The Price Elasticity of Cigarettes: New Evidence From Spanish Regions, 2002-2016.

INTRODUCTION: There is an agreement in the literature that tobacco price elasticity is around -0.4 for given location. Furthermore, works only focus separately, on the temporal dimension or the spatial dimension, however, there are studies that show the existence of spillovers between different geographical areas due to the spatial dependence in tobacco consumption. The novelty of this study is the measurement of the effect that neighboring regions have on the price elasticity of cigarettes. AIMS AND METHODS: This study simultaneously analyzed, first, a dynamic spatial model used to measure the price elasticity of cigarettes in the short term and long term of the 47 provinces that make up the Spanish territory, detailing the influence of neighbors. Second, given the spatial arrangement of the elasticities observed in the provinces, we can detect behaviors typical of large-scale illicit trade and cross-border purchasing since geographical location can be an important factor in smuggling, and politicians should take this into account when making price policies. RESULTS: Results reveal that the consumption of the regions is influenced by the consumption of the neighboring regions in the same period. The price elasticity of cigarettes in the long term exceeds in many cases, in absolute value, unity. This result is novel because tobacco has historically been treated as an inelastic demand good. Finally, we found that the regions that are most sensitive to price are those bordering France and Gibraltar or tourist regions, demonstrating the effect that smuggling has on the behavior of the regions. CONCLUSIONS: These results are important because the price in Spain is set by the central government and fiscal policies regarding the price of tobacco can have different effects in different regions. This study has shown that the consumption of cigarettes is influenced by the neighboring regions and also measured different sensitivities for each region. Regional cooperation in tobacco control policies may have better effects than the elaborated policies based on historical information. IMPLICATIONS: Policy makers should consider that tobacco could be an elastic good in the long term and that cooperation between countries in terms of price differential should be taken to avoid tobacco smuggling. The allocation of resources to control smoking should consider the special dependence shown in this report. Also, academics should account for spatial dependence to measure tobacco consumption instead of temporal analysis.

Pensions, consumption and health: evidence from rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Increasing numbers of older people in sub-Saharan Africa are gaining access to pension benefits and it is often claimed that these benefits promote healthy forms of consumption, which contribute to significant improvements in their health status. However, evidence to support these claims is limited. METHODS: The paper uses data for 2701 people aged 60 or over who participated in a population-based study in rural north-eastern South Africa. It analyses effects of receiving a pension on reported food scarcity, body mass index and patterns of consumption. RESULTS: The paper finds that living in a pension household is associated with a reduced risk of reported food scarcity and with higher levels of consumption of food and drink. The paper does not find that living in a pension household is associated with a higher prevalence of current smoking nor current alcohol consumption. However, the paper still finds that tobacco and alcohol make up over 40% of reported food and drink consumption, and that the correlation between reported food scarcity and body mass index status is imperfect. CONCLUSIONS: The paper does not show significant associations between pension receipt and the selected risk factors. However, the context of prevalent obesity and high shares of household spending allocated to tobacco and alcohol call into question widely-made claims that pensions enhance healthy consumption among older people in low and middle-income countries.

Taxation and tobacco plain packaging effect on Saudi smokers quitting intentions in Riyadh city, Saudi Arabia.

OBJECTIVES: The current research aims to study the impact of raising tobacco tax and implementation of plain packaging on male smokers' quitting intentions in Saudi Arabia. METHODS: The study adopts a quantitative approach where close-ended questionnaires are distributed among 1,015 male participants from different regions of Riyadh city, Saudi Arabia. Bivariate analysis and logistic regression analysis are conducted using SPSS software to analyze the collected primary data. RESULTS: The study found a significant association of taxation and plain packaging on the quitting intentions of smokers. On taxation, while a considerable number of participants (46.5%) stated that they would not quit smoking if the cigarette prices increased, participants who were planning to give up smoking said it would strengthen their intention (p less than 0.001). In addition, logistic regression was performed to identify the independent predictors of quitting intention. Participants who did not want to apply the concept of plain packaging to Saudi Arabia were more likely to have quitting intention (odds ratio: 2.30 [1.61-3.28]) in comparison to those who wanted to apply the concept. CONCLUSION: Although the current price of cigarette packs reported to be very high by the participants, imposing a new higher tax may motivate smokers who had plans to quit in the near future. Plain packaging seems to be an effective new strategy in addition to tobacco taxation in Saudi Arabia, yet, more time and further research are required to assess the effectiveness of the strategy.

Smoke-Free Air Interventions in Seven Latin American Countries: Health and Financial Impact to Inform Evidence-Based Policy Implementation.

INTRODUCTION: Disease burden due to tobacco smoking in Latin America remains very high. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential impact of implementing smoke-free air interventions on health and cost outcomes in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, using a mathematical model. AIMS AND METHODS: We built a probabilistic Monte Carlo microsimulation model, considering natural history, direct health system costs, and quality of life impairment associated with main tobacco-related diseases. We followed individuals in hypothetical cohorts and calculated health outcomes on an annual basis to obtain aggregated 10-year population health outcomes (deaths and events) and costs. To populate the model, we completed an overview and systematic review of the literature. Also, we calibrated the model comparing the predicted disease-specific mortality rates with those coming from local national statistics. RESULTS: With current policies, for the next 10 years, a total of 137 121 deaths and 917 210 events could be averted, adding 3.84 million years of healthy life and saving USD 9.2 billion in these seven countries. If countries fully implemented smoke-free air strategies, it would be possible to avert nearly 180 000 premature deaths and 1.2 million events, adding 5 million healthy years of life and saving USD 13.1 billion in direct healthcare. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing the smoke-free air strategy would substantially reduce deaths, diseases, and health care costs attributed to smoking. Latin American countries should not delay the full implementation of this strategy. IMPLICATIONS: Tobacco smoking is the single most preventable and premature mortality cause in the world. The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, supported by the World Health Organization, introduced a package of evidence-based measures for tobacco control. This study adds quality evidence on the potential health effects and savings of implementing smoke-free air policies in countries representing almost 80% of the Latin America and the Caribbean population.

Health and Economic Impact of Health Warnings and Plain Tobacco Packaging in Seven Latin American Countries: Results of a Simulation Model.

INTRODUCTION: The burden of disease attributable to tobacco use in Latin America is very high. Our objective was to evaluate the 10-year potential impact of current legislation related to cigarette packaging and warnings and expected effects of moving to a higher level of strategies implementing cigarette plain packaging on health and cost outcomes in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, using a microsimulation model. AIMS AND METHODS: We used a probabilistic state-transition microsimulation model, considering natural history, costs, and quality of life losses associated with main tobacco-related diseases. We followed up individuals in hypothetical cohorts and calculated health outcomes annually to obtain aggregated long-term population health outcomes and costs. We performed a literature review to estimate effects and analyzed studies and information from ministries, relevant organizations, and national surveys. We calibrated the model comparing the predicted disease-specific mortality rates with local statistics. RESULTS: Current graphic warnings already in place in each country could avert, during 10 years, 69 369 deaths and 638 295 disease events, adding 1.2 million years of healthy life and saving USD 5.3 billion in the seven countries. If these countries implemented plain packaging strategies, additional 155 857 premature deaths and 4 133 858 events could be averted, adding 4.1 million healthy years of life and saving USD 13.6 billion in direct health care expenses of diseases attributable to smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Latin American countries should not delay the implementation of this strategy that will alleviate part of the enormous health and financial burden that tobacco poses on their economies and health care systems. IMPLICATIONS: Tobacco smoking is the single most preventable and premature mortality cause in the world. The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, supported by the World Health Organization, introduced a package of evidence-based measures for tobacco control. This study adds evidence on the potential health effects and savings of implementing cigarette plain packaging in countries representing almost 80% of the Latin American population; findings are valuable resources for policy makers in the region.

Catastrophic health expenditure: A comparative analysis of smoking and non-smoking households in China.

INTRODUCTION: Smoking is hazardous to health and places a heavy economic burden on individuals and their families. Clearly, smoking in China is prevalent since China is the largest consumer of tobacco in the world. Chinese smoking and nonsmoking households were compared in terms of the incidence and intensity of Catastrophic Health Expenditures (CHEs). The factors associated with catastrophic health expenditures were analyzed. METHODS: Data for this study were collected from two waves of panel data in 2011 and 2013 from the national China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). A total of 8073 households with at least one member aged above 45 were identified each year. Catastrophic health expenditure was measured by the ratio of a household's out-of-pocket healthcare payments (OOP) to the household's Capacity to Pay (CTP). A panel logit random-effects model was used to examine correlates with catastrophic health expenditure. RESULTS: The incidence of catastrophic health expenditures for Chinese households with members aged 45 and above in 2011 and 2013 were 12.99% and 15.56%, respectively. The mean gaps (MGs) were 3.16% and 4.88%, respectively, and the mean positive gaps (MPGs) were 24.36% and 31.40%, respectively. The incidences of catastrophic health expenditures were 17.41% and 20.03% in former smoking households, 12.10% and 15.09% in current smoking households, and 12.72% and 13.64% in nonsmoking households. In the panel logit regression model analysis, former smoking households (OR = 1.444, P<0.001) were more prone to catastrophic health expenditures than nonsmoking households. Risk factors for catastrophic health expenditures included members with chronic diseases (OR = 4.359, P<0.001), hospitalized patients (OR = 8.60, P<0.001), elderly people aged above 65 (OR = 1.577, P<0.001), or persons with disabilities (OR = 1.275, P<0.001). Protective factors for catastrophic health expenditures included being in an urban household, having a larger family size, and having a higher household income. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of catastrophic health expenditures in Chinese households is relatively high. Smoking is one of the primary risk factors for catastrophic health expenditures. Stronger interventions against smoking should be made in time to reduce the occurrence of health issues caused by smoking and the financial losses for individuals, families and society.

The 20-year impact of tobacco price and tobacco control expenditure increases in Minnesota, 1998-2017.

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco control programs and policies reduce tobacco use and prevent health and economic harms. The majority of tobacco control programs and policies in the United States are implemented at local and state levels. Yet the literature on state-level initiatives reports a limited set of outcomes. To facilitate decision-making that is increasingly focused on costs, we provide estimates of a broader set of measures of the impact of tobacco control policy, including smoking prevalence, disease events, deaths, medical costs, productivity and tobacco tax revenues, using the experience of Minnesota as an example. METHODS: Using the HealthPartners Institute's ModelHealth™: Tobacco MN microsimulation, we assessed the impact of the stream of tobacco control expenditures and cigarette price increases from 1998 to 2017. We simulated 1.3 million individuals representative of the Minnesota population. RESULTS: The simulation estimated that increased expenditures on tobacco control above 1997 levels prevented 38,400 cancer, cardiovascular, diabetes and respiratory disease events and 4,100 deaths over 20 years. Increased prices prevented 14,600 additional events and 1,700 additional deaths. Both the net increase in tax revenues and the reduction in medical costs were greater than the additional investments in tobacco control. CONCLUSION: Combined, the policies address both short-term and long-term goals to reduce the harms of tobacco by helping adults who wish to quit smoking and deterring youth from starting to smoke. States can pay for initial investments in tobacco control through tax increases and recoup those investments through reduced expenditures on medical care.

Smoking behaviour after enforcement of a 100% tax on tobacco products in Saudi Arabia: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Raising the prices of cigarettes is a common intervention to control tobacco use. In June 2017, Saudi Arabia imposed a 100% excise tax on tobacco products and energy drinks. AIMS: This study aimed to evaluate the impact of the increase in prices on tobacco products and the resulting cigarette smoking behaviour in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia before and after the increase in tobacco product prices. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted between December 2017 and March 2018 in Saudi Arabian smokers aged 18 years and more. A validated questionnaire was distributed to a convenience sample in public places and through Twitter. The McNemar matched pairs chi-squared test was used to evaluate the self-reported difference in cigarette smoking before and after the tax came into effect. Binary logistic regression analysis was done to identify the socioeconomic and health factors associated with stopping smoking. RESULTS: In all, 376 participants (80.0% men) completed the questionnaire. A large proportion of the participants (39.6%) reported no change in their smoking behaviour after the tax was imposed, whereas 29.8% switched to cheaper brands. Before the tax, 154 participants smoked 15 cigarettes or more a day; this figure decreased to 134 after the tax (McNemar test, P < 0.001). Respondents who were married, unemployed, had a higher income or who rated their health as fair were significantly more likely to have stopped smoking after the tax. CONCLUSION: The sharp increase in cigarette prices in Saudi Arabia has led to a statistically significant reduction in smoking. Future research should assess the long-term effects of this intervention on smoking onset, prevalence and relapse.

Exceeding WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) Obligations: Nepal Overcoming Tobacco Industry Interference to Enact a Comprehensive Tobacco Control Policy.

BACKGROUND: The tobacco industry works to block, delay, and weaken national tobacco control legislation to implement the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). This article reviews how Nepal overcame industry opposition and to a comprehensive tobacco control law implementing the FCTC. METHODS: We triangulated newspaper articles and policy documents with key informant interviews. RESULTS: With the support of international health groups, local tobacco control advocates worked with policymakers in Nepal to pass a comprehensive tobacco control law that exceeded FCTC obligations. The tobacco industry exploited a time of political transition to block consideration by Parliament, arranged and sponsored foreign tours for legislators, made death threats to tobacco control advocates and their families, and argued for the economic importance of tobacco farms. Despite strong interference from Health, and Law and Justice ministers, a 2009 Supreme Court ruling helped tobacco control advocates secure a comprehensive tobacco control law in 2011 that included rotating pictorial health warning labels covering 75% of both sides of cigarette packages, 100% smoke free public places and workplaces, private homes and vehicles, and a tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship ban. CONCLUSIONS: Advocates in developing countries should utilize Nepal's experience to reject tobacco industry offers of compromise and continue educating politicians and legislators to generate political support to pass a comprehensive tobacco control law. Technical and financial support from international agencies, and effective collaboration and coordination of civil societies, and utilization of domestic litigation are helpful in LMICs where governance is weak (the abstract in Nepali is available as a Supplementary Material). IMPLICATIONS: The tobacco industry exploited a time of political transition in Nepal in its effort to block comprehensive tobacco control policy in Parliament by sponsoring foreign tours of legislatures, making death threats to tobacco control advocates and their families, and arguing for the economic importance of tobacco farms. Tobacco control advocates used litigation to raise awareness and educate legislators and promote strong legislation with the involvement of international health groups. Technical and financial support from international agencies, and effective collaboration and coordination of civil societies, and utilization of domestic litigation are helpful in LMICs where governance is weak.

Economic burden of lung cancer attributable to smoking in China in 2015.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is substantially attributable to smoking, but detailed related estimates on smoking-attributable expenditure (SAE) in China are not available yet, which could inform tobacco control and cancer prevention initiatives. METHODS: A prevalence-based approach was adopted to estimate the total SAE, including direct expenditure (medical and non-medical) and indirect cost (disability and premature death). Detailed per-patient data on direct expenditure and work-loss days were acquired from a unique multicentre survey in China. Other parameters were from literatures and official reports. RESULTS: The total estimated SAE of lung cancer was US$5249 million in China in 2015 (0.05 % of gross domestic product for China). The estimated direct SAE was US$1937 million (36.9 % of the total SAE), accounting for 0.29 % of total healthcare expenditure for China. The medical and non-medical direct expenditures were US$1749 million and US$188 million, respectively. The estimated indirect cost was US$3312 million (63.1 % of the total SAE), including US$377 million due to disability and US$2935 million due to premature death. The SAE increased with age, peaking at 60-64 years (US$1004 million), and was higher among men, in urban areas and in eastern China. If smoking prevalence was reduced to 20%, as is the goal of Healthy China 2030, the total SAE would be decreased by 4.9 %. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking-attributable economic burden caused by lung cancer was substantial in China in 2015, and will continue increasing given current trends in lung cancer. However, future economic burden can be prevented with implementation of effective tobacco control and other interventions.

Changes in roll-your-own tobacco and cigarette sales volume and prices before, during and after plain packaging legislation in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Plain packaging and minimum pack size legislation for tobacco products was introduced in the UK in May 2016, with a 1-year sell-off period until May 2017, during which both fully branded and plain packs of various sizes were legally available. This study investigates trends in prices of roll-your-own tobacco (RYO) before, during and after implementation of this legislation, and compares trends with those observed in the cigarette market. METHODS: We used Nielsen Scantrack data for the period from March 2013 to June 2018 to describe trends in UK inflation-adjusted prices and volumes of both RYO and cigarettes, and linear regression to estimate changes in prices associated with the introduction of plain packaging and the minimum pack sizes of 30 g RYO and 20 cigarettes. RESULTS: In contrast to a downward trend in cigarette sales volumes, RYO volumes rose throughout the study period. By the time plain packs accounted for 75% or more of sales, the average price of products sold in equivalent pack sizes had increased, relative to average prices in the year before implementation and with adjustment for tax changes, from 34.9 to 38.8 pence per gram for RYO (mean difference 4.26, 95% CI 3.99 to 4.53 pence, 12% increase), and from 38.6 to 41.13 pence for cigarettes (mean difference 2.53, 95% CI 2.24 to 2.83 pence, 7% increase) per cigarette. CONCLUSIONS: New legislation resulted in higher prices for RYO and manufactured cigarettes. However, sales volumes of RYO continued to increase throughout the study period, perhaps because RYO remains a less expensive means of smoking tobacco.

'Pro-tobacco propaganda': a case study of tobacco industry-sponsored elementary schools in China.

BACKGROUND: China is the largest producer and consumer of tobacco products worldwide. While direct marketing and advertisement of tobacco products is restricted, indirect marketing still exists under the guise of sponsorship and corporate social responsibility (CSR). This case study is focused on tobacco industry-sponsored elementary schools in Chinese rural areas. METHODS: Field visits were conducted in Yunnan province to interview students, teachers, school principals and parents to understand their perceptions of the tobacco industry and its sponsorship of schools. Interviews with tobacco control activists were conducted in Beijing to discuss national tobacco control efforts targeting tobacco industry sponsorship. Interview data were transcribed and coded, with key themes developed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: While health consequences of smoking are generally known, attitudes towards the tobacco industry and its CSR activities remain positive among the general public. Educators and parents do not perceive any impacts on schoolchildren from exposure to 'pro-tobacco propaganda' created by the industry's CSR activities. Attitudes among tobacco control activists were drastically different, with consensus that CSR activities constitute indirect marketing attempts that should be banned. CONCLUSION: National tobacco control legislation banning all forms of indirect marketing including CSR is needed in order to protect the health of future generations.

Economic Evaluation of Five Tobacco Control Policies Across Seven European Countries.

INTRODUCTION: Economic evaluations of tobacco control policies targeting adolescents are scarce. Few take into account real-world, large-scale implementation costs; few compare cost-effectiveness of different policies across different countries. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of five tobacco control policies (nonschool bans, including bans on sales to minors, bans on smoking in public places, bans on advertising at points-of-sale, school smoke-free bans, and school education programs), implemented in 2016 in Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Italy, and Portugal. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness estimates were calculated per country and per policy, from the State perspective. Costs were collected by combining quantitative questionnaires with semi-structured interviews on how policies were implemented in each setting, in real practice. Short-term effectiveness was based on the literature, and long-term effectiveness was modeled using the DYNAMO-HIA tool. Discount rates of 3.5% were used for costs and effectiveness. Sensitivity analyses considered 1%-50% short-term effectiveness estimates, highest cost estimates, and undiscounted effectiveness. FINDINGS: Nonschool bans cost up to €253.23 per healthy life year, school smoking bans up to €91.87 per healthy life year, and school education programs up to €481.35 per healthy life year. Cost-effectiveness depended on the costs of implementation, short-term effectiveness, initial smoking rates, dimension of the target population, and weight of smoking in overall mortality and morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: All five policies were highly cost-effective in all countries according to the World Health Organization thresholds for public health interventions. Cost-effectiveness was preserved even when using the highest costs and most conservative effectiveness estimates. IMPLICATIONS: Economic evaluations using real-world data on tobacco control policies implemented at a large scale are scarce, especially considering nonschool bans targeting adolescents. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of five tobacco control policies implemented in 2016 in Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Italy, and Portugal. This study shows that all five policies were highly cost-effective considering the World Health Organization threshold, even when considering the highest costs and most conservative effectiveness estimates.

Socioeconomic disparities in smoking are partially explained by chronic financial stress: marginal structural model of older US adults.

BACKGROUND: A persistent socioeconomic gradient in smoking has been observed in a variety of populations. While stress is hypothesised to play a mediating role, the extent of this mediation is unclear. We used marginal structural models (MSMs) to estimate the proportion of the effect of socioeconomic status (SES) on smoking, which can be explained by an indicator of stress related to SES, experiences of chronic financial stress. METHODS: Using the Health and Retirement Study (waves 7-12, 2004-2014), a survey of older adults in the USA, we analysed a total sample of 15 260 people. A latent variable corresponding to adult SES was created using several indicators of socioeconomic position (wealth, income, education, occupation and labour force status). The main analysis was adjusted for other factors that influence the pathway from adult SES to stress and smoking, including personal coping resources, health-related factors, early-life SES indicators and other demographic variables to estimate the proportion of the effect explained by these pathways. RESULTS: Compared with those in the top SES quartile, those in the bottom quartile were more than four times as likely to be current smokers (rate ratio 4.37, 95% CI 3.35 to 5.68). The estimate for the MSM attenuated the effect size to 3.34 (95% CI 2.47 to 4.52). Chronic financial stress explained 30.4% of the association between adult SES and current smoking (95% CI 13 to 48). CONCLUSION: While chronic financial stress accounts for part of the socioeconomic gradient in smoking, much remains unexplained.

The Incentives to Quit tobacco in Pregnancy (IQuiP) protocol: piloting a financial incentive-based smoking treatment for women attending substance use in pregnancy antenatal services.

INTRODUCTION: While tobacco smoking prevalence is falling in many western societies, it remains elevated among high-priority cohorts. Rates up to 95% have been reported in women whose pregnancy is complicated by other substance use. In this group, the potential for poor pregnancy outcomes and adverse physical and neurobiological fetal development are elevated by tobacco smoking. Unfortunately, few targeted and effective tobacco dependence treatments exist to assist cessation in this population. The study will trial an evidence-based, multicomponent tobacco smoking treatment tailored to pregnant women who use other substances. The intervention comprises financial incentives for biochemically verified abstinence, psychotherapy delivered by drug and alcohol counsellors, and nicotine replacement therapy. It will be piloted at three government-based, primary healthcare facilities in New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria, Australia. The study will assess the feasibility and acceptability of the treatment when integrated into routine antenatal care offered by substance use in pregnancy antenatal services. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The study will use a single-arm design with pre-post comparisons. One hundred clients will be recruited from antenatal clinics with a substance use in pregnancy service. Women must be <33 weeks' gestation, ≥16 years old and a current tobacco smoker. The primary outcomes are feasibility, assessed by recruitment and retention and the acceptability of addressing smoking among this population. Secondary outcomes include changes in smoking behaviours, the comparison of adverse maternal outcomes and neonatal characteristics to those of a historical control group, and a cost-consequence analysis of the intervention implementation. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Protocol approval was granted by Hunter New England Human Research Ethics Committee (Reference 17/04/12/4.05), with additional ethical approval sought from the Aboriginal Health and Medical Research Council of NSW (Reference 1249/17). Findings will be disseminated via academic conferences, peer-reviewed publications and social media. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Australia New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry (Ref: ACTRN12618000576224).

Examining effects of unit price on preference for reduced nicotine content cigarettes and smoking rate.

Cigarette preference increases as a function of greater nicotine content, but manipulating cost can shift preference. The aims of the present study are to model whether (1) the behavioral-economic metric unit price (cost/reinforcer magnitude) accounts for preference shifts and (2) whether preference shifts toward reduced nicotine content are associated with smoking reductions. In a multisite study between 2015 and 2016, 169 daily smokers from vulnerable populations completed two concurrent-choice conditions examining preference for smoking normal (15.8 mg/g) and reduced (0.4 mg/g) nicotine content cigarettes. In Condition 1, both products were available at 10 responses/choice. In Condition 2, availability of the 0.4 mg/g dose remained at 10 responses/choice while the 15.8 mg/g dose was available on a progressive-ratio (PR) schedule wherein response cost increased following each choice. Unit prices were calculated by dividing dose by response requirement. Results were analyzed using ANOVA and binomial tests (p < .05). Participants preferred the 15.8 over 0.4 mg/g dose in Condition 1, but shifted preference to the 0.4 mg/g dose in Condition 2 (p < .001) immediately before the point in the PR progression where unit price for 15.8 dose exceeded unit price for the 0.4 dose (p < .001). This shift was associated with a reduction in smoking (p < .001). The unit price of nicotine appears to underpin cigarette product preference and may provide a metric for predicting preference and potentially impacting it through tobacco regulations. These results also demonstrate that reduced compared to normal nicotine content cigarettes sustain lower smoking rates discernible even under acute laboratory conditions and in vulnerable populations.

[The evaluation of direct economic loss related to tobacco smoking in 2009 and 2016].

The article presents an assessment of the economic damage associated with smoking for the period of 2009-2016. The obtained data on the prevalence of tobacco dependence for 2009-2016 showed, on the one hand, a decrease in tobacco dependence among the population surveyed, and on the other hand, an increase in the share of consumer spending on tobacco products and of an index of the physical volume of retail sales of tobacco products. The study included an analysis of the incidence of diseases associated with smoking, as well as an analysis of the attendance of medical care for patients with tobacco-related diseases.

Smokers' strategies across social grades to minimise the cost of smoking in a period with annual tax increases: evidence from a national survey in England.

OBJECTIVES: To assess associations between smokers' strategies to minimise how much their smoking costs and cost of smoking among smokers across three social grades during a period of annual tax increases in England. DESIGN: Repeat cross-sectional. SETTING: England, May 2012-December 2016. PARTICIPANTS: 16 967 adult smokers in 56 monthly surveys with nationally representative samples. MEASURES AND ANALYSIS: Weighted generalised additive models assessed associations between four cost-minimising strategies (factory-made and roll-your-own (RYO) cigarette consumption levels, illicit and cross-border purchases) and cost of smoking (£/week). We adjusted for inflation rate, age, gender and secular and seasonal trends. RESULTS: Cost of smoking did not increase above the rate of inflation. Factory-made cigarette consumption decreased, while proportion of RYO and, to a much lesser extent, illicit and cross-border purchases increased. These trends were only evident in lowest social grade. Cost of smoking was 12.99% lower with consumption of 10 fewer factory-made cigarettes (95% CI -13.18 to -12.80) and 5.86% lower with consumption of 10 fewer RYO cigarettes (95% CI -5.66 to -6.06). Consumption levels accounted for 60% of variance in cost. Cross-border and illicit tobacco purchases were associated with 9.64% (95% CI -12.94 to -6.33) and 9.47% (95% CI -12.74 to -6.20) lower costs, respectively, but due to low prevalence, accounted for only 0.2% of variation. Associations were similar across social grades, although weaker for illicit and cross-border purchases and stronger for consumption in higher social grades compared with lower social grades. CONCLUSION: During a period of annual tax increases, the weekly cost of smoking did not increase above inflation. Cost-minimising strategies increased, especially among more disadvantaged smokers. Reducing cigarette consumption and switching to RYO tobacco explained a large part of cost variation, while use of illicit and cross-border purchasing played only a minor role.

The Experimental Tobacco Marketplace: Narratives engage cognitive biases to increase electronic cigarette substitution.

BACKGROUND: The Experimental Tobacco Marketplace (ETM) is a digital storefront in which participants can purchase tobacco products using an account balance that reflects their typical tobacco product purchasing. The ETM is also an ideal resource to investigate the harm-reduction potential of alternative nicotine products such as e-cigarettes. In a series of experiments, we explored the effects of harm-reduction narratives that encouraged e-cigarette substitution of conventional cigarettes in the ETM. These narratives incorporated different cognitive biases in order to determine which strategy is most effective. METHODS: In both experiments, participants, recruited from Amazon Mechanical Turk, read a narrative about a friend that either falls ill or faces financial difficulties and then made purchases in the ETM. Some of these narratives specifically incorporated different cognitive biases including trusting authority. Across ETM trials, the price of conventional cigarettes increased while the price of the alternative products, including e-cigarettes, remained constant. RESULTS: Across both experiments, a general pattern emerged supporting the effectiveness of narratives in increasing e-cigarette purchasing. Importantly, from a harm-reduction perspective, this increase in e-cigarette substitution frequently corresponded with a decrease in conventional cigarette purchasing. CONCLUSIONS: Narratives can decrease conventional cigarette and increase e-cigarette purchasing in an ETM that mimics real-world marketplaces. Invoking different cognitive biases may bolster this effect. Narratives can be a valuable harm-reduction tool because they are cost-effective, can be widely disseminated, and can be personalized to individuals.

Roll-your-own cigarette use in Italy: sales and consumer profile-data from PASSI surveillance, 2015-2016.

OBJECTIVES: The use of roll-your-own (RYO) cigarette has substantially increased in most high-income countries recently. This work aims to update Italian trends on loose tobacco sales and to describe the consumer profile of predominant RYO users. METHODS: Data from the Italian Agency of Customs and State Monopolies and from PASSI (Italian behavioral risk factor surveillance system) were used. Information on 16,858 interviews to current smokers aged 18-69 was analyzed. RESULTS: Sales of loose tobacco increased more than sevenfold between 2004 and 2017. In 2015-2016, 11.6% of smokers reported smoking predominantly RYO cigarettes, with higher percentages among the youngest where a significant association between use of RYO and education was observed, unlike what happened in older adults. The association between economic difficulties and use of RYO was observed only in older adults. CONCLUSIONS: A growing trend in RYO cigarette sales was registered between 2004 and 2017. In young smokers, the greater use of RYO was observed among the most educated regardless of financial strain, while in older ones among those with economic difficulties.