Diagnostic value of ultrasonography in elbow trauma in children: Prospective study of 34 cases.

INTRODUCTION: Among the various elbow injuries in children that initially have normal radiographs, a certain number of occult fractures are only diagnosed correctly after the fact, during a follow-up visit. PURPOSE: This study evaluated the diagnostic contribution of ultrasonography in the treatment of acute elbow injuries in children and the strategic and economic impact of using this tool alongside radiography. MATERIALS AND METHODS: During this prospective study performed between January 1 and April 1 2014, elbow ultrasonography was performed within 6 days in all children under 15 years of age with a suspected occult fracture. The ultrasonography exam looked for lipohemarthrosis, the posterior fat pad sign and cortical disruption. If no fracture was visible on ultrasonography, a removable splint was given to the patient to relieve pain, and no radiological or clinical follow-up was scheduled. The patients were contacted again at least 15 days later to determine whether an undetected fracture was present. Lastly, we evaluated the cost of treatment with and without ultrasonography in the cases where no fracture was diagnosed. RESULTS: In 13 cases, ultrasonography revealed lipohemarthrosis and a fat pat sign, with cortical disruption also present in 11 of these cases. In two cases, the diagnosis was made based solely on the presence of lipohemarthrosis and a fat pat sign. There were seven lateral condyle fractures, two medial epicondyle fractures and two supracondylar fractures. Among the 21 patients with normal ultrasonography, no fracture was diagnosed later on. In patients without a fracture, using ultrasonography resulted in a cost savings of €29.10 per patient versus not using it. CONCLUSION: In our study, ultrasonography is a sensitive examination for the diagnosis of occult elbow fractures in children. When the radiography and ultrasonography are both normal, the possibility of fracture can be rule out definitively, which reduces the need for immobilization, follow-up and treatment costs. The findings of this preliminary study should be validated with a larger prospective study.

Early MRI versus conventional management in the detection of occult scaphoid fractures: what does it really cost? A rural pilot study.

INTRODUCTION: To compare the cost-effectiveness and patient impact between acute magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) management and conventional management in the diagnosis of occult scaphoid fractures in a rural setting. METHODS: Consecutive patients presenting to a rural emergency department (ED) with a suspected scaphoid fracture were randomly assigned to either conventional management (6) or acute MRI management (10) (3 patients were excluded from the study analysis). All healthcare costs were compared between the two management groups and potential impacts on the patients' pain, mobility and lifestyle were also measured. RESULTS: There were no significant differences between the two groups at baseline. There was one (10%) scaphoid fracture in the MRI group and none in the conventional group (P = 0.42). A larger proportion of other fractures were diagnosed in the MRI group (20% (2) vs. 16.7% (1), P = 0.87), as well as less clinic attendances (1 (0-2.25) vs. 4 (2.25-5)) and diagnostic services (1 (1-1.25) vs. 2 (1-3)). Median management costs were $485.05 (AUD) (MRI) and $486.90 (AUD) (conventional). The MRI group had better pain and satisfaction scores as well as less time of immobilisation, treatment and time off work. CONCLUSION: MRI dramatically reduces the amount of unnecessary immobilisation, time of treatment and healthcare usage in a rural setting. The two protocols are suggested to be equivalent financially. When potential societal costs, the amount of unnecessary immobilisation, low prevalence of true fractures and patient satisfaction are considered, acute MRI should be the management technique of choice. Further studies are still required to assess the best method for managing bone bruise within the scaphoid.

Diagnosis of Occult Scaphoid Fractures: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Scaphoid fractures are common but may be missed on initial radiographs. Advanced imaging modalities such as computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) have improved diagnostic accuracy, but at an increased initial cost. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of immediate advanced imaging for suspected occult scaphoid fractures. METHODS: A decision analysis model was created to evaluate three diagnostic strategies for patients with concerning history and examination but negative radiographs: (1) empiric cast immobilization with orthopaedic follow-up and repeat radiography at two weeks post-injury, (2) immediate CT scanning, or (3) immediate MRI. Prevalence of occult scaphoid fracture, sensitivity and specificity of CT and MRI, and risks and outcomes of a missed fracture were derived from published clinical trials. Costs of imaging, lost worker productivity, and surgical costs of nonunion surgery were estimated on the basis of the literature. RESULTS: Advanced imaging was dominant over empiric cast immobilization; advanced imaging had lower costs and its health outcomes were projected to be better than those of empiric cast immobilization. MRI was slightly more cost-effective than CT on the basis of the mean published diagnostic performance, but was highly sensitive to test performance characteristics. Advanced imaging would have to increase in cost to more than $2000 or decrease in sensitivity to <25% for CT or <32% for MRI for empiric cast immobilization to be cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: Given its relatively low cost and high diagnostic accuracy, advanced imaging for suspected scaphoid fractures in the setting of negative radiographs represents a cost-effective strategy for reducing both costs and morbidity. The decision to use CT compared with MRI is a function of individual institutional costs and local test performance characteristics.

Treatment trends in adolescent clavicle fractures.

BACKGROUND: Controversy continues with regard to decision making for operative treatment of adolescent clavicle fractures, while the literature continues to support operative treatment for select middle third fractures in adults. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the recent trends in nonoperative and operative management of adolescent clavicle fractures in the United States. METHODS: Data were derived from a publicly available database of patients, PearlDiver Patient Records Database. The database was queried for ICD-9 810.02 (closed fracture of shaft of clavicle), with the age restriction of either 10 to 14 or 15 to 19 years old, along with CPT-23500 (closed treatment of clavicular fracture) and CPT-23515 (open treatment of clavicular fracture) from 2007 to 2011. The χ analysis was used to determine statistical significance with regard to procedural volumes, sex, and region. The Student t test was used to compare average charges between groups. RESULTS: A significant increase in the number of adolescent clavicle fractures managed operatively (CPT-23510, ages 10 to 19 y) from 309 in 2007 to 530 in 2011 was observed (P<0.0001). There was a significantly greater increase in operative management of clavicle fractures in the age 15 to 19 subgroup compared with the age 10 to 14 subgroup (P<0.0001). In the operative group, there was a trend toward a higher number of males being managed with operative intervention. The overall average monetary charge for both nonoperatively and operatively managed adolescent clavicle fractures increased significantly in the study period. A statistically significant increase in normalized incidence of operatively managed adolescent clavicle fractures was noted in the midwest, south, and west regions with the greatest increase in west region where the incidence increased over 2-fold (P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Adolescent clavicle fractures seem to be being treated increasingly with open reduction and internal fixation recently, especially in the 15 to 19 age group. Nevertheless, there remains of lack of high-level studies comparing outcomes of operative and conservative treatment specifically for the adolescent population to justify this recent trend. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level IV-retrospective database analysis.

The suspected scaphoid injury: resource implications in the absence of magnetic resonance imaging.

INTRODUCTION: Undiagnosed and untreated scaphoid fractures have poorer outcomes and many patients are unnecessarily immobilised for prolonged periods of time to avoid missing occult injuries. Magnetic resonance imaging has a high sensitivity and specificity in detecting occult scaphoid fractures, but many units do not routinely use this imaging modality in the diagnostic pathway. We aimed to determine the patterns of suspected scaphoid injuries, report the process of care, and calculate the costs involved in their management. METHODS: We prospectively identified all adult patients referred to fracture clinic at the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh with a scaphoid-related injury, between October 2007 and September 2008. Clinical notes were examined retrospectively. We defined three injury groups: true fractures, occult fractures, and suspected scaphoid injuries. We analysed patient demographics, treatment timelines, and the treatment costs involved. RESULTS: Fracture clinic received 537 scaphoid-related referrals. There were 87 true fractures, 43 occult fractures, and 407 suspected injuries, incurring average treatment costs of £1,173, £773, and £384 respectively. Occult fractures accounted for 33% of all confirmed scaphoid fractures. The majority of scaphoid-related referrals (76%) were never proven to have a scaphoid fracture, and many were unnecessarily immobilised. The costs involved in the treatment of suspected scaphoid injuries were found to be higher than the cost of magnetic resonance imaging (£97). CONCLUSION: In this group of suspected scaphoid injury, we believe the introduction of an early magnetic resonance imaging protocol would lead to an earlier definitive diagnosis and potentially a more cost-effective service.

Cost and management of males with closed fractures.

UNLABELLED: The purpose of this study was to examine the medical costs and the management of osteoporosis in the 12 months after a closed fracture for men aged ≥ 45 years. The mean medical cost per fracture was high ($6,078-$30,900), and osteoporosis management post fracture was inadequate in the majority of men. INTRODUCTION: This study was conducted in order to examine the medical costs following fracture in males and the management of osteoporosis post fracture. METHODS: Administrative claims from a large, national health plan were analyzed. Men ≥ 45 years were included if they had ≥ 1 medical claim for a new closed fracture between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2008. Commercially insured (COM) and Medicare Advantage Plan (MAP) members were analyzed separately. Costs were calculated as paid amounts and adjusted to 2010 dollars. Both the differences between the individual patients' 12-month pre-fracture and 12-month post-fracture costs and the costs directly attributed to the fracture were reported. The prevalence of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scan and/or osteoporosis pharmacotherapy treatment was evaluated in the 12 months post fracture. RESULTS: We identified 18,917 (COM, 16,191; MAP, 2,726) men with new closed fractures. Non-hip, non-vertebral fractures (NHNV) were the most common fracture in both COM and MAP populations. Fracture costs ranged from $7,121 to $15,830 for vertebral fractures, from $22,601 to $30,900 for hip fractures, and from $6,078 to $8,344 for NHNV fractures. In the COM and MAP populations, respectively, 8.5 and 15.5 % had a DXA scan and/or osteoporosis pharmacotherapy in the 12 months following the fracture. CONCLUSIONS: Healthcare costs associated with fractures in men are substantial. About 1 in 12 men ≥ 45 years in the COM population were provided adequate follow-up for osteoporosis post fracture. While this rate improved to about one in six men in the MAP population, osteoporosis management in men post fracture is far from optimal.

Objective sound wave amplitude measurement generated by a tuning fork. An analysis of its use as a diagnostic tool in suspected femoral neck fractures.

INTRODUCTION: Hip injuries are becoming a more common problem as the elderly population increases and their management represents a significant proportion of health care costs. Diagnosis of a fracture based on clinical assessment and plain films is not always conclusive and further investigations for such occult fractures, such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), are sometimes required which are expensive and may be difficult to access. Disruption to the conduction of a sound wave travelling through a fractured bone is a concept that has been used to diagnose fractures. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In our study we used a tuning fork with frequency of 128 Hz to objectively measure the reduction in sound amplitude in fractured and non-fractured hips. We looked at the feasibility of using this test as a diagnostic tool for neck of femur fractures. RESULTS: A total of 20 patients was included in the study, using MRI scan as the standard for comparison of diagnostic findings. Informed consent was obtained from the patients. There was a significant difference in the amplitude reduction of the sound waves when comparing normal to fractured hips. This was 0.9 in normal hips, compared to 0.31 and 0.18 in intra-capsular and extra-capsular fractures, respectively. Our test was 80% accurate at diagnosing neck of femur fractures. CONCLUSION: In conclusion this test may be used as a diagnostic test or screening tool in the assessment of occult hip fractures.

Closed midshaft femur fractures: are they only for trauma centers?

Trauma centers are limited resources, particularly in rural areas, and availability of emergency care in some parts of the United States may be inadequate. The declining number of orthopedic surgeons willing to care for injured patients has limited access to fracture repair in some communities. We studied the management of closed midshaft femur fractures in both trauma centers (TCs) and nontrauma centers (NTCs) to evaluate outcome for this common orthopedic injury and determine if these issues have affected fracture care in Kentucky. All patients 16-years-old and older who suffered femur fractures in Kentucky from 2004 and 2005 were identified. There were 334 TC patients and 341 NTC patients with closed, midshaft femur fractures. The mean age of TC patients (33 ± 17 years) was significantly lower than that of NTC patients (59 ± 25 years). TC patients were more likely men (71% vs 44%), had more associated injuries (2.4 ± 2.1 vs 0.5 ± 1.2), and had longer lengths of stay (8.3 ± 9.8 vs 6.4 ± 7.1 days) (TCs vs NTCs, all P < 0.005). Although both groups ultimately underwent internal fixation (97% vs 99%, TCs vs NTCs), TC patients were more likely (2.7% vs 0.3%) to receive external fixation than the NTC patients (P < 0.05). There was no significant difference in the percentage of patients that received only a closed reduction. There was no significant difference in hospital mortality (0.3% vs 0.9%, TCs vs NTCs, P = 0.62). Although differences in patient populations exist between TCs and NTCs, both TCs and NTCs manage substantial numbers of patients with closed, midshaft femur fractures with low mortality in this state database.

Economic evaluation of reamed versus unreamed intramedullary nailing in patients with closed and open tibial fractures: results from the study to prospectively evaluate reamed intramedullary nails in patients with tibial fractures (SPRINT).

INTRODUCTION: Recently, results from the large, randomized study to prospectively evaluate reamed intramedullary nails in patients with tibial fractures (SPRINT) trial suggested a benefit for reamed intramedullary nail insertion in patients with closed tibial shaft fractures largely based on cost-neutral autodynamizations and a potential advantage for unreamed intramedullary nailing in open fractures. We performed an economic evaluation to compare resource use and effectiveness of reamed and unreamed intramedullary nailing using a cost-utility analysis. METHODS: We calculated quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for each patient from a self-administered health utility index 3 questionnaire for the first 12 months following the intramedullary nailing. A convenience sample of 235 SPRINT patients provided data on costs associated with health care resource utilization. All costs are reported in Canadian dollars for the 2008 financial year. RESULTS: We found incremental effects of -0.017 (95% confidence interval [CI] -0.021-0.058) and -0.002 (95% CI -0.060-0.062) QALYs for patients treated with reamed compared with unreamed intramedullary nails in closed and open fractures, respectively. The incremental costs for reamed compared with unreamed intramedullary nailing were $51 Canadian dollars (95% CI -$2298-$2400) in closed tibial fractures and $2546 Canadian dollars (95%CI -$1773-$6864) in open tibial fractures. Unreamed nailing dominated reamed nailing for both closed and open tibial fractures; however, the cost and the utility results had high variability. CONCLUSION: Our economic analysis from a governmental perspective suggests small differences in both cost and effectiveness with large uncertainty between reamed and unreamed intramedullary nailing.

Management of occult fractures in the skeletally immature patient: cost analysis of implementing a limited trauma magnetic resonance imaging protocol.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Fractures in children may not be visible in the result of initial radiography, and undertreatment and overtreatment of such fractures routinely occur. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the potential cost of implementing limited magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at initial encounter, when radiographs are unrevealing. METHODS: This was a retrospective review of 204 emergency department pediatric patients presenting between January 1, 2005 and February 28, 2006 with appendicular trauma, with initially negative radiographic result and follow-up. Emergency department treatment categorization of (1) no treatment, (2) ACE wrap, (3) brace, (4) splint, or (5) casting was evaluated. Final determination of presence or absence of fracture was based on follow-up. Patients with fractures were considered undertreated when they received categories 1 to 3 care; patients without fractures were considered overtreated when they received categories 4 and 5 care. The percentage of patients undertreated or overtreated and direct and total costs were determined and analyzed in conjunction with the cost of a limited MRI at initial encounter. Total costs include direct and indirect costs (lost wages for each day off work for the parent). Cost estimates assume patients determined to be without fractures at follow-up will not return for follow-up clinical care or obtain additional imaging after MRI at initial encounter. RESULTS: Twenty-eight (13.7%) of the 204 patients had fractures at follow-up. Fifty one percent of patients without fractures were overtreated; 29% with fractures were undertreated. Mean direct cost for all patients and cost estimation with limited MRI protocol were $843.81 and $891.79, respectively (P = 0.365). However, mean total cost for all patients and cost estimation with limited MRI protocol was $1059.49 and $929.10, respectively (P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Based on clinical grounds and initially negative radiographic results, slightly more than half of patients without fractures can be overtreated, and nearly one third of patients with fractures can be undertreated. Instituting a protocol that includes limited trauma MRI lowers the total cost of care without increasing direct cost, and appropriate care may be instituted at the outset.

An economic analysis of management strategies for closed and open grade I tibial shaft fractures.

BACKGROUND: Closed and open grade I (low-energy) tibial shaft fractures are a common and costly event, and the optimal management for such injuries remains uncertain. METHODS: We explored costs associated with treatment of low-energy tibial fractures with either casting, casting with therapeutic ultrasound, or intramedullary nailing (with and without reaming) by use of a decision tree. RESULTS: From a governmental perspective, the mean associated costs were USD 3,400 for operative management by reamed intramedullary nailing, USD 5,000 for operative management by non-reamed intramedullary nailing, USD 5,000 for casting, and USD 5,300 for casting with therapeutic ultrasound. With respect to the financial burden to society, the mean associated costs were USD 12,500 for reamed intramedullary nailing, USD 13,300 for casting with therapeutic ultrasound, USD 15,600 for operative management by non-reamed intramedullary nailing, and USD 17,300 for casting alone. INTERPRETATION: Our analysis suggests that, from an economic standpoint, reamed intramedullary nailing is the treatment of choice for closed and open grade I tibial shaft fractures. Considering financial burden to society, there is preliminary evidence that treatment of low-energy tibial fractures with therapeutic ultrasound and casting may also be an economically sound intervention.

An economic evaluation of early versus delayed operative treatment in patients with closed tibial shaft fractures.

There are few reports examining the effect of surgical delay on outcomes following operative treatment of lower extremity fractures. Delays in the surgery for closed tibial shaft fractures have been reported to increase the overall complication rate, postoperative hospital stays and crude costs to the health care system. Our purpose was to estimate the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility associated with the adoption of a programme of early operative treatment of all closed tibial shaft fractures. We performed cost analyses based upon data obtained from an observational study. A cohort of patients with closed tibial shaft fractures was identified at a university-affiliated level I trauma centre. Patients were divided into an early surgical group (within 12 h) and delayed surgical group (longer than 12 h). Study outcomes included time to fracture union (weeks), direct inpatient and outpatient costs associated with each intervention, loss of productivity costs, and utilities (patient health perception) as determined from content experts. Sixteen patients were operated on within 12 h of injury and 19 patients were treated later than 12 h after their fracture. These groups were similar for all baseline variables. The average time to fracture union was 28.2 weeks (SD 9.4) and 44.2 weeks (SD 7.4) for the early surgical group and the delayed surgical group, respectively ( p<0.01). When the costs associated with productivity losses were included in the cost-effectiveness analysis, savings were noted of 7,330 CD dollars per patient and of 458 CD dollars for each week that a fracture healed more quickly with early treatment. However, when the loss of patient productivity was not included, there was a cost per week of 67 CD dollars. A difference of 0.09 quality adjusted life years (QALYs) in favour of the early surgery was found, which yielded a savings of 81,444 CD dollars per QALY gained when the productivity losses were included and a cost per QALY of 11,922 CD dollars when the productivity losses were not included. Both cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses were robust. Early plate fixation of closed tibial shaft fractures results in significantly shorter time to fracture union, fewer postoperative complications, significant cost effectiveness and greater QALYs gained when compared with delayed treatment. Inferences from this study are strengthened by the comprehensive abstraction of cost data and detailed cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses.

Magnetic resonance imaging of suspected scaphoid fractures using a low field dedicated extremity MR system.

AIM: To determine whether magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) using a dedicated extremity system could be utilized for the routine assessment of patients with a clinically suspected scaphoid fracture, and to determine the most cost-effective timing of MRI for these patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: MRI of the wrist using a 0.2T extremity MR system was performed in two groups of patients. Fifty-six patients were examined within 4 days of injury and 53 with persistent symptoms at 10 days to 6 weeks following injury. A scaphoid series of radiographs was negative in both groups. RESULTS: The early MR group had seven scaphoid, six radial and four other fractures. Management was altered in 89%. The late MR group had 14 scaphoid, nine radial and three other fractures. Management was altered in 69%. A cost model showed that overall costs are less with early rather than late scanning. CONCLUSION: MRI of the wrist when scaphoid fracture is suspected can be undertaken in all patients with negative radiographs and could be performed in most departments with an MRI machine. There are significant patient benefits and overall costs would change little from conventional practice.

Isolated closed diaphyseal fractures of the femur in children: comparison of effectiveness and cost of several treatment methods.

The effectiveness of several treatment modalities for isolated closed femur fractures in children ages 4 through 16 years is compared based on outcome (clinical results, morbidity, and parents' satisfaction) and cost. Between 1986 and 1993, 30 patients were treated. Treatment methods included immediate hip spica cast application, distal femoral skeletal traction pin to align the fracture followed by early hip spica cast incorporating the pin (6th day), in-hospital traction, primary external fixation, and primary intramedullary nailing. Average follow up was 4.1 years. Overall results were excellent with minimal morbidity for all treatment methods. Early application of hip spica cast with or without incorporation of the distal femoral traction pin required the fewest hospital days, the shortest time to union, and had the lowest overall cost. Complications, mainly malunion and femoral length discrepancy, however, were greater. Skeletal traction resulted in the longest hospital stay and was equal in cost to external fixation and intramedullary nailing. Primary external fixation appears most applicable in patients who are unlikely to tolerate early casting and who are at increased risk of avascular necrosis with femoral nailing. Patients treated with an intramedullary nail had the fewest complications. Age, size, and gender of patient, location and type of fracture, as well as social circumstances are all significant factors in choosing the optimal method of treatment.

Magnetic resonance imaging of occult scaphoid fractures.

Occult fractures of the scaphoid bone occur frequently and may lead to nonunions. In a prospective blind study, we performed magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) examinations on 32 patients who had sustained a wrist injury and in whom a scaphoid fracture was clinically suspected, but could not be confirmed on the original set of two routine and four scaphoid view radiographs. The MRI examinations were performed an average time of 2.8 days after the trauma. This prospective study proved that MRI is able to diagnose occult scaphoid fractures without delay and without the use of radioactive diagnostic means. Sensitivity and specificity of MRI were 100%. This conventional method could save $7,200 (US) per 100,000 inhabitants in providing an immediate and correct diagnosis and avoiding unnecessary cast immobilization. Additional injuries that may be misdiagnosed by conventional radiographs are also detected with a specificity and sensitivity of 100%.

[Cost effectiveness of preventive antibiotic administration for lowering risk of infection by 0.25%]. / Kosteneffektivität einer Antibiotikaprophylaxe bei Senkung des Infektionsrisikos um 0.25%.

Antibiotic prophylaxis in closed fractures is cost-effective if the risk of a deep infection is reduced by 0.25%. This control study was undertaken to assess the cost-effectiveness of prophylaxis of postoperative infections after surgical treatment of closed fractures. The costs for 16 patients with infections (8 with deep infections, 8 with superficial infections) were investigated and compared with the costs for 16 similar but non-infected patients with special reference to length of hospital stay, antibiotics and surgery. The data were collected from the trauma department of the University Hospital of the Free University in Amsterdam. Costs in the group of 8 patients with superficial wound infection were not substantially higher than those for their non-infected controls. The occurrence of a deep infection meant costs an average of DFL 35,224 higher than an uneventful postoperative course. On the basis of these results, antibiotic prophylaxis of postoperative wound infections is cost-effective if it reduces the risk of deep wound infections by about 0.25%.

Home traction in the management of femoral fractures in children.

Fracture of the femur in children is a common problem which can be managed in a variety of ways. We treated such fractures in children up to the age of 13 by immobilization in a Thomas splint, after reduction, if necessary, and traction in hospital. After a short period, traction was continued at home using a mobile frame with the Thomas splint. The results of such home traction were assessed in terms of both healing of the fracture and any complications and of the parental attitudes to treatment at home. It was found that traction at home was an acceptable method for the management of such fractures. Results were comparable to other methods of treatment and parental satisfaction was very high, providing there was adequate surveillance by the district nurse and immediate access to advice. The cost-savings of such a treatment are significant.

Prediction of fracture in patients with acute musculoskeletal ankle trauma.

X-rays taken for ankle trauma contribute significantly to the cost of health care in this country. In an attempt to find clinical correlates of ankle fracture 36 detailed historical and physical examination variables were collected from 587 consecutive patients with ankle trauma, and ankle x-rays were taken of all patients. The association of each variable with the final diagnosis of fracture, rupture, or sprain was tested; 21 variables were significant predictors of fracture (vs. sprain and rupture) and 15 were not significantly associated with final diagnosis. The variables were used in a linear discriminant analysis to develop a rule which would predict the final diagnosis. If only those patients predicted by the rule to have fractures had been x-rayed, all patients with fracture would have been identified but more than a fourth of all ankle trauma patients would have been spared x-rays. This compares favorably with a recently published rule that did not assess sensitivity. A simulated prospective evaluation suggests that these results are stable, but that up to 10% of the fractures could be missed on the first visit. Although current practice is not well documented, it appears that use of this rule could yield substantial cost savings.