Several explorations on how to construct an early warning system for local government debt risk in China.

This paper aims to explore several ways to construct a scientific and comprehensive early warning system (EWS) for local government debt risk in China. In order to achieve this goal, this paper studies the local government debt risk from multiple perspectives, i.e., individual risk, contagion risk, static risk and dynamic risk. Firstly, taking China's 30 provinces over the period of 2010~ 2018 as a sample, this paper establishes early warning indicators for individual risk of local government debt, and uses the network model to establish early warning indicators for contagion risk of local government debt. Then, this paper applies the criteria importance though intercrieria correlation (CRITIC) method and coefficient of variation method to obtain the proxy variable Ⅰ, which combines the above two risks. Secondly, based on the proxy variable Ⅰ, both the Markov-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model and coefficient of variation method are used to obtain the proxy variable Ⅱ, which comprehensively considers the individual risk, contagion risk, static risk and dynamic risk of local government debt. Finally, machine learning algorithms are adopted to generalize the EWS designed in this paper. The results show that: (1) From different perspectives of local government debt risk, the list of provinces that require early warning is different; (2) The support vector machines can well generalize our EWS.

Engagement in local and collaborative wildfire risk mitigation planning across the western U.S.-Evaluating participation and diversity in Community Wildfire Protection Plans.

Since their introduction two decades ago, Community Wildfire Protection Plans (CWPPs) have become a common planning tool for improving community preparedness and risk mitigation in fire-prone regions, and for strengthening coordination among federal and state land management agencies, local government, and residents. While CWPPs have been the focus of case studies, there are limited large-scale studies to understand the extent of, and factors responsible for, variation in stakeholder participation-a core element of the CWPP model. This article describes the scale and scope of participation in CWPPs across the western United States. We provide a detailed account of participants in over 1,000 CWPPs in 11 states and examine how levels of participation and stakeholder diversity vary as a function of factors related to planning process, planning context, and the broader geographic context in which plans were developed. We find that CWPPs vary substantially both by count and diversity of participants and that the former varies as a function of the geographic scale of the plan, while the latter varies largely as a function of the diversity of landowners within the jurisdiction. More than half of participants represented local interests, indicating a high degree of local engagement in hazard mitigation. Surprisingly, plan participation and diversity were unrelated to wildfire hazard. These findings suggest that CWPPs have been largely successful in their intent to engage diverse stakeholders in preparing for and mitigating wildfire risk, but that important challenges remain. We discuss the implications of this work and examine how the planning process and context for CWPPs may be changing.

Prevalence of winter migration to warmer destinations among Ontarians ("snowbirds") and patterns of their use of health care services: a population-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Older Canadians frequently migrate to warmer destinations for the winter season (snowbirds). Our aim was to examine the prevalence of migration to warmer destinations among Ontarians, and to compare the characteristics and use of health care services of snowbirds to those of older Ontarians who did not migrate for the winter. METHODS: We conducted a population-based analysis using health administrative databases from Ontario. We compiled 10 seasonal cohorts (2009/10 to 2018/19) of adults aged 65 or more who filled a travel supply of medications under the Ontario Drug Benefits program (snowbirds) between September and January (snowbird season). We calculated the seasonal prevalence of snowbirds per 100 Ontarians aged 65 or more. We matched each snowbird in the 2018/19 season to 2 nonsnowbirds on age and sex, and compared their characteristics and patterns of use of government-funded health care services. RESULTS: Over the 10-year period, 53 431 to 70 863 Ontarians aged 65 or more were identified as snowbirds (seasonal prevalence 2.6%-3.3%). Compared to nonsnowbirds, snowbirds were more likely to be recent migrants, live in higher-income neighbourhoods, have fewer comorbidities and make more visits to primary care physicians. From January to March 2019, snowbirds accessed government-funded health care services for a median of 0 days (interquartile range [IQR] 0-1 d), compared to 4 days (IQR 2-8 d) among nonsnowbirds. INTERPRETATION: About 3% of older Ontarians migrate to warmer destinations for the winter each season. Since few access health care services in Ontario from January to March, researchers are encouraged to consider the snowbird population and the impact of their absence on evaluations that assume continuous observation.

Stillbirth rates, service outcomes and costs of implementing NHS England's Saving Babies' Lives care bundle in maternity units in England: A cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess implementation of the Saving Babies Lives (SBL) Care Bundle, a collection of practice recommendations in four key areas, to reduce stillbirth in England. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study of 463,630 births in 19 NHS Trusts in England using routinely collected electronic data supplemented with case note audit (n = 1,658), and surveys of service users (n = 2,085) and health care professionals (n = 1,064). The primary outcome was stillbirth rate. Outcome rates two years before and after the nominal SBL implementation date were derived as a measure of change over the implementation period. Data were collected on secondary outcomes and process outcomes which reflected implementation of the SBL care bundle. RESULTS: The total stillbirth rate, declined from 4.2 to 3.4 per 1,000 births between the two time points (adjusted Relative Risk (aRR) 0.80, 95% Confidence Interval (95% CI) 0.70 to 0.91, P<0.001). There was a contemporaneous increase in induction of labour (aRR 1.20 (95%CI 1.18-1.21), p<0.001) and emergency Caesarean section (aRR 1.10 (95%CI 1.07-1.12), p<0.001). The number of ultrasound scans performed (aRR 1.25 (95%CI 1.21-1.28), p<0.001) and the proportion of small for gestational age infants detected (aRR 1.59 (95%CI 1.32-1.92), p<0.001) also increased. Organisations reporting higher levels of implementation had improvements in process measures in all elements of the care bundle. An economic analysis estimated the cost of implementing the care bundle at ~£140 per birth. However, neither the costs nor changes in outcomes could be definitively attributed to implementation of the SBL care bundle. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of the SBL care bundle increased over time in the majority of sites. Implementation was associated with improvements in process outcomes. The reduction in stillbirth rates in participating sites exceeded that reported nationally in the same timeframe. The intervention should be refined to identify women who are most likely to benefit and minimise unwarranted intervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study was registered on (NCT03231007); www.clinicaltrials.gov.

Does the New Rural Pension Scheme improve residents' livelihoods? Empirical evidence from Northwestern China.

The sustainable development of pension systems has been investigated from a financial perspective worldwide. However, the pension adequacy and its effect on the sustainability of a national pension system are still understudied. Using actual replacement rate and modified living standards replacement rate, this study empirically evaluates whether China's New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) grants enough livelihood protection for the rural residents in the Northwestern China. The results show that the NRPS fails to meet the basic needs of the elderly people (i.e., age of sixty years or older) or the middle-aged people (forty-five to fifty-nine years old), while it only provides limited protection for the young people (sixteen to forty-four years old). These findings suggest that the current NRPS benefits are very low in the Northwestern China and policy reforms should be further implemented to improve the sustainable development of the New Rural Pension Scheme.

Mainstreaming of Health Equity in Infectious Disease Control Policy During the COVID-19 Pandemic Era.

The Korean government's strategy to combat coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has focused on non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing and wearing masks, along with testing, tracing, and treatment; overall, its performance has been relatively good compared to that of many other countries heavily affected by COVID-19. However, little attention has been paid to health equity in measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic. The study aimed to examine the unequal impacts of COVID-19 across socioeconomic groups and to suggest potential solutions to tackle these inequalities. The pathways linking social determinants and health could be entry points to tackle the unequal consequences of this public health emergency. It is crucial for infectious disease policy to consider social determinants of health including poor housing, precarious working conditions, disrupted healthcare services, and suspension of social services. Moreover, the high levels of uncertainty and complexity inherent in this public health emergency, as well as the health and socioeconomic inequalities caused by the pandemic, underscore the need for good governance other than top-down measures by the government. We emphasize that a people-centered perspective is a key approach during the pandemic era. Mutual trust between the state and civil society, strong accountability of the government, and civic participation are essential components of cooperative disaster governance.

Hybrid Organizations in Health Systems: The Corporatization of Malaysia's National Heart Institute.

Health system reforms across high- and middle-income countries often involve changes to public hospital governance. Corporatization is one such reform, in which public sector hospitals are granted greater functional independence while remaining publicly owned. In theory, this can improve public hospital efficiency, while retaining a public service ethos. However, the extent to which efficiency gains are realized and public purpose is maintained depends on policy choices about governance and payment systems. We present a case study of Malaysia's National Heart Institute (IJN), which was created in 1992 by corporatization of one department in a large public hospital. The aim of the paper is to examine whether IJN has achieved the goals for which it was created, and if so, whether it provides a potential model for further reforms in Malaysia and other similar health systems. Using a combination of document analysis and key informant interviews, we examine key governance, health financing and payment, and equity issues. For governance, we highlight the choice to have IJN owned by and answerable to a Ministry of Finance (MOF) holding company and MOF-appointed board, rather than the Ministry of Health (MOH). On financing and payment, we analyze the implications of IJN's combined role as fee-for-service provider to MOH as well as provider of care to private patients. For equity, we analyze the targeting of IJN care across publicly-referred and private patients. These issues demonstrate unresolved tensions between IJN's objectives and public service goals. As an institutional innovation that has endured for 28 years and grown dramatically in size and revenue, IJN's trajectory offers critical insights on the relevance of the hybrid public-private models for hospitals in Malaysia as well as in other middle-income countries. While IJN appears to have achieved its goal of establishing itself as a commercially viable, publicly owned center of clinical excellence in Malaysia, the value for money and equity of the services it provides to the Ministry of Health remain unclear. IJN is accountable to a small Ministry of Finance holding company, which means that detailed information required to evaluate these critical questions is not published. The case of IJN highlights that corporatization cannot achieve its stated goals of efficiency, innovation, and equity in isolation; rather it must be supported by broader reforms, including of health financing, payment, governance, and transparency, in order to ensure that autonomous hospitals improve quality and provide efficient care in an equitable way.

Are "Obstetrically Underserved Areas" really underserved? Role of a government support program in the context of changing landscape of maternal service utilization in South Korea: A sequential mixed method approach.

OBJECTIVES: The Korean government has been providing financial support to open and operate the maternal hospital in Obstetrically Underserved Areas (OUAs) since 2011. Our study aims to assess the effectiveness of the government-support program for OUAs and to suggest future directions for it. METHODS: We performed sequential-mixed method approach. Descriptive analyses and multi-level logistic regression were performed based on the 2015 Korean National Health Insurance claim data. Data for the qualitative analysis were obtained from in-depth interviews with health providers and mothers in OUAs. RESULTS: Descriptive analyses indicated that the share of babies born in the hospitals located in the area among total babies ever born from mothers residing in the area (Delivery concentration Index: DCI) was lower in government-supported OUAs than other areas. Qualitative analyses revealed that physical distance is no longer a barrier in current OUAs. Mothers travel to neighboring big cities to seek elective preferences only available at specialized maternal hospitals rather than true medical need. Increasing one-child families changed the mother's perception of pregnancy and childbirth, making them willing to pay for more expensive services. Concern about an emergency for mothers or infants, especially of high-risk mothers was also an important factor to make mothers avoid local government-supported hospitals. Adjusted multi-level logistic regression indicated that DCIs of government-supported OUAs were higher than the ones of their counterpart areas. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that current OUAs do not reflect reality. Identification of true OUAs where physical distance is a real barrier to the use of obstetric service and focused investment on them is necessary. In addition, more sophisticated performance indicator other than DCI needs to be developed.

District Governance and Improved Maternal, Neonatal and Child Health in South Africa: Pathways of Change.

District-level initiatives to improve maternal, neonatal and child health (MNCH) generally do not take governance as their primary lens on health system strengthening. This paper is a case study of a district and sub-district governance mechanism, the Monitoring and Response Unit (MRU), which aimed to improve MNCH outcomes in two districts of South Africa. The MRU was introduced as a decision-making and accountability structure, and constituted of a "triangle" of managers, clinicians and information officers. An independent evaluation of the MRU initiative was conducted, three years after establishment, involving interviews with 89 district actors. Interviewees reported extensive changes in the scope, quality and organization of MNCH services, attributing these to the introduction of the MRU and enhanced support from district clinicians. We describe both the formal and informal aspects of the MRU as a governance mechanism, and then consider the pathways through which the MRU plausibly acted as a catalyst for change, using the institutional constructs of credible commitment, coordination and cooperation. In particular, the MRU promoted the formation of non-hierarchical collaborative networks; improved coordination between community, PHC and hospital services; and shaped collective sense-making in positive ways. We conclude that innovations in governance could add significant value to the district health system strengthening for improved MNCH. However, this requires a shift in focus from strengthening the front-line of service delivery, to change at the meso-level of sub-district and district decision-making; and from purely technical, data-driven to more holistic approaches that engage collective mindsets, widen participation in decision-making and nurture political leadership skills.

Indigenous health and nursing in Roraima in the 1970s.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the strategies undertaken by the government to address the health problem in Boa Vista/Roraima. METHOD: A study using the microhistory approach, with documentary sources from journalistic material of the 1970s through the triangulation technique: texts, images and context, with analysis from the perspective of the Social World Theory. RESULTS: It was evidenced that the strategies undertaken by the government occurred in favor of the exploration of isolated areas in Roraima that demanded settlement processes, construction of villages and a highway to enable the interconnection of the state with other regions of Brazil, with a smoke screen symbolic effect produced by nurses on indigenous health. CONCLUSION: There was governmental manipulation, when the symbolic power was unveiled, making it possible to see and believe that nursing needs to guide political issues rather than being ruled.

The daily routine of nurses in rural areas in the Family Health Strategy.

OBJECTIVE: to analyze the daily work of rural Family Health Strategy (FHS) nurses. METHOD: a qualitative, descriptive and exploratory research. The data were collected with eleven rural nurses of the city of Campina Grande, Paraíba State, through semi-structured interviews, between January and March of 2017, using Content Analysis. RESULTS: rural nurses have a strong relationship with the population. However, they reveal a daily work with various organizational barriers that range from the team displacement to the workplace to the operationalization of health actions, which are mediated by the characteristics of rurality. Some of these barriers can be remedied by a more proactive action from the management. FINAL CONSIDERATIONS: conditioned by the characteristics of rurality, the differentiated dynamics work reveal weaknesses in the quality of nursing care and lower effectiveness of the FHS.

The daily routine of nurses in rural areas in the Family Health Strategy / El cotidiano de enfermeros en áreas rurales en la Estrategia Salud de la Familia / O cotidiano de enfermeiros em áreas rurais na estratégia saúde da família

ABSTRACT Objective: to analyze the daily work of rural Family Health Strategy (FHS) nurses. Method: a qualitative, descriptive and exploratory research. The data were collected with eleven rural nurses of the city of Campina Grande, Paraíba State, through semi-structured interviews, between January and March of 2017, using Content Analysis. Results: rural nurses have a strong relationship with the population. However, they reveal a daily work with various organizational barriers that range from the team displacement to the workplace to the operationalization of health actions, which are mediated by the characteristics of rurality. Some of these barriers can be remedied by a more proactive action from the management. Final considerations: conditioned by the characteristics of rurality, the differentiated dynamics work reveal weaknesses in the quality of nursing care and lower effectiveness of the FHS.

RESUMEN Objetivo: analizar el cotidiano de trabajo de enfermeros de la Estrategia Salud de la Familia (ESF) que actúan en áreas rurales. Método: investigación cualitativa, descriptiva-exploratoria. Los datos fueron recolectados con once enfermeros del área rural del municipio de Campina Grande-PB, a través de entrevistas semiestructuradas, entre enero y marzo de 2017, con análisis a partir del Análisis de Contenido. Resultados: los enfermeros de las áreas rurales tienen relación de vínculo intensa con la población. Sin embargo, revelan un cotidiano de trabajo con varias barreras organizacionales que van desde el desplazamiento del equipo al lugar de trabajo a la operacionalización de las acciones de salud, siendo estas mediadas por las características de la ruralidad. Algunas de esas barreras pueden ser sanadas por la acción más propositiva de la gestión. Consideraciones finales: la dinámica de trabajo diferenciada, condicionada por las características propias de la ruralidad, revelan fragilidades en la calidad de la asistencia de enfermería y menor efectividad de la ESF.

RESUMO Objetivo: analisar o cotidiano de trabalho de enfermeiros da Estratégia Saúde da Família (ESF) que atuam em áreas rurais. Método: pesquisa qualitativa, descritiva-exploratória. Os dados foram coletados com onze enfermeiros da área rural do município de Campina Grande-PB, por meio de entrevistas semiestruturadas, entre janeiro e março de 2017, com análise a partir da técnica de Análise de Conteúdo. Resultados: os enfermeiros das áreas rurais têm relação de vínculo intensa com a população, no entanto, revelam um cotidiano de trabalho com várias barreiras organizacionais que vão desde o deslocamento da equipe ao local de trabalho à operacionalização das ações de saúde, sendo essas mediadas pelas características da ruralidade. Algumas dessas barreiras podem ser sanadas pela ação mais propositiva da gestão. Considerações finais: a dinâmica de trabalho diferenciada, condicionada pelas características próprias da ruralidade, revelam fragilidades na qualidade da assistência de enfermagem e menor efetividade da ESF.

Indigenous health and nursing in Roraima in the 1970s / Salud de los indígenas y enfermería en Roraima en la década de 1970 / Saúde indígena e enfermagem em Roraima na década de 1970

ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the strategies undertaken by the government to address the health problem in Boa Vista/Roraima. Method: A study using the microhistory approach, with documentary sources from journalistic material of the 1970s through the triangulation technique: texts, images and context, with analysis from the perspective of the Social World Theory. Results: It was evidenced that the strategies undertaken by the government occurred in favor of the exploration of isolated areas in Roraima that demanded settlement processes, construction of villages and a highway to enable the interconnection of the state with other regions of Brazil, with a smoke screen symbolic effect produced by nurses on indigenous health. Conclusion: There was governmental manipulation, when the symbolic power was unveiled, making it possible to see and believe that nursing needs to guide political issues rather than being ruled.

RESUMEN Objetivo: Analizar las estrategias emprendidas por el gobierno para sanar el problema de la salud en Boa Vista / Roraima. Método: En el estudio de la micro-historia, con fuentes documentales oriundas de materia periodística de la década de 1970, cuando fueron articulados, por medio de la técnica de triangulación, textos, imágenes y contexto, con análisis en la perspectiva de la Teoría del Mundo Social. Resultados: Se evidenció que las estrategias emprendidas oriundas del gobierno ocurrieron en pro de la exploración de áreas aisladas en Roraima que demandaron procesos de poblamiento, construcción de aldeas y de una carretera para viabilizar la interconexión del estado con otras regiones de Brasil, teniendo por cortina de humo el efecto simbólico producido por las enfermeras en la salud indígena. Conclusión: Hubo manipulación gubernamental, cuando el poder simbólico fue desvelado, haciendo ver y creer que la enfermería necesita pautar los asuntos políticos en vez de ser pautada.

RESUMO Objetivo: Analisar as estratégias empreendidas pelo governo para sanar o problema da saúde em Boa Vista/Roraima. Método: Estudo na abordagem da micro-história, com fontes documentais oriundas de matéria jornalística da década de 1970, quando foram articulados, por meio da técnica de triangulação, textos, imagens e contexto, com análise na perspectiva da Teoria do Mundo Social. Resultados: Foi evidenciado que as estratégias empreendidas oriundas do governo ocorreram em prol da exploração de áreas isoladas em Roraima que demandaram processos de povoamento, construção de vilarejos e de uma rodovia para viabilizar a interligação do estado com demais regiões do Brasil, tendo por cortina de fumaça o efeito simbólico produzido pelas enfermeiras na saúde indígena. Conclusão: Houve manipulação governamental, quando o poder simbólico foi desvelado, fazendo ver e crer que a enfermagem precisa pautar os assuntos políticos ao invés de ser pautada.

US Governmental Spending for Disaster-Related Research, 2011-2016: Characterizing the State of Science Funding Across 5 Professional Disciplines.

OBJECTIVE: Disaster-related research funding in the United States has not been described. This study characterizes Federal funding for disaster-related research for 5 professional disciplines: medicine, public health, social science, engineering, emergency management. METHODS: An online key word search was performed using the website, www.USAspending.gov, to identify federal awards, grants, and contracts during 2011-2016. A panel of experts then reviewed each entry for inclusion. RESULTS: The search identified 9145 entries, of which 262 (3%) met inclusion criteria. Over 6 years, the Federal Government awarded US $69 325 130 for all disaster-related research. Total funding levels quadrupled in the first 3 years and then halved in the last 3 years. Half of the funding was for engineering, 3 times higher than social sciences and emergency management and 5 times higher than public health and medicine. Ten (11%) institutions received 52% of all funding. The search returned entries for only 12 of the 35 pre-identified disaster-related capabilities; 6 of 12 capabilities appear to have received no funding for at least 2 years. CONCLUSION: US federal funding for disaster-related research is limited and highly variable during 2011-2016. There are no clear reasons for apportionment. There appears to be an absence of prioritization. There does not appear to be a strategy for alignment of research with national disaster policies.