Simulating the council-specific impact of anti-malaria interventions: A tool to support malaria strategic planning in Tanzania.

INTRODUCTION: The decision-making process for malaria control and elimination strategies has become more challenging. Interventions need to be targeted at council level to allow for changing malaria epidemiology and an increase in the number of possible interventions. Models of malaria dynamics can support this process by simulating potential impacts of multiple interventions in different settings and determining appropriate packages of interventions for meeting specific expected targets. METHODS: The OpenMalaria model of malaria dynamics was calibrated for all 184 councils in mainland Tanzania using data from malaria indicator surveys, school parasitaemia surveys, entomological surveillance, and vector control deployment data. The simulations were run for different transmission intensities per region and five interventions, currently or potentially included in the National Malaria Strategic Plan, individually and in combination. The simulated prevalences were fitted to council specific prevalences derived from geostatistical models to obtain council specific predictions of the prevalence and number of cases between 2017 and 2020. The predictions were used to evaluate in silico the feasibility of the national target of reaching a prevalence of below 1% by 2020, and to suggest alternative intervention stratifications for the country. RESULTS: The historical prevalence trend was fitted for each council with an agreement of 87% in 2016 (95%CI: 0.84-0.90) and an agreement of 90% for the historical trend (2003-2016) (95%CI: 0.87-0.93) The current national malaria strategy was expected to reduce the malaria prevalence between 2016 and 2020 on average by 23.8% (95% CI: 19.7%-27.9%) if current case management levels were maintained, and by 52.1% (95% CI: 48.8%-55.3%) if the case management were improved. Insecticide treated nets and case management were the most cost-effective interventions, expected to reduce the prevalence by 25.0% (95% CI: 19.7%-30.2) and to avert 37 million cases between 2017 and 2020. Mass drug administration was included in most councils in the stratification selected for meeting the national target at minimal costs, expected to reduce the prevalence by 77.5% (95%CI: 70.5%-84.5%) and to avert 102 million cases, with almost twice higher costs than those of the current national strategy. In summary, the model suggested that current interventions are not sufficient to reach the national aim of a prevalence of less than 1% by 2020 and a revised strategic plan needs to consider additional, more effective interventions, especially in high transmission areas and that the targets need to be revisited. CONCLUSION: The methodology reported here is based on intensive interactions with the NMCP and provides a helpful tool for assessing the feasibility of country specific targets and for determining which intervention stratifications at sub-national level will have most impact. This country-led application could support strategic planning of malaria control in many other malaria endemic countries.

A low-cost, automated parasite diagnostic system via a portable, robotic microscope and deep learning.

Manual hand counting of parasites in fecal samples requires costly components and substantial expertise, limiting its use in resource-constrained settings and encouraging overuse of prophylactic medication. To address this issue, a cost-effective, automated parasite diagnostic system that does not require special sample preparation or a trained user was developed. It is composed of an inexpensive (~US$350), portable, robotic microscope that can scan over the size of an entire McMaster chamber (100 mm2 ) and capture high-resolution (~1 µm lateral resolution) bright field images without need for user intervention. Fecal samples prepared using the McMaster flotation method were imaged, with the imaging region comprising the entire McMaster chamber. These images are then automatically segmented and analyzed using a trained convolution neural network (CNN) to robustly separate eggs from background debris. Simple postprocessing of the CNN output yields both egg species and egg counts. The system was validated by comparing accuracy with hand-counts by a trained operator, with excellent performance. As a further demonstration of utility, the system was used to conveniently quantify drug response over time in a single animal, showing residual disease due to Anthelmintic resistance after 2 weeks.

Prevalence of malaria parasitemia and purchase of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) among drug shop clients in two regions in Tanzania with ACT subsidies.

BACKGROUND: Throughout Africa, many people seek care for malaria in private-sector drug shops where diagnostic testing is often unavailable. Recently, subsidized artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs), a first-line medication for uncomplicated malaria, were made available in these drug shops in Tanzania. This study assessed the prevalence of malaria among and purchase of ACTs by drug shop clients in the setting of a national ACT subsidy program and sub-national drug shop accreditation program. METHOD AND FINDINGS: A cross-sectional survey of drug shop clients was performed in two regions in Tanzania, one with a government drug shop accreditation program and one without, from March-May, 2012. Drug shops were randomly sampled from non-urban districts. Shop attendants were interviewed about their education, training, and accreditation status. Clients were interviewed about their symptoms and medication purchases, then underwent a limited physical examination and laboratory testing for malaria. Malaria prevalence and predictors of ACT purchase were assessed using univariate analysis and multiple logistic regression. Amongst 777 clients from 73 drug shops, the prevalence of laboratory-confirmed malaria was 12% (95% CI: 6-18%). Less than a third of clients with malaria had purchased ACTs, and less than a quarter of clients who purchased ACTs tested positive for malaria. Clients were more likely to have purchased ACTs if the participant was <5 years old (aOR: 6.6; 95% CI: 3.9-11.0) or the shop attendant had >5 years, experience (aOR: 2.8; 95% CI: 1.2-6.3). Having malaria was only a predictor of ACT purchase in the region with a drug shop accreditation program (aOR: 3.4; 95% CI: 1.5-7.4). CONCLUSION: Malaria is common amongst persons presenting to drug shops with a complaint of fever. The low proportion of persons with malaria purchasing ACTs, and the high proportion of ACTs going to persons without malaria demonstrates a need to better target who receives ACTs in these drug shops.

Can we trust measures of healthcare utilization from household surveys?

BACKGROUND: The research community relies heavily on measures of healthcare utilization from household surveys to understand health seeking choices and to evaluate interventions in developing countries. Such measures are known to suffer from recall problems but there is limited evidence of whether the method of data collection affects evaluation findings. We compared the results of a randomized trial of free healthcare using utilization data from two sources. METHODS: Data are from a study in Ghana, in which 2,194 households containing 2,592 children under 5 y old were randomized into a prepayment scheme providing free primary and some referral care, or to a control group whose families paid user fees for healthcare. Data on morbidity and health seeking behaviour were collected using a standard household survey administered at endline and a pictorial diary given to households over a six month period, collected at monthly intervals. RESULTS: Self-reported measures of morbidity and healthcare utilization were substantially lower in the household survey than the pictorial diary when the recall period was over a month. Introducing free healthcare had a positive effect on primary care visits based on the pictorial diary and a non-significant negative effect according to the household survey. Using any clinic visit in the past month as the outcome, the difference in the effect of free care between the two data collection methods was 3.6 percentage points (p = 0.078). CONCLUSIONS: The findings raise methodological concerns about measures of healthcare utilization from household surveys, particularly in the evaluation of health financing interventions.

[Evaluation of imported pediatric malaria management in northern France]. / Évaluation des pratiques dans la prise en charge du paludisme d'importation de l'enfant dans la région Nord--Pas-de-Calais.

OBJECTIVES: The study's objective was to evaluate the adequacy of treatment to recommendations, for the management of pediatric malaria. METHODS: A descriptive, retrospective, multicentre cohort study was conducted over a 7-year period (2000-2006) in 18 pediatric and infectious diseases units in northern France. All children, under 18 years of age, having consulted in one of these hospitals and for whom the diagnosis of malaria has been made by blood smear and/or thick drop examination, were included. RESULTS: One hundred and thirty-three cases of imported malaria were reported. Among the 120 available files, 23 documented severe malaria. Treatment documentation was available for 115 patients. This treatment was initiated orally in 47 cases and intravenously in 68 cases. Intravenous quinine was the first-line treatment in 58% of cases. Halofantrine was the first-line oral treatment. No change was observed along the 6 years. Only 32% of management was in adequacy with recommendations. Five therapeutic failures were recorded. The optimal application of recommendations would have saved 117 days in terms of hospital stay, corresponding to 54,000 €. CONCLUSIONS: The French Infectious Disease Society (SPILF) recommendations were not well observed. This inappropriate management was responsible for treatment failures and increased costs.

Principal component analysis of socioeconomic factors and their association with malaria in children from the Ashanti Region, Ghana.

BACKGROUND: The socioeconomic and sociodemographic situation are important components for the design and assessment of malaria control measures. In malaria endemic areas, however, valid classification of socioeconomic factors is difficult due to the lack of standardized tax and income data. The objective of this study was to quantify household socioeconomic levels using principal component analyses (PCA) to a set of indicator variables and to use a classification scheme for the multivariate analysis of children<15 years of age presented with and without malaria to an outpatient department of a rural hospital. METHODS: In total, 1,496 children presenting to the hospital were examined for malaria parasites and interviewed with a standardized questionnaire. The information of eleven indicators of the family's housing situation was reduced by PCA to a socioeconomic score, which was then classified into three socioeconomic status (poor, average and rich). Their influence on the malaria occurrence was analysed together with malaria risk co-factors, such as sex, parent's educational and ethnic background, number of children living in a household, applied malaria protection measures, place of residence and age of the child and the mother. RESULTS: The multivariate regression analysis demonstrated that the proportion of children with malaria decreased with increasing socioeconomic status as classified by PCA (p<0.05). Other independent factors for malaria risk were the use of malaria protection measures (p<0.05), the place of residence (p<0.05), and the age of the child (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The socioeconomic situation is significantly associated with malaria even in holoendemic rural areas where economic differences are not much pronounced. Valid classification of the socioeconomic level is crucial to be considered as confounder in intervention trials and in the planning of malaria control measures.

Fever treatment and household wealth: the challenge posed for rolling out combination therapy for malaria.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the variation in malaria parasitaemia, reported fever, care seeking, antimalarials obtained and household expenditure by socio-economic status (SES), and to assess the implications for ensuring equitable and appropriate use of antimalarial combination therapy. METHODS: A total of 2,500 households were surveyed in three rural districts in southern Tanzania in mid-2001. Blood samples and data on SES were collected from all households. Half the households completed a detailed questionnaire on care seeking and treatment costs. Households were categorised into SES thirds based on an index of household wealth derived using principal components analysis. RESULTS: Of individuals completing the detailed survey, 16% reported a fever episode in the previous 2 weeks. People from the better-off stratum were significantly less likely to be parasitaemic, and significantly more likely to obtain antimalarials than those in the middle or poor stratum. The better treatment obtained by the better off led them to spend two to three times more than the middle and poor third spent. This reflected greater use of non-governmental organisation (NGO) facilities, which were the most expensive source of care, and higher expenditure at NGO facilities and drug stores. CONCLUSION: The coverage of appropriate malaria treatment was low in all SES groups, but the two poorer groups were particularly disadvantaged. As countries switch to antimalarial combination therapy, distribution must be targeted to ensure that the poorest groups fully benefit from these new and highly effective medicines.