Burden, Outcome, and Comorbidities of Extrahepatic Manifestations in Hepatitis B Virus Infections.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections affect approximately 296 million people around the world, and the prevalence of any past or present HBV infection during the years 2015-2018 was as high as 4.3%. Acute HBV infection often presents with nonspecific symptoms and is usually self-limited, but 5% of patients can have persistent infections leading to chronic HBV infection and the risk of turning into chronic HBV infection is significantly higher in babies with vertical transmission (95%). Patients with chronic HBV infection are usually asymptomatic, but 15 to 40% of chronic HBV carriers develop cirrhosis and/or hepatocellular carcinoma. In addition to liver-related disorders, HBV is also associated with several extrahepatic complications, including glomerulonephritis, cryoglobulinemia, neurologic disorders, psychological manifestations, polyarthritis, and dermatologic disorders. Making the diagnosis of HBV can be challenging since patients with chronic infections can remain symptom-free for decades before developing cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma, and patients with acute HBV infection may have only mild, nonspecific symptoms. Therefore, understanding how this virus causes extrahepatic complications can help clinicians consider this possibility in patients with diverse symptom presentations. The pathophysiology of these extrahepatic disorders likely involves immune-related tissue injury following immune complex formation and inflammatory cascades. In some cases, direct viral infection of extrahepatic tissue may cause a clinical syndrome. Currently, the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases recommends treatment of chronic HBV infections with interferon therapy and/or nucleos(t)ide analogs, and this treatment has been reported to improve some extrahepatic disorders in some patients with chronic HBV infection. These extrahepatic complications have a significant role in disease outcomes and increase medical costs, morbidity, and mortality. Therefore, understanding the frequency and pathogenesis of these extrahepatic complications provides important information for both specialists and nonspecialists and may help clinicians identify patients at an earlier stage of their infection.

Long-term assessment of recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis C after viral cure by direct-acting antivirals.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence is common, even after achieving hepatitis C virus (HCV) cure. This study was carried out to assess the long-term trends and predictors of recurrence after HCV cure by direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). METHODS: This retrospective, multicenter cohort study enrolled 365 consecutive patients with chronic hepatitis C who required HCC treatment following sustained viral response (SVR) by DAA administration. Patients with HCC recurrence before SVR were excluded. Late HCC recurrence and its predictors beyond the post-treatment early phase (24 weeks after SVR) were evaluated. RESULTS: The data of 326 patients were available for the final analysis. The median follow-up duration from SVR determination was 2.7 years. Median age was 74, and 220 (67.5%) were 70 or over. The corresponding 5-year cumulative HCC recurrence rates of previous curative and palliative treatment groups were 45.4% and 65.7%, respectively (log-rank test: P < 0.001). Cox regression multivariable analysis revealed that cirrhosis (hazard ratio [HR] 1.85, P = 0.021), the number of HCC nodules (≥ 2) (HR 1.52, P = 0.031), and previous palliative HCC treatment (HR 1.71, P = 0.012) were independent predictors of late recurrence, in addition to the predictors of early recurrence; AFP > 7 ng/mL at 12 weeks after DAA administration, time from HCC complete response (CR) to DAA initiation (< 1 year), and the number of HCC treatments necessary to achieve CR (≥ 2). CONCLUSIONS: The evaluation of fibrosis and characteristics of the previous HCC would allow for better HCC recurrence stratification, which would be helpful for developing long-term surveillance strategies.

A tool to measure the economic impact of Hepatitis B elimination: A case study in Saudi Arabia.

BACKGROUND: No virologic cure exists for hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, and existing therapies are designed to control viral replication. We aimed to estimate the national prevalence of HBsAg in 2017 and study the impact of an enhanced diagnosis rate and universal treatment administration on HBV-related outcomes in Saudi Arabia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A dynamic transmission and disease burden model was developed to estimate the future economic burden of HBV infection. The infected population was tracked by age and gender-defined cohorts; direct costs (healthcare, screening, diagnostics and treatment) and indirect costs (disability-adjusted life years and the value of a statistical life year) were calculated. The impact of two intervention scenarios (Achieve WHO Targets: diagnose 90% of infections and treat 80% of high viral load patients by 2030; and Diagnose and Treat All: diagnose and treat all infected patients by 2022) were compared against the Base Case scenario (no policy action), with near-universal vaccination coverage rates held constant. A sensitivity analysis of future treatment cost was also conducted. RESULTS: In 2017, HBsAg prevalence was estimated at 1.7%, corresponding to 574,000 infections. The same year, there was an estimated incidence of 490 cases of decompensated cirrhosis, 1500 cases of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and 1740 liver-related deaths (LRD). HBsAg prevalence was 0.1% among 5-year-olds and <0.1% among infants. Disease burden outcomes by 2030, as compared with 2015, were as follows - Base Case: LRDs and HCC incidence were projected to increase by 70%. WHO Targets: A 30-35% decline in both HCC incidence and LRDs. Diagnose and Treat All: A 50-55% decline in HCC incidence and LRDs. In all scenarios, HBsAg prevalence among infants and 5-year-olds declined to <0.1% with the Diagnose and Treat all scenario resulting in a prevalence approaching zero in this age group. Annual direct costs are projected to increase and peak by 2022 in both intervention scenarios due to expansion of treatment and diagnostics. However, these are offset by the reduction of indirect economic costs, starting immediately in the WHO Targets scenario and by 2023 in the strategy to diagnose and treat all. Achieving WHO Targets is estimated to achieve a positive return on investment (ROI) by 2021 when examining direct costs and indirect economic losses at a treatment price of $2700 USD per patient yearly. Diagnosing and treating all patients, however, would require at least a 50% reduction in the unit cost of treatment to achieve a positive ROI by 2029. CONCLUSIONS: Increased diagnosis and treatment rates of HBV would lead to substantial declines in HCC and LRD. This effect would be dramatically enhanced by administering treatment to all HBV cases regardless of viral load and estimated to be highly cost-effective if treatment prices can be substantially reduced.

Self-motivated medical care-seeking behaviors and disease progression in a community-based cohort of chronic hepatitis B virus-infected patients in China.

BACKGROUND: To determine the treatment behaviors among a community-based cohort of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV)-infected persons and to examine the disease progression among non-antiviral-treated HBV-infected cases after 5 years of follow-up. METHODS: We conducted a community-based prospective study on people with chronic HBV infection in mainland China from 2009 to 2014. In 2009, we recruited participants who were identified as HBV infected in 2006 in a national sero-survey. A face-to-face follow-up investigation was completed in 2014, and the personal information, the clinical diagnosis provided at the last hospital visit, the HBV antiviral treatment history, and the insurance type was collected for each patient for analysis. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors that are associated with active medical care- seeking and antiviral treatments. RESULTS: Among the 2422 chronic HBV-infected patients recruited in 2009, 1784 (73.7%) were followed-up to 2014, and 638 (35.8%) had sought medical care in hospitals; among them, 140 (21.9%) received antiviral treatments. The lowest medical care-seeking rate (26%) was in participants over 50-year old. We determined that the frequency of medical care-seeking was higher among those participants living in urban areas (aRR = 1.3, 95% CI:1.0-1.6), those in 0-19-year old (aRR = 1.5, 95% CI:1.1-2.1), 20-39-year old (aRR = 2.2, 95% CI:1.7-3.0) and 40-49-year old (aRR = 1.5, 95% CI:1.1-2.0), and persons with insurance of the type Urban residents' basic medical insurance (URBMI) or Commercial health insurance (CHI) (aRR = 2.5, 95% CI:1.7-3.6) and New Rural Cooperative Medical System (NRCMS) (aRR = 1.9, 95% CI:1.4-2.6). Patients were more likely to receive antiviral treatment if they were 20-39-year old (aRR = 0.4, 95% CI:0.3-0.7), had insurance of the type URBMI or CHI (aRR = 2.6, 95% CI:1.1-6.3) or NRCMS (aRR = 3.0, 95% CI:1.3-6.9) and were treated at prefecture and above-level hospitals (aRR = 2.0, 95% CI:1.4-3.0). Among non-antiviral-treated HBV-infected cases, we found the annual rates for HBsAg sero-clearance, progress to cirrhosis and HCC were 1.0, 0.6 and 0.2%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The rates of medical care-seeking and antiviral treatment were low among community-based chronic HBV-infected persons, thus we recommend improving the insurance policies for HBV-infected persons to increase the antiviral treatment rate, and conducting extensive education to promote HBV-infected patients actively seeking medical care from hospitals.

The Prevalence of Mixed Genotype Infections in Turkish Patients with Hepatitis C: a Multicentered Assessment.

BACKGROUND: HCV virus infections are one of the major health problems in the world that can cause cirrhosis and liver cancer at a higher rate than other hepatitis data. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of mixed infections with different HCV genotypes in Turkey and also to evaluate the current HCV genotype and sub-type distributions by a multicentered assessment. METHODS: The HCV genotype data of 17,578 hepatitis C patients collected from 23 centers from different geographic regions covering all Turkey were collected. The data included information about the HCV genotypes in the last 10 years (between 2007 and 2016), demographic properties of the patients and the methods/systems used to determine the genotypes. RESULTS: Two hundred twenty-eight of the patients (1.3%) had mixed genotype. The most common mixed genotype combination was 1b + 4 (0.83%) followed by 1a + 1b (0.26%). Genotype distribution varies according to geographical regions. However, genotype 1 (82.92%) was the most common genotype in all regions and all years. This was followed by genotype 3 (7.07%) and genotype 4 (5.43%). A variety of methods were used by the centers including sequencing, pyrosequencing, real-time PCR, in-house RFLP, reverse hybridization (LIPA), and hybridization. CONCLUSIONS: Infection with mixed HCV genotypes in Turkey is uncommon. Genotype distribution varies according to geographic regions; the most common genotype 1 is encountered all over the country, while genotypes 3 and 4 are only in some of the centers. Since there is limited information about mixed HCV infection, further investigations are needed to determine the clinical importance of mixed HCV infection.

Cost-effectiveness and health-related outcomes of screening for hepatitis C in Korean population.

BACKGROUND/AIM: In the era of direct-acting antivirals (DAA), active screening for hidden hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is important for HCV elimination. This study estimated the cost-effectiveness and health-related outcomes of HCV screening and DAA treatment of a targeted population in Korea, where anti-HCV prevalence was 0.6% in 2015. METHODS: A Markov model simulating the natural history of HCV infection was used to examine the cost-effectiveness of two strategies: no screening vs screening and DAA treatment. Screening was performed by integration of the anti-HCV test into the National Health Examination Program. From a healthcare system's perspective, the cost-utility and the impact on HCV-related health events of one-time anti-HCV screening and DAA treatment in Korean population aged 40-65 years was analysed with a lifetime horizon. RESULTS: The HCV screening and DAA treatment strategy increased quality-adjusted life years (QALY) by 0.0015 at a cost of $11.27 resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $7435 per QALY gained compared with no screening. The probability of the screening strategy to be cost-effective was 98.8% at a willingness-to-pay of $27 205. Deterministic sensitivity analyses revealed the ICERs were from $4602 to $12 588 and sensitive to screening costs, discount rates and treatment acceptability. Moreover, it can prevent 32 HCV-related deaths, 19 hepatocellular carcinomas and 15 decompensated cirrhosis per 100 000 screened persons. CONCLUSIONS: A one-time HCV screening and DAA treatment of a Korean population aged 40-65 years would be highly cost-effective, and significantly reduce the HCV-related morbidity and mortality compared with no screening.

Profile and value of FIB-4 in patients with dual chronic hepatitis C and B.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are at risk of developing adverse outcomes. Coinfection with both viruses may further increase the risk. Currently, little is known about the role of fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, a simple liver fibrosis stage biomarker, in predicting the clinical outcomes. METHODS: We retrospectively enrolled 152 non-cirrhotic patients with dual chronic HCV and HBV infection: 56 patients received pegylated interferon/ribavirin therapy, while 96 patients remained untreated. The association between the FIB-4 index and the incidence of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was explored. RESULTS: After a 9.88-year follow-up, the incidence of hepatitis B surface antigen seroclearance was 4.97 (95% confidence interval: 3.13-7.89) per 100 person-years in the treated group and was 1.77 (1.10-2.85) in the untreated group. Of the treated group, only three and six patients developed HCC and liver cirrhosis, respectively, while 17 and 23 patients developed HCC and liver cirrhosis, respectively, in untreated group. Baseline FIB-4 index correlated with the development of liver cirrhosis in multivariable analysis of all subjects. High baseline FIB-4 index (per 1 point increase) in the treated groups was associated with a higher risk of developing liver cirrhosis (P = 0.001) and HCC (P = 0.038) in univariable analysis. FIB-4 index decreased only in the treated group who achieved sustained virological response (n = 34, FIB-4 index decreasing from 1.84 to 1.55). CONCLUSIONS: In Taiwanese patients coinfected with HCV and HBV, FIB-4 index helps identify patients at risk of developing adverse events, even in patients receiving pegylated interferon/ribavirin therapy.

Epidemiology and Elimination of HCV-Related Liver Disease.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, defined by active carriage of HCV RNA, affects nearly 1.0% of the worldwide population. The main risk factors include unsafe injection drug use and iatrogenic infections. Chronic HCV infection can promote liver damage, cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in affected individuals. The advent of new second-generation, direct-acting antiviral (DAA) agents allow a virological cure in more than 90% of treated patients, and therefore prevent HCV-related complications. Recently, concerns have been raised regarding the safety of DAA-regimens in cirrhotic patients with respect to the occurrence and the recurrence of HCC. Here, we review the current available data on HCV epidemiology, the beneficial effects of therapy, and discuss the recent controversy with respect to the potential link with liver cancer. We also highlight the challenges that have to be overcome to achieve the ambitious World Health Organization objective of HCV eradication by 2030.

The Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Hepatitis C Screening for Migrants in the EU/EEA: A Systematic Review.

Chronic hepatitis C (HCV) is a public health priority in the European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) and is a leading cause of chronic liver disease and liver cancer. Migrants account for a disproportionate number of HCV cases in the EU/EEA (mean 14% of cases and >50% of cases in some countries). We conducted two systematic reviews (SR) to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of HCV screening for migrants living in the EU/EEA. We found that screening tests for HCV are highly sensitive and specific. Clinical trials report direct acting antiviral (DAA) therapies are well-tolerated in a wide range of populations and cure almost all cases (>95%) and lead to an 85% lower risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma and an 80% lower risk of all-cause mortality. At 2015 costs, DAA based regimens were only moderately cost-effective and as a result less than 30% of people with HCV had been screened and less 5% of all HCV cases had been treated in the EU/EEA in 2015. Migrants face additional barriers in linkage to care and treatment due to several patient, practitioner, and health system barriers. Although decreasing HCV costs have made treatment more accessible in the EU/EEA, HCV elimination will only be possible in the region if health systems include and treat migrants for HCV.

Comprehensive assessment for miRNA polymorphisms in hepatocellular cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

MiRNA polymorphisms had potential to be biomarkers for hepatocellular cancer (HCC) susceptibility. Recently, miRNA single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were reported to be associated with HCC risk, but the results were inconsistent. We performed a systematic review with a meta-analysis for the association of miRNA SNPs with HCC risk. Thirty-seven studies were included with a total of 11821 HCC patients and 15359 controls in this meta-analysis. We found hsa-mir-146a rs2910164 was associated with a decreased HCC risk in the recessive model (P=0.017, OR = 0.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.83-0.98). While hsa-mir-34b/c rs4938723 was related with an increased HCC risk in the co-dominant model (P=0.016, odds ratio (OR) = 1.19, 95%CI = 1.03-1.37). When analyzing the Hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related HCC risk, hsa-mir-196a-2 rs11614913 was associated with a decreased HBV-related HCC risk in the co-dominant and allelic models. And hsa-mir-149 rs2292832 was found to be associated with a decreased HBV-related HCC risk in the dominant and recessive models. In conclusion, hsa-mir-146a rs2910164 and hsa-mir-34b/c rs4938723 could be biomarkers for the HCC risk while hsa-mir-196a-2 rs11614913 and hsa-mir-149 rs2292832 had potential to be biomarkers for HBV-related HCC risk.

Disease burden of hepatitis C in the Austrian state of Tyrol - Epidemiological data and model analysis to achieve elimination by 2030.

BACKGROUND: In 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) and 69th World Health Assembly approved the first global health sector strategy (GHSS) on viral hepatitis with the goal to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections worldwide. The aim is a 90% reduction of new infections and 65% reduction of HCV-related deaths by 2030. AIM: This study reports on the epidemiology of HCV infections in the Austrian state of Tyrol (total population 750,000) and uses a predictive model to identify how the WHO strategy for elimination of HCV can be achieved. METHODS: We developed a regional disease burden model based on observed local diagnosis data from 2001 to 2016. Scenarios were developed to evaluate the impact of diagnosis and treatment on HCV-related outcomes (viremic prevalence, decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related deaths) from 2015 through 2030. RESULTS: In the last 15 years, 1,721 patients living in Tyrol have been diagnosed with chronic HCV infection. When ageing, mortality and treatment were factored in, there were an estimated 2,043 viremic HCV infections in 2016, of which 1,136 cases had been diagnosed. A baseline model predicts a decrease of 588 HCV cases from 2015 to 2030, which would not translate into the significant reduction of infections needed to achieve WHO global health recommendations. A total of 1,843 infected individuals need to be identified and treated to achieve the WHO goals by 2030 (1,254 averted cases as compared to baseline model). Implementation of this strategy would avoid 523 new HCV infections and decreases HCV-related mortality by 73%. CONCLUSION: HCV elimination and >65% reduction of associated mortality are possible for Tyrol, but requires a significant increase in new diagnoses and treatment rate. The model presented in this study could serve as an example for other regions to reliably predict regional disease burden and estimate how WHO goals can be met in the future.

Economic and clinical burden of viral hepatitis in California: A population-based study with longitudinal analysis.

BACKGROUND: Economic burden of HBV and HCV infection are trending upwards. AIMS: Compare hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) related hospital admission rates, charges, mortality rates, causes of death in a US population-based study. METHODS: Retrospective cohort analysis of HBV and HCV patients from the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development (2006-2013) database. RESULTS: A total of 23,891 HBV and 148,229 HCV patients were identified. Across the 8-year period, the mean increase for all-cause ($1,863 vs $1,388) and liver-related hospitalization charges ($1,175 vs $675) were significantly higher for the HBV cohort compared to the HCV cohort. HBV patients had significantly higher liver-related hospital charges per person per year than HCV patients after controlling for covariates ($123,239 vs $111,837; p = 0.002). Compared to HCV patients, adjusted mortality hazard ratio was slightly lower in HBV patients (relative risk = 0.96; 95% CI 0.94-0.99). The major causes and places of death were different. The three major causes of death for HBV were: other malignant neoplasms (35%), cardiovascular disease/other circulatory disorders (17%), and liver-related disease (15%) whereas for HCV patients were: liver-related disease (22%), other malignant neoplasms (20%), and cardiovascular disease (16%). Regarding the place of death, 53% of HBV patients and 44% of HCV patients died in hospital inpatient, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: HBV patients incurred higher liver-related hospital charges and higher mean increase for all-cause and liver-related hospitalization charges over the 8-year period compared to HCV patients. HBV patients had slightly lower mortality rate and their major causes and places of death were noticeably different from HCV patients.

Long-term natural history of liver disease in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection: an analysis using the Markov chain model.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between the hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion and the long-term natural history of liver disease has not been sufficiently investigated. METHODS: A total of 408 [4352 person-year (PY) units] patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) without antiviral therapy were enrolled. The study patients were divided into three groups, as follows: Group A (2666 PY units), seroconverted of HBeAg at age < 40; Group B (413 PY units), seroconverted of HBeAg at age ≥ 40; Group C (1273 PY units), persistently HBeAg positive. Yearly transition probabilities from each liver state [chronic HBV infection, chronic hepatitis B, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) negativity] were calculated using the Markov chain model. RESULTS: In the analysis of 1 year liver disease state transition probabilities, the liver states remained almost the same in Group A. In Groups B and C, each liver state tended to progress to a worse state. Assuming a chronic hepatitis B state at age 40 as the starting condition for simulation over the next 40 years, the chronic hepatitis B state accounted for approximately 60% of males aged ≥ 50 and approximately 40% of females aged ≥ 60 in Group A, and the HBsAg-negative state accounted for approximately 30-40% of males and females aged ≥ 60. In Groups B and C, the probabilities of patients with cirrhosis and HCC gradually increased with age. CONCLUSIONS: Not only patients with persistent HBeAg positive, but also patients with delayed HBeAg seroconversion showed poor prognosis of liver-related natural history.

Cost-effectiveness of antiviral treatment after resection in hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma patients with compensated cirrhosis.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) imposes a heavy disease burden on China due to its high morbidity and mortality. China accounts for about 50% of the total new cases and deaths worldwide. Most cases are related to hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and are associated with cirrhosis at diagnosis. Antiviral treatment with nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) after resection in HBV-related HCC can reduce recurrence and improve survival. Such treatment is in fact recommended by Chinese guidelines. However, cost-effectiveness studies regarding this treatment are rare. The objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of NA treatment after resection in HBV-related HCC patients with compensated cirrhosis. A Markov model was constructed to simulate HBV-related HCC patients with compensated cirrhosis and detectable HBV DNA, with or without NA treatment after resection, followed up over their lifetime. Costs, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were calculated for each strategy from the societal perspective. The parameters of the model were derived from published studies, government documents, and our surveys. Sensitivity analyses were used to explore the impact of parameters on the uncertainty of the results. NA treatment produced 4.22 QALYs, costing $39,898, while non-NA treatment achieved 2.80 QALYs, costing $16,048. The ICER of NA treatment versus non-NA treatment was $16,848/QALY, which was between 2 and 3 times gross domestic product per capita and was therefore deemed cost-effective. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed that NA treatment was cost-effective, with a probability of 0.852. CONCLUSION: NA treatment after liver resection was likely cost-effective in HBV-related HCC patients with compensated cirrhosis. (Hepatology 2018).

Heading Toward the Elimination of Hepatitis C Virus.

Chronic hepatitis C is often asymptomatic and may progress over the years to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Although the prevalence and incident cases are decreasing, the peak mortality of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related complications is ahead of us in most countries. The economic impact of this burden is enormous. Scaling up the identification of new opportunities to facilitate the road toward HCV elimination includes increasing screening, awareness, and the number of prescribing physicians. Screening should occur within the context of linkage-to-care and patient retention across the care continuum. Awareness and access to treatment in different countries are not systematic as countries have diverse healthcare organizations so that treatment eligibility and availability criteria vary significantly. The simplicity of oral regimens with direct-acting antiviral drugs that are effective across HCV genotypes expands the number of physicians who can prescribe them with accessible treatment models. The ultimate aim is the elimination of HCV by 2030.

Effect of direct-acting antivirals on future occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in compensated cirrhotic patients.

BACKGROUND: The achievement of high rates of sustained virological response (SVR) with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infected patients will reduce decompensating terminal events. AIMS: To investigate whether hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence could change due to the DAA-induced increase in life-expectancy. METHODS: A Markov model was built on clinical data of 494 cirrhotic patients and available literature to estimate probabilities of "death before HCC" and of "HCC occurrence" without and with DAA. RESULTS: In comparison to untreated patients, DAA therapy reduced the 20-year mortality before HCC by 21.9% in patients without varices and by 21.5% in those with varices, considering an SVR of 95% and no direct effect on hepatocarcinogenesis. Tumour occurrence increased by 5%-8.2% and the proportion of HCCs diagnosed in compensated stages increased to >98%. If we consider DAA as having "anti-tumoral" effects, the benefit becomes greater, achieving a 20-year survival of 81.5% in patients without varices, and 52.2% in patients with varices. Instead, if we consider DAA as having a "pro-tumoral" effect, then, the increased incidence of HCC nullifies the survival benefits. CONCLUSION: DAAs drastically reduce the mortality caused by the liver function worsening, increasing the proportion of HCCs diagnosed in compensated stages. Knowledge of the DAA effect on hepatocarcinogenesis remains pivotal.

Risk Assessment of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Hepatitis C in China and the USA.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C (HCV) infection is an increasingly common cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in China. AIMS: We aimed to determine differences in demographic and behavioral profiles associated with HCC in HCV+ patients in China and the USA. METHODS: Consecutive HCV+ patients were recruited from centers in China and the USA. Clinical data and lifestyle profiles were obtained through standardized questionnaires. Multivariable analysis was conducted to determine factors associated with HCC diagnosis within groups. RESULTS: We included 41 HCC patients from China and 71 from the USA, and 931 non-HCC patients in China and 859 in China. Chinese patients with HCC were significantly younger, less likely to be male and to be obese than US patients with HCC (all p < 0.001). Chinese patients with HCC had a significantly lower rate of cirrhosis diagnosis (36.6 vs. 78.9%, p < 0.001); however, they also had a higher rate of hepatitis B core antibody positivity (63.4 vs. 36.8%, p = 0.007). In a multivariable analysis of the entire Chinese cohort, age > 55, male sex, the presence of diabetes, and time from maximum weight were associated with HCC, while tea consumption was associated with a decreased HCC risk (OR 0.37, 95% CI 0.16-0.88). In the US cohort, age > 55, male sex, and cirrhosis were associated with HCC on multivariable analysis. CONCLUSIONS: With the aging Chinese population and increasing rates of diabetes, there will likely be continued increase in the incidence of HCV-related HCC in China. The protective effect of tea consumption on HCC development deserves further validation.

Future complications of chronic hepatitis C in a low-risk area: projections from the hepatitis c study in Northern Norway.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C (HCV) infection causes an asymptomatic chronic hepatitis in most affected individuals, which often remains undetected until cirrhosis and cirrhosis-related complications occur. Screening of high-risk subjects in Northern Norway has revealed a relatively low prevalence in the general population (0.24%). Despite this, late complications of HCV infection are increasing. Our object was to estimate the future prevalence and complications of chronic HCV infection in the period 2013-2050 in a low-risk area. METHODS: We have entered available data into a prognostic Markov model to project future complications to HCV infection. RESULTS: The model extrapolates the prevalence in the present cohort of HCV-infected individuals, and assumes a stable low incidence in the projection period. We predict an almost three-fold increase in the incidence of cirrhosis (68 per 100,000), of decompensated cirrhosis (21 per 100,000) and of hepatocellular carcinoma (4 per 100,000) by 2050, as well as a six-fold increase in the cumulated number of deaths from HCV-related liver disease (170 per 100,000 inhabitants). All estimates are made assuming an unchanged treatment coverage of approximately 15%. The estimated numbers can be reduced by approximately 50% for cirrhosis, and by approximately one third for the other endpoints if treatment coverage is raised to 50%. CONCLUSION: These projections from a low-prevalence area indicate a substantial rise in HCV-related morbidity and mortality in the coming years. The global HCV epidemic is of great concern and increased treatment coverage is necessary to reduce the burden of the disease.