Monitoring multistage healthcare processes using state space models and a machine learning based framework.

Monitoring healthcare processes, such as surgical outcomes, with a keen focus on detecting changes and unnatural conditions at an early stage is crucial for healthcare professionals and administrators. In line with this goal, control charts, which are the most popular tool in the field of Statistical Process Monitoring, are widely employed to monitor therapeutic processes. Healthcare processes are often characterized by a multistage structure in which several components, states or stages form the final products or outcomes. In such complex scenarios, Multistage Process Monitoring (MPM) techniques become invaluable for monitoring distinct states of the process over time. However, the healthcare sector has seen limited studies employing MPM. This study aims to fill this gap by developing an MPM control chart tailored for healthcare data to promote early detection, confirmation, and patient safety. As it is important to detect unnatural conditions in healthcare processes at an early stage, the statistical control charts are combined with machine learning techniques (i.e., we deal with Intelligent Control Charting, ICC) to enhance detection ability. Through Monte Carlo simulations, our method demonstrates better performance compared to its statistical counterparts. To underline the practical application of the proposed ICC framework, real data from a two-stage thyroid cancer surgery is utilized. This real-world case serves as a compelling illustration of the effectiveness of the developed MPM control chart in a healthcare setting.

Predictors of recurrence after total thyroidectomy in 1,611 patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma: postoperative stimulated serum thyroglobulin and ATA initial and dynamic risk assessment.

Objective: Despite a favorable prognosis, some patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) develop recurrence. The objective of this study was to examine the impact of the combination of initial American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk stratification with serum level of postoperative stimulated thyroglobulin (s-Tg) in predicting recurrence in patients with PTC and compare the results with an assessment of response to initial therapy (dynamic risk stratification). Subjects and methods: We retrospectively analyzed 1,611 patients who had undergone total thyroidectomy for PTC, followed in most cases (87.3%) by radioactive iodine (RAI) administration. Clinicopathological features and s-Tg levels obtained 3 months postoperatively were evaluated. The patients were stratified according to ATA risk categories. Nonstimulated thyroglobulin levels and imaging studies obtained during the first year of follow-up were used to restage the patients based on response to initial therapy. Results: After a mean follow-up of 61.5 months (range 12-246 months), tumor recurrence was diagnosed in 99 (6.1%) patients. According to ATA risk, recurrence was identified in 2.3% of the low-risk, 9% of the intermediate-risk, and 25% of the high-risk patients (p < 0.001). Using a receiver operating characteristic curve approach, a postoperative s-Tg level of 10 ng/mL emerged as the ideal cutoff value, with positive and negative predictive values of 24% and 97.8%, respectively (p < 0.001). Patients with low to intermediate ATA risk with postoperative s-Tg levels < 10 ng/mL and excellent response to treatment had a very low recurrence rate (<0.8%). In contrast, higher recurrence rates were observed in intermediate-riskto high-risk patients with postoperative s-Tg > 10 ng/mL and indeterminate response (25%) and in those with incomplete response regardless of ATA category or postoperative s-Tg value (38.5-87.5%). Using proportion of variance explained (PVE), the predicted recurrence using the ATA initial risk assessment alone was 12.7% and increased to 29.9% when postoperative s-Tg was added to the logistic regression model and 49.1% with dynamic risk stratification. Conclusion: The combination of ATA staging system and postoperative s-Tg can better predict the risk of PTC recurrence. Initial risk estimates can be refined based ondynamic risk assessment following response to therapy, thus providing a useful guide for follow-up recommendations.

Advances in the assessment of cosmetic outcomes, sensory alteration in surgical areas, and health-related quality of life of endoscopic thyroidectomy.

BACKGROUND: Endoscopic thyroidectomy has been preliminarily proven effective and safe for thyroid diseases. The cosmetic outcomes and life quality are critical contents of postoperative assessment. This review will primarily focus on the assessment methods and results related to cosmetic outcomes, sensory alteration of surgical area, and quality of life following endoscopic thyroidectomy. METHODS: A comprehensive search of published articles within the last decade was conducted using the terms "endoscopic/robotic thyroidectomy," "patient satisfaction scores," "questionnaire," "quality of life," and "cosmetic" in PubMed. RESULTS: Assessment methods for postoperative cosmetic satisfaction and sensory alterations encompassed verbal/visual analog scales, scar evaluations, Semmes-Weinstein monofilament tests, and more. The evaluation of postoperative quality of life in endoscopic thyroidectomy involved tools such as SF-36, SF-12, thyroid-specific questionnaires, thyroid cancer-specific quality of life questionnaires (THYCA-QOL), as well as assessments related to voice and swallow function. The cosmetic results of endoscopic thyroidectomy generally surpassed those of open thyroidectomy, while the quality of life in endoscopic procedures was either superior or equivalent to that in open thyroidectomy, especially with respect to general health, role emotion, and vitality. CONCLUSIONS: Assessments of cosmetic outcomes and sensory alterations following endoscopic thyroidectomy predominantly relied on patients' subjective feelings. The objective and subjective perspectives of scar assessments remain underutilized. In addition, postoperative laryngoscopy and voice function assessments in endoscopic thyroidectomy procedures require more attention.

US-Guided Hydrodissection and a Low-Cost Indigenous Retractor Facilitate Endoscopic Thyroid Surgery.

Hydrodissection of plane between thyroid and strap muscles and retraction of strap muscles using a low-cost indigenously made retractor are effective in overcoming technical difficulties in transoral endoscopic thyroid surgery. Laryngoscope, 134:993-994, 2024.

Value of repeated US-guided fine-needle aspiration (US-FNAB) in the follow-up of benign thyroid nodules: a real-life study based on the MoCyThy (Modena's Cytology of the Thyroid) DATABASE with a revision of the literature.

PURPOSE: The utility of repeating ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration (US-FNAB) in the follow-up of benign (THY2) thyroid nodules is still debated. The aim of this study was to retrospectively investigate the diagnostic value of re-biopsy of thyroid nodules following an initially benign result. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed US-FNABs performed at the Unit of Endocrinology of Modena from 2006 to 2009. The firstly benign cytological result was compared with the cytological results of subsequent US-FNABs (2nd and/or 3rd) executed on the same nodule. RESULTS: Among 10449 US-FNABs, 6270 (60%) received a THY2 cytological categorization. Of them, 278 (4.43%) underwent a subsequent US-FNAB: 86.7% maintained the same cytology, 32 (11.5%) changed to THY3 (indeterminate) and 5 (1.8%) to THY4 (suspicious of malignancy). Among the 24 nodules addressed to surgery, 9 (37%) were histologically malignant, with an overall miss rate of 3.2%. Male patients had higher risk of discordant results at subsequent US-FNAB (p = 0.005, OR:3.59, 95%CI:1.453-7.769) while dimensional increase above 5 mm was predictive of concordant benign cytology (p = 0.036, OR:0.249, 95%CI:0.068-0.915). Age, suspicious US characteristics, and distance between US-FNABs resulted not predictive. CONCLUSIONS: Re-biopsy of benign nodules confirmed the benign nature in most cases. In case of discordant cytology, relocation in indeterminate category was the most common. The histological diagnosis of cancer occurred in one quarter of nodules surgically removed, with a low overall clinically significant miss rate. Thus, a small percentage of false negatives exists; males and subjects with US suspicious nodules should be carefully followed-up, considering case by case re-biopsy possibility.

Age-stratified comparison of active surveillance versus radiofrequency ablation for papillary thyroid microcarcinoma using decision analysis.

BACKGROUND: Papillary thyroid microcarcinomas may be treated with radiofrequency ablation, active surveillance, or surgery. The objective of this study was to use mathematical modeling to compare treatment alternatives for papillary thyroid microcarcinomas among those who decline surgery. We hypothesized that radiofrequency ablation would outperform active surveillance in avoiding progression and surgery but that the effect size would be small for older patients. METHODS: We engaged stakeholders to identify meaningful long-term endpoints for papillary thyroid microcarcinoma treatment-(1) cancer progression/surgery, (2) need for thyroid replacement therapy, and (3) permanent treatment complication. A Markov decision analysis model was created to compare the probability of these endpoints after radiofrequency ablation or active surveillance for papillary thyroid microcarcinomas and overall cost. Transition probabilities were extracted from published literature. Model outcomes were estimated to have a 10-year time horizon. RESULTS: The primary outcome yielded a number needed to treat of 18.1 for the avoidance of progression and 27.4 for the avoidance of lifelong thyroid replacement therapy for radiofrequency ablation compared to active surveillance. However, as patient age increased, the number needed to treat to avoid progression increased from 5.2 (age 20-29) to 39.1 (age 60+). The number needed to treat to avoid lifelong thyroid replacement therapy increased with age from 7.8 (age 20-29) to 59.3 (age 60+). The average 10-year cost/treatment for active surveillance and radiofrequency ablation were $6,400 and $11,700, respectively, translating to a cost per progression-avoided of $106,500. CONCLUSION: As an alternative to active surveillance, radiofrequency ablation may have a greater therapeutic impact in younger patients. However, routine implementation may be cost-prohibitive for most patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinomas.

Assessment for bone health in patients with differentiated thyroid carcinoma after postoperative thyroid-stimulating hormone suppression therapy: a new fracture risk assessment algorithm.

Purpose: The fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) is used to assess the 10-year risk of major site and hip fractures; however, whether this tool can be applied to patients receiving levothyroxine-based thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) suppressive therapy for postoperative differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients is yet to be clarified. Methods and design: A total of 64 patients with DTC following thyroidectomy and oral levothyroxine for TSH suppression therapy and 30 gender- and age-matched controls were collected. The fracture risk was compared between the affected groups with different TSH levels. FRAX was used to calculate the fracture risk with and without bone mineral density (BMD). The TSH level was converted to an age-weighted score to estimate the fracture risk of postoperatively differentiated thyroid cancer patients. The sensitivity, specificity, and area under the AUC curve of the traditional FRAX and the new algorithm for osteoporosis diagnosis were compared. The dual-energy X-ray bone mineral density measurement T score was used as the gold standard to diagnose osteoporosis. Results: There were 24 patients in the T ≥ -1-2.5 group, 23 in the -2.5 < T < -1 group, and 17 in the T ≤ -2.5 group. The T score of BMD in the disease group was significantly lower than that in the control group (p < 0.05). The risk of MOF and hip fracture without a T score were significantly different under various TSH levels (p < 0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) of FRAX without BMD for predicting major osteoporotic fractures (PMOF) and major hip fractures (PHF) was 0.694 and 0.683, respectively. The cutoff values were 2.15% and 0.25%, respectively. The AUC of FRAX with BMD for PMOF and PHF was 0.976 and 0.989, respectively, and the cutoff values were 4.15% and 1.1%, respectively. The AUC of FRAX without BMD for PMOF and PHF was 0.708 and 0.72, respectively, and the cutoff values were 5.5% and 1.55%, respectively. Conclusions: FRAX is suitable for postoperative DTC patients after TSH suppressive therapy. In the absence of BMD, TSH weighted by age can improve the specificity of FRAX in the diagnosis of osteoporosis in this population.

Clinical features and imaging examination assessment of cervical lymph nodes for thyroid carcinoma.

BACKGROUNDS: The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between clinical characteristics and cervical lymph node metastasis (LNM) in patients with thyroid carcinoma, as well as estimate the preoperative diagnosis values of ultrasound (US) and contrast enhanced computed tomography (CECT) examinations on the neck for detection of cervical LNM in thyroid carcinoma. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 3 026 patients with surgically proven thyroid carcinoma was conducted. Patients' clinical characteristics, including gender, age, tumor size, bilateral lesions, multifocality, adenomatous nodules, Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT), and extrathyroidal extension, were collected to explore their association with cervical LNM in thyroid carcinoma. Preoperative assessments for central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) and lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) were conducted through US and CECT. The diagnostic value of US, CECT and US combined with CECT for detection of LNM located in various cervical compartments was estimated based on the pathological results. RESULTS: The risk of cervical LNM was higher in thyroid cancer patients who were male, age < 55 years old, tumor size > 10 mm, bilateral lesions, and extrathyroidal extension, while multifocality, adenomatous nodules and HT had no significant effect on LNM. US, CECT and US combined with CECT all had a higher sensitivity to LLNM (93.1%, 57.8%, 95.4%) than to CLNM (32.3%, 29.0%, 43.4%). US and CECT had a high specificity to both CLNM and LLNM (94.3-97.8%). CONCLUSION: Preoperative clinical characteristics and imaging examinations on patients with thyroid carcinoma are crucial to the evaluation of cervical lymph nodes and conducive to individualizing surgical treatments by clinicians. US combined with CECT are superior to single US or CECT alone in detection of CLNM and LLNM.

Thyroglobulin as a Rapid and Cost-Effective Biomarker for Diagnosis of Thyroid Carcinoma Brain Metastasis: A Case Report of a Patient with Metastatic Hurthle Cell Thyroid Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND Brain metastasis of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) is rare. Treatment of these patients is challenging due to the lack of specific guidelines. Early diagnosis is accompanied by immediate treatment and less morbidity. Total resection of brain lesions may be unattainable when they include infiltration of eloquent areas. This report is of an 81-year-old man who had undergone total thyroidectomy for goiter in the past and presented with metastatic papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) to the neck after a gap of 16 years. After two years, the patient developed a solitary cystic brain PTC metastasis associated with raised thyroglobulin (Tg) inside the cystic lesion aspirated during brain surgery. CASE REPORT An 81-year-old male patient was admitted for a space-occupying brain lesion in the right frontal lobe. The patient's history included metastatic disease of PTC to the neck with cervical lymph node metastasis and local recurrence after surgery and radioactive iodine-131 treatment. The patient underwent craniotomy and removal of the lesion. The aspirated fluid was sent for cytological examination and measurement of Tg levels, which were interestingly high. Pathology of the brain lesion revealed infiltration of brain parenchyma from a metastatic lesion characterized by eosinophilic cells with irregular contours forming grooves, resulting in cytoplasmic pseudo-inclusions, an oncotic variant of PTC. CONCLUSIONS This report has shown that residual tissue may be present following total thyroidectomy and may be the origin of PTC with metastasis to the brain. The patient in this study suffered from a brain lesion that could be excised. However, aspiration of cystic compartments could provide a rapid diagnosis in patients with non-removable brain lesions.

Assessment of three different radioiodine doses for ablation therapy of thyroid remnants: Efficiency, complications and patient comfort.

I-131 radioiodine (RAI) ablation removes postoperative residual tissue and facilitates follow-up in low- and intermediate-risk differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). Although low doses have been reported to be as effective as higher doses for ablation, the doses administered still vary depending on the patient and the practitioner. We aimed to evaluate the ablation efficiency, complications, and length of stay (LOS) of patients with DTC treated with 3 different doses for ablation. Patients with DTC who received RAI therapy were retrospectively reviewed. One hundred thirty patients with low-intermediate-risk, according to American Thyroid Association classification, without known lymph nodes or distant metastases were included. Patients were divided into 3 groups as 30 to 50 mCi, 75 mCi, and 100 mCi. Residue thyroid and salivary glands were evaluated from 9 to 12 months post-RAI I-131 scans. No significant difference was found between groups regarding ablation success (P = .795). In multivariable analyses, pretreatment thyroglobulin (hazard ratio = 0.8, 95% confidence interval 0.601-0.952, P = .017) and anti- thyroglobulin antibody (hazard ratio = 1.0, 95% confidence interval 0.967-0.998, P = .024) were 2 independent predictors of ablation success. The mean LOS was 2.1 ±â€…0.3, 2.6 ±â€…0.6, and 2.9 ±â€…0.4 days, respectively, (P = .001). LOS rates of ≥ 3 days were 13.2%, 54.3%, and 84.8%, respectively. Mild decreases in hemoglobin, white blood cell (WBC), and platelet counts were observed in all groups after 6 weeks without any clinically significant findings. A lower rate of change in WBC counts was observed in the 30 to 50 mCi group compared to others. There was no dose-dependent difference regarding the early complaints questioned. Ablation with 30 to 50 mCi provides benefits such as shorter LOS, better patient comfort, less salivary gland dysfunction, and less WBC suppression, thus reducing costs without decreasing efficacy.

Comprehensive analysis of clinicopathologic and sonographic features in thyroid cancer with skip lymph node metastasis: establish and assessment of a prediction nomogram.

Lateral Lymph Node Metastasis (LLNM) is common in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma (PTC) and is associated with a poor prognosis. LLNM without central lymph node metastasis as skip metastasis is not common. We aimed to investigate clinicopathologic and sonographic risk factors for skip metastasis in PTC patients, and to establish a nomogram for predicting the possibility of skip metastasis in order to determine the therapeutic strategy. We retrospectively reviewed the data of 1037 PTC patients who underwent surgery from 2016 to 2020 at a single institution. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the clinicopathologic and preoperative sonographic risk factors of skip metastasis. A nomogram including the risk factors for predicting skip metastasis was further developed and validated. The incidence of skip metastasis was 10.7%. The univariate and multivariate analyses suggested that gender (p= 0.001), tumor location (p= 0.000), extrathyroidal extension (p= 0.000), and calcification (p= 0.000) were independent risk factors. For papillary thyroid microcarcinoma, tumor location (p= 0.000) and calcification (p= 0.001) were independent risk factors. A nomogram according to the clinicopathologic and sonographic predictors was developed. The receiver operating characteristic curve indicated that AUC was 0.824 and had an excellent consistency. The calibration plot analysis showed a good performance and clinical utility of the model. Decision curve analysis revealed it was clinically useful. A nomogram for predicting the probability of skip metastasis was developed, which exhibited a favorable predictive value and consistency. For the female PTC patient, tumor located at the upper pole is more likely to have skip metastasis. Surgeons and sonographers should pay close attention to the patients who have the risk factors. Evidence level: This article's evidence level is 3. Level 3 evidence is derived from non-randomized, controlled clinical trials. In this study, patients who receive an intervention are compared to a control group. Authors may detect a statistically significant and clinically relevant outcome.

Cost-Effectiveness of Active Surveillance Compared to Early Surgery of Small Papillary Thyroid Cancer: A Retrospective Study on a Korean Population.

BACKGROUND: Recently, active surveillance (AS) has been introduced as an alternative to early surgery (ES) for the management of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC), because of its indolent features and low mortality. However, its cost effects have not been determined and the findings of current studies differ, according to each country's medical system. METHODS: A Markov model was constructed to compare the cost-effectiveness of AS and ES, based on a reference case of a 40-year-old patient diagnosed with PTMC. Costs and transition probabilities were derived from previous clinical studies in Korean populations, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and net monetary benefit (NMB) were calculated. The willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was set at USD 100,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to address the uncertainties in the model's variables. RESULTS: From the base scenario, the cumulative costs and effectiveness were both higher in ES than AS. The ICER for ES, compared with AS, was USD 6,619.86/QALY, lower than the set WTP. The NMB difference between AS and ES increased across the stages (USD 5,980 at the first stage and USD 159,667 at the last stage). The ICER increased along with decreasing age and increasing cost of surgery. The higher the ES utility score and the lower that of AS, the more cost-effective ES, with WTP set at USD 30,000. CONCLUSION: In the current Korean medical system, ES is more cost-effective than AS. ES is more cost-effective as it is diagnosed at young age and followed-up for a long time.

Lymphangiography and lymphatic embolisation for the treatment of chyle leaks after neck surgery: assessment of lymphangiography findings and embolisation techniques.

OBJECTIVE: To assess lymphangiography findings and outcome of lymphatic embolisation to manage chyle leak after neck surgery. METHODS: Consecutive cases of lymphangiography performed between April 2018 and May 2022 for management of chyle leaks related to neck surgery were retrospectively reviewed. Lymphangiography findings, techniques, and outcomes were analysed. RESULTS: Eight patients (mean age: 46.5 years) were included. Six patients had undergone radical neck dissection for thyroid cancer, and two had undergone lymph node excision. Clinical presentations were: chyle drainage through Jackson Pratt catheters in five patients, lymphorrhea through surgical wounds in two, and enlarging lymphocele in one. Lymphangiography techniques included: inguinal lymphangiography in four patients, retrograde lymphangiography in three, and transcervical lymphangiography in one. Lymphangiography revealed leaks in the terminal thoracic duct in two patients, bronchomediastinal trunk in two, jugular trunk in three, and superficial neck channels in one. Embolisation techniques included: non-selective embolisation of terminal thoracic duct (n = 2), selective embolisation of the jugular trunk (n = 3), selective embolisation of the bronchomediastinal trunk (n = 2), and intranodal glue embolisation of superficial neck channels (n = 1). One patient underwent a repeat procedure. Chyle leak resolved in all patients over a mean of 4.6 days. No complication was encountered. CONCLUSION: Lymphatic embolisation seems to be effective and safe in managing chyle leaks after neck surgery. Lymphangiography allowed for the categorisation of chyle leaks according to their location. Post-embolisation patency of the thoracic duct may be preserved in chyle leaks that do not directly involve the thoracic duct. ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE: Lymphatic embolisation is safe and effective in managing chyle leaks after neck surgery. On lymphangiography, the location of contrast media extravasation may not be consistent. The technique for embolisation should be based on the location of the leak. Post-embolisation patency of the thoracic duct may be preserved in chyle leaks that do not directly involve the thoracic duct.

Postoperative thyroglobulin as a yard-stick for radioiodine therapy: decision tree analysis in a European multicenter series of 1317 patients with differentiated thyroid cancer.

PURPOSE: An accurate postoperative assessment is pivotal to inform postoperative 131I treatment in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). We developed a predictive model for post-treatment whole-body scintigraphy (PT-WBS) results (as a proxy for persistent disease) by adopting a decision tree model. METHODS: Age, sex, histology, T stage, N stage, risk classes, remnant estimation, TSH, and Tg were identified as potential predictors and were put into regression algorithm (conditional inference tree, ctree) to develop a risk stratification model for predicting the presence of metastases in PT-WBS. RESULTS: The lymph node (N) stage identified a partition of the population into two subgroups (N-positive vs N-negative). Among N-positive patients, a Tg value > 23.3 ng/mL conferred a 83% probability to have metastatic disease compared to those with lower Tg values. Additionally, N-negative patients were further substratified in three subgroups with different risk rates according to their Tg values. The model remained stable and reproducible in the iterative process of cross validation. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a simple and robust decision tree model able to provide reliable informations on the probability of persistent/metastatic DTC after surgery. These information may guide post-surgery 131I administration and select patients requiring curative rather than adjuvant 131I therapy schedules.

Risk assessment of cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules with integrated molecular testing and repeat biopsy: a surgical decision-oriented tool.

BACKGROUND: The preoperative diagnosis of cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules (ITNs) is very challenging. In this study, we aim to provide an integrated risk assessment for thyroid nodules with indeterminate cytology to guide surgical decision-making, which includes results of blood tests, molecular tests, and repeat fine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB). METHODS: The study retrospectively included 265 ITNs between June 2019 and April 2022. According to our integrated risk assessment process that starts with blood testing, followed by supplementary DNA mutation detection on the first FNAB, and finally repeat FNAB, we divided the ITNs into high-risk and low-risk groups. Performance was evaluated with sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and the consistency between the risk evaluation and histological results. RESULTS: Of the 265 ITNs, 87 were included in the risk assessment process. The risk assessment had a sensitivity of 84.1%, specificity of 83.3%, PPV of 95.1%, NPV of 57.7%, and AUC of 0.837. The nodules with consistent results between the risk groups and histological outcomes, which included malignant cases in the high-risk group and benign cases in the low-risk group, accounted for 83.9% of all risk-assessed nodules. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that the integrated risk assessment might provide proper information for surgical decision-making in patients with ITNs.

Simulated data-driven hospital selection for surgical treatment of well-differentiated thyroid cancer in older adults.

BACKGROUND: Thyroid surgery at high-quality hospitals is associated with fewer complications. We evaluated the impact of referring older adults with thyroid cancer to higher-performing local hospitals. METHODS: We performed a simulation study of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare patients, aged ≥66 years, who underwent a thyroidectomy for well-differentiated thyroid cancer (2013-2017). An 80% sample was used to calculate each hospital's risk-standardized 30-day serious adverse event rate, dividing hospitals into quartiles by performance. Hospitals located ≤30 miles of the remaining 20% of patients were compared, and 30-day serious adverse event rates and costs were simulated as if patients were treated at higher-quality hospitals using logistic regression with each alternative hospital's fixed-effect. RESULTS: We identified 8,946 patients who underwent thyroid resection at 843 hospitals. Average risk-adjusted serious adverse event rates ranged from 13.9% to 52.9% between quartile 1 and 4 hospitals (P < .001). We identified higher-quality hospitals for 43.7% of patients. Simulating care at the best local hospital reduced predicted serious adverse event rates from 25.6% (95% confidence interval, 24.7-26.4) to 16.2% (95% confidence interval, 15.5-16.8; P < .001), while modestly lowering average costs from $12,883 (95% confidence interval, 12,500-13,267) to $12,679 (95% confidence interval, 12,304-13,056; P = .029). CONCLUSION: Simulated care at higher-performing hospitals decreased serious adverse event rates after thyroid resection. Optimizing hospital selection may reduce postoperative morbidity without compromising preferences for local treatment.