The secondary sex ratio in Italy over the past eighty years (1940 to 2019) and potential impact of radiological contamination after atmospheric nuclear testing and after Chernobyl: Temporal change-point analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo.

In Europe, the male to female ratio at birth (secondary sex ratio: SSR; sex odds: SO) is 1.04-1.06, is influenced by many factors and is declining in industrialized countries. This study was carried out to identify possible impacts of fallout by atomic bomb tests or by the Chernobyl event on SSR in Italy. Italy is a country without commercial nuclear power generation for the last four decades and thus nearly free of radiological confounders. Counts of annual male and female live births in Italy are provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) and by the Italian Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT). This study included 57.7 million live births (1940-2019) with overall SSR 1.05829. The Italian SSR trend was modelled with linear and non-linear logistic regression. Trend changes, i.e., periods with level shifts were estimated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Two distinct idealized level shifts were identified superimposed on a uniform secular downward trend. The first one is seen towards the end of the 1960s with a jump sex odds ratio (SOR) 1.00681, p < 0.0001. The second one occurred in 1987 with SOR 1.00474, p < 0.0001. In each of the 3 periods separated by the two jumps, SSR uniformly decreased with trend SOR per 100 years of 0.98549, p < 0.0001. In conclusion, the secular trend in the Italian SSR showed two marked level shifts, at the end of the 1960s and from 1987 onward. These follow the release of radioactivity by atmospheric atomic bomb tests during the 1960s and by Chernobyl in 1986 and corroborate the hypothesis that ionizing radiation increases SSR.

Comparative assessment of impact analysis methods applied to large commercial aircraft crash on reinforced concrete containment.

The precise evaluation of the potential damage caused by large commercial aircraft crash into civil structures, especially nuclear power plants (NPPs), has become essential design consideration. In this study, impact of Boeing 767 against rigid wall and outer containment building (reinforced concrete) of an NPP are simulated in ANSYS/LS-DYNA by using both force time history and missile target interaction methods with impact velocities ranging from 100 m/s to 150 m/s. The results show that impact loads, displacements, stresses for concrete and steel reinforcement, and damaged elements are higher in case of force time history method than missile target interaction method, making the former relatively conservative. It is observed that no perforation or scabbing takes place in case of 100 m/s impact speed, thus preventing any potential leakage. With full mass of Boeing 767 and impact velocity slightly above 100 m/s, the outer containment building can prevent local failure modes. At impact velocity higher than 120 m/s, scabbing and perforations are dominant. This concludes that in design and assessment of NPP structures against aircraft loadings, sufficient thickness or consideration of steel plates are essential to account for local failure modes and overall structural integrity. Furthermore, validation and application of detail 3D finite element and material models to full-scale impact analysis have been carried out to expand the existing database. In rigid wall impact analysis, the impact forces and impulses from FE analysis and Riera's method correspond well, which satisfies the recommendations of relevant standards and further ensure the accuracy of results in full-scale impact analysis. The methodology presented in this paper is extremely effective in simulating structural evaluation of full-scale aircraft impact on important facilities such as NPPs.

A Critical Assessment of the Linear No-Threshold Hypothesis: Its Validity and Applicability for Use in Risk Assessment and Radiation Protection.

The Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging convened a task group to examine the evidence for the risk of carcinogenesis from low-dose radiation exposure and to assess evidence in the scientific literature related to the overall validity of the linear no-threshold (LNT) hypothesis and its applicability for use in risk assessment and radiation protection. In the low-dose and dose-rate region, the group concluded that the LNT hypothesis is invalid as it is not supported by the available scientific evidence and, instead, is actually refuted by published epidemiology and radiation biology. The task group concluded that the evidence does not support the use of LNT either for risk assessment or radiation protection in the low-dose and dose-rate region.

An approach to identifying the relative importance of different radionuclides in ecological radiological risk assessment: Application to nuclear power plant releases.

There is a need to prioritise the requirements for data to assess the radiological risk for fauna and flora, as inevitable large data gaps occur due to the large number of combinations of radionuclides and organisms for which doses need to be assessed. The potentially most important dose-forming radionuclide-pathways combinations need to be identified to optimize filling these gaps. Few attempts have been made to classify the importance of isotopes with regard to radiation protection of the environment. A hierarchical approach is described here for radionuclides that are potentially present in generic ecosystems (freshwater, marine or terrestrial) and is applied for scenarios considering ecologically relevant chronic exposure. In each ecosystem, the top ten radionuclides that may contribute to doses were identified using a qualitative Chronic Hazard Index. Including quantitative aspects by incorporating discharge quantities changed the priority list, and increased the relative importance of radionuclides contributing most to the authorized releases of nuclear facilities (14C and 3H followed by 60C). The potentially most important dose-contributing radionuclides in the framework of environmental radiation protection under a chronic exposure situation included isotopes of about 20 elements. The five most important in order of decreasing importance were: carbon, hydrogen, caesium, cobalt and americium. Consideration of acute exposure situations was hampered by data gaps that were even greater than that for chronic exposure situations, so it was only possible to consider the feasibility of developing a consistent approach.

Marine ecological risk assessment methods for radiation accidents.

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is a powerful technical tool that can be used to analyze potential and extreme adverse environmental impacts. With the rapid development of nuclear power plants in coastal areas around the world, the establishment of approaches and methodologies for marine ERA with a focus on radiation accidents is an urgent requirement for marine environmental management. In this study, the approaches and methodologies for ERA pertaining to marine radiation accidents (MRA) are discussed and summarized with applications in case studies, such as the nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan, and a hypothetical accident in Daya Bay, China. The concepts of ERA and Risk Degree of ERA on MRA are defined for the first time to optimize the ERA system. The results of case studies show that the ERA approach and methodology for MRA are scientifically sound and effective in both the early and late stage of MRAs along with classic ERA Approach and the ERICA Integrated Approach. The results can be useful in the decision-making processes and the risk management at the beginning of accident as well as the ecological restoration after the accident.

Development of posture-specific computational phantoms using motion capture technology and application to radiation dose-reconstruction for the 1999 Tokai-Mura nuclear criticality accident.

The majority of existing computational phantoms are designed to represent workers in typical standing anatomical postures with fixed arm and leg positions. However, workers found in accident-related scenarios often assume varied postures. This paper describes the development and application of two phantoms with adjusted postures specified by data acquired from a motion capture system to simulate unique human postures found in a 1999 criticality accident that took place at a JCO facility in Tokai-Mura, Japan. In the course of this accident, two workers were fatally exposed to extremely high levels of radiation. Implementation of the emergent techniques discussed produced more accurate and more detailed dose estimates for the two workers than were reported in previous studies. A total-body dose of 6.43 and 26.38 Gy was estimated for the two workers, who assumed a crouching and a standing posture, respectively. Additionally, organ-specific dose estimates were determined, including a 7.93 Gy dose to the thyroid and 6.11 Gy dose to the stomach for the crouching worker and a 41.71 Gy dose to the liver and a 37.26 Gy dose to the stomach for the standing worker. Implications for the medical prognosis of the workers are discussed, and the results of this study were found to correlate better with the patient outcome than previous estimates, suggesting potential future applications of such methods for improved epidemiological studies involving next-generation computational phantom tools.

[Comparative evaluation of the health status of descendants of people residing in environmentally unfriendly regions by means of mathematical modeling].

The aim of the study was to evaluate reproductive health of descendants of people who experienced effects of adverse environmental factors, such as radiation and chemical contamination (the descendants themselves were unaffected by these factors). Reproductive health of women was assessed by mathematical modeling. Factors of greatest importance for the health status of the descendants were distinguished among the 76 ones studied. It was shown that reproductive health of the subjects descending from the people exposed to radiation deteriorated more significantly than of those whose ancestors were affected by chemical factors.

[Immunity and health: the accelerated aging of immune system in veterans of extra risk divisions].

This article presents the data about state of health and immunity in veterans of extra risk divisions. The increased morbidity and immunity infringement in the remote terms after nuclear tests, and also while liquidation of consequences of radiating failures on nuclear submarines are shown. Changes of humoral factors of nonspecific protection, concentration of immunoglobulinums, in blood whey, a sensitization of lymphocytes to respiratory viruses, humoral and cellular autoimmune shifts are registered. Some of the revealed changes (complement, lysozyme, concentration of immunoglobulinums) are a consequence of advanced age and accompanying diseases in the people surveyed, and others (autoimmune shifts, a sensitization to respiratory viruses) can be connected with carrying out of tests of the nuclear weapon. Some of immunological changes are apparently a consequence of joined actions of radiating and not radiating factors. Among the last ones stress plays the essential role. For the characteristic of a state of health in 20-40 years after carrying out nuclear tests and possible radiating influence the estimation of autoimmune changes has a great value. The important role of such changes in morbidity of veterans of extra risk divisions is shown.

Radiological effluents released by U.S. commercial nuclear power plants from 1995-2005.

Commercial nuclear power plants release gaseous and liquid radiological effluents into the environment as by-products of electrical generation. In the U.S. these releases are monitored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S. NRC) and Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA). Traditionally these releases have always been well below the regulatory limits. However, the tracking and analysis of nuclear power radiological effluents was stopped in 1994 by several government agencies. The purpose of this study was to compile the entire U.S. industry effluent data, identify trends, and calculate average population dose commitments since that time. Data were taken from radioactive material release reports submitted by each nuclear power plant. Industry trends were identified using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. Total collective effective and population doses were estimated using UNSCEAR and U.S. NRC methodologies. Overall, industry releases have been level over the study time period. Public doses continue to be well below 1% of the regulatory limits.

Reframing nuclear power in the UK energy debate: nuclear power, climate change mitigation and radioactive waste.

In the past decade, human influence on the climate through increased use of fossil fuels has become widely acknowledged as one of the most pressing issues for the global community. For the United Kingdom, we suggest that these concerns have increasingly become manifest in a new strand of political debate around energy policy, which reframes nuclear power as part of the solution to the need for low-carbon energy options. A mixed-methods analysis of citizen views of climate change and radioactive waste is presented, integrating focus group data and a nationally representative survey. The data allow us to explore how UK citizens might now and in the future interpret and make sense of this new framing of nuclear power--which ultimately centers on a risk-risk trade-off scenario. We use the term "reluctant acceptance" to describe how, in complex ways, many focus group participants discursively re-negotiated their position on nuclear energy when it was positioned alongside climate change. In the concluding section of the paper, we reflect on the societal implications of the emerging discourse of new nuclear build as a means of delivering climate change mitigation and set an agenda for future research regarding the (re)framing of the nuclear energy debate in the UK and beyond.

An analysis of 20 years of radiation-related health care complaints in Texas for the purposes of quality improvement.

In an effort to reveal the possible underlying causes of radiation-related health care complaints in the State of Texas, complaint data were evaluated using historical Texas Department of Health-Bureau of Radiation Control (TDH-BRC) reports. A major aim of the study was to generate a summary of the most commonly reported complaints that might be generalized to health care providers using sources of radiation across Texas. A generalizable list of common complaints would be a valuable tool for education and prevention programs, serving to possibly reduce the overall incidence of radiation-related medical complaints. Descriptive text summary reports of complaints were obtained from the TDH-BRC for the 20-y period inclusive of 1981 to 2001. The information was systematically coded into a computerized database. During the 20-y period of study, 481 health care-related complaints were identified, with approximately 74% consisting of claims of an "uncredentialed technician" (39%), "overexposure" (21%), or "regulatory violation" (14%). The most common categories of complaints imply some patient understanding or knowledge of the credentialing requirements of workers, the applicable dose limits, or the regulatory requirements associated with medical procedures. Since it is unlikely that an average patient would be aware of such issues, the findings suggest the complaints are not actually indications of the inappropriate uses of radiation, but are rather based on the patient's broader perception of services rendered. Most of the complaints levied during the period of study were done so anonymously (58%) and were levied against a generic facility (61%) rather than a specific technician (5%), doctor (4%), or student (1%). Approximately 61% of the complaints resulted in the issuance of a notice of violation upon investigation by the TDH-BRC, but the available data did not permit definitive linkage between the initial complaint and the violation issued. Taken in aggregate, the analysis suggests that improved communications between health care providers and the patients they serve could possibly serve to prevent future complaints. Although the analysis was limited to the data from a single state, the results may be of use to quality assurance programs on a broader scale because of the objective identification of likely common issues. Possible options for improving the means of systematically collecting initial compliant data in the future are also discussed.

[Opportunities for the 112 Emergency Service to collaborate in public health surveillance]. / Oportunidades de colaboración de los Servicios de Emergencias 112 en la vigilancia de la salud pública.

The Andalusian Regional Ministry of Health is implementing an Alert Integrated System (SIA) in order to improve the health protection of the population by means of the appropriate response to the sanitary alerts. <> is a service aimed both to catastrophic situations and to the other ones needing intervention and multisectorial coordination. Theses functions make possible their collaboration with the SIA, furnishing it with information about a series of environmental incidents. A study has been carried out in order to characterize the information received and to evaluate it systematic inclusion in the SIA, which include alerts from january to August 2003. The number of incidents communicated to 112 were 656, rank between months from 45 to 117. It is appropriate to underline the frequency of incidences related to Natural Hazards (50.15%) and Environmental Pollution (26.07%). The 67.55% of incidences happened between 15.00 p.m. and 8.00 a.m. hours of the following day. By provinces, Sevilla reported 24.5%, and the higher rate belongs to Huelva with 4.74 incidences/100 000 inhabitants. Incidents related to health care, environmental problems, risks to alimentary and occupational health, and epidemiological alerts are of great interest to the SIA; that is why it is necessary to consider the integration of the information systems of the emergency centres in the Public Health Surveillance.

Analysis of dose distribution for heavily exposed workers in the first criticality accident in Japan.

The first criticality accident in Japan occurred in a uranium processing plant in Tokai-mura on September 30, 1999. The accident, which occurred while a large amount of enriched uranyl nitrate solution was being loaded into a tank, led to a chain reaction that continued for 20 h. Two workers who were pouring the uranium solution into the tank at the time were heterogeneously exposed to neutrons and gamma rays produced by nuclear fission. Analysis of dose distributions was essential for the understanding of the clinical course observed in the skin and organs of these workers. We developed a numerical simulation system, which consists of mathematical human models and Monte Carlo radiation transport programs, for analyzing dose distributions in various postures and applied the system to the dose analysis for the two workers. This analysis revealed the extreme heterogeneity of the doses from neutrons and gamma rays in the skin and body, which depended on the positions and postures of the workers. The detailed dose analysis presented here using color maps is indispensable for an understanding of the biological effects of high-dose exposure to a mixed field of neutrons and gamma rays as well as for the development of emergency treatments for victims of radiation exposure.

[The cytogenetic assessment of the degree of severity of acute radiation sickness in those who cleaned up the Chernobyl catastrophe]. / Tsitogeneticheskaia otsenka stepeni tiazhesti ostroi luchevoi bolezni u likvidatorov Chernobyl'skoi katastrofy.

The study is of a retrospective character and is based on the author's own cytogenetic findings secured in May-June 1986 in the examination of patients diagnosed as having had a first to third-degree acute radiation sickness while receiving massive detoxicating therapy. We consider it expedient to employ the model of multiple linear regression relying on a complex of most informative cytogenetic indicators rather than on only one such indicator alongside the traditional dose reaction identifiable by the level of dicentric chromosomes in blood lymphocytes. This will allow the degree of severity of the radiation injury to be determined with greater precision and permits assessing the therapeutic efficiency of the measures implemented.

[The health indices of those working in the cleanup during accident recovery operations]. / Nekotorye pokazateli zdorov'ia likvidatorov v period avariino-vosstanovitel'nykh rabot.

Having analyzed the data base of All-Army register contained information about 35,970 rescuers it was determined that 45.5% of them during works in dangerous radiative conditions complained of the health change for the worse characterized by the state of irritation of mucous membrane of superior respiratory and gastrointestinal tracts. The direct correlation between value of irradiation dose and frequency of complaints, and also degree of lowering of there physical performance have been defined.