Hepatitis vaccination adherence and completion rates and factors associated with low compliance: A claims-based analysis of U.S. adults.

Poor compliance with multi-dose vaccine schedules by adults for whom hepatitis (Hep) A and B vaccines are recommended contributes to major Hep A and B disease burdens among high-risk U.S. adults. Evidence on hepatitis vaccine series adherence, completion, timeliness of completion, and factors associated with these outcomes, is limited and not readily generalizable for U.S. adults. This retrospective, observational study examined adherence, completion, its timeliness, and the impact of sociodemographic and clinical factors on these outcomes among a large, geographically representative sample of U.S. adults. We analyzed the Optum Clinformatics SES administrative claims database (1/1/2010-6/30/2020) for recipients of 2-dose (HepA, HepB2) or 3-dose (HepB3, HepAB) hepatitis vaccines. Adherence was defined as receipt of booster doses within specified assessment periods, per label-recommended schedules. Completion (receipt of all doses) was assessed at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months.The study included 356,828 adults ≥19 years old who were continuously enrolled in a medical benefit plan for one (HepB2), six (HepB3; HepAB), or 18 months (HepA) prior to and following the index date (first observed vaccine dose). Adherence and 24-month completion rates were: HepA (27.0%, 28.4%), HepB2 (32.2%, 44.8%), HepB3 (14.3%, 37.3%), HepAB, (15.3%, 33.8%). Kaplan-Meier completion curves plateaued after about 6 months for HepB2 and about 12 months for HepA, HepB3, and HepAB vaccines. Logistic regression analyses showed risk for low adherence/completion was generally associated with male gender, younger age, Black or Hispanic race/ethnicity, lower educational or household income attainment, and more comorbidities. Adherence and completion rates for all hepatitis vaccine series are low, especially for males, younger adults, those with lower socio-economic status and more comorbidities. To our knowledge, this is the largest claims-based analysis of adherence and completion rates for U.S. adults initiating all currently available HepA and HepB vaccines. Findings may inform hepatitis vaccination programming.

Molecular characterization of hepatitis A virus circulating in Uttar Pradesh, India: A hospital-based study.

Background & objectives: Hepatitis A is prevalent worldwide and is among the leading cause of acute viral hepatitis in India. Major geographical differences in endemicity of hepatitis A are closely related to hygienic and sanitary conditions and other indicators of the level of socio-economic development. The present study was aimed to know the seropositivity prevalence and predominant circulating strain of HAV in a north India. Methods: Patients with acute viral hepatitis were enrolled. Blood samples were collected over a period of one year from June 2016 to May 2017. Serum samples were tested for anti-immunoglobulin M (IgM) HAV antibodies. The seropositive samples were analyzed for HAV-RNA by real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Samples detected on molecular assay were subjected to conventional semi-nested RT-PCR for VP1 gene. Further sequencing of amplified RT-PCR products was done, and data were analyzed. Results: A total of 1615 patients were enrolled, and serum samples were collected and tested. The male:female ratio was 1.3:1 with a mean age of 24.31±17.02 yr (range 0-83 yr). Among these, 128 (7.93%) were positive for anti-HAV IgM antibodies; 41.63 per cent of seropositive patients were in their childhood or early adolescent age group. Of all seropositive samples, 59 (46.09%) were positive for HAV RNA. Genotyping sequencing of 10 representative strains was carried out, and the circulating genotype was found to be IIIA. The nucleotide sequences showed homology among the strains. Interpretation & conclusions: Our results showed that hepatitis A was a common disease in children with IIIA as a circulating genotype in this region. In approximately 50 per cent of cases, HAV RNA could be detected. Higher number of HAV IgM-seropositive cases was observed during monsoon period.

Bayesian modelling of a hepatitis A outbreak in men who have sex with men in Sydney, Australia, 1991/1992.

To control hepatitis A spread by vaccination, accurate estimation of transmissibility is vital. Regan et al. (2016) proposed a model of hepatitis A virus (HAV) transmission and used least squares to calibrate model to the 1991/1992 HAV outbreak in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Sydney, Australia. Based on the estimate of R0, they obtained the critical immunity of 70% and showed that when the proportion immune <70%, there is a definite chance for outbreaks to take place. The immunity level from previous surveys ranges from 32% to 64% after 1996 while no outbreaks in Australian MSMs have been reported since 1996. Further noticing the ill-distributed parameters, we argue that their estimate of R0 is not accurate. In this study, we revisited their model by Bayesian inference, which has privilege over least squares. We obtained the appropriate posterior distributions of parameters and the estimate of R0 ranges from 1.38 to 2.89, indicating a critical immunity of 65%. The reduction in critical immunity and outbreak probabilities predicts the absence of outbreaks in Australian MSMs since 1996. Our study shows the importance of using appropriate methods to provide reliable and accurate estimates of the model parameters especially the transmissibility.

Improving preparedness to respond to cross-border hepatitis A outbreaks in the European Union/European Economic Area: towards comparable sequencing of hepatitis A virus.

IntroductionSequence-based typing of hepatitis A virus (HAV) is important for outbreak detection, investigation and surveillance. In 2013, sequencing was central to resolving a large European Union (EU)-wide outbreak related to frozen berries. However, as the sequenced HAV genome regions were only partly comparable between countries, results were not always conclusive.AimThe objective was to gather information on HAV surveillance and sequencing in EU/European Economic Area (EEA) countries to find ways to harmonise their procedures, for improvement of cross-border outbreak responses.MethodsIn 2014, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) conducted a survey on HAV surveillance practices in EU/EEA countries. The survey enquired whether a referral system for confirming primary diagnostics of hepatitis A existed as well as a central collection/storage of hepatitis A cases' samples for typing. Questions on HAV sequencing procedures were also asked. Based on the results, an expert consultation proposed harmonised procedures for cross-border outbreak response, in particular regarding sequencing. In 2016, a follow-up survey assessed uptake of suggested methods.ResultsOf 31 EU/EEA countries, 23 (2014) and 27 (2016) participated. Numbers of countries with central collection and storage of HAV positive samples and of those performing sequencing increased from 12 to 15 and 12 to 14 respectively in 2016, with all countries typing an overlapping fragment of 218 nt. However, variation existed in the sequenced genomic regions and their lengths.ConclusionsWhile HAV sequences in EU/EEA countries are comparable for surveillance, collaboration in sharing and comparing these can be further strengthened.

Missing the Match Might Not Cost You the Game: Primer-Template Mismatches Studied in Different Hepatitis A Virus Variants.

Mismatches between template sequences and reverse transcription (RT) or polymerase chain reaction (PCR) primers can lead to underestimation or false negative results during detection and quantification of sequence-diverse viruses. We performed an in silico inclusivity analysis of a widely used RT-PCR assay for detection of hepatitis A virus (HAV) in food, described in ISO 15216-1. One of the most common mismatches found was a single G (primer) to U (template) mismatch located at the terminal 3'-end of the reverse primer region. This mismatch was present in all genotype III sequences available in GenBank. Partial HAV genomes with common or potentially severe mismatches were produced by in vitro transcription and analysed using RT-ddPCR and RT-qPCR. When using standard conditions for RT-qPCR, the mismatch identified resulted in underestimation of the template concentration by a factor of 1.7-1.8 and an increase in 95% limit of detection from 8.6 to 19 copies/reaction. The effect of this mismatch was verified using full-length viral genomes. Here, the same mismatch resulted in underestimation of the template concentration by a factor of 2.8. For the partial genomes, the presence of additional mismatches resulted in underestimation of the template concentration by up to a factor of 232. Quantification by RT-ddPCR and RT-qPCR was equally affected during analysis of RNA templates with mismatches within the reverse primer region. However, on analysing DNA templates with the same mismatches, we found that ddPCR quantification was less affected by mismatches than qPCR due to the end-point detection technique.

Assessment of the risk for human health of Enterovirus and Hepatitis A virus in clinical and water sources from three metropolitan cities of Pakistan.

INTRODUCTION: Molecular studies have confirmed the silent circulation of enterovirus (EntV) and hepatitis A virus in the environment, even in the absence of clinical manifestation. Viral pathogens are among the major causes of disease outbreaks, particularly in the bigger cities and both in the developed and underdeveloped nations. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Between June 2016 - June 2017, 97 samples of drinking water, river water polluted with sewage and blood were selected and obtained from high risk communities in Pakistan. Negatively charged membrane filters were used to concentrate the virus, followed by the use of specific PCR primers set for quick identification of the waterborne viruses. RESULTS: Enteroviruses were recovered from 40%, 28.57% and 33.33% of river water polluted with sewage samples in Lahore, Islamabad and Rawalpindi, respectively, while the presence of 13.13% and 11.76% of viral load was also confirmed in the drinking water of Lahore and Rawalpindi, respectively. A high prevalence of HAV (12.5% and 21.05%) was also verified in the clinical samples. Phylogenetic analysis indicated close resemblance of HAV isolates with the Indian strains. This study is the first ever comparative analysis of the EntV and HAV isolated from environmental samples and clinical specimen on a molecular level. CONCLUSIONS: The parallel surveillance of EntV and HAV in the river water polluted with sewage, and clinical samples is quite helpful for controlling and reducing the disease burden of the waterborne illnesses.

Low occurrence of Hepatitis A virus in water samples from an urban area of Southern Brazil.

Hepatitis A virus (HAV), a member of Picornaviridae family, is the main causative agent of acute viral hepatitis in the world, mainly in developing countries. HAV may be present in contaminated water and food and its presence is often associated to a lesser extent with socioeconomic factors and environmental quality. The main goals in the present study were to standardize a cell culture combined to a polymerase chain reaction protocol for the detection and quantification of viral viability and analyze whether the virus could be found in water samples collected in four urban streams of Sinos River watershed. Virus recovery was assayed from known virus concentrations measured in experimentally contaminated raw and ultrapure water (MilliQ®). Recovery rates ranged from 270% in raw water to 15,000% in ultrapure water. In a second step, a qPCR coupled to a previous passage in cells, demonstrated more analytical sensitivity when compared to samples assayed without a previous passage in cell cultures. HAV genome was detected in only 1 of 84 samples analyzed, pointing to a very low occurrence of HAV in water samples in the studied region. These findings are remarkable, since no more than 5% of the domestic sewage in this area is treated pointing to a low occurrence of HAV in the population living nearby during the study period.

Hepatitis A outbreak disproportionately affecting men who have sex with men (MSM) in the European Union and European Economic Area, June 2016 to May 2017.

Between 1 June 2016 and 31 May 2017, 17 European Union (EU) and European Economic Area countries reported 4,096 cases associated with a multi-country hepatitis A (HA) outbreak. Molecular analysis identified three co-circulating hepatitis A virus (HAV) strains of genotype IA: VRD_521_2016, V16-25801 and RIVM-HAV16-090. We categorised cases as confirmed, probable or possible, according to the EU outbreak case definitions. Confirmed cases were infected with one of the three outbreak strains. We investigated case characteristics and strain-specific risk factors for transmission. A total of 1,400 (34%) cases were confirmed; VRD_521_2016 and RIVM-HAV16-090 accounted for 92% of these. Among confirmed cases with available epidemiological data, 92% (361/393) were unvaccinated, 43% (83/195) travelled to Spain during the incubation period and 84% (565/676) identified as men who have sex with men (MSM). Results depict an HA outbreak of multiple HAV strains, within a cross-European population, that was particularly driven by transmission between non-immune MSM engaging in high-risk sexual behaviour. The most effective preventive measure to curb this outbreak is HAV vaccination of MSM, supplemented by primary prevention campaigns that target the MSM population and promote protective sexual behaviour.

Evaluation of the suitability of a plant virus, pepper mild mottle virus, as a surrogate of human enteric viruses for assessment of the efficacy of coagulation-rapid sand filtration to remove those viruses.

Here, we evaluated the removal of three representative human enteric viruses - adenovirus (AdV) type 40, coxsackievirus (CV) B5, and hepatitis A virus (HAV) IB - and one surrogate of human caliciviruses - murine norovirus (MNV) type 1 - by coagulation-rapid sand filtration, using water samples from eight water sources for drinking water treatment plants in Japan. The removal ratios of a plant virus (pepper mild mottle virus; PMMoV) and two bacteriophages (MS2 and φX174) were compared with the removal ratios of human enteric viruses to assess the suitability of PMMoV, MS2, and φX174 as surrogates for human enteric viruses. The removal ratios of AdV, CV, HAV, and MNV, evaluated via the real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method, were 0.8-2.5-log10 when commercially available polyaluminum chloride (PACl, basicity 1.5) and virgin silica sand were used as the coagulant and filter medium, respectively. The type of coagulant affected the virus removal efficiency, but the age of silica sand used in the rapid sand filtration did not. Coagulation-rapid sand filtration with non-sulfated, high-basicity PACls (basicity 2.1 or 2.5) removed viruses more efficiently than the other aluminum-based coagulants. The removal ratios of MS2 were sometimes higher than those of the three human enteric viruses and MNV, whereas the removal ratios of φX174 tended to be smaller than those of the three human enteric viruses and MNV. In contrast, the removal ratios of PMMoV were similar to and strongly correlated with those of the three human enteric viruses and MNV. Thus, PMMoV appears to be a suitable surrogate for human enteric viruses for the assessment of the efficacy of coagulation-rapid sand filtration to remove viruses.

Development of a One-Step Duplex RT-PCR Method for the Simultaneous Detection of VP3/VP1 and VP1/P2B Regions of the Hepatitis A Virus.

The simultaneous detection and accurate identification of hepatitis A virus (HAV) is critical in food safety and epidemiological studies to prevent the spread of HAV outbreaks. Towards this goal, a one-step duplex reverse-transcription (RT)-PCR method was developed targeting the VP1/P2B and VP3/VP1 regions of the HAV genome for the qualitative detection of HAV. An HAV RT-qPCR standard curve was produced for the quantification of HAV RNA. The detection limit of the duplex RT-PCR method was 2.8 × 10(1) copies of HAV. The PCR products enabled HAV genotyping analysis through DNA sequencing, which can be applied for epidemiological investigations. The ability of this duplex RT-PCR method to detect HAV was evaluated with HAV-spiked samples of fresh lettuce, frozen strawberries, and oysters. The limit of detection of the one-step duplex RT-PCR for each food model was 9.4 × 10(2) copies/20 g fresh lettuce, 9.7 × 10(3) copies/20 g frozen strawberries, and 4.1 × 10(3) copies/1.5 g oysters. Use of a one-step duplex RT-PCR method has advantages such as shorter time, decreased cost, and decreased labor owing to the single amplification reaction instead of four amplifications necessary for nested RT-PCR.

Concentration and detection of hepatitis A virus and its indicator from artificial seawater using zeolite.

Hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection is the leading worldwide cause of acute viral hepatitis, and outbreaks caused by this virus often occur in fecal polluted waters. Rapid concentration and detection of viral contamination in water environments can prevent economic loss and can identify the source of contamination within a short time. However, conventional methods for virus concentration are often laborious, time consuming, and subject to clogging. Furthermore, most methods require a secondary concentration step to reduce the final volume of samples. We developed a method to concentrate HAV from seawater using zeolite in aid of rapid detection. In this method,artificial seawater was inoculated with HAV (7-8 log TCID50) and filtered with zeolite. The viruses were then eluted from zeolite with sodium dodecyl sulfate and detected via real-time PCR (qPCR). Zeolite was able to concentrate HAV from artificial seawater with ∼99% efficiency in less than 5min and was more efficient in seawater than in fresh water. The entire concentration and detection can be done in approximately 2h. Compared to existing methods, this method eliminated the need for a secondary concentration step as well as the necessity to modify the pH or salinity of the seawater during concentration, and was simple and inexpensive.

[Risk Assessment and Genotyping of Hepatitis A Virus in Fruit and Vegetable Products].

This study explored risk assessment and genotyping of hepatitis A virus(HAV)in fruit and vegetable products. Two hundred and sixteen samples of fruit and vegetable products were examined by real-time RT-PCR. Six samples tested positive for hepatitis A virus, including frozen strawberries, frozen blueberries, frozen diced potatoes, frozen diced apple and frozen raspberries, accounting for 2.8% of the total samples tested. These six HAV isolates were genotyped by nested RT-PCR amplification, and a single band was detected in isolates from frozen diced apple(210-1999)and frozen blueberries(210-2002).These two isolates belong to the HAV IB subtype, based on analysis of evolution and homology. This study provides HAV risk information for fruit and vegetable enterprises and food safety management departments. Furthermore, it lays a foundation for HAV traceability, and provides technical support to ensure product safety for enterprises at critical control points including planting, harvest, processing and packaging. These results provide reliable data for epidemiological diagnosis.

Socioeconomic inequities and hepatitis A virus infection in Western Brazilian Amazonian children: spatial distribution and associated factors.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis A is still a neglected health problem in the world. The most affected areas are the ones with disadvantaged socioeconomic conditions. In Brazil, seroprevalence studies showed that 64.7 % of the general population has antibodies against HAV (hepatitis A virus), and the Amazon region has the highest seroprevalence in the country. METHODS: In the present study the seroprevalence of total HAV antibodies in children between 1 and 5 years old residing in the urban area of Assis Brasil, Acre was measured and spatial distribution of several socioeconomic inequities was evaluated. RESULTS: In the year of 2011, seroprevalence rate was 16.66 %. Factors associated with having a positive serology identified by multivariate analysis were being of indigenous ethnicity [adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) = 3.27, CI 1.45-7.28], usage of water from the public system (aOR = 8.18, CI 1.07-62.53), living in a house not located in a street (aOR = 3.48, CI 1.54-7.87), and child age over 4 years old (aOR = 2.43, CI 1.23-4.79). The distribution of seropositive children was clustered in the eastern part of the city, where several socioeconomic inequities (lack of flushed toilets, lack of piped water inside the household and susceptibility of the household to flooding during rain, low maternal education, having wood or ground floor at home, and not owning a house, lack of piped water at home, and type of drinking water) also clustered. CONCLUSIONS: The findings highlight that sanitation and water treatment still need improvement in the Brazilian Amazon, and that socioeconomic development is warranted in order to decrease this and other infectious diseases.

Hepatitis A and E Viruses in Wastewaters, in River Waters, and in Bivalve Molluscs in Italy.

Several studies have reported the detection of hepatitis A (HAV) and E (HEV) virus in sewage waters, indicating a possibility of contamination of aquatic environments. The objective of the present study was to assess the occurrence of HAV and HEV in different water environments, following the route of contamination from raw sewage through treated effluent to the surface waters receiving wastewater discharges . Bivalve molluscan shellfish samples were also analyzed, as sentinel of marine pollution. Samples were tested by RT-PCR nested type in the VP1/2A junction for HAV, and in the ORF1 and ORF2 regions for HEV. Hepatitis A RNA was detected in 12 water samples: 7/21 (33.3%) raw sewage samples, 3/21 (14.3%) treated sewage samples, and 2/27 (7.4%) river water samples. Five sequences were classified as genotype IA, while the remaining 7 sequences belonged to genotype IB. In bivalves, HAV was detected in 13/56 samples (23.2%), 12 genotype IB and one genotype IA. Whether the presence of HAV in the matrices tested indicates the potential for waterborne and foodborne transmission is unknown, since infectivity of the virus was not demonstrated. HEV was detected in one raw sewage sample and in one river sample, both belonging to genotype 3. Sequences were similar to sequences detected previously in Italy in patients with autochthonous HEV (no travel history) and in animals (swine). To our knowledge, this is the first detection of HEV in river waters in Italy, suggesting that surface water can be a potential source for exposure .

Outbreak of Hepatitis A in Italy Associated with Frozen Redcurrants Imported from Poland: A Case Study.

Hepatitis A virus (HAV) was detected in a batch of imported non-packaged frozen redcurrants purchased in a Bari grocery. Sequence and phylogenetic analysis showed the HAV strain clustered tightly with the HAV strain from the 2013 Italian epidemic, providing additional evidence that frozen redcurrants were the main vehicle of the HAV outbreak.

Quantitative farm-to-fork risk assessment model for norovirus and hepatitis A virus in European leafy green vegetable and berry fruit supply chains.

Fresh produce that is contaminated with viruses may lead to infection and viral gastroenteritis or hepatitis when consumed raw. It is thus important to reduce virus numbers on these foods. Prevention of virus contamination in fresh produce production and processing may be more effective than treatment, as sufficient virus removal or inactivation by post-harvest treatment requires high doses that may adversely affect food quality. To date knowledge of the contribution of various potential contamination routes is lacking. A risk assessment model was developed for human norovirus, hepatitis A virus and human adenovirus in raspberry and salad vegetable supply chains to quantify contributions of potential contamination sources to the contamination of produce at retail. These models were used to estimate public health risks. Model parameterization was based on monitoring data from European supply chains and literature data. No human pathogenic viruses were found in the soft fruit supply chains; human adenovirus (hAdV) was detected, which was additionally monitored as an indicator of fecal pollution to assess the contribution of potential contamination points. Estimated risks per serving of lettuce based on the models were 3×10(-4) (6×10(-6)-5×10(-3)) for NoV infection and 3×10(-8) (7×10(-10)-3×10(-6)) for hepatitis A jaundice. The contribution to virus contamination of hand-contact was larger as compared with the contribution of irrigation, the conveyor belt or the water used for produce rinsing. In conclusion, viral contamination in the lettuce and soft fruit supply chains occurred and estimated health risks were generally low. Nevertheless, the 97.5% upper limit for the estimated NoV contamination of lettuce suggested that infection risks up to 50% per serving might occur. Our study suggests that attention to full compliance for hand hygiene will improve fresh produce safety related to virus risks most as compared to the other examined sources, given the monitoring results. This effect will be further aided by compliance with other hygiene and water quality regulations in production and processing facilities.

Qualitative and quantitative assessment of viral contamination in bivalve molluscs harvested in Italy.

Bivalve molluscs are a well documented source of viral infection. Further data on shellfish viral contamination are needed to implement European Regulations with sanitary measures more effective against viral pathogens. To this aim, 336 samples of bivalve molluscs (185 mussels, 66 clams, 23 oysters and 62 samples from other species) collected in harvesting areas of class A and B of four Italian Regions were analyzed for qualitative and quantitative determination of hepatitis A virus (HAV) and Norovirus (NoV) GI and GII, using real time RT-PCR. The results showed a wide diffusion of viral contamination in the shellfish production areas considered. HAV prevalence was low (0.9%) with contamination levels that varied from 5 to 7 × 10(2)copies/g. On the contrary, NoV showed a high prevalence (51.5%), with a large variability according to the group considered (e.g. 47.8% for Crassostrea in Veneto, 79.7% for Mytilus in Campania, 84.6% for Tapes in Sardinia). NoV contamination affected class A and class B production areas to a different extent, with a statistically significant difference in both contamination prevalence (22.1% vs. 66.3%; p<0.0001) and quantity (average contamination level of 3.1 × 10(2) vs. 1.9 × 10(3) copies/g; p<0.05). The different species analyzed from class B harvesting areas (Mytilus, Tapes/Ruditapes and Crassostrea) showed a NoV prevalence respectively of 70.3%, 66.0% and 47.8% but comparable NoV contamination levels (between 8.4 × 10(2) and 4.9 × 10(3)copies/g). Other two bivalve species considered in the study (Donax spp. and Solen spp.) showed a relevant NoV presence (40.0% and 34.4% of samples). Finally, samples analyzed before and after commercial purification treatment showed a decrease of contamination prevalence after the treatment, but inconsistent results were recorded on NoV levels. The data obtained, together with other quantitative information to estimate consumer exposure, in association with studies on dose-response and on the effectiveness of post-harvest treatments, will provide a useful tool for the definition of microbiological criteria related to the different shellfish species.

Assessment of the risks for human health of adenoviruses, hepatitis A virus, rotaviruses and enteroviruses in the Buffalo River and three source water dams in the Eastern Cape.

Buffalo River is an important water resource in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. The potential risks of infection constituted by exposure to human enteric viruses in the Buffalo River and three source water dams along its course were assessed using mean values and static quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). The daily risks of infection determined by the exponential model [for human adenovirus (HAdV) and enterovirus (EnV)] and the beta-Poisson model (for hepatitis A virus (HAV) and rotavirus (RoV)) varied with sites and exposure scenario. The estimated daily risks of infection values at the sites where the respective viruses were detected, ranged from 7.31 × 10(-3) to 1 (for HAdV), 4.23 × 10(-2) to 6.54 × 10(-1) (RoV), 2.32 × 10(-4) to 1.73 × 10(-1) (HAV) and 1.32 × 10(-4) to 5.70 × 10(-2) (EnV). The yearly risks of infection in individuals exposed to the river/dam water via drinking, recreational, domestic or irrigational activities were unacceptably high, exceeding the acceptable risk of 0.01% (10(-4) infection/person/year), and the guideline value used as by several nations for drinking water. The risks of illness and death from infection ranged from 6.58 × 10(-5) to 5.0 × 10(-1) and 6.58 × 10(-9) to 5.0 × 10(-5), respectively. The threats here are heightened by the high mortality rates for HAV, and its endemicity in South Africa. Therefore, we conclude that the Buffalo River and its source water dams are a public health hazard. The QMRA presented here is the first of its kinds in the Eastern Cape Province and provides the building block for a quantitatively oriented local guideline for water quality management in the Province.