Last-mile delivery increases vaccine uptake in Sierra Leone.

Less than 30% of people in Africa received a dose of the COVID-19 vaccine even 18 months after vaccine development1. Here, motivated by the observation that residents of remote, rural areas of Sierra Leone faced severe access difficulties2, we conducted an intervention with last-mile delivery of doses and health professionals to the most inaccessible areas, along with community mobilization. A cluster randomized controlled trial in 150 communities showed that this intervention with mobile vaccination teams increased the immunization rate by about 26 percentage points within 48-72 h. Moreover, auxiliary populations visited our community vaccination points, which more than doubled the number of inoculations administered. The additional people vaccinated per intervention site translated to an implementation cost of US $33 per person vaccinated. Transportation to reach remote villages accounted for a large share of total intervention costs. Therefore, bundling multiple maternal and child health interventions in the same visit would further reduce costs per person treated. Current research on vaccine delivery maintains a large focus on individual behavioural issues such as hesitancy. Our study demonstrates that prioritizing mobile services to overcome access difficulties faced by remote populations in developing countries can generate increased returns in terms of uptake of health services3.

Benefit-cost analysis of coordinated strategies for control of rabies in Africa.

Previous research suggests that dog mass vaccination campaigns can eliminate rabies locally, resulting in large human and animal life gains. Despite these demonstrated benefits, dog vaccination programs remain scarce on the African continent. We conducted a benefit-cost analysis to demonstrate that engaging into vaccination campaigns is the dominant strategy for most countries even in the absence of coordinated action between them. And quantify how coordinated policy measures across countries in Africa could impact rabies incidence and associated costs. We show that coordinated dog mass vaccination between countries and PEP would lead to the elimination of dog rabies in Africa with total welfare gains of USD 9.5 billion (95% CI: 8.1 - 11.4 billion) between 2024 and 2054 (30 years). Coordinated disease control between African countries can lead to more socially and ecologically equitable outcomes by reducing the number of lost human lives to almost zero and possibly eliminating rabies.

The role of childrens' vaccination for COVID-19-Pareto-optimal allocations of vaccines.

COVID-19 vaccines have been approved for children of age five and older in many countries. However, there is an ongoing debate as to whether children should be vaccinated and at what priority. In this work, we use mathematical modeling and optimization to study how vaccine allocations to different age groups effect epidemic outcomes. In particular, we consider the effect of extending vaccination campaigns to include the vaccination of children. When vaccine availability is limited, we consider Pareto-optimal allocations with respect to competing measures of the number of infections and mortality and systematically study the trade-offs among them. In the scenarios considered, when some weight is given to the number of infections, we find that it is optimal to allocate vaccines to adolescents in the age group 10-19, even when they are assumed to be less susceptible than adults. We further find that age group 0-9 is included in the optimal allocation for sufficiently high values of the basic reproduction number.

Optimal vaccine allocation for COVID-19 in the Netherlands: A data-driven prioritization.

For the control of COVID-19, vaccination programmes provide a long-term solution. The amount of available vaccines is often limited, and thus it is crucial to determine the allocation strategy. While mathematical modelling approaches have been used to find an optimal distribution of vaccines, there is an excessively large number of possible allocation schemes to be simulated. Here, we propose an algorithm to find a near-optimal allocation scheme given an intervention objective such as minimization of new infections, hospitalizations, or deaths, where multiple vaccines are available. The proposed principle for allocating vaccines is to target subgroups with the largest reduction in the outcome of interest. We use an approximation method to reconstruct the age-specific transmission intensity (the next generation matrix), and express the expected impact of vaccinating each subgroup in terms of the observed incidence of infection and force of infection. The proposed approach is firstly evaluated with a simulated epidemic and then applied to the epidemiological data on COVID-19 in the Netherlands. Our results reveal how the optimal allocation depends on the objective of infection control. In the case of COVID-19, if we wish to minimize deaths, the optimal allocation strategy is not efficient for minimizing other outcomes, such as infections. In simulated epidemics, an allocation strategy optimized for an outcome outperforms other strategies such as the allocation from young to old, from old to young, and at random. Our simulations clarify that the current policy in the Netherlands (i.e., allocation from old to young) was concordant with the allocation scheme that minimizes deaths. The proposed method provides an optimal allocation scheme, given routine surveillance data that reflect ongoing transmissions. This approach to allocation is useful for providing plausible simulation scenarios for complex models, which give a more robust basis to determine intervention strategies.

Mathematical Modeling of Endemic Cholera Transmission.

Mathematical modeling can be used to project the impact of mass vaccination on cholera transmission. Here, we discuss 2 examples for which indirect protection from mass vaccination needs to be considered. In the first, we show that nonvaccinees can be protected by mass vaccination campaigns. This additional benefit of indirect protection improves the cost-effectiveness of mass vaccination. In the second, we model the use of mass vaccination to eliminate cholera. In this case, a high population level of immunity, including contributions from infection and vaccination, is required to reach the "herd immunity" threshold needed to stop transmission and achieve elimination.

Time-varying optimization of COVID-19 vaccine prioritization in the context of limited vaccination capacity.

Dynamically adapting the allocation of COVID-19 vaccines to the evolving epidemiological situation could be key to reduce COVID-19 burden. Here we developed a data-driven mechanistic model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to explore optimal vaccine prioritization strategies in China. We found that a time-varying vaccination program (i.e., allocating vaccines to different target groups as the epidemic evolves) can be highly beneficial as it is capable of simultaneously achieving different objectives (e.g., minimizing the number of deaths and of infections). Our findings suggest that boosting the vaccination capacity up to 2.5 million first doses per day (0.17% rollout speed) or higher could greatly reduce COVID-19 burden, should a new wave start to unfold in China with reproduction number ≤1.5. The highest priority categories are consistent under a broad range of assumptions. Finally, a high vaccination capacity in the early phase of the vaccination campaign is key to achieve large gains of strategic prioritizations.

Mobile nudges and financial incentives to improve coverage of timely neonatal vaccination in rural areas (GEVaP trial): A 3-armed cluster randomized controlled trial in Northern Ghana.

BACKGROUND: Despite progress in vaccination coverage, timeliness of childhood vaccination remains a challenge in many settings. We aimed to assess if mobile phone-based reminders and incentives to health workers and caregivers could increase timely neonatal vaccination in a rural, low-resource setting. METHODS: We conducted an open-label cluster randomized controlled 1:1:1 trial with three arms in 15 communities in Northern Ghana. Communities were randomized to 1) a voice call reminder intervention; 2) a community health volunteer (CHV) intervention with incentivized rewards; 3) control. In the voice call reminder arm, a study staff member made voice calls to mothers shortly after birth to encourage vaccination and provide personalized information about available vaccination services. In the incentive arm, CHVs promoted infant vaccination and informed women with recent births about available vaccination opportunities. Both CHVs and women were provided small monetary incentives for on-time early infant vaccination in this arm, delivered using mobile phone-based banking applications. No study activities were conducted in control communities. A population-based survey compared vaccination coverage across arms in the pre-intervention and intervention periods. The primary endpoint was completion of at least one dose of Polio vaccine within 14 days of life and BCG vaccination within 28 days of life. RESULTS: Six-hundred ninety births were identified; 106, 88, and 88 from pre-intervention and 150, 135, and 123 in the intervention period, in the control, voice call reminder and CHV incentive arms, respectively. In adjusted intent-to-treat analysis, voice call reminders were associated with 10.5 percentage point (95% CI: 4.0, 17.1) higher coverage of on-time vaccination, while mobile phone-based incentives were associated with 49.5 percentage point (95% CI: 26.4, 72.5) higher coverage. CONCLUSION: Community-based interventions using mobile phone technologies can improve timely early vaccination coverage. A CHV approach with incentives to community workers and caregivers was a more effective strategy than voice call reminders. The impact of vaccination "nudges" via voice calls may be constrained in settings where network coverage and phone ownership are limited. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov; NCT03797950.

COVID-19 and Preparing Planetary Health for Future Ecological Crises: Hopes from Glycomics for Vaccine Innovation.

A key lesson emerging from COVID-19 is that pandemic proofing planetary health against future ecological crises calls for systems science and preventive medicine innovations. With greater proximity of the human and animal natural habitats in the 21st century, it is also noteworthy that zoonotic infections such as COVID-19 that jump from animals to humans are increasingly plausible in the coming decades. In this context, glycomics technologies and the third alphabet of life, the sugar code, offer veritable prospects to move omics systems science from discovery to diverse applications of relevance to global public health and preventive medicine. In this expert review, we discuss the science of glycomics, its importance in vaccine development, and the recent progress toward discoveries on the sugar code that can help prevent future infectious outbreaks that are looming on the horizon in the 21st century. Glycomics offers veritable prospects to boost planetary health, not to mention the global scientific capacity for vaccine innovation against novel and existing infectious agents.

Stemming cholera tides in Zimbabwe through mass vaccination.

BACKGROUND: In 2018, Zimbabwe declared another major cholera outbreak a decade after recording one of the worst cholera outbreaks in Africa. METHODS: A mathematical model for cholera was used to estimate the magnitude of the cholera outbreak and vaccination coverage using cholera cases reported data. A Markov chain Monte Carlo method based on a Bayesian framework was used to fit the model in order to estimate the basic reproductive number and required vaccination coverage for cholera control. RESULTS: The results showed that the outbreak had a basic reproductive number of 1.82 (95% credible interval [CrI] 1.53-2.11) and required vaccination coverage of at least 58% (95% Crl 45-68%) to be contained using an oral cholera vaccine of 78% efficacy. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that a vaccine with at least 55% efficacy was sufficient to contain the outbreak but at higher coverage of 75% (95% Crl 58-88%). However, high-efficacy vaccines would greatly reduce the required coverage, with 100% efficacy vaccine reducing coverage to 45% (95% Crl 35-53%). CONCLUSIONS: These findings reinforce the crucial need for oral cholera vaccines to control cholera in Zimbabwe, considering that the decay of water reticulation and sewerage infrastructure is unlikely to be effectively addressed in the coming years.

Assessing the incremental costs and savings of introducing electronic immunization registries and stock management systems: evidence from the better immunization data initiative in Tanzania and Zambia.

INTRODUCTION: Poor data quality and use have been identified as key challenges that negatively impact immunization programs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In addition, many LMICs have a shortage of health personnel, and staff available have demanding workloads across several health programs. In order to address these challenges, the Better Immunization Data (BID) Initiative introduced a comprehensive suite of interventions, including an electronic immunization registry aimed at improving the quality, reliability, and use of immunization data in Arusha Region, Tanzania, and Southern Province of Zambia. The objective of this study was to assess the incremental costs of implementing the BID interventions in immunization programs in these two countries. METHODS: We conducted a micro-costing study to estimate the economic costs of service delivery and logistics for the immunization programs with and without the BID interventions in a sample of health facilities and district program offices in each country. Structured questionnaires were used to interview immunization program staff at baseline and post-intervention to assess annual resource utilization and costs. Cost outcomes were reported as annual cost per facility, cost per district and changes in resource costs due to the BID interventions (i.e., costs associated with health worker time, start-up costs, etc.). Sub-group analyses were conducted by health facility to assess variation in costs by volume served and location (rural versus urban). One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to identify influential parameters. Costs were reported in 2017 US dollars. RESULTS: In Tanzania, the average annual reduction in resource costs was estimated at US$10,236 (95% confidence interval: $7,606-$14,123) per health facility, while the average annual reduction in resource costs per district was estimated at $6,542. In Zambia, reductions in resource costs were modest at an estimated annual average of $628 (95% confidence interval: $209-$1,467) per health facility and $236 per district. Resource cost reductions were mainly attributable to reductions in time required for immunization service delivery and reporting. One-way sensitivity analyses identified key cost drivers, all related to reductions in health worker time. CONCLUSION: The introduction of electronic immunization registries and stock management systems through the BID Initiative was estimated to result in potential time savings in both countries. Health worker time was the area most impacted by the interventions, suggesting that time savings gained could be utilized for patient care. Information generated through this work provides evidence to inform stakeholder decision-making for scale-up of the BID interventions in Tanzania and Zambia and to inform other Low-to-Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) interested in similar interventions.

The projected impact of geographic targeting of oral cholera vaccination in sub-Saharan Africa: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Cholera causes an estimated 100,000 deaths annually worldwide, with the majority of burden reported in sub-Saharan Africa. In May 2018, the World Health Assembly committed to reducing worldwide cholera deaths by 90% by 2030. Oral cholera vaccine (OCV) plays a key role in reducing the near-term risk of cholera, although global supplies are limited. Characterizing the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of mass OCV deployment strategies is critical for setting expectations and developing cholera control plans that maximize the chances of success. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We compared the projected impacts of vaccination campaigns across sub-Saharan Africa from 2018 through 2030 when targeting geographically according to historical cholera burden and risk factors. We assessed the number of averted cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years and the cost-effectiveness of these campaigns with models that accounted for direct and indirect vaccine effects and population projections over time. Under current vaccine supply projections, an approach optimized to targeting by historical burden is projected to avert 828,971 (95% CI 803,370-859,980) cases (equivalent to 34.0% of projected cases; 95% CI 33.2%-34.8%). An approach that balances logistical feasibility with targeting historical burden is projected to avert 617,424 (95% CI 599,150-643,891) cases. In contrast, approaches optimized for targeting locations with limited access to water and sanitation are projected to avert 273,939 (95% CI 270,319-277,002) and 109,817 (95% CI 103,735-114,110) cases, respectively. We find that the most logistically feasible targeting strategy costs US$1,843 (95% CI 1,328-14,312) per DALY averted during this period and that effective geographic targeting of OCV campaigns can have a greater impact on cost-effectiveness than improvements to vaccine efficacy and moderate increases in coverage. Although our modeling approach does not project annual changes in baseline cholera risk or directly incorporate immunity from natural cholera infection, our estimates of the relative performance of different vaccination strategies should be robust to these factors. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that geographic targeting substantially improves the cost-effectiveness and impact of oral cholera vaccination campaigns. Districts with the poorest access to improved water and sanitation are not the same as districts with the greatest historical cholera incidence. While OCV campaigns can improve cholera control in the near term, without rapid progress in developing water and sanitation services or dramatic increases in OCV supply, our results suggest that vaccine use alone is unlikely to allow us to achieve the 2030 goal.

Improving child immunisation rates in a disadvantaged community in New South Wales, Australia: a process evaluation for research translation.

The World Health Organization's Tailoring Immunization Programmes approach was used to develop a new strategy to increase child vaccination coverage in a disadvantaged community in New South Wales, Australia, including reminders, outreach and home visiting. After 18 months, the strategy hasn't been fully implemented. A process evaluation was conducted to identify barriers and facilitators for research translation. Participants included child health nurses, Population Health staff, managers and general practitioners. The Capability-Opportunity-Motivation model of behaviour change (COM-B) was used to develop questions. Twenty-four participants took part in three focus groups and four interviews. Five themes emerged: (i) designing and adopting new ways of working is time-consuming and requires new skills, new ways of thinking and changes in service delivery; (ii) genuine engagement and interaction across fields and institutions helps build capacity and strengthen motivation; (iii) implementation of a new strategy requires clarity; who's doing what, when and how?; (iv) it is important not to lose sight of research findings related to the needs of disadvantaged families; and (v) trust in the process and perseverance are fundamental. There was strong motivation and opportunity for change, but a need to enhance service capability. Areas requiring support and resources were identified.

Logistics of Implementing a Large-scale Typhoid Vaccine Trial in Kathmandu, Nepal.

Typhoid fever is estimated to affect over 20 million people per year worldwide, with infants, children, and adolescents in south-central and southeast Asia experiencing the greatest burden of disease. The Typhoid Vaccine Acceleration Consortium (TyVAC) aims to support the introduction of typhoid conjugate vaccines into Gavi-eligible countries in an effort to reduce morbidity and mortality from typhoid. TyVAC-Nepal is a large-scale, participant- and observer-blind, individually randomized, controlled trial evaluating the efficacy of a newly developed typhoid conjugate vaccine in an urban setting in Nepal. In order to effectively deliver the trial, a number of key elements required meticulous planning. Public engagement strategies were considered early, and involved the implementation of a tiered approach. Approximately 300 staff were employed and trained in order to achieve the mass vaccination of 20 000 children aged 9 months to ≤16 years old over a 4-month period. There were 19 vaccination clinics established across the Lalitpur metropolitan city in the Kathmandu valley. Participants will be followed for 2 years post-vaccination to measure the rate reduction of blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever in the vaccination arm as compared to the control arm. The experience of conducting this large-scale vaccine trial suggests that comprehensive planning, continuous monitoring, and an ability to adapt plans in response to feedback are key.

Analysis of a meningococcal meningitis outbreak in Niger - potential effectiveness of reactive prophylaxis.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal epidemics of bacterial meningitis in the African Meningitis Belt carry a high burden of disease and mortality. Reactive mass vaccination is used as a control measure during epidemics, but the time taken to gain immunity from the vaccine reduces the flexibility and effectiveness of these campaigns. Targeted reactive antibiotic prophylaxis could be used to supplement reactive mass vaccination and further reduce the incidence of meningitis, and the potential effectiveness and efficiency of these strategies should be explored. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data from an outbreak of meningococcal meningitis in Niger, caused primarily by Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C, is used to estimate clustering of meningitis cases at the household and village level. In addition, reactive antibiotic prophylaxis and reactive vaccination strategies are simulated to estimate their potential effectiveness and efficiency, with a focus on the threshold and spatial unit used to declare an epidemic and initiate the intervention. There is village-level clustering of suspected meningitis cases after an epidemic has been declared in a health area. Risk of suspected meningitis among household contacts of a suspected meningitis case is no higher than among members of the same village. Village-wide antibiotic prophylaxis can target subsequent cases in villages: across of range of parameters pertaining to how the intervention is performed, up to 220/672 suspected cases during the season are potentially preventable. On the other hand, household prophylaxis targets very few cases. In general, the village-wide strategy is not very sensitive to the method used to declare an epidemic. Finally, village-wide antibiotic prophylaxis is potentially more efficient than mass vaccination of all individuals at the beginning of the season, and than the equivalent reactive vaccination strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Village-wide antibiotic prophylaxis should be considered and tested further as a response against outbreaks of meningococcal meningitis in the Meningitis Belt, as a supplement to reactive mass vaccination.

Assessment of herd effects among women and heterosexual men after girls-only HPV16/18 vaccination in the Netherlands: A repeated cross-sectional study.

Data on the impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination on the population HPV prevalence are largely obtained from women. We assessed the impact of the girls-only HPV16/18 vaccination program in the Netherlands that started in 2009, on trends in HPV prevalence among women and heterosexual men, using data from the PASSYON study. In this cross-sectional study, the HPV prevalence among 16- to 24-year-old visitors to sexually transmitted infection clinics was assessed in 2009, 2011, 2013, and 2015. We compared the genital postvaccination HPV prevalence with the prevaccination prevalence (2009) using Poisson GEE models. In total, we included 4,996 women and 1,901 heterosexual men. The percentage of women who reported to be vaccinated increased from 2.3% in 2009 to 37% in 2015. Among all women, the HPV16/18 prevalence decreased from 23% prevaccination to 15% in 2015 (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] 0.62, ptrend < 0.01). Among heterosexual men, the HPV16/18 prevalence decreased from 17% prevaccination to 11% in 2015 (aPR 0.52, ptrend < 0.01). Of the heterosexual men with a steady partner, HPV16/18 prevalence was lower among those whose steady partner had been vaccine-eligible in the national immunization program (aPR 0.13). Among unvaccinated women, the HPV16/18 prevalence in 2015 was not different from prevaccination. The decreasing HPV16/18 prevalence among heterosexual men and the reduced HPV16/18 prevalence among heterosexual men with a vaccine-eligible steady partner strongly suggests herd protection from girls-only vaccination. Absence of notable herd effects among unvaccinated women 6 years postvaccination may be due to the moderate vaccine uptake among girls in the Netherlands.

Cost Effectiveness of Meningococcal Serogroup B Vaccination in College-Aged Young Adults.

INTRODUCTION: Neisseria meningitidis serogroup B is the most common form of meningococcal infection in young adults in the U.S. Vaccines have recently become available, but it is not clear that the benefits outweigh the costs. The purpose of this study was to assess cost effectiveness and determine potentially favorable conditions for universal vaccination. METHODS: Costs and benefits of universal vaccination at college entry versus no universal vaccination with an outbreak response were estimated in 2018 in the context of a mid-sized U.S.-based 4-year college from both a health sector and a societal perspective. Probability, cost, and utility data were obtained from the published literature. Costs (2015 U.S.$) and benefits were discounted at 3%. One-way and multivariable probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed including variations in the specific vaccine used. Further testing of the model's parameters at extremes was used to identify favorable conditions for universal vaccination. RESULTS: The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year gained with universal vaccination was $13.9 million under the health sector perspective and $13.8 million under the societal perspective, each perspective was compared with a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000 per quality-adjusted life year. Multivariable probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that universal vaccination was not the preferred strategy for <$15 million per quality-adjusted life year. Under an extremely favorable model, a universal vaccination strategy became cost effective for vaccine series costing <$65. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that universal vaccination at college entry is not cost effective. The rarity of N. meningitidis serogroup B contributes to the lack of cost effectiveness for universal vaccination.