Lessons learnt from a discontinued randomised controlled trial: adalimumab injection compared with placebo for patients receiving physiotherapy treatment for sciatica (Subcutaneous Injection of Adalimumab Trial compared with Control: SCIATiC).

BACKGROUND: Adalimumab, a biological treatment targeting tumour necrosis factor α, might be useful in sciatica. This paper describes the challenges faced when developing a new treatment pathway for a randomised controlled trial of adalimumab for people with sciatica, as well as the reasons why the trial discussed was stopped early. METHODS: A pragmatic, parallel group, randomised controlled trial with blinded (masked) participants, clinicians, outcome assessment and statistical analysis was conducted in six UK sites. Participants were identified and recruited from general practices, musculoskeletal services and outpatient physiotherapy clinics. They were adults with persistent symptoms of sciatica of 1 to 6 months' duration with moderate to high level of disability. Eligibility was assessed by research physiotherapists according to clinical criteria, and participants were randomised to receive two doses of adalimumab (80 mg then 40 mg 2 weeks later) or saline placebo subcutaneous injections in the posterior lateral thigh. Both groups were referred for a course of physiotherapy. Outcomes were measured at baseline, 6-week, 6-month and 12-month follow-up. The main outcome measure was disability measured using the Oswestry Disability Index. The planned sample size was 332, with the first 50 in an internal pilot phase. RESULTS: The internal pilot phase was discontinued after 10 months from opening owing to low recruitment (two of the six sites active, eight participants recruited). There were several challenges: contractual delays; one site did not complete contract negotiations, and two sites signed contracts shortly before trial closure; site withdrawal owing to patient safety concerns; difficulties obtaining excess treatment costs; and in the two sites that did recruit, recruitment was slower than planned because of operational issues and low uptake by potential participants. CONCLUSIONS: Improved patient care requires robust clinical research within contexts in which treatments can realistically be provided. Step changes in treatment, such as the introduction of biologic treatments for severe sciatica, raise complex issues that can delay trial initiation and retard recruitment. Additional preparatory work might be required before testing novel treatments. A randomised controlled trial of tumour necrosis factor-α blockade is still needed to determine its cost-effectiveness in severe sciatica. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN14569274 . Registered on 15 December 2014.

Discontinuation of surgical versus nonsurgical clinical trials: an analysis of 88,498 trials.

BACKGROUND: It has been previously reported that over 20% of surgical trials will be discontinued prematurely raising ethical and financial concerns. Previous studies have been limited in scope owing to the need for manual review of selected trials. To date, there has been no broad analysis comparing surgical and nonsurgical registered clinical trials. MATERIALS AND METHODS: ClinicalTrials.gov was queried October 7, 2017 for all US trials from 2005 to 2017. Trials were assigned to surgical or nonsurgical groups by automated sorting. The sorting algorithm was validated by comparison with manual assignments made by blinded investigators. Comparisons were made between trial status, funding sources, and trial design. The reasons for discontinuation were examined and tabulated. RESULTS: The database search yielded 82,719 nonsurgical and 5779 surgical trials after automatic assignment. The algorithm for assignments had an overall accuracy of 87.99% and a positive likelihood ratio of 6.09 and negative likelihood ratio of 0.093. Significant differences existed in trial status (nonsurgical versus surgical: completed: 55.51% versus 39.49%, P < 0.001 and discontinued: 11.07% versus 15.97%, P < 0.001). Discontinuation due to poor recruitment was more commonly cited by surgical trials (44.65% versus 34.74% P < 0.001). Industry funding predicted discontinuation for all trials (odds ratio 1.63 P < 0.001) and surgical trials independently (OR 1.25 P = 0.041). Patient enrollment, reporting results, and NIH funding were all protective against discontinuation. CONCLUSIONS: Surgical trials are more likely to prematurely discontinue than nonsurgical trials. Industry funding independently predicts trial discontinuation. Poor recruitment is a major cause of early trial discontinuation for all trials and is more pronounced in surgical trials.

Randomized controlled trials in pediatric patients had higher completion rates than adult trials: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: Conduct of clinical trials is perceived to be more challenging in children than in adults. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of the age of participants on completion rates of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: A cross-sectional study on RCTs registered in the ClinicalTrials.gov database. All RCTs registered up to December 31, 2016, were extracted and were classified according to their recruitment status: active, completed, or discontinued and according to the age of participants: children (<17 years), adults (≥18 years), and mixed-age population. A logistic regression model was applied to assess the impact of participant's age category on trial completion while controlling for other relevant trial features. RESULTS: A total of 65,095 registered RCTs were identified. Among pediatric trials, 49.9% were completed and 8.5% were discontinued. Among adult and mixed age RCTs, respectively, 49.7% and 47.9% were completed whereas, 10.2% and 9.4% were discontinued. Overall, pediatric and mixed age RCTs were more likely to be registered as completed than adult RCTs (odds ratio: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.02-1.30; odds ratio: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.04-1.27, respectively). Also, funding source, type of intervention under evaluation, primary trial purpose, use of a blinding procedure, use of a placebo, and participants' assignment model were identified as independent predictors of RCT completion. CONCLUSION: Contrary to current perceptions and despite several specific challenges, recruitment of children and adolescents is not a limiting factor to completing a RCT. Other study features such as funding source, impact completeness and should be carefully considered before initiating research.

Discontinuation and non-publication of clinical trials in cardiovascular medicine.

BACKGROUND: Appropriate dissemination of clinical data is crucial for minimising bias. Despite this, high rates of study discontinuation and non-publication have been reported among clinical trials. Cardiovascular medicine receives a substantial proportion of academic funding; however, predictors of non-publication among cardiovascular trials are not well-established. METHODS: The National Clinical Trials database was searched for cardiovascular trials completed between January 2010 and January 2014. Associated publications were identified in Medline or Embase. Relevant variables were extracted and subject to chi-squared and logistic regression to identify predictors of discontinuation and non-publication. RESULTS: After reviewing 2035 trials, 431 trials were included, of which 82.1% (n=354; 119,233 participants) were completed. Among completed trials, 70.3% (n=249; 99,095 participants) were published. Industry funding was associated with increased likelihood of non-publication (odds ratio [OR] 2.84; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.47-5.51; P=0.002), while non-randomised studies were more likely to remain unpublished than randomised counterparts. Industry-funded studies were over three times more likely to be discontinued than those sponsored by academic institutions (OR 3.89; CI 1.54-9.83; P=0.004). Trials studying heart failure and atrial fibrillation were more likely to be discontinued compared to trials studying coronary artery disease (OR 2.83; CI 1.23-6.51; and OR 3.10; CI 1.21-7.96, respectively). Of the total 135,714 participants, 25,565 were recruited into unpublished studies. CONCLUSIONS: Discontinuation and non-publication of cardiovascular trials are common, resulting in data from thousands of participants remaining unpublished. Funding source and randomisation are strong predictors of non-publication, while sponsor type, phase and blinding status are key predictors of discontinuation.

Discontinuation and Nonpublication of Randomized Clinical Trials Conducted in Children.

BACKGROUND: Trial discontinuation and nonpublication represent potential waste in research resources and lead to compromises in medical evidence. Pediatric trials may be particularly vulnerable to these outcomes given the challenges encountered in conducting trials in children. We aimed to determine the prevalence of discontinuation and nonpublication of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) conducted in pediatric populations. METHODS: Retrospective, cross-sectional study of pediatric RCTs registered in ClinicalTrials.gov from 2008 to 2010. Data were collected from the registry and associated publications identified (final search on September 1, 2015). RESULTS: Of 559 trials, 104 (19%) were discontinued early, accounting for an estimated 8369 pediatric participants. Difficulty with patient accrual (37%) was the most commonly cited reason for discontinuation. Trials were less likely to be discontinued if they were funded by industry compared with academic institutions (odds ratio [OR] 0.46, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.27-0.77). Of the 455 completed trials, 136 (30%) were not published, representing 69 165 pediatric participants. Forty-two unpublished trials posted results on ClinicalTrials.gov. Trials funded by industry were more than twice as likely to result in nonpublication at 24 and 36 months (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.35-3.64; OR 3.12, 95% CI 1.6-6.08, respectively) and had a longer mean time to publication compared with trials sponsored by academia (33 vs 24 months, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: In this sample of pediatric RCTs, discontinuation and nonpublication were common, with thousands of children exposed to interventions that did not lead to informative or published findings. Trial funding source was an important determinant of these outcomes, with both academic and industry sponsors contributing to inefficiencies.

An investigation of the impact of futility analysis in publicly funded trials.

BACKGROUND: Publicly funded trials regularly fail to recruit their target sample size or find a significant positive result. Adaptive clinical trials which may partly mediate against the problems are not often applied. In this paper we investigate the potential of a form of adaption in a clinical trial - a futility analysis - to see if it has potential to improve publicly funded trials. METHODS: Outcome data from trials funded by two UK bodies, the Health Technology Assessment (HTA) programme and the UK Medical Research Council (MRC), were collected. These data were then used to simulate each trial with a single futility analysis using conditional power, undertaken after 50% to 90% of the patients had been recruited. Thirty-three trials recruiting between 2002 and 2008 met the inclusion criteria. Stopping boundaries of conditional powers of 20%, 30% and 40% were considered and outcomes included the number of trials successfully stopped and number of patients saved. RESULTS: Inclusion of a futility analysis after 75% of the patients had been recruited would have potentially resulted in 10 trials, which went on to have negative results, correctly stopping for futility using a stopping boundary of 30%. A total of 807 patients across all the trials would potentially have been saved using these futility parameters. The proportion of studies successfully recruiting would also have increased from 45% to 64%. CONCLUSIONS: A futility assessment has the potential to increase efficiency, save patients and decrease costs in publicly funded trials. While there are logistical issues in undertaking futility assessments we recommend that investigators should aim to include a futility analysis in their trial design wherever possible.

Preoperative radiation therapy with concurrent capecitabine, bevacizumab, and erlotinib for rectal cancer: a phase 1 trial.

PURPOSE: The goal of this phase 1 trial was to determine the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of concurrent capecitabine, bevacizumab, and erlotinib with preoperative radiation therapy for rectal cancer. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Patients with clinical stage II to III rectal adenocarcinoma, within 12 cm from the anal verge, were treated in 4 escalating dose levels, using the continual reassessment method. Patients received preoperative radiation therapy with concurrent bevacizumab (5 mg/kg intravenously every 2 weeks), erlotinib, and capecitabine. Capecitabine dose was increased from 650 mg/m(2) to 825 mg/m(2) orally twice daily on the days of radiation therapy; erlotinib dose was increased from 50 mg orally daily in weeks 1 to 3, to 50 mg daily in weeks 1 to 6, to 100 mg daily in weeks 1 to 6. Patients underwent surgery at least 9 weeks after the last dose of bevacizumab. RESULTS: A total of 19 patients were enrolled, and 18 patients were considered evaluable. No patient had grade 4 acute toxicity, and 1 patient had grade 3 acute toxicity (hypertension). The MTD was not reached. All 18 evaluable patients underwent surgery, with low anterior resection in 7 (39%), proctectomy with coloanal anastomosis in 4 patients (22%), posterior pelvic exenteration in 1 (6%), and abdominoperineal resection in 6 (33%). Of the 18 patients, 8 (44%) had pathologic complete response, and 1 had complete response of the primary tumor with positive nodes. Three patients (17%) had grade 3 postoperative complications (ileus, small bowel obstruction, and infection). With a median follow-up of 34 months, 1 patient developed distant metastasis, and no patient had local recurrence or died. The 3-year disease-free survival was 94%. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of preoperative radiation therapy with concurrent capecitabine, bevacizumab, and erlotinib was well tolerated. The pathologic complete response rate appears promising and may warrant further investigation.

Monitoring in clinical trials: benefit or bias?

Monitoring ongoing clinical trials for early signs of effectiveness is an option for improving cost-effectiveness of trials that is becoming increasingly common. Alongside the obvious advantages made possible by monitoring, however, there are some downsides. In particular, there is growing concern in the medical community that trials stopped early for benefit tend to overestimate treatment effect. In this paper, I examine this problem from the point of view of statistical methodology, starting from the observation that the overestimation is caused by the statistical method adopted. Consequently, I argue that some modifications can and should be made to the present statistical framework in order not to miss the advantages the possibility of monitoring can grant.

Would tirofiban have been shown non-inferior to abciximab had the TENACITY trial not been terminated for financial reasons?

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether tirofiban would have been non-inferior to abciximab had the trial completed enrollment and place the termination of this trial in a broader research ethics context. BACKGROUND: TENACITY was terminated by the sponsor for financial reasons. At the time, event rates for the 2 treatment arms were unknown. METHODS: TENACITY was designed to compare tirofiban with abciximab in approximately 8,000 patients; however, enrollment was terminated after 383 (4.8%) patients. The primary end-point was a composite of 30-day death, myocardial infarction, and urgent target vessel revascularization. Non-inferiority was defined as the likelihood that tirofiban would preserve at least 50% of the ability of abciximab to reduce the primary end-point at 30 days, based on abciximab's demonstrated ability to reduce such events by 43% (relative risk, 0.573; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.507-0.648; P < 0.001). To determine the probability of non-inferiority given the patients already enrolled, a Bayesian approach was used. RESULTS: The primary composite end-point occurred in 8.8% of patients randomized to abciximab versus 6.9% receiving high-bolus-dose tirofiban (odds ratio, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.37-1.64). The estimated conditional power for the test that tirofiban would be non-inferior to abciximab if all patients been enrolled is 93.7%. Using the estimated predictive power method, the likelihood was 84.8%. CONCLUSIONS: TENACITY was well powered to identify non-inferiority with tirofiban versus abciximab, and the patients enrolled strengthened the probability that this would have been the outcome had the trial been completed. When a clinical trial is terminated solely for financial reasons, it is incumbent upon the sponsor to provide proper patient follow-up and publication of the findings.

A potent oral P-selectin blocking agent improves microcirculatory blood flow and a marker of endothelial cell injury in patients with sickle cell disease.

Abnormal blood flow accounts for most of the clinical morbidity of sickle cell disease (SCD) [1,2]. Most notably, occlusion of flow in the microvasculature causes the acute pain crises [3] that are the commonest cause for patients with SCD to seek medical attention [4] and major determinants of their quality of life [5]. Based on evidence that endothelial P-selectin is central to the abnormal blood flow in SCD we provide results from four of our studies that are germane to microvascular blood flow in SCD. A proof-of-principle study established that doses of heparin lower than what are used for anticoagulation but sufficient to block P-selectin improved microvascular blood flow inpatients with SCD. An in vitro study showed that Pentosan Polysulfate Sodium (PPS) had greater P-selectin blocking activity than heparin. A Phase I clinical study demonstrated that a single oral dose of PPS increased microvascular blood flow in patients with SCD. A Phase II clinical study that was not completed documented that daily oral doses of PPS administered for 8 weeks lowered plasma levels of sVCAM-1 and tended to improve microvascular blood flow in patients with SCD. These data support the concept that P-selectin on the microvascular endothelium is critical to both acute vascular occlusion and chronically impaired microvascular blood flow in SCD. They also demonstrate that oral PPS is beneficial to microvascular sickle cell blood flow and has potential as an efficacious agent for long-term prophylactic therapy of SCD.

Continuous safety monitoring for randomized controlled clinical trials with blinded treatment information. Part 3: Design considerations.

Ongoing safety monitoring of clinical trials of investigational treatments must operate at levels that range from the minute and detailed - namely, mathematical treatment of trial data - to the philosophical and societal - namely, ethical concerns for individuals and populations. Between those two poles lies a realm of environmental and pragmatic considerations that reflect the goals, biases, risk-tolerance, and constraints of study sponsors and organizers. These factors, while more difficult to quantify or, at times, to justify, also have a meaningful impact on the approach to safety monitoring and the resulting actions and outcomes. This paper considers the influence and interaction of two such factors, study design and statistical framework, on continuous safety monitoring procedures. Group sequential designs have been generally preferred for clinical trials over continuous sequential designs because of practical considerations. The group means and greater time for deliberation when using a group sequential procedure, as opposed to a continuous sequential procedure, can improve the quality of the analyses with minimal loss in sensitivity. However, undertaking any sequential analysis within a frequentist framework provokes considerable theoretical and practical difficulties. Continuous monitoring with a likelihood based method, on the other hand, has the advantages that all available information, including new data, can be used; sample sizes need not be fixed; and decisions can be made at any time without statistical penalty, irrespective of trial design. Such responsive statistical rules are needed to provide guidance to the human beings charged with trial monitoring.