Research on the income and expenditure forecast of long-term care insurance fund in Shihezi City based on community care.

Objective: This study forecasts the income and expenditures of the long-term care insurance fund, provides a basis for formulating the raising standard of the long-term care insurance fund, and explores the measures to improve the pilot work of long-term care insurance. Methods: By using the exponential smoothing and ARIMA models to forecast the income and expenditure of the old-age care insurance fund in 2022, the problems existing in the operation of the long-term care insurance fund are discussed. Results: In 2022, the income of the old-age insurance fund was 28.8934 million yuan, and the fund compensation expenditure was 28.4070 million yuan, with a slight balance of the fund. The highest relative errors of income and expenditure forecast models are -2.03% and - 2.76%, respectively. According to the results of fund expenditure, the annual financing standard should be 132.93 yuan/person, and the individual financing standard should be 66.47 yuan/person. Conclusion: Through the integration of personal payment, welfare, sports lottery public welfare income, social donations, and other ways, we can gradually establish a multi-channel risk-sharing financing. We will appropriately raise the standard for individual financing and the annual contribution standard for individuals from 50 yuan to 66.47 yuan. This will promote sustainable development of long-term insurance system.

The impact of long-term care insurance on family care for older adults: The mediating role of intergenerational financial support.

Rapid population aging has been placing heavy tolls on Chinese family caregivers. Previous empirical evidence from multiple countries have shown that establishing national long-term care insurance was effective in reducing family care burdens. Utilizing data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) wave 2011 to 2018, this study examined the effects of implementing the pilot long-term care insurance program on family care received by the Chinese older adults, by using a time-varying Difference-in-Differences (DID) method. The results showed that: (1) the implementation of the pilot long-term care insurance program has led to a 17.2% decline in general for family care received by the Chinese older adults. (2) The effect of participating in the pilot program on family care received differed by respondent's household registration, health status, marital status, and possesion of retirement pension, and were specifically pronounced among those who were urban residents, having spouse, living with disabilities, and living with no retirement pension. (3) Further results from the mechanism analyses showed that the pilot long-term care insurance program decreased the level of family care by reducing the dual intergenerational financial support between older adults and their adult children. (4) Although participating in the pilot program decreased older adult's dependence on their adult children, their physical and mental health status were not negatively affected. This study contributes to the existing literature by evaluating the effects of implementing the pilot long-term care insurance program on family care received by the Chinese older adults, and lends supports to the previous studies that participating in long-term care insurance significantly reduces old adults' demand for family care, but not in sacrifice of their physical and mental well-being.

Long-term care needs and hospitalization costs with long-term care insurance: a mixed-sectional study.

Background: With the rapid aging of the population, the health needs of the older adult have increased significantly, resulting in the frequent occurrence of the "social hospitalization" problem, which has led to a rapid increase in hospitalization costs. This study investigates whether the "social hospitalization problem" arising from the long-term care needs can be solved through the implementation of long-term care insurance, thereby improving the overall health of the older adults and controlling the unreasonable increase in hospitalization costs. Methods: The entropy theory was used as a conceptual model, based on data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) in 2015 and 2018. The least-squares method was used to examine the relationship between long-term care needs and hospitalization costs, and the role that long-term care insurance implementation plays in its path of influence. Results: The results of this study indicated that long-term care needs would increase hospitalization cost, which remained stable after a series of tests, such as replacing the core explanatory variables and introducing fixed effects. Through the intermediary effect test and mediated adjustment effect test, we found the action path of long-term care needs on hospitalization costs. Long-term care needs increases hospitalization costs through more hospitalizations. Long-term care insurance reduces hospitalization costs. Its specific action path makes long-term care insurance reduce hospitalization costs through a negative adjustment of the number of hospitalizations. Conclusion: To achieve fair and sustainable development of long-term care insurance, the following points should be achieved: First, long-term care insurance should consider the prevention in advance and expand the scope of participation and coverage; Second, long-term care insurance should consider the control in the event and set moderate levels of treatment payments; Third, long-term care insurance should consider post-supervision and explore appropriate payment methods.

Review of evolution of the public long-term care insurance (LTCI) system in different countries: influence and challenge.

BACKGROUND: The growing demand for LTC (Long-term care) services for disabled elderly has become a daunting task for countries worldwide, especially China, where population aging is particularly severe. According to CSY (China Statistical Yearbook,2019), the elderly aged 65 or above has reached 167 million in 2018, and the number of disabled elderly is as high as 54%. Germany and other countries have alleviated the crisis by promoting the public LTCI (Long-Term Care Insurance) system since the 1990s, while China's public LTCI system formal pilot only started in 2016. Therefore, the development of the public LTCI system has gradually become a hot topic for scholars in various countries, including China. METHODS: This review has been systematically sorted the existing related literature to discuss the development of public LTCI (Long-Term Care Insurance)system form four aspects, namely, the comparison of public LTCI systems in different countries, the influence of public LTCI, challenge of public LTCI, and the relationship between public LTCI and private LTCI. We searched some databases including Web of Science Core Collection, Medline, SCOPUS, EBSCO, EMBASE, ProQuest and PubMed from January 2008 to September 2020. The quality of 38 quantitative and 21 qualitative articles was evaluated using the CASP(Critical Appraisal Skills Programme) critical evaluation checklist. RESULTS: The review systematically examines the development of public LTCI system from four aspects, namely, the comparison of public LTCI systems in different countries, the influence of public LTCI, the challenge of public LTCI, and the relationship between public LTCI and private LTCI. For example, LTCI has a positive effect on the health and life quality of the disabled elderly. However, the role of LTCI in alleviating the financial burden on families with the disabled elderly may be limited. CONCLUSION: Some policy implications on the future development of China's LTCI system can be obtained. For example, the government should fully consider the constraints such as price rise, the elderly disability rate, and the substantial economic burden. It also can strengthen the effective combination of public LTCI and private LTCI. It does not only help to expand the space for its theoretical research but also to learn the experiences in the practice of the LTCI system in various countries around the world. It will significantly help the smooth development and further promote the in-depth reform of the LTCI system in China.

Stepping into the Breach of Federal Inaction: Reforming the Financing of Long-Term Services and Supports in the Post-CLASS Era.

The growing need for long-term services and supports (LTSS) poses significant challenges to both individuals and government. This article documents the continuing failure to tackle this problem at the national level-a failure that was most recently seen in the fallout from the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which included the single piece of national legislation ever enacted to comprehensively address LTSS costs: the Community Living Assistance Services and Supports (CLASS) Act. The CLASS Act was passed as part of the ACA (Title 8) but was repealed in 2013. Following its demise, policy experts and some Democrats have made additional proposals for addressing the LTSS financing crisis. Moreover, significant government action is taking place at the state level, both to relieve financial and emotional burdens on LTSS recipients and their families and to ease pressure on state Medicaid budgets. Lessons from these initiatives could serve as opportunities for learning how to overcome roadblocks to successful policy development, adoption, and implementation across states and for traversing the policy and political tradeoffs should a policy window once again open for addressing the problem of LTSS financing nationally.

The effects of raising the long-term care insurance co-payment rate on the utilization of long-term care services.

AIM: The effect of raising insurance co-payment rates on healthcare service utilization in Japan remains unclear. In this study, we utilized patient-level long-term care (LTC) insurance claims data to analyze these effects. METHODS: Claims data were obtained on individuals certified as requiring LTC in City A and City B, Fukuoka Prefecture, Japan during August 2014-July 2016. Individuals whose LTC insurance co-payment rate increased from 10% to 20% in August 2015 were regarded as high-income individuals; individuals whose co-payment rate remained at 10% were regarded as non-high-income individuals. We examined the changes in LTC service utilization between high-income individuals and non-high-income individuals during the study period. Monthly LTC insurance charges were analyzed to evaluate service utilization. We created monthly panel data for the study participants, and quantified the differences in LTC service utilization before and after August 2015 between the high-income and non-high-income groups. Care needs levels and age were included as covariates in a fixed-effects model. RESULTS: The sample comprised 7711 individuals (1000 high-income individuals and 6711 non-high-income individuals) in City A and 647 individuals (84 high-income individuals and 563 non-high-income individuals) in City B. After adjusting for care needs levels and age, the co-payment rate increase was associated with reductions in monthly LTC insurance charges of $34.3 (P < 0.001) in City A and $91.0 (P = 0.022) in City B. CONCLUSION: The increase in co-payment rate for high-income individuals in August 2015 negatively affected their utilization of LTC services. Geriatr Gerontol Int ••; ••: ••-•• Geriatr Gerontol Int 2020; ••: ••-••.

Addressing Long-Term Services and Supports Reform via Medicare. Yes, Medicare, That Post-Acute Care Program.

Reform of the U.S. long-term services and supports (LTSS) financing system has been historically difficult to achieve. This article outlines several recent reform proposals and offers a path forward on achieving LTSS reform. These proposals include the Commonwealth Fund's Medicare Help at Home proposal, the work of the Bipartisan Policy Center, as well as the State of Minnesota to develop an LTSS benefit. All three proposals focus on an expansion of Medicare to cover the LTSS needs of Americans. While Medicare increasingly pays for LTSS, these approaches ensure that the role of Medicare in LTSS financing is much more coordinated. Enhancing Medicare's role reduces the current reliance on Medicaid, the default payer of LTSS, while providing an opportunity for a more robust private insurance market to develop. This would help provide for the immediate LTSS needs of Americans while building a more sustainable and equitable financing system for future generations.

What Affects the Demand for Long-Term Care Insurance? A Study of Middle-Aged and Older Adults in Hong Kong.

Despite the potential of private insurance in financing long-term care (LTC), its coverage remains rather limited. This study is built on a comprehensive framework to examine the demand for LTC insurance in Hong Kong, a rapidly aging Asian society. A telephone survey was conducted in 2016 to collect data that formed a sample of 1,474 middle-aged and older adults. Multivariate analysis reveals more nuanced characteristics of Hong Kong middle-aged and older adults who tend to show a demand for LTC insurance, including: (a) being younger, better educated, relatively high status, and financially literate; (b) living with children but reluctant to be a burden on the family; (c) being in a better financial situation and able to afford premiums; and (d) anticipation of LTC needs and dependence, and a preference for formal care. This study offers preliminary evidence to understand the demand structure of the LTC insurance market in an Asian society.

Consumer Numeracy and Insurance Design Decisions: An Examination of Inflation Protection Take-Up Among Private Long-Term Care Insurance Policy Holders.

Given the rising cost of long-term care (LTC) services, the selection of a private long-term care insurance (LTCi) policy with inflation protection has critical implications for the ability of this coverage to protect against potentially catastrophic LTC expenses. This study examines the effect of consumers' numeric abilities on the decision to add inflation protection to private LTCi policies. Over 40% of current LTCi policies lack inflation protection. Higher scores on a three-question numeracy scale are associated with increases in the probability of choosing inflation protection at the time of policy purchase, with households answering all three questions correctly being 12 percentage points more likely to have this benefit type relative to those with a numeracy score of 0 (p = .002). Market reforms that simplify the task of evaluating LTCi plans and assessing the value of indexed benefits may be needed to ensure that LTCi policy purchasers are selecting adequate protection against future LTC costs.

Non-participation in health checkup and Kihon Checklist predicts loss of certification-free survival in community-dwelling older adults.

AIM: Despite efforts toward health promotion and preventive care for older adults, including health checkups and postal Kihon Checklist survey, one fifth of community-dwelling older adults do not participate in them. The aim of the present study was to examine the relationship between this non-participation and the end of certification-free survival in older adults. METHODS: In a cohort of 4120 older adults with no prior history of Long-Term Care Insurance certification, the associations of non-participation with risk of later death without certification and support/care-need certification for 72 months were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards analysis. RESULTS: Of them, 4022 (mean age 72.7 years, 54.7% women) were followed up (97.6%). At baseline, 1072 received health checkups, 2085 replied to the Kihon Checklist alone and 865 did not participate. During 72 months, 310 deaths without certification and 701 certifications occurred. After adjustment, non-participating individuals had significantly higher hazard ratios for death up to 72 months and for certification up to 36 months, compared with the other two groups. The Kruskal-Wallis test showed associations of increasing incidence of certification due to stroke in pre-old (aged 65-74 years) men for 72 months, and due to arthralgia/fracture and dementia in old (aged ≥75 years) women for 24 months, with non-participation in health promotions. Certified non-participating individuals incurred higher estimated Long-Term Care Insurance expenditure per person for 72 months, especially in pre-old men and old women. CONCLUSIONS: Health promotion by health checkup and even Kihon Checklist survey increases certification-free survival in older residents, and decreases Long-Term Care Insurance expenditure. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2019; 19: 1206-1214.

Effects of a water-based exercise program on disability prevention in older Japanese adults.

AIM: This study aimed to evaluate the potential preventive effects of a water-based exercise program on disability in community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: The study design was a propensity score-matched retrospective study. Older adults were contacted through a mail survey carried out by City Hall, and those who scored ≥3 points on the physical domain of the Kihon Checklist were encouraged to participate in the water-based exercise program. The program consisted of aerobic and walking exercises in the water for 1 h, once a week for 6 months. Propensity scores were used to match individuals who participated in the exercise program with control individuals based on age, sex, height, weight, body mass index and Kihon Checklist score. Among matched pairs, the study included 278 participants (control group 139, intervention group 139). The main outcome was the number of participants who received a new long-term care insurance certification during the first follow-up year, which was used to indicate disability. RESULTS: Of the 278, 13 participants (5.5%) required long-term care insurance certification. A significantly smaller proportion of intervention group members required long-term care insurance certification (intervention group 0.7% [1/139 participants] vs control group 8.6% [12/139 participants], P = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Water-based exercise program appears to effectively prevent disability in community-dwelling older adults. Because water-based exercise program is associated with a minimal burden on joints and lower risk of falling, it might particularly enable the prevention of disability in older adults with chronic pain and restricted mobility. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2019; 19: 1282-1288.

Evaluation of Long-Term Care Insurance Policy in Chinese Pilot Cities.

Since 2016, 15 pilot cities in China have implemented a long-term care insurance (LTCI) policy. The aim of this research was to explore the outcomes and evaluate the performance of the LTCI policy in the Chinese pilot cities and estimate the willingness of Chinese citizens to expand the formal implementation of LTCI policy in China. We gathered data from 1500 elderly people aged over 60 years in 15 pilot cities (100 surveys for each city) and the effective response rate was 77.8% (1167/1500). We relied on statistical analysis to elicit the outcomes and performance of LTCI implementation and an ordinal logit regression to analyze the factors associated with the extension of the LTCI policy. We examined factors associated with the perception according to sex, age, degree of disability, choices of care, living location, number of children, and monthly income. Among these factors, the relationship between living location and number of children of the family and the outcomes and performance of the LTCI policy in the pilot cities was significant. The rest of the factors showed no significance with the implementation of the LTCI in Chinese pilot cities. This study is among the first to explore the attitudes of Chinese citizens among those who have benefited from the LTCI policy in the pilot cities and contributes to identifying the outcomes of the LTCI in pilot cities to assist policymakers in their further implementation in China.

Increase in direct social care costs of Alzheimer's disease in Japan depending on dementia severity.

AIM: With the aging population, costs of direct social support for patients with Alzheimer's disease have grown and will continue to increase. The purpose of the present study was to estimate the cost of direct social support for Alzheimer's disease under long-term care insurance in Japan. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included 169 patients with Alzheimer's disease or mild cognitive impairment who visited a memory clinic and were followed over time. Dementia severity, use of care services and costs were analyzed. RESULTS: The use of direct social support and costs increased significantly between patients with mild, moderate and severe dementia (P < 0.001). In particular, the use of day services and short stay services increased with the severity of dementia (P < 0.001). Similar findings were obtained when participants were stratified by long-term care insurance care levels. Of 169 participants, 49 had not applied for long-term care insurance, although their dementia severity was not different from support-need level 1 and care-need level 1. Logistic regression analysis of "did not apply" and "applied and certified" groups showed significant differences not only in dementia severity, but also in age (odds ratio 1.112, 95% confidence interval 1.037-1.193, P = 0.003) and living arrangements (odds ratio 0.257, 95% confidence interval 0.076-0.862, P = 0.028). CONCLUSIONS: As the number of patients with Alzheimer's disease increases, direct social costs will increase. The findings of this study might help standardize the type of direct social support provided after diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease and contribute to the development of cost-effective care for these patients. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2019; 19: 1023-1029.

Financing Long-term Care: Lessons From Japan.

Long-term care (LTC) must be carefully delineated when expenditures are compared across countries because how LTC services are defined and delivered differ in each country. LTC's objectives are to compensate for functional decline and mitigate the care burden of the family. Governments have tended to focus on the poor but Germany opted to make LTC universally available in 1995/1996. The applicant's level of dependence is assessed by the medical team of the social insurance plan. Japan basically followed this model but, unlike Germany where those eligible may opt for cash benefits, they are limited to services. Benefits are set more generously in Japan because, prior to its implementation in 2000, health insurance had covered long-stays in hospitals and there had been major expansions of social services. These service levels had to be maintained and be made universally available for all those meeting the eligibility criteria. As a result, efforts to contain costs after the implementation of the LTC Insurance have had only marginal effects. This indicates it would be more efficient and equitable to introduce public LTC Insurance at an early stage before benefits have expanded as a result of ad hoc policy decisions.

What Do Clinicians Caring for Aging Patients Need to Know About Private Long-Term Care Insurance?

Preparing for future long-term care (LTC) needs is a critical component of successful aging. Clinicians with aging patient panels may be a valuable source of information about the importance of LTC planning and the mechanisms available to do so, including private LTC insurance (LTCi). This article provides an overview, from a clinician's perspective, of current LTC financing and the key questions patients should consider when assessing LTCi. Although actual purchasing decisions likely require support from impartial financial experts, clinicians may be well positioned to help initiate difficult conversations about LTC planning and point patients to unbiased resources concerning LTCi. J Am Geriatr Soc 67:2167-2173, 2019.

Evaluation of the South Korean national long-term care insurance-funded cognitive function training programme for older people with mild dementia.

OBJECTIVES: despite the extensive literature on the effectiveness of cognitive training, its effectiveness has not been demonstrated within a population-based long-term care system. To provide cognitive training services to older people with mild dementia, Korea introduced a special dementia rating, as a long-term care grades, in the national long-term care insurance in July 2014. These services are only offered to those with the special dementia rating. This study evaluated the national long-term care insurance-funded cognitive function training programme for older people with mild dementia. METHODS: data were derived from the Korean National Health Insurance Elderly Cohort database between 2008 and 2015. We compared changes in function between the intervention (n = 352) and control (n = 1952) groups before (2014) and after (2015) introduction of the cognitive function training programme. Difference-in-differences analysis was performed, to compare changes in each score between the intervention and control groups before and after introduction of the cognitive function training programme. RESULTS: introduction of the cognitive function training programme was associated with significantly less cognitive function decline in the intervention group than in the control groups (ß = -3.39; standard errors [SE] = 1.14; P = 0.003). A subgroup analysis revealed that this effect increased in subjects in the youngest group, low income bracket, who had a primary caregiver, who were supported in multiple activities of daily living by the primary caregiver, or who were not living alone. CONCLUSIONS: introduction of the cognitive function training programme was associated with positive effects on cognitive function.

[Estimation of duration of formal long-term care among frail elderly people in Japanese communities using national long-term care insurance claims records].

Objective　The aim of this nationwide study was to estimate the duration of formal long-term care, provided by Japanese long-term care insurance (LTCI) services, among frail Japanese elderly people living in the community.Methods　The study subjects were 2,188,397 (men: 579,422, women: 1,124,022, age≥65 years) beneficiaries who used LTCI services for community living in June 2013. The duration of LTCI services for community living per diem per capita was estimated by converting the benefit amount to duration of care using the code for service in claims bills according to gender and care levels, which are a nationally certified classification of individual needs for long-term care (care level 1: lowest need, care level 5: highest need). Subsequently, LTCI services for community living were categorized into respite services and community services. Community services were further subcategorized into home visiting services and daycare services.Results　The overall average duration of formal care per diem per capita for men and women were 97.4 and 112.7 minutes for care level 1, 118.3 and 149.1 for care level 2, 186.9 and 246.4 for care level 3, 215.2 and 273.2 for care level 4, and 213.1 and 261.4 for care level 5, respectively. Length of respite services increased gradually with care level, whereas duration of community services peaked at care level 3 and decreased at care levels 4 and 5. With regard to the community service subcategories, duration of home visiting services increased with care level, but duration of daycare services peaked at care level 3.Conclusion　Although the care levels in the LCTI system are designed to assess the need for formal care in terms of duration of care, our results suggest that the use of formal LTCI services for community living is not vertically equitable. Services that efficiently increase duration of formal care for those with higher needs for care may improve the equity and sustainability of formal long-term care services for community living.

Remaining At Home With Severe Disability.

A person with primary progressive multiple sclerosis manages a complex scheme of personal assistance services to remain living at home.

Moral hazard under zero price policy: evidence from Japanese long-term care claims data.

We evaluate the presence and magnitude of moral hazard in Japan's public long-term care insurance (LTCI) market. Using monthly LTCI claim records from January 2006 to December 2015 linked to concurrent death records, we construct a sample by propensity score matching insured individuals who co-pay 10% of their fees to those with no required copayments, and we implement fixed-effect estimations. We find that a ten-percentage-point reduction in the copayment rate increases monthly costs by 10.2 thousand yen, corresponding to a price elasticity of about - 0.1. Insured individuals with no copayments tend to use more services and have more utilization days than those with copayments do. Furthermore, we find that insured individuals who die from cerebral (myocardial) infarction increase their service use more in response to a reduction in the copayment rate than those who die from senility do, indicating a positive association between ex-ante health risks and ex-post service use. We verify that a cost-sharing adjustment is a valid solution for soaring LTCI expenditures. These findings could provide broad implications for the rapidly aging world.

The associations of multimorbidity with the sum of annual medical and long-term care expenditures in Japan.

BACKGROUND: The occurrence of multimorbidity (i.e., the coexistence of multiple chronic diseases) increases with age in older adults and is a growing concern worldwide. Multimorbidity has been reported to be a driving factor in the increase of medical expenditures in OECD countries. However, to the best of our knowledge, there is no published research that has examined the associations between multimorbidity and either long-term care (LTC) expenditure or the sum of medical and LTC expenditures worldwide. We, therefore, aimed to examine the associations of multimorbidity with the sum of medical and LTC expenditures for older adults in Japan. METHODS: Medical insurance claims data for adults ≥75 years were merged with LTC insurance claims data from Kashiwa city, a suburb in the Tokyo metropolitan area, for the period between April 2012 and September 2013 to obtain an estimate of medical and LTC expenditures. We also calculated the 2011 updated and reweighted version of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) scores. Then, we performed multiple generalized linear regressions to examine the associations of CCI scores (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or ≥ 5) with the sum of annual medical and LTC expenditures, adjusting for age, sex, and household income level. RESULTS: The mean sum of annual medical and LTC expenditures was ¥1,086,000 (US$12,340; n = 30,042). Medical and LTC expenditures accounted for 66 and 34% of the sum, respectively. Every increase in one unit of the CCI scores was associated with a ¥257,000 (US$2920); 95% Confidence Interval: ¥242,000, 271,000 (US$2750, 3080) increase in the sum of the expenditures (p < 0.001; n = 29,915). CONCLUSIONS: Using a merged medical and LTC claims dataset, we found that greater CCI scores were associated with a higher sum of annual medical and LTC expenditures for older adults. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to examine the associations of multimorbidity with LTC expenditures or the sum of medical and LTC expenditures worldwide. Our study indicated that the economic burden on society caused by multimorbidity could be better evaluated by the sum of medical and LTC expenditures, rather than medical expenditures alone.