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1.
PLoS One ; 15(8): e0237458, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32804982

RESUMO

This article revisits the prediction, made in 2010, that the 2010-2020 decade would likely be a period of growing instability in the United States and Western Europe Turchin P. 2018. This prediction was based on a computational model that quantified in the USA such structural-demographic forces for instability as popular immiseration, intraelite competition, and state weakness prior to 2010. Using these trends as inputs, the model calculated and projected forward in time the Political Stress Indicator, which in the past was strongly correlated with socio-political instability. Ortmans et al. Turchin P. 2010 conducted a similar structural-demographic study for the United Kingdom. Here we use the Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive for the US, UK, and several major Western European countries to assess these structural-demographic predictions. We find that such measures of socio-political instability as anti-government demonstrations and riots increased dramatically during the 2010-2020 decade in all of these countries.


Assuntos
Demografia/tendências , Política , Europa (Continente) , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Tumultos/estatística & dados numéricos , Tumultos/tendências , Reino Unido , Estados Unidos
2.
Am J Public Health ; 106(3): 517-26, 2016 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26691126

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine whether contextual factors shape injection drug use among Black adolescents and adults. METHODS: For this longitudinal study of 95 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), we drew annual MSA-specific estimates of the prevalence of injection drug use (IDU) among Black adolescents and adults in 1993 through 2007 from 3 surveillance databases. We used existing administrative data to measure MSA-level socioeconomic status; criminal justice activities; expenditures on social welfare, health, and policing; and histories of Black uprisings (1960-1969) and urban renewal funding (1949-1974). We regressed Black IDU prevalence on these predictors by using hierarchical linear models. RESULTS: Black IDU prevalence was lower in MSAs with declining Black high-school dropout rates, a history of Black uprisings, higher percentages of Black residents, and, in MSAs where 1992 White income was high, higher 1992 Black income. Incarceration rates were unrelated. CONCLUSIONS: Contextual factors shape patterns of drug use among Black individuals. Structural interventions, especially those that improve Black socioeconomic security and political strength, may help reduce IDU among Black adolescents and adults.


Assuntos
Negro ou Afro-Americano/estatística & dados numéricos , Abuso de Substâncias por Via Intravenosa/etnologia , População Urbana/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Direito Penal/organização & administração , Direito Penal/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Gastos em Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Renda/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos Longitudinais , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Política , Prevalência , Prisões/estatística & dados numéricos , Tumultos/estatística & dados numéricos , Seguridade Social/economia , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
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