Value of the Barthel scale in prognostic prediction for patients with cerebral infarction.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to evaluate the ADL(activity of daily living) of patients with acute cerebral infarction through BI scoring, in order to observe its predictive value in the prognosis of these patients. METHODS: According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, patients with acute anterior circulation cerebral infarction were included in the present study. Then, the BI scoring was analyzed through five grades, in order to further investigate the dose-response relationship between BI scoring and mortality risk in patients with cerebral infarction. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for BI-scored patients were drawn, and the predictive authenticity of the Barthel scale in prognostic prediction for patients with cerebral infarction was estimated. RESULTS: The difference in BI scores between the survival group and death group were statistically significant (t = 10.029, P < 0.05), in which the score was lower in the death group than in the survival group. According to the linear trend ×2-test, the decrease in BI score indicates an increase in mortality risk in patients with cerebral infarction. The area under the curve (AUC) of the ROC curve was 0.794 with a P-value of < 0.05. CONCLUSION: BI scoring is a highly valuable scoring system for the prognostic prediction of patients with acute cerebral infarction.

Individual and Regional-level Factors Contributing to Variation in Length of Stay After Cerebral Infarction in Six European Countries.

Using patient-level data for cerebral infarction cases in 2007, gathered from Finland, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Scotland and Sweden, we studied the variation in risk-adjusted length of stay (LoS) of acute hospital care and 1-year mortality, both within and between countries. In addition, we analysed the variance of LoS and associations of selected regional-level factors with LoS and 1-year mortality after cerebral infarction. The data show that LoS distributions are surprisingly different across countries and that there is significant deviation in the risk-adjusted regional-level LoS in all of the countries studied. We used negative binomial regression to model the individual-level LoS, and random intercept models and ordinary least squares regression for the regional-level analysis of risk-adjusted LoS, variance of LoS, 1-year risk-adjusted mortality and crude mortality for a period of 31-365 days. The observed variations between regions and countries in both LoS and mortality were not fully explained by either patient-level or regional-level factors. The results indicate that there may exist potential for efficiency gains in acute hospital care of cerebral infarction and that healthcare managers could learn from best practices.

Optimum timing of revascularization for emergent admissions of carotid artery stenosis with infarction.

OBJECTIVE: There is debate concerning the optimum timing of revascularization for emergent admissions of carotid artery stenosis with infarction. Our intent was to stratify clinical and economic outcomes based on the timing of revascularization. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2002 to 2011. Patients were included if they were admitted non-electively with a primary diagnosis of carotid artery stenosis with infarction and subsequently treated with revascularization. Cases were stratified into four groups based upon the timing of revascularization: (1) within 48-h of admission, (2) between 48-h and day four of hospitalization, (3) between days five and seven, and (4) during the second week of admission. RESULTS: 27,839 cases met our inclusion criteria. The lowest odds of iatrogenic complications (OR=0.643, P<.001) and mortality (OR=0.631, P<.001) coincided with revascularization between days five and seven of hospitalization. Treatment with carotid artery stenting (CAS) and administration of recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rtPA) increased the odds of complications and death. With regards to economic measures, administration of rtPA and utilization of CAS drove cost and length-of-stay up, while lower co-morbidity burden and earlier time to revascularization drove both measures down. CONCLUSIONS: The present study suggests that the optimum timing of revascularization may be near the end of the first week of hospitalization following acute stroke. However, this study must be cautioned with limitations including its inability to control for critical disease specific variables including symptom severity and degree of stenosis. Prospective examination seems warranted.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the neuroprotective agent edaravone for noncardioembolic cerebral infarction.

BACKGROUND: The free radical scavenger edaravone has been reported useful for improvement in activities of daily living and for prevention of recurrent stroke in the edaravone versus sodium ozagrel in acute noncardioembolic ischemic stroke (EDO) trial. The aim of this report was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of edaravone compared to the intravenous antiplatelet drug ozagrel sodium (ozagrel) for noncardioembolic stroke (non-CES) based on the EDO trial data. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using the Markov model, which also incorporated the long-term course after the acute stage of non-CES. From the perspective of a health care payer, direct medical costs and nursing care costs were taken into account in the cost analysis. The quality-adjusted life year (QALY) served as an indicator of effectiveness. Simulation at 5 and 10 years after the onset of non-CES was carried out. The study involved 68-year-old patients with non-CES, selected against the EDO trial subject selection criteria. A 14-day treatment with edaravone 60 mg/day or ozagrel 160 mg/day was assumed as acute treatment for non-CES. RESULTS: The use of edaravone was associated with a reduction in total costs (0.51 million yen [$6,374] at 5 years and 0.64 million yen [$8,039]) at 10 years after the onset of non-CES) and improvement in QALYs (0.23 at 5 years and 0.38 at 10 years). Compared to ozagrel therapy, edaravone therapy was a cost-saving strategy for treating non-CES. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to ozagrel therapy, edaravone therapy for non-CES is not only useful from a clinical viewpoint, but also valuable from a socioeconomic perspective.

Success of carotid endarterectomy in veterans: high medical risk does not equate with high surgical risk.

BACKGROUND: The safety and efficacy of carotid endarterectomy (CEA) in stroke prevention has been well documented. But "high-risk" patients have traditionally been excluded from these studies and may be offered alternate therapies. We examined the safety of CEA in veterans, a medically high-risk group with multiple comorbidities. STUDY DESIGN: The records of all patients having CEAs performed between 1995 and 1999 in the Connecticut Veterans Affairs (VA) hospital were reviewed. Survival and freedom from stroke were determined using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. The effects of risk factors on outcomes were analyzed with Cox regression. RESULTS: There were 128 CEAs performed in 120 patients, with a mean followup of 8.5 years. Most patients were symptomatic preoperatively and had a high incidence of hypertension (83%), coronary artery disease (64%), diabetes (37%), and pulmonary disease (22%). Incidences of perioperative (30-day) mortality (0.8%), stroke (1.6%), and myocardial infarction (0.8%) were low. Survival rates at 8.9 and 12 years were 50% and 13%, respectively, with 90% patient followup. Freedom from ipsilateral stroke was 90% at 12 years. Age (hazards ratio [HR] 1.1, p=0.004), hypertension (HR 2.6, p=0.04), and elevated creatinine (HR 3.7, p=0.001) were significant risk factors for mortality. Age (HR 0.8, p=0.07) and diastolic blood pressure (HR 1.2, p=0.06) were predictive of ipsilateral stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Despite poor health and symptomatic presentation, patients treated with CEA achieved excellent perioperative outcomes and were protected from stroke for the remainder of their lives. Multiple medical comorbidities should not be used as exclusion criteria for CEA.

CT angiography is cost-effective for confirmation of internal carotid artery occlusions.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: While sensitive to internal carotid artery (ICA) occlusion, carotid ultrasound can produce false-positive results. CT angiography (CTA) has a high specificity for ICA occlusion and is safer and cheaper than catheter angiography, although less accurate. We determined the cost-effectiveness of CTA versus catheter angiography for confirming an ICA occlusion first suggested by carotid ultrasound. METHODS: A Markov decision-analytic model was constructed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of CTA compared with catheter angiography in a hypothetical cohort of symptomatic patients with a screening examination consistent with an ICA occlusion. Costs in 2004 dollars were estimated from Medicare reimbursement. Effectiveness was measured in quality-adjusted life years. RESULTS: The 2-year cost in the CTA scenario was $9,178, and for catheter angiography, $11,531, consistent with a $2,353 cost-savings per person for CTA. CTA resulted in accrual of 1.83 quality-adjusted life years while catheter angiography resulted in 1.82 quality-adjusted life years. CTA was less costly and marginally more effective than catheter angiography. In sensitivity analyses, when CTA sensitivity and specificity were allowed to vary across a plausible range, CTA remained cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: After screening examination has suggested an ICA occlusion, confirmatory testing with CTA provides similar effectiveness to catheter angiography and is less costly.

[Assessment of the number of cardio- and cerebrovascular events due to rofecoxib (Vioxx) in Germany between 2001 and 2004]. / Schätzung der unter Rofecoxib (Vioxx) in Deutschland in den Jahren 2001-2004 aufgetretenen kardio- und zerebrovaskulären Ereignisse.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: After the recall of rofecoxib (Vioxx), there was repeated national and international discussion on the potential number of patients harmed by causally related cardio- and cerebrovascular events. In individual cases, it cannot be determined whether a myocardial infarction or stroke that occurred during rofecoxib therapy was actually directly caused by this drug. On the basis of the results of the Vioxx Gastrointestinal Outcomes Research (VIGOR) trial and German prescription data provided by the Scientific Institute of the Local Health Care Fund, the authors therefore conservatively estimated the number of patients harmed by rofecoxib in Germany between 2001 and 2004. METHODS: Under simplifying assumptions that, as in the VIGOR study, the risk of rofecoxib or naproxen therapy can be described by a Cox model with exponentially distributed event times, it is possible to calculate the daily risk of cardio- and cerebrovascular events in patients treated with these drugs. The estimated number of patients experiencing cardio- and cerebrovascular events under rofecoxib or naproxen therapy can be calculated by multiplying the daily risks by the defined daily doses prescribed in Germany. The difference between these numbers produces the estimated number of patients harmed by rofecoxib. RESULTS: On the basis of the data pool, a total of 7,092 additional diseased or deceased patients due to rofecoxib therapy were estimated (95% confidence interval: 2,004-15,416). The simplifying assumptions made together with the underreporting of events in the VIGOR trial are more likely to lead to an underestimation than an overestimation of affected patients. When assessing the benefit-harm ratio of rofecoxib, it needs to be considered that its protective gastrointestinal effects were not assessed compared with the optimum long-term therapy. It can be assumed that a comparison of rofecoxib with a combination of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and gastric mucosal barrier protectors (e. g., misoprostol) would not have shown an advantage in favor of rofecoxib therapy. CONCLUSION: The example of rofecoxib and the relatively high number of patients harmed by it in Germany indicate that, before widely prescribing a new drug, a more thorough assessment of the benefit-harm ratio of the drug is required as well as a stronger consideration of therapeutic alternatives and a timely conduct of meaningful clinical studies. The results of these studies should be promptly communicated in full to physicians and patients.

Significant variation in mortality and functional outcome after acute ischaemic stroke between Western countries: data from the tinzaparin in acute ischaemic stroke trial (TAIST).

BACKGROUND: The medical care of patients with acute stroke varies considerably between countries. This could lead to measurable differences in mortality and functional outcome. OBJECTIVE: To compare case mix, clinical management, and functional outcome in stroke between 11 countries. METHODS: All 1484 patients from 11 countries who were enrolled into the tinzaparin in acute ischaemic stroke trial (TAIST) were included in this substudy. Information collected prospectively on demographics, risk factors, clinical features, measures of service quality (for example, admission to a stroke unit), and outcome were assessed. Outcomes were adjusted for treatment assignment, case mix, and service relative to the British Isles. RESULTS: Differences in case mix (mostly minor) and clinical service (many of prognostic relevance) were present between the countries. Significant differences in outcome were present between the countries. When assessed by geographical region, death or dependency were lower in North America (odds ratio (OR) adjusted for treatment group only = 0.52 (95% confidence interval, 0.39 to 0.71) and north west Europe (OR = 0.54 (0.37 to 0.78)) relative to the British Isles; similar reductions were found when adjustments were made for 11 case mix variables and five service quality measures. Similarly, case fatality rates were lower in North America (OR = 0.44 (0.30 to 0.66)) and Scandinavia (OR = 0.50 (0.33 to 0.74)) relative to the British Isles, whether crude or adjusted for case mix and service quality. CONCLUSIONS: Both functional outcome and case fatality vary considerably between countries, even when adjusted for prognostic case mix variables and measures of good stroke care. Differing health care systems and the management of patients with acute stroke may contribute to these findings.

[Brain perfusion SPECT in the prognostic assessment of stroke]. / SPECT de perfusión cerebral en la valoracion pronóstica del ictus.

PURPOSE: To compare the diagnostic yield of CT scan and perfusion SPECT on admission and its prognostic value in clinical outcome. METHODS: 25 ischemic stroke cases were studied on admission (<24 h) and at 30-60 days by CT scan, 99mTc-HMPAO-SPECT and neurological scales. Infarct size and severity on SPECT were assessed: visually "Total Weighted Score," added value in 22 areas, and by several semiquantitative count-based indices. RESULTS: Sensitivity: the first CT scan was positive in 24% patients, initial SPECT in 75% (73% of pure subcortical infarcts and 91% of those with cortical involvement). Localization: kappa: 0.725 between SPECT findings on admission and those in control-CT at 5 days. Extent and severity: correlations between count-based and visual indices (r: >0.719), the latter correlated slightly better with clinical scales. Both predicted similarly (Rho>0.739) infarct size in CT diagnostic scan. Early Outcome: There were statistical differences between deceased and survivors in SPECT (<24h) indices and CT-infarct size (mean 5 days), but not in neurological scores on admission. Long term Outcome: Correlation of initial SPECT indices with follow-up functional scores (SNSLP, Barthel index; mean 37 days) was only significant for visual SPECT indices (Rho:0.560 to 0.620). Nevertheless the best predictor of functional status on discharge was the Barthel Index on admission. CONCLUSIONS: 1) Early SPECT has good sensitivity and accurate infarct size prediction so it can be a useful tool for deciding thrombolytic therapy; 2) Visual scores perform as well as more complex indices; 3) Infarct volume seems to be a critical determinant in vital outcome; other factors (strategic localization, etc.) might influence long term functional status.

A decision analysis of thrombolytic therapy compared with standard therapy in acute ischaemic stroke.

OBJECTIVES: Experts draw different conclusions on whether thrombolysis can be recommended or not for acute ischaemic stroke. A major problem is weighing the improvement in functional ability against the risk of increased mortality. We wanted to examine this uncertainty regarding thrombolysis using a systematic approach and with a strong emphasis on the patient's point of view. METHODS: We performed a decision analysis where the base case focused on an average stroke patient. We used published probabilities for different functional outcomes after standard supportive care and after adding tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), and we tried to estimate corresponding long-term survival. We interviewed 158 subjects with the standard gamble method to elicit their preference values (utility) for these outcomes. RESULTS: When using the baseline data for an average stroke patient, thrombolysis with tPA was the better choice, with 48 extra quality-adjusted living days; tPA was also superior in 117 individual decision analyses, giving from 10 to 173 extra days. However, sensitivity analysis showed that these results were highly susceptible to changes in utility for major disability, probability of early death, and long-term survival after thrombolysis. To increase the gain as well as the margin of safety regarding the treatment choice, thrombolysis should be restricted to patients who assign low utility values < 0.6-0.7 to major poststroke disability (death = 0.0, good health = 1.0). CONCLUSION: Evaluated by decision analysis, thrombolysis with tPA is on average superior to standard therapy for the few patients fulfilling the strict medical inclusion criteria. Individual incorporation of the patient's point of view narrows the indication even further.

Hospitalization and case-fatality rates for stroke in Canada from 1982 through 1991. The Canadian Collaborative Study Group of Stroke Hospitalizations.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to estimate rates of hospitalization and in-hospital case-fatality for cerebral infarction and intracerebral hemorrhage in Canada and to describe variation in rates by age, sex, and calendar period. METHODS: Data were obtained from hospitalization databases for each of Canada's 10 provinces for the 10 fiscal years of 1982 through 1991. All hospitalizations of persons 15 years of age or older with a primary diagnosis at discharge coded 431, 434, or 436 according to the International Classification of Disease, 9th Revision, were included. Rates per 100,000 population were calculated for intracerebral hemorrhage and cerebral infarction, for men and women, and for five age groups. Annual age- and sex-specific, 30-day, in-hospital case-fatality rates were also calculated. RESULTS: A total of 335,283 discharges for stroke were enumerated over the 10-year period (309,631 cerebral infarctions and 25 652 intracerebral hemorrhages). A significant decline of approximately 1% per year was observed for the rate of cerebral infarctions. For hemorrhages, the reverse was seen. For men there was a 44% increase over the 10-year period, and for women there was a 34% increase. In-hospital case-fatality rates for cerebral infarctions increased with age but did not differ by sex when age was considered. For the five age groups of 15 to 54, 55 to 64, 65 to 74, 75 to 84 and > or = 85 years, rates were 6%, 8%, 12%, 18% and 27%, respectively. For intracerebral hemorrhage, the in-hospital case-fatality rates declined significantly over time from approximately 36% to 29%, 55% to 37%, 49% to 41%, 66% to 45%, and 72% to 59% for the five age groups, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The possibility that these changes are artifactual could not be ruled out, but because there is no obvious risk in assuming that they are not, it would be prudent to investigate their causes further.

Endarterectomy for asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis. Executive Committee for the Asymptomatic Carotid Atherosclerosis Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the addition of carotid endarterectomy to aggressive medical management can reduce the incidence of cerebral infarction in patients with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis. DESIGN: Prospective, randomized, multicenter trial. SETTING: Thirty-nine clinical sites across the United States and Canada. PATIENTS: Between December 1987 and December 1993, a total of 1662 patients with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis of 60% or greater reduction in diameter were randomized; follow-up data are available on 1659. At baseline, recognized risk factors for stroke were similar between the two treatment groups. INTERVENTION: Daily aspirin administration and medical risk factor management for all patients; carotid endarterectomy for patients randomized to receive surgery. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Initially, transient ischemic attack or cerebral infarction occurring in the distribution of the study artery and any transient ischemic attack, stroke, or death occurring in the perioperative period. In March 1993, the primary outcome measures were changed to cerebral infarction occurring in the distribution of the study artery or any stroke or death occurring in the perioperative period. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 2.7 years, with 4657 patient-years of observation, the aggregate risk over 5 years for ipsilateral stroke and any perioperative stroke or death was estimated to be 5.1% for surgical patients and 11.0% for patients treated medically (aggregate risk reduction of 53% [95% confidence interval, 22% to 72%]). CONCLUSION: Patients with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis of 60% or greater reduction in diameter and whose general health makes them good candidates for elective surgery will have a reduced 5-year risk of ipsilateral stroke if carotid endarterectomy performed with less than 3% perioperative morbidity and mortality is added to aggressive management of modifiable risk factors.

Impact of computed tomography on stroke management and outcome.

Computed tomographic (CT) scanning is effective to show cerebrovascular lesions causing the symptoms and signs of a stroke. However, CT scanning may not change stroke morbidity or mortality. A retrospective medical chart review compared 93 patients with cerebral infarctions treated before CT scanning was available with 92 patients who had undergone scanning. The two groups showed no difference in type of treatment given or in subsequent severity of disability, mortality, or discharge destination. However, the post-CT group had a significant reduction in the total number of neurodiagnostic procedures, but estimated total charges for all diagnostic procedures were not significantly reduced. Computed tomographic scanning may not be beneficial for stroke patients who have a clear history of acute onset, are alert, and have no findings indicating an intracranial mass.