Impact of COVID-19 lockdown on PM concentrations in an Italian Northern City: A year-by-year assessment.

In the last century, the increase in traffic, human activities and industrial production have led to a diffuse presence of air pollution, which causes an increase of risk of several health conditions such as respiratory diseases. In Europe, air pollution is a serious concern that affects several areas, one of the worst ones being northern Italy, and in particular the Po Valley, an area characterized by low air quality due to a combination of high population density, industrial activity, geographical factors and weather conditions. Public health authorities and local administrations are aware of this problem, and periodically intervene with temporary traffic limitations and other regulations, often insufficient to solve the problem. In February 2020, this area was the first in Europe to be severely hit by the SARS-CoV-2 virus causing the COVID-19 disease, to which the Italian government reacted with the establishment of a drastic lockdown. This situation created the condition to study how significant is the impact of car traffic and industrial activity on the pollution in the area, as these factors were strongly reduced during the lockdown. Differently from some areas in the world, a drastic decrease in pollution measured in terms of particulate matter (PM) was not observed in the Po Valley during the lockdown, suggesting that several external factors can play a role in determining the severity of pollution. In this study, we report the case study of the city of Pavia, where data coming from 23 air quality sensors were analyzed to compare the levels measured during the lockdown with the ones coming from the same period in 2019. Our results show that, on a global scale, there was a statistically significant reduction in terms of PM levels taking into account meteorological variables that can influence pollution such as wind, temperature, humidity, rain and solar radiation. Differences can be noticed analyzing daily pollution trends too, as-compared to the study period in 2019-during the study period in 2020 pollution was higher in the morning and lower in the remaining hours.

The ongoing impact of Covid-19 pandemic on children with medical complexity: the experience of an Italian pediatric palliative care network.

BACKGROUND: Italy was the first European country to experience a massive outbreak of Sars-coV-2 in March 2020. Severe measures were introduced to face the pandemic, significantly impacting all healthcare services, including pediatric palliative care (PPC) networks. We investigated how the Covid-19 pandemic modified the provision of PPC services in Friuli Venezia Giulia, Italy. Both the acute and long-term impacts on the families were addressed. METHODS: We administered a retrospective three-sections online questionnaire to the eligible families assisted by our regional PPC network. Inclusion criteria were: child needing specialistic PPC, adequate knowledge of the Italian language, being in charge of the PPC regional network of Friuli Venezia Giulia from February 1, 2020. The three sections examined the same issues in different periods: the pre-covid period (until February 29, 2020), the lockdown period (March 1, 2020, to April 30, 2020), and the post-lockdown period (May 2021). RESULTS: Twelve patients were included. During the lockdown period, 54.6% of children had to stop physiotherapy sessions, while, among those who continued, 80.0% experienced a reduction in the sessions' frequency. In the post-lockdown period, 45.5% of children did not have physiotherapy as often as before the pandemic onset. Overall, the access to medical visits during the lockdown and after its end was significantly reduced (p = 0.01). The level of support perceived by the families descended from grade 3 (intermediate) in the pre-covid period to 2 (low) during the lockdown (p < 0.05) and returned to grade 3 in the post-lockdown period. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic and the related restrictions impacted the families and caused a transitory contraction of the perceived support. The most significant change was reduced access to medical visits and physiotherapy, which lasted over a year after the start of the pandemic.

Associations between COVID-19 mobility restrictions and economic, mental health, and suicide-related concerns in the US using cellular phone GPS and Google search volume data.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, US populations have experienced elevated rates of financial and psychological distress that could lead to increases in suicide rates. Rapid ongoing mental health monitoring is critical for early intervention, especially in regions most affected by the pandemic, yet traditional surveillance data are available only after long lags. Novel information on real-time population isolation and concerns stemming from the pandemic's social and economic impacts, via cellular mobility tracking and online search data, are potentially important interim surveillance resources. Using these measures, we employed transfer function model time-series analyses to estimate associations between daily mobility indicators (proportion of cellular devices completely at home and time spent at home) and Google Health Trends search volumes for terms pertaining to economic stress, mental health, and suicide during 2020 and 2021 both nationally and in New York City. During the first pandemic wave in early-spring 2020, over 50% of devices remained completely at home and searches for economic stressors exceeded 60,000 per 10 million. We found large concurrent associations across analyses between declining mobility and increasing searches for economic stressor terms (national proportion of devices at home: cross-correlation coefficient (CC) = 0.6 (p-value <0.001)). Nationally, we also found strong associations between declining mobility and increasing mental health and suicide-related searches (time at home: mood/anxiety CC = 0.53 (<0.001), social stressor CC = 0.51 (<0.001), suicide seeking CC = 0.37 (0.006)). Our findings suggest that pandemic-related isolation coincided with acute economic distress and may be a risk factor for poor mental health and suicidal behavior. These emergent relationships warrant ongoing attention and causal assessment given the potential for long-term psychological impact and suicide death. As US populations continue to face stress, Google search data can be used to identify possible warning signs from real-time changes in distributions of population thought patterns.

What it takes to save lives: An assessment of water, sanitation, and hygiene facilities in temporary COVID-19 isolation and treatment centers of Southern Ethiopia: A mixed-methods evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Quality water, sanitation, and hygiene facilities act as barricades to the transmission of COVID-19 in health care facilities. These facilities ought to also be available, accessible, and functional in temporary treatment centers. Despite numerous studies on health care facilities, however, there is limited information on the status of WASH facilities in such centers. METHODS: The assessment of health care facilities for the COVID-19 response checklist and key informant interviews, were used for data collection. 35 treatment centers in Southern Ethiopia were surveyed. Eightkey informants were interviewed to gain an understanding of the WASH conditions in the treatment centers. The Quantitative data was entered using EPI-INFO 7 and exported to SPSS 20 for analysis. Results are presented using descriptive statistics. Open Code 4.02 was used for the thematic analysis of the qualitative data. RESULTS: Daily water supply interruptions occurred at 27 (77.1%) of the surveyed sites. Only 30 (85.72%) had bathrooms that were segregated for personnel and patients, and only 3 (3.57%) had toilets that were handicapped accessible. 20(57.2%) of the treatment centers did not have a hand hygiene protocol that satisfied WHO guidelines. In terms of infection prevention and control, 16 (45.71%) of the facilities lacked adequate personal protective equipment stocks. Between urban and rural areas, there was also a significant difference in latrine maintenance, hand hygiene protocol design and implementation, and incineration capacity. CONCLUSION: The results reveal crucial deficiencies in the provision of WASH in the temporary COVID-19 treatment centers. Efforts to improve WASH should offer priority to hygiene service interventions to minimize the risk of healthcare-acquired infections. The sustainable provision of hygiene services, such as hand washing soap, should also be given priority.

Mathematical modeling of the transmission of SARS-CoV-2-Evaluating the impact of isolation in São Paulo State (Brazil) and lockdown in Spain associated with protective measures on the epidemic of CoViD-19.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (CoViD-19), with the fatality rate in elder (60 years old or more) being much higher than young (60 years old or less) patients, was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020. A mathematical model considering young and elder subpopulations under different fatality rates was formulated based on the natural history of CoViD-19 to study the transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The model considered susceptible, exposed, asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, mild CoViD-19, severe CoViD-19, and recovered compartments, besides compartments of isolated individuals and those who were caught by test. This model was applied to study the epidemiological scenario resulting from the adoption of quarantine (isolation or lockdown) in many countries to control the rapid propagation of CoViD-19. We chose as examples the isolation adopted in São Paulo State (Brazil) in the early phase but not at the beginning of the epidemic, and the lockdown implemented in Spain when the number of severe CoViD-19 cases was increasing rapidly. Based on the data collected from São Paulo State and Spain, the model parameters were evaluated, and we obtained a higher estimation for the basic reproduction number R0 (9.24 for São Paulo State, and 8 for Spain) compared to the currently accepted estimation of R0 around 2 using the SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered compartments) model. In comparison with the lockdown in Spain, the relatively early adoption of the isolation in São Paulo State resulted in enlarging the period of the first wave of the epidemic and delaying its peak. The model allowed to explain the flattening of the epidemic curves by quarantine when associated with the protective measures (face mask, washing hands with alcohol and gel, and social distancing) adopted by the population. The description of the epidemic under quarantine and protections can be a background to foreseen the epidemiological scenarios from the release strategies, which can help guide public health policies by decision-makers.

The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 epidemic growth in the 37 OECD member states.

We estimated the impact of a comprehensive set of non-pharmeceutical interventions on the COVID-19 epidemic growth rate across the 37 member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic and between October and December 2020. For this task, we conducted a data-driven, longitudinal analysis using a multilevel modelling approach with both maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation. We found that during the early phase of the epidemic: implementing restrictions on gatherings of more than 100 people, between 11 and 100 people, and 10 people or less was associated with a respective average reduction of 2.58%, 2.78% and 2.81% in the daily growth rate in weekly confirmed cases; requiring closing for some sectors or for all but essential workplaces with an average reduction of 1.51% and 1.78%; requiring closing of some school levels or all school levels with an average reduction of 1.12% or 1.65%; recommending mask wearing with an average reduction of 0.45%, requiring mask wearing country-wide in specific public spaces or in specific geographical areas within the country with an average reduction of 0.44%, requiring mask-wearing country-wide in all public places or all public places where social distancing is not possible with an average reduction of 0.96%; and number of tests per thousand population with an average reduction of 0.02% per unit increase. Between October and December 2020 work closing requirements and testing policy were significant predictors of the epidemic growth rate. These findings provide evidence to support policy decision-making regarding which NPIs to implement to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Farm diversification as a potential success factor for small-scale farmers constrained by COVID-related lockdown. Contributions from a survey conducted in four European countries during the first wave of COVID-19.

This paper explores to what extent product and marketing channel diversification contributed to the economic success of small-scale agricultural producers involved in short food supply chains after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. A survey was conducted between April and July 2020 in four countries of the European Union-Estonia, Hungary, Portugal and Romania,-resulting in a relatively large sample of farmers (N = 421). The analysis was built on a semi-nonparametric approach. Approximately 19 percent of small-scale producers were able to increase sales during the first wave of the pandemic, although country-level variation was significant. Fruits and vegetables were by far the most popular products. The importance of specific channels varied across countries, but farm gate sales were among the most important marketing channels both before and during the first wave. The importance of channels that were based on digital resources and home delivery increased. Our evidence indicates that diversification was a strategy that paid off, both in terms of marketing channels and different product categories. However, the impact appears to be nonlinear; the initial advantage generated by diversification rapidly tapered off, either temporarily (in the case of products), or permanently (in the case of marketing channels). Later research may clarify whether these findings are generalizable in other socio-economic contexts, as well as in a non-COVID situation.

The global viralization of policies to contain the spreading of the COVID-19 pandemic: Analyses of school closures and first reported cases.

BACKGROUND: On January 30th 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a international health emergency due to the unprecedented phenomenon of COVID-19. After this declaration countries swiftly implemented a variety of health policies. In this work we examine how rapid countries responded to this pandemic using two events: the day in which the first case of COVID-19 was reported, and first day in which countries used school closure as one of the measures to avoid outbreaks. We also assessed how countries' health systems, globalization, economic development, political systems, and economic integration to China, Republic of Korea and Italy increased the speed of adoption. METHODS: We compiled information from multiple sources, from December 31st 2019 to June 1st 2020, to trace when 172 countries reported their first COVID-19 case and implemented school closure to contain outbreaks. We applied cross-national Weibull survival analysis to evaluate the global speed of detection of first COVID-19 reported cases and school closure. RESULTS: Ten days after WHO declared COVID-19 to be an international emergency, relative to seven days from this declaration, countries were 28 (95% CI: 12-77) times more likely to report first COVID-19 cases and 42 (95% CI: 22-90) times more likely to close schools. One standard deviation increase in the epidemic security index rises the rate of report first cases by 37% (Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.37 (95% CI: 1.09-1.72) and delays the adoption for school closures by 36% (HR 0.64 (95% CI:0.50-0.82). One standard deviation increase in the globalization index augments the adoption for school closures by 74% (HR 1.74 (95% CI:1.34-2.24). CONCLUSION: After the WHO declared a global emergency, countries were unprecedently acting very rapidly. While countries more globally integrated were swifter in closing schools, countries with better designed health systems to tackle epidemics were slower in adopting it. More studies are needed to assess how the speed of school closures and other policies will affect the development of the pandemic.

Persistent Somatic Symptom Burden and Sleep Disturbance in Patients with COVID-19 During Hospitalization and After Discharge: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND The present study was designed to reveal the trajectory of self-reported somatic symptom burden and sleep quality over time in patients with COVID-19 and to identify prognostic factors for greater somatic symptom burden and sleep disturbance. MATERIAL AND METHODS Seventy-four patients with COVID-19 were prospectively followed for longitudinal assessment of somatic symptom burden and sleep quality. We used the 8-item Somatic Symptom Scale (SSS-8) and the modified Medical Research Council (mMRC) scale for somatic symptom burden and the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index for sleep quality investigation. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify independent factors associated with somatic symptom burden and sleep quality. RESULTS Although the degree of physical discomfort and sleep quality issues tended to decline during self-quarantine, patients still experienced these problems to a certain degree. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that SSS-8 scores at admission (relative risk [RR] 1.234, 95% CI 1.075-1.417, P=0.003) and mMRC scores at discharge (RR 2.420, 95% CI 1.251-4.682, P=0.009) were 2 independent prognostic indicators of somatic symptom burden. In addition, muscle pain as a chief complaint (RR 4.682, 95% CI 1.247-17.580, P<0.022) and history of use of hypnotic drugs (RR 0.148, 95% CI 0.029-0.749, P<0.019) were 2 independent indicators of patient sleep quality during hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS To the best of our knowledge, the present study was the first dynamic assessment of the somatic symptom burden and sleep quality in patients with COVID-19 during hospitalization and quarantine after discharge. Patients with high somatic symptom burden at admission, especially muscle pain as the chief complaint, are prone to having a higher physical burden and more sleep disturbance at discharge.

Assessment of Pediatric Admissions for Kawasaki Disease or Infectious Disease During the COVID-19 State of Emergency in Japan.

Importance: The development of Kawasaki disease (KD) has been suggested to be associated with droplet- or contact-transmitted infection; however, its triggers and transmission modes remain to be determined. Under an epidemic of SARS-CoV-2, the COVID-19 state of emergency in Japan served as a nationwide social experiment to investigate the impact of quarantine or isolation on the incidence of KD. Objective: To assess the role of droplet or contact transmission in the etiopathogenesis of KD. Design, Setting, and Participants: This multicenter, longitudinal, cross-sectional study was conducted from 2015 to 2020 at Fukuoka Children's Hospital and 5 adjacent general hospitals. The number of admissions for KD and infectious diseases were analyzed. Participants were pediatric patients admitted to the participating hospitals for KD or infectious diseases. Exposures: Quarantine and isolation owing to the COVID-19 state of emergency. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end points were the ratios of patients with KD to patients with respiratory tract or gastrointestinal infections admitted from April to May in 2015 to 2019 and 2020. A Poisson regression model was used to analyze them. Results: The study participants included 1649 patients with KD (median [interquartile range] age, 25 [13-43] months; 901 boys [54.6%]) and 15 586 patients with infectious disease (data on age and sex were not available for these patients). The number of admissions for KD showed no significant change between April and May in 2015 to 2019 vs the same months in 2020 (mean [SD], 24.8 [5.6] vs 18.0 [4.0] admissions per month; 27.4% decrease; adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR], 0.73; 95% CI, 0.48-1.10; P = .12). However, the number of admissions for droplet-transmitted or contact-transmitted respiratory tract infections (mean [SD], 157.6 [14.4] vs 39.0 [15.0] admissions per month; 75.3% decrease; aIRR, 0.25; 95% CI, 0.17-0.35; P < .001) and gastrointestinal infections (mean [SD], 43.8 [12.9] vs 6.0 [2.0] admissions per month; 86.3% decrease; aIRR, 0.14; 95% CI, 0.04-0.43; P < .001) showed significant decreases between April and May in 2015 to 2019 vs the same months in 2020 (total, 12 254 infections). Thus, the ratio of KD to droplet- or contact-transmitted respiratory tract and gastrointestinal infections incidence in April and May 2020 was significantly increased (ratio, 0.40 vs 0.12; χ21 = 22.76; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, the significantly increased incidence of KD compared with respiratory tract and gastrointestinal infections during the COVID-19 state of emergency suggests that contact or droplet transmission is not a major route for KD development and that KD may be associated with airborne infections in most cases.

Global dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic model with recessive infection and isolation.

In this paper, we present an SEIIaHR epidemic model to study the influence of recessive infection and isolation in the spread of COVID-19. We first prove that the infection-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable with condition R0<1 and the positive equilibrium is uniformly persistent when the condition R0>1. By using the COVID-19 data in India, we then give numerical simulations to illustrate our results and carry out some sensitivity analysis. We know that asymptomatic infections will affect the spread of the disease when the quarantine rate is within the range of [0.3519, 0.5411]. Furthermore, isolating people with symptoms is important to control and eliminate the disease.

COVID-19: Rethinking the Lockdown Groupthink.

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide pandemic in 2020. In response, most countries in the world implemented lockdowns, restricting their population's movements, work, education, gatherings, and general activities in attempt to "flatten the curve" of COVID-19 cases. The public health goal of lockdowns was to save the population from COVID-19 cases and deaths, and to prevent overwhelming health care systems with COVID-19 patients. In this narrative review I explain why I changed my mind about supporting lockdowns. The initial modeling predictions induced fear and crowd-effects (i.e., groupthink). Over time, important information emerged relevant to the modeling, including the lower infection fatality rate (median 0.23%), clarification of high-risk groups (specifically, those 70 years of age and older), lower herd immunity thresholds (likely 20-40% population immunity), and the difficult exit strategies. In addition, information emerged on significant collateral damage due to the response to the pandemic, adversely affecting many millions of people with poverty, food insecurity, loneliness, unemployment, school closures, and interrupted healthcare. Raw numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths were difficult to interpret, and may be tempered by information placing the number of COVID-19 deaths in proper context and perspective relative to background rates. Considering this information, a cost-benefit analysis of the response to COVID-19 finds that lockdowns are far more harmful to public health (at least 5-10 times so in terms of wellbeing years) than COVID-19 can be. Controversies and objections about the main points made are considered and addressed. Progress in the response to COVID-19 depends on considering the trade-offs discussed here that determine the wellbeing of populations. I close with some suggestions for moving forward, including focused protection of those truly at high risk, opening of schools, and building back better with a economy.

Telemedicine and urban diabetes during COVID-19 pandemic in Milano, Italy during lock-down: epidemiological and sociodemographic picture.

BACKGROUND: Since 2010, more than half of World population lives in Urban Environments. Urban Diabetes has arisen as a novel nosological entity in Medicine. Urbanization leads to the accrual of a number of factors increasing the vulnerability to diabetes mellitus and related diseases. Herein we report clinical-epidemiological data of the Milano Metropolitan Area in the contest of the Cities Changing Diabetes Program. Since the epidemiological picture was taken in January 2020, on the edge of COVID-19 outbreak in the Milano Metropolitan Area, a perspective addressing potential interactions between diabetes and obesity prevalence and COVID-19 outbreak, morbidity and mortality will be presented. To counteract lock-down isolation and, in general, social distancing a pilot study was conducted to assess the feasibility and efficacy of tele-monitoring via Flash Glucose control in a cohort of diabetic patients in ASST North Milano. METHODS: Data presented derive from 1. ISTAT (National Institute of Statistics of Italy), 2. Milano ATS web site (Health Agency of Metropolitan Milano Area), which entails five ASST (Health Agencies in the Territories). A pilot study was conducted in 65 screened diabetic patients (only 40 were enrolled in the study of those 36 were affected by type 2 diabetes and 4 were affected by type 1 diabetes) of ASST North Milano utilizing Flash Glucose Monitoring for 3 months (mean age 65 years, HbA1c 7,9%. Patients were subdivided in 3 groups using glycemic Variability Coefficient (VC): a. High risk, VC > 36, n. 8 patients; Intermediate risk 20 < VC < 36, n. 26 patients; Low risk VC < 20, n. 4 patients. The control group was constituted by 26 diabetic patients non utilizing Flash Glucose monitoring. RESULTS: In a total population of 3.227.264 (23% is over 65 y) there is an overall prevalence of 5.65% with a significant difference between Downtown ASST (5.31%) and peripheral ASST (ASST North Milano, 6.8%). Obesity and overweight account for a prevalence of 7.8% and 27.7%, respectively, in Milano Metropolitan Area. We found a linear relationship (R = 0.36) between prevalence of diabetes and aging index. Similarly, correlations between diabetes prevalence and both older people depending index and structural dependence index (R = 0.75 and R = 0.93, respectively), were found. A positive correlation (R = 0.46) with percent of unoccupied people and diabetes prevalence was also found. A reverse relationship between diabetes prevalence and University level instruction rate was finally identified (R = - 0.82). Our preliminary study demonstrated a reduction of Glycated Hemoglobin (p = 0.047) at 3 months follow-up during the lock-down period, indicating Flash Glucose Monitoring and remote control as a potential methodology for diabetes management during COVID-19 lock-down. HYPOTHESIS AND DISCUSSION: The increase in diabetes and obesity prevalence in Milano Metropolitan Area, which took place over 30 years, is related to several environmental factors. We hypothesize that some of those factors may have also determined the high incidence and virulence of COVID-19 in the Milano area. Health Agencies of Milano Metropolitan Area are presently taking care of diabetic patients facing the new challenge of maintaining sustainable diabetes care costs in light of an increase in urban population and of the new life-style. The COVID-19 pandemic will modify the management of diabetic and obese patients permanently, via the implementation of approaches that entail telemedicine technology. The pilot study conducted during the lock-down period indicates an improvement of glucose control utilizing a remote glucose control system in the Milano Metropolitan Area, suggesting a wider utilization of similar methodologies during the present "second wave" lock-down.

Optimal control in pandemics.

During a pandemic, there are conflicting demands that arise from public health and socioeconomic costs. Lockdowns are a common way of containing infections, but they adversely affect the economy. We study the question of how to minimize the socioeconomic damage of a lockdown while still containing infections. Our analysis is based on the SIR model, which we analyze using a clock set by the virus. This use of the "virus time" permits a clean mathematical formulation of our problem. We optimize the socioeconomic cost for a fixed health cost and arrive at a strategy for navigating the pandemic. This involves adjusting the level of lockdowns in a controlled manner so as to minimize the socioeconomic cost.

Early relaxation of community mitigation policies and risk of COVID-19 resurgence in the United States.

This study aimed to assess the impact of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) prevalence in the United States in the week leading to the relaxation of the stay-at-home orders (SAH) on future prevalence across states that implemented different SAH policies. We used data on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases as of August 21, 2020 on county level. We classified states into four groups based on the 7-day change in prevalence and the state's approach to SAH policy. The groups included: (1) High Change (19 states; 7-day prevalence change ≥50th percentile), (2) Low Change (19 states; 7-day prevalence change <50th percentile), (3) No SAH (11 states: did not adopt SAH order), and (4) No SAH End (2 states: did not relax SAH order). We performed regression modeling assessing the association between change in prevalence at the time of SAH order relaxation and COVID-19 prevalence days after the relaxation of SAH order for four selected groups. After adjusting for other factors, compared to the High Change group, counties in the Low Change group had 33.8 (per 100,000 population) fewer cases (standard error (SE): 19.8, p < 0.001) 7 days after the relaxation of SAH order and the difference was larger by time passing. On August 21, 2020, the No SAH End group had 383.1 fewer cases (per 100,000 population) than the High Change group (SE: 143.6, p < 0.01). A measured, evidence-based approach is required to safely relax the community mitigation strategies and practice phased-reopening of the country.

Assessment of Day-7 Postexposure Testing of Asymptomatic Contacts of COVID-19 Patients to Evaluate Early Release from Quarantine - Vermont, May-November 2020.

On May 8, 2020, the Vermont Department of Health (VDH) issued a Health Update* recommending shortening the duration of quarantine for persons exposed to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Exposed persons who were in quarantine could be tested by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) on or after quarantine day 7. Those who had remained asymptomatic throughout quarantine and who received a negative SARS-CoV-2 PCR test result on or after day 7 could end quarantine. This policy was based on a report suggesting that symptom onset occurs within this time frame in approximately three quarters of COVID-19 cases (1) and on consultation of the Vermont Health Commissioner with the U.S. Surgeon General. VDH implemented this policy to minimize restrictions on state residents, recognizing that some reduction could occur in the prevention benefit of quarantine to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2. State-run SARS-CoV-2 testing sites were made available to increase access to no-cost testing and facilitate implementation of this policy. During August 1-December 1, among persons seeking testing at a VDH SARS-CoV-2 testing site, 36% stated that their reason for seeking testing was to end quarantine early (VDH, unpublished data, December 7, 2020), indicating that persons were aware of and following the policy and using the testing services provided. To assess the effectiveness of this policy, VDH analyzed testing data for contacts of persons with a COVID-19 diagnosis. During May 8-November 16, VDH identified 8,798 exposed contacts of COVID-19 patients; 3,983 (45%) had sought testing within 14 days of their exposure, with day 0 defined as the date of last exposure noted in the case investigation record. Among these persons, 2,200 (55%) who received testing on days 7-10 were included in this analysis; 977 (44.9%) of these contacts had a specimen collected for testing on day 7. Among these, 34 (3%) had test results that were positive, 940 (96%) had results that were negative, and three (<1%) had results that were indeterminate (Table). Among the 34 contacts who received a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test result on day 7 after exposure, 12 (35%) were asymptomatic. The remaining 22 contacts with positive test results were symptomatic at the time of testing; approximately one half had developed symptoms on days 4-7 after exposure. Among the 940 contacts who received negative test results on specimens collected on day 7 after exposure, 154 (16%) had a subsequent test within the next 7 days (i.e., days 8-14); among these, 152 (99%) had tests that remained negative, and two (1%) had results that were indeterminate.

Pareto-based evaluation of national responses to COVID-19 pandemic shows that saving lives and protecting economy are non-trade-off objectives.

Countries worldwide have adopted various strategies to minimize the socio-economic impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Stringency of imposed measures universally reflects the standpoint from which protecting public health and avoiding damage to economy are seen as contradictory objectives. Based on epidemic trajectories of 25 highly developed countries and 10 US states in the (mobility reduction)-(reproduction number) plane we showed that delay in imposition of nation-wide quarantine elevates the number of infections and deaths, surge of which inevitably has to be suppressed by stringent and sustained lockdown. As a consequence, cumulative mobility reduction and population-normalized cumulative number of COVID-19-associated deaths are significantly correlated and this correlation increases with time. Overall, we demonstrated that, as long as epidemic suppression is the aim, the trade-off between the death toll and economic loss is illusory: high death toll correlates with deep and long-lasting lockdown causing a severe economic downturn.

Cost and benefit of military quarantine policies.

The initial response to COVID-19 included quarantine policies. This study aims to determine the infection containment proportions and cost of two variations of quarantine policies based on geographic travel and close contact with infected individuals within deployed US military populations. Special Operations Command Africa (SOCAF) records of individuals quarantined between March 1, 2020 and June 1, 2020 were examined. The infection containment proportion and cost in containment hours were compared between types of quarantine and between geographic areas. Geographic quarantine contained 2 cases out of 63 quarantined individuals in West Africa (3.2%) compared to 0 out of 221 in East Africa (p = 0.0486). Close contact quarantine contained 3 cases out of 31 quarantined individuals in West Africa compared to 4 out of 55 in East Africa (7.3%, p = 0.6989). Total confinement was 42,048 h for each contained infection using geographic quarantine compared to 4076 h using close contact quarantine. In the US military population deployed to Africa for COVID-19, quarantining based on geographic movement is an order of magnitude more costly in terms of time for each contained infection then quarantining based on close contact with infected individuals. There is not a statistical difference between East and West Africa. The associated costs of quarantine must be carefully weighed against the risk of disease spread.