; 1540 (99.3%) were matched to uninfected subjects. Mean age of WNV infected subjects was 49.1 ± 18.4 years, 50.5% were female. Mean costs attributable to WNV were $1177 (95% CI: $1001, $1352) for acute infection, $180 (95% CI: $122, $238) for continuing care, $11,614 (95% CI: $5916, $17,313) for final care - acute death, and $3199 (95% CI: $1770, $4627) for final care - late death. Expected 1-year costs were $13,648, adjusted for survival. Three hundred seventeen infected subjects were diagnosed with at least one neurologic syndrome and greatest healthcare costs in acute infection were associated with encephalitis ($4710, 95% CI: $3770, $5650). CONCLUSIONS: WNV is associated with increased healthcare resource utilization across all phases of care. High-quality studies are needed to understand the health system impact of vector-borne diseases and evaluate the cost effectiveness of novel WNV interventions.

Toscana, West Nile, Usutu and tick-borne encephalitis viruses: external quality assessment for molecular detection of emerging neurotropic viruses in Europe, 2017.

BackgroundNeurotropic arboviruses are increasingly recognised as causative agents of neurological disease in Europe but underdiagnosis is still suspected. Capability for accurate diagnosis is a prerequisite for adequate clinical and public health response.AimTo improve diagnostic capability in EVD-LabNet laboratories, we organised an external quality assessment (EQA) focusing on molecular detection of Toscana (TOSV), Usutu (USUV), West Nile (WNV) and tick-borne encephalitis viruses (TBEV).MethodsSixty-nine laboratories were invited. The EQA panel included two WNV RNA-positive samples (lineages 1 and 2), two TOSV RNA-positive samples (lineages A and B), one TBEV RNA-positive sample (Western subtype), one USUV RNA-positive sample and four negative samples. The EQA focused on overall capability rather than sensitivity of the used techniques. Only detection of one, clinically relevant, concentration per virus species and lineage was assessed.ResultsThe final EQA analysis included 51 laboratories from 35 countries; 44 of these laboratories were from 28 of 31 countries in the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA). USUV diagnostic capability was lowest (28 laboratories in 18 countries), WNV detection capacity was highest (48 laboratories in 32 countries). Twenty-five laboratories were able to test the whole EQA panel, of which only 11 provided completely correct results. The highest scores were observed for WNV and TOSV (92%), followed by TBEV (86%) and USUV (75%).ConclusionWe observed wide variety in extraction methods and RT-PCR tests, showing a profound absence of standardisation across European laboratories. Overall, the results were not satisfactory; capacity and capability need to be improved in 40 laboratories.

Economic Burden of West Nile Virus Disease, Quebec, Canada, 2012-2013.

The economic burden of West Nile virus (WNV) infection is not known for Canada. We sought to describe the direct and indirect costs of WNV infection in the province of Quebec, Canada, up to 2 years after onset of signs and symptoms. We conducted a retrospective cohort study that included WNV cases reported during 2012 and 2013. For 90 persons infected with WNV, persons with encephalitis accounted for the largest proportion of total cost: a median cost of $21,332 per patient compared with $8,124 for West Nile meningitis (p = 0.0004) and $192 for West Nile fever (p<0.0001). When results were extrapolated to all reported WNV patients, the estimated total cost for 124 symptomatic cases was ≈$1.7 million for 2012 and that for 31 symptomatic cases was ≈$430,000 for 2013. Our study provides information for the government to make informed decisions regarding public health policies and infectious diseases prevention and control programs.

Environmental and Sociological Factors Associated with the Incidence of West Nile Virus Cases in the Northern San Joaquin Valley of California, 2011-2015.

Environmental and socioeconomic risk factors associated with the incidence of human West Nile virus (WNV) cases were investigated in the Northern San Joaquin Valley region of California, a largely rural area. The study included human WNV cases from the years 2011 to 2015 in the three-county area of San Joaquin, Stanislaus, and Merced Counties, and used census tracts as the unit of analysis. Environmental factors included temperature, precipitation, and WNV-positive mosquito pools. Socioeconomic variables included age, housing age, housing foreclosures, median income, and ethnicity. Chi-square independence tests were used to examine whether each variable was associated with the incidence of WNV cases using data from the three counties combined. In addition, negative binomial regression revealed that the environmental factors of temperature and precipitation were the strongest predictors of the incidence of human WNV cases, while the socioeconomic factor of ethnicity was a significant predictor as well, and is a factor to consider in prevention efforts. Source reduction of mosquito breeding sites and targeted prevention and education remain key in reducing the risk associated with WNV.

Serological evidence of Flavivirus circulation in human populations in Northern Kenya: an assessment of disease risk 2016-2017.

BACKGROUND: Yellow fever, Dengue, West Nile and Zika viruses are re-emerging mosquito-borne Flaviviruses of public health concern. However, the extent of human exposure to these viruses and associated disease burden in Kenya and Africa at large remains unknown. We assessed the seroprevalence of Yellow fever and other Flaviviruses in human populations in West Pokot and Turkana Counties of Kenya. These areas border Uganda, South Sudan and Ethiopia where recent outbreaks of Yellow fever and Dengue have been reported, with possibility of spillover to Kenya. METHODOLOGY: Human serum samples collected through a cross-sectional survey in West Pokot and Turkana Counties were screened for neutralizing antibodies to Yellow fever, Dengue-2, West Nile and Zika virus using the Plaque Reduction Neutralization Test (PRNT). Seroprevalence was compared by county, site and important human demographic characteristics. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) were estimated using Firth logistic regression model. RESULTS: Of 877 samples tested, 127 neutralized with at least one of the four flaviviruses (14.5, 95% CI 12.3-17.0%), with a higher proportion in Turkana (21.1%, n = 87/413) than in West Pokot (8.6%, n = 40/464). Zika virus seroprevalence was significantly higher in West Pokot (7.11%) than in Turkana County (0.24%; χ2 P < 0.0001). A significantly higher Yellow fever virus seroprevalence was also observed in Turkana (10.7%) compared to West Pokot (1.29%; χ2 P < 0.0001). A high prevalence of West Nile virus was detected in Turkana County only (10.2%) while Dengue was only detected in one sample, from West Pokot. The odds of infection with West Nile virus was significantly higher in males than in females (aOR = 2.55, 95% CI 1.22-5.34). Similarly, the risk of Zika virus infection in West Pokot was twice higher in males than females (aOR = 2.01, 95% CI 0.91-4.41). CONCLUSION: Evidence of neutralizing antibodies to West Nile and Zika viruses indicates that they have been circulating undetected in human populations in these areas. While the observed Yellow Fever prevalence in Turkana and West Pokot Counties may imply virus activity, we speculate that this could also be as a result of vaccination following the Yellow Fever outbreak in the Omo river valley, South Sudan and Uganda across the border.

Performance of Epidemic Preparedness and Response Committees to Disease Outbreaks in Arua District, West Nile Region.

The Epidemic Preparedness and Response Committees (EPPRCs) are at the heart of preventing outbreaks from becoming epidemics by controlling the spread. Evidence-based information regarding factors associated with the performance of EPPRCs in preparedness and response to disease outbreaks is needed in order to improve their performance. A cross-sectional study involving 103 EPPRC members was carried out in Arua district, West Nile region, between the months of July and December 2014. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire, and the chi-square test was used to establish associations. Forty-eight percentage of EPPRC members showed a moderate level of preparedness, and only 39.8% of them had a moderate level of response. The performance drivers of preparedness and response were dependent on presence of a budget (χ2 = 10.281, p=0.002), availability of funds (χ2 = 5.508, p=0.019), adequacy of funds, (χ2 = 11.211, p=0.008), support given by health development partners (χ2 = 19.497, p=0.001), and motivation (χ2 = 20.065, p < 0.001). Further, membership duration (χ2 = 13.776, p=0.001) and respondent cadre (χ2 = 12.538, p=0.005) had a significant association. Based on these findings, there is a big gap in the preparedness and response ability, all of which are dependent on the financial gap to the Committees. To this, funding for preparedness and response is a critical aspect to respond and contain an outbreak.

A spatio-temporal individual-based network framework for West Nile virus in the USA: Spreading pattern of West Nile virus.

West Nile virus (WNV)-a mosquito-borne arbovirus-entered the USA through New York City in 1999 and spread to the contiguous USA within three years while transitioning from epidemic outbreaks to endemic transmission. The virus is transmitted by vector competent mosquitoes and maintained in the avian populations. WNV spatial distribution is mainly determined by the movement of residential and migratory avian populations. We developed an individual-level heterogeneous network framework across the USA with the goal of understanding the long-range spatial distribution of WNV. To this end, we proposed three distance dispersal kernels model: 1) exponential-short-range dispersal, 2) power-law-long-range dispersal in all directions, and 3) power-law biased by flyway direction -long-range dispersal only along established migratory routes. To select the appropriate dispersal kernel we used the human case data and adopted a model selection framework based on approximate Bayesian computation with sequential Monte Carlo sampling (ABC-SMC). From estimated parameters, we find that the power-law biased by flyway direction kernel is the best kernel to fit WNV human case data, supporting the hypothesis of long-range WNV transmission is mainly along the migratory bird flyways. Through extensive simulation from 2014 to 2016, we proposed and tested hypothetical mitigation strategies and found that mosquito population reduction in the infected states and neighboring states is potentially cost-effective.

Assessment of West nile virus transmission risk from a weather-dependent epidemiological model and a global sensitivity analysis framework.

West Nile virus (WNV) transmission risk is strongly related to weather conditions due to the sensitivity of the mosquitoes to climatic factors. We assess the WNV transmission risk of humans to seasonal weather conditions and the relative effects of parameters affecting the transmission dynamics. The assessment involves a known epidemiological model we extend to account for temperature and precipitation and a global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis framework. We focus on three relevant quantities, the basic reproduction number (R0), the minimum infection rate (MIR), and the number of infected individuals. The highest-priority weather-related WNV transmission risks can be attributed to the birth and death rate of mosquitoes, the biting rate of mosquitoes to birds, and the probability of transmission from birds to mosquitoes. Global sensitivity analysis indicates that these parameters make up a big part of the explained variance in R0 and MIR. The analysis allows for a dynamic assessment over time capturing the period parameters are more relevant than others. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of WNV transmission risk to humans enable insights into the relative importance of individual parameters of the transmission cycle of the virus facilitating the understanding of the dynamics and the implementation of tailored control strategies.

Recalibration of the Grunow-Finke Assessment Tool to Improve Performance in Detecting Unnatural Epidemics.

Successful identification of unnatural epidemics relies on a sensitive risk assessment tool designed for the differentiation between unnatural and natural epidemics. The Grunow-Finke tool (GFT), which has been the most widely used, however, has low sensitivity in such differentiation. We aimed to recalibrate the GFT and improve the performance in detection of unnatural epidemics. The comparator was the original GFT and its application in 11 historical outbreaks, including eight confirmed unnatural outbreaks and three natural outbreaks. Three steps were involved: (i) removing criteria, (ii) changing weighting factors, and (iii) adding and refining criteria. We created a series of alternative models to examine the changes on the parameter likelihood of unnatural outbreaks until we found a model that correctly identified all the unnatural outbreaks and natural ones. Finally, the recalibrated GFT was tested and validated with data from an unnatural and natural outbreak, respectively. A total of 238 models were tested. Through the removal of criteria, increasing or decreasing weighting factors of other criteria, adding a new criterion titled "special insights," and setting a new threshold for likelihood, we increased the sensitivity of the GFT from 38% to 100%, and retained the specificity at 100% in detecting unnatural epidemics. Using test data from an unnatural and a natural outbreak, the recalibrated GFT correctly classified their etiology. The recalibrated GFT could be integrated into routine outbreak investigation by public health institutions and agencies responsible for biosecurity.