Application of qualitative and quantitative uncertainty assessment tools in developing ranges of plausible toxicity values for 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin.

Increasing interest in characterizing risk assessment uncertainty is highlighted by recent recommendations from the National Academy of Sciences. In this paper we demonstrate the utility of applying qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing uncertainty to enhance risk-based decision-making for 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin. The approach involved deconstructing the reference dose (RfD) via evaluation of the different assumptions, options, models and methods associated with derivation of the value, culminating in the development of a plausible range of potential values based on such areas of uncertainty. The results demonstrate that overall RfD uncertainty was high based on limitations in the process for selection (e.g., compliance with inclusion criteria related to internal validity of the co-critical studies, consistency with other studies), external validity (e.g., generalizing findings of acute, high-dose exposure scenarios to the general population), and selection and classification of the point of departure using data from the individual studies (e.g., lack of statistical and clinical significance). Building on sensitivity analyses conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency in 2012, the resulting estimates of RfD values that account for the uncertainties ranged from ~1.5 to 179 pg/kg/day. It is anticipated that the range of RfDs presented herein, along with the characterization of uncertainties, will improve risk assessments of dioxins and provide important information to risk managers, because reliance on a single toxicity value limits the information needed for making decisions and gives a false sense of precision and accuracy.

Explaining variation in elevated blood lead levels among children in Minnesota using neighborhood socioeconomic variables.

BACKGROUND: Childhood lead exposure is linked to numerous adverse health effects and exposure in the United States is highest among people living in substandard housing, which is disproportionately inhabited by socioeconomically disadvantaged individuals. In this paper, we compared the Vox lead exposure risk score and concentrated disadvantage based on principal component analysis (PCA) to weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression to determine which method was best able to explain variation in elevated blood lead levels (EBLLs). METHODS: We constructed indices for census tracts in Minnesota and used them in Poisson regression models to identify the best socioeconomic measure for explaining EBLL risk. RESULTS: All indices had a significant association with EBLL in separate models. The WQS index had the best goodness-of-fit, followed next by the Vox index, and then the concentrated disadvantage index. Among the most important variables in the WQS index were percent of houses built before 1940, percent renter occupied housing, percent unemployed, and percent African American population. CONCLUSIONS: The WQS approach was best able to explain variation in EBLL risk and identify census tracts where targeted interventions should be focused to reduce lead exposure.

Developing Product Environmental Footprint Category Rules (PEFCR) for shampoos: The basis for comparable life cycle assessment.

In 2013, the European Commission launched the Environmental Footprint Rules pilot phase. This initiative aims at setting specific rules for life cycle assessment (LCA: raw material sourcing, production, logistics, use, and disposal phase) studies within 1 product category, called product environmental footprint category rules (PEFCR), and for organizations, called organizational environmental footprint sector rules (OEFSR). Such specific rules for measuring environmental performance throughout the life cycle should facilitate the comparability between LCA studies and provide principles for communicating environmental performance, such as transparency, reliability, completeness, and clarity. Cosmetics Europe, the association representing the cosmetics industry in the European Union, completed a voluntary study into the development of PEFCR for shampoo, generally following the guidelines and methodology developed by the European Commission for its own pilot projects. The study assessed the feasibility and relevance of establishing PEFCR for shampoo. Specifically, the study defines a large number of modeling assumptions and default values relevant for shampoo (e.g., for the functional unit, the system boundaries, default transport distances, rinsing water volumes, temperature differences, life cycle inventory data sources) that can be modified as appropriate, according to the specificities of individual products, manufacturing companies, and countries. The results of the study may be used to support internal decision making (e.g., to identify "hotspots" with high environmental impact and opportunities for improvement) or to meet information requests from commercial partners, consumers, media, or authorities on product environmental characteristics. In addition, the shampoo study also highlighted many of the challenges and limitations of the current product environmental footprint (PEF) methodology, namely its complexity and resource intensiveness. It highlighted 2 areas where improvements are much needed: (1) data quality and availability, and (2) impact assessment methodologies and robustness. Many of the findings are applicable to other rinse-off cosmetic products, such as shower gels, liquid soaps, bath products, and hair conditioners. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:649-659. © 2018 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Decision-Making and Environmental Implications under Cap-and-Trade and Take-Back Regulations.

To reduce carbon emissions during production and realize the recycling of resources, the government has promulgated carbon cap-and-trade regulation and take-back regulation separately. This paper firstly analyses the manufacturing, remanufacturing and collection decisions of a monopoly manufacturer under cap-and-trade regulation and take-back regulation conditions, and then explores the environmental impact (i.e., carbon emissions) of both carbon regulation and more stringent take-back regulation. Finally, numerical examples are provided to illustrate the theoretical results. The results indicate that it will do good for the environment once the cap-and-trade regulation is carried out. We also conclude that government’s supervision of carbon trading price plays an important role in reducing the environmental impact. Furthermore, unexpectedly, we prove that if emissions intensity of a remanufactured (vis-á-vis new) product is sufficiently high, the improvement of collection and remanufacturing targets might lead to the deterioration of environment.

Anatomy of a decision II: Potential effects of changes to Tier I chemical approaches in Canadian Disposal at Sea program sediment assessment protocols.

The effects of possible changes to the Canadian 2-tiered assessment framework for dredged material based on outcomes of the 2006 Contaminated Dredged Material Management Decisions Workshop (CDMMD) are evaluated. Expanding on the "data mining" approach described in a previous paper, which focused solely on chemical lines of evidence, the efficacy of Tier 1 approaches (increases to the number of chemical analytes, use of mean hazard quotients, and the use of a screening bioassay) in predicting toxicity are evaluated. Results suggest value in additional work to evaluate the following areas: 1) further expanding minimum chemical requirements, 2) using more advanced approaches for chemical interpretation, and 3) using a screening-level bioassay (e.g., Canadian solid-phase photoluminescent bacteria test) to determine whether it would complement Tier 1 chemistry as well as or better than the solvent-based Microtox™ test method evaluated in the present study. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:1072-1085. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Towards a proportionality assessment of risk reduction measures aimed at restricting the use of persistent and bioaccumulative substances.

International chemicals legislation aims at adequately controlling persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and substances of very high concern (SVHCs), such as persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic (PBT) and very persistent and very bioaccumulative (vPvB) substances, with a view to progressively substitute these substances with suitable less-hazardous alternatives. Using cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) to assess the (dis)proportionality of measures to control such substances (collectively called "PBT" in the present paper) requires benchmarks. The present paper provides building blocks for possible benchmarks by looking at the cost-effectiveness estimates for regulatory measures that have been applied or considered for various PBT substances. These cost-effectiveness estimates vary widely, and the main factors possibly explaining this variation are discussed. The available cost estimates currently do not allow deriving a value for society's willingness to pay to reduce PBT presence, use, and emissions because decisions referring explicitly to these estimates are scarce. Roughly speaking, the available evidence suggests that measures costing less than €1000 per kilogram PBT use or emission reduction will usually not be rejected for reasons of disproportionate costs, whereas for measures with costs above €50 000 per kilogram PBT such a rejection is likely. More research is needed to strengthen the evidence base and further elaborate a systematic approach toward proportionality benchmarking. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:1100-1112. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

New approach to weight-of-evidence assessment of ecotoxicological effects in regulatory decision-making.

Ecological risk assessments and risk management decisions are only as sound as the underlying information and processes to integrate them. It is important to develop transparent and reproducible procedures a priori to integrate often-heterogeneous evidence. Current weight-of-evidence (WoE) approaches for effects or hazard assessment tend to conflate aspects of the assessment of the quality of the data with the strength of the body of evidence as a whole. We take forward recent developments in the critical appraisal of the reliability and relevance of individual ecotoxicological studies as part of the effect or hazard assessment of prospective risk assessments and propose a streamlined WoE approach. The aim is to avoid overlap and double accounting of criteria used in reliability and relevance with that used in current WoE methods. The protection goals, problem formulation, and evaluation process need to be clarified at the outset. The data are first integrated according to lines of evidence (LoEs), typically mechanistic insights (e.g., cellular, subcellular, genomic), in vivo experiments, and higher-tiered field or observational studies. Data are then plotted on the basis of both relevance and reliability scores or categories. This graphical approach provides a means to visually assess and communicate the credibility (reliability and relevance of available individual studies), quantity, diversity, and consistency of the evidence. In addition, the external coherence of the body of evidence needs to be considered. The final step in the process is to derive an expression of the confidence in the conclusions of integrating the information considering these 5 aspects in the context of remaining uncertainties. We suggest that this streamlined approach to WoE for the effects or hazard characterization should facilitate reproducible and transparent assessments of data across different regulatory requirements. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:573-579. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Population-relevant endpoints in the evaluation of endocrine-active substances (EAS) for ecotoxicological hazard and risk assessment.

For ecotoxicological risk assessment, endocrine disruptors require the establishment of an endocrine mode of action (MoA) with a plausible link to a population-relevant adverse effect. Current ecotoxicity test methods incorporate mostly apical endpoints although some also include mechanistic endpoints, subcellular-through-organ level, which can help establish an endocrine MoA. However, the link between these endpoints and adverse population-level effects is often unclear. The case studies of endocrine-active substances (EAS) (tributyltin, ethinylestradiol, perchlorate, trenbolone, propiconazole, and vinclozolin) evaluated from the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) Pellston Workshop® "Ecotoxicological Hazard and Risk Assessment Approaches for Endocrine-Active Substances (EHRA)" were used to evaluate the population relevance of toxicity endpoints in various taxa according to regulatory endocrine-disruptor frameworks such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Conceptual Framework for Testing and Assessment of Endocrine Disruptors. A wide variety of potentially endocrine-relevant endpoints were identified for mollusks, fish, amphibians, birds, and mammals, although the strength of the relationship between test endpoints and population-level effects was often uncertain. Furthermore, testing alone is insufficient for assessing potential adaptation and recovery processes in exposed populations. For this purpose, models that link effects observed in laboratory tests to the dynamics of wildlife populations appear to be necessary, and their development requires reliable and robust data. As our understanding of endocrine perturbations and key event relationships improves, adverse population-level effects will be more easily and accurately predicted. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:317-330. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Requirements for Notification, Evaluation and Reduction of Lead-Based Paint Hazards in Federally Owned Residential Property and Housing Receiving Federal Assistance; Response to Elevated Blood Lead Levels. Final rule.

This final rule amends HUD's lead-based paint regulations to reduce blood lead levels in children under age six (6) who reside in federally-owned or -assisted pre-1978 housing, formally adopting a revised definition of "elevated blood lead level" (EBLL) in children under the age of six (6), in accordance with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidance. It also establishes more comprehensive testing and evaluation procedures for the housing where such children reside. This final rule also addresses certain additional elements of the CDC guidance pertaining to assisted housing and makes technical corrections and clarifications. This final rule, which follows HUD's September 1, 2016, proposed rule, takes into consideration public comments submitted in response to the proposed rule.

[Actual problem of methodology and development of evidence-based health risk assessment associated with chemical exposure].

Paramount problems of the development of the assessment of population health risks associated with the chemical exposure in Russia are considered on the ground of critical analysis of reports devoted to methodological issues of the risk assessment and guidelines published since 2010. Causes of the lack in progress of risk assessment are discussed. The information of executed research revealed the significant retardation number of Russian publications devoted to the evidence-based health risk assessment compare to worldwide trend. The analysis of publications according to evidence-based health risk assessment in Russia in 1998 - 2012 demonstrated methodical problems to be leading to the underestimation of the real risk to population's health. There are demonstrated directions in the renewal of methodology and practice of hygienic standardization on the basis of the risk assessment. The comparative analysis of values of uncertainty factors (modifying factors, conversion factors) used for extrapolation and accepted in different countries and organizations was made. The system of extrapolation coefficients of DNEL (Derive No-Effect Level) is presented. The leading principles of modern toxicology and risk assessment based on strict scientific proofs are showed. Criteria of evidence-based toxicology and risk assessment are presented.Among actual problems which demand their decision there are considered: the assessment of combined action in regulatory toxicology; expansion of spheres of the application of health risk assessment methodology; the improvement ofpreparation and certification of experts in the field of health risk assessment; need of check of dispersion models and their replacement by more modern models; the improvement of exposure assessment with taking into account the international requirements; the assessment of regional exposure factors; expansion of atmospheric air monitoring in all the large cities of Russia.

Should the scope of human mixture risk assessment span legislative/regulatory silos for chemicals?

Current chemicals regulation operates almost exclusively on a chemical-by-chemical basis, however there is concern that this approach may not be sufficiently protective if two or more chemicals have the same toxic effect. Humans are indisputably exposed to more than one chemical at a time, for example to the multiple chemicals found in food, air and drinking water, and in household and consumer products, and in cosmetics. Assessment of cumulative risk to human health and/or the environment from multiple chemicals and routes can be done in a mixture risk assessment (MRA). Whilst there is a broad consensus on the basic science of mixture toxicology, the path to regulatory implementation of MRA within chemical risk assessment is less clear. In this discussion piece we pose an open question: should the scope of human MRA cross legislative remits or 'silos'? We define silos as, for instance, legislation that defines risk assessment practice for a subset of chemicals, usually on the basis of substance/product, media or process orientation. Currently any form of legal mandate for human MRA in the EU is limited to only a few pieces of legislation. We describe two lines of evidence, illustrated with selected examples, that are particularly pertinent to this question: 1) evidence that mixture effects have been shown for chemicals regulated in different silos and 2) evidence that humans are co-exposed to chemicals from different silos. We substantiate the position that, because there is no reason why chemicals allocated to specific regulatory silos would have non-overlapping risk profiles, then there is also no reason to expect that MRA limited only to chemicals within one silo can fully capture the risk that may be present to human consumers. Finally, we discuss possible options for implementation of MRA and we hope to prompt wider discussion of this issue.

Specific environmental release categories--A tool for improving chemical safety assessment in the EC--report of a multi-stakeholder workshop.

In April 2011, experts from industry and authorities met for a workshop to discuss experience and future developments regarding the use of specific environmental release categories (SPERCs) in chemicals safety assessment (CSA) under the European Chemicals Regulation Registration, Evaluation and Authorization of Chemicals (REACH). This article provides a summary of the workshop. It briefly explains what a SPERC is, why SPERCs are needed, where the challenges of the concept are, and what improvements are needed to make SPERCs a useful tool for assessments under REACH.

Prioritising chemicals used in personal care products in China for environmental risk assessment: application of the RAIDAR model.

China represents a significant market for the sale of personal care products (PCPs). Given the continuous emission of hundreds of chemicals used in PCPs to waste water and the aquatic environment after regular use, methods for prioritising the environmental risk assessment for China are needed. In an effort to assess the prioritisation of chemicals used in PCPs in China, we have identified the chemical ingredients used in 2500 PCPs released to the Chinese market in 2009, and estimated the annual emission of these chemicals. The physical-chemical property data for these substances have been estimated and used as model inputs in the RAIDAR model. In general, the RAIDAR model provides an overall assessment of the multimedia fate of chemicals, and provides a holistic approach for prioritising chemical ingredients. The prioritisation exercise conducted in this study is shown to be strongly influenced by loss processes, such as the removal efficiencies of WWT plants and biotransformation.

[Systematization and hygienic standardization of environmental factors on the basis of common graphic models].

On the basis of graphic models of the human response to environmental factors, two main types of complex quantitative influence as well as interrelation between determined effects at the level of an individual, and stochastic effects on population were revealed. Two main kinds of factors have been suggested to be distinguished. They are essential factors and accidental factors. The essential factors are common for environment. The accidental factors are foreign for environment. The above two kinds are different in approaches of hygienic standardization Accidental factors need a dot-like approach, whereas a two-level range approach is suitable for the essential factors.

Reporting and evaluation criteria as means towards a transparent use of ecotoxicity data for environmental risk assessment of pharmaceuticals.

Ecotoxicity data with high reliability and relevance are needed to guarantee the scientific quality of environmental risk assessments of pharmaceuticals. The main advantages of a more structured approach to data evaluation include increased transparency and predictability of the risk assessment process, and the possibility to use non-standard data. In this collaboration, between the research project MistraPharma and the German Federal Environment Agency, a new set of reporting and evaluation criteria is presented and discussed. The new criteria are based on the approaches in the literature and the OECD reporting requirements, and have been further developed to include both reliability and relevance of test data. Intended users are risk assessors and researchers performing ecotoxicological experiments, but the criteria can also be used for education purposes and in the peer-review process for scientific papers. This approach intends to bridge the gap between the regulator and the scientist's needs and way of work.

Critical analysis of literature on low-dose synergy for use in screening chemical mixtures for risk assessment.

There is increasing interest in the use of tiered approaches in risk assessment of mixtures or co-exposures to chemicals for prioritization. One possible screening-level risk assessment approach is the threshold of toxicological concern (TTC). To date, default assumptions of dose or response additivity have been used to characterize the toxicity of chemical mixtures. Before a screening-level approach could be used, it is essential to know whether synergistic interactions can occur at low, environmentally relevant exposure levels. Studies demonstrating synergism in mammalian test systems were identified from the literature, with emphasis on studies performed at doses close to the points of departure (PODs) for individual chemicals. This search identified 90 studies on mixtures. Few included quantitative estimates of low-dose synergy; calculations of the magnitude of interaction were included in only 11 papers. Quantitative methodology varied across studies in terms of the null hypothesis, response measured, POD used to test for synergy, and consideration of the slope of the dose-response curve. It was concluded that consistent approaches should be applied for quantification of synergy, including that synergy be defined in terms of departure from dose additivity; uniform procedures be developed for assessing synergy at low exposures; and the method for determining the POD for calculating synergy be standardized. After evaluation of the six studies that provided useful quantitative estimates of synergy, the magnitude of synergy at low doses did not exceed the levels predicted by additive models by more than a factor of 4.

Ecotoxicological impact assessment of heavy metals in core sediments of a tropical estuary.

Down core variation of heavy metals in three sediment cores from Cochin estuary was studied. The average concentration of iron, manganese, nickel, copper, zinc, cadmium, lead and mercury in each slices of sediment was determined. Quality of the sediments were evaluated based on sediment quality guidelines, pollution load index, and sum of toxic units and with effect range low/effect range median and threshold effect level/probable effect level values of environmental protection agency guidelines. The degree of contamination for each station was determined. The results of the study revealed higher concentration of heavy metals in surface layers than in deeper ones. The concentration of heavy metals in some stations exceeded the effect range median levels, which represents a probable effect range with in which adverse biological effects frequently occur. The spatial variation of heavy metals showed more contamination in the downstream at Pathalam industrial site. Statistical analysis showed that the correlation among different parameters differs with respect to stations. The present study highlighted severe heavy metal contamination of Cochin estuary with increased rate of deposition.

Comments on pesticide risk assessment by the revision of Directive EU 91/414.

INTRODUCTION: Human health and the environment are major concerns for European Commission policy on the authorisation of plant protection products. The new regulation that revises and replaces the directive 91/414/EC moves towards the adoption of a Persistent Bioaccumulation Toxicity cutoff criterion because current pesticide risk assessment (PRA) is deterministic, based on few standard cases and therefore characterised by uncertainty. This revision could create concerns about sustainability. DISCUSSION: This paper analyses some effects of this directive on the agrochemical market and assumes new effects resulting from the introduction of the revision. Suggestions are made as to how pesticide risk assessment will have to adapt to answer the request of legislators on safety standards and sustainability, introducing probabilistic PRA. Toxicity and exposure functions will be fully characterised, producing distributions of predicted impact and quantifying the variability and uncertainty. For adopting PRA studies at the local/catchment scale, new assessment schemes will be necessary.

Reforming state-level chemicals management policies in the United States: status, challenges, and opportunities.

During the last several years there has been increasing public concern about chemicals in everyday products. Scientific studies are increasingly revealing the build-up of some substances in ecosystems and in our bodies and new findings are linking exposures to hazardous chemicals to a range of adverse human health effects. Despite these trends, there has been little federal initiative in the United States on reforming chemicals management policies for well over two decades, even though a variety of analyses have identified significant gaps in the regulatory structure. As has historically been the case, states are beginning to fill the holes in federal leadership. This article explores this emerging state leadership and establishes a vision for and elements of policies to reduce hazardous chemicals in the products we buy and the places we go. It examines international efforts to reform chemicals management policies, such as the European REACH legislation and corporate leadership in advancing safer products. Finally, it outlines specific challenges states face in developing integrated, comprehensive chemicals management policies. We conclude that while there are plenty of challenges to implementation of chemicals policy reforms, it is a propitious time for states to become leaders in policy innovation that can help achieve safer production systems and products for future generations. This article is part of a Lowell Center for Sustainable Production report entitled "Options for State Chemicals Policy Reform" that provides in-depth analysis of the pros and cons of policy options to address a range of aspects of state-level chemicals policy reform. The article has been edited slightly for use in New Solutions. The report has been widely distributed to policy-makers, advocates, and others across the United States.