Financial impacts of a housing order on commercial free range egg layers in response to highly pathogenic avian influenza.

Recent annual outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) have led to mandatory housing orders on commercial free-range flocks. Indefinite periods of housing, after poultry have had access to range, could have production and financial consequences for free range egg producers. The impact of these housing orders on the performance of commercial flocks is seldom explored at a business level, predominantly due to the paucity of commercially sensitive data. The aim of this paper is to assess the financial and production impacts of a housing order on commercial free-range egg layers. We use a unique data set showing week by week performance of layers gathered from 9 UK based farms over the period 2020-2022. These data cover an average of 100,000 laying hens and include two imposed housing orders, in 2020/2021 and in 2021/22. We applied a random intercept linear regression to assess impacts on physical outputs and inputs, bird mortality and the impacts on revenue, feed costs and margin over feed cost. Feed use and feed costs per bird increased during the housing order which is a consequence of increased control over diet intake in housed compared to ranged birds. An increase in revenue was also found, ostensibly due to a higher proportion of large eggs produced, leading to a higher margin over feed cost. Overall, these large commercial poultry sheds were able to mitigate some of the potential adverse economic effects of housing orders. Potential negative impacts may occur dependant on the duration of the housing order and those farms with less control over their input costs.

Economic impact of highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in Western Java smallholder broiler farms.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 is considered endemic in most parts of Indonesia and constitutes an important risk for broiler production, especially in Western Java which has the highest poultry population in the country. Most broiler farms in Western Java are smallholder farms that operate under different business types: independent (i.e., revenues based on market price and live bird weight), price-contract (i.e., revenues based on a contract selling price and live bird weight) or makloon (i.e., revenues based on a management fee per sold bird). Many studies focus on the epidemiological impacts of HPAI at the regional level, and insights into the economic impact at the farm level are scarce, especially in the Indonesian context. Meanwhile, a single HPAI outbreak could disrupt smallholder broiler farmers' primary source of income. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the economic impact of HPAI outbreaks under different response scenarios (i.e., no action, stamping out, and early selling) on typical Western Java smallholder broiler farms. Furthermore, the effect of different farm business types and the existence of a sick-bird market on the economic effects of HPAI outbreaks were evaluated. We developed a dynamic stochastic bio-economic simulation model to simulate epidemiological and economic impacts of HPAI outbreaks on a typical Western Java smallholder broiler farm during one production round. Our results show that the economic consequences of HPAI outbreaks for independent and price-contract farms are considerable, ranging from, on average, 1.2-62.7 million Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) losses (€76.9 to €3919), depending on the moment of and response to infection, compared to an expected gross margin of 5.3 million IDR (€331) under normal circumstances. The economic loss for makloon farms was substantially lower than for other business types, reducing their incentive to implement biosecurity. The economic impacts were sensitive to changes in a diverse set of parameters, including disease transmission rate, detection threshold, and stamping-out compensation. The losses in a scenario with stamping out were higher than in other scenarios, especially when stamping out happened near the end of the production round. Moreover, reacting to an outbreak by selling chickens early gave the lowest economic losses, incentivizing farmers to engage in behavior with a high disease transmission risk. Therefore, the results of this study suggest that it is important to consider the economic perspective of individual farmers when designing HPAI mitigation programs. Financial incentives for farmers to control HPAI differ largely between farm business types.

Assessment of poultry rearing practices and risk factors of H5N1 and H9N2 virus circulating among backyard chickens and ducks in rural communities.

BACKGROUND: The avian influenza virus (AIV) causes significant economic losses by infecting poultry and occasional spillover to humans. Backyard farms are vulnerable to AIV epidemics due to poor health management and biosecurity practices, threatening rural households' economic stability and nutrition. We have limited information about the risk factors associated with AIV infection in backyard poultry in Bangladesh. Hence, we conducted a cross-sectional survey comprising epidemiological and anthropological investigations to understand the poultry rearing practices and risk factors of AIV circulation among backyard poultry in selected rural communities. METHODS: We sampled 120 poultry from backyard farms (n = 30) of the three selected communities between February 2017 and January 2018. We tested swab samples for the matrix gene (M gene) followed by H5, H7, and H9 subtypes using real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). We applied multivariable logistic regression for risk factor analysis. Furthermore, we conducted an observational study (42 hours) and informal interviews (n = 30) with backyard farmers to record poultry-raising activities in rural communities. RESULTS: We detected that 25.2% of the backyard poultry tested positive for AIV, whereas 5% tested positive for H5N1 and 10.8% tested positive for H9N2. Results showed that scavenging in both household garden and other crop fields has higher odds of AIV than scavenging in the household garden (AOR: 24.811; 95% CI: 2.11-292.28), and keeping a cage inside the house has higher odds (AOR:14.5; 95% CI: 1.06-198.51) than keeping it in the veranda, cleaning the cage twice a week or weekly has a higher risk than cleaning daily (AOR: 34.45; 95% CI: 1.04-1139.65), dumping litter or droppings (AOR: 82.80; 95% CI: 3.91-1754.59) and dead birds or wastage (AOR: 109.92, 95% CI: 4.34-2785.29) near water bodies and bushes have a higher risk than burring in the ground, slaughtering and consuming sick birds also had a higher odd of AIV (AOR: 73.45, 95% CI: 1.56-3457.73) than treating the birds. The anthropological investigation revealed that household members had direct contact with the poultry in different ways, including touching, feeding, slaughtering, and contacting poultry feces. Poultry is usually kept inside the house, sick poultry are traditionally slaughtered and eaten, and most poultry raisers do not know that diseases can transmit from backyard poultry to humans. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed the circulation of H5N1 and H9N2 virus in backyard poultry in rural communities; associated with species, scavenging area of the poultry, location of the poultry cage, the practice of litter, wastage, droppings, and dead bird disposal, and practice of handling sick poultry. We suggest improving biosecurity practices in backyard poultry and mass awareness campaigns to reduce incidences of AIV in household-level poultry farms in rural communities in Bangladesh.

Europe's worst ever bird flu outbreak: This year's epidemic of highly pathogenic avian flu has had a devastating impact on wild and domestic birds and severe economic consequences.

This year's outbreak of avian flu has been the worst ever and prompted much debate and research on developing vaccines for domestic and wild birds.

Assessment of the spatiotemporal risk of avian influenza between waterfowl and poultry farms during the annual cycle: A spatial prediction study focused on seasonal distribution changes in resident waterfowl in South Korea.

Previous studies and efforts to prevent and manage avian influenza (AI) outbreaks have mainly focused on the wintering season. However, outbreaks of AI have been reported in the summer, including the breeding season of waterfowl. Additionally, the spatial distribution of waterfowl can easily change during the annual cycle due to their life-cycle traits and the presence of both migrants and residents in the population. Thus, we assessed the spatiotemporal variation in AI exposure risk in poultry due to spatial distribution changes in three duck species included in both major residents and wintering migrants in South Korea, the mandarin, mallard and spot-billed duck, during wintering (October-March), breeding (April-June) and whole annual seasons. To estimate seasonal ecological niche variations among the three duck species, we applied pairwise ecological niche analysis using the Pianka index. Subsequently, seasonal distribution models were projected by overlaying the monthly ranges estimated by the maximum entropy model. Finally, we overlaid each seasonal distribution range onto a poultry distribution map of South Korea. We found that the mandarin had less niche overlap with the mallard and spot-billed duck during the wintering season than during the breeding season, whereas the mallard had less niche overlap with the mandarin and spot-billed duck during the breeding season than during the wintering season. Breeding and annual distribution ranges of the mandarin and spot-billed duck, but not the mallard, were similar or even wider than their wintering ranges. Similarly, the mandarin and spot-billed duck showed more extensive overlap proportions between poultry and their distributional ranges during both the breeding and annual seasons than during the wintering season. These results suggest that potential AI exposure in poultry can occur more widely in the summer than in winter, depending on sympatry with the host duck species. Future studies considering the population density and variable pathogenicity of AI are required.

Big data-based risk assessment of poultry farms during the 2020/2021 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in Korea.

Outbreaks of H5-type highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry have been reported in various parts of the world. To respond to these continuous threats, numerous surveillance programs have been applied to poultry raising facilities as well as wild birds. In Korea, a surveillance program was developed aimed at providing a preemptive response to possible outbreaks at poultry farms. The purpose of this study is to comprehensively present the risks of HPAI evaluated by this program in relation to actual outbreak farms during the epidemic of 2020/2021. A deep learning-based risk assessment program was trained based on the pattern of livestock vehicles visiting poultry farms and HPAI outbreaks to calculate the risk of HPAI for farms linked by the movement of livestock vehicles (such farms are termed "epidemiologically linked farms"). A total of 7,984 risk assessments were conducted, and the results were categorized into four groups. The proportion of the highest risk level was greater in duck farms (13.6%) than in chicken farms (8.8%). Among the duck farms, the proportion of the highest risk level was much greater in farms where breeder ducks were raised (accounting for 26.4% of the risk) than in farms where ducks were raised to obtain meat (12.8% of the risk). A higher risk level was also found in cases where the species of the outbreak farm and epidemiologically linked farms were the same (proportion of the highest risk level = 13.2%) compared to that when the species between the two farms were different (7.9%). The overall proportion of farms with HPAI outbreaks among epidemiologically linked farms (attack rate, AR) was 1.7% as HPAI was confirmed on 67 of the 3,883 epidemiologically linked farms. The AR was highest for breeder ducks (15.3%) among duck farms and laying hens (4.8%) among chicken farms. The AR of the pairs where livestock vehicles entered the inner farm area was 1.3 times (95% confidence interval: 1.4-2.9) higher than that of all pairs. With the risk information provided, customized preventive measures can be implemented for each epidemiologically linked farm. The use of this risk assessment program would be a good example of information-based surveillance and support decision-making for controlling animal diseases.

Campylobacter positivity and public health risks in live bird markets in Busia, Kenya: A value chain analysis.

Live bird markets (LBMs) provide integral hubs for 95% of poultry produced for food. Surveillance systems in LBMs serving smallholder farmers in sub-saharan Africa are often non-functional, and data about public health risks and emerging pathogens are lacking. Studies in Kenya have reported 29-44% Campylobacter prevalence in poultry. We analysed such LBMs in Kenya for likely transmission of Campylobacter from poultry to humans. We conducted a cross-sectional survey among 186 live poultry traders (LPTs) in 14 LBMs in a region with widespread backyard poultry systems. A pretested structured questionnaire was administered to all LPTs having regular contacts with poultry to gather market data and risk information on campylobacteriosis. Campylobacter was detected in individual cloacal cultures and identified through PCR. The median score obtained from the outcome of risk assessment dichotomized respondents into high and low risk categories. We performed logistic regression at 95% confidence interval (CI) to compare market characteristics and Campylobacter positivity to risk categories to identify LBM-associated public health risks. Markets had a median of 13 traders, and mean age of 46.3 ± 13.7 years. Majority 162/186 (87.1%) were males. Market behavioural processes by LPTs varied: Only 58.6% LPTs held bird species separate; onsite slaughter (38.7%); encountered sick-bird (93%) and dead-bird (83%) amidst limited health inspection (31.2%). Campylobacter positivity in live birds was 43/112 (38.4%, 95% CI: 29.4-48.1). Risk information on campylobacteriosis was low 41/114 (36%, 95% CI: 27.2-45.5). Sanitary risks were related to accumulation of litter (adjusted prevalence odds ratio [aPOR]: 19.67, 95% CI: 3.01-128.52). Accessing hand-wash facilities (aPOR: .32, 95% CI: .13-.78) and access to information (aPOR: .24, 95% CI: .09-.61) were protective. Sanitary risks were related to poor hygiene. LBMs could be central surveillance sites for Campylobacter. Public health authorities/actors should consider appropriate targeting to improve sanitary measures and Campylobacter control strategies.

Assessing the economic burden of multi-causal respiratory diseases in broiler farms in Iran.

The aim of this study was to find the direct economic losses due to the three viral causes of the avian respiratory syndrome, including Newcastle disease (ND), H9N2 influenza, and infectious bronchitis (IB) in stamped-out broiler farms during 2016-2017 across the country. This study was carried out on the information on cross-sectional monitoring in the years 2016-2017. The statistical society of the study was all the active broiler farms of the country stamped out due to respiratory syndrome. This study used compensation insurance data, and other sources. One-way ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to analyze normally and non-normally distributed data. In total, during the study period, 132 broiler farms and 1,723,131 fowls were stamped out. According to the results of the present investigation, the sum of costs and losses due to respiratory complex was 9.47 $US Million, 2016-2017 (5.72 from $US Million chicken meat losses and 3.75 $US Million was the total cost). ND was the main cause of economic losses and costs with 3.86 $US equal to 40.8% of the total. Cost of feeding was the highest followed by veterinary services and medicines, vaccination, and 1-day-old chicks costs with 2.27, 1.11, 0.33, and 0.036 $US Million, 2016-2017. In conclusion, we need to improve the preventive measures against respiratory viruses, especially NDV. Additionally, as the cost of feeding was the largest, it is important to shorten the time interval between disease occurrence and stamping out to reduce the cost.

Exposure assessment for avian influenza and Newcastle disease viruses from peridomestic wild birds in a conservation breeding site in the United Arab Emirates.

Worldwide, wild birds are frequently suspected to be involved in the occurrence of outbreaks of different diseases in captive-bred birds although proofs are lacking and most of the dedicated studies are insufficiently conclusive to confirm or characterize the roles of wild birds in such outbreaks. The aim of this study was to assess and compare, for the most abundant peridomestic wild birds, the different exposure routes for avian influenza and Newcastle disease viruses in conservation breeding sites of Houbara bustards in the United Arab Emirates. To do so, we considered all of the potential pathways by which captive bustards could be exposed to avian influenza and Newcastle disease viruses by wild birds, and ran a comparative study of the likelihood of exposure via each of the pathways considered. We merged data from an ecological study dedicated to local wild bird communities with an analysis of the contacts between wild birds and captive bustards and with a prevalence survey of avian influenza and Newcastle disease viruses in wild bird populations. We also extracted data from an extensive review of the scientific literature and by the elicitation of expert opinion. Overall, this analysis highlighted those captive bustards had a high risk of being exposed to pathogens by wild birds. This risk was higher for Newcastle disease virus than avian influenza virus, and House sparrows represented the riskiest species for the transmission of both viruses through direct exposure from direct contact with an infectious bird that got inside the aviary and indirect exposure from consumption of water contaminated from the faeces of an infected bird that got inside the aviary for Newcastle disease virus and avian influenza virus, respectively. These results also reaffirm the need to implement biosecurity measures to limit contacts between wild and captive birds and highlight priority targets for a thoughtful and efficient sanitary management strategy.

Spatiotemporal risk assessment for avian influenza outbreak based on the dynamics of habitat suitability for wild birds.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has predominantly damaged the poultry industry worldwide. The fundamental prevention and control strategy for HPAI includes early detection and timely intervention enforcement through a systematic surveillance system for wild birds based on the ecological understanding of the dynamics of wild birds' movements. Our study aimed to develop a spatiotemporal risk assessment model for avian influenza (AI) infection in wild birds to empower surveillance information for a contingency strategy. For this purpose, first, we predicted the monthly habitat suitability of seven waterfowl species, using 227,671 Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking records of 562 birds from 2014 to 2018 in the Republic of Korea (ROK). Then, that predicted habitat suitability and 421 coordinates of AI detection sites in wild birds were used to build the risk assessment model. Subsequently, we compared the monthly predicted risk of avian influenza virus (AIv) identification in wild birds between case and non-case poultry farms with HPAI H5N6 outbreak in the ROK between 2016 and 2017. The results reported considerable variation of monthly habitat suitability of seven waterfowls and the impact of predicting AI occurrences in wild birds. The high habitat suitability for spot-billed ducks (contribution rate in November = 40.9%) and mallards (contribution rate in January = 34.3%) significantly contributed to predicting the average risk of AIv identification in wild birds, with high predictive performance [the monthly mean of area under the curve (AUC) = 0.978]. Moreover, our model showed that the averaged risk of identification AI in wild birds was significantly higher in HPAI infected premises, with infected domestic duck holdings exhibiting a significantly higher risk than the chicken farms in November. This study suggests that animal health authority establishes a risk-based HPAI surveillance system grounded on the ecological nature of wild birds to improve the effectiveness of prevention and preparedness of emerging epidemics.

Risk Assessment for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N6/H5N8) Clade 2.3.4.4 Viruses.

The numerous global outbreaks and continuous reassortments of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N6/H5N8) clade 2.3.4.4 viruses in birds pose a major risk to the public health. We investigated the tropism and innate host responses of 5 recent HPAI A(H5N6/H5N8) avian isolates of clades 2.3.4.4b, e, and h in human airway organoids and primary human alveolar epithelial cells. The HPAI A(H5N6/H5N8) avian isolates replicated productively but with lower competence than the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, HPAI A(H5N1), and HPAI A(H5N6) isolates from humans in both or either models. They showed differential cellular tropism in human airway organoids; some infected all 4 major epithelial cell types: ciliated cells, club cells, goblet cells, and basal cells. Our results suggest zoonotic potential but low transmissibility of the HPAI A(H5N6/H5N8) avian isolates among humans. These viruses induced low levels of proinflammatory cytokines/chemokines, which are unlikely to contribute to the pathogenesis of severe disease.

A study of rural chicken farmers, diseases and remedies in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa.

The source of emerging diseases and antimicrobial resistance is of increasing interest to epidemiologists. This paper looks at village chickens as such a source. In addition, infectious diseases constitute a major challenge to the growth and profitability of the rural poultry sector in Sub-Saharan Africa. A serological survey was conducted to estimate the apparent seroprevalence of selected chicken diseases in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa alongside a sociological survey of poultry farmers and the remedies most commonly used to prevent diseases in their flocks. Sera collected from village chickens (n = 1007) in the province were screened for specific antibodies against Newcastle disease (ND), avian influenza (AI), avian infectious bronchitis (IB) and Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG). The overall seroprevalence of ND, AI, IB and MG in the province was found to be 69.2 % (95 % CI 51.9-86.5%); 1.8 % (95 % CI 0.2-3.4%); 78.5 % (95 % CI 74.9-82%) and 55.8 % (95 % CI 41.3-70.3%) respectively with clustering found at the District level. Cross hemagglutination inhibition (HI) tests indicated that the chickens were exposed to the ND vaccine. AI ELISA-positive samples were tested using HIs against the H5, H6 and H7-subtypes, but only H6-specific antibodies were detected. Avian influenza strains shared the common ancestor responsible for the 2002 chicken outbreak in KwaZulu-Natal Province. The majority of chicken farmers were females and pensioners (69 % and 66.1 % respectively) and had a primary school education (47.1 %). Traditional remedies were commonly used by farmers (47.15 %) and among the remedies, Aloe plant (Aloe ferox Mill.) or ikhala (Xhosa) was the most commonly used product (28.23 %) for preventing and reducing mortalities among village chickens. The findings stress the importance of village chickens as a substitute for social welfare and highlight the exposure of village chickens to important chicken pathogens. The economic impact of these pathogens on the development of this sub-sector needs further investigation. Village chickens are a potential source of virulent Newcastle disease virus (NDV) because of the lack of vaccination and biosecurity. They may serve as amplification hosts which increases the probability that virulent NDV could spill over into commercial poultry flocks due to large amounts of circulating virus. The zoonotic threat of circulating H6N2 viruses raise concern due to their mutation and reassortment among chickens and a potential movement of infected birds within the province. Finally, the use of antibiotics by untrained chicken farmers constitute another major concern as it could serve as a source of antimicrobial resistance (AMR).

A quantitative risk assessment to evaluate the efficacy of mitigation strategies to reduce highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, subtype H5N1 (HPAI H5N1) in the Menoufia governorate, Egypt.

BACKGROUND: The poultry industry in Egypt has been suffering from endemic highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus, subtype H5N1 since 2006. However, the emergence of H9N2, H5N8, and H5N2 in 2011, 2016, and 2019 respectively, has aggravated the situation. Our objective was to evaluate how effective are the mitigation strategies by a Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) model which used daily outbreak data of HPAI-H5N1 subtype in Egypt, stratified by different successive epidemic waves from 2006 to 2016. RESULTS: By applying the epidemiologic problem-oriented approach methodology, a conceptual scenario tree was drawn based on the knowledgebase. Monte Carlo simulations of QRA parameters based on outbreak data were performed using @Risk software based on a scenario-driven decision tree. In poultry farms, the expected probability of HPAI H5N1 prevalence is 48% due to failure of mitigation strategies in 90% of the time during Monte Carlo simulations. Failure of efficacy of these mitigations will raise prevalence to 70% with missed vaccination, while failure in detection by surveillance activities will raise it to 99%. In backyard poultry farms, the likelihood of still having a high HPAI-H5N1 prevalence in different poultry types due to failure of passive and active surveillance varies between domestic, mixed and reservoir. In mixed poultry, the probability of HPAI-H5N1 not detected by surveillance was the highest with a mean and a SD of 16.8 × 10-3 and 3.26 × 10-01 respectively. The sensitivity analysis ranking for the likelihood of HPAI-H5N1 in poultry farms due to missed vaccination, failure to be detected by passive and active surveillance was examined. Among poultry farms, increasing vaccination by 1 SD will decrease the prevalence by 14%, while active and passive surveillance decreases prevalence by 12, and 6%, respectively. In backyard, the active surveillance had high impact in decreasing the prevalence by 16% in domestic chicken. Whereas the passive surveillance had less impact in decreasing prevalence by 14% in mixed poultry and 3% in domestic chicken. CONCLUSION: It could be concluded that the applied strategies were not effective in controlling the spread of the HPAI-H5N1 virus. Public health officials should take into consideration the evaluation of their control strategies in their response.

Pathogenic assessment of avian influenza viruses in migratory birds.

ABSTRACTSeveral subtypes of avian influenza (AI) viruses have caused human infections in recent years; however, there is a severe knowledge gap regarding the capacity of wild bird viruses to infect mammals. To assess the risk of mammalian infection by AI viruses from their natural reservoirs, a panel of isolates from 34 wild birds was examined in animal models. All selected AI virus subtypes were found to predominantly possess Eurasian lineage, although reassortment with North American lineage AI viruses was also noted in some isolates. When used to infect chickens, 20 AI isolates could be recovered from oropharyngeal swabs at 5 days post-infection (dpi) without causing significant morbidity. Similarly, mild to no observable disease was observed in mice infected with these viruses although the majority replicated efficiently in murine lungs. As expected, wild bird AI isolates were found to recognize avian-like receptors, while a few strains also exhibited detectable human-like receptor binding. Selected strains were further tested in ferrets, and 15 out of 20 were found to shed the virus in the upper respiratory tract until 5 dpi. Overall, we demonstrate that a diversity of low-pathogenic AI viruses carried by wild migratory birds have the capacity to infect land-based poultry and mammalian hosts while causing minimal signs of clinical disease. This study reiterates that there is a significant capacity for interspecies transmission of AI viruses harboured by wild aquatic birds. Thus, these viruses pose a significant threat to human health underscoring the need for continued surveillance.

Quantitative risk assessment of the introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza H5 and H7 strains into Poland via legal import of live poultry.

Low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) caused by H5 and H7 viruses is considered a threatening disease for poultry production due to the possibility of prolonged undetected virus circulation in a poultry flock and its potential to mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). The occurrence of HPAI may have devastating impact on the poultry industry and has serious economic consequences. The possibility of LPAI virus (LPAIV) being introduced into Poland via import of live poultry from EU countries was considered. The main aim of the study was to quantitatively assess the probability of LPAIV H5 and H7 introduction into Poland (PLPAI) via this pathway, to evaluate the relative contribution of exporting countries and species of poultry to this probability and to present the spatial distribution of the introduction probability in Poland. To this end, a stochastic multilevel binomial risk model, taking into account uncertainty and variability of input parameter values, was developed. The results of this model indicate that the mean annual probability of LPAIV H5 or H7 introduction into Poland is 0.088 [95 % uncertainty interval: 0.0575, 0.128], which corresponds to, on average, one outbreak every 11 years. The countries contributing most to this probability are Germany, Czech Republic and Denmark. Importations of ducks, chickens and turkeys contribute most to PLPAI, whereas importations of geese and guinea fowl represent a minor risk. The probability of LPAIV introduction is not equally distributed across Poland with the majority of counties having a high probability of LPAIV introduction being located in the Western part of the country. The results of this study can be used to support decision makers on targeted prevention or risk-based surveillance strategies for LPAI.

Different intervention strategies toward live poultry markets against avian influenza A (H7N9) virus: Model-based assessment.

BACKGROUND: Different interventions targeting live poultry markets (LPMs) are applied in China for controlling avian influenza A (H7N9), including LPM closure and "1110" policy (i.e., daily cleaning, weekly disinfection, monthly rest day, zero poultry stock overnight). However, the interventions' effectiveness has not been comprehensively assessed. METHODS: Based on the available data (including reported cases, domestic poultry volume, and climate) collected in Guangdong Province between October 2013 and June 2017, we developed a new compartmental model that enabled us to infer H7N9 transmission dynamics. The model incorporated the intrinsic interplay among humans and poultry as well as the impacts of absolute humidity and LPM intervention, in which intervention strategies were parameterized and estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo method. RESULTS: There were 258 confirmed human H7N9 cases in Guangdong during the study period. If without interventions, the number would reach 646 (95%CI, 575-718) cases. Temporal, seasonal and permanent closures of LPMs can substantially reduce transmission risk, which might respectively reduce human infections by 67.2% (95%CI, 64.3%-70.1%), 75.6% (95%CI, 73.8%-77.5%), 86.6% (95%CI, 85.7-87.6%) in total four epidemic seasons, and 81.9% (95%CI, 78.7%-85.2%), 91.5% (95%CI, 89.9%-93.1%), 99.0% (95%CI, 98.7%-99.3%) in the last two epidemic seasons. Moreover, implementing the "1110" policy from 2014 to 2017 would reduce the cases by 34.1% (95%CI, 20.1%-48.0%), suggesting its limited role in preventing H7N9 transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Our study quantified the effects of different interventions and execution time toward LPMs for controlling H7N9 transmission. The results highlighted the importance of closing LPMs during epidemic period, and supported permanent closure as a long-term plan.

Disease Outbreak, Health Scare, and Distance Decay: Evidence from HPAI Shocks in Chinese Meat Sector.

Background: During zoonotic disease shocks (ZDSs), zoonotic disease outbreaks (ZDOs) can induce public health scares (PHSs), causing meat price risks (MPRs). Nevertheless, spatial spillovers of zoonotic disease shocks in meat markets remain unclear. We explore how zoonotic disease outbreaks and public health scares locally and spatially spill over to meat price risks, and whether spatial spillovers of public health scares decay with distance. Methods: (i) We construct a long panel covering 30 provinces and 121 months, using highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) epidemics as exogenous shocks in Chinese meat sector. (ii) We decompose zoonotic disease shocks into zoonotic disease outbreaks (objective incident) and public health scares (subjective information) and examine their spillovers to meat price risks. (iii) We identify distance-decaying spatial spillovers of public health scares, by running our dynamic SAR models 147 times, from 80 km to 3000 km with 20 km as incremental value, in a setting with risk-level heterogeneity. Results: (i) Zoonotic disease outbreaks themselves only cause local and neighboring meat price risks for high-risk meat, not for low-risk or substitute meat. (ii) Public health scares exacerbate local and neighboring meat price risks for high-risk and low-risk meat, and local meat price risks for substitute meat. (iii) Spatial spillovers of public health scares are distance-decaying and U-shaped, with four spatial attenuation boundaries, and distance turning point is shorter for high-risk meat (500 km) than for low-risk meat (800 km). Conclusions: We complement the literature by arguing that health scares induced by disease outbreaks negatively spill over to meat prices, with U-shaped distance-decaying spatial effects. This suggests low interregional spatial market integration in meat products, due to distance decay of nonstandardized information and local government control effects, across provincial boundaries. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to document nonmonotonic distance decay of health scare effects on food prices, previously not found by the literature.

Development and Assessment of Two Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N6 Candidate Vaccine Viruses for Pandemic Preparedness.

OBJECTIVE: In China, 24 cases of human infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N6 virus have been confirmed since the first confirmed case in 2014. Therefore, we developed and assessed two H5N6 candidate vaccine viruses (CVVs). METHODS: In accordance with the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations, we constructed two reassortant viruses using reverse genetics (RG) technology to match the two different epidemic H5N6 viruses. We performed complete genome sequencing to determine the genetic stability. We assessed the growth ability of the studied viruses in MDCK cells and conducted a hemagglutination inhibition assay to analyze their antigenicity. Pathogenicity attenuation was also evaluated in vitro and in vivo. RESULTS: The results showed that no mutations occurred in hemagglutinin or neuraminidase, and both CVVs retained their original antigenicity. The replication capacity of the two CVVs reached a level similar to that of A/Puerto Rico/8/34 in MDCK cells. The two CVVs showed low pathogenicity in vitro and in vivo, which are in line with the WHO requirements for CVVs. CONCLUSION: We obtained two genetically stable CVVs of HPAI H5N6 with high growth characteristics, which may aid in our preparedness for a potential H5N6 pandemic.

Qualitative risk assessment of transmission pathways of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus at live poultry markets in Dhaka city, Bangladesh.

Analysis of environmental samples obtained from the Live Poultry Markets (LPMs) of Dhaka City, Bangladesh, has revealed that the highest degree of prevalence of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (HPAI, H5N1), besides other subtypes of the LPAI virus, poses the plausible risk of transmission of these viruses between human and poultry species. The present study was conducted using the OIE risk analysis framework to assess the risk level of each pathway successively. The estimated risk parameters were integrated towards to obtain the overall risk level for each specific HPAI transmission pathway using the matrix adapted by Cristobel Zepeda accompanying other expert consultations. The relevant data obtained from published and unpublished sources, together with survey data of field observations, were used to formulate and confirm the risk pathways and their associated risks. The results revealed that the risk of the release of the HPAI virus was medium when exposure was high. Additionally, the consequence would be considered very high with a medium degree of uncertainty for all parameters. Ultimately, the overall risk for transmission was estimated as medium with a medium degree of uncertainty. The findings of this study reveal that there is a significant threat that HPAI virus transmission could occur among poultry and humans and effectively sustain within the environment of the LPMs. Our findings are primarily focused on public health considerations, the hygienic slaughter of poultry and the relevant cleaning and sanitation practices conducted in the LPMs to support evidence-based decision-making processes. The findings of the study have the potential to be used to formulate effective risk reduction measures and can be further adapted in low-resource settings without major infrastructural changes required of the LPMs. All of which would reduce the risk of HPAI virus release and further lessen the degree of exposure and transmission in established LPMs.