Hospital Surge Capacity: A Web-Based Simulation Tool for Emergency Planners.

The National Center for the Study of Preparedness and Catastrophic Event Response (PACER) has created a publicly available simulation tool called Surge (accessible at http://www.pacerapps.org) to estimate surge capacity for user-defined hospitals. Based on user input, a Monte Carlo simulation algorithm forecasts available hospital bed capacity over a 7-day period and iteratively assesses the ability to accommodate disaster patients. Currently, the tool can simulate bed capacity for acute mass casualty events (such as explosions) only and does not specifically simulate staff and supply inventory. Strategies to expand hospital capacity, such as (1) opening unlicensed beds, (2) canceling elective admissions, and (3) implementing reverse triage, can be interactively evaluated. In the present application of the tool, various response strategies were systematically investigated for 3 nationally representative hospital settings (large urban, midsize community, small rural). The simulation experiments estimated baseline surge capacity between 7% (large hospitals) and 22% (small hospitals) of staffed beds. Combining all response strategies simulated surge capacity between 30% and 40% of staffed beds. Response strategies were more impactful in the large urban hospital simulation owing to higher baseline occupancy and greater proportion of elective admissions. The publicly available Surge tool enables proactive assessment of hospital surge capacity to support improved decision-making for disaster response. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:513-522).

Disappearing everyday materials: The displacement of medical resources following disaster in Fukushima, Japan.

This study draws upon interviews of medical staff working in the city of Minamisoma, Japan, following the 2011 Triple Disaster. It investigates staff responses to the disruption of material resources as a consequence of the disaster and its management. The disruption of spaces, and the loss of oxygen supplies, food, and medications impacted upon staff experience and the ability of institutions to care for patients. This resulted in a restructuring of spaces and materials as workers made efforts to reconfigure and reestablish healthcare functions. This is one of the few qualitative studies which draws upon the experience and perspectives of health workers in understanding material disruption following disaster. This is particularly important since this case did not involve the breakdown of lifeline infrastructure, but rather, brought to attention the way everyday material objects shape social experience. In highlighting these effects, the paper makes the case for the social scientific investigation of the impact of disasters on healthcare, shedding light on an area of research currently dominated by disaster medicine.

Point-of-care testing for disasters: needs assessment, strategic planning, and future design.

Objective evidence-based national surveys serve as a first step in identifying suitable point-of-care device designs, effective test clusters, and environmental operating conditions. Preliminary survey results show the need for point-of-care testing (POCT) devices using test clusters that specifically detect pathogens found in disaster scenarios. Hurricane Katrina, the tsunami in southeast Asia, and the current influenza pandemic (H1N1, "swine flu") vividly illustrate lack of national and global preparedness. Gap analysis of current POCT devices versus survey results reveals how POCT needs can be fulfilled. Future thinking will help avoid the worst consequences of disasters on the horizon, such as extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis and pandemic influenzas. A global effort must be made to improve POC technologies to rapidly diagnose and treat patients to improve triaging, on-site decision making, and, ultimately, economic and medical outcomes.