We predict a riot: inequity, relative deprivation and collective destruction in the laboratory.

Riots are unpredictable and dangerous. Our understanding of the factors that cause riots is based on correlational observations of population data, or post hoc introspection of individuals. To complement these accounts, we developed innovative experimental techniques, investigated the psychological factors of rioting and explored their consequences with agent-based simulations. We created a game, 'Parklife', that physically co-present participants played using smartphones. In two teams, participants tapped on their screen to grow trees and flowerbeds on separate but adjacent virtual parks. Participants could also tap to vandalize the other team's park. In some conditions, we surreptitiously introduced inequity between the teams so that one (the disadvantaged team) had to tap more for each reward. The experience of inequity caused the disadvantaged team to engage in more destruction, and to report higher relative deprivation and frustration. Agent-based models suggested that acts of destruction were driven by the interaction between individual level of frustration and the team's behaviour. Our results provide insights into the psychological mechanisms underlying collective action.

Riot-related injuries managed at a hospital in Beirut, Lebanon.

BACKGROUND: Between October 2019 and February 2020, massive crowds protested in Lebanon against economic collapse. Various less than lethal weapons including riot control agents and rubber bullets were used by law enforcement, which led to several traumatic and chemical injuries among victims. This study describes the clinical presentation, management, outcome, and healthcare costs of injuries. METHODS: A retrospective review of the hospital records of all the casualties presenting to the Emergency Department of the American University of Beirut Medical Center between October 17th, 2019, and February 29th, 2020, was conducted. RESULTS: A total of 313 casualties were evaluated in the ED, with a mean age of 30.2 +/- 9.6 years and a predominance of males (91.1%). Most were protestors (71.9%) and arrived through EMS (43.5%) at an influx rate of one patient presenting every 2.7-8 min. Most patients (91.1%) presented with an Emergency Severity Index of 3. Most patients (77.6%) required imaging with 10% having major findings including fractures and hemorrhages. Stones, rocks, and tear gas canisters (30.7%) were the most common mechanism of injury. Musculoskeletal injuries were most common (62.6%), followed by lacerations (44.7%). The majority (93.3%) were treated and discharged home and 3.2% required hospital admission, with 2.6% requiring surgery. CONCLUSION: Less-than-lethal weapons can cause severe injuries and permanent morbidity. The use of riot control agents needs to be better controlled, and users need to be well trained in order to avoid misuse and to lessen the morbidity, mortality, and financial burden.

The 2010 structural-demographic forecast for the 2010-2020 decade: A retrospective assessment.

This article revisits the prediction, made in 2010, that the 2010-2020 decade would likely be a period of growing instability in the United States and Western Europe Turchin P. 2018. This prediction was based on a computational model that quantified in the USA such structural-demographic forces for instability as popular immiseration, intraelite competition, and state weakness prior to 2010. Using these trends as inputs, the model calculated and projected forward in time the Political Stress Indicator, which in the past was strongly correlated with socio-political instability. Ortmans et al. Turchin P. 2010 conducted a similar structural-demographic study for the United Kingdom. Here we use the Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive for the US, UK, and several major Western European countries to assess these structural-demographic predictions. We find that such measures of socio-political instability as anti-government demonstrations and riots increased dramatically during the 2010-2020 decade in all of these countries.

RUMOURS, RIOTS AND THE REJECTION OF MASS DRUG ADMINISTRATION FOR THE TREATMENT OF SCHISTOSOMIASIS IN MOROGORO, TANZANIA.

In 2008 in Morogoro region, Tanzania, mass drug administration (MDA) to school-aged children to treat two neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) - urinary schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminths - was suspended by the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare after riots broke out in schools where drugs were being administered. This article discusses why this biomedical intervention was so vehemently rejected, including an eyewitness account. As the protest spread to the village where I was conducting fieldwork, villagers accused me of bringing medicine into the village with which to 'poison' the children and it was necessary for me to leave immediately under the protection of the Tanzanian police. The article examines the considerable differences between biomedical and local understandings of one of these diseases, urinary schistosomiasis. Such a disjuncture was fuelled further by the apparent rapidity of rolling out MDA and subsequent failures in communication between programme staff and local people. Rumours of child fatalities as well as children's fainting episodes and illnesses following treatment brought about considerable conjecture both locally and nationally that the drugs had been either faulty, counterfeit, hitherto untested on humans or part of a covert sterilization campaign. The compelling arguments by advocates of MDA for the treatment of NTDs rest on the assumption that people suffering from these diseases will be willing to swallow the medicine. However, as this article documents, this is not always the case. For treatment of NTDs to be successful it is not enough for programmes to focus on economic and biomedical aspects of treatment, rolling out 'one size fits all' programmes in resource-poor settings. It is imperative to develop a biosocial approach: to consider the local social, biological, historical, economic and political contexts in which these programmes are taking place and in which the intended recipients of treatment live their lives. If this is not done, the world's poor will continue to be neglected.

Does media coverage influence public attitudes towards welfare recipients? The impact of the 2011 English riots.

Following the shooting of Mark Duggan by police on 4 August 2011, there were riots in many large cities in the UK. As the rioting was widely perceived to be perpetrated by the urban poor, links were quickly made with Britain's welfare policies. In this paper, we examine whether the riots, and the subsequent media coverage, influenced attitudes toward welfare recipients. Using the British Social Attitudes survey, we use multivariate difference-in-differences regression models to compare attitudes toward welfare recipients among those interviewed before (pre-intervention: i.e. prior to 6 August) and after (post-intervention: 10 August-10 September) the riots occurred (N = 3,311). We use variation in exposure to the media coverage to test theories of media persuasion in the context of attitudes toward welfare recipients. Before the riots, there were no significant differences between newspaper readers and non-readers in their attitudes towards welfare recipients. However, after the riots, attitudes diverged. Newspaper readers became more likely than non-readers to believe that those on welfare did not really deserve help, that the unemployed could find a job if they wanted to and that those on the dole were being dishonest in claiming benefits. Although the divergence was clearest between right-leaning newspaper and non-newspaper readers, we do not a find statistically significant difference between right- and left-leaning newspapers. These results suggest that media coverage of the riots influenced attitudes towards welfare recipients; specifically, newspaper coverage of the riots increased the likelihood that readers of the print media expressed negative attitudes towards welfare recipients when compared with the rest of the population.

Large-Scale Urban Riots and Residential Segregation: A Case Study of the 1960s U.S. Riots.

Despite a well-established literature investigating race-related predictors of riot incidence, the racial aftermath of riots remains unexamined. In this study, I use the 1960s U.S. race riots to investigate trends in black residential segregation levels following large-scale riot activity in seven major U.S. cities. I use a novel approach--namely, synthetic control matching--to select a group of cities against which segregation trends can be compared. I find that levels of black segregation rose in 1970 for four of the seven cities, but these increases disappeared in 1980 and 1990 except in Detroit. These results mask differential trends at lower geographic levels: suburban neighborhoods in affected areas experienced larger and longer-term increases in segregation, particularly in traditionally hypersegregated cities in the Midwest and Northeast.

Contextual Predictors of Injection Drug Use Among Black Adolescents and Adults in US Metropolitan Areas, 1993-2007.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine whether contextual factors shape injection drug use among Black adolescents and adults. METHODS: For this longitudinal study of 95 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), we drew annual MSA-specific estimates of the prevalence of injection drug use (IDU) among Black adolescents and adults in 1993 through 2007 from 3 surveillance databases. We used existing administrative data to measure MSA-level socioeconomic status; criminal justice activities; expenditures on social welfare, health, and policing; and histories of Black uprisings (1960-1969) and urban renewal funding (1949-1974). We regressed Black IDU prevalence on these predictors by using hierarchical linear models. RESULTS: Black IDU prevalence was lower in MSAs with declining Black high-school dropout rates, a history of Black uprisings, higher percentages of Black residents, and, in MSAs where 1992 White income was high, higher 1992 Black income. Incarceration rates were unrelated. CONCLUSIONS: Contextual factors shape patterns of drug use among Black individuals. Structural interventions, especially those that improve Black socioeconomic security and political strength, may help reduce IDU among Black adolescents and adults.

The "swinish multitude": controversies over hogs in antebellum New York City.

In the first half of the nineteenth century, New Yorkers fought passionately over the presence of hogs on their streets and in their city. New York's filthy streets had cultivated an informal economy and a fertile environment for roaming creatures. The battles­both physical and legal­reveal a city rife with class tensions. After decades of arguments, riots, and petitions, cholera and the fear of other public health crises ultimately spelled the end for New York's hogs. New York struggled during this period to improve municipal services while adapting to a changing economy and rapid population growth. The fights between those for and against hogs shaped New York City's landscape and resulted in new rules for using public space a new place for nature in the city.

"Ready to shoot and do shoot": black working-class self-defense and community politics in Harlem, New York, during the 1920s.

Throughout the first three decades of the twentieth century, black people in New York City encountered white violence, especially police brutality in Manhattan. The black community used various strategies to curtail white mob violence and police brutality, one of which was self-defense. This article examines blacks' response to violence, specifically the debate concerning police brutality and self-defense in Harlem during the 1920s. While historians have examined race riots, blacks' everyday encounters with police violence in the North have received inadequate treatment. By approaching everyday violence and black responses­self-defense, legal redress, and journalists' remonstrations­as a process of political development, this article argues that the systematic violence perpetrated by the police both mobilized and politicized blacks individually and collectively to defend their community, but also contributed to a community consciousness that established police brutality as a legitimate issue for black protest.

Rights to food with a human face in the global south.

This article seeks to dispel the popular myth surrounding the food crises which precipitated food riots in the global South in 2008. Arguing from a structural and historical perspective, the article suggests that global hunger is a deep-rooted crisis that is embedded in the social and structural variables associated within the nation-state that places a restraint on the self-regulating capacity of nation-states in the South. Internationalizing the food crisis, however, will do more harm to the south's agricultural transformation and rural development. The article argues for integrated rural development that will increase output growth through an institutional, technological, and marketing strategy.

"But burn - no": the rest of the crowd in three civil disorders in 1960s Chicago.

Examining the internal dynamics of three civil disturbances on the West Side of Chicago during the late 1960s, this article describes the presence of numerous people who were not participating in the upheaval. It pays particular attention to "counterrioters," civilian residents of the neighborhoods and members of local organizations, who tried to persuade those engaging in violence to stop. Local dissent from the tactic of violence suggests that historians should describe these events using the neutral language of social science rather than the politically loaded labels of "riot" or "rebellion." The article argues that American historians of urban disorders should use the methods of European scholars of the crowd to study the actions of participants in order to ascertain their political content, rather than relying on an examination of their motives.