Dermatology workforce projections in the United States, 2021 to 2036.

BACKGROUND: There has been a growing imbalance between supply of dermatologists and demand for dermatologic care. To best address physician shortages, it is important to delineate supply and demand patterns in the dermatologic workforce. The goal of this study was to explore dermatology supply and demand over time. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of workforce supply and demand projections for dermatologists from 2021 to 2036 using data from the Health Workforce Simulation Model from the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis. Estimates for total workforce supply and demand were summarized in aggregate and stratified by rurality. Scenarios with status quo demand and improved access were considered. RESULTS: Projected total supply showed a 12.45% increase by 2036. Total demand increased 12.70% by 2036 in the status quo scenario. In the improved access scenario, total supply was inadequate for total demand in any year, lagging by 28% in 2036. Metropolitan areas demonstrated a relative supply surplus up to 2036; nonmetropolitan areas had at least a 157% excess in demand throughout the study period. In 2021 adequacy was 108% and 39% adequacy for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, respectively; these differences were projected to continue through 2036. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that the dermatology physician workforce is inadequate to meet the demand for dermatologic services in nonmetropolitan areas. Furthermore, improved access to dermatologic care would bolster demand and especially exacerbate workforce inadequacy in nonmetropolitan areas. Continued efforts are needed to address health inequities and ensure access to quality dermatologic care for all.

A Geospatial Analysis of the Availability, Distribution, and Accessibility of Neurosurgical Facilities, Workforce, and Infrastructure in Nigeria; and Projection Towards 2050.

OBJECTIVE: There has been a modest but progressive increase in the neurosurgical workforce, training, and service delivery in Nigeria in the last 2 decades. However, these resources are unevenly distributed. This study aimed to quantitatively assess the availability and distribution of neurosurgical resources in Nigeria while projecting the needed workforce capacity up to 2050. METHODS: An online survey of Nigerian neurosurgeons and residents assessed the country's neurosurgical infrastructure, workforce, and resources. The results were analyzed descriptively, and geospatial analysis was used to map their distribution. A projection model was fitted to predict workforce targets for 2022-2050. RESULTS: Out of 86 neurosurgery-capable health facilities, 65.1% were public hospitals, with only 17.4% accredited for residency training. Dedicated hospital beds and operating rooms for neurosurgery make up only 4.0% and 15.4% of the total, respectively. The population disease burden is estimated at 50.2 per 100,000, while the operative coverage was 153.2 cases per neurosurgeon. There are currently 132 neurosurgeons and 114 neurosurgery residents for a population of 218 million (ratio 1:1.65 million). There is an annual growth rate of 8.3%, resulting in a projected deficit of 1113 neurosurgeons by 2030 and 1104 by 2050. Timely access to neurosurgical care ranges from 21.6% to 86.7% of the population within different timeframes. CONCLUSIONS: Collaborative interventions are needed to address gaps in Nigeria's neurosurgical capacity. Investments in training, infrastructure, and funding are necessary for sustainable development and optimized outcomes.

The changing psychiatry workforce in Australia: Still lacking in rural and remote regions.

INTRODUCTION: There is a long standing and worsening shortage of psychiatrists in Australia particularly in rural areas. The majority of psychiatrists work in major cities. OBJECTIVE: To identify recent trends in the Australian rural psychiatrist workforce compared with the metropolitan workforce. DESIGN: We descriptively analysed population-level data from the National Health Workforce Data Set (NHWDS), the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). A descriptive analysis of the numbers (count) and gender of psychiatrists from 1995 to 2022 working in Australia was conducted. For the period 2013 to 2022, we analysed for rurality, gender, years' experience, hours worked, Medicare-subsidised services provided and proportions of Specialist International Medical Graduates (SIMG) by sex, with a focus on the rural workforce. For international comparison, psychiatrist numbers were obtained for other OECD countries. The number of psychiatrists working in Australia, as per NHWDS and AIHW, was quantified. We analysed trends in demographics, hours worked and rurality of psychiatrists working in Australia in a serial cross-sectional design. FINDINGS: Most psychiatrists are maldistributed to major cities, while outer regional and remote areas have few resident psychiatrists. Outer regional New South Wales (NSW) and South Australia (SA) have the lowest numbers of psychiatrists per capita. The full-time equivalent (FTE) of psychiatrists per 100 000 has increased from 12.6 in 2000 to 15.2 in 2022. However, the average hours worked by psychiatrists has declined. In total, available psychiatrist hours worked per 100 000 population has increased by 6.1% since the beginning of the millennium. DISCUSSION: Rural areas in NSW and SA have the greatest shortage of psychiatrists. Specialist International Medical Graduates and females (43% of the overall workforce) are the predominant workforce in rural areas. Although Medicare-subsidised services per 1000 people have increased in rural areas, they remain lower than for those living in major cities. CONCLUSION: There remains an acute shortage of psychiatrists in many regional and remote areas of Australia, with an increasing proportion of SIMGs and females working in these areas, in the context of future increased demand.

Trends in the nephrologist workforce in South Africa (2002-2017) and forecasting for 2030.

BACKGROUND: The growing global health burden of kidney disease is substantial and the nephrology workforce is critical to managing it. There are concerns that the nephrology workforce appears to be shrinking in many countries. This study analyses trends in South Africa for the period 2002-2017, describes current training capacity and uses this as a basis for forecasting the nephrology workforce for 2030. METHODS: Data on registered nephrologists for the period 2002 to 2017 was obtained from the Health Professions Council of South Africa and the Colleges of Medicine of South Africa. Training capacity was assessed using data on government-funded posts for nephrologists and nephrology trainees, as well as training post numbers (the latter reflecting potential training capacity). Based on the trends, the gap in the supply of nephrologists was forecast for 2030 based on three targets: reducing the inequalities in provincial nephrologist densities, reducing the gap between public and private sector nephrologist densities, and international benchmarking using the Global Kidney Health Atlas and British Renal Society recommendations. RESULTS: The number of nephrologists increased from 53 to 141 (paediatric nephrologists increased from 9 to 22) over the period 2002-2017. The density in 2017 was 2.5 nephrologists per million population (pmp). In 2002, the median age of nephrologists was 46 years (interquartile range (IQR) 39-56 years) and in 2017 the median age was 48 years (IQR 41-56 years). The number of female nephrologists increased from 4 to 43 and the number of Black nephrologists increased from 3 to 24. There have been no nephrologists practising in the North West and Mpumalanga provinces and only one each in Limpopo and the Northern Cape. The current rate of production of nephrologists is eight per year. At this rate, and considering estimates of nephrologists exiting the workforce, there will be 2.6 nephrologists pmp in 2030. There are 17 government-funded nephrology trainee posts while the potential number based on the prescribed trainer-trainee ratio is 72. To increase the nephrologist density of all provinces to at least the level of KwaZulu-Natal (2.8 pmp), which has a density closest to the country average, a projected 72 additional nephrologists (six per year) would be needed by 2030. Benchmarking against the 25th centile (5.1 pmp) of upper-middle-income countries (UMICs) reported in the Global Kidney Health Atlas would require the training of an additional eight nephrologists per year. CONCLUSIONS: South Africa has insufficient nephrologists, especially in the public sector and in certain provinces. A substantial increase in the production of new nephrologists is required. This requires an increase in funded training posts and posts for qualified nephrologists in the public sector. This study has estimated the numbers and distribution of nephrologists needed to address provincial inequalities and achieve realistic nephrologist density targets.

A 'new normal' following COVID-19 and the economic crisis: Using systems thinking to identify challenges and opportunities in disability, telework, and rehabilitation.

BACKGROUND: The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) that emerged in late 2019, and later become a global pandemic, has unleashed an almost unprecedented global public health and economic crisis. OBJECTIVE: In this perspective, we examine the effects of COVID-19 and identify a likely 'new normal' in terms of challenges and opportunities within the fields of disability, telework, and rehabilitation. METHODS: We use a systems thinking lens informed by recent empirical evidence and peer-reviewed qualitative accounts regarding the pandemic to identify emerging challenges, and pinpoint opportunities related to health and changing employment infrastructure of people with disabilities and rehabilitation professionals. RESULTS: From our interpretation, the key leverage points or opportunities include: (1) developing disability-inclusive public health responses and emergency preparedness; (2) enabling employment and telework opportunities for people with disabilities; (3) addressing the new requirements in rehabilitation service provision, including participating as essential team members in the care of people with infectious diseases such as COVID-19; (4) embracing the added emphasis on, and capacity for, telehealth; and (5) developing greater resilience, distance learning, and employability among the rehabilitation workforce. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic has become increasingly challenging to the lives of people with disabilities and rehabilitation professionals; however, key challenges can be minimized and opportunities can be capitalized upon in order to 'build back better' after COVID-19.

[French national emergency department's crisis: The outcome of a growing gap between health resources and needs?] / Crise nationale des urgences : le résultat d'un déséquilibre croissant entre offre et demande de soins ?

Overcrowding in Emergency Departments is often considered as an outcome of insufficient access to hospital beds or primary care, therefore a potential lack of health resources. We sought to describe the quantitative evolution of health resources in the French health care system, in comparison with demographic and epidemiologic parameters that reflect health needs. Overall, in the last decade, parameters of capacity and human resources stagnated while activity and spending increased jointly, stimulated by ageing of the population and chronic diseases mostly. Nevertheless, recent official previsions have again recommended to proceed with hospital bed reduction until 2030. This has led to a dangerous saturation of emergency care and to the ongoing systemic health crisis. This situation will require ambitious health resources reinforcement plans in both hospital and primary care. Furthermore, ageing of the population and chronic diseases must lead society to deliberate on the fundamental goals and funding of our health care system.

Emerging Trends in the Neurosurgical Workforce of Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: Every year, there are an estimated 22.6 million new neurosurgical consultative cases worldwide, of which 13.8 million require surgery. In 2016, the global neurosurgical workforce was estimated and mapped as open-access information to guide neurosurgeons, affiliates, and policy makers. We present a subsequent investigation for mapping the global neurosurgical workforce for 2018 to show the replicability of previous data collection methods as well as to show any changes in workforce density. METHODS: We extracted data on the absolute number of neurosurgeons per low and middle-income countries (LMICs) in 2016 from the database of the global neurosurgical workforce mapping project. The estimated number of neurosurgeons in each LMIC during 2018 was obtained from collaborators. The median workforce densities were calculated for 2016 and 2018. Neurosurgical workforce density heat maps were generated. RESULTS: We received data from 119 countries (response rate 86.2%) and imputed data for 19 countries (13.8%). Seventy-eight (56.5%, N = 138) countries had an increase in their number of neurosurgeons, 9 (6.5%) showed a decrease, whereas 51 (37.0%) had the same number of neurosurgeons in both years. The pooled median increased from 0.17 (interquartile range, 0.54) in 2016 to 0.18 (interquartile range, 0.59) in 2018. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the density of the neurosurgical workforce has increased from 2016 to 2018. However, at the current rate, 80 LMICs (58.0%) will not meet the neurosurgical workforce density target by 2030.

Spatial distribution and temporal trend of National Health System and Supplemental Health Sector human resources, Brazil, 2005-2016. / A distribuição espacial e a tendência temporal de recursos humanos para o Sistema Único de Saúde e para a Saúde Suplementar, Brasil, 2005 a 2016.

OBJECTIVE: to analyze the spatial distribution and temporal trend of human resources for the Brazilian National Health System (SUS) and the Supplemental Health sector. METHODS: an ecological study was conducted in the country's 27 Federative Units (FUs); SUS Information Technology Department (DATASUS) data were used relating to the doctor, dental surgeon, nurse and nursing technician personnel categories for the period 2005-2016; Prais-Winsten regression was used to assess the time trend. RESULTS: there was an rising trend of Supplemental Health Sector human resources in all personnel categories, with an mean annual increase of 0.054 (95%CI: 0.031;0.076); with regard to SUS, there was an increase in dental surgeons and nursing technicians, with annual increases of 0.008 (95%CI: 0.003;0.011), and 0.066 (95%CI 0.022; 0.087), respectively, while in most FU, nurses showed a stationary trend and doctors showed a stationary or falling trend. CONCLUSION: inequalities were found in human resource distribution, reflecting the health system crisis.

Where do we go from here? - Opportunities and barriers to the career development of trial managers: a survey of UK-based trial management professionals.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials commonly have a dedicated trial manager and effective trial management is essential to the successful delivery of high-quality trials. Trial managers have diverse experience and currently there is no standardised structured career pathway. The UK Trial Managers' Network (UKTMN) surveyed its members to understand what is important to them with respect to career development since this would be important in the development of any initiative intended to develop a skilled workforce. METHODS: We conducted an online survey of UKTMN members, who are trial management professionals, working on academic-led trials in the UK. Members were asked what they perceive as opportunities and barriers to career development. Two reminders were sent to facilitate completion of the survey, and responders were offered the opportunity to enter a prize draw for waived fees at the UKTMN annual meeting. Data were analysed descriptively by using Stata (version 15.1), and free-text responses were reviewed for themes. RESULTS: The survey was sent to 819 UKTMN members; 433 responses were received, although 13 were from non-UKTMN members; thus 420 respondents' data were included in analyses. Respondents were representative of UKTMN membership; however, more responses were received by trial managers based in registered clinical trials units (CTUs). The top three opportunities for career development were (i) training, (ii) helping design trials and (iii) undertaking relevant qualifications. The top three barriers were (i) funding, (ii) few opportunities to get involved in development activities aside from managing a trial and (iii) unclear organisational career pathway. Almost all respondents (401/420, 95.4%) considered career development either very or quite important. Although all respondents had a day-to-day role in managing trials, there was huge disparity between job titles. CONCLUSION: Career development is important to trial managers yet there is a lack of a structured pathway. The enablers and disablers to career development for trial managers should be clearly considered by the clinical trial community and, in particular, employers, sponsors and funders in order to develop a highly skilled workforce of trial managers, who are key to the delivery of trials.

Retention and Migration of Rwandan Anesthesiologists: A Qualitative Study.

BACKGROUND: Health care professional migration continues to challenge countries where the lack of surgical and anesthesia specialists results in being unable to address the global burden of surgical disease in their populations. Medical migration is particularly damaging to health care systems that are just beginning to scale up capacity building of human resources for health. Anesthesiologists are scarce in low-resource settings. Defining reasons why anesthesiologists leave their country of training through in-depth interviews may provide guidance to policy makers and academic organizations on how to retain valuable health professionals. METHODS: There were 24 anesthesiologists eligible to participate in this qualitative interview study, 15 of whom are currently practicing in Rwanda and 9 had left the country. From the eligible group, interviews were conducted with 13 currently practicing in Rwanda and 2 who had left to practice elsewhere. In-depth interviews of approximately 60 minutes were used to define themes influencing retention and migration among anesthesiologists in Rwanda. Interviews were conducted using a semistructured guide and continued until theoretical sufficiency was reached. Thematic analysis was done by 4 members of the research team using open coding to inductively identify themes. RESULTS: Interpretation of results used the framework categorizing themes into push, pull, stick, and stay to describe factors that influence migration, or the potential for migration, of anesthesiologists in Rwanda. While adequate salary is essential to retention of anesthesiologists in Rwanda, other factors such as lack of equipment and medication for safe anesthesia, isolation, and demoralization are strong push factors. Conversely, a rich academic life and optimism for the future encourage anesthesiologists to stay. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that better clinical resources and equipment, a more supportive community of practice, and advocacy by mentors and academic partners could encourage more staff anesthesiologists to stay and work in Rwanda.

Increasing the Rural Workforce of Family Medicine Physicians: A Community-Focused Approach.

There is an increased need for Family Medicine physicians who make up approximately 40% of the primary care work. In this article the authors share perspective on how to engage the community in increasing the rural workforce of Family Physicians. Suggestions include introducing the school to the community in which it lives, matching the applicant to the needs of the community and not just the needs of the school, including community members as part of the admissions process and recruiting applicants primarily from inside the state.

Translating Workforce Development Policy Interventions for Community Health Workers: Application of a Policy Research Continuum.

CONTEXT: There is a need for knowledge translation to advance health equity in the prevention and control of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. One recommended strategy is engaging community health workers (CHWs) to have a central role in related interventions. Despite strong evidence of effectiveness for CHWs, there is limited information examining the impact of state CHW policy interventions. This article describes the application of a policy research continuum to enhance knowledge translation of CHW workforce development policy in the United States. METHODS: During 2016-2019, a team of public health researchers and practitioners applied the policy research continuum, a multiphased systematic assessment approach that incorporates legal epidemiology to enhance knowledge translation of CHW workforce development policy interventions in the United States. The continuum consists of 5 discrete, yet interconnected, phases including early evidence assessments, policy surveillance, implementation studies, policy ratings, and impact studies. RESULTS: Application of the first 3 phases of the continuum demonstrated (1) how CHW workforce development policy interventions are linked to strong evidence bases, (2) whether existing state CHW laws are evidence-informed, and (3) how different state approaches were implemented. DISCUSSION: As a knowledge translation tool, the continuum enhances dissemination of timely, useful information to inform decision making and supports the effective implementation and scale-up of science-based policy interventions. When fully implemented, it assists public health practitioners in examining the utility of different policy intervention approaches, the effects of adaptation, and the linkages between policy interventions and more distal public health outcomes.

Physician workforce in the United States of America: forecasting nationwide shortages.

BACKGROUND: Physicians play a critical role in healthcare delivery. With an aging US population, population growth, and a greater insured population following the Affordable Care Act (ACA), healthcare demand is growing at an unprecedented pace. This study is to examine current and future physician job surplus/shortage trends across the United States of America from 2017 to 2030. METHODS: Using projected changes in population size and age, the authors developed demand and supply models to forecast the physician shortage (difference between demand and supply) in each of the 50 states. Letter grades were then assigned based on projected physician shortage ratios (physician shortage per 100 000 people) to evaluate physician shortages and describe the changing physician workforce in each state. RESULTS: On the basis of current trends, the number of states receiving a grade of "D" or "F" for their physician shortage ratio will increase from 4 in 2017 to 23 by 2030, with a total national deficit of 139 160 physician jobs. By 2030, the West is forecasted to have the greatest physician shortage ratio (69 physician jobs per 100 000 people), while the Northeast will have a surplus of 50 jobs per 100 000 people. CONCLUSION: There will be physician workforce shortages throughout the country in 2030. Outcomes of this study provide a foundation to discuss effective and efficient ways to curb the worsening shortage over the coming decades and meet current and future population demands. Increased efforts to understand shortage dynamics are warranted.

Human resources for nephrology in South Africa: A mixed-methods study.

INTRODUCTION: The global nephrology workforce is shrinking and, in many countries, is unable to meet healthcare needs. Accurate data pertaining to human resources in nephrology in South Africa is lacking. This data is critical for the planning and delivery of renal services and the training of nephrologists in South Africa to meet the challenge of the growing burden of chronic kidney disease. METHODS: A cross-sectional study of adult and paediatric nephrologists currently delivering nephrology services in South Africa was conducted. Participants were identified using various data sources, including the register of the Health Professions Council of South Africa. This cohort of doctors was described in terms of their demographics and distribution. A survey was then conducted among these nephrologists to collect additional information on their training, scope of practice, job satisfaction, challenges and future plans. Finally, two focus group interviews were conducted to probe themes identified from the survey data. RESULTS: A total of 120 adult nephrologists and 22 paediatric nephrologists were identified (an overall density of 2.5 per million population). There is a male predominance (66%) and the median age is 45 years. The bulk of the workforce (128 nephrologists, 92%) is distributed in three of the nine South African provinces, and two provinces have no nephrologist at all. The survey was completed by 57% of the nephrologists. Most reported positive attitudes to their chosen profession; however, 35 nephrologists (43%) reported an excessive workload, 9 (11%) were planning emigration and 15 (19%) were planning early retirement. A higher frequency of dissatisfaction regarding remuneration (39% vs. 15%) and unsatisfactory work conditions (35% vs. 13%) was observed amongst nephrologists working in the public sector compared to the private sector. A total of 13 nephrologists participated in the focus group interviews. The themes which were identified included that of a rewarding profession, an overall shortage of nephrologists, poor career planning, a need for changes to nephrologists' training, excessive workloads with inadequate remuneration, and challenging work environments. CONCLUSION: There are insufficient numbers of nephrologists in South Africa, with a markedly uneven distribution amongst the provinces and healthcare sectors. Qualitative data indicate that South African nephrologists are faced with the challenges of a high workload, obstructive policies and unsatisfactory remuneration. In the public sector, a chronic lack of nephrologist posts and other resources are additional challenges. A substantial proportion of the workforce is contemplating emigration.

Breaking the Glass Ceiling in Simulation and Modeling: Women in Pharmaceutical Discovery.

The topic of gender equality within the United States workforce is receiving a great deal of attention. The field of chemistry is no exception and is increasingly focused on taking steps to achieve gender diversity within the chemistry workforce. Over the past several years, many computational chemistry groups within large pharmaceutical companies have realized growth in the number of women, and here we discuss the key factors that we believe have played a role in attracting and retaining the authors of this review as computational chemists in pharma. Furthermore, we combine our professional experiences in the context of how computational methodology and technology have evolved over the past decades and how that evolution has facilitated the inclusion of more women into the field. Our hope is to be a part of a solution and provide insight that will allow the chemistry workforce to continue to make steps forward in attaining gender diversity in the workplace.