Reducing Hospitalizations and Multidrug-Resistant Organisms via Regional Decolonization in Hospitals and Nursing Homes.

Importance: Infections due to multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) are associated with increased morbidity, mortality, length of hospitalization, and health care costs. Regional interventions may be advantageous in mitigating MDROs and associated infections. Objective: To evaluate whether implementation of a decolonization collaborative is associated with reduced regional MDRO prevalence, incident clinical cultures, infection-related hospitalizations, costs, and deaths. Design, Setting, and Participants: This quality improvement study was conducted from July 1, 2017, to July 31, 2019, across 35 health care facilities in Orange County, California. Exposures: Chlorhexidine bathing and nasal iodophor antisepsis for residents in long-term care and hospitalized patients in contact precautions (CP). Main Outcomes and Measures: Baseline and end of intervention MDRO point prevalence among participating facilities; incident MDRO (nonscreening) clinical cultures among participating and nonparticipating facilities; and infection-related hospitalizations and associated costs and deaths among residents in participating and nonparticipating nursing homes (NHs). Results: Thirty-five facilities (16 hospitals, 16 NHs, 3 long-term acute care hospitals [LTACHs]) adopted the intervention. Comparing decolonization with baseline periods among participating facilities, the mean (SD) MDRO prevalence decreased from 63.9% (12.2%) to 49.9% (11.3%) among NHs, from 80.0% (7.2%) to 53.3% (13.3%) among LTACHs (odds ratio [OR] for NHs and LTACHs, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.40-0.57), and from 64.1% (8.5%) to 55.4% (13.8%) (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.60-0.93) among hospitalized patients in CP. When comparing decolonization with baseline among NHs, the mean (SD) monthly incident MDRO clinical cultures changed from 2.7 (1.9) to 1.7 (1.1) among participating NHs, from 1.7 (1.4) to 1.5 (1.1) among nonparticipating NHs (group × period interaction reduction, 30.4%; 95% CI, 16.4%-42.1%), from 25.5 (18.6) to 25.0 (15.9) among participating hospitals, from 12.5 (10.1) to 14.3 (10.2) among nonparticipating hospitals (group × period interaction reduction, 12.9%; 95% CI, 3.3%-21.5%), and from 14.8 (8.6) to 8.2 (6.1) among LTACHs (all facilities participating; 22.5% reduction; 95% CI, 4.4%-37.1%). For NHs, the rate of infection-related hospitalizations per 1000 resident-days changed from 2.31 during baseline to 1.94 during intervention among participating NHs, and from 1.90 to 2.03 among nonparticipating NHs (group × period interaction reduction, 26.7%; 95% CI, 19.0%-34.5%). Associated hospitalization costs per 1000 resident-days changed from $64 651 to $55 149 among participating NHs and from $55 151 to $59 327 among nonparticipating NHs (group × period interaction reduction, 26.8%; 95% CI, 26.7%-26.9%). Associated hospitalization deaths per 1000 resident-days changed from 0.29 to 0.25 among participating NHs and from 0.23 to 0.24 among nonparticipating NHs (group × period interaction reduction, 23.7%; 95% CI, 4.5%-43.0%). Conclusions and Relevance: A regional collaborative involving universal decolonization in long-term care facilities and targeted decolonization among hospital patients in CP was associated with lower MDRO carriage, infections, hospitalizations, costs, and deaths.

High Burden of Serious Bacterial Infections in African Children Treated for Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Infections in children treated for cancer contribute to morbidity and mortality. There is a paucity of studies on the incidence, etiology, risk factors and outcome of bacterial infections in African children treated for cancer. The aim of the study was to delineate the epidemiology of infectious morbidity and mortality in children with cancer. METHODS: The study enrolled children 1-19 years old with cancer and infections. Children were investigated for infection as part of standard of care. RESULTS: One hundred sixty-nine children were enrolled, 82 with hematologic malignancies and 87 with solid tumors and 10.7% were HIV infected. The incidence (per 100 child-years) of septic episodes (101) microbiologically confirmed (70.9) septic episodes, Gram-positive (48.5) and Gram-negative (37.6) sepsis was higher in children with hematologic malignancies than in those with solid tumors. The most common Gram-positive bacteria were Coagulase-negative Staphylococci, Streptococcus viridans and Enterococcus faecium, while the most common Gram-negative bacteria were Escherichia coli, Acinetobacter baumannii and Pseudomonas species. The C-reactive protein and procalcitonin was higher in microbiologically confirmed sepsis. The case fatality risk was 40.4%; 80% attributed to sepsis. The odds of dying from sepsis were higher in children with profound [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 3.96; P = 0.004] or prolonged neutropenia (aOR = 3.71; P = 0.011) and profound lymphopenia (aOR = 4.09; P = 0.003) and independently associated with pneumonia (53.85% vs. 29.23%; aOR = 2.38; P = 0.025) and tuberculosis (70.83% vs. 34.91%; aOR = 4.3; P = 0.005). CONCLUSION: The study emphasizes the high burden of sepsis in African children treated for cancer and highlights the association of tuberculosis and pneumonia as independent predictors of death in children with cancer.

Prognostic accuracy of the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA)-lactate criteria for mortality in adults with suspected bacterial infection in the emergency department of a hospital with limited resources.

BACKGROUND: Routine use of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score to prognosticate patients with sepsis is challenged by the requirement to perform numerous laboratory tests. The prognostic accuracy of the quick SOFA (qSOFA) without or with lactate criteria has not been prospectively investigated in low and middle income countries. We assessed the performance of simplified prognosis criteria using qSOFA-lactate criteria in the emergency department of a hospital with limited resources, in comparison with SOFA prognosis criteria and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) screening criteria. METHODS: This prospective cohort study was conducted between March and December 2017 in adult patients with suspected bacterial infection visiting the emergency department of the Indonesian National Referral Hospital. Variables from sepsis prognosis and screening criteria and venous lactate concentration at enrolment were recorded. Patients were followed up until hospital discharge or death. Prognostic accuracy was measured using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of each criterion in the prediction of in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: Of 3026 patients screened, 1213 met the inclusion criteria. The AUROC of qSOFA-lactate criteria was 0.74 (95% CI 0.71 to 0.77). The AUROC of qSOFA-lactate was not statistically significantly different to the SOFA score (AUROC 0.75, 95% CI 0.72 to 0.78; p=0.462). The qSOFA-lactate was significantly higher than qSOFA (AUROC 0.70, 95% CI0.67 to 0.74; p=0.006) and SIRS criteria (0.57, 95% CI0.54 to 0.60; p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The prognostic accuracy of the qSOFA-lactate criteria is as good as the SOFA score in the emergency department of a hospital with limited resources. The performance of the qSOFA criteria is significantly lower than the qSOFA-lactate criteria and SOFA score.This abstract has been translated and adapted from the original English-language content. Translated content is provided on an "as is" basis. Translation accuracy or reliability is not guaranteed or implied. BMJ is not responsible for any errors and omissions arising from translation to the fullest extent permitted by law, BMJ shall not incur any liability, including without limitation, liability for damages, arising from the translated text.

Analysis to determine cost-effectiveness of procalcitonin-guided antibiotic use in adult patients with suspected bacterial infection and sepsis.

PURPOSE: Results of a study incorporating real-world results into a predictive model to assess the cost-effectiveness of procalcitonin (PCT)-guided antibiotic use in intensive care unit patients with sepsis are reported. METHODS: A single-center, retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted to determine whether reductions in antibiotic therapy duration and other care improvements resulting from PCT testing and use of an associated treatment pathway offset the costs of PCT testing. Selected base-case cost outcomes in adults with sepsis admitted to a medical intensive care unit (MICU) were assessed in preintervention and postintervention cohorts using a decision analytic model. Cost-minimization and cost-utility analyses were performed from the hospital perspective with a 1-year time horizon. Secondary and univariate sensitivity analyses tested a variety of clinically relevant scenarios and the robustness of the model. RESULTS: Base-case modeling predicted that use of a PCT-guided treatment algorithm would results in hospital cost savings of $45 per patient and result in a gain of 0.0001 quality-adjusted life-year. After exclusion of patients in the postintervention cohort for PCT test ordering outside of institutional guidelines, the mean inpatient antibiotic therapy duration was significantly reduced in the postintervention group relative to the preintervention group (6.2 days versus 4.9 days, p = 0.04) after adjustment for patient sex and age, Charlson Comorbidity Index score, study period, vasopressor use, and ventilator use. Total annual hospital cost savings of $4,840 were predicted. CONCLUSION: Real-world implementation of PCT-guided antibiotic use may have improved patients' quality of life while decreasing hospital costs in MICU patients with undifferentiated sepsis.

Resistance proportions for eight priority antibiotic-bacterium combinations in OECD, EU/EEA and G20 countries 2000 to 2030: a modelling study.

BackgroundAntimicrobial resistance is widely considered an urgent global health issue due to associated mortality and disability, societal and healthcare costs.AimTo estimate the past, current and projected future proportion of infections resistant to treatment for eight priority antibiotic-bacterium combinations from 2000 to 2030 for 52 countries.MethodsWe collated data from a variety of sources including ResistanceMap and World Bank. Feature selection algorithms and multiple imputation were used to produce a complete historical dataset. Forecasts were derived from an ensemble of three models: exponential smoothing, linear regression and random forest. The latter two were informed by projections of antibiotic consumption, out-of-pocket medical spending, populations aged 64 years and older and under 15 years and real gross domestic product. We incorporated three types of uncertainty, producing 150 estimates for each country-antibiotic-bacterium-year.ResultsAverage resistance proportions across antibiotic-bacterium combinations could grow moderately from 17% to 18% within the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD; growth in 64% of uncertainty sets), from 18% to 19% in the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA; growth in 87% of uncertainty sets) and from 29% to 31% in Group of Twenty (G20) countries (growth in 62% of uncertainty sets) between 2015 and 2030. There is broad heterogeneity in levels and rates of change across countries and antibiotic-bacterium combinations from 2000 to 2030.ConclusionIf current trends continue, resistance proportions are projected to marginally increase in the coming years. The estimates indicate there is significant heterogeneity in resistance proportions across countries and antibiotic-bacterium combinations.

Value of hospital antimicrobial stewardship programs [ASPs]: a systematic review.

Background: Hospital antimicrobial stewardship programs (ASPs) aim to promote judicious use of antimicrobials to combat antimicrobial resistance. For ASPs to be developed, adopted, and implemented, an economic value assessment is essential. Few studies demonstrate the cost-effectiveness of ASPs. This systematic review aimed to evaluate the economic and clinical impact of ASPs. Methods: An update to the Dik et al. systematic review (2000-2014) was conducted on EMBASE and Medline using PRISMA guidelines. The updated search was limited to primary research studies in English (30 September 2014-31 December 2017) that evaluated patient and/or economic outcomes after implementation of hospital ASPs including length of stay (LOS), antimicrobial use, and total (including operational and implementation) costs. Results: One hundred forty-six studies meeting inclusion criteria were included. The majority of these studies were conducted within the last 5 years in North America (49%), Europe (25%), and Asia (14%), with few studies conducted in Africa (3%), South America (3%), and Australia (3%). Most studies were conducted in hospitals with 500-1000 beds and evaluated LOS and change in antibiotic expenditure, the majority of which showed a decrease in LOS (85%) and antibiotic expenditure (92%). The mean cost-savings varied by hospital size and region after implementation of ASPs. Average cost savings in US studies were $732 per patient (range: $2.50 to $2640), with similar trends exhibited in European studies. The key driver of cost savings was from reduction in LOS. Savings were higher among hospitals with comprehensive ASPs which included therapy review and antibiotic restrictions. Conclusions: Our data indicates that hospital ASPs have significant value with beneficial clinical and economic impacts. More robust published data is required in terms of implementation, LOS, and overall costs so that decision-makers can make a stronger case for investing in ASPs, considering competing priorities. Such data on ASPs in lower- and middle-income countries is limited and requires urgent attention.

Trends in Hospitalization, Acute Kidney Injury, and Mortality in Patients With Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis.

GOALS: The purpose of our study was to evaluate trends of hospitalization, acute kidney injury (AKI) and mortality in cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP). BACKGROUND: SBP is a frequent bacterial infection in cirrhotic patients leading to increased morbidity and mortality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 4,840,643 patients hospitalized with cirrhosis from 2005 to 2014 were identified using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample database, of which 115,359 (2.4%) had SBP. We examined annual trends and used multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression analyses to obtain adjusted odds ratios by accounting for hospital level and patient level variables. RESULTS: We identified a striking increase in hospitalizations for SBP in cirrhotic patients (0.45% to 3.12%) and AKI in SBP patients (25.6% to 46.7%) from 2005 to 2014. Inpatient mortality decreased over the study period in patients with SBP (19.1% to 16.1%) and in patients with SBP plus AKI (40.9% to 27.6%). Patients with SBP had a higher inpatient mortality rate than those without SBP [15.5% vs. 6%, adjusted odd ratio (aOR): 2.02, P<0.001]. AKI was 2-fold more prevalent in cirrhotics with SBP than those without SBP (42.8% vs. 17.2%, aOR: 1.91, P<0.001) and concomitant AKI was associated with a 6-fold mortality increase (aOR: 5.84, P<0.001). Cirrhotic patients with SBP had higher hospitalization costs and longer length of stays than patients without SBP. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a higher hospitalization rate and prevalence of concomitant AKI, mortality in patients with SBP decreased during the study period. SBP is associated with high likelihood of development of AKI, which in turn, increases mortality.

Changes in exhaled 13CO2/12CO2 breath delta value as an early indicator of infection in intensive care unit patients.

BACKGROUND: We have developed a new, noninvasive predictive marker for onset of infection in surgical intensive care unit (ICU) patients. The exhaled CO2/CO2 ratio, or breath delta value (BDV), has been shown to be an early marker for infection in a proof of concept human study and in animal models of bacterial peritonitis. In these studies, the BDV changes during onset and progression of infection, and these changes precede physiological changes associated with infection. Earlier diagnosis and treatment will significantly reduce morbidity, mortality, hospitalization costs, and length of stay. The objective of this prospective, observational, multicenter study was to determine the predictive value of the BDV as an early diagnostic marker of infection. METHODS: Critically ill adults after trauma or acute care surgery with an expected length of stay longer than 5 days were enrolled. The BDV was obtained every 4 hours for 7 days and correlated to clinical infection diagnosis, serum C-reactive protein, and procalcitonin levels. Clinical infection diagnosis was made by an independent endpoint committee. This trial was registered at the US National Institutes of Health (ClinicalTrials.gov) NCT02327130. RESULTS: Groups were demographically similar (n = 20). Clinical infection diagnosis was confirmed on day 3.9 ± 0.63. Clinical suspicion of infection (defined by SIRS criteria and/or new antibiotic therapy) was on day 2.1 ± 0.5 in all infected patients. However, 5 (56%) of 9 noninfected subjects also met clinical suspicion criteria. The BDV significantly increased by 1‰ to 1.7‰ on day 2.1 after enrollment (p < 0.05) in subjects who developed infections, while it remained at baseline (± 0.5‰) for subjects without infections. CONCLUSION: A BDV greater than 1.4‰ accurately differentiates subjects who develop infections from those who do not and predicts the presence of infection up to 48 hours before clinical confirmation. The BDV may predict the onset of infection and aid in distinguishing SIRS from infection, which could prompt earlier diagnosis, earlier appropriate treatment, and improve outcomes. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Diagnostic test, level III.

Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of diarrhoea in 195 countries: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of diarrhoea in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies in 1990-2016 and assesses how the burden of diarrhoea has changed in people of all ages. METHODS: We modelled diarrhoea mortality with a Bayesian hierarchical modelling platform that evaluates a wide range of covariates and model types on the basis of vital registration and verbal autopsy data. We modelled diarrhoea incidence with a compartmental meta-regression tool that enforces an association between incidence and prevalence, and relies on scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data. Diarrhoea deaths and episodes were attributed to 13 pathogens by use of a counterfactual population attributable fraction approach. Diarrhoea risk factors are also based on counterfactual estimates of risk exposure and the association between the risk and diarrhoea. Each modelled estimate accounted for uncertainty. FINDINGS: In 2016, diarrhoea was the eighth leading cause of death among all ages (1 655 944 deaths, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1 244 073-2 366 552) and the fifth leading cause of death among children younger than 5 years (446 000 deaths, 390 894-504 613). Rotavirus was the leading aetiology for diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years (128 515 deaths, 105 138-155 133) and among all ages (228 047 deaths, 183 526-292 737). Childhood wasting (low weight-for-height score), unsafe water, and unsafe sanitation were the leading risk factors for diarrhoea, responsible for 80·4% (95% UI 68·2-85·0), 72·1% (34·0-91·4), and 56·4% (49·3-62·7) of diarrhoea deaths in children younger than 5 years, respectively. Prevention of wasting in 1762 children (95% UI 1521-2170) could avert one death from diarrhoea. INTERPRETATION: Substantial progress has been made globally in reducing the burden of diarrhoeal diseases, driven by decreases in several primary risk factors. However, this reduction has not been equal across locations, and burden among adults older than 70 years requires attention. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

BACKGROUND: Lower respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality around the world. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 26 years and shows how the burden of lower respiratory infection has changed in people of all ages. METHODS: We used three separate modelling strategies for lower respiratory infections in GBD 2016: a Bayesian hierarchical ensemble modelling platform (Cause of Death Ensemble model), which uses vital registration, verbal autopsy data, and surveillance system data to predict mortality due to lower respiratory infections; a compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR), which uses scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data to predict incidence, prevalence, and mortality; and modelling of counterfactual estimates of the population attributable fraction of lower respiratory infection episodes due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae type b, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus. We calculated each modelled estimate for each age, sex, year, and location. We modelled the exposure level in a population for a given risk factor using DisMod-MR and a spatio-temporal Gaussian process regression, and assessed the effectiveness of targeted interventions for each risk factor in children younger than 5 years. We also did a decomposition analysis of the change in LRI deaths from 2000-16 using the risk factors associated with LRI in GBD 2016. FINDINGS: In 2016, lower respiratory infections caused 652 572 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 586 475-720 612) in children younger than 5 years (under-5s), 1 080 958 deaths (943 749-1 170 638) in adults older than 70 years, and 2 377 697 deaths (2 145 584-2 512 809) in people of all ages, worldwide. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the leading cause of lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality globally, contributing to more deaths than all other aetiologies combined in 2016 (1 189 937 deaths, 95% UI 690 445-1 770 660). Childhood wasting remains the leading risk factor for lower respiratory infection mortality among children younger than 5 years, responsible for 61·4% of lower respiratory infection deaths in 2016 (95% UI 45·7-69·6). Interventions to improve wasting, household air pollution, ambient particulate matter pollution, and expanded antibiotic use could avert one under-5 death due to lower respiratory infection for every 4000 children treated in the countries with the highest lower respiratory infection burden. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show substantial progress in the reduction of lower respiratory infection burden, but this progress has not been equal across locations, has been driven by decreases in several primary risk factors, and might require more effort among elderly adults. By highlighting regions and populations with the highest burden, and the risk factors that could have the greatest effect, funders, policy makers, and programme implementers can more effectively reduce lower respiratory infections among the world's most susceptible populations. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Diabetes Shared Care Program (DSCP) and risk of infection mortality: a nationwide cohort study using administrative claims data in Taiwan.

OBJECTIVE: The Diabetes Shared Care Program (DSCP) is an integrated care model in Taiwan that has been proven to improve the care quality of patients with diabetes. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy of DSCP in decreasing the hospital mortality of infectious diseases. METHODS: From 1 662 929 patients with type 2 diabetes newly diagnosed between 1999 and 2013, we retrieved a total of 919 patients who participated in the DSCP with the first hospitalisation for an infectious disease as the study cohort and 9190 propensity score-matched patients with type 2 diabetes who did not participate as the comparison.The efficacy of DSCP was evaluated via the following comparisons between the DSCP and non-DSCP cohorts: hospital mortality, 1-year medical cost prior to and during the hospitalisation, and complications, such as receiving mechanical ventilation and intensive care unit admission. The ratio (OR) for hospital mortality of the DSCP participants was calculated by logistical regression. Further stratification analyses were conducted to examine which group of patients with type 2 diabetes benefited the most from the DSCP during hospitalisation for infectious diseases. RESULTS: The DSCP cohort had a lower hospital mortality rate than the non-DSCP participants (2.18% vs 4.82%, p<0.001). The total medical cost during the hospitalisation was lower in the DSCP cohort than in the non-DSCP cohort (NT$72 454±30 429 vs NT$86 385±29 350) (p=0.006). In the logistical regression model, the DSCP participants exhibited a significantly decreased adjusted OR for hospital mortality (adjusted OR=0.42, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.66, p=0.0002). The efficacy of the DSCP was much more prominent in male patients with type 2 diabetes and in patients with lower incomes. CONCLUSION: Participation in the DSCP was associated with a lower risk of hospital mortality for infectious diseases.

Estimating the burden of antimicrobial resistance: a systematic literature review.

Background: Accurate estimates of the burden of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are needed to establish the magnitude of this global threat in terms of both health and cost, and to paramaterise cost-effectiveness evaluations of interventions aiming to tackle the problem. This review aimed to establish the alternative methodologies used in estimating AMR burden in order to appraise the current evidence base. Methods: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, EconLit, PubMed and grey literature were searched. English language studies evaluating the impact of AMR (from any microbe) on patient, payer/provider and economic burden published between January 2013 and December 2015 were included. Independent screening of title/abstracts followed by full texts was performed using pre-specified criteria. A study quality score (from zero to one) was derived using Newcastle-Ottawa and Philips checklists. Extracted study data were used to compare study method and resulting burden estimate, according to perspective. Monetary costs were converted into 2013 USD. Results: Out of 5187 unique retrievals, 214 studies were included. One hundred eighty-seven studies estimated patient health, 75 studies estimated payer/provider and 11 studies estimated economic burden. 64% of included studies were single centre. The majority of studies estimating patient or provider/payer burden used regression techniques. 48% of studies estimating mortality burden found a significant impact from resistance, excess healthcare system costs ranged from non-significance to $1 billion per year, whilst economic burden ranged from $21,832 per case to over $3 trillion in GDP loss. Median quality scores (interquartile range) for patient, payer/provider and economic burden studies were 0.67 (0.56-0.67), 0.56 (0.46-0.67) and 0.53 (0.44-0.60) respectively. Conclusions: This study highlights what methodological assumptions and biases can occur dependent on chosen outcome and perspective. Currently, there is considerable variability in burden estimates, which can lead in-turn to inaccurate intervention evaluations and poor policy/investment decisions. Future research should utilise the recommendations presented in this review. Trial registration: This systematic review is registered with PROSPERO (PROSPERO CRD42016037510).

Adult hospital admissions associated with multiple sclerosis in Finland in 2004-2014.

INTRODUCTION: Treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS) has developed significantly and several new immunotherapeutic drugs have become available in Finland since 2004. We studied whether this is associated with changes in hospital admission frequencies and healthcare costs and whether admission rates due to infection have increased. METHODS: The national Care Register for Health Care was searched for all discharges from neurological, medical, surgical, neurosurgical and intensive care units with MS as a primary diagnosis or an auxiliary diagnosis for primary infection diagnosis in 2004-2014. Only patients ≥16 years of age were included. RESULTS: We identified 12,276 hospital admissions for 4296 individuals. The number of admissions declined by 4.6% annually (p = .0024) in both genders. Proportion of admissions with an infection as the primary diagnosis increased but no change in their frequency was found. They were longer than admissions with MS as the primary diagnosis and were associated with increased in-hospital mortality. The annual aggregate cost of hospital admissions declined by 51% during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that hospital admission rates and costs related to MS hospital admissions have markedly declined from 2004 to 2014 in Finland, which coincides with an increase in the use of disease-modifying therapies. Key message Hospital admission rates and costs related to MS hospital admissions have markedly declined from 2004 to 2014 in Finland. Proportion of admission related to infection has increased and they are associated with longer hospitalizations and increased in-hospital mortality pointing out the importance of infection prevention.

Evaluating the Clinical Burden and Mortality Attributable to Antibiotic Resistance: The Disparity of Empirical Data and Simple Model Estimations.

Given the proliferation of cataclysmic predictions about antibiotic resistance, cases of which are estimated to amount to 12500 per year in France, we herein decided to compare the empirical clinical microbiology data from our institution with estimates and predictions from 10 major international scientific articles and reports. The analysis of 7 years of antibiotic resistance data from 10 bacterial species and genera of clinical interest from our institution identified no deaths that were directly attributable to extremely drug-resistant bacteria. By comparing our observations to the 10 articles and reports studied herein, we concluded that their results lack empirical data. Interventions are urgently needed to significantly reduce both mortality and the healthcare costs associated with bacterial infections, including the implementation of local and national laboratory data-based surveillance systems for the routine surveillance of antibiotic resistance that would be helpful for a better understanding of how to manage antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the future.

Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory tract infections in 195 countries: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2015 provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory tract infections (LRIs) in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 25 years and shows how the burden of LRI has changed in people of all ages. METHODS: We estimated LRI mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using a modelling platform shared across most causes of death in the GBD 2015 study called the Cause of Death Ensemble model. We modelled LRI morbidity, including incidence and prevalence, using a meta-regression platform called DisMod-MR. We estimated aetiologies for LRI using two different counterfactual approaches, the first for viral pathogens, which incorporates the aetiology-specific risk of LRI and the prevalence of the aetiology in LRI episodes, and the second for bacterial pathogens, which uses a vaccine-probe approach. We used the Socio-demographic Index, which is a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility, to assess trends in LRI-related mortality. The two leading risk factors for LRI disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), childhood undernutrition and air pollution, were used in a decomposition analysis to establish the relative contribution of changes in LRI DALYs. FINDINGS: In 2015, we estimated that LRIs caused 2·74 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·50 million to 2·86 million) and 103·0 million DALYs (95% UI 96·1 million to 109·1 million). LRIs have a disproportionate effect on children younger than 5 years, responsible for 704 000 deaths (95% UI 651 000-763 000) and 60.6 million DALYs (95ÙI 56·0-65·6). Between 2005 and 2015, the number of deaths due to LRI decreased by 36·9% (95% UI 31·6 to 42·0) in children younger than 5 years, and by 3·2% (95% UI -0·4 to 6·9) in all ages. Pneumococcal pneumonia caused 55·4% of LRI deaths in all ages, totalling 1 517 388 deaths (95% UI 857 940-2 183 791). Between 2005 and 2015, improvements in air pollution exposure were responsible for a 4·3% reduction in LRI DALYs and improvements in childhood undernutrition were responsible for an 8·9% reduction. INTERPRETATION: LRIs are the leading infectious cause of death and the fifth-leading cause of death overall; they are the second-leading cause of DALYs. At the global level, the burden of LRIs has decreased dramatically in the last 10 years in children younger than 5 years, although the burden in people older than 70 years has increased in many regions. LRI remains a largely preventable disease and cause of death, and continued efforts to decrease indoor and ambient air pollution, improve childhood nutrition, and scale up the use of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in children and adults will be essential in reducing the global burden of LRI. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of antimicrobial resistance in an era of decreasing susceptibility.

INTRODUCTION: Antimicrobial resistance has become a global problem. Many pathogens are becoming multidrug-resistant with the attendant increased risk of failure of standard therapies and the under-recognised outcomes such as increased morbidity, mortality, length of hospitalization and costs of treatment. Areas covered: We undertook a review of the literature using standard search engines including PubMed, Google Scholar, Scopus and internet sources. Key search terms included antimicrobial resistance, antibiotic resistance, bacterial resistance, clinical outcomes, economic consequences, Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus. Expert commentary: Antimicrobial resistance among the five-species presented demonstrates a major, and increasing, deleterious impact seen in each of the key outcomes measured. These negative changes, at a personal, health system and Societal levels, further emphasise the growing problem of increasing antimicrobial resistance at a global level and the vital need for new antimicrobials.