Primary Care Physician Network Overlap Between Medicaid and the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Marketplace.

This cross-sectional study quantifies Medicaid and the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace overlap among primary care physicians.

Primary care doctors retirements in the context of an ageing population in Italy.

Background: Ongoing shortages in primary care doctors/primary care paediatricians and increasing healthcare needs due to ageing of the population represent a great challenge for healthcare providers, managers, and policymakers. To support planning of primary healthcare resource allocation we analyzed the geographic distribution of primary care doctors/primary care paediatricians across Italian regions, accounting for area-specific number and age of the population. Additionally, we estimated the number of primary care doctors/primary care paediatricians expected to retire over the next 25 years, with a focus on the next five years. Study design: Ecological study. Methods: We gathered the list of Italian general practitioners and primary care paediatricians and combined them with the data from the National Federation of Medical Doctors, Surgeons and Dentists. Using data from the National Institutes of Statistics, we calculated the average number of patients per doctor for each region using the number of residents above and under 14 years of age for general practitioners and primary care paediatricians respectively. We also calculated the number of residents over-65 and over-75 years of age per general practitioner, as elderly patients typically have higher healthcare needs. Results: On average the number of patients per general practitioner was 1,447 (SD: 190), while for paediatricians it was 1,139 (SD: 241), with six regions above the threshold of 1,500 patients per general practitioner and only one region under the threshold of 880 patients per paediatrician. We estimated that on average 2,228 general practitioners and 444 paediatricians are going to retire each year for the next five years, reaching more than 70% among the current workforce for some southern regions. The number of elderly patients per general practitioner varies substantially between regions, with two regions having >15% more patients aged over 65 years compared to the expected number. Conclusions: over 65 years compared to the expected number. Conclusions. The study highlighted that some regions do not currently have the required primary care workforce, and the expec-ted retirements and the ageing of the population will exacerbate the pressure on the already over-stretched healthcare services. A response from healthcare administrations and policymakers is urgently required to allow equitable access to quality primary care across the country.

A retomada do Programa Mais Médicos em 2023 / La reanudación del Programa Mais Médicos en 2023 / The resumption of the Mais Médicos Program in 2023

RESUMO: Os vazios assistenciais e a demanda por médicos no Sistema Único de Saúde são problemas crônicos, principalmente nas regiões mais vulneráveis do Norte e Nordeste e em áreas periféricas de centros urbanos. Frente a essa necessidade, o governo federal está recompondo o Programa Mais Médicos para o Brasil, por meio dos ministérios da Saúde, da Educação e da Fazenda. Os principais eixos do programa são a provisão de médicos na Atenção Primária em Saúde e a formação desses profissionais, nessa versão associados à especialização e mestrado profissional, tendo como referência a concepção de Atenção Primária à Saúde integral. Nesta nota de conjuntura, trazemos informações sobre a trajetória oficial deste movimento de retomada, recuperando brevemente características e avanços proporcionados por essa política - instituída primeiramente em 2013 - e apresentando peculiaridades da versão atual, proposta pewla medida provisória n. 1.165, de 20 de março de 2023, convertida em lei (n. 14.621/2023) e sancionada em julho deste ano.

RESUMEN: Las brechas de asistencia y la demanda de médicos en el Sistema Único de Salud son problemas crónicos, especialmente en las regiones más vulnerables del Norte y del Noreste y en las zonas periféricas de los centros urbanos. Ante esta necesidad, el gobierno federal está recomponiendo el Programa Mais Médicos para Brasil, a través de los ministerios de Salud, Educación y Hacienda. Los principales ejes del programa son la provisión de médicos en Atención Primaria de Salud y la formación de estos profesionales, en esta versión asociada a la especialización y maestría profesional, con referencia al concepto de atención primaria para la salud integral. En esta nota de coyuntura, traemos información sobre la trayectoria oficial de este movimiento de reanudación, recuperando brevemente las características y los avances proporcionados por esta política - establecida por primera vez en 2013 - y presentando las peculiaridades de la versión actual, propuesta por la medida provisional n. 1.165, del 20 de marzo de 2023, convertida en ley (n. 14.621/2023) y sancionado en julio de este año.

ABSTRACT: Healthcare gaps and the demand for physicians in the Brazilian Health System are chronic problems, especially in the most vulnerable regions of the North and Northeast and in peripheral areas of urban centers. In view of this need, the federal government is recomposing the Mais Médicos Program for Brazil, through the ministries of Health, Education and Finance. The main axes of the program are the provision of doctors in Primary Health Care and the training of these professionals, in this version associated with specialization and professional master's, with reference to the concept of primary care for integral health. In this note of conjuncture, we bring information about the official trajectory of this recovery movement, briefly recovering characteristics and advances provided by this policy - first established in 2013 - and presenting peculiarities of the current version, proposed by provisional measure n. 1.165, of March 20th, 2023, converted into law (n. 14.621/2023) and sanctioned in July of this year.

Dual-eligible beneficiaries and inadequate access to primary care.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether enough primary care providers are in close proximity to where dual-eligible beneficiaries live to provide the capacity needed for integrated care models. STUDY DESIGN: Secondary data analysis using dual-eligible enrollment data and health care workforce data. METHODS: We determined the density of dual-eligible beneficiaries per 1000 population in 2017 for each of 3142 US counties. County-level supply of primary care physicians (PCPs), primary care nurse practitioners, and physician assistants was determined. RESULTS: One-third of the 791 counties with the highest density of dual-eligible beneficiaries had PCP shortages. Counties with the highest density of dual-eligible beneficiaries and the fewest primary care clinicians of any type were concentrated in Southeastern states. These areas also had some of the highest coronavirus disease 2019 outbreaks within their states. CONCLUSIONS: States in the Southeastern region of the United States with some of the most restrictive scope-of-practice laws have an inadequate supply of primary care providers to serve a high concentration of dual-eligible beneficiaries. The fragmented care of the dually eligible population leads to extremely high costs, prompting policy makers to consider integrated delivery models that emphasize primary care. However, primary care workforce shortages will be an enduring challenge without scope-of-practice reforms.

Beyond the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Urgent Need to Expand Primary Care and Family Medicine.

The COVID-19 pandemic, together with its resultant economic downturn, has unmasked serious problems of access, costs, quality of care, inequities, and disparities of US health care. It has exposed a serious primary care shortage, the unreliability of employer-sponsored health insurance, systemic racism, and other dysfunctions of a system turned on its head without a primary care base. Fundamental reform is urgently needed to bring affordable health care that is accessible to all Americans. Over the last 40-plus years, our supposed system has been taken over by corporate stakeholders with the presumption that a competitive unfettered marketplace will achieve the needed goal of affordable, accessible care. That theory has been thoroughly disproven by experience as the ranks of more than 30 million uninsured and 87 million underinsured demonstrates. Three main reform alternatives before us are: (1) to build on the Affordable Care Act; (2) to implement some kind of a public option; and (3) to enact single-payer Medicare for All. It is only the third option that can make affordable, comprehensive health care accessible for our entire population. As the debate goes forward over these alternatives during this election season, the likelihood of major change through a new system of national health insurance is becoming increasingly realistic. Rebuilding primary care and public health is a high priority as we face a new normal in US health care that places the public interest above that of corporate stakeholders and Wall Street investors. Primary care, and especially family medicine, should become the foundation of a reformed health care system.

Changes in Health Care Use and Outcomes After Turnover in Primary Care.

Importance: Disruptions of continuity of care may harm patient outcomes, but existing studies of continuity disruption are limited by an inability to separate the association of continuity disruption from that of other physician-related factors. Objectives: To examine changes in health care use and outcomes among patients whose primary care physician (PCP) exited the workforce and to directly measure the association of this primary care turnover with patients' health care use and outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used nationally representative Medicare billing claims for a random sample of 359 470 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries with at least 1 PCP evaluation and management visit from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2017. Primary care physicians who stopped practicing were identified and matched with PCPs who remained in practice. A difference-in-differences analysis compared health care use and clinical outcomes for patients who did lose PCPs with those who did not lose PCPs using subgroup analyses by practice size. Subgroup analyses were done on visits from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2017. Exposure: Patients' loss of a PCP. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary care, specialty care, urgent care, emergency department, and inpatient visits, as well as overall spending for patients, were the primary outcomes. Receipt of appropriate preventive care and prescription fills were also examined. Results: During the study period, 9491 of 90 953 PCPs (10.4%) exited Medicare. We matched 169 870 beneficiaries whose PCP exited (37.2% women; mean [SD] age, 71.4 [6.1] years) with 189 600 beneficiaries whose PCP did not exit (36.9% women; mean [SD] age, 72.0 [5.0] years). The year after PCP exit, beneficiaries whose PCP exited had 18.4% (95% CI, -19.8% to -16.9%) fewer primary care visits and 6.2% (95% CI, 5.4%-7.0%) more specialty care visits compared with beneficiaries who did not lose a PCP. This outcome persisted 2 years after PCP exit. Beneficiaries whose PCP exited also had 17.8% (95% CI, 6.0%-29.7%) more urgent care visits, 3.1% (95% CI, 1.6%-4.6%) more emergency department visits, and greater spending ($189 [95% CI, $30-$347]) per beneficiary-year after PCP exit. These shifts were most pronounced for patients of exiting PCPs in solo practice, whose beneficiaries had 21.5% (95% CI, -23.8% to -19.3%) fewer primary care visits, 8.8% (95% CI, 7.6%-10.0%) more specialty care visits, 4.4% more emergency department visits (95% CI, 2.1%-6.7%), and $260 (95% CI, $12-$509) in increased spending. Conclusions and Relevance: Loss of a PCP was associated with lower use of primary care and increased use of specialty, urgent, and emergency care among Medicare beneficiaries. Interrupting primary care relationships may negatively impact health outcomes and future engagement with primary care.

Calculating physician supply using a service day method and the income percentiles method: a descriptive analysis.

BACKGROUND: It is important to have an accurate count of physicians and a measurable understanding of their service provision for physician resource planning. Our objective was to compare 2 methods (income percentiles [IP] and service day activities [SVD]) for calculating the supply of full-time (FT) and part-time (PT) primary care physicians (PCPs) as measures of both physician supply counts and level of provider continuity. METHODS: Using an observational study design, we compared 2 methods of calculating the supply of PT and FT PCPs for 2011-2015. For the IP approach, the Canadian Institute for Health Information's method was applied to Alberta Health billing data. The SVD method calculated annual service days for fee-for-service PCPs. A simple descriptive analysis was conducted of the supply of PT and FT PCPs. RESULTS: The 2 methods agreed on the FT versus PT status of 85.2% of PCPs in 2015 but disagreed on the status of 490 PCPs. A total of 239 PCPs were classified as working FT by the IP method but PT by the SVD method. Two hundred and fifty-one PCPs were classified as working PT according by the IP method but FT by the SVD method. The former group of 239 PCPs worked fewer days per week (3.22 v. 4.1) and fewer weekend days per year (8.6 v. 24.1), billed more per year ($300 327 v. $201 834) and saw more patients per day (26.8 v. 17.8) with less continuity of care (38.0% v. 72.0%) than the latter group of 251 PCPs. INTERPRETATION: The SVD method provides a valid alternative to calculating GP supply that distinguishes groups of physicians that the standard IP methodology does not. Those groups provide very different service; policy-makers may benefit from distinguishing them.

The Neighborhood Deprivation Index and Provider Geocoding Identify Critical Catchment Areas for Diabetes Outreach.

PURPOSE: In designing a Project ECHO™ type 1 diabetes (T1D) program in Florida and California, the Neighborhood Deprivation Index (NDI) was used in conjunction with geocoding of primary care providers (PCPs) and endocrinologists in each state to concurrently identify areas with low endocrinology provider density and high health risk/poverty areas. The NDI measures many aspects of poverty proven to be critical indicators of health outcomes. METHODS: The data from the 2013-2017 American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year estimates were used to create NDI maps for California and Florida. In addition, geocoding and 30-minute drive-time buffers were performed using publicly available provider directories for PCPs and endocrinologists in both states by Google Geocoding API and the TravelTime Search Application Programming Interface (API). RESULTS: Based on these findings, we defined high-need catchment areas as areas with (1) more than a 30-minute drive to the nearest endocrinologist but within a 30-minute drive to the nearest PCP; (2) an NDI in the highest quartile; and (3) a population above the median (5199 for census tracts, and 1394 for census block groups). Out of the 12 181 census tracts and 34 490 census block groups in California and Florida, we identified 57 tracts and 215 block groups meeting these criteria as high-need catchment areas. CONCLUSION: Geospatial analysis provides an important initial methodologic step to effectively focus outreach efforts in diabetes program development. The integration of the NDI with geocoded provider directories enables more cost-effective and targeted interventions to reach the most vulnerable populations living with T1D.

Using Machine Learning to Predict Primary Care and Advance Workforce Research.

PURPOSE: To develop and test a machine-learning-based model to predict primary care and other specialties using Medicare claims data. METHODS: We used 2014-2016 prescription and procedure Medicare data to train 3 sets of random forest classifiers (prescription only, procedure only, and combined) to predict specialty. Self-reported specialties were condensed to 27 categories. Physicians were assigned to testing and training cohorts, and random forest models were trained and then applied to 2014-2016 data sets for the testing cohort to generate a series of specialty predictions. Comparing the predicted specialty to self-report, we assessed performance with F1 scores and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) values. RESULTS: A total of 564,986 physicians were included. The combined model had a greater aggregate (macro) F1 score (0.876) than the prescription-only (0.745; P <.01) or procedure-only (0.821; P <.01) model. Mean F1 scores across specialties in the combined model ranged from 0.533 to 0.987. The mean F1 score was 0.920 for primary care. The mean AUROC value for the combined model was 0.992, with values ranging from 0.982 to 0.999. The AUROC value for primary care was 0.982. CONCLUSIONS: This novel approach showed high performance and provides a near real-time assessment of current primary care practice. These findings have important implications for primary care workforce research in the absence of accurate data.

Actionable Analysis: Toward a Jurisdictional Evaluation of Primary Care Access in the Community Context.

Primary care is the foundation of health care systems and has potential to alleviate inequities in population health. We examined multiple measures of adult primary care access, health status, and socioeconomic position at the New York City Council District level-a unit of analysis both relevant to and actionable by local policymakers. The results showed significant associations between measures of primary care access and health status after adjustment for socioeconomic factors. We found that an increase of 1 provider per 10 000 people was associated with a 1% decrease in diabetes rates and a 5% decrease in rates of adults without an influenza immunization. Furthermore, higher rates of primary care providers in high-poverty districts accepted Medicaid and had Patient-Centered Medical Home recognition, increasing constituent accessibility. Our findings highlight the significant contribution of primary care access to community health; policies and resource allocation must prioritize primary care facility siting and provider recruitment in low-access areas.

National and Regional Variation in Local Primary Care Physician Density Relative to the Uninsured and the Affordable Care Act.

This study is the first to examine primary care physician (PCP) density relative to the uninsured at the local level prior to and after insurance expansion under the Affordable Care Act. Primary care physician density is associated with access to care, lower inpatient and emergency care, and primary care services. However, access to primary care among the uninsured may be limited due to inadequate availability of PCPs. Core-Based Statistical Area (CBSA) data from the Area Health Resource File were retrospectively examined before and after Medicaid expansion. Multiple logistic regressions were modeled for PCP density with predictor interaction effects for percentage uninsured, Medicaid expansion status, and US Census regions. Medicaid expansion CBSAs had significantly lower proportions of uninsured and higher PCP density compared with their nonexpansion counterparts. Nationally, increasing proportions of the uninsured were significantly associated with decreasing PCP density. Most notably, there is an expected 32% lower PCP density in Western Medicaid expansion areas with many uninsured (90th percentile) compared with those with few uninsured (10th percentile). Areas expanding Medicaid with greater proportions of people becoming insured postexpansion had significantly fewer PCPs. Areas with greater proportions of the uninsured may have reduced access to primary care due to the paucity of PCPs in these areas. Efforts to improve access should consider a lack of local PCPs as a limitation for ensuring accessible and timely care. Health care and policy leaders should focus on answers to improve the local availability of primary care clinicians in underserved communities.

Training for Future Generations: Innovations in the Medical Education of Physicians in North Carolina.

North Carolina's five medical schools are responding to the changing health care landscape and continued shortage of rural, primary care physicians through curricular innovations. Early indications suggest that these innovations-involving themes of longitudinal training, immersive experiences, practice transformation, and health equity promotion-will lead to a new physician workforce.

Factors Affecting Specialty Choice Among Doctors Who Received Tuition Scholarships.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The United States is projected to have a shortage of up to 46,000 primary care physicians by 2025. In many cases, medical students appear to select other specialties for financial reasons, including educational debt. Physicians who were part of two BS/MD programs and received full tuition and fee scholarships for college and medical school were surveyed to examine factors that may have impacted their specialty choice. This population of US students was selected because they do not have educational debt, so their choices could be examined independent of this influence. METHODS: One hundred forty physicians who graduated from the programs as of June 2013 were invited to complete a 32-question online survey. Descriptive statistics described the population. χ2 tests and nonparametric Wilcoxon rank-sum (Mann-Whitney) tests compared primary care and nonprimary care physicians as well as those initially interested in primary care who changed before medical school graduation versus those who went into primary care. Factor analysis and Student t-test examined trends among Likert scale questions. RESULTS: For the physicians for whom contact information was available, 74 (53%) responded. Out of 74 respondents, 18 (24%) went into primary care. Perceptions of family medicine, comments from faculty, and lifestyle played a role in deterring students from primary care. CONCLUSIONS: Full tuition and fee scholarships alone were not associated with more students choosing primary care.

Association of Primary Care Physician Supply With Population Mortality in the United States, 2005-2015.

Importance: Recent US health care reforms incentivize improved population health outcomes and primary care functions. It remains unclear how much improving primary care physician supply can improve population health, independent of other health care and socioeconomic factors. Objectives: To identify primary care physician supply changes across US counties from 2005-2015 and associations between such changes and population mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: This epidemiological study evaluated US population data and individual-level claims data linked to mortality from 2005 to 2015 against changes in primary care and specialist physician supply from 2005 to 2015. Data from 3142 US counties, 7144 primary care service areas, and 306 hospital referral regions were used to investigate the association of primary care physician supply with changes in life expectancy and cause-specific mortality after adjustment for health care, demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral covariates. Analysis was performed from March to July 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-standardized life expectancy, cause-specific mortality, and restricted mean survival time. Results: Primary care physician supply increased from 196 014 physicians in 2005 to 204 419 in 2015. Owing to disproportionate losses of primary care physicians in some counties and population increases, the mean (SD) density of primary care physicians relative to population size decreased from 46.6 per 100 000 population (95% CI, 0.0-114.6 per 100 000 population) to 41.4 per 100 000 population (95% CI, 0.0-108.6 per 100 000 population), with greater losses in rural areas. In adjusted mixed-effects regressions, every 10 additional primary care physicians per 100 000 population was associated with a 51.5-day increase in life expectancy (95% CI, 29.5-73.5 days; 0.2% increase), whereas an increase in 10 specialist physicians per 100 000 population corresponded to a 19.2-day increase (95% CI, 7.0-31.3 days). A total of 10 additional primary care physicians per 100 000 population was associated with reduced cardiovascular, cancer, and respiratory mortality by 0.9% to 1.4%. Analyses at different geographic levels, using instrumental variable regressions, or at the individual level found similar benefits associated with primary care supply. Conclusions and Relevance: Greater primary care physician supply was associated with lower mortality, but per capita supply decreased between 2005 and 2015. Programs to explicitly direct more resources to primary care physician supply may be important for population health.

Association Among County-Level Economic Factors, Clinician Supply, Metropolitan or Rural Location, and Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome.

Importance: Neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS) has increased over the last 2 decades, but limited data exist on its association with economic conditions or clinician supply. Objective: To determine the association among long-term unemployment, clinician supply (as assessed by primary care and mental health clinician shortage areas), and rates of NAS and evaluate how associations differ based on rurality. Design, Setting, and Participants: Ecological time-series analysis of a retrospective, repeated cross-sectional study using outcome data from all 580 counties in Florida, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Washington from 2009 to 2015 and economic data from 2000 to 2015. Negative binomial models were used with year and county-level fixed effects. Interactions were tested and stratified analyses were conducted by metropolitan counties, rural counties adjacent to metropolitan counties, and rural remote counties. Exposures: County-level 10-year unemployment rate and mental health and primary care clinician supply obtained from the Health Resources and Services Administration Area Health Resources Files. Main Outcomes and Measure: Rates of NAS, excluding iatrogenic withdrawal, obtained from state inpatient databases. Results: The sample included observations from 580 counties over 7 years (1803 county-years from metropolitan counties, 1268 county-years from rural counties adjacent to metropolitan counties, and 927 county-years from rural remote counties). During the study period, there were 6 302 497 births and 47 224 diagnoses of NAS. The median rate of NAS was 7.1 per 1000 hospital births (interquartile range [IQR], 2.2-15.8), the 10-year unemployment rate was 7.6% (IQR, 6.4%-9.0%), and 83.9% of county-years were partial or complete mental health shortage areas. In the adjusted analyses, mental health shortage areas had higher NAS rates (unadjusted rate in shortage areas of 14.0 per 1000 births vs unadjusted rate in nonshortage areas of 10.6 per 1000 births; adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.17 [95% CI, 1.07-1.27]), occurring primarily in metropolitan counties (adjusted IRR, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.16-1.40]; P = .02 for test of equivalence between metropolitan counties and rural counties adjacent to metropolitan counties). There was no significant association between primary care shortage areas and rates of NAS. The 10-year unemployment rate was associated with higher rates of NAS (unadjusted rate in highest unemployment quartile of 20.1 per 1000 births vs 7.8 per 1000 births in lowest unemployment quartile; adjusted IRR, 1.11 [95% CI, 1.00-1.23]) occurring primarily in rural remote counties (adjusted IRR, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.05-1.70]; P = .04 for test of equivalence between metropolitan counties and rural remote counties). Conclusions and Relevance: In this ecological analysis of counties in 8 US states, there was a significant association among higher long-term unemployment, higher mental health clinician shortage areas, and higher county-level rates of neonatal abstinence syndrome.