Infectious diseases epidemiology, quantitative methodology, and clinical research in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic: Perspective from a European country.

Starting from historic reflections, the current SARS-CoV-2 induced COVID-19 pandemic is examined from various perspectives, in terms of what it implies for the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, the modeling and monitoring of the epidemic, the development of early-warning systems, the study of mortality, prevalence estimation, diagnostic and serological testing, vaccine development, and ultimately clinical trials. Emphasis is placed on how the pandemic had led to unprecedented speed in methodological and clinical development, the pitfalls thereof, but also the opportunities that it engenders for national and international collaboration, and how it has simplified and sped up procedures. We also study the impact of the pandemic on clinical trials in other indications. We note that it has placed biostatistics, epidemiology, virology, infectiology, and vaccinology, and related fields in the spotlight in an unprecedented way, implying great opportunities, but also the need to communicate effectively, often amidst controversy.

Combining serological and contact data to derive target immunity levels for achieving and maintaining measles elimination.

BACKGROUND: Vaccination has reduced the global incidence of measles to the lowest rates in history. However, local interruption of measles virus transmission requires sustained high levels of population immunity that can be challenging to achieve and maintain. The herd immunity threshold for measles is typically stipulated at 90-95%. This figure does not easily translate into age-specific immunity levels required to interrupt transmission. Previous estimates of such levels were based on speculative contact patterns based on historical data from high-income countries. The aim of this study was to determine age-specific immunity levels that would ensure elimination of measles when taking into account empirically observed contact patterns. METHODS: We combined estimated immunity levels from serological data in 17 countries with studies of age-specific mixing patterns to derive contact-adjusted immunity levels. We then compared these to case data from the 10 years following the seroprevalence studies to establish a contact-adjusted immunity threshold for elimination. We lastly combined a range of hypothetical immunity profiles with contact data from a wide range of socioeconomic and demographic settings to determine whether they would be sufficient for elimination. RESULTS: We found that contact-adjusted immunity levels were able to predict whether countries would experience outbreaks in the decade following the serological studies in about 70% of countries. The corresponding threshold level of contact-adjusted immunity was found to be 93%, corresponding to an average basic reproduction number of approximately 14. Testing different scenarios of immunity with this threshold level using contact studies from around the world, we found that 95% immunity would have to be achieved by the age of five and maintained across older age groups to guarantee elimination. This reflects a greater level of immunity required in 5-9-year-olds than established previously. CONCLUSIONS: The immunity levels we found necessary for measles elimination are higher than previous guidance. The importance of achieving high immunity levels in 5-9-year-olds presents both a challenge and an opportunity. While such high levels can be difficult to achieve, school entry provides an opportunity to ensure sufficient vaccination coverage. Combined with observations of contact patterns, further national and sub-national serological studies could serve to highlight key gaps in immunity that need to be filled in order to achieve national and regional measles elimination.

Fitness costs associated with mounting a social immune response.

Social immune systems comprise immune defences mounted by individuals for the benefit of others (sensuCotter & Kilner 2010a). Just as with other forms of immunity, mounting a social immune response is expected to be costly but so far these fitness costs are unknown. We measured the costs of social immunity in a sub-social burying beetle, a species in which two or more adults defend a carrion breeding resource for their young by smearing the flesh with antibacterial anal exudates. Our experiments on widowed females reveal that a bacterial challenge to the breeding resource upregulates the antibacterial activity of a female's exudates, and this subsequently reduces her lifetime reproductive success. We suggest that the costliness of social immunity is a source of evolutionary conflict between breeding adults on a carcass, and that the phoretic communities that the beetles transport between carrion may assist the beetle by offsetting these costs.

Cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine: evidence from the first 5 years of use in the United States incorporating herd effects.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) has been in routine use in the United States for 5 years. Prior U.S. cost-effectiveness analyses have not taken into account the effect of the vaccine on nonvaccinated persons. METHODS: We revised a previously published model to simulate the effects of PCV on children vaccinated between 2000 and 2004, and to incorporate the effect of the vaccine in reducing invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in nonvaccinated persons during those years. Data from the Active Bacterial Core Surveillance of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2000-2004) were used to estimate changes in the burden of IPD in nonvaccinated adults since the introduction of PCV (compared with the baseline years 1997-1999). Results combined the simulated effects of the vaccine on the vaccinated and nonvaccinated populations. RESULTS: Before incorporating herd effects in the model, the PCV was estimated to have averted 38,000 cases of IPD during its first 5 years of use at a cost of dollar 112,000 per life-year saved. After incorporating the reductions in IPD for nonvaccinated individuals, the vaccine averted 109,000 cases of IPD at a cost of dollar 7500 per life-year saved. When the herd effect was assumed to be half that of the base case, the cost per life-year saved was dollar 18,000. CONCLUSIONS: IPD herd effects in the nonvaccinated population substantially reduce the cost, and substantially improve the cost-effectiveness, of PCV. The cost-effectiveness of PCV in actual use has been more favorable than predicted by estimates created before the vaccine was licensed.