Explaining age disparities in tuberculosis burden in Taiwan: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) burden shows wide disparities across ages in Taiwan. In 2016, the age-specific notification rate in those older than 65 years old was about 100 times as much as in those younger than 15 years old (185.0 vs 1.6 per 100,000 population). Similar patterns are observed in other intermediate TB burden settings. However, driving mechanisms for such age disparities are not clear and may have importance for TB control efforts. METHODS: We hypothesised three mechanisms for the age disparity in TB burden: (i) older age groups bear a higher risk of TB progression due to immune senescence, (ii) elderly cases acquired TB infection during a past period of high transmission, which has since rapidly declined and thus contributes to little recent infections, and (iii) assortative mixing by age allows elders to maintain a higher risk of TB infection, while limiting spillover transmission to younger age groups. We developed a series of dynamic compartmental models to incorporate these mechanisms, individually and in combination. The models were calibrated to the TB notification rates in Taiwan over 1997-2016 and evaluated by goodness-of-fit to the age disparities and the temporal trend in the TB burden, as well as the deviance information criterion (DIC). According to the model performance, we compared contributions of the hypothesised mechanisms. RESULTS: The 'full' model including all the three hypothesised mechanisms best captured the age disparities and temporal trend of the TB notification rates. However, dropping individual mechanisms from the full model in turn, we found that excluding the mechanism of assortative mixing yielded the least change in goodness-of-fit. In terms of their influence on the TB dynamics, the major contribution of the 'immune senescence' and 'assortative mixing' mechanisms was to create disparate burden among age groups, while the 'declining transmission' mechanism served to capture the temporal trend of notification rates. CONCLUSIONS: In settings such as Taiwan, the current TB burden in the elderly may be impacted more by prevention of active disease following latent infection, than by case-finding for blocking transmission. Further studies on these mechanisms are needed to disentangle their impacts on the TB epidemic and develop corresponding control strategies.

Modelling the effect of discontinuing universal Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination in an intermediate tuberculosis burden setting.

BACKGROUND: Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination is a widely-used public health intervention for tuberculosis (TB) control. In Taiwan, like other intermediate TB burden settings, steadily declining TB incidence raises important questions on whether universal BCG vaccination should be discontinued. Recent surveys on adverse events following immunisation, such as BCG-induced osteomyelitis/osteitis, also suggest a need to re-evaluate the vaccination programme. METHODS: We developed an age-structured transmission dynamic model, calibrated to population demography and age-specific TB notification rates in Taiwan. We adopted 'weak-protection' and 'strong-protection' scenarios, representing a range of characteristics including the duration of BCG protection and vaccine efficacies against TB infection and progression. We estimated averted disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and incremental costs over 10 years after discontinuing universal BCG vaccination in 2018, 2035, and 2050. We also examined the potential impact of 'surveillance-guided' discontinuation, triggered once notification rates fall to a given threshold. RESULTS: In the weak-protection scenario, discontinuing BCG would result in 2.8 (95% uncertainty range: 2.3, 3.1) additional notified TB cases and -4.1 (-7.7, 0.8) net averted DALYs over 2018-2027. In the strong-protection scenario, 82.9 (72.6, 91.6) additional cases and -402.7 (-506.6, -301.2) averted DALYs would be reported, suggesting a robustly negative health impact. However, in this vaccine scenario, there could be an overall health benefit if BCG is discontinued once TB notification falls below 5 per 100,000 population. The most influential vaccine characteristic for the net health impact is the vaccine efficacy against progression to pulmonary TB. In financial terms, the eliminated cost of the vaccination programme substantially outweighed the incremental cost for TB treatment regardless of BCG protection. CONCLUSIONS: BCG discontinuation may be warranted in intermediate burden settings, depending on the quality of vaccine protection, and the potential for refocusing on other TB control activities for earlier detection and treatment.

Knowledge about tuberculosis transmission and prevention and perceptions of health service utilization among index cases and contacts in Brazil: Understanding losses in the latent tuberculosis cascade of care.

INTRODUCTION: Tuberculosis contacts are candidates for active and latent tuberculosis infection screening and eventual treatment. However, many losses occur in the different steps of the contacts' cascade of care. Reasons for this are poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: To describe the different steps where losses in the contact cascade occur and to explore knowledge and attitudes regarding tuberculosis transmission/prevention and perceptions about tuberculosis services in order to understand the reasons for losses from the tuberculosis service users' perspective. DESIGN: We collected routine data from the index case and contact registry books and from patients' records to build the cascade of care of contacts in 12 health facilities in three Brazilian cities with high tuberculosis incidence rates. During a knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) survey, trained interviewers administered a semi-structured questionnaire to 138 index cases and 98 contacts. RESULTS: Most of the losses in the cascade occurred in the first two steps (contact identification, 43% and tuberculin skin testing placement, 91% of the identified contacts). Among KAP-interviewed contacts, 67% knew how tuberculosis is transmitted, 87% knew its key symptoms and 81% declared they would take preventive therapy if prescribed. Among KAP-interviewed index cases, 67% knew they could spread tuberculosis, 70% feared for the health of their families and 88% would like their family to be evaluated in the same services. CONCLUSION: Only a small proportion of contacts are evaluated for active and latent tuberculosis, despite their-and their index cases'-reasonable knowledge, positive attitudes towards prevention and satisfaction with tuberculosis services. In these services, education of service users would not be a sufficient solution. Healthcare workers' and managers' perspective, not explored in this study, may bring more light to this subject.

Position statement on interferon-γ release assays for the detection of latent tuberculosis infection.

Interferon-y release assays (IGRAs), such as the Quantiferon (QIFN) TB-Gold Plus assay (Qiagen, Hilden, Germany) and the T-SPOT.TB test (Oxford Immunotec Limited, Abingdon, United Kingdom), are marketed as a substitute for the tuberculin skin test (TST) for the detection of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI). The relative merits of IGRAs and TST have been hotly debated over the last decade. The specificity of IGRAs has been optimised by using Mycobacterium tuberculosis-specific antigens. However, IGRAs are functional in vitro T-cell-based assays that may lack reproducibility due to specimen collection, transport, processing and kit manufacturing issues. Longitudinal studies comparing the ability of IGRAs and TST to predict the future development of active tuberculosis disease (TB) are the ultimate arbiters on the respective utility of these assays. Three meta-analyses addressing this comparison have now been published and clinical experience with IGRAs is accumulating. The systematic reviews show that IGRAs and TST have similar (but poor) ability to identify patients with LTBI at risk of developing active TB disease. The improved specificity of IGRAs however may reduce the number of patients requiring preventative therapy. Based on these meta-analyses, The National Tuberculosis Advisory Committee (NTAC) now recommends either TST or an IGRA for the investigation of LTBI in most circumstances. Both tests may be used in patients where the risk of progression to active TB disease is high and the disease sequelae potentially severe (eg. LTBI testing in immunocompromised patients or those commencing anti-tumour necrosis factor-a (TNF) therapy). Neither test should be used in the investigation of active TB disease (though TST and/or IGRA may be used as supplementary tests in paediatric cases). The choice of test for serial testing in healthcare workers (HCWs) remains controversial. A preference remains for TST in this circumstance because IGRAs have been bedevilled by higher rates of reversions and conversions when used for serial testing. These recommendations supersede all previous NTAC IGRA statements.

Cost effectiveness of interferon-gamma release assay for tuberculosis screening using three months of rifapentine and isoniazid among long-term expatriates from low to high incidence countries.

BACKGROUND: Long-term expatriates from low to high tuberculosis (TB) incidence countries get high rates of active TB and latent TB infection (LTBI). TB screening for expatriates is important for occupational health. Interferon-gamma release assays are more accurate than tuberculin skin test (TST). Rifapentine plus isoniazid for 3 months (3HP) is as effective as 9 months of isoniazid (9H) with a higher treatment-completion rate. METHODS: Decision trees and Markov models were constructed using a societal perspective on a lifetime horizon. The target population was a hypothetical cohort of 30 year-old expatriates. Seven strategies; TST with 3HP or 9H, QuantiFERON®-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT) with 3HP or 9H, T-SPOT®.TB (TSPOT) with 3HP or 9H and chest X-ray examination (CXR) were modeled. The main outcome measure of effectiveness was quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. RESULTS: QFT with 3HP yielded the greatest benefits with the lowest cost ($US 674.8; 25.95660 QALYs [year 2012 values]). CXR was the least cost-effective ($US 13,666.8; 24.62917 QALYs). Cost-effectiveness was sensitive to adherence rate of 3HP and QFT specificity, but not to BCG vaccination rate. CONCLUSIONS: Entry LTBI screening using QFT treated with 3HP is recommended on the basis of cost effectiveness among long-term expatriates from low to high incidence countries.

[Comparative study of concordance and costs between tuberculin skin test and QuantiFERON(®)-TB Gold In-Tube in the diagnosis of latent tuberculosis infection among contacts of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis]. / Estudio comparativo de concordancia y costes entre la prueba de la tuberculina y QuantiFERON(®)-TB Gold In-Tube en el diagnóstico de la infección latente tuberculosa en contactos de pacientes con tuberculosis pulmonar.

INTRODUCTION: Recently diagnosis of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) can be made using the tuberculin skin test (TST) or by techniques known as interferon-γ release assays (IGRAS), being QuantiFERON(®)-TB Gold In-Tube (QF-G-IT) the most used. The IGRAS avoid some drawbacks of the TST, especially cross-reaction with bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine, but also present some problems such as those arising from cost and the need of having an adequate infrastructure and experience. There is no clear consensus on which technique should be preferentially used for the diagnosis of LTBI. METHODS: This is a comparative study between the TST and QT-G-IT in a cohort of contacts of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis during the study period. An analysis of global agreement and groups was performed according to whether the contacts were vaccinated with BCG or not. A study of costs of both techniques and diagnostic strategies based on these techniques was performed. RESULTS: The agreement between TST and QF-G-IT was acceptable in the whole sample yet it was very good in the unvaccinated group. Few cases of indeterminate values were recorded. The cost study showed that TST was cheaper than QF-G-IT; however when we analyzed the cost of the strategies according to each technique, the QF-G-IT showed a better cost-benefit. CONCLUSION: We suggest considering QF-G-IT as the only preferred technique for the diagnosis of LTBI in household contacts, based on good overall agreement between the 2 techniques (even if we eliminate the effect of the vaccine) and a cost analysis favorable to QF-G-IT.

Risk Assessment of Tuberculosis in Contacts by IFN-γ Release Assays. A Tuberculosis Network European Trials Group Study.

RATIONALE: Latent infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis is defined by a positive IFN-γ release assay (IGRA) result in the absence of active tuberculosis. Only few, mostly monocentric studies have evaluated the role of IGRAs to predict the development of tuberculosis in recent contacts in low-incidence countries of tuberculosis. OBJECTIVES: To analyze IGRA results and the effect of preventive chemotherapy on tuberculosis progression rates among recent contacts. METHODS: Results from contact investigations at 26 centers in 10 European countries including testing for latent infection with M. tuberculosis by the QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFT) test or the T-SPOT.TB (TSPOT) were prospectively collected and analyzed. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Among 5,020 contacts of 1,023 index cases, 25 prevalent secondary cases were identified at screening. Twenty-four incident cases occurred among 4,513 contacts during 12,326 years of cumulative follow-up. In those with a positive IGRA result, tuberculosis incidence was 0.2 (QFT) and 0 (TSPOT) per 100 patient-years when contacts received preventive chemotherapy versus 1.2 (QFT) and 0.8 (TSPOT) per 100 patient-years in those not treated (38 and 37 patients needed to be treated to prevent one case, respectively). Positive and negative predictive values were 1.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-3.0) and 99.9% (95% CI, 99.7-100) for the QFT and 0.7% (95% CI, 0.1-2.6) and 99.7% (95% CI, 99.1-99.9) for the TSPOT. CONCLUSIONS: Tuberculosis rarely developed among contacts, and preventive chemotherapy effectively reduced the tuberculosis risk among IGRA-positive contacts. Although the negative predictive value of IGRAs is high, the risk for the development of tuberculosis is poorly predicted by these assays.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of optimal control measures for tuberculosis.

We propose and analyze an optimal control problem where the control system is a mathematical model for tuberculosis that considers reinfection. The control functions represent the fraction of early latent and persistent latent individuals that are treated. Our aim was to study how these control measures should be implemented, for a certain time period, in order to reduce the number of active infected individuals, while minimizing the interventions implementation costs. The optimal intervention is compared along different epidemiological scenarios, by varying the transmission coefficient. The impact of variation of the risk of reinfection, as a result of acquired immunity to a previous infection for treated individuals on the optimal controls and associated solutions, is analyzed. A cost-effectiveness analysis is done, to compare the application of each one of the control measures, separately or in combination.

[Treatment of latent tuberculosis infection]. / Traitement des infections tuberculeuses latentes.

Latent tuberculosis infection is a key stage in the natural history of tuberculosis, and provides an important period where strategies to prevent the development of disease may be implemented. The treatment of latent tuberculosis infection is well described in many national guidelines. In this review, we attempt to help pneumonologists to implement these guidelines accurately and appropriately, prescribing preventive treatment when the benefit-risk ratio is optimal, providing treatment most safely, performing therapeutic education and incorporating preventive treatment into the full array of measures against tuberculosis.

Is isoniazid for 6 months more cost-effective than isoniazid for 9 months?

SETTING: The optimal treatment for latent tuberculosis infection consists of isoniazid (H, INH) for 9-12 months. Although INH for 6 months (6H) is more cost-effective than the 12-month regimen, the cost-effectiveness of the 6H regimen and that of INH for 9 months (9H) have not been compared. OBJECTIVE: To compare the cost-effectiveness of treatment with 6H and 9H. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness was evaluated using the ratio of the cost of preventing one tuberculosis case using 6H vs. 9H. The cost was estimated as the product of the number of patients to be treated to prevent one case using 6H or 9H × the cost of 6H or 9H. RESULTS: A total of 1039 patients were studied. The number of patients that needed to be treated to prevent one case was 33 (95%CI 21-83) using 6H and 26 (95%CI 18-50) using 9H. The cost of 6H and 9H was respectively €444.34 and €578.26, and the cost ratio of preventing one case with 6H/9H was 0.98 (95%CI 0.6-1.5). CONCLUSIONS: The cost-effectiveness of treatment with 6H and 9H is similar.