Simulating the healthcare workforce impact and capacity for pancreatic cancer care in Victoria: a model-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of pancreatic cancer is rising. With improvements in knowledge for screening and early detection, earlier detection of pancreatic cancer will continue to be more common. To support workforce planning, our aim is to perform a model-based analysis that simulates the potential impact on the healthcare workforce, assuming an earlier diagnosis of pancreatic cancer. METHODS: We developed a simulation model to estimate the demand (i.e. new cases of pancreatic cancer) and supply (i.e. the healthcare workforce including general surgeons, medical oncologists, radiation oncologists, pain medicine physicians, and palliative care physicians) between 2023 and 2027 in Victoria, Australia. The model compares the current scenario to one in which pancreatic cancer is diagnosed at an earlier stage. The incidence of pancreatic cancer in Victoria, five-year survival rates, and Victoria's population size were obtained from Victorian Cancer Registry, Cancer Council NSW, and Australian Bureau of Statistics respectively. The healthcare workforce data were sourced from the Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care's Health Workforce Data. The model was constructed at the remoteness level. We analysed the new cases and the number of healthcare workforce by profession together to assess the impact on the healthcare workforce. RESULTS: In the status quo, over the next five years, there will be 198 to 220 stages I-II, 297 to 330 stage III, and 495 to 550 stage IV pancreatic cancer cases diagnosed annually, respectively. Assuming 20-70% of the shift towards pancreatic cancer's earlier diagnosis (shifting from stage IV to stages I-II pancreatic cancer within one year), the stages I-II cases could increase to 351 to 390 or 598 to 665 per year. The shift to early diagnosis led to substantial survival gains, translating into an additional 284 or 795 out of 5246 patients with pancreatic cancer remaining alive up to year 5 post-diagnosis. Workforce supply decreases significantly by the remoteness levels, and remote areas face a shortage of key medical professionals registered in delivering pancreatic cancer care, suggesting travel necessities by patients or clinicians. CONCLUSION: Improving the early detection and diagnosis of pancreatic cancer is expected to bring significant survival benefits, although there are workforce distribution imbalances in Victoria that may affect the ability to achieve the anticipated survival gain.

A Randomized Trial of Two Remote Health Care Delivery Models on the Uptake of Genetic Testing and Impact on Patient-Reported Psychological Outcomes in Families With Pancreatic Cancer: The Genetic Education, Risk Assessment, and Testing (GENERATE) Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Genetic testing uptake for cancer susceptibility in family members of patients with cancer is suboptimal. Among relatives of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), The GENetic Education, Risk Assessment, and TEsting (GENERATE) study evaluated 2 online genetic education/testing delivery models and their impact on patient-reported psychological outcomes. METHODS: Eligible participants had ≥1 first-degree relative with PDAC, or ≥1 first-/second-degree relative with PDAC with a known pathogenic germline variant in 1 of 13 PDAC predisposition genes. Participants were randomized by family, between May 8, 2019, and June 1, 2021. Arm 1 participants underwent a remote interactive telemedicine session and online genetic education. Arm 2 participants were offered online genetic education only. All participants were offered germline testing. The primary outcome was genetic testing uptake, compared by permutation tests and mixed-effects logistic regression models. We hypothesized that Arm 1 participants would have a higher genetic testing uptake than Arm 2. Validated surveys were administered to assess patient-reported anxiety, depression, and cancer worry at baseline and 3 months postintervention. RESULTS: A total of 424 families were randomized, including 601 participants (n = 296 Arm 1; n = 305 Arm 2), 90% of whom completed genetic testing (Arm 1 [87%]; Arm 2 [93%], P = .014). Arm 1 participants were significantly less likely to complete genetic testing compared with Arm 2 participants (adjusted ratio [Arm1/Arm2] 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.78-0.98). Among participants who completed patient-reported psychological outcomes questionnaires (Arm 1 [n = 194]; Arm 2 [n = 206]), the intervention did not affect mean anxiety, depression, or cancer worry scores. CONCLUSIONS: Remote genetic education and testing can be a successful and complementary option for delivering genetics care. (Clinicaltrials.gov, number NCT03762590).

Prognostic potential of nutritional risk screening and assessment tools in predicting survival of patients with pancreatic neoplasms: a systematic review.

BACKGROUNDS & AIMS: The nutritional evaluation of pancreatic cancer (PC) patients lacks a gold standard or scientific consensus, we aimed to summarize and systematically evaluate the prognostic value of nutritional screening and assessment tools used for PC patients. METHODS: Relevant studies were retrieved from major databases (PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library) and searched from January 2010 to December 2023. We performed meta-analyses with STATA 14.0 when three or more studies used the same tool. RESULTS: This analysis included 27 articles involving 6,060 PC patients. According to a meta-analysis of these studies, poor nutritional status evaluated using five nutritional screening tools Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI), Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI), Controlling Nutritional Status Score (CONUT), Nutrition Risk Screening (NRS2002) and Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) was associated with all-cause mortality in PC patients. But Modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) did not. Of all tools analyzed, CONUT had the maximum HR for mortality (HR = 1.978, 95%CI 1.345-2.907, P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: All-cause mortality in PC patients was predicted by poor nutritional status. CONUT may be the best nutritional assessment tool for PC patients. The clinical application value of Short Form Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA-SF), Generated Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) and Patient-generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) in PC patients need to be confirmed. In order to improve patients' nutritional status and promote their recovery, nutritional screening tools can be used. REGISTRATION: This systematic review was registered at the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) (number CRD42022376715).

Contributions of the Microbiome-Derived Metabolome for Risk Assessment and Prognostication of Pancreatic Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence implicates microbiome involvement in the development and progression of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Studies suggest that reflux of gut or oral microbiota can lead to colonization in the pancreas, resulting in dysbiosis that culminates in release of microbial toxins and metabolites that potentiate an inflammatory response and increase susceptibility to PDAC. Moreover, microbe-derived metabolites can exert direct effector functions on precursors and cancer cells, as well as other cell types, to either promote or attenuate tumor development and modulate treatment response. CONTENT: The occurrence of microbial metabolites in biofluids thereby enables risk assessment and prognostication of PDAC, as well as having potential for design of interception strategies. In this review, we first highlight the relevance of the microbiome for progression of precancerous lesions in the pancreas and, using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry, provide supporting evidence that microbe-derived metabolites manifest in pancreatic cystic fluid and are associated with malignant progression of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm(s). We secondly summarize the biomarker potential of microbe-derived metabolite signatures for (a) identifying individuals at high risk of developing or harboring PDAC and (b) predicting response to treatment and disease outcomes. SUMMARY: The microbiome-derived metabolome holds considerable promise for risk assessment and prognostication of PDAC.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Screening for Pancreatic Cancer Among High-Risk Populations.

PURPOSE: We evaluated the potential cost-effectiveness of combined magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) screening for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) among populations at high risk for the disease. METHODS: We used a microsimulation model of the natural history of PDAC to estimate the lifetime health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of PDAC screening among populations with specific genetic risk factors for PDAC, including BRCA1 and BRCA2, PALB2, ATM, Lynch syndrome, TP53, CDKN2A, and STK11. For each high-risk population, we simulated 29 screening strategies, defined by starting age and frequency. Screening included MRI with follow-up EUS in a subset of patients. Costs of tests were based on Medicare reimbursement for MRI, EUS, fine-needle aspiration biopsy, and pancreatectomy. Cancer-related cost by stage of disease and phase of treatment was based on the literature. For each high-risk population, we performed an incremental cost-effectiveness analysis, assuming a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $100,000 US dollars (USD) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. RESULTS: For men with relative risk (RR) 12.33 (CDKN2A) and RR 28 (STK11), annual screening was cost-effective, starting at age 55 and 40 years, respectively. For women, screening was only cost-effective for those with RR 28 (STK11), with annual screening starting at age 45 years. CONCLUSION: Combined MRI/EUS screening may be a cost-effective approach for the highest-risk populations (among mutations considered, those with RR >12). However, for those with moderate risk (RR, 5-12), screening would only be cost-effective at higher WTP thresholds (eg, $200K USD/QALY) or with once-only screening.

Homeostasis Model Assessment of ß-Cell Function for Diagnosis of Insulinoma.

CONTEXT: Diagnosis of insulinoma is based on different criteria from the 72-hour fasting test according to current guidelines (Endocrine Society [ES], European [ENETS], and North American [NANETS] Neuroendocrine Tumor Societies), including assessment of ß-cell function by glucagon stimulation test. OBJECTIVE: This study tested whether the homeostasis model assessment of insulin secretion, including assessment of ß-cell function, (HOMA-B) at the end of the fasting test provides comparable efficacy for insulinoma diagnosis. METHODS: In 104 patients with suspected insulinoma, 72-hour fasting tests were performed with frequent assessment of glucose, insulin, and C-peptide in venous blood. HOMA-B values using insulin and C-peptide were calculated at the end of the fasting test, as defined by the lowest glucose concentration from each participant. RESULTS: HOMA-B was more than 6.5-fold higher in patients with (n = 23) than in those without (n = 81) insulinoma (insulin and C-peptide; both P < .001). HOMA-B (cutoff using insulin >253 a.u. and C-peptide >270 a.u.) had a sensitivity of 0.96, 0.78 to 1.00, and a specificity of 0.96 or greater (≥0.89-0.99) for insulinoma diagnosis. ES and ENETS/NANETS criteria reached a diagnostic sensitivity of less than or equal to 0.96 (≤0.78-1.00) and ≤0.83 (≤0.61-0.95) as well as specificity of ≤0.85 (≤0.76-0.92) and less than or equal to 1.00 (≤0.96-1.00) for insulin, and C-peptide, respectively. Using insulin for HOMA-B, sensitivity tended to be higher compared to ENETS/NANETS criteria (P = .063) and specificity was higher compared to ES criteria using insulin and C-peptide (both P < .005). CONCLUSION: HOMA-B, as calculated at the end of the fasting test employing defined cutoffs for insulin and C-peptide, provides excellent diagnostic efficacy, suggesting that it might represent an alternative and precise tool to diagnose insulinoma.

Impact of Biopsy Attempts, Race, and Access on Time to Initiation of Treatment for Pancreatic Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Biopsy of suspected pancreatic cancer (PDAC) in surgical candidates is informative however not always necessary. Biopsies impact treatment options as histological diagnosis are presently required for neo-adjuvant therapy, but not surgical resection. We explored the impact of pursuing tissue diagnosis by endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) biopsy on time to treatment in patients with resectable and borderline resectable PDAC. METHODS: A retrospective review of surgical patients with ultimately proven PDAC was performed (2011-2021). Milestone dates (cancer suspected, biopsy(ies), surgical or neo-adjuvant treatment) were collected. Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon tests, Pearson's chi-squared tests, Fisher's exact tests, linear regressions, and Cox proportional hazard models were used for data analysis. RESULTS: Among 131 resectable and 58 borderline resectable patients, the borderline resectable group underwent more biopsies (1.2 vs 0.7, p < 0.0001), were more likely to undergo biopsy at tertiary care centers (67.2% vs 30.5%, p < 0.0001), and trended toward longer time to treatment (49 vs 44 days, p = 0.070). Significant increases in days to treatment were seen in patients with Black race (29 days, p = 0.0002) and Medicare insurance (22 days, p = 0.038) and no biopsies at a tertiary care center (10 days, p = 0.039). After adjusting for covariates, additional biopsies significantly delayed treatment (1 biopsy: 21 days, p = 0.0001; 2 biopsies: 44 days, p < 0.0001; 3 biopsies: 68 days, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: EUS biopsy significantly impacts time between suspicion and treatment of PDAC. This may be exacerbated by clinical practices increasingly favoring neo-adjuvant therapy that necessitates biopsy-proven disease. Time to treatment may also be impacted by access to tertiary centers and racial disparities.

The Evaluation of Gallstone Disease in the Year Before Pancreatic Cancer Diagnosis.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with pancreatic cancer can present with a variety of insidious abdominal symptoms, complicating initial diagnosis. Early symptoms of pancreatic cancer often mirror those associated with gallstone disease, which has been demonstrated to be a risk factor for this malignancy. This study aims to compare the incidence of gallstone disease in the year before diagnosis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) as compared to the general population, and evaluate the association of gallstone disease with stage at diagnosis and surgical intervention. METHODS: Patients with PDAC were identified from SEER-Medicare (2008-2015). The incidence of gallstone disease (defined as cholelithiasis, cholecystitis and/or cholecystectomy) in the 1 year before cancer diagnosis was compared to the annual incidence in an age-matched, sex-matched, and race-matched noncancer Medicare cohort. RESULTS: Among 14,654 patients with PDAC, 4.4% had gallstone disease in the year before cancer diagnosis. Among the noncancer controls (n = 14,654), 1.9% had gallstone disease. Both cohorts had similar age, sex and race distributions. PDAC patients with gallstone disease were diagnosed at an earlier stage (stage 0/I-II, 45.8% versus 38.1%, P < 0.0001) and a higher proportion underwent resection (22.7% versus 17.4%, P = 0.0004) compared to patients without gallstone disease. CONCLUSIONS: In the year before PDAC diagnosis, patients present with gallstone disease more often than the general population. Improving follow-up care and differential diagnosis strategies may help combat the high mortality rate in PDAC by providing an opportunity for earlier stage of diagnosis and earlier intervention.

The Use of Integrated Molecular Testing in the Assessment and Management of Pancreatic Cysts.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: As abdominal imaging becomes more sensitive and regularly used, pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs) are being diagnosed more frequently. A small but clinically significant minority of these lesions have a predisposition to either harbor malignancy or undergo malignant transformation. This review highlights the current state and performance of cystic fluid biomarkers and how they may be incorporated into management. RECENT FINDINGS: Among the major domains of molecular testing for PCLs, DNA based analyses have demonstrated the highest accuracy in identifying cyst type and have the most data to support their clinical use. However, epigenetic and protein biomarker based molecular assessments have emerged with the potential to complement DNA based approaches. In addition, recent studies have increasingly demonstrated the value associated with combinations of mutations and other biomarkers in identifying higher grade mucinous cystic lesions. We present the performance of individual biomarkers in cyst fluid analysis with an emphasis on an algorithmic approach to improve the accurate identification of both cyst type and risk of malignant transformation.

Cost-effectiveness of pancreas surveillance: The CDKN2A-p16-Leiden cohort.

BACKGROUND: CDKN2A-p16-Leiden mutation carriers have a high lifetime risk of developing pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), with very poor survival. Surveillance may improve prognosis. OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of surveillance, as compared to no surveillance. METHODS: In 2000, a surveillance program was initiated at Leiden University Medical Center with annual MRI and optional endoscopic ultrasound. Data were collected on the resection rate of screen-detected tumors and on survival. The Kaplan-Meier method and a parametric cure model were used to analyze and compare survival. Based on the surveillance and survival data from the screening program, a state-transition model was constructed to estimate lifelong outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 347 mutation carriers participated in the surveillance program. PDAC was detected in 31 patients (8.9%) and the tumor could be resected in 22 patients (71.0%). Long-term cure among patients with resected PDAC was estimated at 47.1% (p < 0.001). The surveillance program was estimated to reduce mortality from PDAC by 12.1% and increase average life expectancy by 2.10 years. Lifelong costs increased by €13,900 per patient, with a cost-utility ratio of €14,000 per quality-adjusted life year gained. For annual surveillance to have an acceptable cost-effectiveness in other settings, lifetime PDAC risk needs to be 10% or higher. CONCLUSION: The tumor could be resected in most patients with a screen-detected PDAC. These patients had considerably better survival and as a result annual surveillance was found to be cost-effective.

Pancreatic Cancer: Changing Epidemiology and New Approaches to Risk Assessment, Early Detection, and Prevention.

Pancreatic cancer usually results in poor survival with limited options for treatment, as most affected individuals present with advanced disease. Early detection of preinvasive pancreatic neoplasia and identifying molecular therapeutic targets provide opportunities for extending survival. Although screening for pancreatic cancer is currently not recommended for the general population, emerging evidence indicates that pancreatic surveillance can improve outcomes for individuals in certain high-risk groups. Changes in the epidemiology of pancreatic cancer, experience from pancreatic surveillance, and discovery of novel biomarkers provide a roadmap for new strategies for pancreatic cancer risk assessment, early detection, and prevention.

Impact of Medicaid Expansion on Stage at Diagnosis for US Adults with Pancreatic Cancer: a Population-Based Study.

INTRODUCTION: We evaluated whether Medicaid expansion is associated with earlier stage at diagnosis for pancreatic cancer taking into account key demographic, clinical, and geographic factors. METHODS: We obtained Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results (SEER-18) data on individuals diagnosed with pancreatic cancer from 2007 to 2016 (< 65 years of age). We defined non-metastatic as either local or regional disease (vs. metastatic disease). To estimate the association of Medicaid expansion with pancreatic cancer stage at diagnosis, we used a difference-in-differences model, at the individual level, comparing those from early-adopting states in 2014 to non-early-adopting states. We utilized cluster-robust standard errors and explored the role of demographic factors (race, sex, insurance at diagnosis), clinical indicator (disease in the head of the pancreas), and county characteristics (Urban Influence Code, Social Deprivation Index). RESULTS: In the univariable setting, the probability of non-metastatic disease at diagnosis increased by 3.9 percentage points (ppt) for those from Medicaid expansion states post-expansion (n = 36,609). After adjustment for covariates, the ppt was attenuated to 2.7. Of particular note, we observed evidence of interactions with sex and race. The beneficial effect was less pronounced for men (increase in the probability of non-metastatic stage at diagnosis by 2.1ppt) than women (3.6ppt) and non-existent for blacks (- 3.1ppt) compared to whites (4.9ppt) and other races (4.8ppt). CONCLUSION: Medicaid expansion is associated with increased probability of non-metastatic stage at diagnosis for pancreatic cancer; however, this beneficial effect is not uniform across sex and race. This underscores the need to investigate the impact of policy and implementation strategies on pancreatic cancer survival disparities.

Survival of cancer survivors with a new pancreatic cancer diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: Persons newly diagnosed with pancreas cancer and who have survived a previous cancer are often excluded from clinical trials, despite limited evidence about their prognosis. We examined the association between previous cancer and overall survival. METHODS: This US population-based cohort study included older adults (aged ≥66 years) diagnosed with pancreas cancer between 2005 and 2015 in the linked Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare data. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate stage-specific effects of previous cancer on overall survival, adjusting for sociodemographic, treatment, and tumor characteristics. RESULTS: Of 32,783 patients, 18.7% were previously diagnosed with another cancer. The most common previous cancers included prostate (29.0%), breast (18.9%), or colorectal (9.7%) cancer. More than half of previous cancers (53.9%) were diagnosed 5 or more years prior to pancreas cancer diagnosis or at an in situ or localized stage (47.8%). The proportions of patients surviving 1, 3, and 5 years after pancreas cancer were nearly identical for those with and without previous cancer. Median survival in months was as follows for those with and without previous cancer respectively: 7 versus 8 (Stage 0/I), 10 versus 10 (Stage II), 7 versus 7 (Stage III), and 3 versus 2 (Stage IV). Cox models indicated that patients with previous cancer had very similar or statistically equivalent survival to those with no previous cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Given nearly equivalent survival compared to those without previous cancer, cancer survivors newly diagnosed with pancreas cancer should be considered for inclusion in pancreas cancer clinical trials.

Model-based screening for pancreatic cancer in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Detecting pancreatic cancer at an earlier stage may contribute to an increased survival. Patients with stage I pancreatic cancer have a 5-year survival rate of 36%, while stage IV patients have a 5-year survival rate of 1% in Sweden. Research into novel blood-based biomarkers for pancreatic cancer is highly intensive and innovative, but has yet to result in any routine screening test. The aim of this study was to evaluate the specificity and sensitivity of a hypothetical blood test for pancreatic cancer used for screening purposes and the economic aspects of testing. METHOD: A model of a screening test was created, with varying specificity and sensitivity both set at 80%, 85%, 90%, 95% or 99% and applied to selected risk groups. Excessive costs of false positive screening outcomes, QALYs, ICERs and total costs were calculated. RESULTS: Individuals with family history and genetic mutations associated with pancreatic cancer, new-onset diabetes ≥50 years of age and early symptoms had the highest positive predictive values and ICERs beneath the willingness-to-pay-level of EUR 100,000/QALY. Screening of the general population and smokers resulted in a high rate of false positive cases and extensive extra costs. CONCLUSIONS: General screening for pancreatic cancer is not cost-effective, while screening of certain high-risk groups may be economically justified given the availability of a high-performing blood-based test.

Assessment of spatial transcriptomics for oncology discovery.

Tumor heterogeneity is a major challenge for oncology drug discovery and development. Understanding of the spatial tumor landscape is key to identifying new targets and impactful model systems. Here, we test the utility of spatial transcriptomics (ST) for oncology discovery by profiling 40 tissue sections and 80,024 capture spots across a diverse set of tissue types, sample formats, and RNA capture chemistries. We verify the accuracy and fidelity of ST by leveraging matched pathology analysis, which provides a ground truth for tissue section composition. We then use spatial data to demonstrate the capture of key tumor depth features, identifying hypoxia, necrosis, vasculature, and extracellular matrix variation. We also leverage spatial context to identify relative cell-type locations showing the anti-correlation of tumor and immune cells in syngeneic cancer models. Lastly, we demonstrate target identification approaches in clinical pancreatic adenocarcinoma samples, highlighting tumor intrinsic biomarkers and paracrine signaling.

A Single-center Prospective Observational Study Investigating the Accuracy of Preoperative Diagnostic Procedures in the Assessment of Lymph Node Metastases in Nonfunctioning Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the accuracy of preoperative imaging, including contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CE-CT), endoscopic ultrasound (EUS), and 68 Gallium-DOTATOC positron emission tomography ( 68 Ga-DOTATOC PET), in identifying nodal metastases (N+) in sporadic nonfunctioning pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (NF-PanNETs). BACKGROUND: An accurate preoperative identification of N+ in NF-PanNETs is critical for surgical planning. The accuracy of different imaging techniques in detecting lymph node (LN) metastases in NF-PanNETs has been poorly investigated. METHODS: All consecutive patients undergoing surgery for sporadic NF-PanNETs (2018-2021) were enrolled in a prospective study (DETECTYON; NCT03918759). The accuracy of preoperative imaging techniques in detecting N+ was assessed through sensitivity, specificity positive and negative predictive values. RESULTS: Overall, 100 patients with NF-PanNETs underwent CE-CT, EUS, and 68 Ga-DOTATOC PET before pancreatic resection. LN metastases were found in 42 cases (42%). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of different imaging techniques were 26%, 95%, 79%, 64% for CE-CT, 19%, 98%, 89%, 63% for EUS, and 12%, 95%, 63%, 60% for 68 Ga-DOTATOC PET, respectively. Radiologic tumor size >4 cm and the presence of radiologic N+ at ≥1 imaging were independent predictors of N+ at pathology. The identification of N+ at ≥1 imaging technique was associated with a higher number of positive LNs compared with negative imaging (4 vs 2) ( P =0.012). CONCLUSIONS: CE-CT, EUS, and 68 Ga-DOTATOC PET are poorly sensitive in predicting nodal status in NF-PanNETs despite a high specificity.

Differential effects of the Affordable Care Act on the stage at presentation and receipt of treatment for pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: For pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) which lacks a recommended screening modality, the benefit of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) may not be an earlier diagnosis, but rather improved rates of treatment. The objective of this study was to examine change in the stage of PDAC presentation and treatment disparities following the ACA. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of patients with primary PDAC identified in the 2004-2017 National Cancer Database was divided into pre- and post-ACA, for which the primary outcomes of a stage of presentation, receipt of surgical resection, and systemic therapy (termed multimodality) (Stage I-II), and receipt of systemic therapy (Stage III-IV) were compared by multivariable analysis. RESULTS: 228,015 patients were included. Odds of presenting with Stage I-II PDAC were significantly higher in 2011-2017 versus 2004-2010 (odds ratio 1.44, 95% confidence interval 1.40-1.47). Black patients with early-stage disease had a lower likelihood of multimodality therapy and those with advanced disease were less likely to receive systemic therapy, before and after the ACA. Uninsured patients were less likely to receive any therapy compared with insured patients; this disparity increased in the post-ACA period. CONCLUSIONS: An earlier presentation of PDAC increased following the ACA. However, racial, insurance, and socioeconomic treatment disparities persist.

On optimal biomarker cutoffs accounting for misclassification costs in diagnostic trilemmas with applications to pancreatic cancer.

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is the most deadly cancer and currently there is strong clinical interest in novel biomarkers that contribute to its early detection. Assessing appropriately the accuracy of such biomarkers is a crucial issue and often one needs to take into account that many assays include biospecimens of individuals coming from three groups: healthy, chronic pancreatitis, and PDAC. The ROC surface is an appropriate tool for assessing the overall accuracy of a marker employed under such trichotomous settings. A decision/classification rule is often based on the so-called Youden index and its three-dimensional generalization. However, both the clinical and the statistical literature have not paid the necessary attention to the underlying false classification (FC) rates that are of equal or even greater importance. In this article we provide a framework to make inferences around all classification rates as well as comparisons. We explore the trinormal model, flexible models based on power transformations, and robust non-parametric alternatives. We provide a full framework for the construction of confidence intervals, regions, and spaces for joint inferences or for clinically meaningful points of interest. We further discuss the implications of costs related to different FCs. We evaluate our approaches through extensive simulations and illustrate them using data from a recent PDAC study conducted at the MD Anderson Cancer Center.