Pandemic buying: Testing a psychological model of over-purchasing and panic buying using data from the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The over-purchasing and hoarding of necessities is a common response to crises, especially in developed economies where there is normally an expectation of plentiful supply. This behaviour was observed internationally during the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic. In the absence of actual scarcity, this behaviour can be described as 'panic buying' and can lead to temporary shortages. However, there have been few psychological studies of this phenomenon. Here we propose a psychological model of over-purchasing informed by animal foraging theory and make predictions about variables that predict over-purchasing by either exacerbating or mitigating the anticipation of future scarcity. These variables include additional scarcity cues (e.g. loss of income), distress (e.g. depression), psychological factors that draw attention to these cues (e.g. neuroticism) or to reassuring messages (eg. analytical reasoning) or which facilitate over-purchasing (e.g. income). We tested our model in parallel nationally representative internet surveys of the adult general population conducted in the United Kingdom (UK: N = 2025) and the Republic of Ireland (RoI: N = 1041) 52 and 31 days after the first confirmed cases of COVID-19 were detected in the UK and RoI, respectively. About three quarters of participants reported minimal over-purchasing. There was more over-purchasing in RoI vs UK and in urban vs rural areas. When over-purchasing occurred, in both countries it was observed across a wide range of product categories and was accounted for by a single latent factor. It was positively predicted by household income, the presence of children at home, psychological distress (depression, death anxiety), threat sensitivity (right wing authoritarianism) and mistrust of others (paranoia). Analytic reasoning ability had an inhibitory effect. Predictor variables accounted for 36% and 34% of the variance in over-purchasing in the UK and RoI respectively. With some caveats, the data supported our model and points to strategies to mitigate over-purchasing in future crises.

Different Trajectories of Panic and the Associated Factors among Unmarried Chinese during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: A large number of the population experienced panic during the pandemic of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. The current study explored the trajectory of panic and its associated factors to develop promising strategies for controlling the global spread of COVID-19 and improving the mental health emergency management. METHODS: A total of 812 unmarried adults (aged from 18 to 42 years, M = 23.3, SD = 3.45) from all over China participated online in our investigation. A Growth Mixture Model (GMM) was developed and analysed. RESULTS: Three classes of trajectories for panic were identified: the "continuous decline group (CDG)", the "continuous low group (CLG)," and the "continuous high group (CHG)". With reference to the CDG, people in the CHG were more sensitive to social factors. With reference to the CDG, people in the CLG were more likely to possess some of the following traits: being men, in Hubei Province (center of the pandemic), with a lower income, and less sensitive towards social factors and individual factors. With reference to the CLG, people in the CHG were more likely to be women, located outside of Hubei Province, and more sensitive to social factors, family factors, and individual factors. CONCLUSION: Social factors, family factors, and individual factors predicted the different trajectories of panic.

Spring in London with Covid-19: a personal view.

This is a personal view from London as the Covid-19 pandemic continues to spread here and the situation changes from day to day. As such it can only be a snapshot caught in time; it is not a diary of events. The Coronavirus Act 2020 gives Government enormous powers and was passed by Parliament in one day of debate immediately before it closed early for the Easter break. In March, the government imposed a "lockdown: the closure of all" but "essential" businesses and people other than essential workers must work from home but are allowed out for exercise and food shopping but must maintain 2 m apart, the "social distancing rule". The aim is to suppress the spread of the virus, reduce the death toll and "protect the National Health Service (NHS)" which needed time to empty wards and expand its intensive care unit (ICU) capability to deal with an expected influx of thousands of very sick patients. I discuss whether this strategy is working, how and why it has rapidly been altered to respond to criticism. Why was the Government so slow to seek the help of private laboratories to assist with testing? Why was the personal protective equipment (PPE) guidance altered only after criticism? I look at the impact of the lockdown on the UK economy, the changes to practice of medicine and speeding of scientific research. Cooperating with the lockdown has its price; is it harming the health and mental health of children, people living in households with potentially abusive partners or parents and those who are disabled or financially desperate? Is the cure worse than the disease? The Economy is being devastated by the lockdown and each day of lockdown it is worse. Is litigation being seeded even now by the pandemic? Notwithstanding unprecedented Government financial help many businesses are on the edge of collapse, people will lose their jobs and pensioners income. The winners include pharmacies, supermarkets, online food retailers, Amazon, online apps, providers of video games, services, streaming and scientific research laboratories, manufacturers of testing kits, ventilators, hand sanitisers, coffins, undertakers, etc. The British public is cooperating with lockdown but are we less productive at home? Parents with babies and children often child minders, school, grandparents or paid help which is not now available. Will current reliance on video-conferencing and video calls permanently change the way we work and will we need smaller city offices? Will we travel less? Will medical and legal practice and civil and criminal trials be generally carried out remotely? Will social distancing with self-isolation and job losses and business failures fuel depression? Is Covid-19 comparable to past epidemics like the Plague and Spanish flu?

Longitudinal association between panic disorder and health care costs in older adults.

BACKGROUND: To analyze whether probable panic disorder (PD) is associated with health care costs in older age over time. METHODS: Data regarding individuals aged 65 and over were derived from two waves of the ESTHER cohort study (nt1 = 2,348, nt2 = 2,090). Probable PD was assessed using the panic screening module from the Patient Health Questionnaire. Health care costs were obtained through monetary valuation of self-reported health care use data. Fixed effects regressions analyzed the association between transitions in probable PD status and change in health care costs, while adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: On a descriptive level, study participants with a positive PD screening displayed higher three-month health care costs compared to those without (incremental costs: € 259 for t1 , € 1,544 for t2 ). Transitions in probable PD were associated with an approximate increase of 65% in outpatient health care costs (ß = 0.50, p < .05). There was no significant association between probable PD transition and change in any other cost category. CONCLUSIONS: Using longitudinal data, our results highlight the economic consequences of probable PD in older adults. Future research should address whether reducing PD in older adults may reduce the associated economic burden and analyze underlying mechanisms.

Internet-Delivered Cognitive Behavioural Therapy for Major Depression and Anxiety Disorders: A Health Technology Assessment.

BACKGROUND: Major depression is defined as a period of depression lasting at least 2 weeks characterized by depressed mood, most of the day, nearly every day, and/or markedly diminished interest or pleasure in all, or almost all, activities. Anxiety disorders encompass a broad range of disorders in which people experience feelings of fear and excessive worry that interfere with normal day-to-day functioning.Cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) is a form of evidence-based psychotherapy used to treat major depression and anxiety disorders. Internet-delivered CBT (iCBT) is structured, goal-oriented CBT delivered via the internet. It may be guided, in which the patient communicates with a regulated health care professional, or unguided, in which the patient is not supported by a regulated health care professional. METHODS: We conducted a health technology assessment, which included an evaluation of clinical benefit, value for money, and patient preferences and values related to the use of iCBT for the treatment of mild to moderate major depression or anxiety disorders. We performed a systematic review of the clinical and economic literature and conducted a grey literature search. We reported Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) ratings if sufficient information was provided. When other quality assessment tools were used by the systematic review authors in the included studies, these were reported. We assessed the risk of bias within the included reviews. We also developed decision-analytic models to compare the costs and benefits of unguided iCBT, guided iCBT, face-to-face CBT, and usual care over 1 year using a sequential approach. We further explored the lifetime and short-term cost-effectiveness of stepped-care models, including iCBT, compared with usual care. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) from the perspective of the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care and estimated the 5-year budget impact of publicly funding iCBT for mild to moderate major depression or anxiety disorders in Ontario. To contextualize the potential value of iCBT as a treatment option for major depression or anxiety disorders, we spoke with people with these conditions. RESULTS: People who had undergone guided iCBT for mild to moderate major depression (standardized mean difference [SMD] = 0.83, 95% CI 0.59-1.07, GRADE moderate), generalized anxiety disorder (SMD = 0.84, 95% CI 0.45-1.23, GRADE low), panic disorder (small to very large effects, GRADE low), and social phobia (SMD = 0.85, 95% CI 0.66-1.05, GRADE moderate) showed a statistically significant improvement in symptoms compared with people on a waiting list. People who had undergone iCBT for panic disorder (SMD= 1.15, 95% CI: 0.94 to 1.37) and iCBT for social anxiety disorder (SMD=0.91, 95% CI: 0.74-1.07) showed a statistically significant improvement in symptoms compared with people on a waiting list. There was a statistically significant improvement in quality of life for people with generalized anxiety disorder who had undergone iCBT (SMD = 0.38, 95% CI 0.08-0.67) compared with people on a waiting list. The mean differences between people who had undergone iCBT compared with usual care at 3, 5, and 8 months were -4.3, -3.9, and -5.9, respectively. The negative mean difference at each follow-up showed an improvement in symptoms of depression for participants randomized to the iCBT group compared with usual care. People who had undergone guided iCBT showed no statistically significant improvement in symptoms of panic disorder compared with individual or group face-to-face CBT (d = 0.00, 95% CI -0.41 to 0.41, GRADE very low). Similarly, there was no statistically significant difference in symptoms of specific phobia in people who had undergone guided iCBT compared with brief therapist-led exposure (GRADE very low). There was a small statistically significant improvement in symptoms in favour of guided iCBT compared with group face-to-face CBT (d= 0.41, 95% CI 0.03-0.78, GRADE low) for social phobia. There was no statistically significant improvement in quality of life reported for people with panic disorder who had undergone iCBT compared with face-to-face CBT (SMD = -0.07, 95% CI -0.34 to 0.21).Guided iCBT was the optimal strategy in the reference case cost-utility analyses. For adults with mild to moderate major depression, guided iCBT was associated with increases in both quality-adjusted survival (0.04 quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) and cost ($1,257), yielding an ICER of $31,575 per QALY gained when compared with usual care. In adults with anxiety disorders, guided iCBT was also associated with increases in both quality-adjusted survival (0.03 QALYs) and cost ($1,395), yielding an ICER of $43,214 per QALY gained when compared with unguided iCBT. In this population, guided iCBT was associated with an ICER of $26,719 per QALY gained when compared with usual care. The probability of cost-effectiveness of guided iCBT for major depression and anxiety disorders, respectively, was 67% and 70% at willingness-to-pay of $100,000 per QALY gained. Guided iCBT delivered within stepped-care models appears to represent good value for money for the treatment of mild to moderate major depression and anxiety disorders.Assuming a 3% increase in access per year (from about 8,000 people in year 1 to about 32,000 people in year 5), the net budget impact of publicly funding guided iCBT for the treatment of mild to moderate major depression would range from about $10 million in year 1 to about $40 million in year 5. The corresponding net budget impact for the treatment of anxiety disorders would range from about $16 million in year 1 (about 13,000 people) to about $65 million in year 5 (about 52,000 people).People with depression or an anxiety disorder with whom we spoke reported that iCBT improves access for those who face challenges with face-to-face therapy because of costs, time, or the severity of their condition. They reported that iCBT provides better control over the pace, time, and location of therapy, as well as greater access to educational material. Some reported barriers to iCBT include the cost of therapy; the need for a computer and internet access, computer literacy, and the ability to understand complex written information. Language and disability barriers also exist. Reported limitations to iCBT include the ridigity of the program, the lack of face-to-face interactions with a therapist, technological difficulties, and the inability of an internet protocol to treat severe depression and some types of anxiety disorder. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with waiting list, guided iCBT is effective and likely results in symptom improvement in mild to moderate major depression and social phobia. Guided iCBT may improve the symptoms of generalized anxiety disorder and panic disorder compared with waiting list. However, we are uncertain about the effectiveness of iCBT compared with individual or group face-to-face CBT. Guided iCBT represents good value for money and could be offered for the short-term treatment of adults with mild to moderate major depression or anxiety disorders. Most people with mild to moderate depression or anxiety disorders with whom we spoke felt that, despite some perceived limitations, iCBT provides greater control over the time, pace, and location of therapy. It also improves access for people who could not otherwise access therapy because of cost, time, or the nature of their health condition.

Anticipating Economic Market Crises Using Measures of Collective Panic.

Predicting panic is of critical importance in many areas of human and animal behavior, notably in the context of economics. The recent financial crisis is a case in point. Panic may be due to a specific external threat or self-generated nervousness. Here we show that the recent economic crisis and earlier large single-day panics were preceded by extended periods of high levels of market mimicry--direct evidence of uncertainty and nervousness, and of the comparatively weak influence of external news. High levels of mimicry can be a quite general indicator of the potential for self-organized crises.

Cognitive behavioural intervention for adults with anxiety complications of asthma: prospective randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: High levels of asthma-related fear and panic exacerbate asthma symptoms and complicate the management of asthma. Asthma-specific fear may be reduced by a cognitive behavioural intervention. We aimed to test if there is a reduction in asthma-specific fear after cognitive behavioural intervention compared with routine treatment. METHODS: Adults with asthma registered with family doctors in Sheffield UK were screened for anxiety and 94 highly anxious patients were randomly allocated to receive either a cognitive behavioural intervention to improve self-management of their anxiety (n = 50) or routine clinical care (n = 44). Asthma-specific fear at the end of treatment and at six month follow up were the primary endpoints. Service usage in the six months prior to and six months following the intervention was monitored to allow estimation of costs. Data were analysed by intention to treat. FINDINGS: At the end of treatment, there was a significantly greater reduction in asthma-specific fear for people in the CBT group compared with controls. At six months after treatment the reduction in asthma-specific fear in the CBT group was increased and the difference between treatment and control group was statistically significant. Service use costs were not reduced in the CBT group. INTERPRETATION: A brief cognitive behavioural intervention was found to have efficacy in reducing asthma-specific panic fear immediately after treatment and at 6 months follow up. There was no cost advantage to cognitive behavioural treatment.

The effects of an Internet based self-help course for reducing panic symptoms--Don't Panic Online: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Internet based self-help for panic disorder (PD) has proven to be effective. However, studies so far have focussed on treating a full-blown disorder. Panic symptoms that do not meet DSM-IV criteria are more prevalent than the full-blown disorder and patients with sub-clinical panic symptoms are at risk of developing PD. This study is a randomised controlled trial aimed to evaluate an Internet based self-help intervention for sub-clinical and mild PD compared to a waiting list control group. METHODS: Participants with mild or sub-clinical PD (N = 128) will be recruited in the general population. Severity of panic and anxiety symptoms are the primary outcome measures. Secondary outcomes include depressive symptoms, quality of life, loss of production and health care consumption. Assessments will take place on the Internet at baseline and three months after baseline. DISCUSSION: Results will indicate the effectiveness of Internet based self-help for sub-clinical and mild PD. Strengths of this design are the external validity and the fact that it is almost completely conducted online.

Don't panic--prepare: towards crisis-aware models of emergency department operations.

The existing models of Emergency Department (ED) operations that are based on the "flow-shop" management logic do not provide adequate decision support in dealing with the ED overcrowding crises. A conceptually different crisis-aware approach to ED modelling and operational decision support is introduced in this paper. It is based on Perrow's theory of "normal accidents" and calls for recognizing the inevitable nature of ED overcrowding crises within current health system setup. Managing the crisis before it happens--a standard approach in crisis management area--should become an integral part of ED operations management. The potential implications of adopting such a crisis-aware perspective for health services research and ED management are outlined.