Analysis and prediction of central nervous system tumor burden in China during 1990-2030.

Central nervous system (CNS) tumors, due to their unique locations, pose a serious threat to human health and present challenges to modern medicine. These tumors exhibit notable epidemiological characteristics across various ethnicities, regions, and age groups. This study investigated the trend of disease burden of CNS tumors in China from 1990-2019 and predicted the incidence and death rate from 2020-2030. Employing data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, we utilized key indicators to scrutinize the disease burden associated with CNS tumors in China. The analysis employed the Joinpoint model to track the trend in disease burden, calculating both the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). Additionally, the Matlab software facilitated the creation of a gray model to forecast the incidence and death rate of CNS tumors in China spanning from 2020 to 2030." In 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate, prevalence rate, death rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with CNS tumors in China were among the high level in the world. The standardized prevalence rate and DALYs of CNS tumors in China residents showed a stable fluctuation trend with age; however, age-standardized death and incidence rate demonstrated a generally upward trend with age. In China, the age-standardized prevalence and incidence rate of males were lower than those for female residents, while the age-standardized death rate and DALYs among males surpassed those of females. From 1990-2019, the age-standardized prevalence and incidence rate of CNS tumors in China exhibited an increasing trend. The age-standardized death rate and DALYs showed a contrasting trend. According to the gray model's prediction, incidence rate of CNS tumors would continue rising while the death rate is expected to decline in China from 2020-2023. The burden of CNS tumors in China has shown an upward trajectory, posing significant challenges to their treatment. It is necessary to pay attention to tertiary prevention, start from the perspective of high-risk groups and high-risk factors to reduce the burden of disease, and achieve "early detection, early diagnosis, and early treatment".

Assessing and projecting the global burden of thyroid cancer, 1990-2030: Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study.

Background: This study aims to assess the global incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of thyroid cancer between 1990 and 2030. Methods: Our study analysed Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data from 204 countries, spanning 1990-2019. It focused on age-standardised thyroid cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), using the sociodemographic index (SDI) for assessing socioeconomic levels. Generalised additive models (GAMs) projected thyroid cancer trends for 2020-2030. Results: The global burden of thyroid cancer is predicted to increase significantly from 1990 to 2030. The number of thyroid cancer incidence cases is projected to rise from 233 846.64 in 2019 to 305 078.08 by 2030, representing an approximate 30.46% increase. The ASIR (age-standardised incidence rate) is expected to continue its upward trend (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = 0.83). The age-standardised death rate (ASDR) for thyroid cancer is projected to decline in both genders, more notably in women (EAPC = -0.34) compared to men (EAPC = -0.17). The burden of disease escalates with advancing age, with significant regional disparities. Regions with lower SDI, particularly in South Asia, are anticipated to witness substantial increases in thyroid cancer incidence from 2020 to 2030. The overall disease burden is expected to rise, especially in countries with low to middle SDI, reflecting broader socio-economic and health care shifts. Conclusions: This study highlights significant regional and gender-specific variations in thyroid cancer, with notable increases in incidence rates, particularly in areas like South Asia. These trends suggest improvements in diagnostic capabilities and the influence of socio-economic factors. Additionally, the observed decline in mortality rates across various regions reflects advancements in thyroid cancer management. The findings underline the critical importance of regionally tailored prevention strategies, robust cancer registries, and public health initiatives to address the evolving landscape of thyroid cancer and mitigate health disparities globally.

Global burden of liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases caused by specific etiologies from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to assess the global, regional, and national burden of liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases between 1990 and 2019, considering five etiologies (hepatitis B, hepatitis C, alcohol use, NAFLD and other causes), age, gender, and sociodemographic index (SDI). METHODS: Data on liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases mortality, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were collected from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2019. RESULTS: In 2019, liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases accounted for 1,472,011 (95% UI 1,374,608-1,578,731) deaths worldwide, compared to 1,012,975 (948,941-1,073,877) deaths in 1990. Despite an increase in absolute deaths, the age-standardized death rate declined from 24.43 (22.93-25.73) per 100,000 population in 1990 to 18.00 (19.31-16.80) per 100,000 population in 2019. Eastern sub-Saharan Africa exhibited the highest age-standardized death rate (44.15 [38.47-51.91] per 100,000 population), while Australasia had the lowest rate (5.48 [5.05-5.93] deaths per 100,000 population in 2019). The age-standardized incidence rate of liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases attributed to hepatitis B virus has declined since 1990, but incidence rates for other etiologies have increased. Age-standardized death and DALYs rates progressively decreased with higher SDI across different GBD regions and countries. Mortality due to liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases increased with age in 2019, and the death rate among males was estimated 1.51 times higher than that among females globally. CONCLUSION: Liver cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases continues to pose a significant global public health challenge. Effective disease control, prevention, and treatment strategies should account for variations in risk factors, age, gender, and regional disparities.

Treating Mild Chronic Hypertension During Pregnancy: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost effectiveness of targeting a blood pressure of less than 140/90 mm Hg compared with 160/105 mm Hg. METHODS: A decision-analytic model was constructed to compare the treatment of chronic hypertension in pregnancy at mild-range blood pressures (140/90 mm Hg) with the treatment of chronic hypertension before 20 weeks of gestation at severe-range blood pressures (160/105 mm Hg) in a theoretical cohort of 180,000 patients with mild chronic hypertension. Probabilities, costs, and utilities were derived from literature and varied in sensitivity analyses. Primary outcomes included incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), cases of preeclampsia, preeclampsia with severe features, severe maternal morbidity (SMM), preterm birth, maternal death, neonatal death, and neurodevelopmental delay. The cost-effectiveness threshold was $100,000 per QALY. RESULTS: Treating chronic hypertension in a population of 180,000 pregnant persons at mild-range blood pressures, compared with severe-range blood pressures, resulted in 14,177 fewer cases of preeclampsia (43,953 vs 58,130), 11,835 of which were cases of preeclampsia with severe features (40,530 vs 52,365). This led to 817 fewer cases of SMM (4,375 vs 5,192), and 18 fewer cases of maternal death (102 vs 120). Treating at a lower threshold also resulted in 8,078 fewer cases of preterm birth (22,000 vs 30,078), which led to 26 fewer neonatal deaths (276 vs 302) and 157 fewer cases of neurodevelopmental delay (661 vs 818). Overall, treating chronic hypertension at a lower threshold was a dominant strategy that resulted in decreased costs of $600 million and increased effectiveness of 12,852 QALYs. CONCLUSION: Treating chronic hypertension at a threshold of mild-range blood pressures is a dominant (lower costs, better outcomes) and cost-effective strategy that results in fewer neonatal and maternal deaths compared with the standard treatment of treating at severe range blood pressures.

Global prevalence and burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis(TB) remains a pressing public health challenge, with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) emerging as a major threat. And healthcare authorities require reliable epidemiological evidence as a crucial reference to address this issue effectively. The aim was to offer a comprehensive epidemiological assessment of the global prevalence and burden of MDR-TB from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASR of DALYs), and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of MDR-TB were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database. The prevalence and burden of MDR-TB in 2019 were illustrated in the population and regional distribution. Temporal trends were analyzed by using Joinpoint regression analysis to calculate the annual percentage change (APC), average annual percentage change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval(CI). RESULTS: The estimates of the number of cases were 687,839(95% UIs: 365,512 to 1223,262), the ASPR were 8.26 per 100,000 (95%UIs: 4.61 to 15.20), the ASR of DALYs were 52.38 per 100,000 (95%UIs: 22.64 to 97.60) and the ASDR were 1.36 per 100,000 (95%UIs: 0.54 to 2.59) of MDR-TB at global in 2019. Substantial burden was observed in Africa and Southeast Asia. Males exhibited higher ASPR, ASR of DALYs, and ASDR than females across most age groups, with the burden of MDR-TB increasing with age. Additionally, significant increases were observed globally in the ASIR (AAPC = 5.8; 95%CI: 5.4 to 6.1; P < 0.001), ASPR (AAPC = 5.9; 95%CI: 5.4 to 6.4; P < 0.001), ASR of DALYs (AAPC = 4.6; 95%CI: 4.2 to 5.0; P < 0.001) and ASDR (AAPC = 4.4; 95%CI: 4.0 to 4.8; P < 0.001) of MDR-TB from 1990 to 2019. CONCLUSIONS: This study underscored the persistent threat of drug-resistant tuberculosis to public health. It is imperative that countries and organizations worldwide take immediate and concerted action to implement measures aimed at significantly reducing the burden of TB.

Neonatal mortality in countries of the Americas, 2000–2020: trends, inequalities, and target-setting / Mortalidad neonatal en los países de la Región de las Américas, 2000-2020: tendencias, desigualdades y establecimiento de metas / Mortalidade neonatal nos países das Américas, 2000-2020: tendências, desigualdades e definição de metas

[ABSTRACT]. Objective. To analyze temporal trends and inequalities in neonatal mortality between 2000 and 2020, and to set neonatal mortality targets for 2025 and 2030 in the Americas. Methods. A descriptive ecological study was conducted using 33 countries of the Americas as units of anal- ysis. Both the percentage change and average annual percentage change in neonatal mortality rates were estimated. Measurements of absolute and relative inequality based on adjusted regression models were used to assess cross-country social inequalities in neonatal mortality. Targets to reduce neonatal mortality and cross-country inequalities were set for 2025 and 2030. Results. The estimated regional neonatal mortality rate was 12.0 per 1 000 live births in 2000–2004 and 7.4 per 1 000 live births in 2020, representing a percentage change of –38.3% and an average annual per- centage change of –2.7%. National average annual percentage changes in neonatal mortality rates between 2000–2004 and 2020 ranged from –5.5 to 1.9 and were mostly negative. The estimated excess neonatal mor- tality in the 20% most socially disadvantaged countries, compared with the 20% least socially disadvantaged countries, was 17.1 and 9.8 deaths per 1 000 live births in 2000–2004 and 2020, respectively. Based on an extrapolation of recent trends, the regional neonatal mortality rate is projected to reach 7.0 and 6.6 neonatal deaths per 1 000 live births by 2025 and 2030, respectively. Conclusions. National and regional health authorities need to strengthen their efforts to reduce persistent social inequalities in neonatal mortality both within and between countries.

[RESUMEN]. Objetivo. Analizar las desigualdades en la mortalidad neonatal y las tendencias en el transcurso del tiempo entre el 2000 y el 2020, y establecer metas en materia de mortalidad neonatal para el 2025 y el 2030 en la Región de las Américas. Métodos. Se realizó un estudio ecológico descriptivo con información de 33 países de la Región de las Américas que se usaron como unidades de análisis. Se calculó tanto la variación porcentual como la varia- ción porcentual anual media de las tasas de mortalidad neonatal. Se utilizaron mediciones de la desigualdad absoluta y relativa basadas en modelos de regresión ajustados, para evaluar las desigualdades sociales en los diversos países en cuanto a la mortalidad neonatal. Se establecieron metas de reducción de la mortalidad neonatal y de las desigualdades en los diversos países para el 2025 y el 2030. Resultados. La tasa de mortalidad neonatal en la Región fue de 12,0 por 1 000 nacidos vivos en el período 2000-2004 y de 7,4 por 1 000 nacidos vivos en el 2020, lo que representa una variación porcentual del –38,3% y una variación porcentual anual media del –2,7%. Las variaciones porcentuales anuales medias de las tasas de mortalidad neonatal a nivel nacional entre el período 2000-2004 y el 2020 oscilaron entre –5,5 y 1,9, y fueron en su mayor parte negativas. El exceso de mortalidad neonatal estimado en el 20% de los países más desfavorecidos socialmente, en comparación con el 20% de los países menos desfavorecidos socialmente, fue de 17,1 muertes por 1 000 nacidos vivos en el período 2000-2004 y de 9,8 muertes por 1 000 nacidos vivos en el 2020. Al extrapolar las tendencias más recientes, se prevé que la tasa de mortalidad neonatal de la Región alcance valores de 7,0 y 6,6 muertes neonatales por 1 000 nacidos vivos en el 2025 y el 2030, respectivamente. Conclusiones. Las autoridades de salud nacionales y regionales deben fortalecer las medidas para reducir las desigualdades sociales que aún persisten en materia de mortalidad neonatal, tanto entre los distintos países como dentro de cada país.

[RESUMO]. Objetivo. Analisar as tendências temporais e desigualdades em mortalidade neonatal entre 2000 e 2020 e estabelecer metas de mortalidade neonatal para 2025 e 2030 na Região das Américas. Métodos. Estudo ecológico descritivo examinando 33 países das Américas como unidades de análise. Foram estimadas a variação percentual e a variação percentual anual média das taxas de mortalidade neonatal. Foram usadas medidas de desigualdade absoluta e relativa baseadas em modelos de regressão ajustados para avaliar desigualdades sociais entre países em termos de mortalidade neonatal. Foram definidas metas de redução da mortalidade neonatal e das desigualdades entre países para 2025 e 2030. Resultados. A taxa regional estimada de mortalidade neonatal foi de 12,0 por mil nascidos vivos em 2000– 2004, e de 7,4 por mil nascidos vivos em 2020, representando uma variação percentual de -38,3%, e uma variação percentual anual média de -2,7%. As variações percentuais anuais médias nacionais das taxas de mortalidade neonatal entre 2000–2004 e 2020 variaram entre -5,5 e 1,9 e, em sua maioria, foram negativas. O excesso estimado de mortalidade neonatal nos países que estavam entre os 20% mais desfavorecidos socialmente, em comparação com os países entre os 20% menos desfavorecidos, foi de 17,1 e 9,8 mortes por mil nascidos vivos em 2000–2004 e 2020, respectivamente. Com base em extrapolação das tendências recentes, estima-se que a taxa de mortalidade neonatal regional deve atingir 7,0 e 6,6 mortes neonatais por mil nascidos vivos em 2025 e 2030, respectivamente. Conclusões. As autoridades de saúde nacionais e regionais precisam intensificar seus esforços para reduzir desigualdades sociais persistentes na mortalidade neonatal, tanto dentro dos países quanto entre eles.

Term planned delivery based on fetal growth assessment with or without the cerebroplacental ratio in low-risk pregnancies (RATIO37): an international, multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The cerebroplacental ratio is associated with perinatal mortality and morbidity, but it is unknown whether routine measurement improves pregnancy outcomes. We aimed to evaluate whether the addition of cerebroplacental ratio measurement to the standard ultrasound growth assessment near term reduces perinatal mortality and severe neonatal morbidity, compared with growth assessment alone. METHODS: RATIO37 was a randomised, open-label, multicentre, pragmatic trial, conducted in low-risk pregnant women, recruited from nine hospitals over six countries. The eligibility criteria were designed to be broad; participants were required to be 18 years or older, with an ultrasound-dated confirmed singleton pregnancy in the first trimester, an alive fetus with no congenital malformations at the routine second-trimester ultrasound, an absence of adverse medical or obstetric history, and the capacity to give informed consent. Women were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio (block size 100) using a web-based system to either the concealed group or revealed group. In the revealed group, the cerebroplacental ratio value was known by clinicians, and if below the fifth centile, a planned delivery after 37 weeks was recommended. In the concealed group, women and clinicians were blinded to the cerebroplacental ratio value. All participants underwent ultrasound at 36 + 0 to 37 + 6 weeks of gestation with growth assessment and Doppler evaluation. In both groups, planned delivery was recommended when the estimated fetal weight was below the tenth centile. The primary outcome was perinatal mortality from 24 weeks' gestation to infant discharge. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02907242) and is now closed. FINDINGS: Between July 29, 2016, and Aug 3, 2021, we enrolled 11 214 women, of whom 9492 (84·6%) completed the trial and were eligible for analysis (4774 in the concealed group and 4718 in the revealed group). Perinatal mortality occurred in 13 (0·3%) of 4774 pregnancies in the concealed group and 13 (0·3%) of 4718 in the revealed group (OR 1·45 [95% CI 0·76-2·76]; p=0·262). Overall, severe neonatal morbidity occurred in 35 (0·73%) newborns in the concealed group and 18 (0·38%) in the revealed group (OR 0·58 [95% CI 0·40-0·83]; p=0·003). Severe neurological morbidity occurred in 13 (0·27%) newborns in the concealed group and nine (0·19%) in the revealed group (OR 0·56 [95% CI 0·25-1·24]; p=0·153). Severe non-neurological morbidity occurred in 23 (0·48%) newborns in the concealed group and nine (0·19%) in the revealed group (0·58 [95% CI 0·39-0·87]; p=0·009). Maternal adverse events were not collected. INTERPRETATION: Planned delivery at term based on ultrasound fetal growth assessment and cerebroplacental ratio at term was not followed by a reduction of perinatal mortality although significantly reduced severe neonatal morbidity compared with fetal growth assessment alone. FUNDING: La Caixa foundation, Cerebra Foundation for the Brain Injured Child, Agència per la Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca, and Instituto de Salud Carlos III.

Global trends and partial forecast of adverse effects of medical treatment from 1990 to 2019: an epidemiological analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: The possibility of adverse effects of medical treatment (AEMT) is increasing worldwide, but little is known about AEMT in China. This study analyzed the health burden of AEMT in China in recent years through the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 and compared it with the worldwide average level and those in different sociodemographic index (SDI) regions. METHODS: We calculated the age-standardized rate (ASR) of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), incidence and prevalence attributed to AEMT in China, worldwide and countries with different sociodemographic indices during 1990-2019 using the latest data and methods from the GBD 2019. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the global age-standardized death rate (ASDR), DALYs, and YLLs for AEMT showed a significant downward trend and were negatively associated with the SDI. By 2040, the ASDR is expected to reach approximately 1.58 (95% UI: 1.33-1.80). From 1990 to 2019, there was no significant change in the global incidence of AEMT. The occurrence of AEMT was related to sex, and the incidence of AEMT was greater among females. In addition, the incidence of AEMT-related injuries and burdens, such as ASR of DALYs, ASR of YLLs and ASR of YLDs, was greater among women than among men. Very old and very young people were more likely to be exposed to AEMT. CONCLUSIONS: From 1990 to 2019, progress was made worldwide in reducing the harm caused by AEMT. However, the incidence and prevalence of AEMT did not change significantly overall during this period. Therefore, the health sector should pay more attention to AEMT and take effective measures to reduce AEMT.

The global, regional, and national burden of foreign bodies from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Foreign bodies (FBs) are a common emergency in medical institutions, that can occur in any area and among people of any age, which are common public health problems. Understanding the epidemiological characteristics of FBs is crucial for their prevention and control. The purpose of this study was to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of FBs worldwide through the data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). METHODS: We obtained data from the GBD 2019, which is an important public database to understand the disease burden of FBs. Joinpoint was used to analyze temporal trends in the incidence and death trends of FBs, which is widely used to study the long-term temporal trend of the burden of diseases. SaTScan was used to detect spatial-temporal clusters of pulmonary aspiration and foreign body in the airway (PAFBA), which is based on a Poisson model, scanning the number of people and diseases in the study area to obtain the spatial-temporal clusters of diseases. RESULTS: Globally, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of FBs in 2019 were 869.23/100,000 (679.92/100,000-1120.69/100,000) and 1.55/100,000 (1.41/100,000-1.67/100,000), respectively. The ASIR and ASDR showed downtrends with average annual percent changes (AAPCs) of -0.31% and - 1.47% from 1990 to 2019. Of note, the ASIR showed an uptrend during 2010-2019, especially in high, high-middle, and middle SDI regions. Stratified analysis by age group showed that ASIR increased in each age group in recent years. From 1990 to 2019, the ASDR in the over-70 age group showed an uptrend worldwide, especially in high and high-middle SDI regions. In different types of FBs, the ASDR of PAFBA was the highest. The death burden of PAFBA was mainly clustered in 82 countries during 1993-2007, such as Canada, Cuba, and Mexico. CONCLUSION: The most important goal is to improve public awareness and emergency knowledge of FBs through publicity methods, such as the internet or offline activities, and to improve laws and regulations. Additionally, different age groups need different targeted measures, such as strengthening the care of children, caring for elderly individuals, improving necessary monitoring programs and reporting systems, conducting effective hazard assessments, and publicity and education activities.

The congenital birth defects burden in children younger than 14 years of age, 1990 - 2019: An age-period-cohort analysis of the global burden of disease study.

Background: This study aims to delineate the burden of congenital birth defects (CBDs) in children under 14 years of age from 1990 to 2019, using an age-period-cohort framework to analyse data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). Methods: Data on prevalence cases, age-standardised prevalence rates (ASPRs), death cases, and age-standardised death rates (ASDRs) of congenital birth defects (CBDs) from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from GBD 2019. Using this data set, we conducted an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to examine patterns and trends in mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with CBDs, while exploring correlations with age, time periods, and generational birth cohorts. Furthermore, to quantify the temporal trends, we calculated the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for these parameters. Results: The global prevalence of CBDs decreased from 1404.22 to 1301.66 per 100 000 with an EAPC of -0.18% from 1990 to 2019. CBD mortality decreased by 42.52% between 1990 and 2019, with the global age-standardised death rate declining from 49.72 to 25.58 per 100 000. The age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 4529.16 to 2393.61 per 100 000. Prevalence declined most notably among older children. The risk of CBDs reached its lowest during adolescence (10-14 years) across all regions. The most recent period (2015-2019) showed a reduced risk of prevalence compared to 2000-2004. Earlier birth cohorts displayed declining tendencies followed by slight increases in risk. Conclusions: This study demonstrates encouraging global reductions in the burden of CBDs among children over the past three decades. Prevalence, mortality, and DALYs attributable to CBDs have exhibited downward trajectories, although regional disparities remain. APC analysis provides valuable insights to inform prevention and management strategies for pediatric CBDs.

Does a free maternity policy in Kenya work? Impact and cost-benefit consideration based on demographic health survey data.

This paper evaluates the overall effect of the Kenyan free maternity policy (FMP) on the main outcomes (early neonatal and neonatal deaths) and intermediate outcomes (delivery through Caesarean Section (CS), skilled birth attendance (SBA), birth in a public hospital and low birth weight (LBW)) using the 2014 Demographic Health Survey. We applied the difference-in-difference (DID) approach to compare births (to the same mothers) happening before and after the start of the policy (June 2013) and a limited cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to assess the net social benefit of the FMP. The probabilities of birth resulting in early neonatal and neonatal mortality are significantly reduced by 17-21% and 19-20%, respectively, after the FMP introduction. The probability of birth happening through CS reduced by 1.7% after implementing the FMP, while that of LBW birth is increased by 3.7% though not statistically significant. SBA and birth in a public facility did not moderate the policy's effects on early neonatal mortality, neonatal mortality, and delivery through CS. They were not significant determinants of the policy effects on the outcomes. There is a significant causal impact of the FMP in reducing the probability of early neonatal and neonatal mortality, but not the delivery through CS. The FMP cost-to-benefit ratio was 21.22, and there were on average 4015 fewer neonatal deaths in 2013/2014 due to the FMP. The net benefits are higher than the costs; thus, there is a need to expand and sustainably fund the FMP to avert more neonatal deaths potentially.

Evaluation of an online education program for healthcare professionals on best practice management of perinatal deaths: IMPROVE eLearning.

BACKGROUND: The IMPROVE (IMproving Perinatal Mortality Review and Outcomes Via Education) eLearning, developed by the Stillbirth Centre of Research Excellence in partnership with the Perinatal Society of Australia and New Zealand was launched in December 2019. Based on the successful face-to-face program, the eLearning aims to increase availability and accessibility of high-quality online education to healthcare professionals providing care for families around the time of perinatal death, to improve the delivery of respectful and supportive clinical care and increase best practice investigation of perinatal deaths. AIMS: To evaluate participants' reported learning outcomes (change in knowledge and confidence) and overall acceptability of the program. METHODS: Pre- and post-eLearning in-built surveys were collected over two years (Dec. 2019-Nov. 2021), with a mix of Likert and polar questions. Pre- and post-eLearning differences in knowledge and confidence were assessed using McNemar's test. Subgroup analysis of overall acceptability by profession was assessed using Pearson's χ2 . RESULTS: One thousand, three hundred and thirty-nine participants were included. The majority were midwives (80.2%, n = 1074). A significant improvement in knowledge and confidence was shown across all chapters (P < 0.01). The chapter showing the greatest improvement was perinatal mortality audit and classification (21.5% pre- and 89.2% post-education). Over 90% of respondents agreed the online education was relevant, helpful, acceptable, engaging. Importantly, 80.7% of participants considered they were likely to change some aspect of their clinical practice after the eLearning. There was no difference in responses to relevance and acceptability of the eLearning program by profession. CONCLUSIONS: The IMPROVE eLearning is an acceptable and engaging method of delivery for clinical education, with the potential to improve care and management of perinatal deaths.

The burden of brain and central nervous system cancers in Asia from 1990 to 2019 and its predicted level in the next twenty-five years : Burden and prediction model of CNS cancers in Asia.

BACKGROUND: Primary brain and central nervous system cancer (collectively called CNS cancers) cause a significant burden to society. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the trends in the burden of CNS cancers from 1990 to 2019 and to predict the incidence and mortality rates and the corresponding numbers for the next 25 years to help countries to understand the trends in its incidence and mortality, and to make better adjustments or formulation of policies and allocation of resources thereby reducing the burden of the disease. METHODS: The 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study provided incidence rates, death rates, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) data in Asia from 1990 to 2019. To reflect the trends in the age-standardized incidence, mortality, and DALY rates, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was determined. The Bayesian age-period cohort (BAPC) model was employed to predict the burden of CNS cancers in the next 25 years. RESULTS: The incidence, death, and DALY rates of CNS cancers all increased from 1990 to 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) for CNS cancers increased from 9.89/100,000 in 1990 to 12.14/100,000 in 2019, with an EAPC of 0.69 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.65, 0.73). The ASDR and the age-standardized DALY rate both decreased, with EAPCs of - 0.08 and - 0.52, respectively. Before 2005, the age-standardized DALY rate in East Asia was much greater in females than in males, while in Central Asia, the age-standardized death and DALY rates in males both increased sharply after 2000. In contrast to 1990, the caseload increased for the 55-70 years age group. The number of deaths decreased sharply among individuals aged younger than 20 years, especially in East Asia, accounting for only 5.41% of all deaths. The age group with the highest mortality rate was > 60 years, especially in Japan. The ASIR will continue to increase in Asia from 2020 to 2044, and the ASDR will gradually diminish. The incidence and number of deaths from CNS cancers in Asia are expected to increase over the next 25 years, especially among females. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified an increasing trend in morbidity, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with differences in age-standardized morbidity rates for different population groups. In addition, it is noteworthy that the burden of disease (as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs)) is higher among women in Central Asia compared with other regions. ASIR will continue to increase over the next 25 years, with the increase in female cases and mortality expected to be more pronounced. This may need to be further substantiated by additional research, on the basis of which health authorities and policymakers can better utilize limited resources and develop appropriate policies and preventive measures.

The Global Burden of Type 2 Diabetes Attributable to Dietary Risks: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 reveals an increasing prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) from 1990 to 2019. This study delves into the role of dietary risk factors across different demographic and socioeconomic groups. Utilizing data from the GBD 2019, it analyzes age-adjusted T2DM metrics-death counts, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), and Age-Standardized Rates (ASRs)-stratified by age, sex, and region. The study employed Estimated Annual Percentage Changes (EAPCs) to track trends over time. The results show that in 2019, 26.07% of T2DM mortality and 27.08% of T2DM DALYs were attributable to poor diets, particularly those low in fruits and high in red and processed meats. There was a marked increase in both the death rate and DALY rate associated with dietary risks over this period, indicating the significant impact of dietary factors on the global T2DM landscape. Geographic variations in T2DM trends were significant, with regions like Southern Sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia experiencing the most substantial increases in Age-Standardized Mortality Rate (ASMR) and Age-Standardized DALY Rate (ASDR). A positive correlation was noted between Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) and T2DM burden due to dietary risk factors. The study concludes that targeted public health initiatives promoting dietary changes could substantially reduce the global T2DM burden.

Global disease burden and its attributable risk factors of peripheral arterial disease.

Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is a prevalent subtype of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases. It is crucial to assess the PAD-related burden and its attributable risk factors. We use the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 database to calculate the incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), attributable risk factors and estimated annual percentage change. The disease burden of PAD grows significantly with age accompanied by prominent heterogeneity between male and female. Despite the increase in the absolute numbers of disease burden from 1990 to 2019, the global PAD-related age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDALYR) have a mild downward trend from 1990 to 2019, which negatively correlated with sociodemographic index (SDI). Smoking and high systolic blood pressure (SBP) were the primary attributable risk factors for males (ASDR: 33.4%; ASDALYR: 43.4%) and females (ASDR: 25.3%; ASDALYR: 27.6%), respectively. High fasting plasma glucose (FPG) had become the second risk factor for ASDR (males: 28.5%; females: 25.2%) and ASDALYR (males: 29.3%; females: 26.3%) with an upward tendency. Low-middle SDI regions were predicted to have the most remarkable upward trend of PAD-related burden caused by high FPG. Smoking caused more disease burden in males before 85-90 years old and females before 65-70 years old, while high FPG and high SBP caused more burden after that. The patterns of PAD-related burden and its attributable risk factors are heterogeneous across ages, genders, and SDI regions. To reduce disease burden, tailored strategies should be implemented.

Devices and furniture for small and sick newborn care: systematic development of a planning and costing tool.

BACKGROUND: High-quality neonatal care requires sufficient functional medical devices, furniture, fixtures, and use by trained healthcare workers, however there is lack of publicly available tools for quantification and costing. This paper describes development and use of a planning and costing tool regarding furniture, fixtures and devices to support scale-up of WHO level-2 neonatal care, for national and global newborn survival targets. METHODS: We followed a systematic process. First, we reviewed planning and costing tools of relevance. Second, we co-designed a new tool to estimate furniture and device set-up costs for a default 40-bed level-2 neonatal unit, incorporating input from multi-disciplinary experts and newborn care guidelines. Furniture and device lists were based off WHO guidelines/norms, UNICEF and national manuals/guides. Due to lack of evidence-based quantification, ratios were based on operational manuals, multi-country facility assessment data, and expert opinion. Default unit costs were from government procurement agency costs in Kenya, Nigeria, and Tanzania. Third, we refined the tool by national use in Tanzania. RESULTS: The tool adapts activity-based costing (ABC) to estimate quantities and costs to equip a level-2 neonatal unit based on three components: (1) furniture/fixtures (18 default but editable items); (2) neonatal medical devices (16 product categories with minimum specifications for use in low-resource settings); (3) user training at device installation. The tool was used in Tanzania to generate procurement lists and cost estimates for level-2 scale-up in 171 hospitals (146 District and 25 Regional Referral). Total incremental cost of all new furniture and equipment acquisition, installation, and user training were US$93,000 per District hospital (level-2 care) and US$346,000 per Regional Referral hospital. Estimated cost per capita for whole-country district coverage was US$0.23, representing 0.57% increase in government health expenditure per capita and additional 0.35% for all Regional Referral hospitals. CONCLUSION: Given 2.3 million neonatal deaths and potential impact of level-2 newborn care, rational and efficient planning of devices linked to systems change is foundational. In future iterations, we aim to include consumables, spare parts, and maintenance cost options. More rigorous implementation research data are crucial to formulating evidence-based ratios for devices numbers per baby. Use of this tool could help overcome gaps in devices numbers, advance efficiency and quality of neonatal care.

Donor aid mentioning newborns and stillbirths, 2002-19: an analysis of levels, trends, and equity.

BACKGROUND: Global aid for reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health has stagnated in recent years, and aid mentioning newborns or stillbirths has previously represented a very small proportion of aid for reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health. Neonatal survival targets have been set by 78 countries, and stillbirth prevention targets have been set by 30 countries, to address the 4·4 million newborn deaths and stillbirths globally. We aimed to generate novel estimates of current levels of, and trends in, aid mentioning newborns and stillbirths over 2002-19, and to assess whether the amount of aid disbursed aligns with the associated mortality burden. METHODS: For this analysis, we did a manual review and coding of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)'s Creditor Reporting System database from 2002 to 2019 using key search terms for aid mentioning newborns and stillbirths. We compared these findings with estimates of aid for reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health for 2002-19 based on the Muskoka2 method. Findings are presented in 2019 US$ according to the OECD's Development Assistance Committee deflators, which account for variation in exchange rates and inflation in donor countries. FINDINGS: We identified 21 957 unique records in the 2002-19 period. Aid mentioning newborns and stillbirths comprised approximately 10% ($1·6 billion) of reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health funding overall in 2019 ($15·9 billion), with a small decrease in value between 2015 and 2019. 1284 (6%) of 21 957 records and 3·4% ($535 million) of their total value mentioned aid focused only on newborn health. Ten donors contributed 87% ($13·7 billion) of the total value of aid mentioning newborns and stillbirths during 2002-19. Aid mentioning newborns and stillbirths was inequitably allocated in the least developed countries (as defined by the UN), ranging from $18 per death in Angola to $1389 per death in Timor-Leste. Stillbirths were not mentioned in any funding in 2002-09, and they were only mentioned in 46 of 21 957 records in 2010-19, comprising $44·4 million of aid disbursed during this period. INTERPRETATION: Aid mentioning newborns and stillbirths is poorly matched to their corresponding mortality burden (representing 10% of aid for reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health overall, yet accounting for approximately 50% of mortality in children <5 years) and across recipient countries (with substantial variation in the amount of aid received per newborn death and stillbirth between countries with similar health and economic needs). Our findings indicate that aid needs to be better targeted to populations with the highest mortality burdens, creating greater potential for impact. FUNDING: John D and Catherine T MacArthur Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, ELMA Philanthropies, Children's Investment Fund Foundation UK, Lemelson Foundation, and Ting Tsung and Wei Fong Chao Foundation. TRANSLATION: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Research funding for newborn health and stillbirths, 2011-20: a systematic analysis of levels and trends.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, an estimated 4·4 million newborn deaths and stillbirths occurred in 2020, and 98% of these deaths occurred in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We aimed to analyse new research grants for newborns and stillbirth awarded by major funders in 2019-20, and all research funding allocated to LMIC-based institutions in 2011-20. METHODS: For this systematic analysis, we searched Dimensions, the world's largest research funding database, for grants relevant to neonatal and stillbirth research. Included grants were categorised by in-depth content analysis, with descriptive quantitative analyses by funder and recipient countries, research pipeline, topic, and year. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019-20, major funders awarded a mean annual total of US$577·1 million per year for newborn and stillbirth research (mean total of 550 grants per year). $166·3 million (28·8%) of $577·1 million was directed to small and vulnerable newborn research, but only $8·4 million (1·5%) was directed to stillbirth research. The majority of funding, $537·0 million (93·0%), was allocated to organisations based in high-income countries. Between 2011 and 2020, LMIC-based recipients were named on 1985 grants from all funders worth $486·7 million, of which $73·1 million (15·0%) was allocated to small and vulnerable newborn research and $12·0 million (2·5%) was allocated to stillbirth research. Most LMIC funding supported preclinical or observational studies ($236·8 million [48·7%] of $486·7 million), with implementation research receiving only $13·9 million (2·9%). INTERPRETATION: Although investment in research related to neonatal health and stillbirths has increased between 2011 and 2020, there are marked disparities in distribution geographically, between major causes of mortality, and among research pipeline types. Stillbirth research received minimal funding in both high-income countries and LMICs, despite a similar number of deaths compared with neonates. Direct investment in LMIC-led research, especially for implementation research, could accelerate the slow global progress on stillbirth prevention and newborn survival. FUNDING: None. TRANSLATIONS: For the French, German and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Global burden and trends of ectopic pregnancy: An observational trend study from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Ectopic pregnancy (EP) is one of the leading causes of death in women in early pregnancy, and the mortality of EP have gradually decreased over time in developed countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States. However, epidemiological information on EP has been lacking in recent years, so we analyzed EP data over a thirty-year period from 1990-2019 with the help of Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) data to fill this gap. METHODS: According to the EP data in GBD for the three decades from 1990 to 2019, we used estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) to assess the trend of age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and age-standardized disability adjusted life years (AS-DALYs) trends in EP and to explore the correlation between socio-demographic index (SDI) stratification, age stratification and EP. RESULTS: Global ASIR, ASDR, AS-DALYs for EP in 2019 are 170.33/100,000 persons (95% UI: 133.18 to 218.49), 0.16/100,000 persons (95% UI, 0.14 to 0.19) and 9.69/100,000 persons (95% UI, 8.27 to 11.31), respectively. At the overall level, ASDR is significantly negatively correlated with SDI values (R = -0.699, p < 0.001). Besides that, ASDR and AS-DALYs have basically the same pattern. In addition, iron deficiency is one of the risk factors for EP. CONCLUSIONS: In the past three decades, the morbidity, mortality and disease burden of EP have gradually decreased. It is noteworthy that some economically disadvantaged areas are still experiencing an increase in all indicators, therefore, it is more important to strengthen the protection of women from ethnic minorities and low-income groups.

Optimal timing of delivery for growth restricted fetuses with gastroschisis: A decision analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to determine the optimal timing of delivery of growth restricted fetuses with gastroschisis in the setting of normal umbilical artery (UA) Dopplers. METHODS: We designed a decision analytic model using TreeAge software for a hypothetical cohort of 2000 fetuses with isolated gastroschisis, fetal growth restriction (FGR), and normal UA Dopplers across 34-39 weeks of gestation. This model accounted for costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) for the pregnant individual and the neonate. Model outcomes included stillbirth, respiratory distress syndrome (RDS), necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC), intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH), short gut syndrome (SGS), neonatal sepsis, neonatal death, and neurodevelopmental disability (NDD). RESULTS: We found 38 weeks to be the optimal timing of delivery for minimizing overall perinatal mortality and leading to the highest total QALYs. Compared to 37 weeks, delivery at 38 weeks resulted in 367.98 more QALYs, 2.22 more cases of stillbirth, 2.41 fewer cases of RDS, 0.02 fewer cases of NEC, 1.65 fewer cases of IVH, 0.5 fewer cases of SGS, 2.04 fewer cases of sepsis, 11.8 fewer neonatal deaths and 3.37 fewer cases of NDD. However, 39 weeks were the most cost-effective strategy with a savings of $1,053,471 compared to 38 weeks. Monte Carlo analysis demonstrated that 38 weeks was the optimal gestational age for delivery 51.70% of the time, 39 weeks were optimal 47.40% of the time, and 37 weeks was optimal 0.90% of the time. CONCLUSION: Taking into consideration a range of adverse perinatal outcomes and cost effectiveness, 38-39 weeks gestation is ideal for the delivery of fetuses with gastroschisis, FGR, and normal UA Dopplers. However, there are unique details to consider for each case, and the timing of delivery should be individualized using shared multidisciplinary decision making.