Burden, Outcome, and Comorbidities of Extrahepatic Manifestations in Hepatitis B Virus Infections.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections affect approximately 296 million people around the world, and the prevalence of any past or present HBV infection during the years 2015-2018 was as high as 4.3%. Acute HBV infection often presents with nonspecific symptoms and is usually self-limited, but 5% of patients can have persistent infections leading to chronic HBV infection and the risk of turning into chronic HBV infection is significantly higher in babies with vertical transmission (95%). Patients with chronic HBV infection are usually asymptomatic, but 15 to 40% of chronic HBV carriers develop cirrhosis and/or hepatocellular carcinoma. In addition to liver-related disorders, HBV is also associated with several extrahepatic complications, including glomerulonephritis, cryoglobulinemia, neurologic disorders, psychological manifestations, polyarthritis, and dermatologic disorders. Making the diagnosis of HBV can be challenging since patients with chronic infections can remain symptom-free for decades before developing cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma, and patients with acute HBV infection may have only mild, nonspecific symptoms. Therefore, understanding how this virus causes extrahepatic complications can help clinicians consider this possibility in patients with diverse symptom presentations. The pathophysiology of these extrahepatic disorders likely involves immune-related tissue injury following immune complex formation and inflammatory cascades. In some cases, direct viral infection of extrahepatic tissue may cause a clinical syndrome. Currently, the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases recommends treatment of chronic HBV infections with interferon therapy and/or nucleos(t)ide analogs, and this treatment has been reported to improve some extrahepatic disorders in some patients with chronic HBV infection. These extrahepatic complications have a significant role in disease outcomes and increase medical costs, morbidity, and mortality. Therefore, understanding the frequency and pathogenesis of these extrahepatic complications provides important information for both specialists and nonspecialists and may help clinicians identify patients at an earlier stage of their infection.

Incidence and health risk assessment of hydrogen cyanide and multi-mycotoxins in Nigerian garri.

Garri is a granular, starchy food prepared by the fermentation of mashed cassava. Hydrogen cyanide (HCN) and mycotoxins are contaminants in certain foods at different points along the food value chain. The incidence and contamination levels of HCN and multi-mycotoxins in garri from five agroecological zones of Nigeria were determined using a spectrophotometric method and ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectroscopy (UHPLC-MS/MS), respectively. The health risk associated with the consumption of contaminated garri was assessed. The health risk assessment model was used to calculate the dietary exposure of humans to the mycotoxins in garri. This was done by estimating the daily intake (EDI), the percentage tolerable daily intake (%TDI), the annual hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases attributable to exposure to aflatoxins (AFs) in garri, as well as the HCC risk. The average intake of garri was estimated at 0.303 kg/day for a Nigerian adult. The incidence of HCN was 98.3% (0.056-2.463 mg/kg), and fermentation reduced the HCN level in garri more than other processing steps. The twenty-one mycotoxins identified and quantified were all within maximum levels, as applicable to those that are regulated by the EU. The %TDI for the other mycotoxins, with the exception of AFs, showed no alarming health risk with garri consumption. Annual HCC cases resulting from AF in garri were estimated at 10-60 cases for HBsAg + ve individuals and 4-23 cases for HBsAg - ve individuals based on 8.1% hepatitis B virus (HBV) incidence. Results further revealed no interdependence between HCN levels and mycotoxin content. This work suggests an unlikely chance of acute toxicity from HCN and major mycotoxins from a garri-based diet in Nigeria. Hence, it is recommended that concerned regulatory bodies maintain the existing permissible limits for HCN in Garri.

Long-term trends in incidence, mortality and burden of liver cancer due to specific etiologies in Hubei Province.

Liver cancer, a chronic non-communicable disease, represents a serious public health problem. Long-term trends in the burden of liver cancer disease are heterogeneous across regions. Incidence and mortality of liver cancer, based on the Global Burden of Disease, were collected from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. Age-period-cohort model was utilized to reveal the secular trends and estimate the age, period and cohort effects on primary liver cancer due to specific etiologies. Both the age-standardized incidence and mortality rate of liver cancer in Hubei province were on the rise, although there were discrepancies between gender groups. From age-period-cohort analysis, both incidence and mortality of liver cancer due to Hepatitis B virus were the highest in all age groups. The incidence of all liver cancer groups increased with time period in males, while this upward trend was observed in females only in liver cancer due to alcohol use group. Cohort effects indicated the disease burden of liver cancer decreased with birth cohorts. Local drifts showed that the incidence of liver cancer due to specific etiologies was increasing in the age group of males between 40 and 75 years old. The impact of an aging population will continue in Hubei Province. the disease burden of liver cancer will continue to increase, and personalized prevention policies must be adopted to address these changes.

Assessing the impact of comorbid type 2 diabetes mellitus on the disease burden of chronic hepatitis B virus infection and its complications in China from 2006 to 2030: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: China bears a high burden of both hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). T2DM accelerates the progression of liver disease among individuals infected with HBV. This study aims to assess the excess disease burden caused by comorbid T2DM among HBV-infected individuals in China. METHODS: We estimated the disease burden of HBV and its complications in China from 2006 to 2030 using individual-based Markov models. The baseline population consisted of 93 million HBV-infected individuals derived from the 2006 National Serological Epidemiological Survey. We developed two models: one incorporated the impact of T2DM on the disease progression of HBV infection, while the other did not consider the impact of T2DM. By comparing the outcomes between these two models, we estimated the excess disease burden attributable to comorbid T2DM among HBV-infected individuals. RESULTS: The incidence of severe HBV complications, including cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and liver-related deaths, exhibited an increasing trend from 2006 to 2030 among the Chinese HBV-infected population. Comorbid T2DM increased the annual incidence and cumulative cases of severe HBV complications. From 2006 to 2022, comorbid T2DM caused 791,000 (11.41%), 244,000 (9.27%), 377,000 (8.78%), and 796,000 (12.19%) excess cases of compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, HCC, and liver-related deaths, respectively. From 2023 to 2030, comorbid T2DM is projected to result in an 8.69% excess in severe HBV complications and an 8.95% increase in liver-related deaths. Among individuals aged 60 and older at baseline, comorbid T2DM led to a 21.68% excess in severe HBV complications and a 28.70% increase in liver-related deaths from 2006 to 2022, with projections indicating a further 20.76% increase in severe HBV complications and an 18.31% rise in liver-related deaths over the next seven years. CONCLUSIONS: Comorbid T2DM imposes a substantial disease burden on individuals with HBV infection in China. Healthcare providers and health policymakers should develop and implement tailored strategies for the effective management and control of T2DM in individuals with HBV infection.

Analysis of primary care electronic health record data of people living with hepatitis B virus: infection and hepatocellular carcinoma risk associated with socio-economic deprivation.

OBJECTIVES: We set out to characterise chronic hepatitis B (CHB) in the primary care population in England and investigate risk factors for progression to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: We identified 8039 individuals with CHB in individuals aged ≥18 years between 1999 and 2019 in the English primary care database QResearch. HCC risk factors were investigated using Cox proportional hazards modelling. RESULTS: Most of those with a record of CHB were males (60%) of non-White ethnicity (>70%), and a high proportion were in the most deprived Townsend deprivation quintile (44%). Among 7029 individuals with longitudinal data, 161 HCC cases occurred. Increased HCC hazards were significantly associated with male sex (adjusted hazards ratio [aHR] 3.17, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.92-5.23), in the fifth deprivation quintile as compared to the third quintile (aHR 1.69, 95% CI 1.01-2.84), with older age (for age groups 56-65 and ≥66 years, compared to 26-35 years, aHRs 2.82 [95% CI 1.45-5.46] and 3.76 [95% CI 1.79-7.9], respectively), Caribbean ethnicity (aHR 3.32, 95% CI 1.43-7.71, compared to White ethnicity), ascites (aHR 3.15, 95% CI 1.30-7.67), cirrhosis (aHR 6.55, 95% CI 4.57-9.38) and peptic ulcer disease (aHR 2.26, 95% CI 1.45-3.51). CONCLUSIONS: Targeting interventions and HCC surveillance at vulnerable groups is essential to improve CHB outcomes and to support progress towards international goals for the elimination of hepatitis infection as a public health threat.

Differences in the incidence and mortality of digestive cancer between Global Cancer Observatory 2020 and Global Burden of Disease 2019.

The burden of digestive cancers is increasing worldwide. The Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) 2020 and the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 are two primary cancer databases, which have a significant impact on policy formulation and resource allocation. We aim to compare the incidence and mortality of digestive cancers between them. Digestive cancer (esophageal, stomach, colorectal, liver, gallbladder and pancreatic cancer) incidence was obtained from the Cancer Today and GBD 2019 result tool. The top five countries with the most or minor difference between GLOBOCAN 2020 and GBD 2019 in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of digestive cancers were identified. A systematic search on the incidence of specific digestive cancer in selected countries from PubMed and Embase was conducted, and 20 of 281 publications were included. The most significant differences in digestive cancers incidence were commonly found in Asian countries (70%), particularly Indonesia, Vietnam and Myanmar, located in Southeast Asia. The ASIRs for most digestive cancers, except liver cancer, in GLOBOCAN 2020 were higher than those in GBD 2019. Gallbladder cancer had the highest average ratio, followed by liver cancer. The most commonly used standard population was Segi's standard population, followed by the World Health Organization standard population. The data sources nor the processing methods of GLOBOCAN 2020 and GBD 2019 were not similar. Low- and middle-income countries without population-based cancer registries were more likely to have selection bias in data collection and amplify regional variations of etiological factors. Better judgments on the quality of cancer data can be made.

Association between Patient Experience Scores and Low Utilization of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treatment in the United States: A Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems Analysis (SEER-CAHPS).

PURPOSE: To study the experiences of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) contributing to treatment discrepancy in the United States. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data from National Cancer Institute (NCI), Medicare (2002-2015) beneficiaries with HCC who completed a Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (CAHPS) survey were included. Six CAHPS items (3 global scores: global care rating [GCR], primary doctor rating [PDR], and specialist rating [SR]; 3 composite scores: getting needed care [GNC], getting care quickly [GCQ], and doctor communication [DC]) assessed patient experience. Covariates assessed between treated and nontreated groups included patient, disease, hospital, and CAHPS items. RESULTS: Among 548 patients with HCC, 211 (39%) received treatment and 337 (61%) did not receive treatment. Forty-two percent (GCR), 29% (PDR), 30% (SR), 36% (GNC), 78% (GCQ), and 35% (DC) of patients reported less-than-excellent experiences on the respective CAHPS items. Chronic liver disease (CLD) was present in 52% and liver decompensation (LD) in 60%. A minority of the hospitals were NCI-designated cancer centers (47%), transplant centers (27%), and referral centers (9%). On univariable analysis, patients with at least a high school degree (odds ratio [OR], 1.9), admittance to a ≥400-bed hospital (OR, 2.7), CLD (OR, 3.0), or LD (OR, 1.7) were more likely to receive treatment, whereas older patients (≥75 years) (OR, 0.5) were less likely to receive treatment. On multivariable, patients with CLD (OR, 6.8) and an excellent experience in GNC with a specialist (OR, 10.6) were more likely to receive treatment. CONCLUSIONS: HCC treatment discrepancy may be associated with patient-related factors, such as lack of specialist care (GNC), and disease-related factors, such as absence of underlying CLD.

Impact of socio-economic environment on incidence of primary liver cancer in France between 2006 and 2016.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: To measure the impact of socio-economic environment on the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA). METHOD: The study used data from the French Network of Cancer Registries (FRANCIM) between 2006 and 2016. Classification of patients into HCC and iCCA was performed according to the topographical and morphological codes of the 3rd edition of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology. Patient addresses were geolocalized and assigned to an IRIS, the smallest French geographic unit. Socio-economic environment was assessed by the European Deprivation Index (EDI). Sex- and age-standardized incidence rates with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated per 100 000 inhabitants, by national quintiles, for each IRIS, sex and age group. Quintile 1 (Q1) characterized the most affluent areas. A Poisson regression was performed to model the impact of deprivation. RESULTS: We included 22 249 cases (79.64% HCC, 16.97% iCCA). Incidence rates were 11.46 and 2.39 per 100 000 person-years for HCC and iCCA, respectively. There was an over-incidence of HCC in quintiles 2, 3, 4 and 5 compared to quintile 1: Q1 10.28 [9.9-10.66] per 100 000 person-years, Q2 11.43 [10.48-12.47] (p < .0001), Q3 11.81 [10.82-12.89] (p < .0001), Q4 12.26 [11.25-13.37] (p < .001) and Q5 11.53 [10.57-12.57] (p < .0001). By contrast, there was no difference for iCCa. Deprivation was significantly associated with HCC in men (p = .0018) and women (p = .0009), but not with iCCA (p = .7407). CONCLUSION: The incidence of HCC is related to socio-economic environment, unlike iCCA. HCC and iCCA should be studied separately in epidemiological studies.

Assessment of TLL1 variant and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in Latin Americans and Europeans.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Tolloid like protein 1 (TLL1) rs17047200 has been reported to be associated with HCC development and liver fibrosis. However, to our knowledge, no studies have been performed on Latin Americans and comparative differences between TLL1 rs17047200 in HCC patients from Latin America and Europe are undefined. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis was performed on Latin American and European individuals. We analyzed TLL1 rs17047200 on DNA from 1194 individuals, including 420 patients with HCC (86.0 % cirrhotics) and 774 without HCC (65.9 % cirrhotics). RESULTS: TLL1 rs17047200 genotype AT/TT was not associated with HCC development in Latin Americans (OR: 0.699, 95 %CI 0.456-1.072, p = 0.101) or Europeans (OR: 0.736, 95 %CI 0.447-1.211, p = 0.228). TLL1 AT/TT was not correlated with fibrosis stages among metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) patients from Latin America (OR: 0.975, 95 %CI 0.496-1.918, p = 0.941). Among Europeans, alcohol-related HCC had lower TLL1 AT/TT frequencies than cirrhosis (18.3 % versus 42.3 %, OR: 0.273, 95 %CI 0.096-0.773, p = 0.015). CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence that the TLL1 rs17047200 AT/TT genotype is a risk factor for HCC development in Latin Americans or Europeans. A larger study integrating ethnic and etiology backgrounds is needed to determine the importance of the TLL1 SNP in HCC development.

Construction of a hepatocellular carcinoma high-risk population rating scale and independent predictors' assessment.

BACKGROUND: With increasing mortality and incidence, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has become a major public health problem. The early diagnosis of HCC can improve its prognosis. The aim of this study was to identify potential risk factors related to HCC development and to establish a high-risk population rating scale. METHODS: A total of 853 patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) were enrolled in this study, including 403 patients with HCC as the case group and others as the control group. Their demographic and clinical characteristics were compared and the independent risk factors for HCC were assessed. Then, the optimal cutoff levels of these factors were analyzed by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) method. A high-risk population rating scale was constructed based on the factors and then evaluated in the modeling population. RESULTS: The factors that presented statistically significant differences between the two groups included age, smoking, alcohol abuse, body mass index, triglyceride, high‒density lipoprotein cholesterol, aspartate transaminase, alanine transaminase, fasting plasma glucose, creatinine and uric acid. The ROC curve showed that the cutoff score for the HCC high risk population was 5 (AUC=0.74, P<0.001) and the Hosmer‒Lemeshow analysis showed that the fitting effect of this rating scale was good (P = 0.294). CONCLUSIONS: The integration of these factors can contribute to a prognostic score for the risk of HCC development, which offered certain clinical practicability.

Incidence of Stomach, Liver, and Colorectal Cancers by Geography and Social Vulnerability Among American Indian and Alaska Native Populations, 2010-2019.

Social determinants of health and associated systems, policies, and practices are important drivers of health disparities. American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) populations in the United States have elevated incidence rates of stomach, liver, and colorectal cancers compared with other racial/ethnic groups. In this study, we examined incidence rates of 3 types of gastrointestinal cancer among non-Hispanic AI/AN (NH-AI/AN) and non-Hispanic White (NHW) populations by geographic region and Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) score. Incident cases diagnosed during 2010-2019 were identified from population-based cancer registries linked with the Indian Health Service patient registration databases. Age-adjusted incidence rates (per 100,000 population) for stomach, liver, and colorectal cancers were compared within NH-AI/AN populations and between the NH-AI/AN and NHW populations by SVI score. Rates were higher among NH-AI/AN populations in moderate- and high-SVI-score counties in Alaska, the Southern Plains, and the East than in low-SVI counties. Incidence rates among NH-AI/AN populations were elevated when compared with NHW populations by SVI category. Results indicated that higher social vulnerability may drive elevated cancer incidence among NH-AI/AN populations. Additionally, disparities between NH-AI/AN and NHW populations persist even when accounting for SVI. Exploring social vulnerability can aid in designing more effective interventions to address root causes of cancer disparities among AI/AN populations.

A randomized trial of mailed outreach with behavioral economic interventions to improve liver cancer surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance rates for HCC remain limited in patients with cirrhosis. We evaluated whether opt-out mailed outreach increased uptake with or without a $20 unconditional incentive. METHODS: This was a pragmatic randomized controlled trial in an urban academic health system including adult patients with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis, at least 1 visit to a specialty practice in the past 2 years and no surveillance in the last 7 months. Patients were randomized in a 1:2:2 ratio to (1) usual care, (2) a mailed letter with a signed order for an ultrasound, or (3) a mailed letter with an order and a $20 unconditional incentive. The main outcome was the proportion with completion of ultrasound within 6 months. RESULTS: Among the 562 patients included, the mean age was 62.1 (SD 11.1); 56.8% were male, 51.1% had Medicare, and 40.6% were Black. At 6 months, 27.6% (95% CI: 19.5-35.7) completed ultrasound in the Usual care arm, 54.5% (95% CI: 47.9-61.0) in the Letter + Order arm, and 54.1% (95% CI: 47.5-60.6) in the Letter + Order + Incentive arm. There was a significant increase in the Letter + Order arm compared to Usual care (absolute difference of 26.9%; 95% CI: 16.5-37.3; p<0.001), but no significant increase in the Letter + Order + Incentive arm compared to Letter + Order (absolute difference of -0.4; 95% CI: -9.7 to 8.8; p=0.93). CONCLUSIONS: There was an increase in HCC surveillance from mailed outreach with opt-out framing and a signed order slip, but no increase in response to the financial incentive.

From Shadows to Spotlight: Exploring the Escalating Burden of Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease and Alcohol Use Disorder in Young Women.

INTRODUCTION: The burden of alcohol-related complications is considerable, particularly alcohol-associated liver disease and alcohol use disorder (AUD). However, there are deficiencies in comprehensive epidemiological research focusing on these issues, especially among young women who display higher susceptibility to such complications compared with their male counterparts. We thus aimed to determine the global burden of these conditions in this vulnerable group. METHODS: Leveraging data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we analyzed the prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years of alcohol-associated cirrhosis (AC), liver cancer from alcohol, and AUD in young women. The findings were categorized by region, nation, and sociodemographic index. RESULTS: The highest age-standardized prevalence rates were observed in AUD (895.96 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 722.6-1,103.58]), followed by AC (65.33 [95% UI 48.37-86.49]) and liver cancer from alcohol (0.13 [95% UI 0.09-0.19]) per 100,000 people. The highest age-standardized mortality rates were observed in AC (0.75 [95% UI 0.55-0.97]), followed by AUD (0.48 [95% UI 0.43-0.53]) and liver cancer from alcohol (0.06 [95% UI 0.04-0.09]). The highest burdens of AC and AUD were observed in Central Europe, whereas the high-income Asia Pacific had the highest burden of liver cancer from alcohol. DISCUSSION: Throughout the past decade, the trend of AUD varied among regions while the impact of alcohol-associated liver disease has increased, requiring urgent public health strategy to mitigate these complications, particularly in female patients in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.

Global epidemiology of early-onset liver cancer attributable to specific aetiologies and risk factors from 2010 to 2019.

Background: Considering its emergence as a public health concern worldwide, with potential spatial-temporal heterogeneities, we aimed to determine the global burden of early-onset liver cancer attributable to aetiologies and concomitant risk factors. Methods: We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019 to determine age-standardised disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates for early-onset liver cancer by aetiologies and the population DALYs attributable to concomitant risk factors between 2010 and 2019. We also calculated estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) to measure temporal trends. Results: There were 2.9 million DALYs related to early-onset liver cancer globally in 2019. East Asia contributed over half of DALYs, which increased annually by 1.23% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.71, 1.76) between 2010 and 2019. Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis was the only growing aetiology. The proportion of DALYs attributed to metabolic risks increased by 22.50% (95% CI = 14.33, 38.13), while behavioral risks remained stable. Obesity surpassed smoking as the most prevalent nondeterministic aetiological risk factor from 2010 to 2019, while the population DALY attributable to hepatitis B combined with obesity increased by 29.93% (95% CI = 8.49, 60.77) in the same period, making it the principal joint contributor. Conclusions: Early-onset liver cancer poses considerable disability and continues to increase in many regions, especially in East Asia. Metabolic risk factors, particularly when hepatitis B and obesity coexist, are the fastest-growing contributors to this type of cancer. More targeted interventions are imperative to curb the growing burden of early-onset liver cancer due to metabolic risks.

Physical activity and cancer risk: a dose-response analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

OBJECTIVE: Adopting a healthy lifestyle, including regular physical activity, is widely believed to decrease cancer risk. This study aimed to quantitatively establish the dose-response relationships between total physical activity and the risk of breast, colon, lung, gastric, and liver cancers. METHODS: A systematic review and dose-response analysis were conducted using PubMed and Embase from January 1, 1980 to March 20, 2023. Prospective cohort studies that examined the association between physical activity and the risks of any of the 5 outcomes were included. The search was confined to publications in the English language with a specific focus on human studies. Physical activity is standardized by using the data from US National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) and the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database. RESULTS: A total of 98 studies, involving a combined population of 16,418,361 individuals, were included in the analysis. Among the included studies, 57 focused on breast cancer, 17 on lung cancer, 23 on colon cancer, 5 on gastric cancer, and 7 on liver cancer. Overall, elevated levels of physical activity exhibited an inverse correlation with the risk of cancer. The dose-response curve for lung cancer exhibited a non-linear pattern, with the greatest benefit risk reduction observed at 13,200 MET-minutes/week of physical activity, resulting in a 14.7% reduction in risk (relative risk 0.853, uncertainty interval 0.798 to 0.912) compared to the inactive population. In contrast, the dose-response curves for colon, gastric, breast, and liver cancers showed linear associations, indicating that heightened levels of total physical activity were consistently associated with reduced cancer risks. However, the increase in physical activity yielded a smaller risk reduction for colon and gastric cancers compared to breast and liver cancers. Compared to individuals with insufficient activity (total activity level < 600 MET-minutes/week), individuals with high levels of activity (≥ 8,000 MET-minutes/week) experienced a 10.3% (0.897, 0.860 to 0.934) risk reduction for breast cancer; 5.9% (0.941, 0.884 to 1.001) for lung cancer; 7.1% (0.929, 0.909 to 0.949) for colon cancer; 5.1% (0.949, 0.908 to 0.992) for gastric cancer; 17.1% (0.829, 0.760 to 0.903) for liver cancer. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated a significant inverse relationship between total physical activity and the risk of breast, gastric, liver, colon, and lung cancers.

Incidence and Risk Factors for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Cirrhosis: The Multicenter Hepatocellular Carcinoma Early Detection Strategy (HEDS) Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Worldwide, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common malignancy. We aimed to prospectively determine the incidence and risk factors of HCC in a U.S. METHODS: The multicenter Hepatocellular Carcinoma Early Detection Strategy study of the National Institutes of Health prospectively enrolled patients with cirrhosis who underwent standard surveillance for HCC. Demographics, medical and family history, etiology of liver disease, and clinical features were evaluated for associations with HCC. RESULTS: Between April 10, 2013 and December 31, 2021, 1723 patients were enrolled and confirmed eligible. During median follow-up of 2.2 years (range, 0-8.7 years), there were 109 incident cases of HCC for an incidence rate of 2.4 per 100 person-years: 88 (81%) patients with very early/early Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage (0, A), 20 (18%) intermediate stage (B), and 1 (1%) unknown stage. Risk factor analyses were restricted to 1325 patients, including 95 incident HCC, with at least 6 months of follow-up. The majority were men (53.2%), obese or severely obese (median body mass index, 30.2 kg/m2), and white (86.3%); 42.0% had history of hepatitis C virus infection, 20.7% had alcoholic liver disease, and 24.9% had nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Fourteen risk factors for HCC were significant (P < .05) in univariate analyses, and a multivariate subset was selected using stepwise logistic regression. The multivariate subset contained gender (P < .001; male; odds ratio [OR], 2.47; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.54-4.07), years with cirrhosis (P = .004; OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02-1.1), family history of liver cancer (P = .02; yes; OR, 2.69; 95% CI, 1.11-5.86), age (per 5 years; P = .02; OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.03-1.33), obesity (P = .02; yes; OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.08-2.73), aspartate aminotransferase (log(1+AST); P = .06; OR, 1.54; 95% CI, 0.97-2.42), alpha-fetoprotein (log(1+AFP); P = .07; OR, 1.32; 95% CI, 0.97-1.77), and albumin (P = .10; OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.46-1.07). CONCLUSIONS: Thus far, this is the largest prospective and geographically diverse study of a U.S. cohort of patients with cirrhosis that validates known risk factors for HCC (gender, age, obesity, years with cirrhosis, family history of liver cancer, baseline AFP, albumin, and AST). The incidence of HCC was 2.4% per 100 person-years.

The trends in death of primary liver cancer caused by specific etiologies worldwide: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 and implications for liver cancer management.

BACKGROUND: Over past decades, epidemiological patterns of liver cancer (LC) have changed dramatically. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study provides an opportunity for tracking the progress in cancer control with its annual updated reports at national, regional and global level, which can facilitate the health decision-making and the allocation of health resources. Therefore, we aim to estimate the global, regional and national trends of death caused by liver cancer due to specific etiologies and attributable risks from 1990 to 2019. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data was collected from the GBD study 2019. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were used to quantify the trends of age-standardized death rate (ASDR). We applied a linear regression for the calculation of estimated annual percentage change in ASDR. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the ASDR of liver cancer decreased globally (EAPC = - 2.23, 95% confidence interval [CI]: - 2.61 to - 1.84). Meanwhile, declining trends were observed in both sexes, socio-demographic index (SDI) areas, and geographies, particularly East Asia (EAPC = - 4.98, 95% CI: - 5.73 to - 4.22). The ASDR for each of the four major etiologies fell globally, while liver cancer caused by hepatitis B had the largest drop (EPAC = - 3.46, 95% CI: - 4.01 to - 2.89). China has had dramatic decreases in death rates on a national scale, particularly when it comes to the hepatitis B etiology (EAPC = - 5.17, 95% CI: - 5.96 to - 4.37). However, certain nations, such as Armenia and Uzbekistan, saw a rise in liver cancer mortality. Controlling smoking, alcohol, and drug use contributed to a drop in LC-related mortality in the majority of socio-demographic index areas. Nevertheless, the excessive body mass index (BMI) was portrayed as the underlying cause for LC fatalities. CONCLUSION: From 1990 to 2019, there was a worldwide decrease in deaths caused by liver cancer and its underlying causes. However, rising tendencies have been observed in low-resource regions and countries. The trends in drug use- and high BMI-related death from liver cancer and its underlying etiologies were concerning. The findings indicated that efforts should be increased to prevent liver cancer deaths through improved etiology control and risk management.

Second order probabilistic assessment of chronic dietary exposure to aflatoxin M1 in Serbia.

Considering the genotoxic and cancerogenic nature of aflatoxin M1 (AFM1), its presence in milk and dairy products may pose health risks for consumers. The chronic exposure was calculated using a two-dimensional (second order) Monte Carlo model. Results of 13 722 milk and dairy product samples analysed in the 2015-2022 period were used. Milk and dairy products intake information was collected with a Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ) validated by a 24-h recall-based method. Risk characterization was done by calculation of the Margin of Exposure (MOE) and by calculation of AFM1 induced number of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cases. Mean AFM1 Estimated Daily Intake (EDI) was highest in children at 0.336 (CI: 0.294-0.385) ng kg-1 bw day-1, followed by adolescents with 0.183 (CI: 0.164-0.204), then adult females with 0.161 (CI: 0.146-0.179) and finally adult males with lowest EDI of 0.126 (CI: 0.115-0.139) ng kg-1 bw day-1. MOE values based on mean EDI for all population groups were above risk associated threshold and the number of possible HCC cases was in the range of 0.0002-0.0021 cases per year for 105 individuals. The results suggest low health risks due to AFM1 exposure for the whole population. Still, this risk is not non-existent, especially for children as they have a higher ratio of the population exposed to risk associated AFM1 levels, with MOE values below risk indicating threshold starting at 77.5th percentile.

Global, Regional, and National Trends in Incidence and Mortality of Primary Liver Cancer and Its Underlying Etiologies from 1990 to 2019: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

OBJECTIVE: Primary liver cancer is not only one of the most common causes of cancer deaths but also the second most common cause of premature death worldwide. Understanding the trends in incidence and mortality of primary liver cancer and its etiologies is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. This study aimed to quantify the trends in incidence and mortality of primary liver cancer and its etiologies at the global, regional and national levels using data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. METHOD: Annual incident cases, deaths, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) of primary liver cancer and its etiologies, including hepatitis B, hepatitis C, alcohol use, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, and other causes, between 1990 and 2019 were collected from GBD study 2019. Percentage changes in incident cases and deaths and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) in ASIRs and ASMRs of primary liver cancer and its etiologies were calculated to quantify their temporal trends. Correlations of EAPC in ASIRs and ASMRs with socio-demographic index (SDI) and universal health coverage index (UHCI) in 2019 were separately evaluated by Pearson correlation analyses. RESULTS: Globally, the incident cases and deaths of primary liver cancer increased by 43.11% from 373 393 in 1990 to 534 365 in 2019 and 32.68% from 365 213 in 1990 to 484 584 in 2019, respectively. ASIR and ASMR of primary liver cancer decreased by an average of 2.23% (95% CI 1.83%, 2.63%) and 1.93% (95% CI 1.55%, 2.31%) per year between 1990 and 2019 worldwide, respectively. ASIRs and ASMRs of primary liver cancer varied between regions, with an increasing trend in ASIR (EAPC = 0.91; 95% CI 0.47, 1.35) and a stable trend in ASMR (EAPC = 0.42, 95% CI - 0.01, 0.85) of primary liver cancer in high SDI region between 1990 and 2019. Nearly half (91/204) of the countries suffered an increasing trend in ASIR of primary liver cancer and more than one-third (71/204) of the countries suffered an increasing trend in ASIRs of primary liver cancer from all etiologies between 1990 and 2019 worldwide. Positive correlations of EAPC in ASIR and ASMR of primary liver cancer with SDI and UHCI were observed in nations with SDI ≥ 0.7 or UHCI ≥ 70. CONCLUSION: Primary liver cancer remains a major public health concern globally, with an increasing trend in the numbers of incident cases and deaths in the past three decades. We observed an increasing trend in ASIR of primary liver cancer in nearly half of the countries and an increasing trend in ASIRs of primary liver cancer by etiology in more than one-third of the countries worldwide. In line with the Sustainable Development Goals, the identification and elimination of risk factors for primary liver cancer will be required to achieve a sustained reduction in liver cancer burden.