Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease burden - Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, 2017-2030.

Background/Aim: Due to epidemic levels of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and resulting nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) will be driving factors in liver disease burden in the coming years in Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE). Materials and Methods: Models were used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression, primarily based on changes in adult prevalence rates of adult obesity and DM. The published estimates and expert interviews were used to build and validate the model projections. Results: In both countries, the prevalence of NAFLD increased through 2030 parallel to projected increases in the prevalence of obesity and DM. By 2030, there were an estimated 12,534,000 NAFLD cases in Saudi Arabia and 372,000 cases in UAE. Increases in NASH cases were relatively greater than the NAFLD cases due to aging of the population and disease progression. Likewise, prevalent cases of compensated cirrhosis and advanced liver disease are projected to at least double by 2030, while annual incident liver deaths increase in both countries to 4800 deaths in Saudi Arabia and 140 deaths in UAE. Conclusions: Continued high rates of adult obesity and DM, in combination with aging populations, suggest that advanced liver disease and mortality attributable to NAFLD/NASH will increase across both countries. Reducing the growth of the NAFLD population, along with potential therapeutic options, will be needed to reduce liver disease burden.

The incidence, presentation, outcomes, risk of mortality and economic data of drug-induced liver injury from a national database in Thailand: a population-base study.

BACKGROUND: Toxic liver diseases are mainly caused by drug-induced liver injury (DILI). We assessed incidences and outcomes of DILI including associated factors for mortality. METHODS: We performed a population-based study of hospitalized patients with DILI. Information was retrieved from the Nationwide Hospital Admission Data using ICD-10 code of toxic liver diseases (K71) and additional codes (T36-T65). The associated factors were analyzed with log-rank test, univariate and multiple cox regression analysis. RESULTS: During 2009-2013, a total of 159,061 (average 21,165 per year) admissions were related to liver diseases. 6,516 admissions (1,303 per year) were due to toxic liver diseases. The most common type of toxic liver disease was acute hepatitis (33.5 %). In-hospital and 90-day mortality rates were 3.4 % and 17.2 %. DILI with cirrhosis yielded the highest in-hospital and 90-day mortality rates (15.8 % and 47.4 %). Acetaminophen, cirrhosis and age ≥ 60 years were seen in 0.5 %, 8.3 % and 50.1 % of patients who died versus 5 %, 2.3 % and 32.4 % of survivors. Factors associated with mortality were cirrhosis (HR 2.72, 95 % CI: 2.33-3.19), age ≥60 years (HR 2.16, 95 % CI: 1.96-2.38), human immunodeficiency viral infection (HR 2.11, 95 % CI: 1.88-2.36), chronic kidney disease (HR 1.59, 95 % CI: 1.33-1.90), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and bronchiectasis (HR 1.55, 95 % CI: 1.17-2.04), malnutrition (HR 1.43, 95 % CI: 1.10-1.86) and male (HR 1.31, 95 % CI: 1.21-1.43). Acetaminophen DILI yielded lower risks of mortality (HR 0.24, 95 % CI: 0.13-0.42). The most common causes of DILI were acetaminophen (35.0 %) and anti-tuberculous drugs (34.7 %). CONCLUSIONS: DILI is an uncommon indication for hospitalization carrying lower risks of death except in patients with non-acetaminophen, cirrhosis, elderly or concomitant diseases.

Hospitalization for complications of cirrhosis: does volume matter?

INTRODUCTION: Close to 30,000 people die of cirrhosis in the USA each year. Previous studies have shown a survival advantage with high-volume (HV) hospitals for complex surgical procedures. We examined whether a volume benefit exists for hospitals dealing with specialized disorders like complications of cirrhosis. METHODS: Using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, we identified all cases of cirrhosis-related complications (n = 217,948) from 1998 to 2006. Hospital volume was divided into tertile-based admissions for cirrhosis per year. RESULTS: The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality, and secondary endpoints included length of stay (LOS) and hospital charges. The number of admissions for cirrhosis increased over time (p < 0.0001). HV centers were more likely to be large (86.8%) and teaching (81.5%) hospitals compared to lower volume centers. The average LOS and hospital charges were greater at the HV centers, but hospitalization at a HV center resulted in an adjusted mortality benefit (HR 0.88; 95% CI 0.83-0.92) compared to care at lower volume hospitals. CONCLUSION: Despite increased LOS and hospital cost, a mortality benefit exists at HV centers. Future studies are necessary to determine other processes of care that may exist at HV centers that may account for this survival benefit.

Estimating the prognosis of hepatitis C patients infected by transfusion in Canada between 1986 and 1990.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a natural history model for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection to determine allocation of compensatory funds to Canadians who acquired HCV through the blood supply from 1986 through 1990. METHODS: A Markov cohort simulation model for HCV prognosis was developed, using content experts, published data, posttransfusion look-back data, and a national survey. RESULTS: The mortality rate in transfusees is high (46% at 10 years), although HCV-related deaths are rare. Only 14% develop cirrhosis at 20 years (95% confidence interval, 0%--44%), but 1 in 4 will eventually develop cirrhosis, and 1 in 8 will die of liver disease. CONCLUSIONS: This unique application of Markov cohort simulation and epidemiologic methods provides a state-of-the-art estimate of HCV prognosis and has allowed compensation decisions to be based on the best available evidence.

Why and how to treat chronic hepatitis C.

Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is a major health problem worldwide, with approximately 200 million affected individuals and a significant rate of progression to end-stage cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). If hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is left untreated in the population, then the number of liver-related deaths will soon double and the need for liver transplantation may increase to five times that seen today. Available therapies for CHC are restricted to interferon alpha (IFN alpha) monotherapy and to the combination of IFN alpha and ribavirin. Despite their high cost and side effects, both of these therapies have proved to be cost effective, particularly combination therapy. IFN alpha monotherapy for one year can induce sustained response (SR) rates of approximately 10% in naive patients infected with HCV genotype 1, and above 50% in those infected with other genotypes. Combination therapy can double or even triple the rate of SR in genotype 1 infections and may further increase the SR rate in the other HCV genotypes. Combination therapy has also been proven to be effective in approximately 50% of relapsed responders to IFN alpha monotherapy. In clinical practice, the decision to treat should be individualized and tailored on the basis of several virus- and host-related factors, particularly the grade and stage of liver disease, HCV genotype and levels of viremia. Appropriate monitoring of therapy by careful clinical evaluation, liver biochemistry and serum HCV RNA testing is mandatory. IFN alpha therapy may also prove to be effective in reducing the rate of HCC development in CHC regardless of whether a virological response is achieved, but this remains to be established.