Estimating Breast Cancer Overdiagnosis After Screening Mammography Among Older Women in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Overdiagnosis is increasingly recognized as a harm of breast cancer screening, particularly for older women. OBJECTIVE: To estimate overdiagnosis associated with breast cancer screening among older women by age. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study comparing the cumulative incidence of breast cancer among older women who continued screening in the next interval with those who did not. Analyses used competing risk models, stratified by age. SETTING: Fee-for-service Medicare claims, linked to the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) program. PATIENTS: Women 70 years and older who had been recently screened. MEASUREMENTS: Breast cancer diagnoses and breast cancer death for up to 15 years of follow-up. RESULTS: This study included 54 635 women. Among women aged 70 to 74 years, the adjusted cumulative incidence of breast cancer was 6.1 cases (95% CI, 5.7 to 6.4) per 100 screened women versus 4.2 cases (CI, 3.5 to 5.0) per 100 unscreened women. An estimated 31% of breast cancer among screened women were potentially overdiagnosed. For women aged 75 to 84 years, cumulative incidence was 4.9 (CI, 4.6 to 5.2) per 100 screened women versus 2.6 (CI, 2.2 to 3.0) per 100 unscreened women, with 47% of cases potentially overdiagnosed. For women aged 85 and older, the cumulative incidence was 2.8 (CI, 2.3 to 3.4) among screened women versus 1.3 (CI, 0.9 to 1.9) among those not, with up to 54% overdiagnosis. We did not see statistically significant reductions in breast cancer-specific death associated with screening. LIMITATIONS: This study was designed to estimate overdiagnosis, limiting our ability to draw conclusions on all benefits and harms of screening. Unmeasured differences in risk for breast cancer and differential competing mortality between screened and unscreened women may confound results. Results were sensitive to model specifications and definition of a screening mammogram. CONCLUSION: Continued breast cancer screening was associated with greater incidence of breast cancer, suggesting overdiagnosis may be common among older women who are diagnosed with breast cancer after screening. Whether harms of overdiagnosis are balanced by benefits and for whom remains an important question. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Cancer Institute.

Global thyroid cancer incidence trend and age-period-cohort model analysis based on Global Burden of Disease Study from 1990 to 2019.

Background: In view of the rapid increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer (TC) and the spread of overdiagnosis around the world, the quantitative evaluation of the effect of age, period and birth cohort on the incidence of TC, and the analysis of the role of different factors in the incidence trend can provide scientific basis and data support for the national health departments to formulate reasonable prevention and treatment policies. Methods: The study collated the global burden disease study data of TC incidence from 1990 to 2019, and used APC model to analyze the contribution of age, period and birth cohort to the incidence trend of TC. Results: There was an obvious unfavorable upward trend in terms of age and cohort effect all over the world. Since 2007, the growth rate of risk slowed down and the risk in female even decreased since 2012, which mainly contributed to the developed countries. In all SDI countries, 2002 is the dividing point of risk between male and female. In 2019, The global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of TC in the 5 SDI countries all showed a significant upward trend, with the largest upward trend in the middle SDI countries. Conclusion: The trend of rapid increase in the incidence of TC has begun to slow down, but the global incidence of TC has obvious gender and regional/national heterogeneity. Policy makers should tailor specific local strategies to the risk factors of each country to further reduce the burden of TC.

Discriminative capacity of guideline recommendations in the assessment of patients with asymptomatic microhematuria.

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVE: Asymptomatic microhematuria (aMh) remains a diagnostic challenge in urological practice: while aMh is a risk factor of urothelial carcinoma (UC), prevalence of aMh is high. Guidelines were developed to permit risk stratification and reduce diagnostic workload. This study investigates the efficacy of several recommendations. MATERIAL & METHODS: Sixty hundred eight patients with newly diagnosed aMh without previous UC from an academic referral center (A; n = 320) and a private outpatient clinic (B; n = 288) were included. All patients underwent clinical workup including medical history, urine cytology, upper tract imaging and cystoscopy. Eleven former and current guidelines were applied to each patient individually; every patient was classified as either low risk (no further workup recommended) or high risk. Furthermore, a recently developed nomogram for hematuria assessment was included. RESULTS: The cohort comprised 142 females and 466 males (mean age 62 [range 18-92] years). Sixty-one patients (10.0%) were diagnosed with UC. Excluding the Swedish and recent NICE guideline generally advising against urologic workup, application of 9 other recommendations would have diagnosed all UCs and saved 1.6% to 16.1% of patients from workup. For the 2020 US guideline, solely applied to cohort B, 10.6% of patients were classified as low risk. The use of the nomogram would have saved 17.1% to 25% of patients from workup. CONCLUSIONS: Practical relevance of current guidelines is limited as they do not sufficiently identify patients not requiring clinical work up. Thus, guideline adherence may trigger overdiagnosis and even overtreatment. New ways of risk stratification are needed to improve aMh assessment.

[Screening and diagnostic assessment of ADHD in adults - risks associated with both underdiagnosis and overdiagnosis]. / Screening och utredning ­ risk för både över- och underdiagnostik.

ADHD in adults is commonly associated with severe impairments in many major life activities, and an adequate diagnosis is a first step towards treatment and support. Negative consequences follow both underdiagnosis and overdiagnosis of adult ADHD, which can be confused with other psychiatric diagnoses and sometimes overlooked in people with high intellectual capacity, and in women in general. In a clinical practice, most physicians meet adults with ADHD - with or without a diagnosis - and therefore need competence in screening of ADHD in adults. Experienced clinicians conduct the consequent diagnostic assessment, to reduce risk of both underdiagnosis and overdiagnosis. Several national and international clinical guidelines summarize evidence-based practices for adults with ADHD. European Network Adult ADHD, ENAA, revised consensus statement recommends pharmacological treatment and psychoeducation as a first step after ADHD diagnosis in adulthood.

Trends in fever case management for febrile inpatients in a low malaria incidence setting of Tanzania.

OBJECTIVES: In 2010, WHO published guidelines emphasising parasitological confirmation of malaria before treatment. We present data on changes in fever case management in a low malaria transmission setting of northern Tanzania after 2010. METHODS: We compared diagnoses, treatments and outcomes from two hospital-based prospective cohort studies, Cohort 1 (2011-2014) and Cohort 2 (2016-2019), that enrolled febrile children and adults. All participants underwent quality-assured malaria blood smear-microscopy. Participants who were malaria smear-microscopy negative but received a diagnosis of malaria or received an antimalarial were categorised as malaria over-diagnosis and over-treatment, respectively. RESULTS: We analysed data from 2098 participants. The median (IQR) age was 27 (3-43) years and 1047 (50.0%) were female. Malaria was detected in 23 (2.3%) participants in Cohort 1 and 42 (3.8%) in Cohort 2 (p = 0.059). Malaria over-diagnosis occurred in 334 (35.0%) participants in Cohort 1 and 190 (17.7%) in Cohort 2 (p < 0.001). Malaria over-treatment occurred in 528 (55.1%) participants in Cohort 1 and 196 (18.3%) in Cohort 2 (p < 0.001). There were 30 (3.1%) deaths in Cohort 1 and 60 (5.4%) in Cohort 2 (p = 0.007). All deaths occurred among smear-negative participants. CONCLUSION: We observed a substantial decline in malaria over-diagnosis and over-treatment among febrile inpatients in northern Tanzania between two time periods after 2010. Despite changes, some smear-negative participants were still diagnosed and treated for malaria. Our results highlight the need for continued monitoring of fever case management across different malaria epidemiological settings in sub-Saharan Africa.

Assessment of the Diagnostic Performance of Endoscopic Ultrasonography After Conventional Endoscopy for the Evaluation of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Invasion Depth.

Importance: Distinguishing between mucosal and submucosal cancers is important for selecting the optimal treatment for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC); however, standard procedures for diagnosing cancer invasion depth have not yet been determined. Objective: To evaluate the diagnostic performance of endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) after conventional endoscopy for the evaluation of ESCC invasion depth. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective single-arm confirmatory diagnostic study comprising 372 patients with T1 esophageal cancer was conducted at 41 secondary or tertiary hospitals in Japan. Enrollment began on July 20, 2017; patients were enrolled in 2 steps, with the first registration occurring from August 4, 2017, to December 11, 2019, and the second from August 9, 2017, to December 11, 2019. After the completion of all first and second registration examinations, patients received treatment and were followed up for 30 days, with follow-up ending on February 14, 2020. Patients were eligible for inclusion if they had pathologically or endoscopically diagnosed esophageal cancer with T1 clinical depth of invasion. Interventions: In the first registration, nonmagnifying endoscopy (non-ME) and magnifying endoscopy (ME) were used to diagnose cancer invasion depth. In the second registration, patients from the first registration who had cancers invading the muscularis mucosa or submucosa were enrolled and received EUS. After completion of the protocol examinations, patients received treatment with endoscopic resection or esophagectomy. The pathological results of the resected specimens were used as the reference standard for evaluating cancer invasion depth. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was the proportion of overdiagnosis of submucosal cancer (defined as invasion depth >200 µm) after receipt of non-ME and ME, with or without the addition of EUS. The secondary end points were underdiagnosis, sensitivity, and specificity. Results: Among 372 patients enrolled in the first registration, 371 received non-ME and ME. Of those, 300 patients were enrolled in the second registration, and 293 patients received EUS. A total of 269 patients (217 men [80.7%]; median age, 69 years; interquartile range, 62-75 years) were included in the final analysis. The addition of EUS was associated with a 6.6% increase in the proportion of overdiagnosis (from 16 of 74 patients [21.6%; 95% CI, 12.9%-32.7%] after non-ME and ME to 29 of 103 patients [28.2%; 95% CI, 19.7%-37.9%] after the addition of EUS; 1-sided P = .93). All subgroup analyses found similar increases in overdiagnosis of submucosal cancer. The addition of EUS was associated with a 4.5% reduction in the proportion of underdiagnosis (from 57 of 195 patients [29.2%; 95% CI, 23.0%-36.2%] after non-ME and ME to 41 of 166 patients [24.7%; 95% CI, 18.3%-32.0%] after the addition of EUS). After non-ME and ME, diagnostic sensitivity was 50.4% (95% CI, 41.0%-59.9%), specificity was 89.6% (95% CI, 83.7%-93.9%), and accuracy was 72.9% (95% CI, 67.1%-78.1%). After the addition of EUS, diagnostic sensitivity was 64.3% (95% CI, 54.9%-73.1%), specificity was 81.2% (95% CI, 74.1%-87.0%), and accuracy was 74.0% (95% CI, 68.3%-79.1%). Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that the addition of EUS was not associated with improvements in the diagnostic accuracy of cancer invasion depth. These findings do not support the routine use of EUS after conventional endoscopy for evaluating the invasion depth among patients with T1 ESCC.

Next-Generation Sequencing Panel for 1p/19q Codeletion and IDH1-IDH2 Mutational Analysis Uncovers Mistaken Overdiagnoses of 1p/19q Codeletion by FISH.

The 1p/19q codeletion is the result of a translocation between chromosome 1 (Chr1p) and chromosome 19 (Chr19q) with the loss of derivative (1;19)(p10;q10) chromosome. The 1p/19q codeletion has predictive and prognostic significance, and it is essential for the classification of gliomas. In routine practice, the fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) diagnosis of 1p/19q codeletion is sometimes unexpected. This study aimed to develop a next-generation sequencing panel for the concurrent definition of the 1p/19q codeletion and IDH1/IDH2 mutation status to resolve these equivocal cases. A total of 65 glioma samples were investigated using a 1p/19q-single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-IDH panel. The panel consists of 192 amplicons, including SNPs mapping to Chr1 and Chr19 and amplicons for IDH1/IDH2 analysis. The 1p/19q SNP-IDH panel consistently identified IDH1/IDH2 mutations. In 49 of 60 cases (81.7%), it provided the same 1p/19q results obtained by FISH. In the remaining 11 cases, the 1p/19q SNP-IDH panel uncovered partial chromosome imbalances as a result of interstitial amplification or deletion of the regions where the FISH probes map, leading to a mistaken overdiagnosis of 1p/19q codeletion by FISH. The 1p/19q SNP-IDH next-generation sequencing panel allows reliable analysis of the 1p/19q codeletion and IDH1/IDH2 mutation at the same time. The panel not only allows resolution of difficult cases but also represents a cost-effective alternative to standard molecular diagnostics procedures.

Assessing a patient's individual risk of biopsy-detectable prostate cancer: Be aware of case mix heterogeneity and a priori likelihood.

The relation between prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and other relevant prebiopsy information is often combined in a risk calculator (RC). If the setting for RC use differs from that in which it was developed, there is a risk of making clinical decisions based on incorrect estimates of the absolute risk. The ERSPC-MRI RC predicts clinically significant prostate cancer (csPC; Gleason ≥ 3 + 4) on targeted and systematic biopsy using information on PSA, digital rectal examination, prostate volume, age, previous negative biopsy, and Prostate Imaging-Recording and Data System score. This calculator was developed on a clinical cohort of 961 men (2012-2017) with a csPC prevalence of 36%. Discrimination was good (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.84). With the increasing use of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging, we foresee that this RC will also be used for men with a lower a priori likelihood of PC. We investigated the effect of such a scenario on individual risk predictions. A small update of the intercept for the calculator can restore the accuracy to support decision-making with locally valid risk estimates. PATIENT SUMMARY: Decisions on who to refer for a prostate biopsy with its risk of sepsis and overdiagnosis require more than a prostate-specific antigen test. A prediction tool may take other relevant prebiopsy information into account, but may need to be updated to contemporary center-specific settings to provide accurate estimates of the risk of having prostate cancer.