Combining Model-Based Clinical Trial Simulation, Pharmacoeconomics, and Value of Information to Optimize Trial Design.

The Bayesian decision-analytic approach to trial design uses prior distributions for treatment effects, updated with likelihoods for proposed trial data. Prior distributions for treatment effects based on previous trial results risks sample selection bias and difficulties when a proposed trial differs in terms of patient characteristics, medication adherence, or treatment doses and regimens. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the utility of using pharmacometric-based clinical trial simulation (CTS) to generate prior distributions for use in Bayesian decision-theoretic trial design. The methods consisted of four principal stages: a CTS to predict the distribution of treatment response for a range of trial designs; Bayesian updating for a proposed sample size; a pharmacoeconomic model to represent the perspective of a reimbursement authority in which price is contingent on trial outcome; and a model of the pharmaceutical company return on investment linking drug prices to sales revenue. We used a case study of febuxostat versus allopurinol for the treatment of hyperuricemia in patients with gout. Trial design scenarios studied included alternative treatment doses, inclusion criteria, input uncertainty, and sample size. Optimal trial sample sizes varied depending on the uncertainty of model inputs, trial inclusion criteria, and treatment doses. This interdisciplinary framework for trial design and sample size calculation may have value in supporting decisions during later phases of drug development and in identifying costly sources of uncertainty, and thus inform future research and development strategies.

Association between long-term prescription of febuxostat and the progression of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in patients with hypertension and asymptomatic hyperuricemia.

Both hypertension and hyperuricemia are closely associated with the morbidity and mortality of heart failure. This study was designed to evaluate the influences of long-term xanthine oxidase inhibitor (febuxostat) prescription on left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH), left ventricular (LV) diastolic function, and new-onset heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) in these patients. Using a propensity score matching of 1:2 ratio, this retrospective claims database study compared febuxosatat prescription (n = 96) and non-urate-lowering therapy (n = 192) in patients with hypertensive left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) and asymptomatic hyperuricemia. With a follow-up of 36 months, febuxostat significantly decreased the level of serum uric acid as well as generated more prominent improvement in LVH and LV diastolic function. Besides, the new-onset symptomatic HFpEF occurred in 2 of 96 patients in febuxostat group and 13 of 192 patients in non-urate-lowering group (P = 0.091). No increased risk for major adverse cardiovascular events in patients prescribed with febuxostat was noted. In conclusion, long-term febuxostat exposure was associated with protective effects in terms of LVH or LV diastolic dysfunction in patients with hypertensive LVH and asymptomatic hyperuricemia. Febuxostat also displayed a trend for reduced risk of new-onset HFpEF in this population.

Formulation and Characterization of Nanosized Ethosomal Formulations of Antigout Model Drug (Febuxostat) Prepared by Cold Method: In Vitro/Ex Vivo and In Vivo Assessment.

Febuxostat (FXT) is a xanthine oxidase (XO) drug which indicated for the treatment of gout. FXT loaded nanosized ethosomes were prepared using cold method with varied concentrations of ethyl alcohol and soya lecithin (SL). The prepared ethosomes were characterized by size, entrapment efficiency (DEE), FT-IR, in vitro release, kinetic studies of in vitro release profile, in vitro skin permeation and deposition, and stability study. The selected ethosomal formulation was incorporated in HPMC gel and characterized for drug content, ex vivo diffusion study through rat skin, and in vivo study and determination of pharmacokinetic parameters using HPLC technique. The results of size analysis showed that minimum size was 124.2 ± 16.77 nm with PDI values between 0.2 and 0.6. The zeta potential was from - 43.5 ± 3.0 to - 20.6 ± 1.42 mV. DEE ranged from 48 to 86%. The results of in vitro skin permeation showed that the amount FXT permeated ranged from 43.33 ± 5.3 to 82.14 ± 5.8%, flux ranged from 14.85 to 28.02. The results of ex vivo study showed that the amount of FXT permeated from unprocessed FXT gel was 49.42 ± 3.29% which was lesser than from FXT ethosomal gel. The results of in vivo study showed that Cmax and tmax were significantly different and higher for transdermal administration of FXT than oral administration. The developed FXT nanosized selected ethosome-based transdermal drug delivery gel system would provide a promising method for better management of gout.

Design and Rationale for the Veterans Affairs "Cooperative Study Program 594 Comparative Effectiveness in Gout: Allopurinol vs. Febuxostat" Trial.

BACKGROUND: Gout patients do not routinely achieve optimal outcomes related in part to suboptimal administration of urate lowering therapy (ULT) including first-line xanthine oxidase inhibitors allopurinol or febuxostat. Studies leading to the approval of febuxostat compared this agent to allopurinol in inappropriately low, fixed doses. We will compare allopurinol with febuxostat in gout using appropriately titrated doses of both agents and a "treat-to-target" strategy congruent with specialty guidelines. METHODS: We have planned and initiated the Veterans Affairs (VA) Cooperative Study Program (CSP) 594, Comparative Effectiveness in Gout: Allopurinol vs Febuxostat study. This large double-blind, non-inferiority trial will enroll 950 gout patients randomized to receive allopurinol or febuxostat. Patients will be followed for a total of 72 weeks encompassing 3 distinct 24-week study phases. During Phase I (0-24 weeks), participants will undergo gradual dose titration of ULT until achievement of serum uric acid (sUA) <6.0 mg/dL or <5.0 mg/dL if tophi are present. Dose escalation will not be allowed during final three study visits of Phase 2 (24-48 weeks) and during Phase 3 (48-72 weeks). The primary study outcome is the proportion of participants experiencing at least one gout flare during Phase 3. Subsequent to the 72-week study, participants will be followed passively for up to 10 years after the study to assess long-term health outcomes. CONCLUSION: With its completion, the VA Comparative Effectiveness in Gout: Allopurinol vs Febuxostat study will demonstrate the central role of gradual ULT dose escalation and a treat-to-target strategy in gout management.

Comparative effectiveness of allopurinol versus febuxostat for preventing incident renal disease in older adults: an analysis of Medicare claims data.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the comparative effectiveness of allopurinol versus febuxostat for preventing incident renal disease in elderly. METHODS: In a retrospective cohort study using 2006-2012 Medicare claims data, we included patients newly treated with allopurinol or febuxostat (baseline period of 183 days without either medication). We used 5:1 propensity-matched Cox regression analyses to compare the HR of incident renal disease with allopurinol use (and dose) versus febuxostat (reference). Sensitivity analyses included multivariable-adjusted regression models. RESULTS: There were 31 465 new allopurinol or febuxostat treatment episodes in 26 443 patients; 8570 ended in incident renal disease. Crude rates of incident renal disease per 1000 person-years were 192 with allopurinol versus 338 with febuxostat. Crude rates of incident renal disease per 1000 person-years were lower with higher daily dose: allopurinol <200, 200-299 and ≥300 mg/day with 238, 176 and 155; and febuxostat 40 and 80 mg/day with 341 and 326, respectively. In propensity-matched analyses, compared with febuxostat, allopurinol use was associated with lower HR of incident renal disease, 0.61 (95% CI 0.49 to 0.77). Compared with febuxostat 40 mg/day, allopurinol doses <200, 200-299 and ≥300 mg/day were associated with lower HR of incident renal disease, 0.75 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.86), 0.61 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.73) and 0.48 (95% CI 0.41 to 0.55), respectively. Sensitivity analyses using multivariable-adjusted regression confirmed these findings. CONCLUSIONS: Allopurinol was associated with a lower risk of incident renal disease in elderly patients than febuxostat. Future studies need to examine the mechanism of this potential renal benefit of allopurinol.

Prioritizing Future Research on Allopurinol and Febuxostat for the Management of Gout: Value of Information Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to quantify the value of conducting additional research and reducing uncertainty regarding the cost effectiveness of allopurinol and febuxostat for the management of gout. METHODS: We used a previously developed Markov model that evaluated the cost effectiveness of nine urate-lowering strategies: no treatment, allopurinol-only fixed dose (300 mg), allopurinol-only dose escalation (up to 800 mg), febuxostat-only fixed dose (80 mg), febuxostat-only dose escalation (up to 120 mg), allopurinol-febuxostat sequential therapy fixed dose, allopurinol-febuxostat sequential therapy dose escalation, febuxostat-allopurinol sequential therapy fixed dose, and febuxostat-allopurinol sequential therapy dose escalation. Each strategy was evaluated over the lifetime of a hypothetical gout patient. We calculated population expected value of perfect information (EVPI). We used a linear regression meta-modeling approach to calculate population expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI), and a Gaussian approximation to calculate the population expected value of sample information for parameters (EVSI) and the expected net benefit of sampling (ENBS) for four potential study designs: (1) an allopurinol efficacy trial; (2) a febuxostat efficacy trial; (3) a prospective observational study evaluating health utilities; and (4) a comprehensive study evaluating the efficacy of allopurinol and febuxostat and health utilities. A 5-year decision time horizon was used in the base-case analysis. RESULTS: EVPI varied by a decision maker's willingness-to-pay (WTP) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and was $US900 million for WTP of $US60,000 per QALY. Population EVPPI was highest across all WTP values for study design #4. For study design #4 and a WTP of $US60,000 per QALY, the optimal sample size was 735 patients per study arm. CONCLUSIONS: Future studies are needed to evaluate the effectiveness of allopurinol and febuxostat dose escalation.