Cost-effective analysis of hepatitis A vaccination in Kerala state, India.

Several hepatitis A outbreaks have recently been reported in Kerala state, India. To inform coverage decision of hepatitis A vaccine in Kerala, this study aimed to examine the cost-effectiveness of 1) hepatitis A vaccination among children aged 1 year and individuals aged 15 years, and 2) serological screening of individuals aged 15 years and vaccination of susceptible as compared to no vaccination or vaccination without serological screening. Both live attenuated hepatitis A vaccine and inactivated hepatitis A vaccine were considered in the analysis. A combination of decision tree and Markov models with a cycle length of one year was employed to estimate costs and benefits of different vaccination strategies. Analysis were based on both societal and payer perspectives. The lifetime costs and outcomes were discounted by 3%. Our findings indicated that all strategies were cost-saving for both societal and payer perspectives. Moreover, budget impact analysis revealed that vaccination without screening among individuals aged 15 years could save the government's budget by reducing treatment cost of hepatitis A. Our cost-effectiveness evidence supports the inclusion of hepatitis A vaccination into the vaccination program for children aged 1 year and individuals aged 15 years in Kerala state, India.

[Cost-effectiveness of universal childhood vaccination against hepatitis A in Spain: a dynamic approach]. / Coste-efectividad de la vacunación universal infantil frente a la hepatitis A en España: un enfoque dinámico.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of infant universal vaccination against hepatitis A in Spain. METHOD: Using a dynamic model and decision tree model, a cost-effectiveness analysis was performed to compare three vaccination strategies against hepatitis A: non-vaccination strategy versus universal childhood vaccination of hepatitis A with one or two doses. The perspective of the study was that of the National Health System (NHS) and a lifetime horizon was considered. Both costs and effects were discounted at 3% per year. Health outcomes were measured in terms of quality adjusted life years (QALY) and the cost-effectiveness measure used was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). In addition, deterministic sensitivity analysis by scenarios was performed. RESULTS: In the particular case of Spain, with low endemicity for hepatitis A, the difference in health outcomes between vaccination strategies (with 1 or 2 doses) and non-vaccination are practically non-existent, terms of QALY. In addition, the ICER obtained is high, exceeding the limits of willingness to pay from Spain (€22,000-25,000/QALY). The deterministic sensitivity analysis showed that the results are sensitive to the variations of the key parameters, although in no case the vaccination strategies are cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: Universal infant vaccination strategy against hepatitis A would not be a cost-effective option from the NHS perspective in Spain.

Cost-effectiveness of expanded hepatitis A vaccination among adults with diagnosed HIV, United States.

Hepatitis A virus can cause severe and prolonged illness in persons with HIV (PWH). In July 2020, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) expanded its recommendation for hepatitis A vaccination to include all PWH aged ≥1 year. We used a decision analytic model to estimate the value of vaccinating a cohort of adult PWH aged ≥20 years with diagnosed HIV in the United States using a limited societal perspective. The model compared 3 scenarios over an analytic horizon of 1 year: no vaccination, current vaccine coverage, and full vaccination. We incorporated the direct medical costs and nonmedical costs (i.e., public health costs and productivity loss). We estimated the total number of infections averted, cost to vaccinate, and incremental cost per case averted. Full implementation of the ACIP recommendation resulted in 775 to 812 fewer adult cases of hepatitis A in 1 year compared with the observed vaccination coverage. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the full vaccination scenario was $48,000 for the 2-dose single-antigen hepatitis A vaccine and $130,000 for the 3-dose combination hepatitis A and hepatitis B vaccine per case averted, compared with the observed vaccination scenario. Depending on type of vaccine, full hepatitis A vaccination of PWH could lead to ≥80% reduction in the number of cases and $48,000 to $130,000 in additional cost per case averted. Data on hepatitis A health outcomes and costs specific to PWH are needed to better understand the longer-term costs and benefits of the 2020 ACIP recommendation.

Hepatitis vaccination adherence and completion rates and factors associated with low compliance: A claims-based analysis of U.S. adults.

Poor compliance with multi-dose vaccine schedules by adults for whom hepatitis (Hep) A and B vaccines are recommended contributes to major Hep A and B disease burdens among high-risk U.S. adults. Evidence on hepatitis vaccine series adherence, completion, timeliness of completion, and factors associated with these outcomes, is limited and not readily generalizable for U.S. adults. This retrospective, observational study examined adherence, completion, its timeliness, and the impact of sociodemographic and clinical factors on these outcomes among a large, geographically representative sample of U.S. adults. We analyzed the Optum Clinformatics SES administrative claims database (1/1/2010-6/30/2020) for recipients of 2-dose (HepA, HepB2) or 3-dose (HepB3, HepAB) hepatitis vaccines. Adherence was defined as receipt of booster doses within specified assessment periods, per label-recommended schedules. Completion (receipt of all doses) was assessed at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months.The study included 356,828 adults ≥19 years old who were continuously enrolled in a medical benefit plan for one (HepB2), six (HepB3; HepAB), or 18 months (HepA) prior to and following the index date (first observed vaccine dose). Adherence and 24-month completion rates were: HepA (27.0%, 28.4%), HepB2 (32.2%, 44.8%), HepB3 (14.3%, 37.3%), HepAB, (15.3%, 33.8%). Kaplan-Meier completion curves plateaued after about 6 months for HepB2 and about 12 months for HepA, HepB3, and HepAB vaccines. Logistic regression analyses showed risk for low adherence/completion was generally associated with male gender, younger age, Black or Hispanic race/ethnicity, lower educational or household income attainment, and more comorbidities. Adherence and completion rates for all hepatitis vaccine series are low, especially for males, younger adults, those with lower socio-economic status and more comorbidities. To our knowledge, this is the largest claims-based analysis of adherence and completion rates for U.S. adults initiating all currently available HepA and HepB vaccines. Findings may inform hepatitis vaccination programming.

Cost-effectiveness of routine catch-up hepatitis a vaccination in the United States: Dynamic transmission modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Despite routine vaccination of children against hepatitis A (HepA), a large segment of the United States population remains unvaccinated, imposing a risk of hepatitis A virus (HAV) to adolescents and adults. In July of 2020, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommended that all children and adolescents aged 2-18 years who have not previously received a HepA vaccine be vaccinated. We evaluated the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of this HepA catch-up vaccination strategy. METHODS: We used a dynamic transmission model to compare adding a HepA catch-up vaccination of persons age 2-18 years to a routine vaccination of children 12-23 months of age with routine vaccination only in the United States. The model included various health compartments: maternal antibodies, susceptible, exposed, asymptomatic infectious, symptomatic infectious (outpatient, hospitalized, liver transplant, post- liver transplant, death), recovered, and vaccinated with and without immunity. Using a 3% annual discount rate, we estimated the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained from a societal perspective over a 100-year time horizon. All costs were converted into 2020 US dollars. FINDINGS: Compared with the routine vaccination policy at 12-23 months of age over 100 years, the catch-up program for unvaccinated children and adolescents aged 2-18 years, prevented 70,072 additional symptomatic infections, 51,391 outpatient visits, 16,575 hospitalizations, and 413 deaths. The catch-up vaccination strategy was cost-saving when compared with the routine vaccination strategy. In scenario analysis allowing administering a second dose to partially vaccinated children, the cost-effectiveness of was not favorable at a higher vaccination coverage ($196,701/QALY at 5% and $476,241/QALY at 50%). INTERPRETATION: HepA catch-up vaccination in the United States is expected to reduce HepA morbidity and mortality and save cost. The catch-up program would be optimized when focusing on unvaccinated children and adolescents and maximizing their first dose coverage.

The global trends and regional differences in incidence and mortality of hepatitis A from 1990 to 2019 and implications for its prevention.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Despite decades of improved sanitation and hygiene measures and vaccine introduction, hepatitis A has been spread through numerous outbreaks globally. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to quantify hepatitis A burden at the global, regional and national levels. METHODS: Annual incident cases, deaths, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) of hepatitis A between 1990 and 2019 were derived from the GBD study 2019. Percentage changes of cases and deaths, and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) of ASIRs and ASMRs were calculated to quantify their temporal trends. RESULTS: Global hepatitis A incident cases increased by 13.90% from 139.54 million in 1990 to 158.94 million in 2019. ASIR of hepatitis A remained stable (EAPC = 0.00, 95% CI -0.01 to 0.01), whereas ASMR decreased (EAPC = -4.63, 95% CI -4.94 to -4.32) between 1990 and 2019. ASIR increased in low (EAPC = 0.09, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.14) and low-middle (EAPC = 0.04, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.06) socio-demographic index (SDI) regions. For GBD regions, the most significant increases of ASIR were detected in high-income Asia Pacific (EAPC = 0.53, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.66), Oceania (EAPC = 0.31, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.36), and Australasia (EAPC = 0.28, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.44). EAPC of ASIR was positively associated with SDI value in countries and territories with SDI value ≥ 0.7 (ρ = -0.310, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: There is an unfavorable trend that hepatitis A is still pending in hyperendemic regions and is emerging in low endemic regions. These highlight the need of targeted and specific strategies to eliminate hepatitis A, such as sanitation measures and a comprehensive plan for surveillance and vaccination against hepatitis A.

Hepatitis A outbreak among MSM in Berlin due to low vaccination coverage: Epidemiology, management, and successful interventions.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the characteristics of a large hepatitis A virus (HAV) outbreak among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Berlin and to assess the impact of measures implemented. METHODS: Cases of laboratory-confirmed, symptomatic HAV infection notified in Berlin, Germany between August 2016 and February 2018 were analysed using routine and enhanced surveillance data including genotyping results. Several studies involving different groups of participants were conducted to further investigate the outbreak, including surveys on knowledge and practices of HAV vaccination among physicians and vaccination coverage and determinants of vaccination status among MSM. The measures implemented were categorized by target group in a Gantt chart. To assess their impact, health insurance data on HAV vaccination uptake were analysed, comparing Berlin and other federal states. RESULTS: During the outbreak period, a total of 222 cases were reported (of which 91 were sequence-confirmed), with a peak in case numbers in January 2017. Physicians were aware of the existing vaccination recommendations, but vaccination coverage among 756 MSM was low, with 32.7% being completely vaccinated and 17.3% being incompletely vaccinated before 2017. HAV vaccination before 2017 was associated with being born in Germany (odds ratio 2.36) and HIV-positive (odds ratio 1.80). HAV monovalent vaccination uptake increased by 164% from 2016 to 2017 among males in Berlin, compared to 7% in other federal states. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple measures targeting the MSM community, physicians, and public health to increase HAV vaccination uptake were successfully implemented. To prevent future HAV outbreaks, we recommend monitoring vaccination coverage among MSM, promoting awareness of existing recommendations among physicians, and ensuring access for foreign-born and young MSM.

Hepatitis A Hospitalization Costs, United States, 2017.

The United States is in the midst of unprecedented person-to-person hepatitis A outbreaks. By using Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project data, we estimated the average costs per hepatitis A-related hospitalization in 2017. These estimates can guide investment in outbreak prevention efforts to stop the spread of this vaccine-preventable disease.

Seroepidemiology of hepatitis viruses, measles, mumps, rubella and varicella among healthcare workers and students: Should we screen before vaccination?

BACKGROUND: Health care workers (HCWs) and students are at increased risk for blood borne infections and vaccine preventable diseases (VPDs). The aim of this study was to determine the seroprevalence of antibodies against measles, rubella, mumps, varicella zoster virus (VZV), hepatitis A and B viruses among HCWs and students and to determine whether there are differences according to gender and age group. METHODS: Information about characteristics of the 1053 participants, history of disease and vaccination status were collected using a structured questionnaire. Serum samples were tested for antibodies by commercial immunoenzymatic assays. RESULTS: Seropositivity rates were 57.1% for measles, 74% for mumps, 96.3% for rubella, 93.7% for VZV, 33.9% for hepatitis A virus and 92.2% for hepatitis B virus. Susceptibility rates among participants 18-26, 27-38 and >38 years of age were statistically significant for measles (46%, 18.6% and 0%; p < 0.001) and mumps (27.1%, 12.9% and 21.4%; p < 0.05), respectively. CONCLUSION: Low seropositivity rates for measles, mumps and HAV are important findings. For other diseases other than VZV, it is thought that vaccination without pre-screening is more appropriate. Healthcare institutions should have policies for screening and vaccination of their staff and students.

Immunization Against Hepatitis A in Migrant Children: Three Vaccination Strategies, A Retrospective Study.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis A is endemic in many countries. Swiss guidelines recommend vaccinating patients native from endemic areas. In Geneva's Children's hospital, migrant children are screened and vaccinated if seronegative. Because hepatitis A's prevalence is decreasing worldwide, more children are seronegative at arrival, highlighting the need for immunization in medical centers and refugee camps and questioning the benefits of systematic serology. Other Swiss hospitals vaccinate regardless of serostatus. This study's aim is to assess migrant children's immunity according to origin and age, and the cost-effectiveness of different immunization strategies. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 329 children's serostatus (1-16 years of age) between 2012 and 2015, using enzyme-linked fluorescent assay method. Serology and vaccine costs were based on local prices. Groups were compared with χ test and the age-seropositivity relationship was studied with linear regression. RESULTS: The predominant regions were the Eastern Mediterranean and European Regions with mostly negative serologies (71% and 83%) and the African Region with mostly positive serologies (79%). Immunity varied depending on birth country. Regardless of region, seropositivity increased with age (P < 0.001). The most cost-effective vaccination strategy was an individualized approach based on age and origin, reducing costs by 2% compared with serology-guided immunization and by 17% compared with systematic vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Many migrant children >5 years old are seronegative and at risk of clinical infection. They need to be immunized. New guidelines according to age and origin should be defined to reduce immunization costs. We recommend systematic vaccination for patients <5 years old or native from low endemicity areas (≤25.7% of seropositivity). For the others, we propose serology-based vaccination.

Cost-effectiveness of Hepatitis A vaccination in a developed and developing country.

PURPOSE: Hepatitis A is a prevalent disease that is largely preventable by vaccine usage. The vaccine for this illness is highly underused in most regions. In an attempt to find the strategies that are most beneficial in regard to quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and cost in current environments, the purpose of this paper is to conduct cost-effectiveness analyses to investigate vaccination strategies in a more economically developed country (MEDC), generally known as a "developed" area: the USA, and a less economically developed country (LEDC), generally known as a "developing" area: the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: This study used a dynamic transmission model for comparative effectiveness analyses. The model ran two different scenarios. The two regions studied have different policies and strategies for Hepatitis A vaccination currently, and also used different strategies in 2009. In the USA, a universal vaccination policy was modeled, along with a scenario in which it was removed. In Rio de Janeiro, a no vaccination policy was modeled, along with a scenario in which a universal vaccination policy was effected. FINDINGS: The comparison of resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratio values to accepted threshold values showed universal vaccination to be cost-effective in both the USA and Rio de Janeiro as compared to no vaccination. When episode and vaccination costs and vaccination efficacy were varied, this still remained true. Universal vaccination was found to result in lower incidence of Hepatitis A in both the USA and Rio de Janeiro. Over the twenty-year time horizon, universal vaccination is projected to prevent 506,945 cases of symptomatic Hepatitis A in the USA and 42,318 cases of Hepatitis A in Rio de Janeiro. Other benefits include a projected increase in cumulative QALYs through the use of universal vaccination. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: This analysis showed universal vaccination to be cost-effective as compared to no vaccination, and portions of the study's approach had not previously been applied in tandem to investigate Hepatitis A interventions. The results may help foster higher compliance rates for Hepatitis A vaccination and even greater per-person economic benefits of universal vaccination, particularly in the USA. The purpose of this study is also to encourage elevated levels of surveillance on age of infection in developing regions and consistent reevaluation utilizing dynamic transmission models in both the USA and Brazil, as well as other rapidly developing regions, in order to prevent future epidemics and costs associated with the disease.

Hepatitis A Virus-related Pediatric Liver Disease Burden and its Significance in the Indian Subcontinent.

OBJECTIVE: To study the Hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection-related pediatric liver disease burden. METHODS: Hospital records of 431 children (age <18 y) diagnosed to be suffering from acute HAV infection during 2011 to 2018 were extracted and analyzed. Additionally, a seroprevalence study was done on 2599 participants (696 children and 1903 adults). RESULTS: HAV infection accounted for about half (48.6% of acute hepatitis and 46.5% (92/198) of acute liver failure cases) of all acute onset icteric illness, with significant morbidity and mortality. As per seroprevalence data, 16.2% of children between 10-18 years of age, and 10.3% of adults aged 18-30 years remained susceptible to HAV infection. CONCLUSIONS: HAV infection is the major contributor the overall pediatric liver disease burden. A significant proportion of subjects remain susceptible to HAV infection even after 10 years of age. Population-based studies are required to further delineate the epidemiology of HAV infection in India for deciding introduction of HAV vaccine in the national immunization schedule.

Perspectives on Acute Hepatitis A Control in Korea.

Until 1995, the incidence of symptomatic acute hepatitis A was minimal and there were no cases of national outbreak in Korea. However, there was a nationwide outbreak of hepatitis A that peaked in 2009. In 2019, a total of 10,083 cases of acute hepatitis A were reported for seven months of the year according to the Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention. This may be attributed to the proportion of susceptible subjects in the Korean population, as about 10 years have passed since herd immunity was induced by the epidemic occurring during the late 2000s. Recent studies have shown that the rate of seropositivity for anti-hepatitis A virus antibodies (anti-HAV) is the lowest in adults in their 20s and has not changed much over the past 10 years, and seropositivity of anti-HAV in adults in their 30s has continued to decline from 69.6% in 2005 to 32.4% in 2014. Most young adults who have not yet experienced hepatitis A and are not vaccinated are vulnerable to hepatitis A infection. This year's epidemic of hepatitis A is a predictable outcome for vulnerable populations. Therefore, effective acute hepatitis A control and prevention strategies are needed, particularly for those in their 20s and 30s.

Economic evaluation of a publicly funded hepatitis A travel vaccination program in Ontario, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis A virus (HAV) causes acute liver infection and is spread through the fecal-oral route. Travel to countries in HAV-endemic regions (e.g., Asia and Latin America) is a well-described risk factor for infection. Currently, Ontario publicly funds hepatitis A vaccination for some populations at high risk of HAV infection but not for all travellers to endemic countries. The objective of this study was to determine the cost-effectiveness of expanding publicly funded HAV vaccination to people planning travel to HAV-endemic regions, from the Ontario healthcare payer perspective. METHODS: We conducted a cost-utility analysis comparing an expanded high-risk publicly-funded hepatitis A vaccination program including funded vaccine for travellers to endemic regions to the current high risk program in Ontario. A Markov state transition model was developed, including six possible health states. Model parameters were informed through targeted literature searches and included hepatitis A disease probabilities, utilities associated with health states, health system expenditures, and vaccine costs. Future costs and health outcomes were discounted at 1.5%. Primary outcomes included cost, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) over a lifetime time horizon. We conducted one-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: The expanded high risk HAV vaccine program provided few incremental health gains in the travel population (mean 0.000037 QALYs/person), at an incremental cost of $124.31. The ICER of the expanded program compared to status quo is $3,391,504/QALY gained. The conclusion of the model was robust to changes in key parameters across reasonable ranges. CONCLUSIONS: The expanded vaccination program substantially exceeds commonly accepted cost-effectiveness thresholds. Further research concerning possible cost-effective implementation of high-risk travel hepatitis A vaccination should focus on a more integrated understanding of the risk of acquiring hepatitis A during travel to endemic regions (e.g., purpose, length of stay).

Clinical experience with the inactivated hepatitis A vaccine, Avaxim 80U Pediatric.

INTRODUCTION: Hepatitis A, caused by hepatitis A virus (HAV), is primarily transmitted via the fecal/oral route either through ingestion of contaminated food and water or through direct contact with an infectious person. Prevalence of hepatitis A is strongly correlated with socioeconomic factors, decreasing with increased socio-economic development, access to clean water and sanitation. Vaccination against HAV should be part of a comprehensive plan for the prevention and control of viral hepatitis, either as part of regular childhood immunization programs or with other recommended vaccines for travelers. Areas covered: We present here evidence for the immunogenicity and safety of an inactivated HAV pediatric vaccine (Avaxim® 80U Pediatric, Sanofi Pasteur), indicated for use in children aged 12 months to 15 years. Data evaluated are from trials undertaken during the clinical development of this vaccine, a systematic literature review and post-market pharmacovigilance. Expert opinion: The pediatric HAV vaccine is highly immunogenic and generates long-lasting protection against hepatitis A disease in children. The safety and immunogenicity data presented in this review suggest that the pediatric HAV vaccine is a valuable option in the prevention of HAV infection in children in many areas of the world where the disease remains a healthcare issue.

Changes to country-specific hepatitis A travel vaccination recommendation for UK travellers in 2017-responding to a vaccine shortage in the national context.

OBJECTIVES: A routine review of hepatitis A travel vaccination recommendations was brought forward in June 2017 due to hepatitis A vaccine shortages and a concurrent outbreak in men who have sex with men (MSM). There were three objectives: first, to document the review process for changing the recommendations for the UK travellers in June 2017. Second, to study the impact of these changes on prescribing in general practice in 2017 compared with the previous 5 years. Third, to study any changes in hepatitis A notifications in June-October 2017 compared with the previous 5 years. STUDY DESIGN: This is an observational study. METHODS: Travel vaccination recommendations for countries with either low-risk (<20%) or high-risk (>90%) status according to child hepatitis A seroprevalence were not changed. A total of 67 intermediate-risk countries with existing recommendations for most travellers and with new data on rural sanitation levels were shortlisted for the analysis. Data on child hepatitis A seroprevalence, country income status, access to sanitation in rural areas and traveller volumes were obtained. Information about the vaccine supply was obtained from Public Health England. Changes to the existing classification were made through expert consensus, based on countries' hepatitis A seroprevalence, sanitation levels, level of income, volume of travel and hepatitis A traveller cases. Data on the number of combined and monovalent hepatitis A-containing vaccines prescribed in England, 2012-2017, were obtained from the National Health Service Business Service Authorities. The number of monthly prescriptions for January-September 2017 was compared with the mean number of prescriptions for the same month in the previous 5 years (t-test, α = 5%, df = 4). The number of hepatitis A cases notified in June-October 2017 not related to the MSM outbreak was compared with the number of notifications in the same months in previous years. RESULTS: A total of 36 countries were downgraded based on good access (80+% of population) to sanitation in rural areas and the intermediate-risk status in terms of child hepatitis A seroprevalence. For these countries, vaccination would only be recommended to travellers staying long term, visiting friends and relatives or staying in areas without good sanitation. There was a significant decline in hepatitis A vaccine prescriptions in June-September 2017, and there was no increase in the number of notifications. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatitis A vaccination recommendations for travel were revised in 2017 following a systematic approach to maintain continuity of supply after a hepatitis A vaccine shortage and increased hepatitis A vaccine demand related to a large outbreak. Improved access to good sanitation in rural areas and low seroprevalence estimates among children have led to 36 countries to no longer require vaccination for most travellers. These changes do not seem to have impacted on hepatitis A notifications in England, although further research will be needed to quantify the impact more precisely.

Epidemiological shift of hepatitis A in EAGLE countries - a projection.

PURPOSE: Many world regions are developing quickly and experiencing increasing levels of sanitation, causing an epidemiological shift of hepatitis A in these areas. The shift occurs when children avoid being infected with the disease until a later age due to cleaner water sources, food, and hygiene practices in their environment; but if they are infected at later age, the disease is much more severe and lost productivity costs are higher. The purpose of this paper is to examine what could occur if an epidemiological shift of the disease continues in these regions, and what type of future burden hepatitis A may have in a hypothetical rapidly developing country. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: Initially, annual hepatitis A mortality was regressed on the Human Development Index (HDI) for each country classified as an emerging and growth-leading economy (EAGLE) to provide an overview of how economic development and hepatitis A mortality related. Data from the various EAGLE countries were also fit to a model of hepatitis A mortality rates in relation to HDI, which were both weighted by each country's 1995-2010 population of available data, in order to create a model for a hypothetical emerging market country. A second regression model was fit for the weighted average annual hepatitis A mortality rate of all EAGLE countries from the years 1995 to 2010. Additionally, hepatitis A mortality rate was regressed on year. FINDINGS: Regression results show a constant decline of mortality as HDI increased. For each increase of one in HDI value in this hypothetical country, mortality rate declined by 2.3016 deaths per 100,000 people. The hypothetical country showed the HDI value increasing by 0.0073 each year. Also, results displayed a decrease in hepatitis A mortality rate of 0.0168 per 100,000 people per year. Finally, the mortality rate for hepatitis A in this hypothetical country is projected to be down to 0.11299 deaths per 100,000 people by 2030 and its economic status will fall just below the HDI criteria for a developed country by 2025. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: The hypothetical country as a prototype model was created from the results of regressed data from EAGLE countries. It is aimed to display an example of the health and economic changes occurring in these rapidly developing regions in order to help understand potential hepatitis A trends, while underscoring the importance of informed and regular policy updates in the coming years. The author believes this regression provides insight into the patterns of hepatitis A mortality and HDI as these EAGLE countries undergo rapid development.

High prevalence of anti-hepatitis A IgG in a cohort of UK HIV-negative men who have sex with men: implications for local hepatitis A vaccine policy.

BASHH guidelines recommend that 'the hepatitis A virus total antibody test can be offered to at-risk patients whose immune status is unknown … depending on local funding arrangements'. We sought to measure the local prevalence of anti-hepatitis A (HAV) IgG in HIV-negative men who have sex with men (MSM), to inform the utility of pre-vaccination screening. We assessed the prevalence of anti-HAV IgG in HIV-negative MSM who attended sexual health services in County Durham and Darlington, UK, from March to August 2017. Data were extracted from electronic patient records and analysed in Excel. Our study was granted local Caldicott approval. Seventy four per cent of 244 HIV-negative MSM who attended for review were screened. Anti-HAV IgG was detected in 42% who did not report definite previous infection or vaccination; not detected in 57.4%; and was equivocal in 0.6%. Vaccine was administered to 48% of eligible patients. The estimated financial costs of universal vaccination of MSM (£4235.40) and pre-vaccination screening with vaccination of susceptible patients (£4188.13) are similar. Pre-vaccination screening and vaccination of susceptible patients does not save resources compared to a policy of universal vaccination of MSM in our setting. Universal vaccination of MSM attending genitourinary medicine clinics may improve vaccine uptake.

Public health impact and cost effectiveness of routine childhood vaccination for hepatitis a in Jordan: a dynamic model approach.

BACKGROUND: As the socioeconomic conditions in Jordan have improved over recent decades the disease and economic burden of Hepatitis A has increased. The purpose of this study is to assess the potential health and economic impact of a two-dose hepatitis A vaccine program covering one-year old children in Jordan. METHODS: We adapted an age-structured population model of hepatitis A transmission dynamics to project the epidemiologic and economic impact of vaccinating one-year old children for 50 years in Jordan. The epidemiologic model was calibrated using local data on hepatitis A in Jordan. These data included seroprevalence and incidence data from the Jordan Ministry of Health as well as hospitalization data from King Abdullah University Hospital in Irbid, Jordan. We assumed 90% of all children would be vaccinated with the two-dose regimen by two years of age. The economic evaluation adopted a societal perspective and measured benefits using the quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). RESULTS: The modeled vaccination program reduced the incidence of hepatitis A in Jordan by 99%, 50 years after its introduction. The model projected 4.26 million avoided hepatitis A infections, 1.42 million outpatient visits, 22,475 hospitalizations, 508 fulminant cases, 95 liver transplants, and 76 deaths over a 50 year time horizon. In addition, we found, over a 50 year time horizon, the vaccination program would gain 37,502 QALYs and save over $42.6 million in total costs. The vaccination program became cost-saving within 6 years of its introduction and was highly cost-effective during the first 5 years. CONCLUSION: A vaccination program covering one-year old children is projected to be a cost-saving intervention that will significantly reduce the public health and economic burden of hepatitis A in Jordan.