RESUMO
Uncertainties in thyroid doses due to I intake were evaluated for 2,239 subjects in a case-control study of thyroid cancer following exposure to Chernobyl fallout during childhood and adolescence carried out in contaminated regions of Belarus and Russia. Using new methodological developments that became available recently, a Monte Carlo simulation procedure was applied to calculate 1,000 alternative vectors of thyroid doses due to I intake for the study population of 2,239 subjects accounting for sources of shared and unshared errors. An overall arithmetic mean of the stochastic thyroid doses in the study was estimated to be 0.43 Gy and median dose of 0.16 Gy. The arithmetic mean and median of deterministic doses estimated previously for 1,615 of 2,239 study subjects were 0.48 Gy and 0.20 Gy, respectively. The geometric standard deviation of individual stochastic doses varied from 1.59 to 3.61 with an arithmetic mean of 1.94 and a geometric mean of 1.89 over all subjects of the study. These multiple sets of thyroid doses were used to update radiation-related thyroid cancer risks in the study population exposed to I after the Chernobyl accident.
Assuntos
Radioisótopos do Iodo/efeitos adversos , Radioisótopos do Iodo/química , Neoplasias Induzidas por Radiação/induzido quimicamente , Glândula Tireoide/efeitos da radiação , Neoplasias da Glândula Tireoide/induzido quimicamente , Adolescente , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Radioisótopos de Césio/química , Radioisótopos de Césio/farmacologia , Acidente Nuclear de Chernobyl , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Simulação por Computador , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Modelos Estatísticos , Método de Monte Carlo , Doses de Radiação , Exposição à Radiação , Radiometria , República de Belarus , Medição de Risco , Federação Russa , IncertezaRESUMO
The objective of the present study was to assess the lung cancer risk induced by exposures to radon progeny of people living in some areas of Transylvania, Romania. Indoor radon concentrations were measured in 667 dwellings of Stei area, Cluj, Bistrita-Nasaud, Sibiu, and Alba counties. Measurements were performed using CR-39 track detectors, exposed for a minimum of 3 mo. Average annual radon concentrations were 232, 114, 71, 62, and 161 Bq m for Stei area, Cluj, Bistrita-Nasaud, Sibiu, and Alba, respectively. The linear risk model of Darby was used to simulate the dose-effect relationship and relative lung cancer risk at low doses of alpha particles specific to residential radon exposures. Predicted relative risks at the measured exposure levels, together with information on the total number of reported lung cancer deaths and the number of people living in these regions, enabled us to estimate the fraction of lung cancer cases in each area that is attributable to radon. These percentages are 16.67% for Stei area, 9.09% for Cluj, 5.66% for Bistrita-Nasaud, 4.76% for Sibiu, and 12.28% for Alba county among lifetime non-smokers. Assuming that the smoking rates are similar for the investigated regions (10.72% smokers among men and 5.95% among women), around 64 to 69% of the total number of annual lung cancer deaths, stratified by sex, would be attributed to radon and occur among smoking male population, and around 35 to 44% would be attributed to radon and occur among smoking female population.