Ongoing Assessment of the Molecular Evolution of Peste Des Petits Ruminants Virus Continues to Question Viral Origins.

Understanding the evolution of viral pathogens is critical to being able to define how viruses emerge within different landscapes. Host susceptibility, which is spread between different species and is a contributing factor to the subsequent epidemiology of a disease, is defined by virus detection and subsequent characterization. Peste des petits ruminants virus is a plague of small ruminant species that is a considerable burden to the development of sustainable agriculture across Africa and much of Asia. The virus has also had a significant impact on populations of endangered species in recent years, highlighting its significance as a pathogen of high concern across different regions of the globe. Here, we have re-evaluated the molecular evolution of this virus using novel genetic data to try and further resolve the molecular epidemiology of this disease. Viral isolates are genetically characterized into four lineages (I-IV), and the historic origin of these lineages is of considerable interest to the molecular evolution of the virus. Our re-evaluation of viral emergence using novel genome sequences has demonstrated that lineages I, II and IV likely originated in West Africa, in Senegal (I) and Nigeria (II and IV). Lineage III sequences predicted emergence in either East Africa (Ethiopia) or in the Arabian Peninsula (Oman and/or the United Arab Emirates), with a paucity of data precluding a more refined interpretation. Continual refinements of evolutionary emergence, following the generation of new data, is key to both understanding viral evolution from a historic perspective and informing on the ongoing genetic emergence of this virus.

Overcoming limitations in the availability of swabs systems used for SARS-CoV-2 laboratory diagnostics.

The diagnosis of COVID-19 relies on the direct detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in respiratory specimens by RT-PCR. The pandemic spread of the disease caused an imbalance between demand and supply of materials and reagents needed for diagnostic purposes including swab sets. In a comparative effectiveness study, we conducted serial follow-up swabs in hospitalized laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients. We assessed the diagnostic performance of an in-house system developed according to recommendations by the US CDC. In a total of 96 serial swabs, we found significant differences in the accuracy of the different swab systems to generate a positive result in SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR, ranging from around 50 to 80%. Of note, an in-house swab system was superior to most commercially available sets as reflected by significantly lower Ct values of viral genes. Thus, a simple combination of broadly available materials may enable diagnostic laboratories to bypass global limitations in the supply of swab sets.

Comprehensive Assessment of the Antigenic Impact of Human Papillomavirus Lineage Variation on Recognition by Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibodies Raised against Lineage A Major Capsid Proteins of Vaccine-Related Genotypes.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the causative agent of cervical and other epithelial cancers. Naturally occurring variants of HPV have been classified into lineages and sublineages based on their whole-genome sequences, but little is known about the impact of this diversity on the structure and function of viral gene products. The HPV capsid is an icosahedral lattice comprising 72 pentamers of the major capsid protein (L1) and the associated minor capsid protein (L2). We investigated the potential impact of this genome variation on the capsid antigenicity of lineage and sublineage variants of seven vaccine-relevant, oncogenic HPV genotypes by using a large panel of monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) raised against the L1 proteins of lineage A antigens. Each genotype had at least one variant that displayed a ≥4-fold reduced neutralizing antibody sensitivity against at least one MAb, demonstrating that naturally occurring variation can affect one or more functional antigenic determinants on the HPV capsid. For HPV16, HPV18, HPV31, and HPV45, the overall impact was of a low magnitude. For HPV33 (sublineages A2 and A3 and lineages B and C), HPV52 (lineage D), and HPV58 (lineage C), however, variant residues in the indicated lineages and sublineages reduced their sensitivity to neutralization by all MAbs by up to 1,000-fold, suggesting the presence of key antigenic determinants on the surface of these capsids. These determinants were resolved further by site-directed mutagenesis. These data improve our understanding of the impact of naturally occurring variation on the antigenicity of the HPV capsid of vaccine-relevant oncogenic HPV genotypes.IMPORTANCE Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the causative agent of cervical and some other epithelial cancers. HPV vaccines generate functional (neutralizing) antibodies that target the virus particles (or capsids) of the most common HPV cancer-causing genotypes. Each genotype comprises variant forms that have arisen over millennia and which include changes within the capsid proteins. In this study, we explored the potential for these naturally occurring variant capsids to impact recognition by neutralizing monoclonal antibodies. All genotypes included at least one variant form that exhibited reduced recognition by at least one antibody, with some genotypes affected more than others. These data highlight the impact of naturally occurring variation on the structure of the HPV capsid proteins of vaccine-relevant oncogenic HPV genotypes.

Development and evaluation of a rapid CRISPR-based diagnostic for COVID-19.

The recent outbreak of human infections caused by SARS-CoV-2, the third zoonotic coronavirus has raised great public health concern globally. Rapid and accurate diagnosis of this novel pathogen posts great challenges not only clinically but also technologically. Metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) and reverse-transcription PCR (RT-PCR) have been the most commonly used molecular methodologies. However, each has their own limitations. In this study, we developed an isothermal, CRISPR-based diagnostic for COVID-19 with near single-copy sensitivity. The diagnostic performances of all three technology platforms were also compared. Our study aimed to provide more insights into the molecular detection of SARS-CoV-2, and also to present a novel diagnostic option for this new emerging virus.

Selection for Reducing Energy Cost of Protein Production Drives the GC Content and Amino Acid Composition Bias in Gene Transfer Agents.

Gene transfer agents (GTAs) are virus-like elements integrated into bacterial genomes, particularly, those of Alphaproteobacteria The GTAs can be induced under conditions of nutritional stress, incorporate random fragments of bacterial DNA into miniphage particles, lyse the host cells, and infect neighboring bacteria, thus enhancing horizontal gene transfer. We show that GTA genes evolve under conditions of pronounced positive selection for the reduction of the energy cost of protein production as shown by comparison of the amino acid compositions with those of both homologous viral genes and host genes. The energy saving in GTA genes is comparable to or even more pronounced than that in the genes encoding the most abundant, essential bacterial proteins. In cases in which viruses acquire genes from GTAs, the bias in amino acid composition disappears in the course of evolution, showing that reduction of the energy cost of protein production is an important factor of evolution of GTAs but not bacterial viruses. These findings strongly suggest that GTAs represent bacterial adaptations rather than selfish, virus-like elements. Because GTA production kills the host cell and does not propagate the GTA genome, it appears likely that the GTAs are retained in the course of evolution via kin or group selection. Therefore, we hypothesize that GTAs facilitate the survival of bacterial populations under energy-limiting conditions through the spread of metabolic and transport capabilities via horizontal gene transfer and increases in nutrient availability resulting from the altruistic suicide of GTA-producing cells.IMPORTANCE Kin selection and group selection remain controversial topics in evolutionary biology. We argue that these types of selection are likely to operate in bacterial populations by showing that bacterial gene transfer agents (GTAs), but not related viruses, evolve under conditions of positive selection for the reduction of the energy cost of GTA particle production. We hypothesize that GTAs are dedicated devices mediating the survival of bacteria under conditions of nutrient limitation. The benefits conferred by GTAs under nutritional stress conditions appear to include horizontal dissemination of genes that could provide bacteria with enhanced capabilities for nutrient utilization and increases of nutrient availability occurring through the lysis of GTA-producing bacteria.

The ability of single genes vs full genomes to resolve time and space in outbreak analysis.

BACKGROUND: Inexpensive pathogen genome sequencing has had a transformative effect on the field of phylodynamics, where ever increasing volumes of data have promised real-time insight into outbreaks of infectious disease. As well as the sheer volume of pathogen isolates being sequenced, the sequencing of whole pathogen genomes, rather than select loci, has allowed phylogenetic analyses to be carried out at finer time scales, often approaching serial intervals for infections caused by rapidly evolving RNA viruses. Despite its utility, whole genome sequencing of pathogens has not been adopted universally and targeted sequencing of loci is common in some pathogen-specific fields. RESULTS: In this study we highlighted the utility of sequencing whole genomes of pathogens by re-analysing a well-characterised collection of Ebola virus sequences in the form of complete viral genomes (≈19 kb long) or the rapidly evolving glycoprotein (GP, ≈2 kb long) gene. We have quantified changes in phylogenetic, temporal, and spatial inference resolution as a result of this reduction in data and compared these to theoretical expectations. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a simple intuitive metric for quantifying temporal resolution, i.e. the time scale over which sequence data might be informative of various processes as a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation of statistical power available to molecular clock analyses.

Phylogeographical and cross-species transmission dynamics of SAT1 and SAT2 foot-and-mouth disease virus in Eastern Africa.

Understanding the dynamics of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), an endemic and economically constraining disease, is critical in designing control programmes in Africa. This study investigates the evolutionary epidemiology of SAT1 and SAT2 FMDV in Eastern Africa, as well as between cattle and wild African buffalo. Bayesian phylodynamic models were used to analyse SAT1 and SAT2 VP1 gene segments collected between 1975 and 2016, focusing on the SAT1 and SAT2 viruses currently circulating in Eastern Africa. The root state posterior probabilities inferred from our analyses suggest Zimbabwe as the ancestral location for SAT1 currently circulating in Eastern Africa (p = 0.67). For the SAT2 clade, Kenya is inferred to be the ancestral location for introduction of the virus into other countries in Eastern Africa (p = 0.72). Salient (Bayes factor >10) viral dispersal routes were inferred from Tanzania to Kenya, and from Kenya to Uganda for SAT1 and SAT2, respectively. Results suggest that cattle are the source of the SAT1 and SAT2 clades currently circulating in Eastern Africa. In addition, our results suggest that the majority of SAT1 and SAT2 in livestock come from other livestock rather than wildlife, with limited evidence that buffalo serve as reservoirs for cattle. Insights from the present study highlight the role of cattle movements and anthropogenic activities in shaping the evolutionary history of SAT1 and SAT2 in Eastern Africa. While the results may be affected by inherent limitations of imperfect surveillance, our analysis elucidates the dynamics between host species in this region, which is key to guiding disease intervention activities.

Efficacy and safety assessment of two enterococci phages in an in vitro biofilm wound model.

Chronic wounds affect thousands of people worldwide, causing pain and discomfort to patients and represent significant economical burdens to health care systems. The treatment of chronic wounds is very difficult and complex, particularly when wounds are colonized by bacterial biofilms which are highly tolerant to antibiotics. Enterococcus faecium and Enterococcus faecalis are within the most frequent bacteria present in chronic wounds. Bacteriophages (phages) have been proposed as an efficient and alternative against antibiotic-resistant infections, as those found in chronic wounds. We have isolated and characterized two novel enterococci phages, the siphovirus vB_EfaS-Zip (Zip) and the podovirus vB_EfaP-Max (Max) to be applied during wound treatment. Both phages demonstrated lytic behavior against E. faecalis and E. faecium. Genome analysis of both phages suggests the absence of genes associated with lysogeny. A phage cocktail containing both phages was tested against biofilms formed in wound simulated conditions at a multiplicity of infection of 1.0 and a 2.5 log CFU.mL-1 reduction in the bacterial load after at 3 h of treatment was observed. Phages were also tested in epithelial cells colonized by these bacterial species and a 3 log CFU.mL-1 reduction was observed using both phages. The high efficacy of these new isolated phages against multi-species biofilms, their stability at different temperatures and pH ranges, short latent periods and non-cytotoxicity to epithelial cells suggest their therapeutic use to control infectious biofilms present in chronic wounds.

Persistence and continuous evolution of the human respiratory syncytial virus in northern Taiwan for two decades.

The study aimed to characterize the molecular epidemiology, phylogenetic relationship, and population dynamics of the G protein gene in clinical respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) strains isolated from northern Taiwan. We analyzed a total of 160 and 116 G protein gene sequences of RSV-A and RSV-B representative strains, respectively, from 804 clinical viral stocks collected between July 2000 and June 2016. Population dynamic patterns of the RSV G protein gene were analyzed using Bayesian inference through the Markov chain Monte Carlo framework. A phylogenetic analysis revealed that RSV-A from Taiwan could be categorized into GA2, GA5, and GA7 lineages. GA2 of RSV-A could be further divided into NA1, NA2, NA4, and ON1 clades. These RSV-A lineages has been replaced over time, whereas RSV-B strains from Taiwan continually evolved from a single lineage with significant time-dependent waves. Four putative positive selection sites were observed in both RSV-A and RSV-B. The Bayesian skyline plot revealed that the local population dynamics of RSV were associated with lineage displacement events. Both circulating subtypes and population dynamics represented a unique local pattern. Our results affirm the necessity of continuing molecular surveillance of RSV to attain a more comprehensive understanding of epidemics.

Genetic evolution analysis and pathogenicity assessment of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus strains circulating in part of China during 2011-2017.

In recent years, the outbreaks of porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) caused by the highly virulent porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) variants occurred frequently in China, resulting in severe economic impacts to the pork industry. In this study, we selected and analyzed the genetic evolution of 15 PEDV representative strains that were identified in fecal samples of diarrheic piglets in 10 provinces and cities during 2011-2017. The phylogenetic analysis indicated that all the 15 PEDV isolates clustered into G2 genotype associated with the current circulating strains. Compared with the genome of the prototype strain CV777, these strains had 103-120 amino acid mutations in their S proteins, most of which were in the N terminal domain of S1 (S1-NTD). We also found 37 common mutations in all these 15 strains, although these strains shared 96.9-99.7% nucleotide homology and 96.3-99.8% amino acid homology in the S protein compared with the other original pandemic strains. Computational analysis showed that these mutations may lead to remarkable changes in the conformational structure and asparagine (N)-linked glycosylation sites of S1-NTD, which may be associated with the altered pathogenicity of these variant PEDV strains. We evaluated the pathogenicity of the PEDV strain FJzz1 in piglets through oral and intramuscular infection routes. Compared with oral infection, intramuscular infection could also cause typical clinical signs but with a slightly delayed onset, confirming that the variant PEDV isolate FJzz1 was highly pathogenic to suckling piglets. In conclusion, we analyzed the genetic variation and pathogenicity of the emerging PEDV isolates of China, indicating that G2 variant PEDV strains as the main prevalent strains that may mutate continually. This study shows the necessity of monitoring the molecular epidemiology and the etiological characteristics of the epidemic PEDV isolates, which may help better control the PED outbreaks.

Evolutionary study and phylodynamic pattern of human influenza A/H3N2 virus in Indonesia from 2008 to 2010.

Influenza viruses are by nature unstable with high levels of mutations. The sequential accumulation of mutations in the surface glycoproteins allows the virus to evade the neutralizing antibodies. The consideration of the tropics as the influenza reservoir where viral genetic and antigenic diversity are continually generated and reintroduced into temperate countries makes the study of influenza virus evolution in Indonesia essential. A total of 100 complete coding sequences (CDS) of Hemagglutinin (HA) and Neuraminidase (NA) genes of H3N2 virus were obtained from archived samples of Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) surveillance collected from 2008 to 2010. Our evolutionary and phylogenetic analyses provide insight into the dynamic changes of Indonesian H3N2 virus from 2008 to 2010. Obvious antigenic drift with typical 'ladder-like' phylogeny was observed with multiple lineages found in each year, suggesting co-circulation of H3N2 strains at different time periods. The mutational pattern of the Indonesian H3N2 virus was not geographically related as relatively low levels of mutations with similar pattern of relative genetic diversity were observed in various geographical origins. This study reaffirms that the existence of a particular lineage is most likely the result of adaptation or competitive exclusion among different host populations and combination of stochastic ecological factors, rather than its geographical origin alone.

A novel cell autolysis system for cost-competitive downstream processing.

The industrial production of low value-added biological products poses significant challenges due to cost pressures. In recent years, it has been argued that synthetic biology approaches will lead to breakthroughs that eliminate price bottlenecks for the production of a wide range of biological products including bioplastics and biofuels. One significant bottleneck lies in the necessity to break the tough cell walls of microbes in order to release intracellular products. We here report the implementation of the first synthetic biology standard part based on the lambda phage SRRz genes and a synthetic ribosome binding site (RBS) that works in Escherichia coli and Halomonas campaniensis, which enables the producer strains to induce lysis after the addition of small amounts (1-5 %) of solvents or to spontaneously lyse during the stresses of downstream processing, and thus has the potential to eliminate the mechanical cell disruption step as both an efficiency bottleneck and a significant capex barrier when implementing downstream bioprocesses.

Near real-time monitoring of HIV transmission hotspots from routine HIV genotyping: an implementation case study.

BACKGROUND: HIV evolves rapidly and therefore infections with similar genetic sequences are likely linked by recent transmission events. Clusters of related infections can represent subpopulations with high rates of transmission. We describe the implementation of an automated near real-time system to monitor and characterise HIV transmission hotspots in British Columbia, Canada. METHODS: In this implementation case study, we applied a monitoring system to the British Columbia drug treatment database, which holds more than 32 000 anonymised HIV genotypes for nearly 9000 residents of British Columbia living with HIV. On average, five to six new HIV genotypes are deposited in the database every day, which triggers an automated reanalysis of the entire database. We extracted clusters of five or more individuals with short phylogenetic distances between their respective HIV sequences. The system generated monthly reports of the growth and characteristics of clusters that were distributed to public health officers. FINDINGS: In June, 2014, the monitoring system detected the expansion of a cluster by 11 new cases during 3 months, including eight cases with transmitted drug resistance. This cluster generally comprised young men who have sex with men. The subsequent report precipitated an enhanced public health follow-up to ensure linkage to care and treatment initiation in the affected subpopulation. Of the nine cases associated with this follow-up, all had already been linked to care and five cases had started treatment. Subsequent to the follow-up, three additional cases started treatment and most cases achieved suppressed viral loads. During the next 12 months, we detected 12 new cases in this cluster with reduction in the onward transmission of drug resistance. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show the first application of an automated phylogenetic system monitoring a clinical database to detect a recent HIV outbreak and support the ensuing public health response. By making secondary use of routinely collected HIV genotypes, this approach is cost-effective, attains near real-time monitoring of new cases, and can be implemented in all settings in which HIV genotyping is the standard of care. FUNDING: BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, the Canadian Institutes for Health Research, the Genome Canada-CIHR Partnership in Genomics and Personalized Health, and the US National Institute on Drug Abuse.

Dating the origin and dispersal of Human Papillomavirus type 16 on the basis of ancestral human migrations.

A major limitation when reconstructing the origin and evolution of HPV-16 is the lack of reliable substitution rate estimates for the viral genes. On the basis of the hypothesis of human HPV-16 co-divergence, we estimated a mean evolutionary rate of 1.47×10(-7) (95% HPD=0.64-2.47×10(-7)) subs/site/year for the viral LCR region. The results of a Bayesian phylogeographical analysis suggest that the currently circulating HPV-16 most probably originated in Africa about 110 thousand years ago (Kya), before giving rise to four known geographical lineages: the Asian/European lineage, which most probably originated in Asia a mean 38 Kya, and the Asian/American and two African lineages, which probably respectively originated about 33 and 27 Kya. These data closely reflect current hypotheses concerning modern human expansion based on studies of mitochondrial DNA phylogeny. The correlation between ancient human migration and the present HPV phylogeny may be explained by the co-existence of modes of transmission other than sexual transmission.

Molecular evolution of haemagglutinin (H) gene in measles virus.

We studied the molecular evolution of the haemagglutinin (H) gene (full length) in all genotypes (24 genotypes, 297 strains) of measles virus (MeV). The gene's evolutionary timescale was estimated by the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. We also analysed positive selection sites. The MCMC tree indicated that the MeV H gene diverged from the rinderpest virus (same genus) about 250 years ago and that 24 MeV genotypes formed 3 lineages dating back to a 1915 ancestor (95% highest posterior density [HPD] 1882-1941) with relatively rapid evolution (mean rate: 9.02 × 10(-4) substitutions/site/year). The 3 lineages diverged in 1915 (lineage 1, 95% HPD 1882-1941), 1954 (lineage 2, 95% HPD 1937-1969), and 1940 (lineage 3, 95% HPD 1927-1952). These 24 genotypes may have diverged and emerged between the 1940s and 1990 s. Selective pressure analysis identified many negative selection sites on the H protein but only a few positive selection sites, suggesting strongly operated structural and/or functional constraint of changes on the H protein. Based on the molecular evolution of H gene, an ancestor MeV of the 24 genotypes emerged about 100 years ago and the structure of H protein has been well conserved.

Yakammaoto inhibits enterovirus 71 infection by reducing viral attachment, internalization, replication, and translation.

Enterovirus 71 (EV71) can cause central nervous system infections with mortality and neurologic sequelae. At present, there is no effective therapeutic modality for EV71 infection. The infection is more common in families with poor socioeconomic status. Therefore, finding a readily available, cost-effective therapeutic modality would be very helpful to these socioeconomically disadvantaged families. Yakammaoto is a cheap and readily available traditional prescription that is proven to have antiviral activity against coxsackievirus B4 (CVB4). CVB4 and EV71 are enteroviruses. In this study, we evaluated the antiviral activity of hot water extract of yakammaoto against EV71. The results of plaque reduction assay and flow cytometry demonstrated that yakammaoto dose dependently inhibited EV71 infection. In addition, reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and quantitative RT-PCR results showed that yakammaoto reduced viral replication. Western blotting analysis showed that yakammaoto can inhibit viral protein production. Thus, our results suggest that yakammaoto should be considered to manage EV71 infection in the future.

Vesicular stomatitis virus polymerase's strong affinity to its template suggests exotic transcription models.

Vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) is the prototype for negative sense non segmented (NNS) RNA viruses which include potent human and animal pathogens such as Rabies, Ebola and measles. The polymerases of NNS RNA viruses only initiate transcription at or near the 3' end of their genome template. We measured the dissociation constant of VSV polymerases from their whole genome template to be 20 pM. Given this low dissociation constant, initiation and sustainability of transcription becomes nontrivial. To explore possible mechanisms, we simulated the first hour of transcription using Monte Carlo methods and show that a one-time initial dissociation of all polymerases during entry is not sufficient to sustain transcription. We further show that efficient transcription requires a sliding mechanism for non-transcribing polymerases and can be realized with different polymerase-polymerase interactions and distinct template topologies. In conclusion, we highlight a model in which collisions between transcribing and sliding non-transcribing polymerases result in release of the non-transcribing polymerases allowing for redistribution of polymerases between separate templates during transcription and suggest specific experiments to further test these mechanisms.

Costs and benefits of mutational robustness in RNA viruses.

The accumulation of mutations in RNA viruses is thought to facilitate rapid adaptation to changes in the environment. However, most mutations have deleterious effects on fitness, especially for viruses. Thus, tolerance to mutations should determine the nature and extent of genetic diversity that can be maintained in the population. Here, we combine population genetics theory, computer simulation, and experimental evolution to examine the advantages and disadvantages of tolerance to mutations, also known as mutational robustness. We find that mutational robustness increases neutral diversity and, as expected, can facilitate adaptation to a new environment. Surprisingly, under certain conditions, robustness may also be an impediment for viral adaptation, if a highly diverse population contains a large proportion of previously neutral mutations that are deleterious in the new environment. These findings may inform therapeutic strategies that cause extinction of otherwise robust viral populations.

The origin of novel avian influenza A (H7N9) and mutation dynamics for its human-to-human transmissible capacity.

In February 2013, H7N9 (A/H7N9/2013_China), a novel avian influenza virus, broke out in eastern China and caused human death. It is a global priority to discover its origin and the point in time at which it will become transmittable between humans. We present here an interdisciplinary method to track the origin of H7N9 virus in China and to establish an evolutionary dynamics model for its human-to-human transmission via mutations. After comparing influenza viruses from China since 1983, we established an A/H7N9/2013_China virus evolutionary phylogenetic tree and found that the human instances of virus infection were of avian origin and clustered into an independent line. Comparing hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) gene sequences of A/H7N9/2013_China viruses with all human-to-human, avian, and swine influenza viruses in China in the past 30 years, we found that A/H7N9/2013_China viruses originated from Baer's Pochard H7N1 virus of Hu Nan Province 2010 (HA gene, EPI: 370846, similarity with H7N9 is 95.5%) and duck influenza viruses of Nanchang city 2000 (NA gene, EPI: 387555, similarity with H7N9 is 97%) through genetic re-assortment. HA and NA gene sequence comparison indicated that A/H7N9/2013_China virus was not similar to human-to-human transmittable influenza viruses. To simulate the evolution dynamics required for human-to-human transmission mutations of H7N9 virus, we employed the Markov model. The result of this calculation indicated that the virus would acquire properties for human-to-human transmission in 11.3 years (95% confidence interval (CI): 11.2-11.3, HA gene).

Evolution of type 2 vaccine derived poliovirus lineages. Evidence for codon-specific positive selection at three distinct locations on capsid wall.

Partial sequences of 110 type 2 poliovirus strains isolated from sewage in Slovakia in 2003-2005, and most probably originating from a single dose of oral poliovirus vaccine, were subjected to a detailed genetic analysis. Evolutionary patterns of these vaccine derived poliovirus strains (SVK-aVDPV2) were compared to those of type 1 and type 3 wild poliovirus (WPV) lineages considered to have a single seed strain origin, respectively. The 102 unique SVK-aVDPV VP1 sequences were monophyletic differing from that of the most likely parental poliovirus type 2/Sabin (PV2 Sabin) by 12.5-15.6%. Judging from this difference and from the rate of accumulation of synonymous transversions during the 22 month observation period, the relevant oral poliovirus vaccine dose had been administered to an unknown recipient more than 12 years earlier. The patterns of nucleotide substitution during the observation period differed from those found in the studied lineages of WPV1 or 3, including a lower transition/transversion (Ts/Tv) bias and strikingly lower Ts/Tv rate ratios at the 2(nd) codon position for both purines and pyrimidines. A relatively low preference of transitions at the 2(nd) codon position was also found in the large set of VP1 sequences of Nigerian circulating (c)VDPV2, as well as in the smaller sets from the Hispaniola cVDPV1 and Egypt cVDPV2 outbreaks, and among aVDPV1and aVDPV2 strains recently isolated from sewage in Finland. Codon-wise analysis of synonymous versus non-synonymous substitution rates in the VP1 sequences suggested that in five codons, those coding for amino acids at sites 24, 144, 147, 221 and 222, there may have been positive selection during the observation period. We conclude that pattern of poliovirus VP1 evolution in prolonged infection may differ from that found in WPV epidemics. Further studies on sufficiently large independent datasets are needed to confirm this suggestion and to reveal its potential significance.