Study on spatial distribution, regional differences and dynamic evolution of rural financial risk in China.

Based on panel data from 2009 to 2021, covering 30 provinces in China, we have been constructed the Rural Financial Risk Index using the objective entropy weighting method to study rural financial risk in China systematically from the perspective of spatial distribution. Specifically, we discuss the spatial distribution, regional differences and dynamic evolution of rural financial risk across Chinese four different regions divided into the Northeast, East, Central and West. It's found that Local government debt and Land transfer income are the two primary determinants influencing the level of rural financial risk in China. Furthermore, we conclude the ranking value of rural financial risk across four regions that the central exhibits the highest level, followed by the West, the East, and finally the Northeast, where the reasons for such ranking results as follows. Firstly, although the highest level of risk among provinces in the West is equivalent to that in the Central, there exists a smaller minimum rural financial risk in the former compared to the latter. Then, it should be noted that there's a low-low agglomeration of rural financial risk in the Northeast, while it demonstrates a high-high agglomeration in the Central according to the Moran Index test analysis. Again, there's a declining trend in rural financial risk disparity within the region and an upward trend is observed when comparing different regions (except the East vs West), especially increase largely between the Northeast and Central in past two years after analyzing the decomposition of Dagum Gini coefficient. Moreover, we study the absolute differences and dynamic evolution in different four regions through three-dimensional diagram of kernel density estimation, and it's found that the change of rural financial risk in four regions moved to the right as a whole, while the tail distribution remains inconspicuous. The absolute difference is diminishing in the Northeast, and the two-level differentiation characteristics tend to weaken as a whole in the Central, with a disordered wave peak height observed in both the East and West. Finally, the article presents pertinent policy implications but limitations according to the research findings.

WE economy: Potential of mutual aid distribution based on moral responsibility and risk vulnerability.

Reducing wealth inequality is a global challenge that requires the transformation of the economic systems that produce inequality. The economic system comprises: (1) gifts and reciprocity, (2) power and redistribution, (3) market exchange, and (4) mutual aid without reciprocal obligations. Current inequality stems from a capitalist economy consisting of (2) and (3). To sublimate (1), the human economy, to (4), the concept of a "mixbiotic society" has been proposed in the philosophical realm. In this society, free and diverse individuals mix, recognize their respective "fundamental incapability," and sublimate them into "WE" solidarity. Moreover, the economy must have a moral responsibility as a co-adventurer and consider its vulnerability to risk. This study focuses on two factors of mind perception-moral responsibility and risk vulnerability-and proposes a novel wealth distribution model between the two agents following an econophysical approach, whereas the conventional model dealt with redistribution through taxes and institutions. Three models are developed: a joint-venture model in which profit/losses are distributed based on their factors, a redistribution model in which wealth stocks are redistributed periodically based on their factors in the joint-venture model, and a "WE economy" model in which profit/losses are distributed based on the ratio of each other's factors. A simulation comparison reveals that WE economies are effective in reducing inequality, resilient in normalizing wealth distribution as advantages, and susceptible to free riders as disadvantages. However, this disadvantage can be compensated for by fostering fellowship and using joint ventures. This study presents the effectiveness of moral responsibility and risk vulnerability, complementarity between the WE economy and joint economy, and the direction of the economy in reducing inequality. Future challenges include developing an advanced model based on real economic analysis and economic psychology and promoting its fieldwork for worker coops and platform cooperatives to realize a desirable mixbiotic society.

Stochastic portfolio optimization: A regret-based approach on volatility risk measures: An empirical evidence from The New York stock market.

Portfolio optimization involves finding the ideal combination of securities and shares to reduce risk and increase profit in an investment. To assess the impact of risk in portfolio optimization, we utilize a significant volatility risk measure series. Behavioral finance biases play a critical role in portfolio optimization and the efficient allocation of stocks. Regret, within the realm of behavioral finance, is the feeling of remorse that causes hesitation in making significant decisions and avoiding actions that could lead to poor investment choices. This behavior often leads investors to hold onto losing investments for extended periods, refusing to acknowledge mistakes and accept losses. Ironically, by evading regret, investors may miss out on potential opportunities. in this paper, our purpose is to compare investment scenarios in the decision-making process and calculate the amount of regret obtained in each scenario. To accomplish this, we consider volatility risk metrics and utilize stochastic optimization to identify the most suitable scenario that not only maximizes yield in the investment portfolio and minimizes risk, but also minimizes resulting regret. To convert each multi-objective model into a single objective, we employ the augmented epsilon constraint (AEC) method to establish the Pareto efficiency frontier. As a means of validating the solution of this method, we analyze data spanning 20, 50, and 100 weeks from 150 selected stocks in the New York market based on fundamental analysis. The results show that the selection of the mad risk measure in the time horizon of 100 weeks with a regret rate of 0.104 is the most appropriate research scenario. this article recommended that investors diversify their portfolios by investing in a variety of assets. This can help reduce risk and increase overall returns and improve financial literacy among investors.

The performance of marginal structural models for estimating risk differences and relative risks using weighted univariate generalized linear models.

We used Monte Carlo simulations to compare the performance of marginal structural models (MSMs) based on weighted univariate generalized linear models (GLMs) to estimate risk differences and relative risks for binary outcomes in observational studies. We considered four different sets of weights based on the propensity score: inverse probability of treatment weights with the average treatment effect as the target estimand, weights for estimating the average treatment effect in the treated, matching weights and overlap weights. We considered sample sizes ranging from 500 to 10,000 and allowed the prevalence of treatment to range from 0.1 to 0.9. We examined both the robust variance estimator when using generalized estimating equations with an independent working correlation matrix and a bootstrap variance estimator for estimating the standard error of the risk difference and the log-relative risk. The performance of these methods was compared with that of direct weighting. Both the direct weighting approach and MSMs based on weighted univariate GLMs resulted in the identical estimates of risk differences and relative risks. When sample sizes were small to moderate, the use of an MSM with a bootstrap variance estimator tended to result in the most accurate estimates of standard errors. When sample sizes were large, the direct weighting approach and an MSM with a bootstrap variance estimator tended to produce estimates of standard error with similar accuracy. When using a MSM to estimate risk differences and relative risks, in general it is preferable to use a bootstrap variance estimator than the robust variance estimator. We illustrate the application of the different methods for estimating risks differences and relative risks using an observational study on the effect on mortality of discharge prescribing of a beta-blocker in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction.

Trends of alcohol-attributable deaths in Lithuania 2001-2021: epidemiology and policy conclusions.

BACKGROUND: Lithuania, a Baltic country in the European Union, can be characterized by high alcohol consumption and attributable burden. The aim of this contribution is to estimate the mortality burden due to alcohol use for the past two decades based on different relative risk functions, identify trends, and analyse the associations of alcohol-attributable burden with alcohol control policies and life expectancy. METHODS: The standard methodology used by the World Health Organization for estimating alcohol-attributable mortality was employed to generate mortality rates for alcohol-attributable mortality, standardized for Lithuania's 2021 population distribution. Joinpoint analysis, T-tests, correlations, and regression analyses including meta-regressions were used to describe trends and associations. RESULTS: Age-standardized alcohol-attributable mortality was high in Lithuania during the two decades between 2001 and 2021, irrespective of which relative risks were used for the estimates. Overall, there was a downward trend, mainly in males, which was associated with four years of intensive implementation of alcohol control policies in 2008, 2009, 2017, and 2018. For the remaining years, the rates of alcohol-attributable mortality were stagnant. Among males, the correlations between alcohol-attributable mortality and life expectancy were 0.90 and 0.76 for Russian and global relative risks respectively, and regression analyses indicated a significant association between changes in alcohol-attributable mortality and life expectancy, after controlling for gross domestic product. CONCLUSIONS: Male mortality and life expectancy in Lithuania were closely linked to alcohol-attributable mortality and markedly associated with strong alcohol control policies. Further implementation of such policies is predicted to lead to further improvements in life expectancy.

Future land use simulation model-based landscape ecological risk prediction under the localized shared socioeconomic pathways in the Xiangjiang River Basin, China.

Landscape ecological risk (LER) is an effective index to identify regional ecological risk and measure regional ecological security. The localized shared socioeconomic pathways (LSSPs) can provide multi-scenario parameters of social and economic development for LER research. The research of LER under LSSPs is of scientific significance and practical value in curbing the breeding and spread of LER risk areas. In this study, land-cover raster files from 2010 to 2020 were used as the foundational data. Future land use simulation (FLUS), regression, and Markov chain models were used to predict the land cover patterns under the five LSSP scenarios in the Xiangjiang River Basin (XJRB) in 2030. Thus, an evaluation model was established, and the LER of the watershed was evaluated. We found that the rate of land cover change (LCC) in the XJRB between 2010 and 2020 had a higher intensity (increasing at an average of 18.89% per decade) than that projected under the LSSPs for 2020-2030 (averaging an increase of 8.58% per decade). Among the growth rates of all land use types in the XJRB, that of urban land was the highest (33.3%). From 2010 to 2030, the LER in the XJRB was classified as lower risk (33.73%), lowest risk (33.11%), and moderate risk (24.13%) for each decade. Finally, the LER exhibited significant heterogeneity among different scenarios. Specifically, the percentages of regions characterized by the highest (9.77%) and higher LER (9.75%) were notably higher than those in the remaining scenarios. The higher-level risk area under the localized SSP1 demonstrated a clear spatial reduction compared to those of the other four scenarios. In addition, in order to facilitate the differential management and control of LER by relevant departments, risk zoning was carried out at the county level according to the prediction results of LER. And we got three types of risk management regions for the XJRB under the LSSPs.

Safety and Effectiveness Assessment of Ultraviolet-C Disinfection in Aircraft Cabins.

INTRODUCTION: Aircraft cabins, susceptible to disease transmission, require effective strategies to minimize the spread of airborne diseases. This paper reviews the James Reason Swiss Cheese Theory in mitigating these risks, as implemented by the International Civil Aviation Organization during the COVID-19 pandemic. It also evaluates the use of airborne ultraviolet-C (UV-C) light as an additional protective measure.METHODS: Our approach involved a thorough literature review by experts and a detailed risk-vs.-benefit analysis. The review covered existing research to understand the scientific foundation, while the analysis used established techniques to assess the impact of influenza and COVID-19 in terms of infections, deaths, and economic costs.RESULTS: Integrating UV-C light in aircraft cabins, when applied with appropriate scientific understanding and engineering safeguards, has the potential to reduce in-flight disease transmission. This additional mitigation strategy can work synergistically with existing measures.DISCUSSION: The research and risk-vs.-benefit analysis present strong evidence for the safety and effectiveness of continuous UV-C disinfection in aircraft cabins. It suggests that UV-C light, maintained below exposure limits, can be a valuable addition to existing measures against disease transmission during flights.Belland K, Garcia D, DeJohn C, Allen GR, Mills WD, Glaudel SP. Safety and effectiveness assessment of ultraviolet-C disinfection in aircraft cabins. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2024; 95(3):147-157.

[Research progress and countermeasures of cancer risk in police officers].

The people's police of public security organs shoulder the important mission of maintaining social security and stability, and ensuring the well-being of people. However, the working environment exposed to a variety of adverse factors has significantly increased the risk of cancer and cancer mortality of public security police, such as bladder cancer, prostate cancer, colon cancer, melanoma cancer, etc. Police related cancer risk research is a noteworthy issue. This article provides a review of existing research on the types and carcinogenic factors of cancer among domestic and foreign police officers, and analyzes various factors that may lead to their cancer based on the actual work situation of Chinese public security police. Corresponding response strategies are proposed to provide a scientific basis for reducing the risk of cancer among public security police.

Assessment of mould remediation in a healthcare setting following extensive flooding.

BACKGROUND: A new hospital building was close to completion when a large pipe carrying clean water broke, causing extensive flooding. AIM: To determine the flood-associated fungal risk to susceptible patients who would use that building. METHODS: Though standard flood remediation by the builders was relatively straightforward, there was no model for specialist assessment of patient risk due to the flood-associated mould growth. As levels of background airborne fungal spores can be expected to vary significantly over time, we could not use absolute levels to indicate either an excess of airborne fungal spores or successful remediation. Therefore it was decided to use weekly settle plates, exposed at the same time in flooded (test) and equivalent non-flooded (control) areas to compensate for variations in background levels. Flood-related risk was estimated by the ratio between fungal colonies on the test and control sets of settle plates, rather than absolute number. FINDINGS: Whereas the physical flood remediation, including the use of 'anti-fungal' treatments, was completed in three weeks post flooding, fungal contamination in flooded areas took 38 weeks to return to control levels and remained so for a further six weeks of observation. CONCLUSION: By the use of this method, we were able to assure the absence of flood-associated fungal risk to susceptible patients who would use that building. We recommend that infection prevention and control teams consider using this approach should they be faced with similar situations.

Does Physical Activity Confound Race Differences in Osteoarthritis-Related Functional Limitation?

OBJECTIVE: This study sought to determine the extent to which physical activity confounds the relation between race and the incidence of osteoarthritis (OA)-related functional limitation. METHODS: OA Initiative study participants with or at increased risk of knee OA who wore an accelerometer were included. Race was self-reported. Average time spent in moderate to vigorous physical activity (minutes per day) based on ActiGraph uniaxial accelerometer data was assessed. Functional limitation was based on the following: (1) inability to achieve a community walking speed (1.2 m/s) standard, (2) slow walking speed (<1.0 m/s), and (3) low physical functioning based on a Western Ontario and McMaster Universities OA Index (WOMAC) physical function score greater than 28 of 68. RESULTS: African American (AA) participants (n = 226), compared with White participants (n = 1348), had a higher likelihood of developing functional limitation based on various measures. When adjusted for time in moderate to vigorous physical activity, the association between AA race and inability to walk a community walking speed slightly decreased (from relative risk [RR] 2.15, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.64-2.81, to RR 1.99, 95% CI 1.51-2.61). Association between AA race and other measures of functional limitation mildly decreased (slow walking speed: from RR 2.06, 95% CI 1.40-3.01, to RR 1.82, 95% CI 1.25-2.63; low physical functioning: from RR 3.44, 95% CI 1.96-6.03, to RR 3.10, 95% CI 1.79-5.39). When further adjusted for demographic and other clinical variables, only the association between race and low physical functioning (WOMAC) significantly decreased and no longer met statistical significance. CONCLUSION: Greater physical activity is unlikely to completely make up for race differences in OA-related functional limitation, and other barriers to health equity need to be addressed.

Comparing the resource implications of old and new colorectal adenoma surveillance guidelines in Australia.

BACKGROUND: The latest update to the Australian adenoma surveillance guideline in 2018 introduced a novel risk stratification system with updated surveillance recommendations. The resource implications of adopting this new system are unclear. AIMS: To quanitfy the resource demands of adopting new over old adenoma surveillance guidelines. METHODS: We studied data from 2443 patients undergoing colonoscopies, in which a clinically significant lesion was identified in their latest, or previous procedure(s) across five Australian hospitals. We excluded procedures with inflammatory bowel disease, new or prior history of colorectal cancer or resection, inadequate bowel preparation and incomplete procedures. Old and new Australian surveillance intervals were calculated according to the number, size and histological characteristics of lesions identified. We used these data to compare the rate of procedures according to each guideline. RESULTS: Based on the procedures for 766 patients, the new surveillance guidelines significantly increased the number of procedures allocated an interval of 1 year (relative risk (RR): 1.57, P = 0.009) and 10 years (RR: 3.83, P < 0.00001) and reduced those allocated to half a year (RR: 0.08, P = 0.00219), 3 years (RR: 0.51, P < 0.00001) and 5 years (RR: 0.59, P < 0.00001). Overall, this reduced the relative number of surveillance procedures by 21% over 10 years (25.92 vs 32.78 procedures/100 patient-years), which increased to 22% after excluding patients 75 or older at the time of surveillance (19.9 vs 25.65 procedures/100 patient-years). CONCLUSION: The adoption of the latest Australian adenoma surveillance guidelines can reduce demand for surveillance colonoscopy by more than a fifth (21-22%) over 10 years.

Racial disparities in low-risk cesarean birth rates across hospitals.

BACKGROUND: We compared low-risk cesarean birth rates for Black and White women across hospitals serving increasing proportions of Black women and identified hospitals where Black women had low-risk cesarean rates less than or equal to White women. METHODS: In this cross-sectional analysis of secondary data from four states, we categorized hospitals by their proportion of Black women giving birth from "low" to "high". We analyzed the odds of low-risk cesarean for Black and White women across hospital categories. RESULTS: Our sample comprised 493 hospitals and the 65,524 Black and 251,426 White women at low risk for cesarean who birthed in them. The mean low-risk cesarean rate was significantly higher for Black, compared with White, women in the low (20.1% vs. 15.9%) and medium (18.1% vs. 16.9%) hospital categories. In regression models, no hospital structural characteristics were significantly associated with the odds of a Black woman having a low-risk cesarean. For White women, birthing in a hospital serving the highest proportion of Black women was associated with a 21% (95% CI: 1.01-1.44) increase in the odds of having a low-risk cesarean. DISCUSSION: Black women had higher odds of a low-risk cesarean than White women and were more likely to access care in hospitals with higher low-risk cesarean rates. The existence of hospitals where low-risk cesarean rates for Black women were less than or equal to those of White women was notable, given a predominant focus on hospitals where Black women have poorer outcomes. Efforts to decrease the low-risk cesarean rate should focus on (1) improving intrapartum care for Black women and (2) identifying differentiating organizational factors in hospitals where cesarean birth rates are optimally low and equivalent among racial groups as a basis for system-level policy efforts to improve equity and reduce cesarean birth rates.

Socioeconomic Disparities in the Association Between All-Cause Mortality and Health Check-Up Participation Among Healthy Middle-Aged Workers: A Nationwide Study.

BACKGROUND: This study assessed the relationship between non-participation in health check-ups and all-cause mortality and morbidity, considering socioeconomic status. METHODS: Healthy, middle-aged (35-54 years) working individuals who maintained either self-employed or employee status from 2006-2010 were recruited in this retrospective cohort study from the National Health Insurance Service in Korea. Health check-up participation was calculated as the sum of the number of health check-ups in 2007-2008 and 2009-2010. Adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of all-cause mortality were estimated for each gender using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models, adjusting for age, income, residential area, and employment status. Interaction of non-participation in health check-ups and employment status on the risk of all-cause mortality was further analyzed. RESULTS: Among 4,267,243 individuals with a median 12-year follow-up (median age, 44; men, 74.43%), 89,030 (2.09%) died. The proportion (number) of deaths of individuals with no, one-time, and two-time participation in health check-ups was 3.53% (n = 47,496), 1.66% (n = 13,835), and 1.33% (n = 27,699), respectively. The association between health check-up participation and all-cause mortality showed a reverse J-shaped curve with the highest adjusted HR (95% CI) of 1.575 (1.541-1.611) and 1.718 (1.628-1.813) for men and women who did not attend any health check-ups, respectively. According to the interaction analysis, both genders showed significant additive and multiplicative interaction, with more pronounced additive interaction among women who did not attend health check-ups (relative excess risk due to interaction, 1.014 [0.871-1.158]). CONCLUSION: Our study highlights the significant reverse J-shaped association between health check-up participation and all-cause mortality. A pronounced association was found among self-employed individuals, regardless of gender.

Contribution of smoking, disease history, and survival to lung cancer disparities in Black individuals.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths and disproportionately affects self-identified Black or African American ("Black") people, especially considering their relatively low self-reported smoking intensity rates. This study aimed to determine the relative impact of smoking history and lung cancer incidence risk, histology, stage, and survival on these disparities. METHODS: We used 2 lung cancer models (MichiganLung-All Races and MichiganLung-Black) to understand why Black people have higher rates of lung cancer deaths. We studied how different factors, such as smoking behaviors, cancer development, histology, stage at diagnosis, and lung cancer survival, contribute to these differences. RESULTS: Adjusted for smoking history, approximately 90% of the difference in lung cancer deaths between the overall and Black populations (born in 1960) was the result of differences in the risk of getting lung cancer. Differences in the histology and stage of lung cancer and survival had a small impact (4% to 6% for each). Similar results were observed for the 1950 and 1970 birth cohorts, regardless of their differences in smoking patterns from the 1960 cohort. CONCLUSIONS: After taking smoking into account, the higher rate of lung cancer deaths in Black people can mostly be explained by differences in the risk of developing lung cancer. As lung cancer treatments and detection improve, however, other factors may become more important in determining differences in lung cancer mortality between the Black and overall populations. To prevent current disparities from becoming worse, it is important to make sure that these improvements are available to everyone in an equitable way.

Ongoing declines for the world's amphibians in the face of emerging threats.

Systematic assessments of species extinction risk at regular intervals are necessary for informing conservation action1,2. Ongoing developments in taxonomy, threatening processes and research further underscore the need for reassessment3,4. Here we report the findings of the second Global Amphibian Assessment, evaluating 8,011 species for the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species. We find that amphibians are the most threatened vertebrate class (40.7% of species are globally threatened). The updated Red List Index shows that the status of amphibians is deteriorating globally, particularly for salamanders and in the Neotropics. Disease and habitat loss drove 91% of status deteriorations between 1980 and 2004. Ongoing and projected climate change effects are now of increasing concern, driving 39% of status deteriorations since 2004, followed by habitat loss (37%). Although signs of species recoveries incentivize immediate conservation action, scaled-up investment is urgently needed to reverse the current trends.

Risk-taking health agency places first bets.

ARPA-H aims to be unlike NIH, director says.