Two novel human coronavirus OC43 genotypes circulating in hospitalized children with pneumonia in China.

HCoV-OC43 is one of the mildly pathogenic coronaviruses with high infection rates in common population. Here, 43 HCoV-OC43 related cases with pneumonia were reported, corresponding genomes of HCoV-OC43 were obtained. Phylogenetic analyses based on complete genome, orf1ab and spike genes revealed that two novel genotypes of HCoV-OC43 have emerged in China. Obvious recombinant events also can be detected in the analysis of the evolutionary dynamics of novel HCoV-OC43 genotypes. Estimated divergence time analysis indicated that the two novel genotypes had apparently independent evolutionary routes. Efforts should be conducted for further investigation of genomic diversity and evolution analysis of mildly pathogenic coronaviruses.

Clinical Characteristics and Risk Factors for Fatality and Severity in Patients with Coronavirus Disease in Korea: A Nationwide Population-Based Retrospective Study Using the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA) Database.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to investigate the clinical characteristics and risk factors for fatality and severity in these patients. METHODS: In this nationwide population-based retrospective study, we investigated the data of 7339 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients, aged ≥ 18 years, using the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA) database. Comorbidities and medications used were identified using HIRA codes, and severe COVID-19 was defined as that requiring oxygen therapy, mechanical ventilator, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. The outcomes were death due to COVID-19 and COVID-19 severity. RESULTS: Mean patient age was 47.1 years; 2970 (40.1%) patients were male. Lopinavir/ritonavir, hydroxychloroquine, antibiotics, ribavirin, oseltamivir, and interferon were administered to 35.8%, 28.4%, 38.1%, 0.1%, 0.3%, and 0.9% of patients, respectively. After adjusting for confounding factors, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, previous history of pneumonia, aging, and male were significantly associated with increased risk of death and severe disease. No medication was associated with a reduced risk of fatality and disease severity. CONCLUSIONS: We found several risk factors for fatality and severity in COVID-19 patients. As the drugs currently used for COVID-19 treatment have not shown significant efficacy, all efforts should be made to develop effective therapeutic modalities for COVID-19.

Association of poor housing conditions with COVID-19 incidence and mortality across US counties.

OBJECTIVE: Poor housing conditions have been linked with worse health outcomes and infectious disease spread. Since the relationship of poor housing conditions with incidence and mortality of COVID-19 is unknown, we investigated the association between poor housing condition and COVID-19 incidence and mortality in US counties. METHODS: We conducted cross-sectional analysis of county-level data from the US Centers for Disease Control, US Census Bureau and John Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center for 3135 US counties. The exposure of interest was percentage of households with poor housing conditions (one or greater of: overcrowding, high housing cost, incomplete kitchen facilities, or incomplete plumbing facilities). Outcomes were incidence rate ratios (IRR) and mortality rate ratios (MRR) of COVID-19 across US counties through 4/21/2020. Multilevel generalized linear modeling (with total population of each county as a denominator) was utilized to estimate relative risk of incidence and mortality related to poor housing conditions with adjustment for population density and county characteristics including demographics, income, education, prevalence of medical comorbidities, access to healthcare insurance and emergency rooms, and state-level COVID-19 test density. We report incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and mortality ratios (MRRs) for a 5% increase in prevalence in households with poor housing conditions. RESULTS: Across 3135 US counties, the mean percentage of households with poor housing conditions was 14.2% (range 2.7% to 60.2%). On April 21st, the mean (SD) number of cases and deaths of COVID-19 were 255.68 (2877.03) cases and 13.90 (272.22) deaths per county, respectively. In the adjusted models standardized by county population, with each 5% increase in percent households with poor housing conditions, there was a 50% higher risk of COVID-19 incidence (IRR 1.50, 95% CI: 1.38-1.62) and a 42% higher risk of COVID-19 mortality (MRR 1.42, 95% CI: 1.25-1.61). Results remained similar using earlier timepoints (3/31/2020 and 4/10/2020). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Counties with a higher percentage of households with poor housing had higher incidence of, and mortality associated with, COVID-19. These findings suggest targeted health policies to support individuals living in poor housing conditions should be considered in further efforts to mitigate adverse outcomes associated with COVID-19.

Can Tracking Data Help in Assessing Interpersonal Contact Exposure in Team Sports during the COVID-19 Pandemic?

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the temporary closure of physical activity and sports facilities, and the generalized cancellation or postponement of sports events have a massive impact on social and economic development. In this study, we explored the feasibility of using tracking data from a football match to assess interpersonal contact between individuals by calculating two measures of respiratory exposure. The dynamic tracking positioning of all players and referees during one international football match was analyzed. For each individual, two measures of respiratory exposure were calculated, based on the 2 m interpersonal distance recommendations for contact tracing for COVID-19 control. Overall, individuals spent a median of 0.12 mm:ss (IQR = 0.45 mm:ss) exposed to interpersonal contact of fewer than 2 m from others. The highest value of exposure was observed between two players of opposing teams (6.35 mm:ss). The results suggest that tracking data can be used to assess respiratory exposure to interpersonal contact in team sports, such as football. The measures of exposure calculated can be used to the prompt identification of high-risk contacts of COVID-19 cases during a match or a training session, but also the risk stratification of different sports and physical activities.

Rapid assessment of psychological and epidemiological correlates of COVID-19 concern, financial strain, and health-related behavior change in a large online sample.

COVID-19 emerged in November 2019 leading to a global pandemic that has not only resulted in widespread medical complications and loss of life, but has also impacted global economies and transformed daily life. The current rapid response study in a convenience online sample quickly recruited 2,065 participants across the United States, Canada, and Europe in late March and early April 2020. Cross-sectional findings indicated elevated anxiety and depressive symptoms compared to historical norms, which were positively associated with COVID-19 concern more strongly than epidemiological data signifying risk (e.g., world and country confirmed cases). Employment loss was positively associated with greater depressive symptoms and COVID-19 concern, and depressive symptoms and COVID-19 concern were significantly associated with more stringent self-quarantine behavior. The rapid collection of data during the early phase of this pandemic is limited by under-representation of non-White and middle age and older adults. Nevertheless, these findings have implications for interventions to slow the spread of COVID-19 infection.

Predictors of mental health during the Covid-19 pandemic in the US: Role of economic concerns, health worries and social distancing.

Despite the profound health and economic implications of Covid-19, there is only limited knowledge to date about the role of economic concerns, health worries and social distancing for mental health outcomes during the pandemic. We analyze online survey data from the nationally representative "Understanding America Study" (UAS) covering the period of March 10-31st 2020 (sample size: 6,585). Mental health is assessed by the validated PHQ-4 instrument for measuring symptoms of depression and anxiety. About 29% (CI:27.4-.30.4%) of the US adult population reported some depression/anxiety symptoms over the study period, with symptoms deteriorating over the month of March. Worsening mental health was most strongly associated with concerns about the economic consequences of the pandemic, while concerns about the potential implications of the virus for respondents' own health and social distancing also predicted increases in symptoms of depression and anxiety during the early stages of the pandemic in the US, albeit less strongly. Our findings point towards the possibility of a major mental health crisis unfolding simultaneously with the pandemic, with economic concerns being a key driving force of this crisis. These results highlight the likely importance of economic countermeasures and social policy for mitigating the impact of Covid-19 on adult mental health in the US over and above an effective public health response.

The COVID-19 Social Monitor longitudinal online panel: Real-time monitoring of social and public health consequences of the COVID-19 emergency in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic challenges societies in unknown ways, and individuals experience a substantial change in their daily lives and activities. Our study aims to describe these changes using population-based self-reported data about social and health behavior in a random sample of the Swiss population during the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of the present article is two-fold: First, we want to describe the study methodology. Second, we want to report participant characteristics and study findings of the first survey wave to provide some baseline results for our study. METHODS: Our study design is a longitudinal online panel of a random sample of the Swiss population. We measure outcome indicators covering general well-being, physical and mental health, social support, healthcare use and working state over multiple survey waves. RESULTS: From 8,174 contacted individuals, 2,026 individuals participated in the first survey wave which corresponds to a response rate of 24.8%. Most survey participants reported a good to very good general life satisfaction (93.3%). 41.4% of the participants reported a worsened quality of life compared to before the COVID-19 emergency and 9.8% feelings of loneliness. DISCUSSION: The COVID-19 Social Monitor is a population-based online survey which informs the public, health authorities, and the scientific community about relevant aspects and potential changes in social and health behavior during the COVID-19 emergency and beyond. Future research will follow up on the described study population focusing on COVID-19 relevant topics such as subgroup differences in the impact of the pandemic on well-being and quality of life or different dynamics of perceived psychological distress.

The efficacy assessment of convalescent plasma therapy for COVID-19 patients: a multi-center case series.

Convalescent plasma (CP) transfusion has been indicated as a promising therapy in the treatment for other emerging viral infections. However, the quality control of CP and individual variation in patients in different studies make it rather difficult to evaluate the efficacy and risk of CP therapy for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We aimed to explore the potential efficacy of CP therapy, and to assess the possible factors associated with its efficacy. We enrolled eight critical or severe COVID-19 patients from four centers. Each patient was transfused with 200-400 mL of CP from seven recovered donors. The primary indicators for clinical efficacy assessment were the changes of clinical symptoms, laboratory parameters, and radiological image after CP transfusion. CP donors had a wide range of antibody levels measured by serology tests which were to some degree correlated with the neutralizing antibody (NAb) level. No adverse events were observed during and after CP transfusion. Following CP transfusion, six out of eight patients showed improved oxygen support status; chest CT indicated varying degrees of absorption of pulmonary lesions in six patients within 8 days; the viral load was decreased to a negative level in five patients who had the previous viremia; other laboratory parameters also tended to improve, including increased lymphocyte counts, decreased C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and indicators for liver function. The clinical efficacy might be associated with CP transfusion time, transfused dose, and the NAb levels of CP. This study indicated that CP might be a potential therapy for severe patients with COVID-19.

Cost-effectiveness and return on investment of protecting health workers in low- and middle-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: In this paper, we predict the health and economic consequences of immediate investment in personal protective equipment (PPE) for health care workers (HCWs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: To account for health consequences, we estimated mortality for HCWs and present a cost-effectiveness and return on investment (ROI) analysis using a decision-analytic model with Bayesian multivariate sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Data sources included inputs from the World Health Organization Essential Supplies Forecasting Tool and the Imperial College of London epidemiologic model. RESULTS: An investment of $9.6 billion USD would adequately protect HCWs in all LMICs. This intervention would save 2,299,543 lives across LMICs, costing $59 USD per HCW case averted and $4,309 USD per HCW life saved. The societal ROI would be $755.3 billion USD, the equivalent of a 7,932% return. Regional and national estimates are also presented. DISCUSSION: In scenarios where PPE remains scarce, 70-100% of HCWs will get infected, irrespective of nationwide social distancing policies. Maintaining HCW infection rates below 10% and mortality below 1% requires inclusion of a PPE scale-up strategy as part of the pandemic response. In conclusion, wide-scale procurement and distribution of PPE for LMICs is an essential strategy to prevent widespread HCW morbidity and mortality. It is cost-effective and yields a large downstream return on investment.

The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

This study quantifies the economic effect of a possible lockdown of Tokyo to prevent the spread of COVID-19. The negative effect of such a lockdown may propagate to other regions through supply chains because of supply and demand shortages. Applying an agent-based model to the actual supply chains of nearly 1.6 million firms in Japan, we simulate what would happen to production activities outside Tokyo if production activities that are not essential to citizens' survival in Tokyo were shut down for a certain period. We find that if Tokyo were locked down for a month, the indirect effect on other regions would be twice as large as the direct effect on Tokyo, leading to a total production loss of 27 trillion yen in Japan or 5.2% of the country's annual GDP. Although the production that would be shut down in Tokyo accounts for 21% of the total production in Japan, the lockdown would result in an 86% reduction of the daily production in Japan after one month.

To defer or not to defer? A German longitudinal multicentric assessment of clinical practice in urology during the COVID-19 pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: After the outbreak of COVID-19 unprecedented changes in the healthcare systems worldwide were necessary resulting in a reduction of urological capacities with postponements of consultations and surgeries. MATERIAL AND METHODS: An email was sent to 66 urological hospitals with focus on robotic surgery (RS) including a link to a questionnaire (e.g. bed/staff capacity, surgical caseload, protection measures during RS) that covered three time points: a representative baseline week prior to COVID-19, the week of March 16th-22nd and April 20th-26th 2020. The results were evaluated using descriptive analyses. RESULTS: 27 out of 66 questionnaires were analyzed (response rate: 41%). We found a decrease of 11% in hospital beds and 25% in OR capacity with equal reductions for endourological, open and robotic procedures. Primary surgical treatment of urolithiasis and benign prostate syndrome (BPS) but also of testicular and penile cancer dropped by at least 50% while the decrease of surgeries for prostate, renal and urothelial cancer (TUR-B and cystectomies) ranged from 15 to 37%. The use of personal protection equipment (PPE), screening of staff and patients and protection during RS was unevenly distributed in the different centers-however, the number of COVID-19 patients and urologists did not reach double digits. CONCLUSION: The German urological landscape has changed since the outbreak of COVID-19 with a significant shift of high priority surgeries but also continuation of elective surgical treatments. While screening and staff protection is employed heterogeneously, the number of infected German urologists stays low.

COVID-19 pandemics modeling with modified determinist SEIR, social distancing, and age stratification. The effect of vertical confinement and release in Brazil.

The ongoing COVID-19 epidemics poses a particular challenge to low and middle income countries, making some of them consider the strategy of "vertical confinement". In this strategy, contact is reduced only to specific groups (e.g. age groups) that are at increased risk of severe disease following SARS-CoV-2 infection. We aim to assess the feasibility of this scenario as an exit strategy for the current lockdown in terms of its ability to keep the number of cases under the health care system capacity. We developed a modified SEIR model, including confinement, asymptomatic transmission, quarantine and hospitalization. The population is subdivided into 9 age groups, resulting in a system of 72 coupled nonlinear differential equations. The rate of transmission is dynamic and derived from the observed delayed fatality rate; the parameters of the epidemics are derived with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We used Brazil as an example of middle income country, but the results are easily generalizable to other countries considering a similar strategy. We find that starting from 60% horizontal confinement, an exit strategy on May 1st of confinement of individuals older than 60 years old and full release of the younger population results in 400 000 hospitalizations, 50 000 ICU cases, and 120 000 deaths in the 50-60 years old age group alone. Sensitivity analysis shows the 95% confidence interval brackets a order of magnitude in cases or three weeks in time. The health care system avoids collapse if the 50-60 years old are also confined, but our model assumes an idealized lockdown where the confined are perfectly insulated from contamination, so our numbers are a conservative lower bound. Our results discourage confinement by age as an exit strategy.

Course of the first month of the COVID 19 outbreak in the New York State counties.

We illustrate and study the evolution of reported infections over the month of March in New York State as a whole, as well as in each individual county in the state. We identify piecewise exponential trends, and search for correlations between the timing and dynamics of these trends and statewide mandated measures on testing and social distancing. We conclude that the reports on April 1 may be dramatically under-representing the actual number of statewide infections, an idea which is supported by more recent retroactive estimates based on serological studies. A follow-up study is underway, reassessing data until June 1, using additional measures for validation and monitoring for effects of the PAUSE directive, and of the reopening timeline.

Acute pancreatitis and nosocomial COVID-19: Cause specific host responses may determine lung injury.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) presents with myriad extra-pulmonary manifestation and a high mortality in patients with comorbidities. Its effect on patients with pre-existing acute pancreatitis is not known. METHODS: We hereby, present 3 cases with severe acute pancreatitis with persistent respiratory failure who acquired nosocomial COVID-19 during their hospital stay after recovery from respiratory failure. Their clinical course is highlighted which reflects on pathophysiology of organ dysfunction in these 2 disease states. RESULTS: None of the 3 patients with severe acute pancreatitis who developed nosocomial COVID-19 redeveloped respiratory failure due to COVID-19 despite having recently recovered from pancreatitis induced acute hypoxemic respiratory failure. Only one patient developed SARS-CoV2 induced moderate pneumonia. CONCLUSION: These cases highlight that host responses and mechanisms of lung injury might be different in severe acute pancreatitis and COVID-19.

Current Ultrasound Technologies and Instrumentation in the Assessment and Monitoring of COVID-19 Positive Patients.

Since the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in December of 2019, clinicians and scientists all over the world have faced overwhelming new challenges that not only threaten their own communities and countries but also the world at large. These challenges have been enormous and debilitating, as the infrastructure of many countries, including developing ones, had little or no resources to deal with the crisis. Even in developed countries, such as Italy, health systems have been so inundated by cases that health care facilities became oversaturated and could not accommodate the unexpected influx of patients to be tested. Initially, resources were focused on testing to identify those who were infected. When it became clear that the virus mainly attacks the lungs by causing parenchymal changes in the form of multifocal pneumonia of different levels of severity, imaging became paramount in the assessment of disease severity, progression, and even response to treatment. As a result, there was a need to establish protocols for imaging of the lungs in these patients. In North America, the focus was on chest X-ray and computed tomography (CT) as these are widely available and accessible at most health facilities. However, in Europe and China, this was not the case, and a cost-effective and relatively fast imaging modality was needed to scan a large number of sick patients promptly. Hence, ultrasound (US) found its way into the hands of Chinese and European physicians and has since become an important imaging modality in those locations. US is a highly versatile, portable, and inexpensive imaging modality that has application across a broad spectrum of conditions and, in this way, is ideally suited to assess the lungs of COVID-19 patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). This bedside test can be done with little to no movement of the patients from the unit that keeps them in their isolated rooms, thereby limiting further exposure to other health personnel. This article presents a basic introduction to COVID-19 and the use of the US for lung imaging. It further provides a high-level overview of the existing US technologies that are driving development in current and potential future US imaging systems for lung, with a specific emphasis on portable and 3-D systems.

A novel Monte Carlo simulation procedure for modelling COVID-19 spread over time.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has now spread throughout most countries in the world causing heavy life losses and damaging social-economic impacts. Following a stochastic point process modelling approach, a Monte Carlo simulation model was developed to represent the COVID-19 spread dynamics. First, we examined various expected performances (theoretical properties) of the simulation model assuming a number of arbitrarily defined scenarios. Simulation studies were then performed on the real COVID-19 data reported (over the period of 1 March to 1 May) for Australia and United Kingdom (UK). Given the initial number of COVID-19 infection active cases were around 10 for both countries, the model estimated that the number of active cases would peak around 29 March in Australia (≈ 1,700 cases) and around 22 April in UK (≈ 22,860 cases); ultimately the total confirmed cases could sum to 6,790 for Australia in about 75 days and 206,480 for UK in about 105 days. The results of the estimated COVID-19 reproduction numbers were consistent with what was reported in the literature. This simulation model was considered an effective and adaptable decision making/what-if analysis tool in battling COVID-19 in the immediate need, and for modelling any other infectious diseases in the future.

In Vivo Assessment of Lung Ultrasound Features Mimicking Viral Pneumonia Using a Large Animal Model.

Lung ultrasound (LUS) is a practical tool for lung diagnosis when computer tomography (CT) is not available. Recent findings suggest that LUS diagnosis is highly advantageous because of its mobility and correlation with radiological findings for viral pneumonia. Simple models for both educational evaluation and technical evaluation are needed. Therefore, this work investigates the usability of a large animal model under aspects of LUS features of viral pneumonia using saline one lung flooding. Six pigs were intubated with a double-lumen tube, and the left lung was instilled with saline. During the instillation of up to 12.5 ml/kg, the sonographic features were assessed. All features present during viral pneumonia were found, such as B-lines, white lung syndrome, pleural thickening, and the formation of pleural consolidations. Sonographic findings correlate well with current LUS scores for COVID19. The scores of 1, 2, and 3 were dominantly present at 1-4-, 4-8-, and 8-12-ml/kg saline instillation, respectively. The noninfective animal model can be used for further investigation of the LUS features and can serve in education, by helping with the appropriate handling of LUS in clinical practice during management of viral pneumonia.

Risk factors for severe illness in hospitalized Covid-19 patients at a regional hospital.

BACKGROUND: The Covid-19 pandemic threatens to overwhelm scarce clinical resources. Risk factors for severe illness must be identified to make efficient resource allocations. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate risk factors for severe illness. DESIGN: Retrospective, observational case series. SETTING: Single-institution. PARTICIPANTS: First 117 consecutive patients hospitalized for Covid-19 from March 1 to April 12, 2020. EXPOSURE: None. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Intensive care unit admission or death. RESULTS: In-hospital mortality was 24.8% and average total length of stay was 11.82 days (95% CI: 10.01 to 13.63 days). 30.8% of patients required intensive care unit admission and 29.1% required mechanical ventilation. Multivariate regression identified the amount of supplemental oxygen required at admission (OR: 1.208, 95% CI: 1.011-1.443, p = .037), sputum production (OR: 6.734, 95% CI: 1.630-27.812, p = .008), insulin dependent diabetes mellitus (OR: 11.873, 95% CI: 2.218-63.555, p = .004) and chronic kidney disease (OR: 4.793, 95% CI: 1.528-15.037, p = .007) as significant risk factors for intensive care unit admission or death. Of the 48 patients who were admitted to the intensive care unit or died, this occurred within 3 days of arrival in 42%, within 6 days in 71%, and within 9 days in 88% of patients. CONCLUSIONS: At our regional medical center, patients with Covid-19 had an average length of stay just under 12 days, required ICU care in 31% of cases, and had a 25% mortality rate. Patients with increased sputum production and higher supplemental oxygen requirements at admission, and insulin dependent diabetes or chronic kidney disease may be at increased risk for severe illness. A model for predicting intensive care unit admission or death with excellent discrimination was created that may aid in treatment decisions and resource allocation. Early identification of patients at increased risk for severe illness may lead to improved outcomes in patients hospitalized with Covid-19.

Dynamic CT assessment of disease change and prognosis of patients with moderate COVID-19 pneumonia.

OBJECTIVES: To assess prognosis or dynamic change from initial diagnosis until recovery of the patients with moderate coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pneumonia using chest CT images. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this retrospective study, 33 patients (18 men, 15 women; median age, 49.0 years) with confirmed with moderate COVID-19 pneumonia in a multicenter hospital were included. The patients underwent at least four chest non-contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) scans at approximately 5-day intervals. We analyzed the clinical and CT characteristics of the patients. Moreover, the total CT score and the sum of lung involvement were determined for every CT scan. RESULTS: The most widespread presenting symptoms were fever (32/33, 97.0%) and cough (17/33, 51.5%), which were often accompanied by decreased lymphocyte count (15/33, 45.5%) and increased C-reactive protein levels (18/33, 54.6%). Bilateral, multifocal ground glass opacities (32/33, 97.0%), consolidation (25/33, 75.8%), vascular thickening (23/33, 69.7%), and bronchial wall thickening (21/33, 63.6%) with peripheral distribution were the most frequent CT findings during moderate COVID-19 pneumonia. In patients recovering from moderate COVID-19 pneumonia, four stages (stages 1-4) of evolution were identified on chest CT with average CT scores of 3.4±2.3, 6.0±4.4, 5.6±3.8, and 4.9±3.2, respectively, from the onset of symptoms. For most patients, the peak of average total CT score increased for approximately 8 days after the onset of symptoms, after which it decreased gradually. The mean CT score of all patients was 4.7 at the time of discharge. CONCLUSION: The moderate COVID-19 pneumonia CT score increased rapidly in a short period of time initially, followed by a slow decline over a relatively long time. The peak of the course occurred in stage 2. Complete recovery of patients with moderate COVID-19 pneumonia with high mean CT score at the time of discharge requires longer time.