Trends in educational inequalities in smoking-attributable mortality and their impact on changes in general mortality inequalities: evidence from England and Wales, Finland, and Italy (Turin).

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic mortality inequalities are persistent in Europe but have been changing over time. Smoking is a known contributor to inequality levels, but knowledge about its impact on time trends in inequalities is sparse. METHODS: We studied trends in educational inequalities in smoking-attributable mortality (SAM) and assessed their impact on general mortality inequality trends in England and Wales (E&W), Finland, and Italy (Turin) from 1972 to 2017. We used yearly individually linked all-cause and lung cancer mortality data by educational level and sex for individuals aged 30 and older. SAM was indirectly estimated using the Preston-Glei-Wilmoth method. We calculated the slope index of inequality (SII) and performed segmented regression on SIIs for all-cause, smoking and non-SAM to identify phases in inequality trends. The impact of SAM on all-cause mortality inequality trends was estimated by comparing changes in SII for all-cause with non-SAM. RESULTS: Inequalities in SAM generally declined among males and increased among females, except in Italy. Among males in E&W and Finland, SAM contributed 93% and 76% to declining absolute all-cause mortality inequalities, but this contribution varied over time. Among males in Italy, SAM drove the 1976-1992 increase in all-cause mortality inequalities. Among females in Finland, increasing inequalities in SAM hampered larger declines in mortality inequalities. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate that differing education-specific SAM trends by country and sex result in different inequality trends, and consequent contributions of SAM on educational mortality inequalities. The following decades of the smoking epidemic could increase educational mortality inequalities among Finnish and Italian women.

Racialized Economic Segregation and Treatment and Outcomes of Small Cell Lung Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the role of residential segregation in the treatment and outcomes of small cell lung cancer (SCLC), a highly recalcitrant disease, among non-Hispanic White (NHW) and non-Hispanic Black (NHB) patients. METHODS: We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database to identify men and women diagnosed with SCLC from January 2007 to December 2015 (n = 38,393). An Index of Concentration at the Extremes was computed to measure county-level racialized economic segregation and categorized into Quartile 1 (most privileged: highest concentration of high-income NHW residents) through Quartile 4 (least privileged: highest concentration of low-income NHB residents). Multilevel logistic regression was used to estimate the ORs for extensive-stage diagnosis and nonadherence to guideline-recommended treatment. HRs for lung cancer-specific and overall mortalities were computed using multilevel Cox regression. RESULTS: Patients in the least privileged counties had higher risks of nonadherence to guideline-recommended treatment [OR = 1.23; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08-1.40; Ptrend < 0.01], lung cancer-specific mortality (HR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.04-1.12; Ptrend < 0.01), and all-cause mortality (HR = 1.13; 95% CI: 1.09-1.17; Ptrend < 0.0001) compared with patients in the most privileged counties. Adjustment for treatment did not significantly reduce the association with mortality. These associations were comparable between NHB and NHW patients. Segregation was not significantly associated with extensive-stage diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that living in the neighborhoods with higher proportions of low-income households and Black residents had adverse impacts on stage-appropriate treatment of and survival from SCLC. IMPACT: This highlights the need for improving the access to quality lung cancer care in the less privileged neighborhoods.

Clinical characteristic and survival outcomes of patients with advanced NSCLC according to KRAS mutational status in the French real-life ESME cohort.

PURPOSE: The RAS/MEK signaling pathway is essential in carcinogenesis and frequently altered in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), notably by KRAS mutations (KRASm) that affect 25%-30% of non-squamous NSCLC. This study aims to explore the impact of KRASm subtypes on disease phenotype and survival outcomes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of the French Epidemiological Strategy and Medical Economics database for advanced or metastatic lung cancer from 2011 to 2021. Patient demographics, histology, KRASm status, treatment strategies, and outcomes were assessed. RESULTS: Of 10 177 assessable patients for KRAS status, 17.6% had KRAS p.G12C mutation, 22.6% had KRAS non-p.G12C mutation, and 59.8% were KRASwt. KRASm patients were more often smokers (96.3%) compared with KRASwt (85.8%). A higher proportion of programmed death-ligand 1 ≥50% was found for KRASm patients: 43.5% versus 38.0% (P < 0.01). KRASm correlated with poorer outcomes. First-line median progression-free survival was shorter in the KRASm than the KRASwt cohort: 4.0 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.7-4.3 months] versus 5.1 months (95% CI 4.8-5.3 months), P < 0.001. First-line overall survival was shorter for KRASm than KRASwt patients: 12.6 months (95% CI 11.6-13.6 months) versus 15.4 months (95% CI 14.6-16.2 months), P = 0.012. First-line chemoimmunotherapy offered better overall survival in KRAS p.G12C (48.8 months) compared with KRAS non-p.G12C (24.0 months) and KRASwt (22.5 months) patients. Second-line overall survival with immunotherapy was superior in the KRAS p.G12C subgroup: 12.6 months (95% CI 8.1-18.6 months) compared with 9.4 months (95% CI 8.0-11.4 months) for KRAS non-p.G12C and 9.6 months (8.4-11.0 months) for KRASwt patients. CONCLUSION: We highlighted distinct clinical profiles and survival outcomes according to KRASm subtypes. Notably KRAS p.G12C mutations may provide increased sensitivity to immunotherapy, suggesting potential therapeutic implications for sequencing or combination of therapies. Further research on the impact of emerging KRAS specific inhibitors are warranted in real-world cohorts.

Investigating socioeconomic disparities in lung cancer diagnosis, treatment and mortality: an Italian cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is one of the most lethal cancers worldwide and patient clinical outcomes seem influenced by their socioeconomic position (SEP). Since little has been investigated on this topic in the Italian context, our aim was to investigate the role of SEP in the care pathway of lung cancer patients in terms of diagnosis, treatment and mortality. METHODS: This observational retrospective cohort study included patients discharged in the Lazio Region with a lung cancer diagnosis between 2014 and 2017. In the main analysis, educational level was used as SEP measure. Multivariate models, adjusted for demographic and clinical variables, were applied to evaluate the association between SEP and study outcomes, stratified for metastatic (M) and non-metastatic (NM) cancer. We defined a diagnosis as 'delayed' when patients received their initial cancer diagnosis after an emergency department admission. Access to advanced lung cancer treatments (high-cost, novel and innovative treatments) and mortality were investigated within the 24-month period post-diagnosis. Moreover, two additional indicators of SEP were examined in the sensitivity analysis: one focusing on area deprivation and the other on income-based exemption. RESULTS: A total of 13,251 patients were identified (37.3% with metastasis). The majority were males (> 60%) and over half were older than 70 years. The distribution of SEP levels among patients was as follow: 31% low, 29% medium-low, 32% medium-high and 7% high. As SEP increased, the risks of receiving a delayed diagnosis ((high vs low: M: OR = 0.29 (0.23-0.38), NM: OR = 0.20 (0.16-0.25)) and of mortality ((high vs low M: OR = 0.77 (0.68-0.88) and NM: 0.61 (0.54-0.69)) decreased. Access to advanced lung cancer treatments increased in accordance with SEP only in the M cohort (high vs low: M: OR = 1.57 (1.18-2.09)). The primary findings were corroborated by sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlighted the need of public health preventive and educational programs in Italy, a country where the care pathway of lung cancer patients, especially in terms of diagnosis and mortality, appears to be negatively affected by SEP level.

Extended pleurectomy decortication and chemotherapy versus chemotherapy alone for pleural mesothelioma (MARS 2): a phase 3 randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Extended pleurectomy decortication for complete macroscopic resection for pleural mesothelioma has never been evaluated in a randomised trial. The aim of this study was to compare outcomes after extended pleurectomy decortication plus chemotherapy versus chemotherapy alone. METHODS: MARS 2 was a phase 3, national, multicentre, open-label, parallel two-group, pragmatic, superiority randomised controlled trial conducted in the UK. The trial took place across 26 hospitals (21 recruiting only, one surgical only, and four recruiting and surgical). Following two cycles of chemotherapy, eligible participants with pleural mesothelioma were randomly assigned (1:1) to surgery and chemotherapy or chemotherapy alone using a secure web-based system. Individuals aged 16 years or older with resectable pleural mesothelioma and adequate organ and lung function were eligible for inclusion. Participants in the chemotherapy only group received two to four further cycles of chemotherapy, and participants in the surgery and chemotherapy group received pleurectomy decortication or extended pleurectomy decortication, followed by two to four further cycles of chemotherapy. It was not possible to mask allocation because the intervention was a major surgical procedure. The primary outcome was overall survival, defined as time from randomisation to death from any cause. Analyses were done on the intention-to-treat population for all outcomes, unless specified. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02040272, and is closed to new participants. FINDINGS: Between June 19, 2015, and Jan 21, 2021, of 1030 assessed for eligibility, 335 participants were randomly assigned (169 to surgery and chemotherapy, and 166 to chemotherapy alone). 291 (87%) participants were men and 44 (13%) women, and 288 (86%) were diagnosed with epithelioid mesothelioma. At a median follow-up of 22·4 months (IQR 11·3-30·8), median survival was shorter in the surgery and chemotherapy group (19·3 months [IQR 10·0-33·7]) than in the chemotherapy alone group (24·8 months [IQR 12·6-37·4]), and the difference in restricted mean survival time at 2 years was -1·9 months (95% CI -3·4 to -0·3, p=0·019). There were 318 serious adverse events (grade ≥3) in the surgery group and 169 in the chemotherapy group (incidence rate ratio 3·6 [95% CI 2·3 to 5·5], p<0·0001), with increased incidence of cardiac (30 vs 12; 3·01 [1·13 to 8·02]) and respiratory (84 vs 34; 2·62 [1·58 to 4·33]) disorders, infection (124 vs 53; 2·13 [1·36 to 3·33]), and additional surgical or medical procedures (15 vs eight; 2·41 [1·04 to 5·57]) in the surgery group. INTERPRETATION: Extended pleurectomy decortication was associated with worse survival to 2 years, and more serious adverse events for individuals with resectable pleural mesothelioma, compared with chemotherapy alone. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (15/188/31), Cancer Research UK Feasibility Studies Project Grant (A15895).

Smoking, mortality, access to diagnosis, and treatment of lung cancer in Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: Lung cancer (LC) is a relevant public health problem in Brazil and worldwide, given its high incidence and mortality. Thus, the objective of this study is to analyze the distribution of smoking and smoking status according to sociodemographic characteristics and disparities in access, treatment, and mortality due to LC in Brazil in 2013 and 2019. METHOD: Retrospective study of triangulation of national data sources: a) analysis of the distribution of smoking, based on the National Survey of Health (PNS); b) investigation of LC records via Hospital-based Cancer Registry (HCR); and c) distribution of mortality due to LC in the Mortality Information System (SIM). RESULTS: There was a decrease in the percentage of people who had never smoked from 2013 (68.5%) to 2019 (60.2%) and in smoking history (pack-years). This was observed to be greater in men, people of older age groups, and those with less education. Concerning patients registered in the HCR, entry into the healthcare service occurs at the age of 50, and only 19% have never smoked. While smokers in the population are mainly Mixed-race, patients in the HCR are primarily White. As for the initial stage (I and II), it is more common in White people and people who have never smoked. The mortality rate varied from 1.00 for people with higher education to 3.36 for people without education. Furthermore, White people have a mortality rate three times higher than that of Black and mixed-race people. CONCLUSION: This article highlighted relevant sociodemographic disparities in access to LC diagnosis, treatment, and mortality. Therefore, the recommendation is to strengthen the Population-Based Cancer Registry and develop and implement a nationwide LC screening strategy in Brazil since combined prevention and early diagnosis strategies work better in controlling mortality from the disease and continued investment in tobacco prevention and control policies.

Cost-effectiveness of additional serplulimab to chemotherapy in metastatic squamous non-small cell lung cancer patients.

Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of adding serplulimab to chemotherapy for metastatic squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients in a first-line setting from a Chinese perspective. Methods: A three-health state partitioned survival model was constructed to simulate disease development. The clinical data used in the model were derived from the ASTRUM-004 clinical trial. Only direct medical costs were included, and the utilities were derived from published literature. The quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were employed to evaluate health outcomes. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was performed to verify the robustness of the results. Results: Compared with chemotherapy alone, the addition of serplulimab resulted in an increase of 0.63 QALYs with an incremental cost of $5,372.73, leading to an ICER of $8,528.14 per QALY. This ICER was significantly lower than 3 times China's per capita GDP. The one-way sensitivity analysis suggested that the utility of PFS was the most sensitive factor on ICERs, followed by the price of serplulimab. Conclusion: The combination of serplulimab and chemotherapy has been shown to be a cost-effective initial treatment option for patients with metastatic squamous NSCLC with the commonly accepted willingness-to-pay threshold of 3 times the GDP per capita per QALY in China.

Structural Racism as a Contributor to Lung Cancer Incidence and Mortality Rates Among Black Populations in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Although racial disparities in lung cancer incidence and mortality have diminished in recent years, lung cancer remains the second most diagnosed cancer among US Black populations. Many factors contributing to disparities in lung cancer are rooted in structural racism. To quantify this relationship, we examined associations between a multidimensional measure of county-level structural racism and county lung cancer incidence and mortality rates among Black populations, while accounting for county levels of environmental quality. METHODS: We merged 2016-2020 data from the United States Cancer Statistics Data Visualization Tool, a pre-existing county-level structural racism index, the Environmental Protection Agency's 2006-2010 Environmental Quality Index (EQI), 2023 County Health Rankings, and the 2021 United States Census American Community Survey. We conducted multivariable linear regressions to examine associations between county-level structural racism and county-level lung cancer incidence and mortality rates. RESULTS: Among Black males and females, each standard deviation increase in county-level structural racism score was associated with an increase in county-level lung cancer incidence of 6.4 (95% CI: 4.4, 8.5) cases per 100,000 and an increase of 3.3 (95% CI: 2.0, 4.6) lung cancer deaths per 100,000. When examining these associations stratified by sex, larger associations between structural racism and lung cancer rates were observed among Black male populations than among Black females. CONCLUSION: Structural racism contributes to both the number of new lung cancer cases and the number of deaths caused by lung cancer among Black populations. Those aiming to reduce lung cancer cases and deaths should consider addressing racism as a root-cause.

Lung cancer in Argentina: a modelling study of disease and economic burden.

OBJECTIVES: Lung cancer remains a significant global public health challenge and is still one of the leading causes of cancer-related death in Argentina. This study aims to assess the disease and economic burden of lung cancer in the country. STUDY DESIGN: Burden of disease study. METHODS: A mathematical model was developed to estimate the disease burden and direct medical cost attributable to lung cancer. Epidemiological parameters were obtained from local statistics, the Global Cancer Observatory, the Global Burden of Disease databases, and a literature review. Direct medical costs were estimated through micro-costing. Costs were expressed in US dollars (US$), April 2023 (1 US$ = 216.38 Argentine pesos). A second-order Monte Carlo simulation was performed to estimate the uncertainty. RESULTS: Considering approximately 10,000 deaths, 12,000 incident cases, and 14,000 5-year prevalent cases, the economic burden of lung cancer in Argentina in 2023 was estimated to be US$ 556.20 million (396.96-718.20), approximately 1.4% of the total healthcare expenditure for the country. The cost increased with a higher stage of the disease, and the main driver was drug acquisition (80%). A total of 179,046 disability-adjusted life years could be attributable to lung cancer, representing 10% of the total cancer. CONCLUSION: The disease and economic burden of lung cancer in Argentina implies a high cost for the health system and would represent 19% of the previously estimated economic burden for 29 cancers in Argentina.

Global burden of mesothelioma attributable to occupational asbestos exposure in 204 countries and territories: 1990-2019.

Malignant mesothelioma, a rare and aggressive cancer primarily caused by occupational asbestos exposure, has a poor prognosis. This study leverages the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 dataset to analyze the burden of mesothelioma linked to occupational asbestos exposure from 1990 to 2019. The analysis includes the number of mesothelioma deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to occupational asbestos exposure, focusing on trends in age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year rate (ASDR) by year, age, sex, country, region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In 2019, 91.7% of mesothelioma deaths and 85.2% of DALYs were attributable to occupational asbestos exposure, resulting in 26,820 (95% UI 24,312-28,622) deaths and 569,429 (95% UI 509,956-617,484) DALYs. Despite a decline in ASMR and ASDR from 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of deaths and DALYs almost doubled. The United States reported the highest number of mesothelioma deaths, while China had the highest number of DALYs. Age-specific mortality rates and DALYs decreased in the 25-74 age group but increased in the 75+ age group. In conclusion, occupational asbestos exposure remains the primary cause of mesothelioma worldwide, with an increasing number of deaths and DALYs. The highest incidence rates are observed in high-income areas, and rates are rising in low-income areas. It is crucial to raise awareness about the hazards of asbestos to reduce the global burden of mesothelioma linked to occupational exposure.

[An analysis of disease burden of occupational lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2019].

Objective: To analyze the trend of disease burden, including mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) , of occupational lung cancer in China from 1990 to 2019. Methods: In June 2022, the data of occupational lung cancer was obtained from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD) . Excel summarized the data, and the mortality rate, DALYs and age-normalized rate were analyzed. Applying Joinpoint Regression Program software annual Percentage Change (APC) and Average Annual Percentage Change Rate (AAPC) . Results: Age-standardized mortality rates ranged from 2.41 in 1990 to 3.14 per 100 000 in 2019, with gender differences and a positive correlation with age. DALYs increased from 580, 000 person-years in 1990 to 1 509 900 person-years in 2019. The rate of standardized DALYs increased from 63.03 per 100 000 in 1990 to 71.65 per 100 000 in 2019. According to the annual percentage change (APC) analysis by Joinpoint Regression Program software, the age-normalized mortality and DALY rates decreased from 2011 to 2016, and the increasing trend from 2016 to 2019 was significantly lower than that before 2011. And the increase at this stage was not statistically significant. The APCC values of mortality rate, standardized mortality rate, DALYs rate and changed DALYs rate were 3.28, 0.92, 2.64 and 0.44, respectively, and the trend differences were statistically significant. Conclusion: The disease burden of occupational lung cancer is increasing from 1990 to 2019. Lung cancer screening should be carried out among high-risk populations to achieve early diagnosis and treatment.

Federated Learning Survival Model and Potential Radiotherapy Decision Support Impact Assessment for Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Using Real-World Data.

AIMS: The objective of this study was to develop a two-year overall survival model for inoperable stage I-III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients using routine radiation oncology data over a federated (distributed) learning network and evaluate the potential of decision support for curative versus palliative radiotherapy. METHODS: A federated infrastructure of data extraction, de-identification, standardisation, image analysis, and modelling was installed for seven clinics to obtain clinical and imaging features and survival information for patients treated in 2011-2019. A logistic regression model was trained for the 2011-2016 curative patient cohort and validated for the 2017-2019 cohort. Features were selected with univariate and model-based analysis and optimised using bootstrapping. System performance was assessed by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and corresponding area under curve (AUC), C-index, calibration metrics and Kaplan-Meier survival curves, with risk groups defined by model probability quartiles. Decision support was evaluated using a case-control analysis using propensity matching between treatment groups. RESULTS: 1655 patient datasets were included. The overall model AUC was 0.68. Fifty-eight percent of patients treated with palliative radiotherapy had a low-to-moderate risk prediction according to the model, with survival times not significantly different (p = 0.87 and 0.061) from patients treated with curative radiotherapy classified as high-risk by the model. When survival was simulated by risk group and model-indicated treatment, there was an estimated 11% increase in survival rate at two years (p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Federated learning over multiple institution data can be used to develop and validate decision support systems for lung cancer while quantifying the potential impact of their use in practice. This paves the way for personalised medicine, where decisions can be based more closely on individual patient details from routine care.

Predictors of high-intensity care at the end of life among older adults with solid tumors: A population-based study.

INTRODUCTION: High-intensity end-of-life (EoL) care can be burdensome for patients, caregivers, and health systems and does not confer any meaningful clinical benefit. Yet, there are significant knowledge gaps regarding the predictors of high-intensity EoL care. In this study, we identify risk factors associated with high-intensity EoL care among older adults with the four most common malignancies, including breast, prostate, lung, and colorectal cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using SEER-Medicare data, we conducted a retrospective analysis of Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and older who died of breast, prostate, lung, or colorectal cancer between 2011 and 2015. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify clinical, demographic, socioeconomic, and geographic predictors of high-intensity EoL care, which we defined as death in an acute care hospital, receipt of any oral or parenteral chemotherapy within 14 days of death, one or more admissions to the intensive care unit within 30 days of death, two or more emergency department visits within 30 days of death, or two or more inpatient admissions within 30 days of death. RESULTS: Among 59,355 decedents, factors associated with increased likelihood of receiving high-intensity EoL care were increased comorbidity burden (odds ratio [OR]:1.29; 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.28-1.30), female sex (OR:1.05; 95% CI:1.01-1.09), Black race (OR:1.14; 95% CI:1.07-1.23), Other race/ethnicity (OR:1.20; 95% CI:1.10-1.30), stage III disease (OR:1.11; 95% CI:1.05-1.18), living in a county with >1,000,000 people (OR:1.23; 95% CI:1.16-1.31), living in a census tract with 10%-<20% poverty (OR:1.09; 95% CI:1.03-1.16) or 20%-100% poverty (OR:1.12; 95% CI:1.04-1.19), and having state-subsidized Medicare premiums (OR:1.18; 95% CI:1.12-1.24). The risk of high-intensity EoL care was lower among patients who were older (OR:0.98; 95% CI:0.98-0.99), lived in the Midwest (OR:0.69; 95% CI:0.65-0.75), South (OR:0.70; 95% CI:0.65-0.74), or West (OR:0.81; 95% CI:0.77-0.86), lived in mostly rural areas (OR:0.92; 95% CI:0.86-1.00), and had poor performance status (OR:0.26; 95% CI:0.25-0.28). Results were largely consistent across cancer types. DISCUSSION: The risk factors identified in our study can inform the development of new interventions for patients with cancer who are likely to receive high-intensity EoL care. Health systems should consider incorporating these risk factors into decision-support tools to assist clinicians in identifying which patients should be referred to hospice and palliative care.

Evolution of Diagnoses, Survival, and Costs of Oncological Medical Treatment for Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer over 20 Years in Osona, Catalonia.

Non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) has experienced several diagnostic and therapeutic changes over the past two decades. However, there are few studies conducted with real-world data regarding the evolution of the cost of these new drugs and the corresponding changes in the survival of these patients. We collected data on patients diagnosed with NSCLC from the tumor registry of the University Hospital of Vic from 2002 to 2021. We analyzed the epidemiological and pathological characteristics of these patients, the diverse oncological treatments administered, and the survival outcomes extending at least 18 months post-diagnosis. We also collected data on pharmacological costs, aligning them with the treatments received by each patient to determine the cost associated with individualized treatments. Our study included 905 patients diagnosed with NSCLC. We observed a dynamic shift in histopathological subtypes from squamous carcinoma in the initial years to adenocarcinoma. Regarding the treatment approach, the use of chemotherapy declined over time, replaced by immunotherapy, while molecular therapy showed relative stability. An increase in survival at 18 months after diagnosis was observed in patients with advanced stages over the most recent years of this study, along with the advent of immunotherapy. Mean treatment costs per patient ranged from EUR 1413.16 to EUR 22,029.87 and reached a peak of EUR 48,283.80 in 2017 after the advent of immunotherapy. This retrospective study, based on real-world data, documents the evolution of pathological characteristics, survival rates, and medical treatment costs for NSCLC over the last two decades. After the introduction of immunotherapy, patients in advanced stages showed an improvement in survival at 18 months, coupled with an increase in treatment costs.

Augmenting external control arms using Bayesian borrowing: a case study in first-line non-small cell lung cancer.

Aim: This study aimed to improve comparative effectiveness estimates and discuss challenges encountered through the application of Bayesian borrowing (BB) methods to augment an external control arm (ECA) constructed from real-world data (RWD) using historical clinical trial data in first-line non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Materials & methods: An ECA for a randomized controlled trial (RCT) in first-line NSCLC was constructed using ConcertAI Patient360™ to assess chemotherapy with or without cetuximab, in the bevacizumab-inappropriate subpopulation. Cardinality matching was used to match patient characteristics between the treatment arm (cetuximab + chemotherapy) and ECA. Overall survival (OS) was assessed as the primary outcome using Cox proportional hazards (PH). BB was conducted using a static power prior under a Weibull PH parameterization with borrowing weights from 0.0 to 1.0 and augmentation of the ECA from a historical control trial. Results: The constructed ECA yielded a higher overall survival (OS) hazard ratio (HR) (HR = 1.53; 95% CI: 1.21-1.93) than observed in the matched population of the RCT (HR = 0.91; 95% CI: 0.73-1.13). The OS HR decreased through the incorporation of BB (HR = 1.30; 95% CI: 1.08-1.54, borrowing weight = 1.0). BB was applied to augment the RCT control arm via a historical control which improved the precision of the observed HR estimate (1.03; 95% CI: 0.86-1.22, borrowing weight = 1.0), in comparison to the matched population of the RCT alone. Conclusion: In this study, the RWD ECA was unable to successfully replicate the OS estimates from the matched population of the selected RCT. The inability to replicate could be due to unmeasured confounding and variations in time-periods, follow-up and subsequent therapy. Despite these findings, we demonstrate how BB can improve precision of comparative effectiveness estimates, potentially aid as a bias assessment tool and mitigate challenges of traditional methods when appropriate external data sources are available.

Osimertinib in Patients With Treatment-Naive EGFR-Mutant Non-small Cell Lung Cancer: Overall Survival, Post-progression Management and Budget Impact Analysis in Real-World.

INTRODUCTION: The observational multicenter prospective FLOWER study (NCT04965701) confirmed effectiveness and safety of osimertinib in the real-world (RW) management of untreated EGFR-mutant advanced non-small cell lung cancer (aNSCLC) patients. METHODS: Herein, we report updated survival data, post-progression management, cost/effectiveness and budget impact (BI) of osimertinib compared with a RW population receiving gefitinib or erlotinib. RESULTS: Overall, 189 Caucasian patients receiving first-line osimertinib were included. After a follow-up of 20.7 months, 74(39.2%) patients discontinued osimertinib, median time-to-treatment discontinuation (mTTD) was 27.9 months, overall survival 36.8 months. At progression, tissue biopsy was performed in 29 (56.9%), liquid biopsy in 15 (29.4%) and both in 7 (13.7%) cases. The most frequent resistant mechanism was MET amplification (N = 14, 29.8%). At data cutoff, 13 (6.9%) patients were continuing osimertinib beyond progression; 52 (67.5%) received second-line treatment; no further treatments were administered in 25 (32.5%) cases. Thirty-three (63.4%) patients received chemotherapy, 12(23.1%) TKIs combination. Cost-effectiveness analysis showed a total cost per patient based on RW mTTD of 98,957.34€, 21,726.28€ and 19,637.83€ for osimertinib, erlotinib and gefitinib, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER)/month for osimertinib was 359,806.0€/life-year-gained (LYG) and 197,789.77€/LYG compared to erlotinib and gefitinib. For osimertinib, the BI-gap between RW-TTD and theoretical-TTD was 16,501.0€ per patient. CONCLUSIONS: This updated analysis confirms the effectiveness of osimertinib in RW. Although the ICER of osimertinib seems not cost-effective, additional costs for the management of disease progression to old generation TKIs were not considered in this study. The BI-gap suggests RW mTTD as a more reliable measure for expense estimation.

Global Burden of Lung Cancer Attributable to Household Fine Particulate Matter Pollution in 204 Countries and Territories, 1990 to 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Household particulate matter (PM) air pollution is substantially associated with lung cancer. Nevertheless, the global burden of lung cancer attributable to household PM2.5 is still uncertain. METHODS: In this study, data from the Global Burden and Disease Study 2019 are used to thoroughly assess the burden of lung cancer associated with household PM2.5. RESULTS: The number of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to household PM2.5 was found to be 0.08 million and 1.94 million, respectively in 2019. Nevertheless, the burden of lung cancer attributable to household PM2.5 decreased from 1990 to 2019. At the sociodemographic index (SDI) district level, the middle SDI region had the most number of lung cancer deaths and DALYs attributable to household PM2.5. Moreover, the burden of lung cancer was mainly distributed in low-SDI regions, such as Sub-Saharan Africa. Conversely, in high-SDI regions, the age-standardized mortality rate and age-standardized DALY rate of lung cancer attributable to household PM2.5 exhibit the most rapid declines. The burden of lung cancer attributable to household PM2.5 is heavier for men than for women. The sex difference is more obvious in the elderly. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of lung cancer attributable to household PM2.5 has exhibited a declining trend from 1990 to 2019 owing to a concurrent decline in household PM2.5 exposure.

Excess morbidity and mortality associated with underuse of estrogen replacement therapy in premenopausal women who undergo surgical menopause.

BACKGROUND: Contrary to clinical guidelines, there has been a decrease over time in estrogen therapy use in premenopausal women undergoing bilateral oophorectomy for benign indications. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate the excess morbidity and mortality associated with current patterns of estrogen therapy use in women who undergo bilateral oophorectomy with hysterectomy for benign indications. STUDY DESIGN: We developed 2 Bayesian sampling Markov state-transition models to estimate the excess disease incidence (incidence model) and mortality (mortality model). The starting cohort for both models were women who had undergone bilateral oophorectomy with hysterectomy for benign indications at the age of 45 to 49 years. The models tracked outcomes in 5-year intervals for 25 years. The incidence model estimated excess incidence of breast cancer, lung cancer, colorectal cancer, coronary heart disease, and stroke, whereas the mortality model estimated excess mortality due to breast cancer, lung cancer, coronary heart disease, and all-other-cause mortality. The models compared current rates of estrogen therapy use with optimal (100%) use and calculated the mean difference in each simulated outcome to determine excess disease incidence and death. RESULTS: By 25 years after bilateral oophorectomy with hysterectomy, there were an estimated 94 (95% confidence interval, -158 to -23) fewer colorectal cancer cases, 658 (95% confidence interval, 339-1025) more coronary heart disease cases, and 881 (95% confidence interval, 402-1483) more stroke cases. By 25 years after bilateral oophorectomy with hysterectomy, there were an estimated 189 (95% confidence interval, 59-387) more breast cancer deaths, 380 (95% confidence interval, 114-792) more coronary heart disease deaths, and 759 (95% confidence interval, 307-1527) more all-other-cause deaths. In sensitivity analyses where we defined estrogen therapy use as a duration of >2 years of use, these differences increased >2-fold. CONCLUSION: Underuse of estrogen therapy in premenopausal women who undergo oophorectomy is associated with substantial excess morbidity and mortality.

What's Next for Sotorasib in NSCLC?

The CodeBreaK 200 trial showed that sotorasib led to a 34% decrease in relative risk of disease progression or death compared with docetaxel but yielded no improvement in overall survival. Despite the KRAS inhibitor's high cost, less toxicity likely tips the balance in its favor. Subgroup analyses and combination trials are underway to optimize treatment with sotorasib and other KRAS inhibitors.

Long-term exposure to elemental components of fine particulate matter and all-natural and cause-specific mortality in a Danish nationwide administrative cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a well-recognized risk factor for premature death. However, evidence on which PM2.5 components are most relevant is unclear. METHODS: We evaluated the associations between mortality and long-term exposure to eight PM2.5 elemental components [copper (Cu), iron (Fe), zinc (Zn), sulfur (S), nickel (Ni), vanadium (V), silicon (Si), and potassium (K)]. Studied outcomes included death from diabetes, chronic kidney disease (CKD), dementia, and psychiatric disorders as well as all-natural causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory diseases (RD), and lung cancer. We followed all residents in Denmark (aged ≥30 years) from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017. We used European-wide land-use regression models at a 100 × 100 m scale to estimate the residential annual mean levels of exposure to PM2.5 components. The models were developed with supervised linear regression (SLR) and random forest (RF). The associations were evaluated by Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for individual- and area-level socioeconomic factors and total PM2.5 mass. RESULTS: Of 3,081,244 individuals, we observed 803,373 death from natural causes during follow-up. We found significant positive associations between all-natural mortality with Si and K from both exposure modeling approaches (hazard ratios; 95% confidence intervals per interquartile range increase): SLR-Si (1.04; 1.03-1.05), RF-Si (1.01; 1.00-1.02), SLR-K (1.03; 1.02-1.04), and RF-K (1.06; 1.05-1.07). Strong associations of K and Si were detected with most causes of mortality except CKD and K, and diabetes and Si (the strongest associations for psychiatric disorders mortality). In addition, Fe was relevant for mortality from RD, lung cancer, CKD, and psychiatric disorders; Zn with mortality from CKD, RD, and lung cancer, and; Ni and V with lung cancer mortality. CONCLUSIONS: We present novel results of the relevance of different PM2.5 components for different causes of death, with K and Si seeming to be most consistently associated with mortality in Denmark.