Optimizing the Selection of Mass Vaccination Sites: Access and Equity Consideration.

In the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccine accessibility was limited, impacting large metropolitan areas such as Los Angeles County, which has over 10 million residents but only nine initial vaccination sites, which resulted in people experiencing long travel times to get vaccinated. We developed a mixed-integer linear model to optimize site selection, considering equitable access for vulnerable populations. Analyzing 277 zip codes between December 2020 and May 2021, our model incorporated factors such as car ownership, ethnic group disease vulnerability, and the Healthy Places Index, alongside travel times by car and public transit. Our optimized model significantly outperformed actual site allocations for all ethnic groups. We observed that White populations faced longer travel times, likely due to their residences being in more remote, less densely populated areas. Conversely, areas with higher Latino and Black populations, often closer to the city center, benefited from shorter travel times in our model. However, those without cars experienced greater disadvantages. While having many vaccination sites might improve access for those dependent on public transit, that advantage is diminished if people must search among many sites to find a location with available vaccines.

Temporal trends and spatial clusters of high risk for maternal death due to COVID-19 pre and during COVID-19 vaccination in Brazil: a national population-based ecological study.

OBJECTIVE: This study comprehensively analyzed the temporal and spatial dynamics of COVID-19 cases and deaths within the obstetric population in Brazil, comparing the periods before and during mass COVID-19 vaccination. We explored the trends and geographical patterns of COVID-19 cases and maternal deaths over time. We also examined their correlation with the SARS-CoV-2 variant circulating and the social determinants of health. STUDY DESIGN: This is a nationwide population-based ecological study. METHODS: We obtained data on COVID-19 cases, deaths, socioeconomic status, and vulnerability information for Brazil's 5570 municipalities for both the pre-COVID-19 vaccination and COVID-19 vaccination periods. A Bayesian model was used to mitigate indicator fluctuations. The spatial correlation of maternal cases and fatalities with socioeconomic and vulnerability indicators was assessed using bivariate Moran. RESULTS: From March 2020 to June 2023, a total of 23,823 cases and 1991 maternal fatalities were recorded among pregnant and postpartum women. The temporal trends in maternal incidence and mortality rates fluctuated over the study period, largely influenced by widespread COVID-19 vaccination and the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant. There was a significant reduction in maternal mortality due to COVID-19 following the introduction of vaccination. The geographical distribution of COVID-19 cases and maternal deaths exhibited marked heterogeneity in both periods, with distinct spatial clusters predominantly observed in the North, Northeast, and Central West regions. Municipalities with the highest Human Development Index reported the highest incidence rates, while those with the highest levels of social vulnerability exhibited elevated mortality and fatality rates. CONCLUSION: Despite the circulation of highly transmissible variants of concern, maternal mortality due to COVID-19 was significantly reduced following the mass vaccination. There was a heterogeneous distribution of cases and fatalities in both periods (before and during mass vaccination). Smaller municipalities and those grappling with social vulnerability issues experienced the highest rates of maternal mortality and fatalities.

The role of childrens' vaccination for COVID-19-Pareto-optimal allocations of vaccines.

COVID-19 vaccines have been approved for children of age five and older in many countries. However, there is an ongoing debate as to whether children should be vaccinated and at what priority. In this work, we use mathematical modeling and optimization to study how vaccine allocations to different age groups effect epidemic outcomes. In particular, we consider the effect of extending vaccination campaigns to include the vaccination of children. When vaccine availability is limited, we consider Pareto-optimal allocations with respect to competing measures of the number of infections and mortality and systematically study the trade-offs among them. In the scenarios considered, when some weight is given to the number of infections, we find that it is optimal to allocate vaccines to adolescents in the age group 10-19, even when they are assumed to be less susceptible than adults. We further find that age group 0-9 is included in the optimal allocation for sufficiently high values of the basic reproduction number.

Optimal vaccine allocation for COVID-19 in the Netherlands: A data-driven prioritization.

For the control of COVID-19, vaccination programmes provide a long-term solution. The amount of available vaccines is often limited, and thus it is crucial to determine the allocation strategy. While mathematical modelling approaches have been used to find an optimal distribution of vaccines, there is an excessively large number of possible allocation schemes to be simulated. Here, we propose an algorithm to find a near-optimal allocation scheme given an intervention objective such as minimization of new infections, hospitalizations, or deaths, where multiple vaccines are available. The proposed principle for allocating vaccines is to target subgroups with the largest reduction in the outcome of interest. We use an approximation method to reconstruct the age-specific transmission intensity (the next generation matrix), and express the expected impact of vaccinating each subgroup in terms of the observed incidence of infection and force of infection. The proposed approach is firstly evaluated with a simulated epidemic and then applied to the epidemiological data on COVID-19 in the Netherlands. Our results reveal how the optimal allocation depends on the objective of infection control. In the case of COVID-19, if we wish to minimize deaths, the optimal allocation strategy is not efficient for minimizing other outcomes, such as infections. In simulated epidemics, an allocation strategy optimized for an outcome outperforms other strategies such as the allocation from young to old, from old to young, and at random. Our simulations clarify that the current policy in the Netherlands (i.e., allocation from old to young) was concordant with the allocation scheme that minimizes deaths. The proposed method provides an optimal allocation scheme, given routine surveillance data that reflect ongoing transmissions. This approach to allocation is useful for providing plausible simulation scenarios for complex models, which give a more robust basis to determine intervention strategies.

What drives small-scale farmers to vaccinate their multiple livestock species animals against common infectious diseases in Myanmar?

Livestock rearing is an important income source for small-scale farmers in Myanmar, but Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and Newcastle disease (ND) are major constraints to livestock production. A study was conducted to identify perceptions of farmers about FMD and ND disease risks and perceptions about vaccination practices by using the modified health belief model. The majority of livestock farmers (>70%) reported that they were aware of the risk and impact of FMD and ND and were willing to vaccinate their livestock (>60%). Focusing on three main livestock farmer groups, about 17.0% of cattle, 15.4% of village chicken, but only 2.3% of small ruminant owners, indicated that the non-availability of vaccinations in the villages was the major constraint to vaccinations (p<0.001), while in contrast twice as many small ruminant farmers compared to cattle and village chicken farmers indicated they had no knowledge about vaccinations and no funds to conduct vaccinations. Limited accessibility to vaccines and vaccinators was related to size of villages (p = 0.001 for cattle; p = 0.027 for small ruminants; p = 0.005 for village chicken). Willingness to vaccinate small ruminants against FMD was associated with the perceived impact of the disease on sales and accessibility of information about vaccination. Accessibility to information about ND vaccination influenced the willingness of village chicken farmers to conduct vaccinations. In addition, beliefs in the effectiveness of vaccinations played a major role in the willingness to carry out vaccinations on both, cattle (ß = 0.3, p = 0.018) and village chicken farms (ß = 0.5, p<0.001). Our study highlights that policies that increase the accessibility of vaccines and the dissemination of information about disease prevention and vaccination practices in villages of all sizes, have the potential to increase FMD and ND vaccination rates and thereby reduce outbreak occurrence in Myanmar. On the other hand, indirect factors, such as village size strongly influenced the availability of vaccinations.

Social and economic inequality in coronavirus disease 2019 vaccination coverage across Illinois counties.

Prior research has well established the association of ethno-racial and economic inequality with COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates across counties in the US. In this ecological study, a similar association was found between ethno-racial and economic inequality and COVID-19 full vaccination rates across the 102 counties in the American state of Illinois in the early months of vaccination. Among the counties with income inequality below the median, a county's poverty rate had a negative association with the proportion of population fully vaccinated. However, among the counties with income inequality above the median, a higher percentage of Black or Hispanic population was persistently associated with a lower proportion of fully vaccinated population over the two-month period from early February to early April of 2021.

Evidence of disorientation towards immunization on online social media after contrasting political communication on vaccines. Results from an analysis of Twitter data in Italy.

BACKGROUND: In Italy, in recent years, vaccination coverage for key immunizations as MMR has been declining to worryingly low levels, with large measles outbreaks. As a response in 2017, the Italian government expanded the number of mandatory immunizations introducing penalties to unvaccinated children's families. During the 2018 general elections campaign, immunization policy entered the political debate with the government in-charge blaming oppositions for fuelling vaccine scepticism. A new government (formerly in the opposition) established in 2018 temporarily relaxed penalties and announced the introduction of forms of flexibility. OBJECTIVES AND METHODS: First, we supplied a definition of disorientation, as the "lack of well-established and resilient opinions among individuals, therefore causing them to change their positions as a consequence of sufficient external perturbations". Second, procedures for testing for the presence of both short and longer-term collective disorientation in Twitter signals were proposed. Third, a sentiment analysis on tweets posted in Italian during 2018 on immunization topics, and related polarity evaluations, were used to investigate whether the contrasting announcements at the highest political level might have originated disorientation amongst the Italian public. RESULTS: Vaccine-relevant tweeters' interactions peaked in response to main political events. Out of retained tweets, 70.0% resulted favourable to vaccination, 16.4% unfavourable, and 13.6% undecided, respectively. The smoothed time series of polarity proportions exhibit frequent large changes in the favourable proportion, superimposed to a clear up-and-down trend synchronized with the switch between governments in Spring 2018, suggesting evidence of disorientation among the public. CONCLUSIONS: The reported evidence of disorientation for opinions expressed in online social media shows that critical health topics, such as vaccination, should never be used to achieve political consensus. This is worsened by the lack of a strong Italian institutional presence on Twitter, calling for efforts to contrast misinformation and the ensuing spread of hesitancy. It remains to be seen how this disorientation will impact future parents' vaccination decisions.

The impact of rotavirus vaccination in the prevalence of gastroenteritis and comorbidities among children after suboptimal rotavirus vaccines implementation in Taiwan: A population-based study.

ABSTRACT: In Taiwan, rotavirus vaccination was implemented in 2006 in the private sector. The population-based impact of rotavirus vaccination on gastroenteritis and comorbidities of children remains under-investigated.We analyzed the annual prevalence of rotavirus-related disease, including gastroenteritis, convulsions, epilepsy, type I diabetes mellitus, intussusception, and biliary atresia among children under 5 years of age. Data were collected from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, a nationwide population-based database. A 16-year retrospective cohort study was conducted between 2000 and 2015.Among children <5 years of age, the prevalence of gastroenteritis decreased after 2012 (44,259.69 per 100 thousands) and remained lower through 2015 (39,931.11per 100 thousands, P < .001). The prevalence of convulsions rose steadily and significantly from 2007 (775.90 per 100 thousands) to 2015 (962.17 per 100 thousands, P < .001). The prevalence of epilepsy decreased significantly until reaching a nadir in 2013 (from 501.56 to 293.53 per 100 thousands, P < .001). The prevalence of biliary atresia tended upward, and surged suddenly in 2007 with a peak in 2013 (18.74 per 100 thousands). Among infants (<1 year of age) from 2000 to 2015, the prevalence of gastroenteritis declined steadily, and more rapidly after 2007 (22,513 to 17,285 per 100 thousands).In Taiwan, after introducing rotavirus vaccination, gastroenteritis in young children decreased, especially in infancy. However, gastroenteritis is still common in children, given other emerging pathogens. Our results highlight the impact of rotavirus vaccines on children's health in Taiwan and provide indications for future preventive medicine and healthcare strategies in children.

Mobile nudges and financial incentives to improve coverage of timely neonatal vaccination in rural areas (GEVaP trial): A 3-armed cluster randomized controlled trial in Northern Ghana.

BACKGROUND: Despite progress in vaccination coverage, timeliness of childhood vaccination remains a challenge in many settings. We aimed to assess if mobile phone-based reminders and incentives to health workers and caregivers could increase timely neonatal vaccination in a rural, low-resource setting. METHODS: We conducted an open-label cluster randomized controlled 1:1:1 trial with three arms in 15 communities in Northern Ghana. Communities were randomized to 1) a voice call reminder intervention; 2) a community health volunteer (CHV) intervention with incentivized rewards; 3) control. In the voice call reminder arm, a study staff member made voice calls to mothers shortly after birth to encourage vaccination and provide personalized information about available vaccination services. In the incentive arm, CHVs promoted infant vaccination and informed women with recent births about available vaccination opportunities. Both CHVs and women were provided small monetary incentives for on-time early infant vaccination in this arm, delivered using mobile phone-based banking applications. No study activities were conducted in control communities. A population-based survey compared vaccination coverage across arms in the pre-intervention and intervention periods. The primary endpoint was completion of at least one dose of Polio vaccine within 14 days of life and BCG vaccination within 28 days of life. RESULTS: Six-hundred ninety births were identified; 106, 88, and 88 from pre-intervention and 150, 135, and 123 in the intervention period, in the control, voice call reminder and CHV incentive arms, respectively. In adjusted intent-to-treat analysis, voice call reminders were associated with 10.5 percentage point (95% CI: 4.0, 17.1) higher coverage of on-time vaccination, while mobile phone-based incentives were associated with 49.5 percentage point (95% CI: 26.4, 72.5) higher coverage. CONCLUSION: Community-based interventions using mobile phone technologies can improve timely early vaccination coverage. A CHV approach with incentives to community workers and caregivers was a more effective strategy than voice call reminders. The impact of vaccination "nudges" via voice calls may be constrained in settings where network coverage and phone ownership are limited. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov; NCT03797950.

The global burden of yellow fever.

Yellow fever (YF) is a viral, vector-borne, haemorrhagic fever endemic in tropical regions of Africa and South America. The vaccine for YF is considered safe and effective, but intervention strategies need to be optimised; one of the tools for this is mathematical modelling. We refine and expand an existing modelling framework for Africa to account for transmission in South America. We fit to YF occurrence and serology data. We then estimate the subnational forces of infection for the entire endemic region. Finally, using demographic and vaccination data, we examine the impact of vaccination activities. We estimate that there were 109,000 (95% credible interval [CrI] [67,000-173,000]) severe infections and 51,000 (95% CrI [31,000-82,000]) deaths due to YF in Africa and South America in 2018. We find that mass vaccination activities in Africa reduced deaths by 47% (95% CrI [10%-77%]). This methodology allows us to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination and illustrates the need for continued vigilance and surveillance of YF.

Health and economic impact of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in hindering antimicrobial resistance in China.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a serious threat to global public health. However, vaccinations have been largely undervalued as a method to hinder AMR progression. This study examined the AMR impact of increasing pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) coverage in China. China has one of the world's highest rates of antibiotic use and low PCV coverage. We developed an agent-based DREAMR (Dynamic Representation of the Economics of AMR) model to examine the health and economic benefits of slowing AMR against commonly used antibiotics. We simulated PCV coverage, pneumococcal infections, antibiotic use, and AMR accumulation. Four antibiotics to treat pneumococcal diseases (penicillin, amoxicillin, third-generation cephalosporins, and meropenem) were modeled with antibiotic utilization, pharmacokinetics, and pharmacodynamics factored into predicting AMR accumulation. Three PCV coverage scenarios were simulated over 5 y: 1) status quo with no change in coverage, 2) scaled coverage increase to 99% in 5 y, and 3) accelerated coverage increase to 85% over 2 y followed by 3 y to reach 99% coverage. Compared to the status quo, we found that AMR against penicillin, amoxicillin, and third-generation cephalosporins was significantly reduced by 6.6%, 10.9%, and 9.8% in the scaled scenario and by 10.5%, 17.0%, and 15.4% in the accelerated scenario. Cumulative costs due to AMR, including direct and indirect costs to patients and caretakers, were reduced by $371 million in the scaled and $586 million in the accelerated scenarios compared to the status quo. AMR-reducing benefits of vaccines are essential to quantify in order to drive appropriate investment.

[Ebola, the first vaccines available]. / Ebola, des premiers vaccins disponibles.

In the recent years, Ebola virus has been responsible for several major epidemics. Research efforts have allowed the development and evaluation in the field of several vaccine candidates. At present, two of them are already approved and used in the fight against the virus in the Democratic Republic of Congo. This review aims to describe the different candidates, the clinical trials that have been conducted as well as the first results in the field.

TITLE: Ebola, des premiers vaccins disponibles. ABSTRACT: Ces dernières années, le virus Ebola a été responsable d'épidémies de grande ampleur. Les efforts de recherche ont permis la mise au point et l'évaluation sur le terrain de plusieurs candidats vaccins. À l'heure actuelle, deux sont déjà homologués et utilisés dans la lutte contre le virus en République démocratique du Congo. Cette revue se propose de faire le point sur les différents candidats vaccins, les essais cliniques qui ont été menés et les premiers résultats de terrain.

The impact of a prolonged ebola outbreak on measles elimination activities in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014-2015.

INTRODUCTION: Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia have attained significant reduction in measles incidence between 2004 and 2013. The Ebola outbreak in 2014-2015 in West Africa caused significant disruption of the health service delivery in the three worst affected countries. The magnitude of the impact on the immunization program has not been well documented. METHODS: We reviewed national routine immunization administrative coverage data as well as measles surveillance performance and measles epidemiology in the years before, during and after the EVD outbreak in Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone. RESULTS: Both Liberia and Guinea experienced a sharp decline of more than 25% in the monthly number of children vaccinated against measles in 2014 and 2015 as compared to the previous years, while there was no reported decline in Sierra Leone. Guinea and Liberia experienced a decline in measles surveillance activity and performance indicators in 2014 and 2015. During this period, there was an increase in measles incidence and a decline in the mean age of measles cases reported in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Guinea started reporting high measles incidence in 2016. All three countries organized measles supplemental immunization activities by June 2015. Liberia achieved 99% administrative coverage, while Guinea and Sierra Leone attained 90.6% and 97.2% coverage respectively. There were no severe adverse events reported during these mass vaccination activities. The disruptive effect of the Ebola outbreak on immunization services was especially evident in Guinea and Liberia. Our review of the reported administrative vaccination coverage at national level does not show significant decline in measles first dose vaccination coverage in Sierra Leone as compared to other reports. This may be due to inaccuracies in coverage monitoring and data quality problems. The increases in measles transmission and incidence in these three countries can be explained by the rapid accumulation of susceptible children. Despite the organization of mass vaccination activities, measles incidence through 2017 has remained higher than the pre-Ebola period in all three countries. CONCLUSION: The Ebola outbreak in West Africa significantly affected measles vaccination coverage rates in two of the three worst affected countries, and led to persistent gaps in coverage, along with high measles incidence that was documented until two years after the end of the Ebola outbreak. Liberia and Sierra Leone have demonstrated coverage improvements after the end of the Ebola outbreak.

Assessing the incremental costs and savings of introducing electronic immunization registries and stock management systems: evidence from the better immunization data initiative in Tanzania and Zambia.

INTRODUCTION: Poor data quality and use have been identified as key challenges that negatively impact immunization programs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In addition, many LMICs have a shortage of health personnel, and staff available have demanding workloads across several health programs. In order to address these challenges, the Better Immunization Data (BID) Initiative introduced a comprehensive suite of interventions, including an electronic immunization registry aimed at improving the quality, reliability, and use of immunization data in Arusha Region, Tanzania, and Southern Province of Zambia. The objective of this study was to assess the incremental costs of implementing the BID interventions in immunization programs in these two countries. METHODS: We conducted a micro-costing study to estimate the economic costs of service delivery and logistics for the immunization programs with and without the BID interventions in a sample of health facilities and district program offices in each country. Structured questionnaires were used to interview immunization program staff at baseline and post-intervention to assess annual resource utilization and costs. Cost outcomes were reported as annual cost per facility, cost per district and changes in resource costs due to the BID interventions (i.e., costs associated with health worker time, start-up costs, etc.). Sub-group analyses were conducted by health facility to assess variation in costs by volume served and location (rural versus urban). One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to identify influential parameters. Costs were reported in 2017 US dollars. RESULTS: In Tanzania, the average annual reduction in resource costs was estimated at US$10,236 (95% confidence interval: $7,606-$14,123) per health facility, while the average annual reduction in resource costs per district was estimated at $6,542. In Zambia, reductions in resource costs were modest at an estimated annual average of $628 (95% confidence interval: $209-$1,467) per health facility and $236 per district. Resource cost reductions were mainly attributable to reductions in time required for immunization service delivery and reporting. One-way sensitivity analyses identified key cost drivers, all related to reductions in health worker time. CONCLUSION: The introduction of electronic immunization registries and stock management systems through the BID Initiative was estimated to result in potential time savings in both countries. Health worker time was the area most impacted by the interventions, suggesting that time savings gained could be utilized for patient care. Information generated through this work provides evidence to inform stakeholder decision-making for scale-up of the BID interventions in Tanzania and Zambia and to inform other Low-to-Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) interested in similar interventions.