From global to national: The role of urban agglomerations in China's new development paradigm.

Urban agglomerations (UAs), which serve as pivotal hubs for economic and innovative convergence, play a crucial role in enhancing internal circulation and strengthening external linkages. This study utilizes the China city-level multi-regional input-output tables, incorporating the Dagum Gini coefficient and kernel density estimation methods, to perform a thorough quantitative analysis. Disparities within the national and global value chains ("dual value chains") of Chinese UAs from 2012 to 2017 were assessed. Additionally, the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method was applied to disaggregate the drivers of both national and global intermediate inputs (NII and GII). The study's key findings include the following: (1) The national value chain (NVC) within UAs exhibits robust growth, contrasting with the decline in the global value chain (GVC). (2) The inter-UA disparity contribution rate significantly surpasses the combined rates of intra-UA contribution and super-variation density. (3) Distinct evolutionary peak trends are discerned among various UAs within the "dual value chains", highlighting diverse spatial polarization characteristics and expansiveness. (4) The growth of the NVC has transitioned from a negative to a positive impact on NII, while the decline in GVC has substantially counteracted GII growth. Economic and demographic factors notably drive positive improvements in both NII and GII, whereas the efficiency of outflows presents a negative driving effect. Based on these findings, this study offers strategic recommendations to facilitate the effective integration of UAs into the new development paradigm, thereby providing a scientific basis for related decision-making processes.

Spatiotemporal differentiation and analysis of factors influencing high-quality development of resource-based cities: An empirical study based in China.

Resource-based cities often face problems such as resource scarcity and insufficient electricity to achieve complex high-quality growth. At present, there is relatively little research on the impact on the high-quality development of such cities. To study the key variables that affect the high-quality growth of resource-based cities, we adopt entropy weighted TOPSIS technology, spatial correlation analysis, and spatial econometric models. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The overall high-quality development of resource-based cities in China is on the rise year by year; The cities with the highest growth rates are those that are mature, rejuvenated, growing, and declining. (2) Resource-based cities have a positive geographical correlation in high-quality development, and different numbers of clusters are displayed by changing the Moran I index score. (3) High quality development is strongly influenced by human capital, urbanization, technological innovation, and global market openness. There are significant differences in the ways in which these variables affect various types of resource-based cities. Policy makers who strive to reduce regional inequality and encourage high-quality growth in resource-based communities may benefit greatly from the insights provided by this study.

The impact of housing prices and land financing on economic growth: Evidence from Chinese 277 cities at the prefecture level and above.

With the rapid progress of urbanization in China, the real estate industry, characterized by a long industrial chain, has become a pillar industry for economic development. Therefore, we inspect the nexus between land finance, housing prices, and economic growth. For this purpose, we use the panel data of 277 cities at the prefecture level or above in China from 2011 to 2019, and empirically examine it by using the Panel Vector Auto Regression (PVAR) model. The results show that there is a causal relationship between housing prices and economic growth. Housing prices promote economic growth in the short term and inhibit it in the long term. Both economic growth and housing prices have a significant impact on land finance. The economic growth show a significantly positive impact, while housing prices promote land finance in the short term with a long-term trend from positive to negative. This is the first study that tries to probe the relationship between urban housing prices, land finance, and economic growth by considering 277 prefecture-level and above cities in China. To promote the stable development of the regional economy, local governments need to overcome their dependence on the housing market and land finance and promote the healthy development of the housing market.

Selection and Optimization of Regional Economic Industrial Structure Based on Fuzzy k-Means Clustering Algorithm.

Learning about the regional business model is essential for the sustainable development of the regional economy. From the perspective of urban renewable energy, city A is the product of energy development. This paper analyzes the current situation and existing problems of the industrial model of city A through fuzzy k-means clustering algorithm. The results show that although the optimization of industrial structure in city A has achieved some results, the more intuitive problems mainly include low labor productivity of the primary industry, strong resource dependence, insufficient extension of industrial chain, and slow development of technology intensive industries. This paper uses fuzzy k-means clustering algorithm to select the leading industries from the perspective of the current situation of leading industries, urban development pattern, and regional policies in city A. The results show that, as a renewable resource-based city, the leading industries suitable for the current development of city A include manufacturing, power, alkali gas and water production and supply, transportation, warehousing and postal industry, leasing, and business services. The results of fuzzy k-means clustering algorithm are quite excellent, and the accuracy rate is 93.3%. This paper uses the grey dynamic linear programming model to predict the future development of the Urban A business model and combines the selection of key functions to obtain the best business model: deep and efficient technical equipment as a good goal, achieved through regional logistics, transportation, new services, etc., to enhance the output value of the tertiary industry in city A and optimize the internal structure of the secondary industry in city A.

Scaling behavior of public procurement activity.

Public procurement refers to the purchase by public sector entities-such as government departments or local authorities-of Services, Goods, or Works. It accounts for a significant share of OECD countries' expenditures. However, while governments are expected to execute them as efficiently as possible, there is a lack of methodologies for an adequate comparison of procurement activity between institutions at different scales, which represents a challenge for policymakers and academics. Here, we propose using methods borrowed from urban scaling laws literature to study public procurement activity among 278 Portuguese municipalities between 2011 and 2018. We find that public procurement expenditure scales sublinearly with population size, indicating an economy of scale for public spending as cities increase their population size. Moreover, when looking at the municipal Scale-Adjusted Indicators (the deviations from the scaling law) by contract categories-Works, Goods, and Services-we are able to identify a richer local characterisation of municipalities based on the similarity of procurement activity. These results make up a framework for quantitatively studying local public expenditure by enabling policymakers a more appropriate foundation for comparative analysis.

Reconciling biome-wide conservation of an apex carnivore with land-use economics in the increasingly threatened Pantanal wetlands.

Conservation of carnivores involves finding solutions to minimize habitat loss and human-wildlife conflict. Understanding the nature of land-use economics can allow us to mitigate both threats. In the Pantanal, the two main economic activities are cattle ranching and ecotourism, each of which directly and indirectly affect the persistence of jaguars (Panthera onca). To understand how the geography of these economic activities is related to jaguar populations, we developed a jaguar distribution model (JDM), livestock density model, and ecotourism lodge density model for the Pantanal. Due to the recent wildfires within the Pantanal, we also assess the impact of burnt areas that are suitable for jaguars, cattle ranching, and tourism. Our JDM indicate that 64% of the Pantanal holds suitable habitat for jaguars. However, jaguar habitat suitability was positively correlated with ecotourism, but negatively correlated with areas most suitable for intensive cattle-ranching. This demonstrates a biome-wide scenario compatible with jaguar conservation. Of particular concern, recent wildfires overlap most suitable areas for jaguars. If wildfires become increasingly frequent, this would represent a serious threat to jaguars and many other wildlife populations. We emphasize the global importance of the Pantanal wetland ecoregion as a key stronghold for long-term jaguar conservation.

Inter-metropolitan land price characteristics and pattern in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, China.

Land prices are the key problem of urban land management, with prices of residential land being the most sensitive and the strongest social reflection among the different land types. Exploring spatial and temporal variation of residential land prices and the effect of land market factors on residential land prices can help the government formulate targeted regulations and policies. This study analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution of residential land prices and the factors influencing the land market in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on land transaction data from 2014-2017 using exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The results show the following: ① Residential land prices in Beijing and Tianjin are significantly higher than those in other regions, while Zhangjiakou, Chengde, and western mountainous areas have the lowest residential land prices. Over time, a development trend of residential land price polycentricity gradually emerged, and the locational correlation has gradually increased. ② Under the influence of the land finance model of local governments in China, three factors, namely, the land stock utilization rate, revenue from residential land transfers, and the growth of residential land transaction areas, have significantly contributed to the increase in residential land prices. ③ Under the land market supply and demand mechanism and government management, four indicators, namely, the land supply rate, the per capita residential land supply area, the degree of marketization of the residential land supply, and the frequency of residential land transactions, have suppressed the rise in residential land prices. ④ The overall effect of land market factors on residential land prices in the central and northern regions of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is stronger than that in the southern regions, which may be related to the more active land market and stricter macromanagement policies in Beijing, Tianjin and surrounding areas.

Relationships between urbanization and CO2 emissions in China: An empirical analysis of population migration.

China's announcement of its goal of carbon neutrality has increased the practical significance of research on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that result from urbanization. With a comprehensive consideration of population migration in China, this study examines the impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions based on provincial panel data from 2000 to 2012. Two indicators (resident population and household registration population) are used to measure urbanization rate. The results reveal that the impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions in China is closely correlated with the structure of urban resident population and interregional population migration. The estimation results are still robust by using generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimator. The proportion of temporary residents is introduced as a proxy variable for population migration. The panel threshold model regression results show that the proportion of temporary residents has a marginal effect on the relationship between urbanization and CO2 emissions. In regions with a higher proportion of temporary residents, the positive effects of resident population urbanization on CO2 emissions tend to be weaker. These findings are consistent with the theories of ecological modernization and urban environmental transition. This paper makes suggestions on China's urbanization development model and countermeasures are proposed to minimize the CO2 emissions caused by urbanization.

Spatiotemporal pattern and coordination relationship between urban residential land price and land use intensity in 31 provinces and cities in China.

The trend towards efficient and intensive use of land resources is an inevitable outcome of current social development. The rational matching of urban land prices and land use intensity has become an important factor under accelerating urbanization, and promotes the healthy development of the social economy. Using data on residential land price and on land use intensity for 31 provinces and cities in China, we employ the E-G cointegration test and quadrant map classification to determine the coordination relationship between land price and land use intensity. We then employ HR coordination to calculate the coordination degree of land price and land use intensity, and classify the coordination type accordingly. Our results are as follows. (1) The spatio-temporal distribution of urban land price shows high variability with multiple maxima, and follows a decreasing trend from the southeast coastal area to the northwest inland area and the northeast. (2) The overall land use intensity is at or above the middle level, and shows large spatial differences between provinces, but the agglomeration between provinces is increasing. (3) From the perspective of the relationship between urban land price and land use intensity at the inter-provincial scale, we find that the land price and land use intensity are well coordinated, and the number of provinces has been dynamically changing during different development periods. There is an east-west difference in the spatial distribution of land price and land use intensity coordination level. Different provinces and cities with the same coordination stage show differences in their land price and land use intensity level.

Spatiotemporal characteristics and impact mechanism of high-quality development of cultural tourism in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration.

The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is the leading and demonstration area for the high-quality development of culture tourism (HDCT) in China. It is of great significance to study the spatiotemporal characteristics and impact mechanism of the HDCT for revealing the internal law of HDCT and promoting the collaborative innovation of culture tourism among cities. Based on the scientific construction of the evaluation system of HDCT, this paper made a quantitative analysis of 26 cities' HDCT by using coupling coordination degree model, Lisa spatiotemporal transition and spatial Durbin model (SDM). The results show that: The overall level of 26 cities' HDCT shows a fluctuating upward trend, and presents a "Z" pattern in space. More than 80% of the cities are at the medium and high level. Shanghai has obvious advantages in the primacy degree. There is a significant positive spatial autocorrelation among cities with high-quality of culture tourism development. The spatial clustering and proximity of the same kind are increasing, and the radiation effect is gradually obvious. The local spatial association patterns are mainly HH and LL agglomeration, and the characteristics of polarization are gradually prominent. The local spatial correlation structure of HDCT has strong stability, the transfer inertia between types is prominent, and the overall spatial evolution is lack of integration with obvious path dependence and lock-in effect. The spatiotemporal evolution of the HDCT is a complex process under the interaction of multiple factors, and there is a significant spatial spillover effect (0.256). The level of economic development, technological innovation, professional talent allocation are the three main factors. According to the dominant factor, it can be divided into economy stabilizing type, industry optimizing type, innovation driving type and traffic impacting type. These findings have implications for local governments and tourism management departments to achieve high-quality innovative development of cultural tourism.

Spatio-temporal evolution of urban thermal environment and its driving factors: Case study of Nanjing, China.

In recent years, with rapid urbanization, the underlying urban surface has changed dramatically. Various urban eco-environmental problems have emerged globally, among which the urban heat island effect has become one of the most obvious urban eco-environmental problems. In this study, Nanjing, China, was chosen as the study area. Based on Landsat 8 remote sensing image data collected in Nanjing from 2014 to 2018, land surface temperatures were retrieved, the spatiotemporal variation track and characteristics of the thermal environment pattern were systematically depicted, and the driving factors of these variations were revealed. The results show that over the past five years, the spatial pattern of the heat field in Nanjing changed from a scattered distribution in the periphery of the city to a centralized distribution in the centre of the city, and the heat island intensity increased annually. Changes in administrative divisions, changes in the layout of the transportation trunk lines, transfer of industrial centres, and ecological construction projects are important driving factors for the evolution of the land surface thermal environment patterns of these regions. These research results will provide scientific and technological support for similar cities with typical heat island effects elsewhere in the world to formulate urban development plan, and to improve the urban ecological environment.

Identification and analysis of urban functional area in Hangzhou based on OSM and POI data.

The accurate identification of urban functional areas is of great significance for optimizing urban spatial structure, rationally allocating spatial elements, and promoting the sustainable development of the city. This paper proposes a method to precisely identify urban functional areas by coupling Open Street Map (OSM) and Point of Interest (POI) data. It takes the central urban area of Hangzhou as a case study to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics of the functional areas. The results show that: (1) The central urban areas of Hangzhou are divided into 21 functional areas (6 single functional areas, 14 mixed functional areas and 1 comprehensive functional area). (2) The single functional areas and the mixed functional areas show the geographical distribution characteristics of the looping stratification, which means "Core-periphery" differentiation is obvious, and the comprehensive functional area is relatively scattered. (3) The mixed degree of regional function with ecological function and production function is low while comprehensive functional areas are usually associated with higher potential and vitality. (4) The identification results are in great agreement with the actual situation of Hangzhou central urban area, and the method is feasible. Therefore, this paper can provide a reference for urban development planning and management.

Dynamic evolution and scenario simulation of habitat quality under the impact of land-use change in the Huaihe River Economic Belt, China.

Habitat quality is an important indicator for evaluating the biodiversity provided by ecosystem. Estimating and scenario-simulating the dynamic evolution and future development trends of habitat quality under the influence of land-use change is significant in regional biodiversity conservation, formulating land-use planning, and maintaining the ecological environmental sustainability. In this article, we included the Huaihe River Economic Belt as the area of study because of its vital location in China and applied the CA-Markov and InVEST models to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of habitat quality and to simulate the future development trends of habitat quality under three different land-use scenarios: fast urban growth scenario, farmland conservation-oriented scenario, and ecological conservation-oriented scenario. The results showed that the land-use change in the Huaihe River Economic Belt was mostly represented by the continuous increase of the built-up area, whereas other land types all declined in area from 1995 to 2015. The land-use changes under these three abovementioned alternative future scenarios with different development orientations were considerably different. The built-up area has been shown to expand rapidly to occupy other land types on a large scale under the fast urban growth scenario. Urban land increased slightly and a large area of rural residential land would be converted into farmland under the farmland conservation-oriented scenario. The built-up area and farmland might decrease while woodland, grassland and water would increase in extent of areas under the ecological conservation-oriented scenario. Habitat quality has been shown to be generally poor, continuing to decline from 1995 to 2015, while its spatial distribution was higher in the southwest and northeast areas and lower in the central regions. The future habitat quality would display a downward trend under the fast urban growth and farmland conservation-oriented scenarios with a further deterioration of the ecological environment, while the ecological conservation-oriented scenario predicted the converse trend that the ecological environment would be improved productively. This study may be useful for understanding the impact of land-use dynamics on biodiversity. The research results can provide a scientific basis for the decision-makers to formulate biodiversity conservation and land management policies.

Relationships between migration and the fiscal sustainability of the pension system in China.

There are a few existing studies on whether domestic migration improves China's pension system's fiscal sustainability in the context of rapid urbanization and industrialization. In this paper, we systematically investigate the impact of migration on the solvency of the worker's old-age insurance for urban employees by constructing actuarial and econometric models. We use panel data from 2002 to 2018, collected from 31 provinces in China. The results show that the association between migration and the solvency of pensions is an inverted-U shape along the urbanization process. Further regional comparison showed that the above-stated inverted-U curve is more pronounced in the central and western regions. We also established that the number of participants and the contribution base are the main contributors to these results. Our conclusions are important for future population policies and public pension systems in China.

User demands analysis of Eco-city based on the Kano model-An application to China case study.

Eco-cities have witnessed rapid growth in these years worldwide. As the Eco-cities entering operation stage gradually, more and more researchers have found that users (who are living or working in the Eco-cities) satisfaction is one of the most important factors to determine the success or failure of Eco-cities. Therefore, it is very important to investigate the user demands to attract more citizens willing to live or work in the Eco-cities, which will make the development of Eco-cities more sustainable and solid. The recent researches on user demands investigation and analysis in the Eco-cities mainly focused on understanding the user need itself, yet lack of research on the relationship between the user demand and user satisfaction. This paper initially introduced the Kano model analysis method to the research field of user demands in Eco-city, to explore the relationship between the user demand and user satisfaction. After proposing user demands library in Eco-city (including Land use, Ecological environment, Green building, Energy utilization, etc.), the user demands classification and importance analysis methods of Eco-city were proposed based on Kano model. The questionnaire survey for users of two Eco-cities in China as case study was conducted, consisted of user demand items questionnaire based on the Kano model and a questionnaire on the importance of the user demand items. By utilizing the integration of quantitative analysis methods based on the Kano model and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method, the final ranking of user demands importance was obtained. Comparing with the existing literatures in terms of user demands research for Eco-city, the user demands analysis method based on Kano model of this paper, is able to reveal the influence degree of user satisfaction towards the facilities and services provided in the Eco-city. The user demands analysis method can be used for other researchers worldwide to investigate and quantitively analyze user demands according to their local development situation and preference of Eco-city. The user demands analysis results obtained through this method, can benefit different stages of Eco-city.

The gap of water supply-Demand and its driving factors: From water footprint view in Huaihe River Basin.

Climate change, population growth, the development of industrialization and urbanization are increasing the demand for water resources, but the water pollution is reducing the limited water supply. In recent years, the gap between water supply and demand which shows water scarcity situation is becoming more serious. Clear knowing this gap and its main driving factors could help us to put forward water protection measures correctly. We take the data of Huaihe River Basin from 2001 to 2016 as an example and use ecological water footprint to describe the demand, with the water carrying capacity representing the supply. We analyze the water supply-demand situation of Huaihe River Basin and its five provinces from footprint view in time and space. Then we apply the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model to analyze the driving factors of the ecological water footprint. The results show that: (1) the supply and demand balance of Huaihe River Basin was only achieved in year 2003 and 2005. There is also a large difference between Jiangsu province and other provinces in Huaihe River basin, most years in Jiangsu province per capital ecological footprint of water is more than 1 hm2/person except the years of 2003, 2015, and 2016. But other provinces are all less than 1 hm2/person. (2) Through the decomposition of water demand drivers, we concluded that economic development is the most important factor, with an annual contribution of more than 60%. Our study provides countermeasures and suggestions for the management and optimal allocation of water resources in Huaihe River Basin, and also provides reference for the formulation of water-saving policies in the world.

The Burden of Early Childhood Caries in Children under 5 Years Old in the European Union and Associated Risk Factors: An Ecological Study.

The associations among early childhood caries (ECC), socioeconomic status, and sugar consumption are of the utmost importance, due to their potential policy implications. The purpose of this study was to identify trends in ECC burden in children under 5 years old among European Union (EU) member states over time and to evaluate the relationship with its risk factors. Global Burden of Disease 2019 data were analyzed to estimate the burden of ECC over time, specifically incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for children under 5 years old. Four ecological variables with a potential effect on YLDs for ECC were used to investigate the association between 2014 and 2017. The YLDs rate was consistently higher among Eastern EU countries over time. Univariate models showed a positive significant association between at-risk-of-poverty rate and YLDs rate, while GDP per capita and urbanization were inversely associated with YLDs rate. In the multivariate analysis, sugar consumption, GDP per capita and urbanization showed significant association with YLDs rate. After stratification by region, association remained significant only in the Eastern EU countries between GDP, urbanization, and YLDs rate, while sugar consumption and at-risk-of-poverty rate had no significant impact on YLDs rates. This study found increasing ECC burden in the EU. The complexity of the problem indicates the need for innovative and personalized policy approaches to tackle the disease.

Identification of urban land use efficiency by indicator-SDG 11.3.1.

Inefficiency in urban land use is one of the problems caused by rapid urbanization. The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) indicator 11.3.1 is designed to test urban land use efficiency. This study employed geospatial and statistical data to compute land use efficiencies from 1990 to 2015 with five 5-year and ten 15-year intervals in Wukang, center of Deqing County, China. A flowchart was designed to extract the built-up lands from multiple data sources. The produced built-up lands were demonstrated to provide good accuracy by constructing an error matrix between the extracted and manually interpreted built-up lands as classified and reference images, respectively. By using the model provided by UN metadata to calculate SDG 11.3.1, the land use efficiencies from 1990 to 2015 were identified in Wukang. Our results indicate that the land use efficiency in Deqing County center is lower than the average of cities around the world, primarily because our in-situ study focused on a county center with larger rural regions than urban areas. Over the long term, urban land use becomes denser as the population grows, which will have a positive impact on the sustainability of urban development. This work is helpful for the local government to balance urban land consumption and population growth.

Metropolitan Reclassification and the Urbanization of Rural America.

We highlight the paradoxical implications of decadal reclassification of U.S. counties (and America's population) from nonmetropolitan to metropolitan status between 1960 and 2017. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we show that the reclassification of U.S. counties has been a significant engine of metropolitan growth and nonmetropolitan decline. Over the study period, 753-or nearly 25% of all nonmetropolitan counties-were redefined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) as metropolitan, shifting nearly 70 million residents from nonmetropolitan to metropolitan America by 2017. All the growth since 1970 in the metropolitan share of the U.S. population came from reclassification rather than endogenous growth in existing metropolitan areas. Reclassification of nonmetropolitan counties also had implications for drawing appropriate inferences about rural poverty, population aging, education, and economic growth. The paradox is that these many nonmetropolitan "winners"-those experiencing population and economic growth-have, over successive decades, left behind many nonmetropolitan counties with limited prospects for growth. Our study provides cautionary lessons regarding the commonplace narrative of widespread rural decline and economic malaise but also highlights the interdependent demographic fates of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties.