Modern models for predicting bankruptcy to detect early signals of business failure: Evidence from Montenegro.

This paper explores predicting early signals of business failure using modern models for bankruptcy prediction. It reviews how continuous operations enhance market value, strengthening competitiveness and reputation among stakeholders. The study involves medium and large companies in the Montenegrin market from 2015 to 2020, comprising 30 bankrupt and 70 financially stable firms. Logistic regression is also employed to create a logit model for early detection of bankruptcy signals in companies. This research establishes the empirical validity of modern models in predicting business failure in the Montenegrin market, particularly through logistic regression. Significant indicators, such as the Degree of Indebtedness (DI) and turnover ratio of business assets (TR), exhibit strong predictive power with a p-value less than 0.001 according to Likelihood ratio tests. The paper underscores the potential benefits of bankruptcy prediction for both internal and external stakeholders, especially investors, in enhancing the competitiveness of Montenegro's large and medium-sized companies. Notably, the research contributes by bridging the gap between theory and practice in Montenegro, as bankruptcy prediction models have not been extensively applied in the market. The authors suggest the possible applicability of the created logit model to neighboring countries with similar economic development levels. In that sense, the concept of predicting bankruptcy is positioned as integral to corporate strategy, impacting the overall reduction of bankruptcies. The paper concludes by highlighting its role as a foundation for future research, addressing the literature gap in the application of bankruptcy prediction models in Montenegro. The created logit model, tailored to the specific needs of Montenegrin companies, is presented as an original contribution, emphasizing its potential to strengthen the competitiveness of companies in the market.

Health policy developments in the Western Balkan Countries 2000-19: towards European Health and Health Care Policies.

BACKGROUND: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia have committed to becoming European Union (EU) member states. This, among others, implies that candidate/potential candidate states adopt legally authorized EU policies, including health. The study aims to identify the main country-specific health policy areas critical to the EU accession health policy dimension and present the change in associated selected health indicators from 2000 to 2019. METHODS: The study draws on published reports and analyses of official statistics over time and cross-country. Health care policy adherence to the European Commission's recommended country-specific health actions was classified into five health policy areas: financing, payment, organization, regulation and persuasion. Key health policy areas for Western Balkan countries (WBCs) were identified. Health progress or lack thereof in catching up to the EU15 population health, health expenditure and the number of health professionals are measured. RESULTS: The European Commission prioritized financing and regulation for all WBCs in the five policy areas. Nine of the 18 analyzed selected health indicators showed divergence, and the other nine converged towards the EU15 averages. WBCs continue to face diverse public health challenges in improving life expectancy at birth, death rates caused by circulatory system diseases, malignant neoplasms, traffic accidents, psychoactive substance use, tuberculosis incidence, tobacco smoking prevalence and public-sector health expenditure. CONCLUSIONS: By 2019, there is limited evidence of WBCs catching up to the average EU15 health levels and health care policies. Closer attention towards EU health and health care policies would be favourable.

Roadmap to improve the organized cancer screening programs - The case of colorectal cancer screening in Montenegro.

BACKGROUND: Implementation of organized cancer screening programs comes with many challenges and barriers, which may inhibit the achievement of the screening activities' desired benefits. In this paper we outline a plan for improving the colorectal cancer (CRC) screening system in Montenegro. METHODS: We formulated a roadmap, which was generally defined as a country-specific strategic plan to improve cancer screening programs. The roadmap development was an iterative, step-by-step process. First, we described the current screening program, then identified and described key barriers, and finally proposed actions to overcome them. Multiple sources of information (e.g., documents, expert opinions) were collected and processed by local and international stakeholders. RESULTS: The CRC screening program was implemented between 2013-2019 by gradually increasing the invitation of the target population. Key barriers of the implementation were defined: 1) Lack of colonoscopy capacity in the northern part of the country; 2) Inadequate information technology systems; 3) Inadequate public promotion of screening. The defined actions were related to overcoming lack of available resources (e.g., financial, human and technological), to improve the policy environment and the knowledge, and to facilitate information sharing. CONCLUSION: The collaboration between local stakeholders of CRC screening and researchers experienced in planning and evaluating screening programs resulted in the first comprehensive description of CRC screening in Montenegro, detailed understanding of key barriers that emerged during implementation and a carefully designed list of actions. The implementation of these actions and the evaluation of whether barriers were solved will be captured in the upcoming period by maintaining this collaboration.

Assessment of macro-, trace- and toxic elements in Small Indian mongoose, Herpestes auropunctatus (Hodgson, 1836), from Montenegro: potential use for biomonitoring.

The aim of this study was to determine the concentrations of 28 elements in the liver, kidney, muscle, and heart of a small Indian mongoose from Montenegro. Element concentrations were determined using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). Significant differences in elemental concentrations between analyzed tissues were observed for Ag, Al, Cu, Fe, Hg, K, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, P, S, Se, and Zn. The concentrations of Ag, Fe, Mo, and S were significantly different between all analyzed tissues. Muscle tissue is characterised by higher concentrations of some macroelements (K, Mg, S) and liver tissue by higher concentrations of some trace elements (Fe, Mn, Mo, and Zn). Cardiac tissue could be the target organ for bioaccumulation of Ag and Se. The molar ratio Se:Hg was higher than 1 in all studied tissues. There were few significant differences between element concentrations in mongooses from three analyzed (Airport, Saline, Inland) groups. Significantly higher concentrations of Ag and Se were found in liver tissue of Inland mongooses compared to animals from Airport and Saline. There were few significant differences (Zn in liver and muscle, Fe in muscle) in element concentrations between females and males.

Developmental characteristics of younger school-aged boys in relation to the socio-economic environment / Características del desarrollo de niños menores en edad escolar en relación con el entorno socioeconómico

SUMMARY: The main goal of this research was to determine whether there is a statistically significant difference in the anthropometric characteristics of fourth grade elementary school students, who live in different demographic environments in Montenegro. The research was conducted on a sample of 120 students, fourth grade elementary school, male (60 students from urban areas and 60 students from rural areas). To measure anthropometric characteristics, 12 measures were applied (Body height, arm length, leg length, shoulder width, elbow diameter, knee diameter, body weight, upper arm circumference, lower leg circumference, skin fold of the back, skin fold of the upper arm, skin fold of the abdomen). After conducting research with the application of appropriate statistical procedures: descriptive analysis, multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) and analysis of variance (ANOVA), it was noticed that there is a statistically significant difference in the treated space of anthropometric characteristics. Boys from rural areas are more dominant than boys from urban areas in the longitudinal and transverse dimensionality of the skeleton and in volume on certain body segments, and boys from urban areas are more dominant than boys from rural areas in body weight and subcutaneous fat, which puts them at risk for obesity.

El objetivo principal de esta investigación fue determinar si existe una diferencia estadísticamente significativa en las características antropométricas de los estudiantes de cuarto grado de primaria, que viven en diferentes entornos demográficos en Montenegro. La investigación se realizó sobre una muestra de 120 estudiantes, cuarto grado de primaria, sexo masculino (60 estudiantes de zona urbana y 60 estudiantes de zona rural). Para medir las características antropométricas se aplicaron 12 medidas (Altura del cuerpo, longitud del brazo, longitud de la pierna, ancho del hombro, diámetro del codo, diámetro de la rodilla, peso corporal, circunferencia del brazo, circunferencia de la pierna, pliegue de la piel de la espalda, pliegue de la piel de la parte superior brazo, pliegue cutáneo del abdomen). Después de realizar la investigación con la aplicación de los procedimientos estadísticos apropiados: análisis descriptivo, análisis de varianza multivariante (MANOVA) y análisis de varianza (ANOVA), se observó que existe una diferencia estadísticamente significativa en el espacio tratado de características antropométricas. Los niños de áreas rurales son más dominantes que los niños de áreas urbanas en la dimensionalidad longitudinal y transversal del esqueleto y en volumen en ciertos segmentos del cuerpo, y los niños de áreas urbanas son más dominantes que los niños de áreas rurales en peso corporal y grasa subcutánea, lo que los pone en riesgo de obesidad.

Eighth high-level meeting of the Small Countries Initiative: Bečići (Budva), Montenegro, 2–3 June 2022: towards better health and well-being in the small countries in the WHO European Region: meeting report

The Small Countries Initiative (SCI) is a WHO Regional Office for Europe platform that enables countries with populations of 2 million and less to work together on sharing experiences in addressing common issues with the aim of improving health in the WHO European Region and beyond. SCI’s annual high-level meetings provide a forum for countries to come together, report on progress and plan future joint activities. The Eighth high-level meeting of the SCI, entitled “Towards better heath and well-being in the small countries in the WHO European Region”, took place in Bečići (Budva), Montenegro, on 2–3 June 2022, the first in-person meeting of the Initiative since 2019. It brought the 11 member countries together, along with other partners, to discuss how to strengthen health-system preparedness and response, mobilize financial and human resources, and strengthen health and well-being through sustainable tourism. The “Roadmap towards better health in small countries of the WHO European Region, 2022–2025” and the Montenegro Statement were adopted during the meeting. While placing health at the centre of sustainable tourism, the countries made concrete commitments to better addressing uncertainty, emergency response and recovery, financial hardship, and the lack of human resources for health.

Heavy metal assessment in agricultural soils and vegetables in the vicinity of industrial pollutants in the Pljevlja municipality (Montenegro): ecological and health risk approach.

This paper aims to assess ecological and health risks associated with heavy metal (As, Hg, Cd, Pb, Cu, Zn, Cr) content in agricultural soils and vegetables (potato tuber, beetroot, onion bulb, carrot root) collected near the lead and zinc mine (MLZ), coal-fired power station (CFPS) and coal mine (CM) located in Pljevlja municipality (Montenegro). The ecological risk of soil was estimated using the ecological risk index (RI) and pollution load index (PLI). The health risk was evaluated through different soil exposure pathways (ingestion, inhalation, dermal contact) and vegetable consumption. The pollution indices RI and PLI indicated the highest contamination in MLZ study area followed by CM and CFPS areas. RI values revealed considerable contamination in MLZ and CM study areas, while CFPS area is moderately contaminated by heavy metals. According to PLI, soil in MLZ and CM areas is classified as polluted, while the soil in the vicinity of CFPS is classified as unpolluted. Non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks through soil exposure were identified for both children and adults, in all investigated areas. Dermal contact was identified as the main contributor to carcinogenic risk. Dermal contact was also identified as the main exposure pathway for non-carcinogenic risk in MLZ area, while for CFPS and CM areas, ingestion was the main exposure route. As for vegetables, only Cu and Zn were detected in all examined vegetables. Non-cancerogenic health risk of edible vegetable consumption was found for children in all study areas, while there was no health risk for adults.

Europeanization of health policy in post-communist European societies: Comparison of six Western Balkan countries.

Europeanization is assumed to influence health policy in the Western Balkans, but little is known about the actual impact of this process in these countries which constitute a complex geopolitical region of Europe. In this context, we used time trends to explore the Western Balkans health policies during the Europeanization through a cross-country comparative analysis of six countries. We conducted a health policy analysis by adapting the framework for globalization and population health coined by Huynen et al. in 2005. We analyzed 90 progress reports of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia from 2005 to 2020. In particular, we considered chapter 28 on "Consumer and health protection" and other chapters that contained the words "health" or "population health". Evidence indicates that Europeanization influences Western Balkans' policies at different levels. Western Balkan countries revise national legislation in accordance with new European Union acquis as addressed in the progress reports and build cooperation with international institutions. They build national health reforms and reorganize relevant institutions to better address regulations in accordance to Europeanization. However, it is necessary to monitor law implementation so that the current legislation is enforced and further positive impact can be measured on population health.

Effectiveness of tax policy changes in Montenegro: smoking behaviour by socio-economic status.

BACKGROUND: The main goal of this study was to examine the responsiveness of smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption to price and income changes by income groups and the effectiveness of tax policy changes to reduce cigarette consumption in Montenegro. DATA AND METHODS: A two-part model was applied to estimate smoking participation, smoking intensity price and income elasticity. The first part of the model applies logit regression, while the second uses Deaton's model to improve the validity and objectivity of conditional (smoking intensity) elasticity results. A generalised linear model (GLM) was applied to verify robustness. The reason for this is that Deaton's model is commonly used in the analysis of Household Budget Survey (HBS) data, especially when households do not report the market price. Moreover, using this model, it is possible to capture the shading of quality to price change. The analysis used HBS data (2006-2017). RESULTS: The estimates indicate that tobacco pricing policies had a much higher impact on smoking prevalence in the low-income group (price elasticity of -0.595) relative to the high-income group (price elasticity of -0.344). The same conclusion could be drawn for the smoking intensity elasticity: the high-income group was the least affected by changes in price (price elasticity of -0.258). At the same time, the most affected was the low-income group, with price elasticity of -0.424. Poorer households spent a larger share of their budget on cigarettes. The simulation results confirm that increases in the specific excise taxes of 58.3% on tobacco would reduce total cigarette consumption by 11.25% while increasing the collection of government revenue by 8.07%. CONCLUSION: Smoking prevalence and consumption are very responsive to price and income changes, with considerable differences in elasticities between income groups. The taxation policy has a positive impact on changing patterns of consumption and public revenues across each income group. Low-income and middle-income households would benefit the most, while on the other hand, the highest revenue collection was generated from the wealthiest group. Our results align with results obtained so far for other low-income and middle-income countries. This paper contributes to the analysis of the smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption responsiveness to price and income changes, which was conducted for the first time in Montenegro.

Ethnic Stereotype Formation and Its Impact on Sojourner Adaptation: A Case of "Belt and Road" Chinese Migrant Workers in Montenegro.

Ethnic stereotypes are cognitive markers that are formed and modified because of intercultural contact with a new cultural group. There is now much empirical evidence that explicates how stereotypes of ethnic groups can impact individuals' acculturation experiences. However, what is unknown is how previously nonexistent ethnic beliefs are formed as a result of contact with the local culture. One hundred and seventy-four (N = 174) overseas Chinese construction workers were contacted through the Chinese Consulate in Montenegro and agreed to participate in the present study. The online questionnaire asked workers to describe Montenegrin majority members in terms of five characteristics. These traits formed the stereotype markers that were classified as positive, neutral, or negative. Sojourners also answered questions that measured perceived cultural distance, social exclusion, knowledge of Montenegrin culture, feelings of social exclusion, and their sociocultural adaptation. Results show that both positive and negative stereotypes are correlated with less social exclusion and better socio-cultural adaptation. Perceived cultural distance, knowledge of host culture and length of stay was mediated by stereotypes on adaptation outcomes. Interestingly longer sojourn did not lessen the type of stereotype, nor did it reduce cultural distance. Contribution to the stereotype literature and practical understanding of how Chinese sojourners see majority members will be discussed.

Family Policy and Child Well-Being: The Case of Montenegro in the European Perspective.

Family policies and family support measures have been identified as having major implications for child well-being, particularly through their role in influencing parental and family resources, circumstances and behaviour. The official approach to family policies focuses on opportunities for families to balance their work and family duties and care for their children. This paper analyses the type of policies available in Montenegro compared to the European Union. Potentially, Montenegro will become an EU member state, thus it is important to take a look at Montenegrin practice, as children should have equal life chances and protection of their well-being. Having a solid legal framework per se does not necessarily result in significant positive outcomes, and this paper analyses whether children in Montenegro have the same opportunities for development, in the context of family policies, as their counterparts in the rest of Europe. The focus of the paper will be on the criteria that define family rights and obligations, eligibility, availability and use of family policies in Montenegro. Based on the specific measures and datasets examined, the analysis considers the degree to which a period of family policy investment in Montenegro has been accompanied by improvements in child well-being and family resources, and undertakes comparisons in these regards with EU-wide family policy and child well-being trends. The paper uses a welfare state theoretical approach, with the focus on social investment and relevant data on children's well-being obtained from the Eurostat, the OECD and the official national statistics.

Utilization of Mycophenolic Acid, Azathioprine, Tacrolimus, Cyclosporin, Sirolimus, and Everolimus: Multinational Study.

Background: Organ transplantations are difficult, complicated and very expensive interventions. In order to preserve the transplanted organs, it is necessary to provide medical care to the patients in terms of immunosuppression. According to the guidelines, the first-line therapy choices for achieving immunosuppression after transplantation are tacrolimus, cyclosporine, mycophenolic acid, azathioprine, sirolimus, everolimus" and corticosteroids. The aim of our study was to examine the utilization of this drugs in Montenegro and to compare the results with the ones from Finland, Croatia, and Serbia. Methods: In our investigation we used Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical/Defined Daily Dose (ATC/DDD) methodology. Prices per DDD of drugs are presented in euros (€). Results: In all observed countries, there is a positive trend in the consumption of all 6 drugs during the analyzed period. The prices per DDD of these drugs generally show a negative trend. Tacrolimus and mycophenolic acid in Montenegro recorded the largest reduction in the price per DDD. Price per one DDD of tacrolimus decreased from €13.28 in 2009 to €5.11 in 2019, thus by about 260%, and as regards mycophenolic acid, the price per one DDD decreased from €9.59 in 2009 to € 3.36 in 2019, thus by almost 300%. Conclusion: Despite the reduction in the price per DDD, drugs that are used as immunosuppressants are showing increasing costs from year to year. Since these drugs are expensive, they participate in a significant percentage in the budget for medicines in each country.

The socio-economic status of families experiencing the sudden unexpected death of an infant - Is it possibly related to a higher rate of non-natural deaths among them.

Low socio-economic status is recognized as one of the risk factors for SIDS. In this study we have pointed out the similarities between families that have SIDS cases and families in which infant non-accidental injury has been proven, as well as the differences between them and the general population. This study was conducted in Montenegro, comparing 30 cases of SIDS with 25 cases of known infanticides and with a control group (60 cases) consisting of live newborns and their mothers from the general population, randomly selected from hospital-born newborns without exclusion criteria. We combined and compared the infant characteristics and mother characteristics between the above cases. There were significant similarities between the SIDS group and the infanticide group in terms of the following characteristics: the education level of the mothers (p = 0.086); maternal employment (p = 0.278); and place of residence (p = 0.269); while there were differences between the two groups regarding hospital birth (p = 0.027) and marital status (p = 0.011). The SIDS and infanticide groups, combined, had higher incidences of: out-of-hospital deliveries (p < 0.001); uneducated mothers (p < 0.001); unemployed mothers (p < 0.001); low socio-economic status (p < 0.001); and cases outside of marriage (p < 0.001), compared to the control groups. This study indicated a possible higher incidence of non-natural death among SIDS cases, as reflected by low socio-economic status and linked attributes, which is explained by their similarities with the infanticide groups and differences with the control groups.

Connection between Religiosity and Attitudes towards Sexuality in Montenegro.

The aim of the study was to examine the relationship between religiosity and liberal versus conservative attitudes about sex. The study involved 1287 residents of Montenegro over the age of 18, of which 848 women and 439 men. They completed the scale for examining the liberality of attitudes about sex, which the authors of the article compiled for the purposes of this research. Respondents declared their religiosity as believers, agnostics or atheists, so there were 957 believers, 171 atheists and 159 agnostics in the sample. We found that agnostics are the most liberal in terms of attitudes about sex, then atheists and then believers. In addition to religiosity, we examined the connection of attitudes about sex with gender, age, and education level. More educated respondents proved to be more liberal than less educated ones. The women in our sample proved to be more conservative than the men. We did not confirm the assumption that younger respondents would be more liberal than older ones, which can be partly explained by the numerical inequality of age groups. The knowledge we have gained in this study can be of great use primarily as guidelines for further research work, and can also be implemented in various educational programs.

Accelerating progress on effective tobacco tax policies in Montenegro.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study is to estimate the sensitivity of cigarette quantity demanded to price and income changes in Montenegro. DATA AND METHODS: The sensitivity of cigarette quantity demanded to price and income changes was estimated using micro and macro analysis. Micro analysis implied the use of Deaton's model on Household Budget Survey data (2006-2017). In macro analysis, conventional static demand model is applied using error correction and autoregressive distributed lag time series methodology on annual time series aggregated data (2001-2017). RESULTS: The same results were obtained using micro and macro analysis which contributes to the objectivity of the conducted research. Results derived from the Deaton's model indicate a negative price elasticity of cigarettes in the range between -0.62 and -0.80 (conditional and unconditional), while in macro model estimated price elasticity is in that range and equals -0.68. Simulation results confirm the efficiency of excise tax policy changes, having an evident decrease in consumption and increase of public revenues. CONCLUSION: Analysis of the tobacco market and regulatory environment suggests that the increase of excise and other taxes on tobacco have an important direct impact on the reduction of cigarettes and other tobacco products consumption. Our estimates of long and short-run price elasticity show that direct impact is strong and very much in accordance with the results obtained so far for other low-income and middle-income countries. This paper gives a contribution to the analysis of price elasticity of demand for cigarettes, which was for the first time conducted in Montenegro.

Multidisciplinary Approach for Education in Healthcare Management: Case Study from Montenegro.

Modern education of healthcare managers is one of key preconditions in making reforms towards increasing quality of care and making the provision of health services more cost-effective and efficient. This paper presents unique multidisciplinary approach for education of healthcare managers developed and accredited in Montenegro with elaboration results of the first year of its implementation. The results confirm the interest of experts of different profiles in multidisciplinary studies, as well as the optimality in using resources at national level in Montenegro.

Montenegro makes important strides towards achievement of the SDGs.

In 2018, Montenegro took an important step towards ratification of the Protocol on Water and Health to the 1992 Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes. A multisectoral national consultation provided a forum where national stakeholders could assist in related decision-making. The Protocol is the first and only multilateral legal agreement linking sustainable water management and the prevention, control and reduction of water-related diseases in the pan-European region. It was adopted in 1999 at the Third Ministerial Conference on Environment and Health in London and entered into force in 2005 as legally binding for the ratifying countries. To date, 26 countries have ratified it, covering about 60% of the population of the pan-European region. Montenegro is on the way to becoming the next country to ratify it and has used it as an instrument to strengthen national action towards progressively reaching regional and global WASH-related commitments, specifically in relation to SDG 3 (good health and well-being), SDG 6 (clean water and sanitation) and the Ostrava Declaration on Environment and Health (2017).

Poverty and other correlates of obesity and underweight among 7-year-olds from Croatia and Montenegro.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed at investigating poverty and other correlates of childhood underweight and obesity in two urban regions with lower (Podgorica, Montenegro) and higher economic development (Osijek, Croatia). STUDY DESIGN: Comparative study. METHODS: A comparative study was conducted on 693 children (52% boys), aged 7 years old (224 from Podgorica and 469 from Osijek). Parents completed the study-specific questionnaire on relevant factors for children's nutritional status. We measured children's height and weight and calculated their body mass index (BMI). International Obesity Task Force cut-off values of BMI were used to assess children's nutritional status. Subjective social position was assessed by the Mac Arthur scale. RESULTS: There were more underweight children in Osijek compared with Podgorica, both among boys (5.5% vs. 1.6%) and girls (6.9% vs. 1.0%). Obesity was more frequent in Podgorica than Osijek, both among boys (11.3% vs. 5.9%) and girls (10.0% vs. 4.3%). However, poverty in two cities diminished observed differences in children's nutritional status. The odds for child underweight decreased by 12.2%, while the odds for obesity increased by 3.6% per each paternal BMI unit. The frequency of child obesity was lowered per each step higher on the Mac Arthur scale and with breastfeeding by 23.2% and 68.0%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We show that a higher economic development is related to less obese children but more underweight children. However, poverty seems to impact nutritionally all children equally, regardless of the regional economic development. Paternal and not maternal BMI is relevant for both extremes in children's nutritional status. Breastfeeding and higher social position independently protect from child obesity.