Socioeconomic determinants of early childhood development: evidence from Pakistan.

This study investigates the socioeconomic determinants of early childhood development (ECD) in Pakistan by utilizing the data of sixth wave of the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) conducted in the four provinces of the country. The findings of the study reveal that mother's education, father's education, economic status of the household as measured by household's wealth index quintile, region of residence (province), child's gender, disability, nutrition and the practices used by the adult members of the household to discipline child are important determinants of ECD. The study highlights the crucial role of family background and importance of addressing the issue of malnutrition to foster child development.

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic period on stock market return and volatility. Evidence from the Pakistan Stock Exchange.

The COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as a significant event of the current century, introducing substantial transformations in economic and social activities worldwide. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between daily COVID-19 cases and Pakistan stock market (PSX) return volatility. To assess the relationship between daily COVID-19 cases and the PSX return volatility, we collected secondary data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the PSX website, specifically focusing on the PSX 100 index, spanning from March 15, 2020, to March 31, 2021. We used the GARCH family models for measuring the volatility and the COVID-19 impact on the stock market performance. Our E-GARCH findings show that there is long-term persistence in the return volatility of the stock market of Pakistan in the period of the COVID-19 timeline because ARCH alpha (ω1) and GARCH beta (ω2) are significant. Moreover, is asymmetrical effect is found in the stock market of Pakistan during the COVID-19 period due to Gamma (ѱ) being significant for PSX. Our DCC-GARCH results show that the COVID-19 active cases have a long-term spillover impact on the Pakistan stock market. Therefore, the need of strong planning and alternative platform should be needed in the distress period to promote the stock market and investor should advised to make diversified international portfolio by investing in high and low volatility stock market to save their income. This study advocated the implications for investors to invest in low volatility stock especially during the period of pandemics to protect their return on investment. Moreover, policy makers and the regulators can make effective policies to maintain financial stability during pandemics that is very important for the country's economic development.

Economic costs of perinatal depression and anxiety in a lower middle income country: Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Women's mental health during the perinatal period is a major public health problem in Pakistan. Many challenges and competing priorities prevent progress to address the large treatment gap. Aim To quantify the long-term impacts of untreated perinatal depression and anxiety in economic terms, thus highlighting its overall burden based on country-specific evidence. METHODS: Cost estimates were generated for a hypothetical cohort of women giving birth in 2017, and their children. Women and children experiencing adverse events linked to perinatal mental health problems were modelled over 40 years. Costs assigned to adverse events included were those linked to losses in quantity and quality-of-life, productivity, and healthcare-related expenditure. Present values were derived using a discount rate of 3 %. Data were taken from published cohort studies, as well as from sources of population, economic and health indicators. RESULTS: The total costs were $16.5 billion for the cohort and $2680 per woman giving birth. The by far largest proportion referred to quality-of-life losses ($15.8 billion). Productivity losses and out-of-pocket expenditure made up only a small proportion of the costs, due to low wages and market prices. When the costs of maternal suicide were included, total costs increased to $16.6 billion. LIMITATIONS: Important evidence gaps prevented the inclusion of all cost consequences linked to perinatal mental health problems. CONCLUSIONS: Total national costs are much higher compared with those in other, higher middle-income countries, reflecting the excessive disease burden. This study is an important first step to inform resource allocations.

Out-of-pocket expenditures associated with double disease burden in Pakistan: a quantile regression analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pakistan is currently experiencing a double burden of disease. Families with members having both communicable and noncommunicable diseases are at a greater risk of impoverishment due to enormous out-of-pocket payments. This study examines the percentile distribution of the determinants of the out-of-pocket expenditure on the double disease burden. METHOD: The study extracted a sample of 6,775 households with at least one member experiencing both communicable and noncommunicable diseases from the Household Integrated Economic Survey 2018-19. The dataset is cross-sectional and nationally representative. Quantile regression was used to analyze the association of various socioeconomic factors with the OOP expenditure associated with double disease burden. RESULTS: Overall, 28.5% of households had double disease in 2018-19. The households with uneducated heads, male heads, outpatient healthcare, patients availing public sector healthcare services, and rural and older members showed a significant association with the prevalence of double disease. The out-of-pocket expenditure was higher for depression, liver and kidney disease, hepatitis, and pneumonia in the upper percentiles. The quantile regression results showed that an increased number of communicable and noncommunicable diseases was associated with higher monthly OOP expenditure in the lower percentiles (10th percentile, coefficient 312, 95% CI: 92-532), and OOP expenditure was less pronounced among the higher percentiles (75th percentile, coefficient 155, 95% CI: 30-270). The households with older members were associated with higher OOP expenditure at higher tails (50th and 75th percentiles) compared to lower (10th and 25th percentiles). Family size was associated with higher OOPE at lower percentiles than higher ones. CONCLUSION: The coexistence of communicable and noncommunicable diseases is associated with excessive private healthcare costs in Pakistan. The results call for addressing the variations in financial costs associated with double diseases.

Assessment of the impact of integrated disease surveillance and response system on surveillance management at healthcare facilities in Pakistan.

Background: Disease surveillance is very crucial especially in high vulnerability settings like Pakistan. However, surveillance and outbreak response management are still evolving in the country and research studies are needed to assess the existing system. Aim: To assess the impact of integrated disease surveillance and response system (IDSRS) implemented by the provincial government to strengthen infectious disease surveillance and reporting in 6 districts of Pakistan in 2016. Methods: A baseline cross-sectional assessment of health facilities and the healthcare workforce was conducted in 2016 to identify needs and gaps in public sector health facilities and the health system of 6 selected districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan. This was followed by a 2018 endline survey of the same facilities using the same variables. Results: Overall, there was improvement in district management and facility level performance (χ2 (1, 314) = 21.19, P < 0.001, V = 0.26). District level management improved significantly in areas with relatively lower Gross Domestic Product (GDP)? χ2(1, 154) = 30.41, P <0.001, V = 0.44). Facilitation domain variables improved in the lower GDP districts (χ2 (1, 74) = 5.76, P = 0.016, V = 0.28) and showed counterintuitive deterioration (χ2 (1, 74) = 4.80, P = 0.028, V = 0.25) in relatively higher GDP areas. Conclusion: IDSRS is effective in improving surveillance and response systems, however, its effectiveness appears to depend on locale-specific economies and can be enhanced by modifying the implementation approach. Better empowerment of the local workforce can contribute to such improvement.

Caries risk assessment by Caries Management by Risk Assessment (CAMBRA) Protocol among the general population of Pakistan-a multicenter analytical study.

Background: Caries risk (CR) assessment tools are used to properly identify individuals with caries risk and to improve preventive procedures and programs. A tool such as CAMBRA determines the precise protective factors of caries and identifies an individual's specific therapeutic intervention. The purpose of this study was to assess the caries risk using the CAMBRA protocol among the general population of Pakistan. Methods: This multicentre analytical study was conducted in ten dental hospitals in different provinces of Pakistan and the caries risk assessment was carried out using a questionnaire that was designed using the Caries Management by Risk Assessment (CAMBRA) protocol. All 521 participants were intra-orally examined to assess oral hygiene status and the presence of disease. Multiple logistic regression test was performed for analysis. Results: A higher number of participants (61.2%) were found to be in the moderate risk category of caries risk assessment. The males are 51% less likely to have caries compared to the females (AOR = 0.49, P = 0.081). The majority of participants (71.3%) had one or more disease indicators, with white spots and visible cavities. Those with visible, heavy plaque were 13.9 times more likely to have caries compared to those without (AOR = 13.92, P < 0.001). Those using calcium and phosphate during the last 6 months were 90% less likely to have caries compared to those not using them (AOR = 0.10, P < 0.001). There was no significant interaction between all eight risk factors retained in the final model (P > 0.05), the Hosmer and Lemeshow Test P < 0.001, classification accuracy = 87.1%, and AUC = 91.2%. Conclusion: The caries risk among the general population of Pakistan is moderate, with significant variation among age groups, education levels, and socioeconomic status.

Assessment of Babesia spp. prevalence in various domestic animals across Southern Punjab, Pakistan.

Parasitic diseases, notably babesiosis, exert a substantial impact on the global cattle industry, posing challenges to commerce, economies, and human health. This study, conducted in Southern Punjab, Pakistan, aimed to assess the prevalence of Babesia spp. across various livestock species using microscopic and PCR methods. A total of 180 blood samples (60 from each district) were systematically collected from apparently healthy animals, with 36 samples obtained from each domestic animal species, including camel, cattle, buffalo, goat, and sheep, noting that 12 samples were collected from each district for each animal species. Overall prevalence was determined to be 32.8% (59/180), with varying rates among species: 25.0% in cattle, 41.66% in buffalo, 30.55% in goats, 33.3% in sheep, and 33.3% in camels. Microscopic examination revealed slightly varied infection rates among large and small domestic animals (22.2%), while PCR results indicated a 32.8% overall infection rate in both large and small domestic animals, with no statistical significance. District-wise analysis showed regional variations, with Muzaffargarh recording a prevalence rate of 23.33% through microscopic examination, while Lodhran and Bahawalpur recorded 21.67%. PCR results revealed higher rates (38.33%, 26.67%, and 33.33%, respectively), underlining the importance of employing PCR for accurate detection. Examining ruminant types, large ruminants exhibited a 32.4% infection rate, while small domestic animals showed 33.3%, with no significant difference (p=0.897). District-wise prevalence showcased significant variation, with Muzaffargarh demonstrating a 25% prevalence, Lodhran 22%, and Bahawalpur 22%, through microscopic examination. PCR results displayed 38.33%, 27%, and 33.3%, respectively, with no statistical significance. Detailed analysis of individual districts highlighted variations in infection rates among camels, cattle, buffalo, goats, and sheep. The binomial test indicated significant differences through microscopic analysis (P=0.011) but non-significant variations through PCR (P=0.065), emphasizing the precision of PCR. Regional variations in prevalence, notably with Punjab exhibiting the highest frequency (33.87%) and KPK the lowest (13.24%), suggest potential influences from varying veterinary practices and environmental factors. This study underscores the pivotal role of PCR alongside microscopy for accurate babesiosis diagnosis. These findings contribute to the broader understanding of babesiosis prevalence, emphasizing the necessity of advanced molecular techniques for informed control measures.

Impact of hepatitis B birth dose on immune response in Pakistani children: an open-label, non-inferiority randomized controlled trial, implications for achieving SDG target.

BACKGROUND: Despite presence of hyperendemic areas, the national immunisation schedule in Pakistan does not include a hepatitis B birth dose, placing newborns at an additional risk of acquiring hepatitis B. This study aimed to assess the impact of adding hepatitis B birth dose in existing national vaccination schedule. METHODS: An open label, randomised controlled non-inferiority trial enrolled 296 healthy near-term mothers to intervention and control groups. Newborns in the intervention group received a hepatitis B birth dose along with routine immunisation vaccines, while control group newborns received vaccinations under the national schedule. Seroprotection was measured and compared at birth and 8 weeks after administering the third dose of pentavalent vaccine. The risk ratio of seroprotection was computed and compared with the delta value set at 5%. RESULTS: The study found that 95.8% of infants in the intervention group achieved seroprotection, which was significantly higher than the control group's 58.7%. The difference in risk ratio of seroprotection was 1.62 (CI95: 1.37-1.93), with the upper limit of the CI below the delta margin, confirming non-inferiority. The time interval between birth and the first hepatitis B immunisation shot was a predictor of seroprotection, with an odds ratio of 1.79 (CI95: 1.01-2.9). CONCLUSION: Our study indicates that adding a hepatitis B birth dose to the immunisation schedule in Pakistan is non-inferior to the existing one. This can also contribute towards Pakistan's achievement of the SDG target of reducing hepatitis B surface antigen seroprevalence in children under 5 years of age. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04870021.

Coordination strategies and concept of operations implemented during activation of public health emergency operations center for COVID-19 response in Pakistan.

Public health emergency management systems encountered difficulties in developing countries, especially in Pakistan. The COVID-19 pandemic was extremely challenging for different agencies/departments in Pakistan. Health emergency management depends on a well-established public health emergency operations center that could generate a coordinated response to emergencies. We conducted an assessment of public health emergency response coordination implemented during the COVID-19 at strategic level. This was mix-method qualitative study. Primary data was collected by using a structured questionnaire, and secondary data was collected by desk review. The agencies engaged in pandemic response at the national level in Pakistan were included in the assessment. The overall score of the emergency response coordination system during COVID-19 was 49% for all agencies. We found that agencies faced challenges in leadership, legislation, and financing issues during the pandemic response (44%). None of the agencies had a fully developed framework for joint planning and response system for health emergencies. Roles and responsibilities attached to designated agencies in response were relatively clear (55%) for most of the agencies. Effective public health emergency response is based on multi-departmental coordination, resource mobilization, and clear roles for each agency. Pakistan must proactively address these challenges for pandemic response in future.

Sociodemographic determinants of gender disparity in primary percutaneous coronary intervention in Pakistan.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to contribute to the body of literature on gender disparities after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI). METHODS: We identified all adult patients who had AMI between January 2017, and December 2022 and were in follow-up at our institute. We collected data on PPCI, revascularization strategy, sociodemographic characteristics, and in-hospital complications in the years following the procedure. RESULTS: A total of 5,872 patients who underwent PCI for AMI were included in the study, out of which 2,058 (35%) were women and 3,814 (65%) were men. Regarding the timing of PCI, female patients had a significantly longer median door-to-balloon time compared to male patients (136 minutes vs 108 minutes, P-value = 0.006). Female patients had a significantly higher rate of in-hospital mortality compared to male patients (5.5% vs 1.2%, P-value = 0.011). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that female gender, older age, and lower household income were independent predictors of longer door-to-balloon time. CONCLUSION: This study highlights gender disparities in PPCI in Pakistan, with female patients facing longer door-to-balloon times and higher in-hospital mortality rates. The findings suggest the need for targeted interventions to improve the access and quality of care for female patients with AMI.

Protocol for a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of digital health interventions in improving non-communicable disease management during the pandemic in rural Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed gaps in global health systems, especially in the low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Evidence shows that patients with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are at higher risk of contracting COVID-19 and suffering direct and indirect health consequences. Considering the future challenges such as environmental disasters and pandemics to the LMICs health systems, digital health interventions (DHI) are well poised to strengthen health care resilience. This study aims to implement and evaluate a comprehensive package of DHIs of integrated COVID-NCD care to manage NCDs in primary care facilities in rural Pakistan. METHODS: The study is designed as a pragmatic, parallel two-arm, multi-centre, mix-methods cluster randomised controlled trial. We will randomise 30 primary care facilities in three districts of Punjab, where basic hypertension and diabetes diagnosis and treatment are provided, with a ratio of 1:1 between intervention and control. In each facility, we will recruit 50 patients who have uncontrolled hypertension. The intervention arm will receive training on an integrated COVID-NCD guideline, and will use a smartphone app-based telemedicine platform where patients can communicate with health providers and peer-supporters, along with a remote training and supervision system. Usual care will be provided in the control arm. Patients will be followed up for 10 months. Our primary indicator is systolic blood pressure measured at 10 months. A process evaluation guided by implementation science frameworks will be conducted to explore implementation questions. A cost-effectiveness evaluation will be conducted to inform future scale up in Pakistan and other LMICs. DISCUSSION: Our study is one of the first randomised controlled trials to evaluate the effectiveness of DHIs to manage NCDs to strengthen health system resilience in LMICs. We will also evaluate the implementation process and cost-effectiveness to inform future scale-up in similar resource constrained settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier-NCT05699369.

Molecular detection and assessment of risk factors for Theileria lestoquardi in sheep from Balochistan, Pakistan.

This study aimed to determine the molecular prevalence and associated risk factors of theileriosis in sheep from Balochistan, Pakistan. For this purpose, a total of 408 blood samples were collected from tick-infested sheep in three different zones of Balochistan (i.e., Quetta, Zhob, and Loralai). All the collected samples were analyzed using conventional microscopy techniques, polymerase chain reaction (PCR), 18S small subunit rRNA gene sequencing, and phylogenetic analysis. The results of the microscopy and PCR confirmed the highest prevalence of Theileria species in district Zhob (14.22% and 15.68%) followed by district Loralai (11.52% and 13.97%) and district Quetta (10.29% and 12.00%), respectively. In addition, the prevalence of T. lestoquardi was higher in female sheep (84.12%), followed by adult sheep (74.71%) and the Hernai breed of sheep (28.23%) in the studied area. Similarly, the prevalence of theileriosis was higher in the summer season (40.59%), followed by the spring, autumn, and winter seasons. However, numerous risk factors such as age, sex, area, season, and breeds of the sheep were not significantly correlated (P > 0.05) with the presence of T. lestoquardi, except tick abundance and feeding pattern of animals (P < 0.05). Furthermore, sequencing and phylogenetic analyses of the isolated T. lestoquardi displayed 99% sequence similarity with isolates from Germany, Egypt, Iraq, India, Iran, and Pakistan. Altogether these results showed that T. lestoquardi is the main species causing ovine theileriosis in Balochistan. As a result, large-scale studies are required to design practical control approaches to reduce the risk of theileriosis infection in Balochistan, Pakistan.

Assessment of renal function and prevalence of acute kidney injury following coronary artery bypass graft surgery and associated risk factors: A retrospective cohort study at a tertiary care hospital in Islamabad, Pakistan.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a sudden decline in renal function after cardiac surgery. It is characterized by a significant reduction in glomerular filtration rate, alterations in serum creatinine (S.Cr) levels, and urine output. This study aimed to retrospectively analyze a cohort of 704 patients selected using stringent inclusion and exclusion criteria. AKI was defined by an increase of 0.3 mg/dL in S.Cr levels compared to baseline. Data were collected from the hospital and analyzed using SPSS 16.0. Data analysis revealed that 22% (n = 155) of the patients developed AKI on the second post-operative day, accompanied by a substantial increase in S.Cr levels (from 1.064 ±â€…0.2504 to 1.255 ±â€…0.2673, P < .000). Age and cardiopulmonary bypass duration were identified as risk factors along with ejection fraction and days of hospital stay, contributing to the development of AKI. Early renal replacement therapy can be planned when the diagnosis of AKI is established early after surgery.

Assessment Of Cardiorespiratory Fitness By The Ruffier Dickson Test And Its Correlation With Lifestyle Related Factors: A Cross Sectional Study Among Pakistani Youth.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the correlation of physical activity, screen time and anthropometric parameters with cardiorespiratory fitness using the Ruffier Dickson test. METHODS: The cross-sectionalstudywas conductedatthe RiphahInternationalUniversity, Islamabad, Pakistan,fromOctober 2021 to May 2022, and comprised healthy undergraduate medical students of either gender aged 18-23 years. Anthropometric parameters were measured and standardised assessment tools were used to assess screen time and physical activity. Cardiorespiratory fitness was assessed using Ruffier Dickson test. Data was analysed using SPSS 26. RESULTS: Of the 300 subjects, 186(62%) were females and 114(38%) were males. Body mass index, body weight, resting heart rate, height and the level of physical activity were significantly associated with cardiorespiratory fitness(p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Physical activity, body weight and body massindex could independently predict cardiorespiratory fitness.

Determinants of the food insecurity at household level in Pakistan: A multilevel model approach.

Food insecurity is a major concern for the developing world and around 37% of the population of Pakistan is food insecure. This paper utilizes the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) to assess the population prevalence of food insecurity and to identify their risk factors and determinants at the household level in Pakistan. This study employs a multi-level random coefficient model, using the Pakistan Panel Household Survey (PPHS-2010) dataset; representative data from 4,130 households. Factors like; income of the household, gender, education, household size, land ownership, and shocks of food insecurity allow the incidence of idiosyncratic shocks (injuries and/or casualties) at the community level, which affects the food insecurity situation of the community, rather differently were included. The study confirms a statistically significant inverse relationship between household income, household size, and household head education with food insecurity and a positive association of shocks and inflation with food insecurity at the household level. Specifically, with increasing per capita income of the household, food insecurity declines (coefficient: -0.083, statistically significant at 1%) and food insecurity increases with shocks (coefficient: 0.058, statistically significant at 1% significance level). The study also reveals a significant heterogeneity at a one percent significance level in the determinants of food insecurity at the district, community, and household levels. The income of the household, household head gender and education level, household size, household assets, shocks, injuries, and inflationary pressure are important determinants of food insecurity in Pakistan.

Assessment of fall-associated risk factors in the Muslim community-dwelling older adults of Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Falls are the third-leading cause of disability among the elderly population worldwide. It is multifactorial, and the occurrence of falls depends on different factors, which can be different from context to context, and individual to individual. Therefore, regular assessment of fall risk factors is required to develop a strategy for fall prevention. The study aimed to identify fall-related risk factors in Pakistani healthy older adults at risk of developing physical disabilities. It also aimed to create a risk-predictive model for fall occurrence, offering evidence for preventive strategies. METHODS: Data were collected from 140 Muslim older adults from two residential areas of Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, from July 2022 to August 25, 2022, after obtaining permission from the Zhengzhou University Ethical Review Board (ZZUIRB #202,254), and the District Health Department Office (DHO #14,207). Participants were informed, and consent was obtained before data collection. Data were collected using the Time Up and Go Test (TUGT) checklist, the Cognitive Screening Scores (CS-10) checklist, interviews regarding the prayer practice, fall history in the last six months, visual equity questions, and demographic variables. RESULTS: Factors associated with falls were; age, gender, education, cognitive status, poor walking speed, lack of physical activity, poor vision, and history of falls in the last six months, with a significant P value of (P. < 0.05) in the Pearson correlation coefficient test. Poor cognition, low visual equity, poor walking speed, and lack of exercise increase the risk of falling in the future, with a prediction value of (P < 0.005) in Omnibus, Lemeshow score of (0.77). CONCLUSION: Hence, our study provides a road map for future risk assessment of falls by adding the four mentioned risk factors in the proposed model to facilitate timely action to prevent fall-related infirmities in Pakistani healthy older adults.