Análise da correlação dos índices de estrutura e recursos humanos do serviço veterinário oficial em 2019 e as incidências acumuladas (2017 ­ 2019) de doenças de notificação obrigatória em bovinos e equinos no Brasil / Analysis of the correlation between the structure and human resources indexes of the official veterinary service in 2019 and the accumulated incidences (2017 ­ 2019) of notifiable diseases in cattle and horses in Brazil

As doenças de notificação obrigatória em bovinos podem gerar impactos sociais e econômicos significativos na cadeia pecuária brasileira, além de consequências negativas no mercado internacional devido a embargos sanitários. Para auxiliar no entendimento de como um sistema de vigilância epidemiológica com mais recursos pode gerar mais credibilidade para o país, foram realizadas análises de correlação entre a notificação de doenças e a estrutura veterinária disponível nos Órgãos Executores de Sanidade Agropecuária (OESAs), a partir dos dados contidos no Sistema Nacional de Informação Zoossanitária (SIZ), entre os anos de 2017 e 2019. Com base nos dados do serviço veterinário, foram produzidos o Índice de Estrutura Física Oficial (IEFO) e o Índice de Recursos Humanos do Serviço Oficial (IRHSO). Foi realizada análise de correlação entre a notificação de doenças de bovinos com a capacidade de estrutura física e recursos humanos de vigilância epidemiológica disponíveis no Serviço Veterinário brasileiro. Os estados AP, RR e SC foram os que mais notificaram brucelose e tuberculose no período e estão entre os melhores índices de estrutura e recursos humanos do país. A análise dos índices mostrou que a raiva não possui correlação significativa com estrutura e recursos humanos do serviço, entretanto, brucelose e tuberculose possuem correlação positiva com estrutura veterinária oficial disponível para a vigilância em bovinos. Portanto, melhorias na estrutura podem refletir no incremento dos índices de notificação das doenças de bovinos, assim como na qualidade de suas informações.

Notifiable diseases in cattle can generate significant social and economic impacts on the Brazilian livestock chain, in addition to impacts on the international market due to sanitary embargoes. To help understand how an epidemiological surveillance system with more resources can generate more credibility for the country, correlation analyzes were carried out between the notification of diseases and the veterinary structure available in the Executing Bodies of Agricultural Health (OESAs), based on the data contained in the National System of Zoosanitary Information (SIZ), between the years 2017 to 2019. Based on public data from the veterinary service, the Official Physical Structure Index (IEFO) and the Official Service Human Resources Index (IRHSO) were produced. Correlation analysis was performed between the notification of bovine diseases with the capacity of physical structure and human resources for epidemiological surveillance available in the Brazilian Veterinary Service. AP, RR and SC were the states that most notified brucellosis and tuberculosis in the period and are among the best indices of structure and human resources in the country. The analysis of correlation indices showed that the rabies disease does not have a significant correlation with the structure and the human resources of the service, however, brucellosis and tuberculosis does have a positive correlation with the official veterinary structure available for surveillance in cattle. Therefore, Improvements in the structure can reflect in the increase of the notification rates, as well as in the quality of its information.

An index for multidimensional assessment of swine health.

Pork accounts for almost one-third of the meat consumed worldwide. Infectious diseases have a marked impact on pig production. Epidemiological indicators are considered the most useful criteria in decision-making; however, a health status assessment remains a challenge at the national and regional levels. This study proposes a health index including herd-losses, morbidity, fatality, and type of diseases, to rate the health situation in a region or country; it contributes to assessing the effectiveness of control, damage manifestation, and trends. It is a multidimensional index with a structure of triads and simple quantitative, semi-quantitative, and qualitative expressions that use flexible and dynamics limits. With it, we analyzed twenty-one countries in 2005-2018, focusing on African swine fever, classical swine fever, foot-mouth-disease, and porcine respiratory and reproductive syndrome, diseases that caused 72% of the morbidity. Our multidimensional approach estimates farm, local, and regional impact from infectious agents and outbreaks, and apprises trends aiming to be useful to control measures, strategic actions, and animal health policies.

Is the French SIRE equine information system a good basis for surveillance and epidemiological research? Quality assessment using two surveys.

Accurate demographic knowledge of the equine population is needed to assess and model equine health events. France is one of the few European countries with an operational centralized database (SIRE) recording individual data on all declared equines living in France and on their owners and keepers. Our study aimed to assess SIRE database quality concerning the updating of information by equine owners and keepers with a view to its improvement and use in surveillance and research. Two online surveys were conducted with the participation of 6244 registered keepers and 13,869 owners. Results showed some inconsistencies between SIRE records and survey responses. The inconsistency rate for equines whose castration and death were not registered in the database was 28.7% and 5.9% respectively. Concerning owners, 11% of respondents did not own the reference equine selected considered by the survey, 33% had changed address without updating it in the SIRE. Concerning premises hosting equines, the keeper survey's inconsistency rate was 7.3%, of which 57 respondents had closed and 32 had opened premises without reporting it. Comparatively, the owner survey's inconsistency rate was 40.7% including respondents who owned and hosted an equine without reporting these equine premises, and owners who did not keep any equines on their premises. In conclusion, the SIRE database proved to be a valuable and reliable source for epidemiological research as long as some bias is taken into account. On the contrary, its use in surveillance is currently limited due some shortcomings in updating and/or reporting by owners and keepers.

Comparative assessment of live cyprinid and salmonid movement networks in England and Wales.

Disease poses a significant threat to aquaculture. While there are a number of factors contributing to pathogen transmission risk, movement of live fish is considered the most important. Understanding live fish movement patterns for different aquaculture sectors is therefore crucial to predicting disease occurrence and necessary for the development of effective, risk-based biosecurity, surveillance and containment policies. However, despite this, our understanding of live movement patterns of key aquaculture species, namely salmonids and cyprinids, within England and Wales remains limited. In this study, networks reflecting live fish movements associated with the cyprinid and salmonid sectors in England and Wales were constructed. The structure, composition and key attributes of each network were examined and compared to provide insight into the nature of trading patterns and connectedness, as well as highlight sites at a high risk of spreading disease. Connectivity at both site and catchment level was considered to facilitate understanding at different resolutions, providing further insight into disease outbreaks, with industry wide implications. The study highlighted that connectivity through live fish movements was extensive for both industries. The salmonid and cyprinid networks comprised 2533 and 3645 nodes, with a network density of 5.81 × 10-4 and 4.2 × 10-4, respectively. The maximum network reach of 2392 in the salmonid network was higher, both in absolute terms and as a proportion of the overall network, compared to maximum network reach of 2085 in the cyprinid network. However, in contrast, the number of sites in the cyprinid network with a network reach greater than one was 513, compared to 171 in the salmonid network. Patterns of connectivity indicated potential for more frequent yet smaller scale disease outbreaks in the cyprinid industry and less frequent but larger scale outbreaks in the salmonid industry. Further, high connectivity between river catchments within both networks was shown, posing challenges for zoning at the catchment level for the purpose of disease management. In addition to providing insight into pathogen transmission and epidemic potential within the salmonid and cyprinid networks, the study highlights the utility of network analysis, and the value of accessible, accurate live fish movement data in this context. The application of outputs from this study, and network analysis methodology, to inform future disease surveillance and control policies, both within England and Wales and more broadly, is discussed.

Towards integrated surveillance-response systems for the prevention of future pandemics.

Most human pathogens originate from non-human hosts and certain pathogens persist in animal reservoirs. The transmission of such pathogens to humans may lead to self-sustaining chains of transmission. These pathogens represent the highest risk for future pandemics. For their prevention, the transmission over the species barrier - although rare - should, by all means, be avoided. In the current COVID-19 pandemic, surprisingly though, most of the current research concentrates on the control by drugs and vaccines, while comparatively little scientific inquiry focuses on future prevention. Already in 2012, the World Bank recommended to engage in a systemic One Health approach for zoonoses control, considering integrated surveillance-response and control of human and animal diseases for primarily economic reasons. First examples, like integrated West Nile virus surveillance in mosquitos, wild birds, horses and humans in Italy show evidence of financial savings from a closer cooperation of human and animal health sectors. Provided a zoonotic origin can be ascertained for the COVID-19 pandemic, integrated wildlife, domestic animal and humans disease surveillance-response may contribute to prevent future outbreaks. In conclusion, the earlier a zoonotic pathogen can be detected in the environment, in wildlife or in domestic animals; and the better human, animal and environmental surveillance communicate with each other to prevent an outbreak, the lower are the cumulative costs.

A model for the assessment of bluetongue virus serotype 1 persistence in Spain.

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus of ruminants that has been circulating in Europe continuously for more than two decades and has become endemic in some countries such as Spain. Spain is ideal for BTV epidemiological studies since BTV outbreaks from different sources and serotypes have occurred continuously there since 2000; BTV-1 has been reported there from 2007 to 2017. Here we develop a model for BTV-1 endemic scenario to estimate the risk of an area becoming endemic, as well as to identify the most influential factors for BTV-1 persistence. We created abundance maps at 1-km2 spatial resolution for the main vectors in Spain, Culicoides imicola and Obsoletus and Pulicaris complexes, by combining environmental satellite data with occurrence models and a random forest machine learning algorithm. The endemic model included vector abundance and host-related variables (farm density). The three most relevant variables in the endemic model were the abundance of C. imicola and Obsoletus complex and density of goat farms (AUC 0.86); this model suggests that BTV-1 is more likely to become endemic in central and southwestern regions of Spain. It only requires host- and vector-related variables to identify areas at greater risk of becoming endemic for bluetongue. Our results highlight the importance of suitable Culicoides spp. prediction maps for bluetongue epidemiological studies and decision-making about control and eradication measures.

Risk Mapping of Influenza D Virus Occurrence in Ruminants and Swine in Togo Using a Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis Approach.

Influenza D virus (IDV) has been identified in several continents, with serological evidence for the virus in Africa. In order to improve the sensitivity and cost-benefit of IDV surveillance in Togo, risk maps were drawn using a spatial multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and experts' opinion to evaluate the relevance of sampling areas used so far. Areas at highest risk of IDV occurrence were the main cattle markets. The maps were evaluated with previous field surveillance data collected in Togo between 2017 and 2019: 1216 sera from cattle, small ruminants, and swine were screened for antibodies to IDV by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays. While further samples collections are needed to validate the maps, the risk maps resulting from the spatial MCDA approach generated here highlight several priority areas for IDV circulation assessment.

Assessment of bovine tuberculosis surveillance effectiveness in French wildlife: An operational approach.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic, zoonotic, bacterial disease mostly caused by Mycobacterium bovis, which can affect both domestic and wild species. France was officially declared bTB-free in 2001 but faced since 2004 an increase of the prevalence in cattle. Since 2001, bTB has been detected in several wild species: red deer (Cervus elaphus), roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), wild boar (Sus scrofa) and badger (Meles meles). Infected wild species constitute a major threat, because they may contribute to the maintenance of the infection in cattle and prevent eradication. In 2011, a surveillance system, Sylvatub, was implemented nationwide, to monitor the epidemiological status of bTB in mainland France. Our objective in this study was to assess the effectiveness of one of Sylvatub's passive surveillance system components (SSCs), which is based on the visual inspection of hunted animals (wild boars, red and roe deer) throughout mainland France. The following effectiveness criteria were evaluated: individual-level and component group-level positive and negative predictive values, and individual-level and component group-level probabilities of type I error ("false-positive" error) and type II error ("false-negative" error). These criteria were estimated quantitatively, at the scale of the département (a French administrative area of similar size to a county), with a stochastic scenario tree model. Individual negative predictive values were high, whereas individual positive predictive values were poor, whatever the species considered, and the training of hunters did not improve these effectiveness criteria sufficiently. The individual-level probability of type I error was relatively low, but the individual-level probability of type II error was generally high and was therefore an issue. However, increasing the proportion of trained hunters decreased this probability effectively. At group level, the size of the population surveyed had a marked impact on the effectiveness criteria: both the component group-level negative predictive value and the component group-level probability of type II error decreased rapidly with increasing population size. The conclusions drawn from such rationale may directly benefit stakeholders and actors in the field in their day to day practice of the surveillance processes. Thus, the assessment method used in this article presents the advantage of being operational, as well as being applicable to any surveillance system.

Integrating data of veterinarians' practices in assessing the cost effectiveness of three components of the bovine tuberculosis surveillance system by intradermal tuberculin testing in French cattle farms through a scenario-tree approach.

Disease surveillance systems' effectiveness relies on participants following prescribed practices. We developed a general method to improve a previous cost-effectiveness evaluation of three French screening program protocols for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) to account for the practices of participants by scenario tree modelling. This method relies on: 1) semi-directive interviews of participants to identify the variability of practices and potentially influential factors, and to understand the sociological context; 2) a quantitative survey, based on multiple-choice questions, to quantify various practices and identify significantly influential factors by multivariable regression analyses; 3) addition of the scenario-tree nodes corresponding to the practices and their influential factors and configuration of the new limbs according to the data of the quantitative survey. We used this approach to integrate data concerning veterinary practices and identify some failures to conform to regulatory guidelines regarding intradermal cervical comparative tuberculin test (SICCT) (testing and notification of non-negative results). Such nonconformities appeared to be mainly caused by cattle restraint issues and the perception of veterinarians of the bTB control program. Indeed, their perception of that program significantly influenced veterinarians' practices. We modelled the influence of the SICCT practices on the SICCT results. The incorporation of these data led to a major decrease of the herd sensitivity estimations relative to the previous assessments that did not incorporate data of practices (15% to 42% decrease). This result shows the important impact of veterinarians' practices and their influencing factors (such as perception of the bTB control program) on the effectiveness of the surveillance system.

Assessment of the sensitivity of the bovine tuberculosis eradication program in a high prevalence region of Spain using scenario tree modeling.

In spite of the efforts invested to eradicate bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle, the disease is still present in several developed countries, including Spain. Among the factors related with disease persistence in high prevalence areas, the lack of sensitivity of the screening test for detection of infected herds [single intradermal tuberculin (SIT) test] can play a major role. Here, a scenario tree model mimicking the diagnostic test scheme in place in the region of Castilla y Leon (Spain) was developed to estimate the probability of detecting bTB in an infected-non detected officially tuberculosis free (OTF) herd (herd sensitivity, HSe). In order to do so the probability of detecting at least one positive animal in the SIT test with/without post-mortem (detection of lesions and culture) confirmation in an infected herd was estimated using Monte Carlo simulation through @RISK (Palisade Co, NY, USA). Uncertainty on the accuracy of the diagnostic tests was introduced in the model using distributions based on the literature. The performance of the model was evaluated by comparing the predicted number of SIT/post-mortem positive animals in infected herds with those observed in newly detected bTB-infected herds in the region in 2011-2015. The estimated HSe of the SIT test was 76.2% (95% probability interval: 19.8-97.6). According to the model, bTB infection would be then confirmed through culture in 65.3% (95% PI: 50.0-82.3) of the herds detected through the SIT test, so that overall the proportion of infected-non detected OTF herds in which the infection could be confirmed after the initial SIT test was 49.6% (95% PI: 9.75-80.3). The predicted HSe of both SIT test and culture was directly correlated with herd size. Results from the model suggest a moderate but highly variable HSe of the current surveillance system in place for bTB detection in OTF herds located in high prevalence areas, that could be maximized by performing multiple tests within a year as indicated in the Spanish eradication program (with a median SIT HSe of 87% when two consecutive tests were considered). In addition, these results highlight the usefulness of performing subsequent SIT tests to rule out infection in SIT-positive herds even when the causative agent cannot be isolated.

The RISKSUR EVA tool (Survtool): A tool for the integrated evaluation of animal health surveillance systems.

Information about infectious diseases at the global level relies on effective, efficient and sustainable national and international surveillance systems. Surveillance systems need to be regularly evaluated to ensure their performance, the quality of the data and information provided, as well as to allocate resources efficiently. Currently available frameworks for evaluation of surveillance systems in animal or human health often treat technical, process and socio-economic aspects separately instead of integrating them. The surveillance evaluation (EVA) tool, a support tool for the evaluation of animal health surveillance systems, was developed to provide guidance for integrated evaluation of animal health surveillance including economic evaluation. The tool was developed by international experts in surveillance and evaluation in an iterative process of development, testing and revision taking into account existing frameworks and guidance, scientific literature and expert opinion. The EVA tool encompasses a web interface for users to develop an evaluation plan, a Wiki classroom to provide theoretical information on all required concepts and a generic evaluation work plan to facilitate implementation and reporting of outputs to decision makers. The tool was tested by planning and conducting epidemiological and economic evaluations of surveillance for classical and African swine fever, bovine virus diarrhoea, avian influenza, and Salmonella Dublin in five European countries. These practical applications highlighted the importance of a comprehensive evaluation approach to improve the quality of the evaluation outputs (economic evaluation; multiple attributes assessment) and demonstrated the usefulness of the guidance provided by the EVA tool. At the same time they showed that comprehensive evaluations might be constrained by practical issues (e.g. confidentiality concerns, data availability) and resource scarcity. In the long term, the EVA tool is expected to increase professional evaluation capacity and help optimising animal health surveillance system efficiency and resource allocation for both public and private actors of the surveillance systems.

Improving risk assessment of the emergence of novel influenza A viruses by incorporating environmental surveillance.

Reassortment is an evolutionary mechanism by which influenza A viruses (IAV) generate genetic novelty. Reassortment is an important driver of host jumps and is widespread according to retrospective surveillance studies. However, predicting the epidemiological risk of reassortant emergence in novel hosts from surveillance data remains challenging. IAV strains persist and co-occur in the environment, promoting co-infection during environmental transmission. These conditions offer opportunity to understand reassortant emergence in reservoir and spillover hosts. Specifically, environmental RNA could provide rich information for understanding the evolutionary ecology of segmented viruses, and transform our ability to quantify epidemiological risk to spillover hosts. However, significant challenges with recovering and interpreting genomic RNA from the environment have impeded progress towards predicting reassortant emergence from environmental surveillance data. We discuss how the fields of genomics, experimental ecology and epidemiological modelling are well positioned to address these challenges. Coupling quantitative disease models and natural transmission studies with new molecular technologies, such as deep-mutational scanning and single-virus sequencing of environmental samples, should dramatically improve our understanding of viral co-occurrence and reassortment. We define observable risk metrics for emerging molecular technologies and propose a conceptual research framework for improving accuracy and efficiency of risk prediction. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.

Epidemiological assessment of clinical poultry cases through the government veterinary hospital-based passive surveillance system in Bangladesh: a case study.

An epidemiological assessment of clinical poultry cases recorded through the existing passive surveillance at Kishoreganj District Veterinary Hospital during February-March 2016 was performed. A total of 200 cases (87 layers, 80 broilers, 21 ducks, and 12 pigeons) were included in this evaluation. The present study attempted to demonstrate the usefulness of passive surveillance data in quantifying the relative burden of poultry cases and their distribution along with drug prescription patterns. The cases were diagnosed based on clinical history, clinical signs, and observable post-mortem lesions by the registered veterinarian or intern veterinarian. The most prevalent diseases in chickens were infectious bursal disease (IBD) (31.7%; CI (confidence interval) 24.7-39.3%), coccidiosis (22.8%; CI 16.6-29.8%), Newcastle disease (ND) (21.6%; CI 15.5-28.5%), and coli-enteritis (8.4%; CI 4.6-13.6%). The most prevalent disease in ducks was duck plague (DP) (76.6%; CI 52.8-91.7%). Newcastle disease was most prevalent (66.7%; CI 34.8-90.0%) in pigeons. Infectious bursal disease, aspergillosis, and colibacillosis respectively were seen in a higher proportion of cases in broiler chickens than in layer chickens (58.7%, 12.5%, and 11.2% vs. 6.9%, 1.1%, and 3.4%; p ≤ 0.05). Contrarily, ND was seen in greater proportion of cases in layer chickens (32.1%) than in broiler chickens (10.0%) (p < 0.001). Infectious bursal disease, ND, coccidiosis, and aspergillosis were higher in older age broilers than in younger broilers (p ≤ 0.05). Antibiotics were often used to treat the poultry diseases such as trimethoprim with sulpha drugs (41%), ciprofloxacin (39%), sulphadiazine (27.5%), and erythromycin (26%). Through the present study, we can see how a passive surveillance system would be an effective tool for delineating disease distributions and common treatment regimens, thus helping to mitigate disease prevalence.

Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) virus serological surveillance in goats in Lao PDR: Issues for disease eradication in a low-resource disease-free setting.

Peste des Petits ruminants (PPR) is an economically important transboundary viral disease of goats. This study aimed to determine a baseline of serological evidence for Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) in Lao goats. A total of 1,072 serum samples were collected by convenience sampling across five provinces in Laos and tested for antibody response to PPRV using a commercially available competitive ELISA. Positive antibody responses were found in 2.2% (95% CI 1.4, 3.2) of the samples. True prevalence calculations indicated a total overall sample prevalence of 1.7% (95% CI 0.9, 2.8). The highest provincial seroprevalences were Xiangkhouang (3.5%, 95% CI 1.6, 6.9) and Xayaboury (2.9% (95% CI 1.3, 5.7). There was no association between antibody response and each of the following factors: location, breed, gender or age. Considering the apparent absence of disease manifestation of PPR in Laos, likely explanations for the antibody positivity could include cross reaction to other Morbilliviruses such as Measles or Canine Distemper, importation of pre-vaccinated goats, need for test cut-off re-evaluation to be region specific, or a subclinical and a less virulent circulating virus. This study highlights that the sampled Lao goat population is highly likely to be naïve to PPRV and therefore at risk of an outbreak, possibly by transboundary incursion of livestock from PPR endemic China. Further work is required in the testing of small ruminants in Laos that may eventually provide evidence for a status of freedom from disease, particularly in support of programs aimed at global PPR eradication.

Modeling cost-effectiveness of risk-based bovine tuberculosis surveillance in Minnesota.

In the United States, slaughter surveillance combined with other measures has effectively maintained a very low prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB). However, bTB continues to be sporadically detected, causing substantial economic burden to the government and cattle producers. To detect the infection earlier and reduce sudden economic losses, additional risk-based surveillance of live animals might be more cost-effective than slaughter surveillance alone to detect and prevent bTB infection. The objective of this study was to evaluate alternative risk-based surveillance strategies targeting high-risk herds to complement slaughter surveillance in a region with very low bTB prevalence. We developed an integrated within- and between-herd bTB transmission model with simulated premises-level cattle movements among beef and dairy herds in Minnesota for 10 years. We constructed ten risk-based surveillance strategies for beef herds and dairy herds, and predicted the epidemiological outcomes and costs for each strategy in combination with slaughter surveillance. Our models showed that slaughter surveillance alone resulted in low risk of between-herd transmission with typically small outbreak sizes, and also cost less compared to alternative risk-based surveillance measures. However, risk-based surveillance strategies could reduce the time to detect infection and the time to reach disease freedom by up to 9 months. At a higher initial prevalence, alternative risk-based surveillance could reduce the number of infected herds and shorten the time to disease freedom by almost 3 years (34-35 months). Our findings suggest that risk-based surveillance could detect infection more quickly and allow affected regions to reach disease freedom faster. If the bTB status of the affected regions changes after an outbreak happens, the reduced time to disease freedom could reduce the economic impact on the affected region.

Web monitoring of emerging animal infectious diseases integrated in the French Animal Health Epidemic Intelligence System.

Since 2013, the French Animal Health Epidemic Intelligence System (in French: Veille Sanitaire Internationale, VSI) has been monitoring signals of the emergence of new and exotic animal infectious diseases worldwide. Once detected, the VSI team verifies the signals and issues early warning reports to French animal health authorities when potential threats to France are detected. To improve detection of signals from online news sources, we designed the Platform for Automated extraction of Disease Information from the web (PADI-web). PADI-web automatically collects, processes and extracts English-language epidemiological information from Google News. The core component of PADI-web is a combined information extraction (IE) method founded on rule-based systems and data mining techniques. The IE approach allows extraction of key information on diseases, locations, dates, hosts and the number of cases mentioned in the news. We evaluated the combined method for IE on a dataset of 352 disease-related news reports mentioning the diseases involved, locations, dates, hosts and the number of cases. The combined method for IE accurately identified (F-score) 95% of the diseases and hosts, respectively, 85% of the number of cases, 83% of dates and 80% of locations from the disease-related news. We assessed the sensitivity of PADI-web to detect primary outbreaks of four emerging animal infectious diseases notifiable to the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE). From January to June 2016, PADI-web detected signals for 64% of all primary outbreaks of African swine fever, 53% of avian influenza, 25% of bluetongue and 19% of foot-and-mouth disease. PADI-web timely detected primary outbreaks of avian influenza and foot-and-mouth disease in Asia, i.e. they were detected 8 and 3 days before immediate notification to OIE, respectively.

SurF: an innovative framework in biosecurity and animal health surveillance evaluation.

Surveillance for biosecurity hazards is being conducted by the New Zealand Competent Authority, the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) to support New Zealand's biosecurity system. Surveillance evaluation should be an integral part of the surveillance life cycle, as it provides a means to identify and correct problems and to sustain and enhance the existing strengths of a surveillance system. The surveillance evaluation Framework (SurF) presented here was developed to provide a generic framework within which the MPI biosecurity surveillance portfolio, and all of its components, can be consistently assessed. SurF is an innovative, cross-sectoral effort that aims to provide a common umbrella for surveillance evaluation in the animal, plant, environment and aquatic sectors. It supports the conduct of the following four distinct components of an evaluation project: (i) motivation for the evaluation, (ii) scope of the evaluation, (iii) evaluation design and implementation and (iv) reporting and communication of evaluation outputs. Case studies, prepared by MPI subject matter experts, are included in the framework to guide users in their assessment. Three case studies were used in the development of SurF in order to assure practical utility and to confirm usability of SurF across all included sectors. It is anticipated that the structured approach and information provided by SurF will not only be of benefit to MPI but also to other New Zealand stakeholders. Although SurF was developed for internal use by MPI, it could be applied to any surveillance system in New Zealand or elsewhere.

A cost-benefit analysis and the potential trade effects of the bovine viral diarrhoea eradication programme in Styria, Austria.

This study evaluated the voluntary and compulsory implementation of a bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) eradication programme in the Austrian Federal State of Styria, Austria, from an economic point of view using ex-post assessment of costs and benefits (disease losses avoided). An economic net benefit (benefit:cost ratio, BCR=1.18) of the programme was demonstrated during the voluntary programme phase (January 1998-July 2004). The break-even point was reached in 2003. If investments in the compulsory programme (August 2004-December 2016) were taken into account, a net economic loss (BCR=0.16) was demonstrated. In contrast to on-going annual testing of all cattle herds, annual testing in accordance with a revised sampling scheme could reduce total surveillance costs by more than 77%. A Bayesian structural time series model was applied to analyse a hypothesised positive impact of the compulsory BVDV programme on the Styrian cattle export market. The average number of exported cows and bulls increased significantly by 42% (P=0.03) and 47% (P=0.01), respectively, and the producer price increased by 14% (P=0.00) and 5% (P=0.16), respectively, during the compulsory programme period compared with the period prior to intervention. This equates to an average revenue increase of €29,754 for cows and €137,563 for bulls per month. These results justify the implementation of eradication programmes, which initially may not appear to be economically viable, particularly if trade effects are not included in the calculations.

Combining public participatory surveillance and occupancy modelling to predict the distributional response of Ixodes scapularis to climate change.

Ixodes scapularis, a known vector of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (Bbss), is undergoing range expansion in many parts of Canada. The province of New Brunswick, which borders jurisdictions with established populations of I. scapularis, constitutes a range expansion zone for this species. To better understand the current and potential future distribution of this tick under climate change projections, this study applied occupancy modelling to distributional records of adult ticks that successfully overwintered, obtained through passive surveillance. This study indicates that I. scapularis occurs throughout the southern-most portion of the province, in close proximity to coastlines and major waterways. Milder winter conditions, as indicated by the number of degree days <0 °C, was determined to be a strong predictor of tick occurrence, as was, to a lesser degree, rising levels of annual precipitation, leading to a final model with a predictive accuracy of 0.845 (range: 0.828-0.893). Both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate projections predict that a significant proportion of the province (roughly a quarter to a third) will be highly suitable for I. scapularis by the 2080s. Comparison with cases of canine infection show good spatial agreement with baseline model predictions, but the presence of canine Borrelia infections beyond the climate envelope, defined by the highest probabilities of tick occurrence, suggest the presence of Bbss-carrying ticks distributed by long-range dispersal events. This research demonstrates that predictive statistical modelling of multi-year surveillance information is an efficient way to identify areas where I. scapularis is most likely to occur, and can be used to guide subsequent active sampling efforts in order to better understand fine scale species distributional patterns.

Achieving an optimal allocation of resources for animal health surveillance, intervention and disease mitigation.

The primary role of animal health economics is to inform decision-making by determining optimal investments for animal health. Animal health surveillance produces information to guide interventions. Consequently, investments in surveillance and intervention must be evaluated together. This article explores the different theoretical frameworks and methods developed to assess and optimise the spending of resources in surveillance and intervention and their technical interdependence. The authors present frameworks that define the relationship between health investment and losses due to disease, and the relationship between surveillance and intervention resources. Surveillance and intervention are usually considered as technical substitutes, since increased investments in surveillance reduce the level of intervention resources required to reach the same benefit. The authors also discuss approaches used to quantify externalities and non-monetary impacts. Finally, they describe common economic evaluation types, including optimisation, acceptability and least-cost studies.

L'économie de la santé animale a pour rôle primordial d'étayer la prise de décisions en définissant les meilleurs investissements en santé animale. Les activités de surveillance de la santé animale permettent de réunir les informations nécessaires pour guider les interventions. Par conséquent, il est nécessaire d'évaluer en même temps les investissements dans la surveillance et ceux dans les interventions. Les auteurs exposent les différents cadres théoriques et méthodologiques permettant d'évaluer et d'optimiser l'utilisation des ressources allouées à la surveillance et aux interventions et en font ressortir l'interdépendance technique. Les cadres présentés mettent en rapport les investissements dans la santé avec les pertes dues aux maladies et définissent les relations entre les ressources allouées à la surveillance et celles allouées aux interventions. La surveillance et les interventions sont généralement considérées comme des substitus tecniques, dans la mesure où toute augmentation des investissements dans la surveillance réduit d'autant le volume des ressources allouées aux interventions, pour un bénéfice équivalent. Les auteurs examinent également les approches utilisées pour quantifier les externalités ainsi que les impacts non monétaires. Enfin, ils décrivent plusieurs types d'évaluations économiques courantes, dont l'optimisation, l'acceptabilité et les analyses du moindre coût.

La economía de la sanidad animal tiene por función básica fundamentar la adopción de decisiones por el expediente de determinar cuáles son las inversiones óptimas desde el punto de vista zoosanitario. La vigilancia zoosanitaria genera información con la cual orientar las intervenciones. Por consiguiente, es necesario evaluar conjuntamente las inversiones en vigilancia y las destinadas a intervenciones. Los autores examinan los diferentes métodos y marcos teóricos que se han elaborado para evaluar y optimizar el gasto de recursos en labores de vigilancia y en intervenciones, así como su interdependencia técnica. En este sentido, presentan una serie de marcos que definen la relación entre inversiones en sanidad y pérdidas por enfermedades y la relación entre recursos para vigilancia y recursos para intervenciones. En general se considera que la vigilancia y las intervenciones son técnicamente interdependientes, toda vez que una mayor inversión en vigilancia reduce la cuantía de los recursos para intervenciones que hacen falta para obtener el mismo beneficio. Los autores también reflexionan sobre los métodos empleados para cuantificar los factores externos (externalidades) y las repercusiones no monetarias. Por último, describen los tipos más frecuentes de evaluación económica, como los de optimización, aceptabilidad o análisis del costo mínimo.