Stopping the HPV vaccine crisis in Japan: Quantifying the benefits and risks of HPV vaccination in quality-adjusted life-years for appropriate decision-making.

BACKGROUND: The human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination coverage rate in Japan has dropped dramatically from more than 70% to less than 1% since 2013. With conflicting information and a lack of quantification of the benefits and risks of the HPV vaccine, parents have been hindered in making their decision. We quantified the benefits and risks of the HPV vaccine in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), to help their informed decision. METHOD: A literature search was performed to determine the incidence and burden of each outcome in a decision tree model. The benefits and the risks of the HPV vaccination were determined in QALY change with a sensitivity analysis. RESULT: The benefits of the HPV vaccine in terms of QALYs gained were 703.72, 14.45, and 30.83/100,000 persons for cervical cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasm 3 (CIN 3), and genital warts, respectively. The QALY loss due to acute adverse reactions, chronic adverse reactions without assistance needs, and chronic adverse reactions with assistance needs were 0.07, 5.83, and 5.82/100,000 persons, respectively. The risk/benefit ratio in QALY change in the base case was 0.0156. In all scenarios, the benefit of the HPV vaccine was significantly greater than the risk. CONCLUSION: The benefits are much greater than the risks, even if it is assumed that all reported adverse events were due to the vaccination. The Japanese government and health care providers should immediately recommend the HPV vaccine to all adolescent girls irrespective of any causal links between the vaccine and reported adverse events.

The state of the antivaccine movement in the United States: A focused examination of nonmedical exemptions in states and counties.

In a Policy Forum, Peter Hotez and colleagues discuss vaccination exemptions in US states and possible consequences for infectious disease outbreaks.

Risk is for the rich? Childhood vaccination resistance and a Culture of Health.

Childhood vaccination resistance has given rise to outbreaks of diseases, which had been virtually eliminated in the developed world. A parent's decision to forego vaccination for their child is a private choice that can have collective outcomes. This article takes a two-pronged approach to unraveling the puzzle of perceiving vaccines as dangerous in view of evidence that testifies to their effectiveness and relative safety. First, it draws on fifty-seven years of newspaper articles on vaccines to outline the public narratives. Second, it uses school-level data from New York and California to explore how these public narratives shape a geography of vaccination rates. We have two main findings. First, we find that while risk has always been a feature of vaccine narratives, the perception that the risks of vaccines out-weigh the benefits has grown. By the millennium, some began to view medical treatments as sources of risk rather than cure. Second, our geography of childhood vaccination reveals two distinct vaccine worlds. Affluence governs one world. Poverty governs the other. The geographic locales where vaccination rates are low enable us to contrast the difference between imagining risk, the prerogative of the affluent, and being at risk, the fate of the poor. Vaccination resistance speaks directly to a Culture of Health as it poses questions about the collective perception of risk and its relation to social inequality and solidarity.