Percutaneous Revascularization for Ischemic Left Ventricular Dysfunction.

BACKGROUND: Whether revascularization by percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) can improve event-free survival and left ventricular function in patients with severe ischemic left ventricular systolic dysfunction, as compared with optimal medical therapy (i.e., individually adjusted pharmacologic and device therapy for heart failure) alone, is unknown. METHODS: We randomly assigned patients with a left ventricular ejection fraction of 35% or less, extensive coronary artery disease amenable to PCI, and demonstrable myocardial viability to a strategy of either PCI plus optimal medical therapy (PCI group) or optimal medical therapy alone (optimal-medical-therapy group). The primary composite outcome was death from any cause or hospitalization for heart failure. Major secondary outcomes were left ventricular ejection fraction at 6 and 12 months and quality-of-life scores. RESULTS: A total of 700 patients underwent randomization - 347 were assigned to the PCI group and 353 to the optimal-medical-therapy group. Over a median of 41 months, a primary-outcome event occurred in 129 patients (37.2%) in the PCI group and in 134 patients (38.0%) in the optimal-medical-therapy group (hazard ratio, 0.99; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78 to 1.27; P = 0.96). The left ventricular ejection fraction was similar in the two groups at 6 months (mean difference, -1.6 percentage points; 95% CI, -3.7 to 0.5) and at 12 months (mean difference, 0.9 percentage points; 95% CI, -1.7 to 3.4). Quality-of-life scores at 6 and 12 months appeared to favor the PCI group, but the difference had diminished at 24 months. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with severe ischemic left ventricular systolic dysfunction who received optimal medical therapy, revascularization by PCI did not result in a lower incidence of death from any cause or hospitalization for heart failure. (Funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research Health Technology Assessment Program; REVIVED-BCIS2 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01920048.).

Quantitative Bias Analysis of the Association between Occupational Radiation Exposure and Ischemic Heart Disease Mortality in UK Nuclear Workers.

The scientific question of whether protracted low-dose or low-dose-rate exposure to external radiation is causally related to the risk of circulatory disease continues to be an important issue for radiation protection. Previous analyses of a matched case-control dataset nested in a large cohort of UK nuclear fuel cycle workers indicated that there was little evidence that observed associations between external radiation dose and ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality risk [OR = 1.35 (95% CI: 0.99-1.84) for 15-year-lagged exposure] could alternatively be explained by confounding from pre-employment tobacco smoking, BMI or blood pressure, or from socioeconomic status or occupational exposure to excessive noise or shiftwork. To improve causal inference about the observed external radiation dose and IHD mortality association, we estimated the potential magnitude and direction of non-random errors, incorporated sensitivity analyses and simulated bias effects under plausible scenarios. We conducted quantitative bias analyses of plausible scenarios based on 1,000 Monte Carlo samples to explore the impact of exposure measurement error, missing information on tobacco smoking, and unmeasured confounding, and assessed whether observed associations were reliant on the inclusion of specific matched pairs using bootstrapping with 10% of matched pairs randomly excluded in 1,000 samples. We further explored the plausibility that having been monitored for internal exposure, which was an important confounding factor in the case-control analysis for which models were adjusted, was indeed a confounding factor or whether it might have been the result of some form of selection bias. Consistent with the broader epidemiological evidence-base, these analyses provide further evidence that the dose-response association between cumulative external radiation exposure and IHD mortality is non-linear in that it has a linear shape plateauing at an excess risk of 43% (95% CI: 7-92%) on reaching 390 mSv. Analyses of plausible scenarios of patterns of missing data for tobacco smoking at start of employment indicated that this resulted in relatively little bias towards the null in the original analysis. An unmeasured confounder would have had to have been highly correlated (rp > 0.60) with cumulative external radiation dose to importantly bias observed associations. The confounding effect of "having been monitored for internal dose" was unlikely to have been a true confounder in a biological sense, but instead may have been some unknown factor related to differences over time and between sites in selection criteria for internal monitoring, possibly resulting in collider bias. Plausible patterns of exposure measurement error negatively biased associations regardless of the modeled scenario, but did not importantly change the shape of the observed dose-response associations. These analyses provide additional support for the hypothesis that the observed association between external radiation exposure and IHD mortality may be causal.

Area Deprivation Index and Cardiac Readmissions: Evaluating Risk-Prediction in an Electronic Health Record.

Background Assessment of the social determinants of post-hospital cardiac care is needed. We examined the association and predictive ability of neighborhood-level determinants (area deprivation index, ADI), readmission risk, and mortality for heart failure, myocardial ischemia, and atrial fibrillation. Methods and Results Using a retrospective (January 1, 2011-December 31, 2018) analysis of a large healthcare system, we assess the predictive ability of ADI on 30-day and 1-year readmission and mortality following hospitalization. Cox proportional hazards models analyzed time-to-event. Log rank analyses determined survival. C-statistic and net reclassification index determined the model's discriminative power. Covariates included age, sex, race, comorbidity, number of medications, length of stay, and insurance. The cohort (n=27 694) had a median follow-up of 46.5 months. There were 14 469 (52.2%) men and 25 219 White (91.1%) patients. Patients in the highest ADI quintile (versus lowest) were more likely to be admitted within 1 year of index heart failure admission (hazard ratio [HR], 1.25; 95% CI, 1.03‒1.51). Patients with myocardial ischemia in the highest ADI quintile were twice as likely to be readmitted at 1 year (HR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.44‒2.91]). Patients with atrial fibrillation living in areas with highest ADI were less likely to be admitted within 1 year (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.65‒0.95). As ADI increased, risk of readmission increased, and risk reclassification was improved with ADI in the models. Patients in the highest ADI quintile were 25% more likely to die within a year (HR, 1.25 1.08‒1.44). Conclusions Residence in socioeconomically disadvantaged communities predicts rehospitalization and mortality. Measuring neighborhood deprivation can identify individuals at risk following cardiac hospitalization.

Lipid Management in Patients Presenting With Acute Coronary Syndromes: A Review.

Despite many improvements in its prevention and management, acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed world. Lipid management is an important part of secondary prevention after ACS, but many patients currently remain undertreated and do not attain guideline-recommended levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction. This review details the current state of evidence on lipid management in patients presenting with ACS, provides directions for identification of patients who may benefit from early escalation of lipid-lowering therapy, and discusses novel lipid-lowering medication that is currently under investigation in clinical trials. Moreover, a treatment algorithm aimed at attaining guideline-recommended low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels is proposed. Despite important advances in the initial treatment and secondary prevention of ACS, ≈20% of ACS survivors experience a subsequent ischemic cardiovascular event within 24 months, and 5-year mortality ranges from 19% to 22%. Knowledge of the current state of evidence-based lipid management after ACS is of paramount importance to improve outcomes after ACS.

NCD Countdown 2030: pathways to achieving Sustainable Development Goal target 3.4.

The Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 is to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by a third by 2030 relative to 2015 levels, and to promote mental health and wellbeing. We used data on cause-specific mortality to characterise the risk and trends in NCD mortality in each country and evaluate combinations of reductions in NCD causes of death that can achieve SDG target 3.4. Among NCDs, ischaemic heart disease is responsible for the highest risk of premature death in more than half of all countries for women, and more than three-quarters for men. However, stroke, other cardiovascular diseases, and some cancers are associated with a similar risk, and in many countries, a higher risk of premature death than ischaemic heart disease. Although premature mortality from NCDs is declining in most countries, for most the pace of change is too slow to achieve SDG target 3.4. To investigate the options available to each country for achieving SDG target 3.4, we considered different scenarios, each representing a combination of fast (annual rate achieved by the tenth best performing percentile of all countries) and average (median of all countries) declines in risk of premature death from NCDs. Pathways analysis shows that every country has options for achieving SDG target 3.4. No country could achieve the target by addressing a single disease. In at least half the countries, achieving the target requires improvements in the rate of decline in at least five causes for women and in at least seven causes for men to the same rate achieved by the tenth best performing percentile of all countries. Tobacco and alcohol control and effective health-system interventions-including hypertension and diabetes treatment; primary and secondary cardiovascular disease prevention in high-risk individuals; low-dose inhaled corticosteroids and bronchodilators for asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; treatment of acute cardiovascular diseases, diabetes complications, and exacerbations of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; and effective cancer screening and treatment-will reduce NCD causes of death necessary to achieve SDG target 3.4 in most countries.

Equity impacts of interventions to increase physical activity among older adults: a quantitative health impact assessment.

BACKGROUND: Behavioural interventions may increase social inequalities in health. This study aimed to project the equity impact of physical activity interventions that have differential effectiveness across education groups on the long-term health inequalities by education and gender among older adults in Germany. METHODS: We created six intervention scenarios targeting the elderly population: Scenarios #1-#4 applied realistic intervention effects that varied by education (low, medium high). Under scenario #5, all older adults adapted the physical activity pattern of those with a high education. Under scenario #6, all increased their physical activity level to the recommended 300 min weekly. The number of incident ischemic heart disease, stroke and diabetes cases as well as deaths from all causes under each of these six intervention scenarios was simulated for males and females over a 10-year projection period using the DYNAMO-HIA tool. Results were compared against a reference-scenario with unchanged physical activity. RESULTS: Under scenarios #1-#4, approximately 3589-5829 incident disease cases and 6248-10,320 deaths could be avoided among males over a 10-year projection period, as well as 4381-7163 disease cases and 6914-12,605 deaths among females. The highest reduction for males would be achieved under scenario #4, under which the intervention is most effective for those with a high education level. Scenario #4 realizes 2.7 and 2.4% of the prevented disease cases and deaths observed under scenario #6, while increasing inequalities between education groups. In females, the highest reduction would be achieved under scenario #3, under which the intervention is most effective amongst those with low levels of education. This scenario realizes 2.7 and 2.9% of the prevented disease cases and deaths under scenario #6, while decreasing inequalities between education groups. Under scenario #5, approximately 31,687 incident disease cases and 59,068 deaths could be prevented among males over a 10-year projection period, as well as 59,173 incident disease cases and 121,689 deaths among females. This translates to 14.4 and 22.2% of the prevented diseases cases among males and females under scenario #6, and 13.7 and 27.7% of the prevented deaths under scenario #6. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows how the overall population health impact varies depending on how the intervention-induced physical activity change differs across education groups. For decision-makers, both the assessment of health impacts overall as well as within a population is relevant as interventions with the greatest population health gain might be accompanied by an unintended increase in health inequalities.

Epigenetic measures of ageing predict the prevalence and incidence of leading causes of death and disease burden.

BACKGROUND: Individuals of the same chronological age display different rates of biological ageing. A number of measures of biological age have been proposed which harness age-related changes in DNA methylation profiles. These measures include five 'epigenetic clocks' which provide an index of how much an individual's biological age differs from their chronological age at the time of measurement. The five clocks encompass methylation-based predictors of chronological age (HorvathAge, HannumAge), all-cause mortality (DNAm PhenoAge, DNAm GrimAge) and telomere length (DNAm Telomere Length). A sixth epigenetic measure of ageing differs from these clocks in that it acts as a speedometer providing a single time-point measurement of the pace of an individual's biological ageing. This measure of ageing is termed DunedinPoAm. In this study, we test the association between these six epigenetic measures of ageing and the prevalence and incidence of the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in high-income countries (n ≤ 9537, Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study). RESULTS: DNAm GrimAge predicted incidence of clinically diagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), type 2 diabetes and ischemic heart disease after 13 years of follow-up (hazard ratios = 2.22, 1.52 and 1.41, respectively). DunedinPoAm predicted the incidence of COPD and lung cancer (hazard ratios = 2.02 and 1.45, respectively). DNAm PhenoAge predicted incidence of type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio = 1.54). DNAm Telomere Length associated with the incidence of ischemic heart disease (hazard ratio = 0.80). DNAm GrimAge associated with all-cause mortality, the prevalence of COPD and spirometry measures at the study baseline. These associations were present after adjusting for possible confounding risk factors including alcohol consumption, body mass index, deprivation, education and tobacco smoking and surpassed stringent Bonferroni-corrected significance thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that epigenetic measures of ageing may have utility in clinical settings to complement gold-standard methods for disease assessment and management.

Higher Density of Primary Care Facilities Is Inversely Associated with Ischemic Heart Disease Mortality, but Not with Stroke Mortality: A Japanese Secondary Medical Service Area Level Ecological Count Data.

Poor accessibility to physicians might be linked to the inadequate control of cardiovascular risk factors. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the accessibility of primary care physicians was related to a lower incidence of ischemic heart disease and stroke mortality via ecological data analyses of both primary care facility density and internal physician density. The unit of observation was the Japanese secondary medical service area, the basic unit for healthcare planning and administration. A primary care facility was defined as a clinic or medical institution with less than 200 inpatient beds, whose specialty included internal medicine. The number of primary care facilities per 10,000 population and the number of internal physicians per 10,000 population were used as explanatory variables. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to analyze the relative risks (RR) of primary care facility density and internal physician density using the socioeconomic confounders of designated emergency hospitals, natural log-transformed population density, birth rate, secondary and tertiary industrial workers, and taxable income. In multivariate models for ischemic heart disease mortality, primary care facility density was significantly related to the total population (RR = 0.986, 95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.979-0.993), men (RR = 0.988, 95% CrI: 0.981-0.996), and women (RR = 0.986, 95% CrI: 0.979-0.993). No significant results were obtained for internal physician density. In the multivariate models for stroke mortality, neither primary care facility density nor internal physician density showed any significant effects. Increasing primary care facility density may reduce ischemic heart disease mortality.

Hypotheses, rationale, design, and methods for prognostic evaluation of a randomized comparison between patients with coronary artery disease associated with ischemic cardiomyopathy who undergo medical or surgical treatment: MASS-VI (HF).

BACKGROUND: Ischemic cardiomyopathy and severe left ventricular dysfunction are well established to represent the main determinants of poor survival and premature death compared with preserved ventricular function. However, the role of myocardial revascularization as a therapeutic alternative is not known to improve the long-term prognosis in this group of patients. This study will investigate whether myocardial revascularization contributes to a better prognosis for patients compared with those treated with drugs alone and followed over the long term. METHODS: The study will include 600 patients with coronary artery disease associated with ischemic cardiomyopathy. The surgical or drug therapy option will be randomized, and the events considered for analysis will be all-cause mortality, nonfatal infarction, unstable angina requiring additional revascularization, and stroke. The events will be analyzed according to the intent-to-treat principle. Patients with multivessel coronary disease and left ventricular ejection fraction measurements of less than 35% will be included. In addition, myocardial ischemia will be documented by myocardial scintigraphy. Markers of myocardial necrosis will be checked at admission and after the procedure. DISCUSSION: The role of myocardial revascularization (CABG) in the treatment of patients with coronary artery disease and heart failure is not clearly established. The surgical option of revascularizing the myocardium is a procedure designed to reduce the load of myocardial hibernation in patients with heart failure caused by coronary artery disease. On the other hand, the assessment of myocardial viability is frequently used to identify patients with left ventricular ischemic dysfunction in which CABG may add survival benefit. However, the effectiveness of this option is uncertain. The great difficulty in establishing the efficacy of surgical intervention is based on the understanding of viability without ischemia. Thus, this study will include only patients with viable and truly ischemic myocardium to correct this anomaly. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Evaluation of a randomized comparison between patients with coronary artery disease associated with ischemic cardiomyopathy submitted to medical or surgical treatment: MASS-VI (HF), ISRCTN77449548, Oct 10th, 2019 (retrospectively registered).

The effect of the economic collapse in Iceland on the probability of cardiovascular events.

After several years of a booming economy in Iceland, the economic bubble burst in 2008 and affected most Icelanders in one way or another. We explore whether the economic collapse in 2008 and subsequent economic crisis affected the probability of ischemic heart disease (IHD) events, independent of regular cyclical effects that can be attributed to typical economic conditions. Moreover, we conduct a mediation analysis to study the potential mechanisms through which the relationship between the economic collapse and cardiovascular health travels. We estimate linear probability models using administrative data on IHD events, earnings and balance-sheet status, as well as unemployment for all Icelanders aged 16 and older in 2000-2014. We find that the sharp change in economic conditions in 2008 increased the probability of cardiovascular events in both males and females in the long term. In absolute terms, these effects were small in magnitude but often statistically significant, amounting to approximately 13-16 extra cases of IHD events in each of the two years following the collapse for males and 3-5 addition cases for females. Moreover, they contrast with the finding that general business-cycle fluctuations operated in the opposite direction. Several potential mediators were correlated with the probability of IHD events, but their inclusion had little impact on the estimated effects of the economic crisis. A statistically significant business-cycle effect is found for both genders indicating that in general, harder economic times are beneficial for heart health. Thus, the general business cycle and the economic collapse in 2008 and subsequent crisis can be thought of as separate phenomena with differing effects on IHD.

Projections of the effects of global warming on the disease burden of ischemic heart disease in the elderly in Tianjin, China.

BACKGROUND: Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is one of the leading causes of deaths worldwide and causes a tremendous disease burden. Temperature is an important environmental determinant among the many risk factors for IHD. However, the emerging temperature-related health risks of IHD in the elderly is limited because of the lack of estimates that integrate global warming and demographic change. METHODS: Data on daily IHD deaths in the elderly aged ≥65 years and meteorological conditions were collected in Tianjin, a megacity of China, from 2006 to 2011. First, the baseline relationship between the temperature and years of life lost (YLL) from IHD was established. Then, future assessments were performed in combination with temperature projections for 19 global-scale climate models (GCMs) under 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the 2050s and 2070s. RESULTS: Increased YLL from IHD in the elderly was found to be associated with future ambient temperatures. The annual temperature-related YLL from IHD in the 2050s and 2070s were higher than the baseline. For instance, increases of 4.5, 14.9 and 38.3% were found under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, in the 2070s. The most significant increases occurred in warm season months. The increase in heat-related YLL will not be completely offset, even with the 25% adaptation assumed. When considering demographic change, the temperature-related disease burden of IHD in the elderly will be exacerbated by 158.4 to 196.6% under 3 RCPs in the 2050s and 2070s relative to the baseline. CONCLUSIONS: These findings have significant meaning for environmental and public health policy making and interventions towards the important issue of the health impacts of global warming on the elderly.

Medical Therapy Utilization and Long-Term Outcomes Following Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Five-Year Results From the Veterans Affairs Clinical Assessment, Reporting, and Tracking System Program.

BACKGROUND: Optimal medical therapy is endorsed by national guidelines in the management of ischemic heart disease; however, few studies have examined its long-term utilization following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and association with clinical outcomes. We sought to assess longitudinal trends in medical therapy use after PCI and its prognostic significance. METHODS AND RESULTS: From the Veteran Affairs Clinical Assessment, Reporting, and Tracking System Program, we retrospectively identified 57 900 Veteran's Affairs patients undergoing PCI from January 2005 to May 2014. Using prescription fill dates, the utilization of 4 classes of medical therapy including statins, ß-blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers, P2Y12 inhibitors, and their composites were assessed at discharge, 6 months, 1, 3, and 5 years post-PCI. Multivariable Cox regression models were developed to assess the association between medical therapy status and major adverse cardiovascular events, defined as all-cause mortality, rehospitalization for myocardial infarction, rehospitalization for stroke, or repeat revascularization. At discharge following PCI, 58.3% of patients received all 4 classes of medical therapy. Utilization of statins, ß-blockers, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers decreased from 89%, 84.9%, and 72.2% on discharge, respectively, to 72.7%, 67.9%, and 57.9% at 5 years. Prescription refills of P2Y12 inhibitors declined from 96.5% on discharge to 28.3% at 5 years, driven by a large decline in P2Y12 inhibitor use after 1 year. Use of each class of medical therapy, and its composite use, was associated with a significant reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events at 5 years, with the largest effect size seen by the use of statins (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.75-0.79; P<0.0001) and P2Y12 inhibitors (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.79-0.85; P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Consistent declines in medical therapy use following PCI were observed over time, which is associated with worse outcomes. Further efforts are needed to promote long-term adherence to secondary prevention therapies after revascularization.

Estimating the pattern of causes of death in Papua New Guinea.

BACKGROUND: Papua New Guinea (PNG) is a diverse country with high mortality and evidence of increased prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), but there is no reliable cause of death (COD) data because civil registration is insufficient and routine health data comprise only a small proportion of deaths. This study aims to estimate cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) for five broad groups of causes (endemic infections, emerging infections, endemic NCDs, emerging NCDs and injuries), by sex for each of PNG's provinces. METHODS: CSMFs are calculated as the average of estimates obtained from: (1) Empirical cause method: Utilising available Verbal Autopsy (VA) data and Discharge Health Information System (DHIS) data, and applying statistical models of community versus facility CODs; and (2) Expected cause patterns method: Utilising existing estimates of mortality levels in each province and statistical models of the relationship between all-cause and cause-specific mortality using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data. RESULTS: An estimated 41% of male and 49% of female deaths in PNG are due to infectious, maternal (female only), neonatal and nutritional causes. Furthermore, 45% of male and 42% of female deaths arise from NCDs. Infectious diseases, maternal, neonatal and nutritional conditions account for more than half the deaths in a number of provinces, including lower socioeconomic status provinces of Gulf and Sandaun, while provinces with higher CSMFs from emerging NCDs (e.g. ischemic heart disease, stroke) tend to be those where socioeconomic status is comparatively high (e.g. National Capital District, Western Highlands Province, Manus Province, New Ireland Province and East New Britain Province). Provinces with the highest estimated proportion of deaths from emerging infectious diseases are readily accessible by road and have the highest rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), while provinces with the highest CSMFs from endemic infectious, maternal, neonatal and nutritional causes are geographically isolated, have high malaria and high all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Infectious, maternal, neonatal and nutritional causes continue to be an important COD in PNG, and are likely to be higher than what is estimated by the GBD. Nonetheless, there is evidence of the emergence of NCDs in provinces with higher socioeconomic status. The introduction of routine VA for non-facility deaths should improve COD data quality to support health policy and planning to control both infectious and NCDs.

Incidence, Predictors, and Outcomes of Acute Ischemic Stroke Following Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to assess temporal trends in the incidence of ischemic stroke among patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), predictors of post-PCI ischemic stroke, and the impact of post-PCI ischemic stroke on in-hospital morbidity, mortality, length of stay, and cost. BACKGROUND: Data on the incidence and outcomes of ischemic stroke in patients undergoing PCI in the contemporary era are limited. METHODS: The National Inpatient Sample was used to identify patients who underwent PCI between January 1, 2003, and December 31, 2016. The incidence of post-PCI ischemic stroke was calculated, and its predictors were assessed. In-hospital outcomes of patients with and those without post-PCI stroke were also compared. RESULTS: The adjusted incidence of post-PCI ischemic stroke increased during the study period from 0.6% to 0.96% following PCI for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, from 0.5% to 0.6% following PCI for non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, and from 0.3% to 0.72% following PCI for unstable angina or stable ischemic disease (ptrend <0.001). Carotid disease, cardiogenic shock, atrial fibrillation, and older age were the strongest predictors of post-PCI ischemic stroke. Post-PCI stroke rates were lower at high-volume versus low- to intermediate-volume centers. Thrombolytics, cerebral angiography, and mechanical thrombectomy use increased over time but remained infrequent. After propensity score matching, in-hospital mortality was higher among patients with post-PCI stroke (23.5% vs. 11.0%, 9.5% vs. 2.8%, and 11.5% vs. 2.4% in the ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, and unstable angina or stable ischemic heart disease cohorts, respectively; p < 0.001). Post-PCI stroke was associated with a >2-fold increase in length of stay, a >3-fold increase in nonhome discharges, and a >60% increase in cost. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of post-PCI ischemic stroke increased significantly over the past decade, partially because of the increasing complexity of patients undergoing PCI over time. Further studies are needed to systematically assess contributors to this worrisome trend and to identify effective strategies for its mitigation.

Mortality, morbidity, and risk factors in China and its provinces, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Public health is a priority for the Chinese Government. Evidence-based decision making for health at the province level in China, which is home to a fifth of the global population, is of paramount importance. This analysis uses data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to help inform decision making and monitor progress on health at the province level. METHODS: We used the methods in GBD 2017 to analyse health patterns in the 34 province-level administrative units in China from 1990 to 2017. We estimated all-cause and cause-specific mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), summary exposure values (SEVs), and attributable risk. We compared the observed results with expected values estimated based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). FINDINGS: Stroke and ischaemic heart disease were the leading causes of death and DALYs at the national level in China in 2017. Age-standardised DALYs per 100 000 population decreased by 33·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 29·8 to 37·4) for stroke and increased by 4·6% (-3·3 to 10·7) for ischaemic heart disease from 1990 to 2017. Age-standardised stroke, ischaemic heart disease, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and liver cancer were the five leading causes of YLLs in 2017. Musculoskeletal disorders, mental health disorders, and sense organ diseases were the three leading causes of YLDs in 2017, and high systolic blood pressure, smoking, high-sodium diet, and ambient particulate matter pollution were among the leading four risk factors contributing to deaths and DALYs. All provinces had higher than expected DALYs per 100 000 population for liver cancer, with the observed to expected ratio ranging from 2·04 to 6·88. The all-cause age-standardised DALYs per 100 000 population were lower than expected in all provinces in 2017, and among the top 20 level 3 causes were lower than expected for ischaemic heart disease, Alzheimer's disease, headache disorder, and low back pain. The largest percentage change at the national level in age-standardised SEVs among the top ten leading risk factors was in high body-mass index (185%, 95% UI 113·1 to 247·7]), followed by ambient particulate matter pollution (88·5%, 66·4 to 116·4). INTERPRETATION: China has made substantial progress in reducing the burden of many diseases and disabilities. Strategies targeting chronic diseases, particularly in the elderly, should be prioritised in the expanding Chinese health-care system. FUNDING: China National Key Research and Development Program and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A descriptive medico-legal study of female deaths in cairo governorate, Egypt.

BACKGROUND: Mortality is conditioned by biological, political and social factors, as well as by culturally defined behaviors and attitudes that historically characterize the stage of development of a country or a region. Women are often in great danger, where they should be safest. Violence against women is the most pervasive yet the least recognized human rights violation in the world. It is a profound health problem and femicide, is often the tragic end-point of violence. Females represent more than half of the Egyptian population, however, they remain vulnerable. AIM OF THE STUDY: To describe and analyze data obtained from Zeinhom Morgue records in Cairo, regarding female deaths, throughout two years. To evaluate female deaths regarding age, cause, manner of death, location, perpetrator and motive. To describe the incidence of female homicides and their related injury patterns. To identify the risk factors and nature of violence from victimologic point of view. Finally, to describe the manner of death whether natural, homicidal, suicidal or accidental aiming for early identification of vulnerable females so that actions can be taken to prevent further mortality. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: This is a national two year retrospective descriptive mortuary based study. The study population comprised of all adult females, aged 18 years and older, whose death was suspicious and medico-legal examination was ordered. Each investigation included a detailed case history, investigation, gross examination, histo-pathological and toxicological examinations. Data was collected from autopsy reports, hospital records and police records. From the available data the victim profile was made. RESULTS: All female deaths aged 18 years and older were retrospectively reviewed for 2 years at Zeinhom morgue of Medico-legal Authority from a total of 1858 autopsy cases. The most common manner of death was homicide. The commonest cause of death in homicides was due to sharp traumatic injuries. Natural death was the least common manner of death and ischemic heart disease constituted the commonest cause. Falling from height was the most common method of suicidal related deaths. Regarding poisoned cases, insecticides and carbon monoxide were the most common detected poisons. According to the cause of death (trauma), blunt trauma injuries were the most common. Falling from height constituted the largest percent of cases under this group. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS: Females in the third decade of life with blunt injuries to the head and neck were the majority of adult female autopsies. Homicide was the most common manner of female death using sharp instruments after domestic arguments mainly by a spouse or relative. Accidental death came second mainly due to post-operative complications. In cases of suicide, falling from height was the commonest cause followed by poisoning. These findings could be useful for forensic pathologists and healthcare promoters in predicting and preventing female deaths. Moreover, this emphasizes the need for raising public awareness about the scale of female violence problem in our society. The results of this study indicates that, by not only a strong legal support network, but also by opportunities for economic independency, essential education and awareness, alternative accommodation and a change in attitude and mindset of society, judiciary, legislature, executive, men and most importantly women themselves can lower or even prevent such deaths specially suicidal.

Mortality From Ischemic Heart Disease.

Background Ischemic heart disease (IHD) has been considered the top cause of mortality globally. However, countries differ in their rates and there have been changes over time. Methods and Results We analyzed mortality data submitted to the World Health Organization from 2005 to 2015 by individual countries. We explored patterns in relationships with age, sex, and income and calculated age-standardized mortality rates for each country in addition to crude death rates. In 5 illustrative countries which provided detailed data, we analyzed trends of mortality from IHD and 3 noncommunicable diseases (lung cancer, stroke, and chronic lower respiratory tract diseases) and examined the simultaneous trends in important cardiovascular risk factors. Russia, United States, and Ukraine had the largest absolute numbers of deaths among the countries that provided data. Among 5 illustrative countries (United Kingdom, United States, Brazil, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine), IHD was the top cause of death, but mortality from IHD has progressively decreased from 2005 to 2015. Age-standardized IHD mortality rates per 100 000 people per year were much higher in Ukraine (324) and Kazakhstan (97) than in United States (60), Brazil (54), and the United Kingdom (46), with much less difference in other causes of death. All 5 countries showed a progressive decline in IHD mortality, with a decline in smoking and hypertension and in all cases a rise in obesity and type II diabetes mellitus. Conclusions IHD remains the single largest cause of death in countries of all income groups. Rates are different between countries and are falling in most countries, indicating great potential for further gains. On the horizon, future improvements may become curtailed by increasing hypertension in some developing countries and more importantly global growth in obesity.

Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases in China, 1990-2016: Findings From the 2016 Global Burden of Disease Study.

Importance: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the top cause of death in China. To our knowledge, no consistent and comparable assessments of CVD burden have been produced at subnational levels, and little is understood about the spatial patterns and temporal trends of CVD in China. Objective: To determine the national and province-level burden of CVD from 1990 to 2016 in China. Design, Setting, and Participants: Following the methodology framework and analytical strategies used in the 2016 Global Burden of Disease study, the mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of CVD in the Chinese population were examined by age, sex, and year and according to 10 subcategories. Estimates were produced for all province-level administrative units of mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao. Exposures: Residence in China. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mortality, prevalence, and DALYs of CVD. Results: The annual number of deaths owing to CVD increased from 2.51 million to 3.97 million between 1990 and 2016; the age-standardized mortality rate fell by 28.7%, from 431.6 per 100 000 persons in 1990 to 307.9 per 100 000 in 2016. Prevalent cases of CVD doubled since 1990, reaching nearly 94 million in 2016. The age-standardized prevalence rate of CVD overall increased significantly from 1990 to 2016 by 14.7%, as did rates for ischemic heart disease (19.1%), ischemic stroke (36.6%), cardiomyopathy and myocarditis (23.1%), and endocarditis (26.7%). Substantial reduction in the CVD burden, as measured by age-standardized DALY rate, was observed from 1990 to 2016 nationally, with a greater reduction in women (43.7%) than men (24.7%). There were marked differences in the spatial patterns of mortality, prevalence, and DALYs of CVD overall as well as its main subcategories, including ischemic heart disease, hemorrhagic stroke, and ischemic stroke. The CVD burden appeared to be lower in coastal provinces with higher economic development. The between-province gap in relative burden of CVD increased from 1990 to 2016, with faster decline in economically developed provinces. Conclusions and Relevance: Substantial discrepancies in the total CVD burden and burdens of CVD subcategories have persisted between provinces in China despite a relative decrease in the CVD burden. Geographically targeted considerations are needed to tailor future strategies to enhance CVD health throughout China and in specific provinces.

Comparing Strategies to Prevent Stroke and Ischemic Heart Disease in the Tunisian Population: Markov Modeling Approach Using a Comprehensive Sensitivity Analysis Algorithm.

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models offer the potential to analyze and compare the effectiveness of very different interventions to prevent future cardiovascular disease. We developed a comprehensive Markov model to assess the impact of three interventions to reduce ischemic heart diseases (IHD) and stroke deaths: (i) improved medical treatments in acute phase, (ii) secondary prevention by increasing the uptake of statins, (iii) primary prevention using health promotion to reduce dietary salt consumption. METHODS: We developed and validated a Markov model for the Tunisian population aged 35-94 years old over a 20-year time horizon. We compared the impact of specific treatments for stroke, lifestyle, and primary prevention on both IHD and stroke deaths. We then undertook extensive sensitivity analyses using both a probabilistic multivariate approach and simple linear regression (metamodeling). RESULTS: The model forecast a dramatic mortality rise, with 111,134 IHD and stroke deaths (95% CI 106567 to 115048) predicted in 2025 in Tunisia. The salt reduction offered the potentially most powerful preventive intervention that might reduce IHD and stroke deaths by 27% (-30240 [-30580 to -29900]) compared with 1% for medical strategies and 3% for secondary prevention. The metamodeling highlighted that the initial development of a minor stroke substantially increased the subsequent probability of a fatal stroke or IHD death. CONCLUSIONS: The primary prevention of cardiovascular disease via a reduction in dietary salt consumption appeared much more effective than secondary or tertiary prevention approaches. Our simple but comprehensive model offers a potentially attractive methodological approach that might now be extended and replicated in other contexts and populations.

Sudden natural death behind the wheel: Review of driver deaths and fitness to drive assessment history in Victoria, Australia 2012-2013.

This study reviews the circumstances and medical causes of death of motor vehicle drivers who died in circumstances of sudden illness whilst behind the wheel in Victoria, Australia 2012-13. The driver's fitness to drive assessment history was also examined to identify prevention opportunities. Deaths included in the study were those referred to a panel responsible for determining whether the driver fatality should be included in the official road toll, where prior doubt exists. A research team comprising of forensic physicians examined the case file of each death involving sudden illness. Forty-five driver deaths during the two-year period were reviewed. Ischaemic heart disease was the most common cause of death. Over 80% of drivers were male with a median age of 64 years. While limited medical history was available, significantly impacting study analysis, findings identified minimal opportunity to improve the fitness to drive review process.