A Comparison of Markov and Mechanistic Models for Soil-Transmitted Helminth Prevalence Projections in the Context of Survey Design.

Globally, there are over 1 billion people infected with soil-transmitted helminths (STHs), mostly living in marginalized settings with inadequate sanitation in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. The World Health Organization recommends an integrated approach to STH morbidity control through improved access to sanitation and hygiene education and the delivery of preventive chemotherapy (PC) to school-age children delivered through schools. Progress of STH control programs is currently estimated using a baseline (pre-PC) school-based prevalence survey and then monitored using periodical school-based prevalence surveys, known as Impact Assessment Surveys (IAS). We investigated whether integrating geostatistical methods with a Markov model or a mechanistic transmission model for projecting prevalence forward in time from baseline can improve IAS design strategies. To do this, we applied these 2 methods to prevalence data collected in Kenya, before evaluating and comparing their performance in accurately informing optimal survey design for a range of IAS sampling designs. We found that, although both approaches performed well, the mechanistic method more accurately projected prevalence over time and provided more accurate information for guiding survey design. Both methods performed less well in areas with persistent STH hotspots where prevalence did not decrease despite multiple rounds of PC. Our findings show that these methods can be useful tools for more efficient and accurate targeting of PC. The general framework built in this paper can also be used for projecting prevalence and informing survey design for other neglected tropical diseases.

Soil-transmitted helminth infections and nutritional indices among Filipino schoolchildren.

BACKGROUND: Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections are still prevalent among schoolchildren in the Philippines. We evaluated the risk factors associated with STH and the relationship between STH and nutritional indices among schoolchildren aged 9-10 years in Laguna province, the Philippines. METHODS: We used the baseline data from 40 schools enrolled in a randomised controlled trial of the Magic Glasses Philippines health education package. Data on demographic and socio-economic variables, and STH related knowledge, attitudes and practices, were obtained through a questionnaire. Stool samples were collected and assessed for STH egg presence using the Kato-Katz technique. Haemoglobin levels and height and weight of study participants were also determined. The generalized estimating equations approach was used to construct logistic regression models to assess STH-associated risk factors, and the association between any STH infection and anaemia, child stunting, wasting and being underweight. The trial is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12616000508471). FINDINGS: Among 1,689 schoolchildren, the prevalence of any STH was 23%. The prevalence of anaemia, stunting, being underweight and wasting was 13%, 20.2%, 19% and 9.5%, respectively. Age, socio-economic status, rural/urban classification of schools and knowledge of STH were significant risk factors for acquiring a STH infection. Moreover, infections with any STH were significantly associated with stunting (P = <0.001) and being underweight (P = <0.003), but not wasting (P = 0.375) or anaemia (P = 0.462) after controlling for confounding covariates. CONCLUSION: The study findings emphasise the need for sustainable deworming in tandem with other measures such as the provision of health education, improvements in sanitation and hygiene, and nutritional programs in order to control STH infections and improve morbidity outcomes in schoolchildren. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12616000508471).

The epidemiology of soil-transmitted helminth infections in children up to 8 years of age: Findings from an Ecuadorian birth cohort.

BACKGROUND: There are few prospective longitudinal studies of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections during early childhood. We studied the epidemiology of and risk factors for soil-transmitted helminth infections from birth to 8 years of age in tropical Ecuador. METHODS: 2,404 newborns were followed to 8 years of age with periodic stool sample collections. Stool samples were collected also from household members at the time of the child's birth and examined by microscopy. Data on social, environmental, and demographic characteristics were collected by maternal questionnaire. Associations between potential risk factors and STH infections were estimated using generalized estimated equations applied to longitudinal binary outcomes for presence or absence of infections at collection times. RESULTS: Of 2,404 children, 1,120 (46.6%) were infected with at least one STH infection during the first 8 years of life. The risk of A. lumbricoides (16.2%) was greatest at 3 years, while risks of any STH (25.1%) and T. trichiura (16.5%) peaked at 5 years. Factors significantly associated with any STH infection in multivariable analyses included age, day-care (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.03-1.73), maternal Afro-Ecuadorian ethnicity (non-Afro vs. Afro, OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.43-0.70) and lower educational level (secondary vs. illiterate, OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.22-0.45)), household overcrowding (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.21-1.94)), having a latrine rather than a water closet (WC vs. latrine, OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.62-0.95)), and STH infections among household members (OR 2.03, 95% CI 1.59-2.58)). T. trichiura was more associated with poverty (high vs. low socioeconomic status, OR, 0.63, 95% CI 0.40-0.99)] and presence of infected siblings in the household (OR 3.42, 95% CI 2.24-5.22). CONCLUSION: STH infections, principally with A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura, peaked between 3 and 5 years in this cohort of children in tropical Ecuador. STH infections among household members were an important determinant of infection risk and could be targeted for control and elimination strategies.

Assessment of the required performance and the development of corresponding program decision rules for neglected tropical diseases diagnostic tests: Monitoring and evaluation of soil-transmitted helminthiasis control programs as a case study.

Recently, the World Health Organization established the Diagnostic Technical Advisory Group to identify and prioritize diagnostic needs for neglected tropical diseases, and to ultimately describe the minimal and ideal characteristics for new diagnostic tests (the so-called target product profiles (TPPs)). We developed two generic frameworks: one to explore and determine the required sensitivity (probability to correctly detect diseased persons) and specificity (probability to correctly detect persons free of disease), and another one to determine the corresponding samples sizes and the decision rules based on a multi-category lot quality assurance sampling (MC-LQAS) approach that accounts for imperfect tests. We applied both frameworks for monitoring and evaluation of soil-transmitted helminthiasis control programs. Our study indicates that specificity rather than sensitivity will become more important when the program approaches the endgame of elimination and that the requirements for both parameters are inversely correlated, resulting in multiple combinations of sensitivity and specificity that allow for reliable decision making. The MC-LQAS framework highlighted that improving diagnostic performance results in a smaller sample size for the same level of program decision making. In other words, the additional costs per diagnostic tests with improved diagnostic performance may be compensated by lower operational costs in the field. Based on our results we proposed the required minimal and ideal diagnostic sensitivity and specificity for diagnostic tests applied in monitoring and evaluating of soil-transmitted helminthiasis control programs.

Mathematical Model for Optimal Control of Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infection.

In this paper, we study the dynamics of soil-transmitted helminth infection. We formulate and analyse a deterministic compartmental model using nonlinear differential equations. The basic reproduction number is obtained and both disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are shown to be asymptotically stable under given threshold conditions. The model may exhibit backward bifurcation for some parameter values, and the sensitivity indices of the basic reproduction number with respect to the parameters are determined. We extend the model to include control measures for eradication of the infection from the community. Pontryagian's maximum principle is used to formulate the optimal control problem using three control strategies, namely, health education through provision of educational materials, educational messages to improve the awareness of the susceptible population, and treatment by mass drug administration that target the entire population(preschool- and school-aged children) and sanitation through provision of clean water and personal hygiene. Numerical simulations were done using MATLAB and graphical results are displayed. The cost effectiveness of the control measures were done using incremental cost-effective ratio, and results reveal that the combination of health education and sanitation is the best strategy to combat the helminth infection. Therefore, in order to completely eradicate soil-transmitted helminths, we advise investment efforts on health education and sanitation controls.

Comparison of World Health Organization and Demographic and Health Surveys data to estimate sub-national deworming coverage in pre-school aged children.

BACKGROUND: The key metric for monitoring the progress of deworming programs in controlling soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH) is national drug coverage reported to the World Health Organization (WHO). There is increased interest in utilizing geographically-disaggregated data to estimate sub-national deworming coverage and equity, as well as gender parity. The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) offer a potential source of sub-national data. This study aimed to compare deworming coverage routinely reported to WHO and estimated by DHS in pre-school aged children to inform global STH measurement and evaluation. METHODOLOGY: We compared sub-national deworming coverage in pre-school aged children reported to WHO and estimated by DHS aligned geospatially and temporally. We included data from Burundi (2016-2017), Myanmar (2015-2016), and the Philippines (2017) based on data availability. WHO provided data on the date and sub-national coverage per mass drug administration reported by Ministries of Health. DHS included maternally-reported deworming status within the past 6 months for each child surveyed. We estimated differences in sub-national deworming coverage using WHO and DHS data, and performed sensitivity analyses. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We compared data on pre-school aged children from 13 of 18 districts in Burundi (N = 6,835 in DHS), 11 of 15 districts in Myanmar (N = 1,462 in DHS) and 16 of 17 districts in the Philippines (N = 7,594 in DHS) following data exclusion. The national deworming coverages estimated by DHS in Burundi, Myanmar, and the Philippines were 75.5% (95% CI: 73.7%-77.7%), 47.0% (95% CI: 42.7%-51.3%), and 48.0% (95% CI: 46.0%-50.0%), respectively. The national deworming coverages reported by WHO in Burundi, Myanmar, and the Philippines were 80.1%, 93.6% and 75.7%, respectively. The mean absolute differences in district-level coverage reported to WHO and estimated by DHS in Burundi, Myanmar, and the Philippines were 9.5%, 41.5%, and 24.6%, respectively. Across countries, coverage reported to WHO was frequently higher than DHS estimates (32 of 40 districts). National deworming coverage from DHS estimates were similar by gender within countries. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: Agreement of deworming coverage reported to WHO and estimated by DHS data was heterogeneous across countries, varying from broadly compatible in Burundi to largely discrepant in Myanmar. DHS data could complement deworming data reported to WHO to improve data monitoring practices and serve as an independent sub-national source of coverage data.

Gender norms and mass deworming program access in Comé, Benin: A qualitative assessment of gender-associated opportunities and challenges to achieving high mass drug administration coverage.

The World Health Organization's Neglected Tropical Disease Roadmap has accelerated progress towards eliminating select neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). This momentum has catalyzed research to determine the feasibility of interrupting transmission of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) using community-wide mass drug administration (MDA). This study aims to identify potential gender-specific facilitators and barriers to accessing and participating in community-wide STH MDA, with the goal of ensuring programs are equitable and maximize the probability of interrupting STH transmission. This research was conducted prior to the launch of community-wide MDA for STH in Comé, Benin. A total of 10 focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted separately among 40 men, 38 women, and 15 community drug distributors (CDDs). Salient themes included: both men and women believe that community-wide MDA would reduce the financial burden associated with self-treatment, particularly for low income adults. Community members believe MDA should be packaged alongside water, sanitation, and other health services. Women feel past community-wide programs have been disorganized and are concerned these distributions will be similar. Women also expressed interest in increased engagement in the implementation of future community-based public health programs. Men often did not perceive themselves to be at great risk for STH infection and did not express a high demand for treatment. Finally, the barriers discussed by CDDs generally did not align with gender-specific concerns, but rather represented concerns shared by both genders. A door-to-door distribution strategy for STH MDA is preferred by women in this study, as this platform empowers women to participate as health decision makers for their family. In addition, involving women in planning and implementation of community-wide programs may help to increase treatment coverage and compliance.

An integrated health delivery platform, targeting soil-transmitted helminths (STH) and canine mediated human rabies, results in cost savings and increased breadth of treatment for STH in remote communities in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Achieving the Sustainable Development Goal of a 90% reduction in neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) by 2030 requires innovative control strategies. This proof-of-concept study examined the effectiveness of integrating control programs for two NTDs: mass drug administration (MDA) for soil-transmitted helminths in humans and mass dog rabies vaccination (MDRV). METHODS: The study was carried out in 24 Tanzanian villages. The primary goal was to demonstrate the feasibility of integrating community-wide MDA for STH and MDRV for rabies. The objectives were to investigate the popularity, participation and cost and time savings of integrated delivery, and to investigate the reach of the MDA with respect to primary school-aged children and other community members. To implement, we randomly allocated villages for delivery of MDA and MDRV (Arm A), MDA only (Arm B) or MDRV only (Arm C). RESULTS: Community support for the integrated delivery was strong (e.g. 85% of focus group discussions concluded that it would result in people getting "two for one" health treatments). A high proportion of households participated in the integrated Arm A events (81.7% MDA, 80.4% MDRV), and these proportions were similar to those in Arms B and C. These findings suggest that coverage might not be reduced when interventions are integrated. Moreover, in addition to time savings, integrated delivery resulted in a 33% lower cost per deworming dose and a 16% lower cost per rabies vaccination. The median percentage of enrolled primary school children treated by this study was 76%. However, because 37% of the primary school aged children that received deworming treatment were not enrolled in school, we hypothesize that the employed strategy could reach more school-aged children than would be reached through a solely school-based delivery strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Integrated delivery platforms for health interventions can be feasible, popular, cost and time saving. The insights gained could be applicable in areas of sub-Saharan Africa that are remote or underserved by health services. These results indicate the utility of integrated One Health delivery platforms and suggest an important role in the global campaign to reduce the burden of NTDs, especially in hard-to-reach communities. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT03667079 , retrospectively registered 11th September 2018.

The Geshiyaro Project: a study protocol for developing a scalable model of interventions for moving towards the interruption of the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths and schistosome infections in the Wolaita zone of Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: National deworming programmes rely almost exclusively on mass drug administration (MDA) to children to control morbidity caused by these parasitic infections. The provision of other interventions, consisting of preventive chemotherapy at high population level coverage together with water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) and changes in risk behaviour, should enable sustainable control of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) and schistosomiasis and ultimately interrupt transmission. METHODS/DESIGN: Two interventions will be implemented by the project: (i) community-wide biannual albendazole and annual praziquantel treatment with a target of 80-90% treatment coverage ("expanded MDA"); and (ii) provision of WaSH with behaviour change communication (BCC), within the Wolaita zone, Ethiopia. The project has three study arms: (i) expanded community-wide MDA, WaSH and BCC; (ii) expanded community-wide MDA only; and (iii) annual school-based MDA (the current National STH/schistosomiasis Control Programme). The impact of these interventions will be evaluated through prevalence mapping at baseline and endline (after four rounds of MDA), combined with annual longitudinal parasitological surveillance in defined cohorts of people to monitor trends in prevalence and reinfection throughout the project. Treatment coverage and individual compliance to treatment will be monitored by employing fingerprint biometric technology and barcoded identification cards at treatment. WaSH utilisation will be evaluated through school and household level observations and annual WaSH assessment survey. Complementary qualitative surveys will explore practices, cultural and social drivers of risk behaviours, uptake of WaSH and treatment, and assessing the impact of the BCC. DISCUSSION: The study has the potential to define an 'End Game' for STH and schistosomiasis programmes through provision of multiple interventions. Interrupting transmission of these infections would eliminate the need for long-term repeated MDA, lead to sustained health improvements in children and adults, thereby allowing health systems to focus on other disease control priorities.

The public health benefit and burden of mass drug administration programs in Vietnamese schoolchildren: Impact of mebendazole.

BACKGROUND: Mass anthelmintic drug administration is recommended in developing countries to address infection by soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH). We quantified the public health benefit of treatment with mebendazole in eight million Vietnamese children aged 5-14 years from 2006 to 2011. This was compared to the environmental impact of the pharmaceutical supply chain of mebendazole, as the resource use and emissions associated with pharmaceutical production can be associated with a public health burden, e.g. through emissions of fine particulate matter. METHODOLOGY: Through Markov modelling the disability due to STH was quantified for hookworm, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura. For each worm type, four levels of intensity of infection were included: none, light, medium and heavy. The treatment effect on patients was quantified in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). The public health burden induced by the pharmaceutical supply chain of mebendazole was quantified in DALYs through Life Cycle Assessment. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Compared to 'no treatment', the modelled results of five-year treatment averted 116,587 DALYs (68% reduction) for the three worms combined and largely driven by A. lumbricoides. The main change in DALYs occurred in the first year of treatment, after which the results stabilized. The public health burden associated with the pharmaceutical supply chain was 6 DALYs. CONCLUSIONS: The public health benefit of the Mass Drug Administration (MDA) averted substantially more DALYs than those induced by the pharmaceutical supply chain. These results were verified in a sensitivity analysis. The starting prevalence for each worm was the most sensitive model parameter. This methodology is useful for policymakers interested in a holistic approach towards the public health performance of MDA programs, enveloping both the treatment benefit received by the patient and the public health burden associated with the resource consumption and environmental emissions of the pharmaceutical production and supply chain.

Intervention strategies to reduce the burden of soil-transmitted helminths in India.

Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections continue to be a major global cause of morbidity, with a large proportion of the burden of STH infections occurring in India. In addition to direct health impacts of these infections, including anaemia and nutritional deficiencies in children, these infections also significantly impact economic development, as a result of delays in early childhood cognitive development and future income earning potential. The current World Health Organization strategy for STH is focused on morbidity control through the application of mass drug administration to all pre-school-aged and school-aged children. In India, the control of STH-related morbidity requires mobilization of significant human and financial resources, placing additional burdens on limited public resources. Infected adults and untreated children in the community act as a reservoir of infection by which treated children get rapidly reinfected. As a result, deworming programmes will need to be sustained indefinitely in the absence of other strategies to reduce reinfection, including water, hygiene and sanitation interventions (WASH). However, WASH interventions require sustained effort by the government or other agencies to build infrastructure and to promote healthy behavioural modifications, and their effectiveness is often limited by deeply entrenched cultural norms and behaviours. Novel strategies must be explored to provide a lasting solution to the problem of STH infections in India other than the indefinite provision of deworming for morbidity control.

Improved methods to capture the total societal benefits of zoonotic disease control: Demonstrating the cost-effectiveness of an integrated control programme for Taenia solium, soil transmitted helminths and classical swine fever in northern Lao PDR.

BACKGROUND: Control and elimination of zoonotic diseases requires robust information about their effect on both human and livestock health in order to enable policy formulation and the allocation of resources. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of controlling Taenia solium taeniasis/cysticercosis in both humans and pigs, and soil-transmitted helminths (STH) in humans by integrating their control to on-going human and animal health control programmes in northern Lao People's Democratic Republic. METHOD: A cross-sectional study was carried out in 49 households, focusing on the prevalence of T. solium taenias/cysticercosis and soil transmitted helminths before and after a twelve month intervention. The village data was collected using a semi-structured questionnaire through a door-to-door survey. The village data was then projected to the wider northern Lao PDR population using stochastic modelling and cost-effectiveness ratio (after aggregating the net cost to capture both human and animal health parameters) and GDP per capita as a threshold, to determine the cost-effectiveness of the integrated control of T. solium taeniasis/ cysticercosis and STH, assuming linear scaling out of the intervention. The zoonotic DALY (zDALY) approach was also used as an alternative method of estimating the cost-effectiveness ratio of controlling T. solium taeniasis/cysticercosis in humans and pigs. FINDINGS: Using cost-effectiveness analysis after aggregating the net cost and control of T. solium taeniasis/cysticercosis alone as the base case, the study found that simultaneous control of T. solium taeniasis/cysticercosis in humans and pigs, STH in humans and Classical Swine Fever (CSF) in pigs was USD 14 per DALY averted and USD 234 per zDALY averted using zDALY method hence considered highly cost-effective whereas controlling T. solium taeniasis/cysticercosis without incorporating STH and CSF was the least cost-effective (USD 3,672 per DALY averted). Additionally, the cost-effectiveness of controlling T. solium taeniasis/cysticercosis in people and pigs using zDALY as an alternative method was USD 3,662 per zDALY averted which was quite close to our findings using the aggregate net cost method. CONCLUSION: The study showed that control of T. solium taeniasis/cysticercosis alone in humans and pigs is not cost-effective in northern Lao PDR whereas control of STH is. Consequently, integrating T. solium taeniasis/cysticercosis control with other cost-effective programmes such as STH and CSF markedly improved the cost-effectiveness of the intervention. This is especially important in low resource countries where control of zoonotic neglected tropical diseases could be integrated with the human and animal health sectors to optimize use of the limited resources. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australia New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) ACTRN12614001067662.

Soil-transmitted helminth eggs assessment in wastewater in an urban area in India.

Water quality and sanitation are inextricably linked to prevalence and control of soil-transmitted helminth infections, a public health concern in resource-limited settings. India bears a large burden of disease associated with poor sanitation. Transformative onsite sanitation technologies are being developed that feature elimination of pathogens including helminth eggs in wastewater treatment. We are conducting third-party testing of multiple sanitation technology systems in Coimbatore (Tamil Nadu) India. To ensure stringent testing of the pathogen removal ability of sanitation technologies, the presence of helminth eggs in wastewater across the town of Coimbatore was assessed. Wastewater samples from existing test sites as well as desludging trucks servicing residential and non-residential septic tanks, were collected. The AmBic methodology (based on washing, sieving, sedimenting and floating) was used for helminth egg isolation. We tested 29 different source samples and found a 52% prevalence of potentially infective helminth eggs. Identification and enumeration of helminth species is reported against the septage source (private residential vs. shared toilet facility) and total solids content. Trichuris egg counts were higher than those of hookworm and Ascaris from desludging trucks, whereas hookworm egg counts were higher in fresh wastewater samples. Surprisingly, no correlation between soil transmitted helminth eggs and total solids was observed.

Assessing the feasibility of interrupting the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths through mass drug administration: The DeWorm3 cluster randomized trial protocol.

Current control strategies for soil-transmitted helminths (STH) emphasize morbidity control through mass drug administration (MDA) targeting preschool- and school-age children, women of childbearing age and adults in certain high-risk occupations such as agricultural laborers or miners. This strategy is effective at reducing morbidity in those treated but, without massive economic development, it is unlikely it will interrupt transmission. MDA will therefore need to continue indefinitely to maintain benefit. Mathematical models suggest that transmission interruption may be achievable through MDA alone, provided that all age groups are targeted with high coverage. The DeWorm3 Project will test the feasibility of interrupting STH transmission using biannual MDA targeting all age groups. Study sites (population ≥80,000) have been identified in Benin, Malawi and India. Each site will be divided into 40 clusters, to be randomized 1:1 to three years of twice-annual community-wide MDA or standard-of-care MDA, typically annual school-based deworming. Community-wide MDA will be delivered door-to-door, while standard-of-care MDA will be delivered according to national guidelines. The primary outcome is transmission interruption of the STH species present at each site, defined as weighted cluster-level prevalence ≤2% by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), 24 months after the final round of MDA. Secondary outcomes include the endline prevalence of STH, overall and by species, and the endline prevalence of STH among children under five as an indicator of incident infections. Secondary analyses will identify cluster-level factors associated with transmission interruption. Prevalence will be assessed using qPCR of stool samples collected from a random sample of cluster residents at baseline, six months after the final round of MDA and 24 months post-MDA. A smaller number of individuals in each cluster will be followed with annual sampling to monitor trends in prevalence and reinfection throughout the trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03014167.

A call to strengthen the global strategy against schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis: the time is now.

In 2001, the World Health Assembly (WHA) passed the landmark WHA 54.19 resolution for global scale-up of mass administration of anthelmintic drugs for morbidity control of schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis, which affect more than 1·5 billion of the world's poorest people. Since then, more than a decade of research and experience has yielded crucial knowledge on the control and elimination of these helminthiases. However, the global strategy has remained largely unchanged since the original 2001 WHA resolution and associated WHO guidelines on preventive chemotherapy. In this Personal View, we highlight recent advances that, taken together, support a call to revise the global strategy and guidelines for preventive chemotherapy and complementary interventions against schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis. These advances include the development of guidance that is specific to goals of morbidity control and elimination of transmission. We quantify the result of forgoing this opportunity by computing the yearly disease burden, mortality, and lost economic productivity associated with maintaining the status quo. Without change, we estimate that the population of sub-Saharan Africa will probably lose 2·3 million disability-adjusted life-years and US$3·5 billion of economic productivity every year, which is comparable to recent acute epidemics, including the 2014 Ebola and 2015 Zika epidemics. We propose that the time is now to strengthen the global strategy to address the substantial disease burden of schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis.

Diagnostic Tests to Support Late-Stage Control Programs for Schistosomiasis and Soil-Transmitted Helminthiases.

Global efforts to address schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH) include deworming programs for school-aged children that are made possible by large-scale drug donations. Decisions on these mass drug administration (MDA) programs currently rely on microscopic examination of clinical specimens to determine the presence of parasite eggs. However, microscopy-based methods are not sensitive to the low-intensity infections that characterize populations that have undergone MDA. Thus, there has been increasing recognition within the schistosomiasis and STH communities of the need for improved diagnostic tools to support late-stage control program decisions, such as when to stop or reduce MDA. Failure to adequately address the need for new diagnostics could jeopardize achievement of the 2020 London Declaration goals. In this report, we assess diagnostic needs and landscape potential solutions and determine appropriate strategies to improve diagnostic testing to support control and elimination programs. Based upon literature reviews and previous input from experts in the schistosomiasis and STH communities, we prioritized two diagnostic use cases for further exploration: to inform MDA-stopping decisions and post-MDA surveillance. To this end, PATH has refined target product profiles (TPPs) for schistosomiasis and STH diagnostics that are applicable to these use cases. We evaluated the limitations of current diagnostic methods with regards to these use cases and identified candidate biomarkers and diagnostics with potential application as new tools. Based on this analysis, there is a need to develop antigen-detecting rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) with simplified, field-deployable sample preparation for schistosomiasis. Additionally, there is a need for diagnostic tests that are more sensitive than the current methods for STH, which may include either a field-deployable molecular test or a simple, low-cost, rapid antigen-detecting test.

Soil-Transmitted Helminths: Mathematical Models of Transmission, the Impact of Mass Drug Administration and Transmission Elimination Criteria.

Infections caused by soil-transmitted helminthias (STHs) affect over a billion people worldwide, causing anaemia and having a large social and economic impact through poor educational outcomes. They are identified in the World Health Organization (WHO) 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases as a target for renewed effort to ameliorate their global public health burden through mass drug administration (MDA) and water and hygiene improvement. In this chapter, we review the underlying biology and epidemiology of the three causative intestinal nematode species that are mostly considered under the STH umbrella term. We review efforts to model the transmission cycle of these helminths in populations and the effects of preventative chemotherapy on their control and elimination. Recent modelling shows that the different epidemiological characteristics of the parasitic nematode species that make up the STH group can lead to quite distinct responses to any given form of MDA. When connected with models of treatment cost-effectiveness, these models are potentially a powerful tool for informing public policy. A number of shortcomings are identified; lack of critical types of data and poor understanding of diagnostic sensitivities hamper efforts to test and hence improve models.

RUMOURS, RIOTS AND THE REJECTION OF MASS DRUG ADMINISTRATION FOR THE TREATMENT OF SCHISTOSOMIASIS IN MOROGORO, TANZANIA.

In 2008 in Morogoro region, Tanzania, mass drug administration (MDA) to school-aged children to treat two neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) - urinary schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminths - was suspended by the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare after riots broke out in schools where drugs were being administered. This article discusses why this biomedical intervention was so vehemently rejected, including an eyewitness account. As the protest spread to the village where I was conducting fieldwork, villagers accused me of bringing medicine into the village with which to 'poison' the children and it was necessary for me to leave immediately under the protection of the Tanzanian police. The article examines the considerable differences between biomedical and local understandings of one of these diseases, urinary schistosomiasis. Such a disjuncture was fuelled further by the apparent rapidity of rolling out MDA and subsequent failures in communication between programme staff and local people. Rumours of child fatalities as well as children's fainting episodes and illnesses following treatment brought about considerable conjecture both locally and nationally that the drugs had been either faulty, counterfeit, hitherto untested on humans or part of a covert sterilization campaign. The compelling arguments by advocates of MDA for the treatment of NTDs rest on the assumption that people suffering from these diseases will be willing to swallow the medicine. However, as this article documents, this is not always the case. For treatment of NTDs to be successful it is not enough for programmes to focus on economic and biomedical aspects of treatment, rolling out 'one size fits all' programmes in resource-poor settings. It is imperative to develop a biosocial approach: to consider the local social, biological, historical, economic and political contexts in which these programmes are taking place and in which the intended recipients of treatment live their lives. If this is not done, the world's poor will continue to be neglected.

Complexities and Perplexities: A Critical Appraisal of the Evidence for Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infection-Related Morbidity.

BACKGROUND: Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) have acute and chronic manifestations, and can result in lifetime morbidity. Disease burden is difficult to quantify, yet quantitative evidence is required to justify large-scale deworming programmes. A recent Cochrane systematic review, which influences Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates for STH, has again called into question the evidence for deworming benefit on morbidity due to STH. In this narrative review, we investigate in detail what the shortfalls in evidence are. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We systematically reviewed recent literature that used direct measures to investigate morbidity from STH and we critically appraised systematic reviews, particularly the most recent Cochrane systematic review investigating deworming impact on morbidity. We included six systematic reviews and meta-analyses, 36 literature reviews, 44 experimental or observational studies, and five case series. We highlight where evidence is insufficient and where research needs to be directed to strengthen morbidity evidence, ideally to prove benefits of deworming. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Overall, the Cochrane systematic review and recent studies indicate major shortfalls in evidence for direct morbidity. However, it is questionable whether the systematic review methodology should be applied to STH due to heterogeneity of the prevalence of different species in each setting. Urgent investment in studies powered to detect direct morbidity effects due to STH is required.

Markov Model Predicts Changes in STH Prevalence during Control Activities Even with a Reduced Amount of Baseline Information.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the reduction in levels of infection during implementation of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) control programmes is important to measure their performance and to plan interventions. Markov modelling techniques have been used with some success to predict changes in STH prevalence following treatment in Viet Nam. The model is stationary and to date, the prediction has been obtained by calculating the transition probabilities between the different classes of intensity following the first year of drug distribution and assuming that these remain constant in subsequent years. However, to run this model longitudinal parasitological data (including intensity of infection) are required for two consecutive years from at least 200 individuals. Since this amount of data is not often available from STH control programmes, the possible application of the model in control programme is limited. The present study aimed to address this issue by adapting the existing Markov model to allow its application when a more limited amount of data is available and to test the predictive capacities of these simplified models. METHOD: We analysed data from field studies conducted with different combination of three parameters: (i) the frequency of drug administration; (ii) the drug distributed; and (iii) the target treatment population (entire population or school-aged children only). This analysis allowed us to define 10 sets of standard transition probabilities to be used to predict prevalence changes when only baseline data are available (simplified model 1). We also formulated three equations (one for each STH parasite) to calculate the predicted prevalence of the different classes of intensity from the total prevalence. These equations allowed us to design a simplified model (SM2) to obtain predictions when the classes of intensity at baseline were not known. To evaluate the performance of the simplified models, we collected data from the scientific literature on changes in STH prevalence during the implementation of 26 control programmes in 16 countries. Using the baseline data observed, we applied the simplified models and predicted the onward prevalence of STH infection at each time-point for which programme data were available. We then compared the output from the model with the observed data from the programme. RESULTS: The comparison between the model-predicted prevalence and the observed values demonstrated a good accuracy of the predictions. In 77% of cases the original model predicted a prevalence within five absolute percentage points from the observed figure, for the simplified model one in 69% of cases and for the simplified model two in 60% of cases. We consider that the STH Markov model described here could be an important tool for programme managers to monitor the progress of their control programmes and to select the appropriate intervention. We also developed, and made freely available online, a software tool to enable the use of the STH Markov model by personnel with limited knowledge of mathematical models.